Bitcoin Forum

The Gemini exchange and ETF  seems to be just around the corner!

Time to speculate how much money will be pouring into the system and wear seat belts for the takeoff  to moon

it's so much good news i expect a crash down to 25 cents... at least that seems to be the pattern

It's getting bitcoin positive press too, which is novel at the moment!
I wouldn't expect too much industrial investor money, it is still high risk and high volatility for private investors I think we will see an increase.

The site is fake so... Yea... None... To answer your question.

news is real mate: http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2015/01/22/winklevoss-twins-aim-to-take-bitcoin-mainstream-with-a-regulated-exchange/

for now none.

We need at least to convince people it is not fake and investors need to see it is really going to happens, not only another project that always stays in planning phase

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2015/01/23/business/23BITCOIN/23BITCOIN-blog480.jpg

They're getting old :D time speeds up lately.

Well... officially it would be (nearly) 0.
And the unofficial amounts we never knew and will never know.

Much less than you'd expect, however, because the altcoin market can also be seen as a potential investment, maybe even better than bitcoin. Sorry if this hurts the self-esteem of some bitcoiners..

As much as are interested in investing in a high risk ETF. Remember WE are the price that any Bitcoin derivative is following. It will legitimize the markets greatly.

Be careful what you wish for. ;)
The relationship between derivatives and the "underlying asset" is complex but, although it might seem counter intuitive, derivatives can definitely affect the volatility and price of the "real" market they are supposed to be tracking.
Involvement with the Derivatives Industry will mean they will demand minimum standards for bitcoin's exchange infrastructure.
They will want to make sure that if anybody is manipulating prices, it's them.
This is a Dance with the Devil imo. Remember even Warren Buffet, everyone's favorite, called Derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction".

Bringing bitcoin manipulation to a much larger audience  :P

All of it... all the money  ;)

Or none of it. Who knows :))

if this really happens, will be very positive sure, and bitcoin will further expand

Everything with value and option to trade is being manipulated for hundreds of years.

Nothing will change, that's how everything works in an economy.

I only hope at one day we will have a stable price without large swings.

When you say pouring in, I'm sure that's not directly buying into bitcoin per se. What they are investing in is similar like any other business venture, and they are only concerned about the profit of a company they have invested in.... Whether it is earning either in fiat or btc. I would like to be optimistic but let's see what impact it has on the price.

ALL altcoins have slowly been bleeding out since early 2014.
You shouldn't expect to be taken seriously with a sentence like that ;)

Also consider, none of these investors are getting into bitcoin. At best they get involved with companies that deal with the bitcoin ecosystem. So it won't affect the price at all.

So you assume the market is unilateral and has no spectrum? Really?

Of course there will be investors interested in holding bitcoin, they will use different paths to get them. Paths that are already there for years and as such we can not expect there to be a big movement in that regard.

You contradict yourself.

Casual correlation:

1) Winklevii have long been trying to establish an ETF (COIN)

2) Recently, the Winklevii would like to start a BTC exchange (Gemini)


=> Winklevii may not be as optimistic as they once were regarding COIN, so now they look to start an exchange as a place to put their coins to use.

I hope they are at least diversifying all these Bitcoins into other crypto projects. All eggs in same cryptobasket = bad idea.
Also exchanges are a thing of the past, at least centralized ones.

Sure, diversifying in altcoins that no one cares sounds like a good idea  ::)

Yes let's waste money on scam coins, great idea! Sorry, i lolled hard with this one.

I think the key thing here is that they have secured a NY bank as their backers and appear to be doing everything by the book and make a the exchange 100% culpable and legitimate. It may not seem much to you or I (and others on these forums that know how to secure their BTC) but it might make the difference to some wealthly old guy or average 2.4 children family that don't have technical peace of mind but want to try out Bitcoin.

That's the way I see it, anyway.

My thoughts:

1) COIN won't get the SEC approval anytime soon; the potential lose of tax revenue for USG is too large currently and not enough regulations are in place (yet)

2) Winklevii know this; why not front run an ETF with your own exchange? They would be the equivalent of the NYSE if eventually they get ETF approval (They'd be their own market mover).

*I really dislike the fact that I see many of BTC's new infrastructure going the way of our current financial system. A great technology is being lost through osmosis of its best parts into a financially and morally corrupt banking system.

You could be right. Ultimately if bitcoin becomes successful as a digital 'gold' like asset of fixed scarcity with internet utility, then the price will rise dramatically, encumbered or bossed by derivatives markets or not :)

Yep, I could totally see a future were BTC technology is separated into two parts: 1) derivatives/finance/store of value/reserve status and 2) blockchain technology: payments/remittances/transactions/invoicing, etc.

if the ETF happens, and it probably won't, it won't necessarily mean money "coming into" bitcoin as it used to -- before options/leveraged markets existed. a regulated fund could lead to highly liquid markets in options, etc, but there is a good chance it actually pushes price down.

Yeah, it makes sense from an older POV guy that wants to invest. Only if we could get Warren Buffet to wake up and drop some millions on it, poor guy has become a stagnant dinosaur when it comes to crypto.

Bitcoin infrastructure is going both way. Haven't you heard of Lighthouse, Bitsquare and OpenBazaar? Bitcoin infrastructure being developed both way is good for broader adoption, one for legitimacy and mainstream adoption and the second one for the honeybadgers of this world. All connected with the same currency.

omg they wear almost same clothes too, this is borderline freak, surely will scare a lot of potential investors.

ETF will not come with this ridiculous volatility and manipulation

Wallstreet is not coming soon

How will potential investors know the twins have not swapped places? It could put them off if the twins keep wearing the same clothes.

I've heard of only Bitsqare and OpenBazaar; Lighthouse looks neat. I appreciate the tip off.

Just some thoughts:

Bitcoin doesn't need legitimacy, it already has it by merely existing. The idea of Bitcoin is rooted in trust (decentralization), something humans do not intrinsically possess. The Bitcoiners of the world are demanding security and the implementation of trust (regulated processes) because most are speculating on making a profit from it, hence they care about mitigating losses. This is the fault of humans, not the need for legitimacy of the tech.

Outside of speculation/trading, what purpose does BTC serve the average citizen that fiat dollars doesn't?

If given in the future BTC was implemented similar to a currency, what advantages would it offer that fiat currency can't?

The potential value of what BTC and blockchain technology offers is slanted to those who control the fiat I believe. Short of cheaper moneygram transactions, hedging economic inflation a bit, impressing your friends, diversifying investments, etc. it means nothing.

I am not saying BTC is bad, but the technology is being developed by those with money and power (or will be assumed by those with money and power) because the common Bitcoiner is looking to this technology as his/her way out of their measly middle class life.

Examples (Average Joe):

1) BTC exchanges -> NYSE, NASDAQ, FX already exists using fiat
2) Potential ETF -> Derivatives market already exists for fiat
3) BTC NFC mobile payments -> already exists for fiat and with numerous businesses/banks
4) BTC wallets backed by FDIC -> Bank accounts exist with this
5) BTC as hedge for inflation -> Commodities market already exists
6) Fast/low fee transactions -> Doesn't exist (the transaction processors stand to benefit from this way more than the average joe)
7) Buying goods/services -> already exists using fiat

Examples (USG/business/financial elites)

1) Massive fiat revenue from conversion of fiat for IOUs. Little responsibility to customer on the part of the exchange (as of right now)
2) Unbacked digital asset becomes backed by real fiat (free money with no collateral)
3) Data mining gold-mine
4) Front/back and side door monitoring by the USG for taxation purposes, AML, etc. (huge benefit, companies will get kickbacks)
5) Exporting real fiat inflation into a (by then) somewhat stable reserve choice
6) Companies will save fiat money processing digital transactions and still make a profit by "helping the customer" with cheaper rates
7) Customers have vested interest in using BTC. It's like gift cards to them. Once customers buy BTC, they are more apt to spend it as Bitcoin because it is expensive to convert back; hence they are racing to accept BTC.

Real talk

NOBODY KNOWS FOR SURE

The price is not the only reason to invest. Features, advertising, communities or trading volumes also attract...

Maybe I am wrong. Time will tell.. but your "argument" is.. missing.

I see bitcoin being integrated in the actual fiat systems as a good thing for this simple reason, it give bridges for people to jump off from the fiat systems to the bitcoin systems. This is inevitable as there is a lot of money to be made out of this and bitcoin is fairly easy to integrate into the actual payment rails. The more bitcoin is being integrated, the more bridges there are and these bridges doesn't stop people from developing new and innovative bitcoin systems. One day bitcoin will be so integrated that we will wake up and realize that bitcoin IS the way to go and there is no point for using stupid fiat anymore.

But there is a point; control.

History shows that every power loose their control at some point.

Yes, indeed. I agree. Someone else may (or may not) seize new control, but at the end of the day; it's power and control. It's like how America started. A bunch of guys sick of religious and financial persecution got together, fought and went on to start a new country of their own where they could persecute on religion and financial matters. It doesn't matter who really.

I just hope at least a small part of Bitcoin sees fruition in educating Americans (and other global citizen) what is really happening in the world with regards to money policy and how very slanted the system is. I hope it gets normal citizens charged about educating themselves properly and teaches them to see the bigger picture than if I buy X coin, I could make some money if big money jumps in.

I always hear the two different sides.  It goes up with good news and down with bad news, or vice-versa.  I wonder how many Bitcoiners would be willing to sell if the price did jump quite a bit.  Large amounts of money could move price up real fast which could make purchasers reconsider/ slow down.

^This. Why? Well every dang time some kind of bigger acceptance of BTC / good news has had a negative price on BTC.

Of course if it even sniffed 10 bucks I would be going all in.

It totally depends on what you mean by "into Bitcoin" - it depends if that money goes into companies operating in the Bitcoin ecosystem and offer services, etc. or if the money is being used to buy Bitcoin! The latter has a more direct effect on the price, while the former strengthens Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

I guess we'll be seeing more money flowing in it over the next months and years to come. Also, we'll see both - money invested in start-ups and also directly into Bitcoin. Who knows, the Winklevoss ETF could be just the vehicle Wall Street is waiting for...

The road to hell is paved with good intentions. By that token, I'm sure the fiat mess isnt necessarily by design.

Im thinking about the pattern of systems arisng through consensus. (A kind of anthropological corollary to software design patterns)

This is a pattern that repeats through human existence. Acceptance of a concept and propagation of its practical implication, leading to who knows where.

This seems natural, as it should for it has been the way of things for millennia. The practical implication of any given system is not at issue, this t would seem to me is the manner in which human evolution at a cultural level has and continues to evolve.

I am observing though, how that may change. The Internet facilitated many things, previously unimaginable. Of particular significance is the massive increase in coomunication potential. I think we are currently living through one of the most significant shifts in cultural evolution *ever*. Consider the normal 'evolutionary' timescale for a species, and then consider the disproportianate speed at which technology has evolved to low us to suddenly be a able to communicate with anyone in the world in any place at any time (thereabouts).

The impact of this will be, I beleive, as obvious and astonishing as the industrial revolution is to today's historians. We are in it now so we can't see it. BTC is just one facet of the integration of man. We're becoming a worldwide nation. Borders must drop. Equality must happen. Monetary equilibrium is one stepping stone. I'm for it, we are all the same. One love.

Great speech!

I don't think the technological aspect of our species can evolve very much longer though. Sure there is room for Tesla's suppressed inventions, anti-gravity based air/space vehicles, time travel, space colonization and conscious computers BUT I think we're approaching the limits of cosmos there. Luckily, some of those higher technological achievements would require us to acknowledge the power of consciousness and will hopefully lead to new endeavours --- the everlasting battle for our personal awareness.

The Inside ETFs conference is next week, and the Winklevoss twins are supposed to speak more extensively about their ETF plans then. Source: http://www.etf.com/sections/features/23846-winklevoss-bros-beware-bitcoin-etf-risks.html

When music and videos started illegally circulating on the internet, the first reaction of the big labels was to fight it.
Now, with YouTube ads, Spotify, NNetflix, etc. they found a way to keep their business up and running.

Same will happen with bitcoin and banks.

Not everyone has access to the "stability" of the US dollar. Hedging inflation and diversifying investments are great. Do you know how much cheaper MoneyGram and WesternUnion transactions would do for the third world?  You're also completely ignoring the other potential applications of blockchain technology.

Given the recent drop in the Bitcoin prices and the fact that the media has been talking about Bitcoin every single day, I expect that money will pour into Bitcoin esp from the man in the street.   This will certainly help the Bitcoin to become mainstream and cultivate more users.

It will take a while for there to be any noticeable difference.  We need success stories rather than Gox stories...

usually good news have little to no effect on prices in a bearmarket.

But of course things might change now that the fall trend has been broken