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Title: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: deine mudder on January 21, 2015, 07:16:00 AM Bearwhale is an urban legend. What you see is the normal free market. No manipulation to the downside just the impact of the new mined coins being dumped every day.
If there was manipulation in the market it has always only been to the upside. I dismiss the bearwhale-theory as an urban legend. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: rebuilder on January 21, 2015, 07:18:23 AM You didn't see the 30,000 BTC ask wall when it was put up, did you?
Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: MemoryShock on January 21, 2015, 07:24:35 AM Bearwhale is an urban legend. What you see is the normal free market. No manipulation to the downside just the impact of the new mined coins being dumped every day. If there was manipulation in the market it has always only been to the upside. I dismiss the bearwhale-theory as an urban legend. It's not a theory. It was a meme inspired by a very real (and documented) 30,000 BTC sell wall that was put up several months ago. The community bought it up and the meme was born. It doesn't need to happen every time there is a price movement down for the occurrence to have been real. With all due respect, I think that you are posting this in an effort to 'dare' it to happen again. Unfortunately, that is not how the market works. On a side note...despite the fact that we have the internet and can reference the occurrence in detail...I do think that it could become an urban legend at some point in the future. That really depends on where BTC goes...because the story is cool and won't not ever be cool. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: Mervyn_Pumpkinhead on January 21, 2015, 07:26:50 AM You didn't see the 30,000 BTC ask wall when it was put up, did you? I personally think that the 30k wall was put up and bought by the same people. This show was probably a desperate attempt to build some upwards momentum, to get the price out of the steady decline. The goal was to build confidence on the market that there is a strong demand on sub 300 prices. The truth revealed itself after this little show was over. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: deine mudder on January 21, 2015, 07:30:25 AM Sure maybe one-time 30k seller can have occured but that's also 'normal free market action' and no manipulation to the downside like 'the bearwhale' implies.
Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: sgk on January 21, 2015, 07:37:11 AM Sure maybe one-time 30k seller can have occured but that's also 'normal free market action' and no manipulation to the downside like 'the bearwhale' implies. nobody says the 'Bearwhale' implies manipulation. It just means someone owned 30,000 BTC (hence the term 'whale') but was 'bear' enough to sell them at the lowest prices at the time. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: Mellnik on January 21, 2015, 07:39:55 AM Don't believe anyone who calls themself "Your mother" ;D
Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: deine mudder on January 21, 2015, 07:44:51 AM Don't believe anyone who calls themself "Your mother" ;D Sorry i don't wear suit and ties. ::) Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: Q7 on January 21, 2015, 08:08:56 AM Then how do you explain the more than 40% price drop in just a 2 weeks time span. Considering the size of bitcoin market cap, you need sizable fund coming from somewhere to drive down the price so quick and so fast.
Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: deine mudder on January 21, 2015, 08:12:25 AM Then how do you explain the more than 40% price drop in just a 2 weeks time span. Considering the size of bitcoin market cap, you need sizable fund coming from somewhere to drive down the price so quick and so fast. Free market had enough after the exponential trend was broken. Inflationary pressure was too high, not enough new sheep buying. So panic happened. The last big drop IMO is simply the result of the inflation. People called it months in advance. No new money: price goes down fast I fail to see manipulation. I do not fail to see supply/demand is not in equilibrium. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: twiifm on January 21, 2015, 08:24:34 AM Then how do you explain the more than 40% price drop in just a 2 weeks time span. Considering the size of bitcoin market cap, you need sizable fund coming from somewhere to drive down the price so quick and so fast. Free market had enough after the exponential trend was broken. Inflationary pressure was too high, not enough new sheep buying. So panic happened. The last big drop IMO is simply the result of the inflation. People called it months in advance. No new money: price goes down fast I fail to see manipulation. I do not fail to see supply/demand is not in equilibrium. There was theory of willy bot manipulating price upwards. But I think this selling is just people getting fed up. Bubble burst Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: Ibian on January 21, 2015, 08:38:00 AM The top 100 and 500 addresses are growing. Not only are there bearwhales, they keep getting mightier.
And this nonsense about miners dumping needs to stop. It's not nearly enough for the kind of price drops we are seeing, even if all of it was getting dumped. Which it isn't. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: deine mudder on January 21, 2015, 08:47:13 AM The top 100 and 500 addresses are growing. Not only are there bearwhales, they keep getting mightier. And this nonsense about miners dumping needs to stop. It's not nearly enough for the kind of price drops we are seeing, even if all of it was getting dumped. Which it isn't. Yes, top adresses need to buy so pump their own ass. Logical. So the myth of the high inflation being important for distribution has been debunked with this too. After that theory has been debunked it could be safe to say Bitcoin is economically stupid with that much higher than necessary inflation. 3600 every day not enough to drop the price? So why do people think 30k like the auction or 19k like the bitstamp hack could influence price? After all it's only a week or two of mining. Son, you are actually underestimating those new coins' impact by several orders of magnitude. The inflation takes at these prices 5000$ from the market every 10 minutes!!! What do you think where that constant slow bleed is coming from? The 'bearwhale'? haha, no. It's from mining. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: Ibian on January 21, 2015, 09:12:39 AM I have no patience for newbies who think they know it all. Another thing that keeps growing is my ignore list.
Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: deine mudder on January 21, 2015, 09:14:00 AM I have no patience for newbies who think they know it all. Another thing that keeps growing is my ignore list. yes, isolationism and ad hominem arguments is the answer to everything Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: XCASH on January 21, 2015, 10:32:00 AM Then how do you explain the more than 40% price drop in just a 2 weeks time span. Considering the size of bitcoin market cap, you need sizable fund coming from somewhere to drive down the price so quick and so fast. Free market had enough after the exponential trend was broken. Inflationary pressure was too high, not enough new sheep buying. So panic happened. The last big drop IMO is simply the result of the inflation. People called it months in advance. No new money: price goes down fast I fail to see manipulation. I do not fail to see supply/demand is not in equilibrium. People guessed a single entity was crashing the price ages before the bear whale revealed himself. I guess the bear whale slowly dumped a hell of a lot of coins before putting up the 30,000 BTC ask wall. I guess there must be other whales as big as the bear whale. The other big holders panic selling one after the other could have contributed to the last crash. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: Morecoin Freeman on January 21, 2015, 11:07:08 AM Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: madmax6688 on January 21, 2015, 11:09:26 AM Did you make this? Really nicely done! Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: esse83 on January 21, 2015, 11:55:27 AM Hmm.. bearwhale does not show up in the financial list demanded by EU for any tx exceeding €30k in areas where there "is a greater probability of occurrence of money laundering or terrorist financing"* http://www.uppd.gov.si/si/delovna_podrocja/vsebinska_podrocja/objave_38_clen_zppdft/podatki_o_transakcijah_38_clen_zppdft/ -- Where you find the newest lists. http://www.uppd.gov.si/fileadmin/uppd.gov.si/pageuploads/NAKAZILA/Arhiv/nakazila_06012014.xls - The most up to date list * Google translate http://www.uppd.gov.si/si/delovna_podrocja/vsebinska_podrocja/objave_38_clen_zppdft/ edit: Actually I think I might have a good candidate for who bearwhale is even though the dates dont add up: 5496 10.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, BERMUDI 999 099 840 5495 10.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, BERMUDI 999 099 840 5494 10.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, BERMUDI 999 099 840 5493 10.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, BERMUDI 999 099 840 5492 10.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND. BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, BERMUDI 999 099 840 5491 10.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, BERMUDI 999 099 840 5490 10.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, BERMUDI 49 888 840 5489 10.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, BERMUDI 999 099 840 5449 04.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND EMERGING BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, MALTA 999 099 5397 02.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, MALTA 999 099 5396 02.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, MALTA 999 099 5395 02.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, MALTA 604 937 5394 02.12.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, MALTA 999 099 26.11.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, BERMUDI 999 099 25.11.2013 BITSTAMP LIMITED 5 JUPITER HOUSE CALLEVA PARK, ALDER, BERKSHIRE, VELIKA BRITANIJA BITCOIN SUB-FUND BERMUDA, HM DX HAMILTON, BERMUDI 999 099 So only in december those guys cashed out ~€11,6 million euro - and if we add late november we are at €13,6 million - about $16million dollars. Think its pretty obvious who has been in complete control of the price of bitcoin over at stamp ;) Both the pumps and dumps are lead by those guys - http://bitcoinfund.eu/ Nice timing getting out before stamp collapsed. edit: Jon Matonis wrote an article about bitcoinfund for forbes http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2013/03/08/first-bitcoin-hedge-fund-launches-from-malta/ - For those that don't know, he was the former executive director of bitcoin foundation. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: findftp on January 21, 2015, 12:08:48 PM Bearwhale is an urban legend. What you see is the normal free market. No manipulation to the downside just the impact of the new mined coins being dumped every day. If there was manipulation in the market it has always only been to the upside. I dismiss the bearwhale-theory as an urban legend. A bearwhale to me means a lot of little bears combined together. Once they know they are wrong, they will all go long again. Bears are afraid and just looking at each other waiting for the first move. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: azguard on January 23, 2015, 06:51:06 AM Bearwhale is an urban legend. What you see is the normal free market. No manipulation to the downside just the impact of the new mined coins being dumped every day. If there was manipulation in the market it has always only been to the upside. I dismiss the bearwhale-theory as an urban legend. A bearwhale to me means a lot of little bears combined together. Once they know they are wrong, they will all go long again. Bears are afraid and just looking at each other waiting for the first move. true like is real life of one goes other are to follow Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: DaRude on January 23, 2015, 07:07:20 AM The top 100 and 500 addresses are growing. Not only are there bearwhales, they keep getting mightier. And this nonsense about miners dumping needs to stop. It's not nearly enough for the kind of price drops we are seeing, even if all of it was getting dumped. Which it isn't. Yes they do i saw one ;D On a serious note, bearwhale is a whale (entity with lots of coins) who's a bear (who thinks they're overpriced and wants to sell them). So clearly they exist. What you seem to be implying is that there is no one entity that's "manipulating" the market. Not sure what you mean by manipulating exactly, but looking at the charts during the recent decline and the manner the coins were sold i'd speculate that it was mainly driven by one entity (and it very well might be the same entity that had that on 30k sell order). Whether it was manipulation or just someone turning bearish and cashing out is anyone's guess. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: DaRude on January 23, 2015, 07:09:08 AM The top 100 and 500 addresses are growing. Not only are there bearwhales, they keep getting mightier. And this nonsense about miners dumping needs to stop. It's not nearly enough for the kind of price drops we are seeing, even if all of it was getting dumped. Which it isn't. Yes they do i saw one ;D On a serious note, bearwhale is a whale (entity with lots of coins) who's a bear (who thinks they're overpriced and wants to sell them). So clearly they exist. What you seem to be implying is that there is no one entity that's "manipulating" the market. Not sure what you mean by manipulating exactly, but looking at the charts during the recent decline and the manner the coins were sold i'd speculate that it was mainly driven by one entity (and it very well might be the same entity that had that on 30k sell order). Whether it was manipulation or just someone turning bearish and cashing out is anyone's guess. As far as addresses growing if anything that implies a bull. A person buying up more coins, they'd be a bear if the balances went down and they were cashing out. Plus don't forget that majority of those are exchanges and business holding someone elses coins. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: gjgjg on January 24, 2015, 02:25:25 PM Doesn't actually take that much capital to push the btc market around, not compared to forex exchanges.
I see the hard push down as an excellent sign of assumed future rally so any market manipulators can push it down, buy in low then profit from subsequent rally. Anyway, point is that doesn't take much to be a bear whale in btc world, so I'm sure there's more than few around looking for cheap coinage Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: HarmonLi on January 25, 2015, 12:28:47 AM When there are single walls of multiple 10k of coins to be sold, on legitimate exchanges, it is some single entity who controls those coins. Whoever they may be, whatever their intentions I don't know, but if they put up such a big wall, they're a bearwhale!
Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: JimboToronto on January 25, 2015, 12:40:54 AM It was a meme inspired by a very real (and documented) 30,000 BTC sell wall that was put up several months ago. The community bought it up and the meme was born. Actually it has been around at least since the days of <$100 coins. Back at the time of the 30kBTC bearwhale in early October 2014, CNBC quoted a post with a picture of bullwhale defeating bearwhale from over a year ago. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: minerpumpkin on January 25, 2015, 12:47:13 AM Well, it exists in the way of someone possessing a very large number of coins. The ask walls on Bitstamp didn't come out of thin air, unless you suspect Bitstamp being behind it in some sort of manipulation-scheme or something...
Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: okthen on January 25, 2015, 02:04:47 AM All bears are temporary. They are mostly bulls who want more coins, otherwise they wouldn't have stuck around for such a long bearish market.
Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: JimboToronto on January 25, 2015, 02:11:48 AM All bears are temporary. They are mostly bulls who want more coins, otherwise they wouldn't have stuck around for such a long bearish market. Except for those with an axe to grind for ulterior motives, like paid trolls, bankers, or those like a certain CS prof who put his reputation on the line by calling for Bitcoin's failure. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: Brewins on January 25, 2015, 04:47:01 AM There are people with lots of coins around. Search the topic that has a list of big scams and thievery and you will see.
I suppose that hackers and thieves that stole lots of coins(Gox, Stamp, etc) would like to sell them one day, so by definition they are bearwhales Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: rosh on January 25, 2015, 10:06:19 AM All bears are temporary. They are mostly bulls who want more coins, otherwise they wouldn't have stuck around for such a long bearish market. The problem is they never seem to be satisfied. Otherwise, the market would have turned and we would have a roaring bull market by now. Title: Re: "Bearwhale" doesn't exist Post by: d5000 on January 25, 2015, 10:37:39 AM I partially agree with the thread starter, but it's more complex. Many miners accumulate coins when price is going up, but sell all mined coins when price is going down beyond a certain level. So miners are not only inflating the supply continuously but also inflating volatility.
That's the reason I'm following closely PoS (proof-of-stake) and PoB (proof-of-burn) altcoins (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=613213.0), which don't have this problem. Their volatility is not systematic but result of the low trade volume, frequent pump-and-dump activity and because most of them follow Bitcoin's price in a certain way. If one of them manages to rival Bitcon, it will be more stable, I guess. |
