Bitcoin Forum

I ordered a single from BFL just the other day. Just received the wire/bank transfer instructions.  After reading on here it really makes me hesitant to follow through with the payment because I really have no idea on what kind of daily return this thing could get. Is there anyone out there that could take a guess on what the approximate daily BTC payout the new single would get? If i'm only going to get a few dollars then this "hobby" i wanted to try may not be worth it at all. Seems like the same story, you have to have big money to begin with to make  big money. Only the real large rigs will ever make money and not let the little guy have a piece.  Rich getting richer, poorer getting poorer.  :)

Gotta be in it to win it.

This better gonna be a troll.

1TH/s costs $30,000
40GH/s costs $1,300

$30,000 / 1TH/s = $30/GH/s
$1,300 / 40GH/s = $32.5/GH/s

It's NOT a big difference on ROI comparing the large machines to the little ones.

Did you want to spend $1.5k and make $1.5mil ? ;D

First world problems.

That sounds like a good deal!! ;)

 ;DIn circuitboard layout a "mil" is 1/1000!

Opentoe: the only winning move for you is not to play.

There are so many greedy people out there that HATE to see new people jump in on this mining stuff cause it does cut into their profits. You can't hide making money programs forever and there are bound to be many more people jumping on the bandwagon as word gets out there more. It is quite strange though the type of feedback I have ever gotten on here. All the feedback/responses I have ever received were all of the bullish, sarcastic, negative type. Doesn't surprise me. When you mix anything to do with money you are certain to expect the "best" of people.  :)  Hey, I guess no one ever started out as a new user here and never had questions. They just popped out of the womb with their mining rig in hand, tracking BTC prices. Get laid more often, it does help people!

The problem is that the profitability is completely unknown. There are wild estimates all over the place, you would probably stumble on a few if you had a peek round the mining speculation section. No one really knows whether the price will go up or down, and although the consensus is that the difficulty will go up, it is unknown how much and how fast this will happen. Therefore, it is all but impossible to calculate returns. I would suggest that you break out a few calculators and your crystal ball.

Noted. Since nothing is in stone and really no one knows anything there sure are lots of people with already preconceived notions on what will happen. I guess these are the mind readers with working crystal balls. The last time I used my crystal ball I was in Atlantic City - NJ losing money. Ha.

That's not to say that you can't get an idea of future profitability, it just requires more work and more math and more complex models than most people are accustomed to using. The number of unknowns make it difficult to build a good risk/reward model to go off of.

We all started as newbs.  You draw a lot of the negative feedback yourself (at least from me) with comments like the "rich get rich, poor get poorer" garbage.  People with capital take risks.  You honestly expect to make as much money as someone like gigavps (who probably has 100x the amount invested in BTC)?   It's clear that you're in this for a quick buck - and that's it.  No questions about supporting Bitcoin or improving it, its "wherez my free moneeyz."

Your $1,300 investment won't arrive until October (if your lucky).  I suggested in my earlier post that you get out of the game now - its not a get-rich-quick scheme.  

Exactly this.

You can't expect to make the same amount as a guy who invests $30,000.  That would be completely asinine.  The poor only get poorer if they make poor decisions.  Which, most of them do, which is why they are poor.  I hate it when people state cliches like that.  If you want to be rich, then work at it, and become rich!  There isn't anything stopping you but yourself.

Have you ever sold on eBay?  Ever have to deal with a scammer on the crime syndicate know as eBay/Paypal.  I've only lost about $200 to those 2 horrible companies and if I don't ever see myself breaking even I would be happy if Bitcoin becomes that much more secure as a result of the distribution of ASIC.  Yes I am disappointed I can no longer get unlimited free high end video cards but having an alternative to Paypal to me is worth more than the $1350 (now almost $1500 USD with the BTC price increase) I shelled out for a SC Single.

Wow - who had preconceived notions exactly?

I just can't believe you would ask this question AFTER ordering. It just proves that you can't trust anyone to do due diligence, and in a zero sum game, people who make poorly informed decisions can really screw up any kind of predictions you're making. So ironically, you are the answer to your own question.

Anyone who mines (-especially- anyone who puts themselves into a position where they have to mine indefinitely to pay off their unresearched investment) is helping strengthen the security of the network. So no one who truly believes in bitcoin will begrudge any miner their network reward, even the other miners who are getting less. Full steam ahead!

what 40 GH/s could get daily?

Today, enough to buy a pack of pork sausages,

In 1 year's time, hardly enough to buy a bean.

I've got a pair of BFL Singles that run at a combined 1.6 GH and I make about 1 BTC per day from them total.

I'd expect 40 GH would get about 25 BTC per day today.

After ASICs have been out for awhile (6 months?) I'd guess 40 GH could produce about 1 BTC per day, since the cost of the 40 GH BFL SC Single is about the same as my pair of 800 MH Singles.

In other words, I'm thinking that the cost of the mining equipment will correlate to the amount of coins mined.

Nobody knows for sure, though.  Just a guess.

I agree with dave3. I started out slow in July 2011, learned from my mistakes and with a lot of help from people on this board. When I stopped mining my relatively small 10 GPU farm this past April I had earned ~550 bitcoin, which I havn't sold. Now my expectations for the one SC Single I have on order are much more tempered. Probably won't do any better than my GPU results over a similar timeframe and most of that will be front loaded.

I totally agree that one's expectations about the age of ASIC mining should be tempered. But from the way that people are piling in with orders, it seems that many are pretty much frothing at the mouth about it. I'm not sure about this, but it may be that we have already invested more in undelivered BFL hardware than we currently have invested in the equipment currently running the network. 

Given the ~22x increase in MH/$ going from BFL FPGA to BFL ASIC Single, the difficulty will likely increase 22x.

Given that BFL FPGA today makes ~0.5 BTC/day, the BFL Single ASIC should make ~1 BTC/day assuming no reward drop after the market stabilizes.

Unlikely. Current network hashrate is over 12 TH/s. More than 10 TH/s of this is probably due to GPUs.

That's roughly equivalent to ~33000 HD5830s who are the king of MH/$ of GPUs. So a lower bound on the $ invested in GPUs is currently $3.3 million USD.

OK, but according to this

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89685.0

we have at least 1640 orders so far. Out of those we know that 82 of them are for a total of 14.76 Th. That's 180 Gh/order. Assuming this is a representative sample (which of course it might not be), we have 1640x180=295 Th ordered so far. At $30,000/Th, this is $8.85 million. Now, this is most likely an overestimate. The sample we have may not be representative, and some of the 1640 orders surely have been cancelled. But even if this estimate is off by a factor of 2, this is still $4.4 million. Of course, these estimates include the $ value of trade-ins, which is $ that are already in the network. But my statement was just about the $ invested in the current network vs $ invested in undelivered ASICs (including trade-ins). So I don't think my statement is all that unlikely, though as I said, it's not something I put forward as being really certain.

In today's difficulty, those first deploy the ASIC SC single will get about 20 BTC per day, but after a while it will drop quickly, back to 2 BTC per day maybe. Actually BFL is really good at making the pricing for their equipment, targeting a ROI time frame of about 6-12 months

The inherent character of BTC is racing,  if you are not the first one with good hashing power in the first several hours, then your return will drop quickly

Another problem is that BTC system still rewards the richer, if you can get a 10 million $ loan, you can compromise the whole system with ASIC farms, sadly that means decentralization is always in danger, technically/financially there will always be a winner, but that maybe is the truth on this planet, winner take it all, losers can work much harder than winner, but they won't change the landscape