Bitcoin Forum

Hi,

I have no experience short selling but I debate shorting now. Good idea? Anyone with experience? BTC seems overbought...

No, risk is too high, not worth it yet. If in the near future support won't hold and a downtrend will become apparent, then it may be worth and not risky.

Bear market is over so good luck with that.

There are indicators which can help define whether a market is overbought. I use RSI in daily trading and it proves reliable if read correctly. Many people don't agree that technical analysis is relevant to Bitcoin, I disagree.
This simple chart shows the RSI and Fibionacci retracement indicators for Bitcoin for the last three months.
The retracement lines help to show where bounces within the down trend might reach before failing. As you can see, Bitcoin could rise to around 310 and still have only retraced 50% of the recent move down from the 420+ highs of November.
The dips below the RSI red line show when it became oversold and rallied.
In conventional RSI reading, the downtrend will stay intact until a reading of over 50 is established, currently about 42, a level which has more or less been a lid on it for the last month.

TL:DR
So, no, I don't think it's overbought yet, but it's still in a down trend.
 :)

https://i.imgur.com/ixyXrOQ.png

lol Because of a comparison of 2011 and this downtrend? Yeah right. Just like the $339 or $275 bottoms right? Keep watching.

short now and die.

Shorting now is risky, picking tops when price is heavily bulltrapping is not a good idea.


If you are in BTC and you wanna take profit sure, but shorting right now is asking for trouble.

Please go on and short  :)

BUY SIGNAL


To da mooon ;D

Thank you for your reply. Great explanation!

Ok I short at $245. Wish me luck. :P

We need to test $250s, from there we will see if we retest $100s or keep a pace upwards. I really think people who are thinking this is a repeat of 2011 are forgetting how much has changed since 2011. Wall Street is coming soon. I don't think any of the past cycles will matter once they come in. It will be a whole new ball game.

So true.

The ballsy thing to do.

I'm not shorting right now, but the bear market is not over yet. I'll wait for the top of this sucker rally. Should be soon. ;)


If it's part of the historical price, it matters. Wall street isn't coming soon. At least not "soon" like the soon in my reply to knight22.


And the circlejerk begins.  ::) A little early to celebrate don't ya think? We aren't even out of the $200s

You sold at 245, means you have a safe margin to make 40 dollars as I expect another test of 200ish waters.. lower than that and you are on risk, still doable at 200-170, lower than that and then you require balls of steel to hold on fiat. Just my view.

With a bit of luck you will success but you will probably loose alot.

Do you have an exit strategy? Never open a trade without one.
At what level of loss will you accept your original decision was wrong and get out?

I ask because the 1 hour chart is quite interesting.
I can see the logic of shorting it now, because it is currently again attempting to break through the 238/240 previous highs and should it not be third time lucky and fail again, then it would be likely to test support around 225.
But you are talking about selling at a level just above resistance, after it has broken through: not a good idea.


https://i.imgur.com/tIOLMpd.png

No exit strategy. I'm really brave.
Plan on taking profit around $230.

FTFY  ;)

Alot of soldiers etc have been brave and all they did was die. Beign brave isn't the same as success.

but if you want to success you need to be brave :D

Or just be wise enought? :)

Agreed with the claim (WS is coming), or perhaps even, WS has been here for a while (maybe as a training field or playground for traders).

However, I think many here are under a misconception what it means once classical finance is entering the game. I personally think that, aside from a much needed correction, part of the reason we're seeing this drawn out bear market is that more traditionally oriented traders are making good use of margin trading to skim profits off of speculative (mini) rallies that aren't driven by a sustained inflow of new capital.

tl;dr IMO, Wall Street (or something close to it) is already here, but it's naive to think the only conclusion from that could be that it'll lead to new price highs.

Whut? Last week people were scamming that bitcoin will reach single digits soon. Now CCMF TTM MF again? Glad I HODLED strongly. Wish I had some cash on stamp.

Glad I changed my Euros to Bitcoin. Euro is losing more and more value. And that shows how BTC really works. When the paper money is worth nothing in the future BTC will be a strong future currency.

I definitely agree with you. Which is why I said what happened in 2011 does not really matter. I could easily see them sending this down to double digits as easy if not easier that shooting it up to a new ATH.

Well, no one knows. And don't believe anyone who claims they do! Sure, it could be a good idea. Then again, it also could be an even better idea to go all in long on maximum leverage. But be prepared, one violent price swing (which Bitcoin loves to do occasionally) and you lost everything!

Nobody knows for certain, even professional traders get it wrong. Shorting right now is risky, but perhaps going long is too.

Yeah, well basically I would recommend you not to do anything on leverage right now. Especially not on a high leverage, the risk being wiped out is just too high! Please everyone, consider all the risks involved and make your own decisions!

Brave people die young and poor  ;D

(seriously, get an exit strategy right now)

Could be still some months or even a year ahead of us until we see the top of the next bubble. But I agree that people have to learn to take their gains. If you never realize your gains, you never actually made them!

Nothing to add :-X

I just don't understand why "shorting" ??? Is there anything behind this decision ?

TA = bullish (IMHO)
bitcoin events = bullish
some guys on the forum = bearish

Of course we can go down further but I 'd need some real facts before betting my shirt on it.

Yes, day trading is the new moon

Not especially talking about shorting here... Shorting now would be the big gamble in my opinion. But if there's a really huge bubble, people would surely be best off if they sold near the top. Some people just don't 'see' or realize where they are as soon as a bubble happens.

Who needs an exit strategy?  That's what margin calls are for.

 ;D ;D ;D

Wow... I really wouldn't dare to short now. We're not in a stable bull market yet, but shorting seems to be really really really risky at the moment, if you ask me! But hey, it would be a nice surprise to see all the shorters get burned for a change :)

dont short in short term.

Buy some and wait some days/weeks, you probably will be at profit

Shorting at these levels?
A lot of people are expecting a break out from here.

It's either you go against the trend or follow the trend. Personally at current moment, i would follow the trend to be on the safe side.

trends can reverse at any moment due to bad news or big players dumping or buying.

You need to guess also when the trend might change

Come all short with me. Let's make some money gents. ;D

I hope you didn't short sell. If you decide to short, get a stop loss and don't do more than x2 leverage.

Dude did you really sell at 245? I think we are going up to 300 territory again before we can consider a correction to make some money...

Why are people so harsh on those who sell...

It's their decision if they sell, it's a free market, remember?

Perhaps they bought at $175 and they sell at $245.... Do that x20BTC and calculate your profit.

Always gotta laugh at these noob shorters getting late to the party and thinking they can get rich easily shorting BTC. :D

I'm even more interested in noobs shorting when they apparently know more about shorting when they belly up to the bar than that what they're messing with when they sign up here, unless they have schooled themselves about this present market prior to doing so. Tonight is great for a learner's permit.

Rado,

You must be a Rambo to short from now.

Some whales are waiting for new sell orders to go long. If you want to help the whales out, go short now.

lol

panicked shorts are about to all bail.... nobody will be short by Tuesday

I guess you are crying in the toliet now for the price takes off  ;D

$50 per coin against you in 48 hours........ this is when your only exit strategy is a 15th floor window.

Hey OP, look for my post. I told you don't short as we will be heading 250+ soon, should have listened.
Peace.

best you could hope for is sideways from here is you are bearish, trend lines are broken i think.

The good trade was to be long for the last few days. We are at more than 300$ and we could be at 340$ in a few days.

I advised the OP against shorting, before the pump, but he did it anyway. ;D
If he wasn't slaughtered in the meantime, he should close his short soon (in a couple of hours or maybe tomorrow) for maximum profit.

Totally agree, IMO it's going to head upwards again soon maybe high $200's, take $17 p.coin profit (at time of post) and plan a new strategy (unless you left at a loss)  ???

I GOT REKT BIG TIME XD

 ;)

I'm not so sure, there were some big dumps through some massive walls last night. If it goes below 200 it could cause panic selling again.

too rishy, i see a lot of small swing, small P&d, you can short yes, plent of shorting, but it's a bit of gambling, i don't see a good pattern

anyone have a reasonable explanation for this pump? I seriously thought this was gonna go in the other direction today

why would you buy?

What do you mean?  There is nothing unnatural about something skyrocketing in 3 hours for no apparent reason.
Nothing bad ever happened to any bitcoin that was purchased during such an unnatural growth, nothing at all!

Whether you shorted at 215, or you are going to short at 230, you are going to make so much money that you will be able to manipulate the price all on your own, and us fuckwads will gobble up every pointless pump!

I'm not a daytrader really, I'm in it for the long term.

emergency pump for superbowl-hype ... will come back down as soon everyone is done with buying. Another small pump and dump... business as usual.

`

When you short with leverage and the market is moving on you, you will lose all your capital. If you shorted on January 24th, you would have lost 38$ per BTC x your leverage in 3 days.

You win some, you lose some.  :)

Just don't leverage with Bitcoin, it is too volatile, it is just waiting to bankrupt people if they over-leverage.  Currencies are perfect for leverage normally, CHF aside!

buy now or regret later  :-*

This was advice we heard when Bitcoin was at $600, $500, $400 and $300.

Price was @ 800$ during the time of the post. A year later this assumption still seems to be correct.  
I would almost say that we could adjust it to 100$ now :( .

 :D