Bitcoin Forum

We all know that the Winkelvii already possess a very large quantity of BTC for their ETF. So the ETF will only have a positive effect on the price of bitcoins if the demand exceeds their stash.

So why is it the general notion that the Winkelvoss ETF is going to swiftly increase the price?

It will increase adoption with:

1. retirement accounts
2. people who don't want the counterparty risk of using an exchange based out of slovakia/hong kong/japan.
3. people not technically-savvy enough to store bitcoin

However, this isn't so much adoption except the few who may elect to take delivery of their stake. Then it's back to #3. Most will just trade it as any other speculative exchange asset which isn't adoption. They don't have to know anything about it and don't have to use it. Can I send a payment from the ETF using a "withdrawal button"? Doubt it. Most people aren't going to put their 401k's into it either. Some may, but you aren't going to see the masses do it just because Bitcoin... People aren't going to gamble with their retirement. Plain and simple. The first time they see their 401k drop by 50% they will shit a brick and people will leave in droves.

I do agree that the twinkledicks will eventually buy some coins when the existing ETF funds are all bought up and more demand comes in but it could be days or it could be years before it's all bought up. No one knows. My guess is there will be a large spike of speculative demand upon announcement which will just be a rush until the hype dies off. It won't change anything about the trend and most people buying into the ETF aren't going to buy it unless we have seen a bottom. So it won't magically cause a reversal by itself. If the bear market happens to end around the same time as it goes live, then it's because the Bear market was due to end and it's all a coincidence.

Right. The Winkelvoss ETF is a dump. They own a lot of Bitcoins and are looking for an exit. They'd crash the existing exchanges if they tried to exit that way. This is another way to do a big dump.

You miss the point. People hold gold in an etf. Not because they like the idea of holding a shiny metal as a paper holding, but because of the properties the commodity gold should display in theory. They will hold bitcoin as a speculative commodity for the same reasons. And the bitcoin market is tiny. A drop in the ocean compared to the trillions in capital which is currently excluded from investing. The ECB is about to print 1 trillion euros. Ho ho.

I'll say it again.... The ETF is a lie.

If all they wanted to do was to exit without crashing the market, they would sell incrementally over a long period of time, like 2 years. That would be faster and a helluva lot easier than building an ETF.

I doubt the Winklevii are motivated predominantly by money. They have enough to party hard 7 days a week for the next 100 years. I suspect that their primary motivation is to prove to the world that they are more than a pair of privileged dumb jocks whose only accomplishment in life was a lawsuit that gave them an undeserved $65M in crumbs from Mark Zuckerberg's humongous table. Their only chance at doing this is 1) for bitcoin to live up to its promise in a BIG way and 2) for the Winklevii to play a nontrivial role in its success. This has to be a long game for them.

I would speculate that the twins will keep accounts at all the major exchanges and arbitrage so that their stash of coins remains more or less constant, and they will dip into their stash (or add to it) when necessary so that large ETF purchases (or ETF cash outs) do not move the market.

"Say it ain't so, Joe!"

Show us your evidences.

If people put a lot of money into BTC, they will need to buy more BTC. Sure, they could first go ahead and sell their own stash, but don't you think they're in it for at least a longer period of time? I think they're in for the long haul!

He's just talking out of his ass

They won't just sell their own assets. They'll most likely buy new coins form somewhere. Anyways, an increasing demand will always push the price up, that's just how markets work. I can't wait until the fund goes live!

Exactly. People will be able to diversify a bit of their portfolios into bitcoins, just as they do gold. It doesn't even have to be a large percentage of their investments.

I completely agree.
They are not stupid investors so I don't believe they will sell at a loss.

I think the price will go up more for psychological impact the etf might have than due to its direct influence. It will make the big players more aware and respectful of bitcoin.

Buy the rumor, sell the news