Bitcoin Forum

Now that the hype about coinbase exchange has died down, are we back to the painful slow death?

I really don't think so. The long-long term trend is still upwards! We've seen a strong and sustainable recovery from our sub $200s adventure. The micro-bubble we've seen was just pure speculation in anticipation of the moon-announcement. We'll go up eventually!

The market is "training" people to think that all rallies will end quickly and buy orders need to be placed at lower levels. When the real upswing starts, many people will be caught by surprise and the momentum higher will be amazing.   :)

Yeah, every time we go down we reach a moment where we potentially hit 'the real bottom' the further we go down, the higher the risk to dismiss it as just another temporary bottom. At some point we will (maybe this time already have) reach the real turning point!

This kills the bear

Yes, Smith's Invisible Hand keeps smacking Bitcoiners upside the head.
Pavlov's dogs woulda learned, Bitcoiners?  Not so much...

Dear oh dear!

Training people to think that all rallies will end quickly / go pop with a big short squeeze, is training people to not give a shit.

Bitcoin bounced so dramatically from it's Dec 2013 crashes, because memory of $1200 coin was still fresh.

$1200 coin is now a distant memory. Not so distant memories are those of Bitcoin continuing to put in a series of what were not so long ago, 'unthinkable lows'. And this is the current market sentiment. Some X-Factor sweeping into town and ramping the price notwithstanding, it takes a long time after a bear market for 'trust' and then positivity to creep back into the market. Right now, even the most long term bullish of Bitcoiners wouldn't be surprised by yet lower lows, although they may hope and pray that $150 bottom was the last of it (it wasn't). That there is your current market sentiment.

Bit-Happy is actually on my ignore list cos way back in the day, I couldnt bear to constantly be reading the mindless positive soundbites, when my overall sentiment on Bitcoin was the exact opposite. I can see nothing has changed.

I'd rather like to think we're now on our way to the actual longtime upward-trend!!! Sure, we could go lower still but the bottom in early January did look quite desperate already. Shorting now in anticipation of sub $200 prices is risky. Quite risky in my opinion!

What hype?  BTC has been going down for the last year consistently, so why would we all of the sudden be "back" to that?

Very risky, so don't so it.

This market is unlikely to take another death plunge anytime soon. More likely is a further correction, and another surge up, before the buying pressure fades away, the market stagnates on low volume for a period, before those with Bitcoins that must be sold, start to sell, pushing the price down, resulting in yet more downwards momentum resulting in a sell-off panic.

When you say "long term trend", you mean from like 2010 when a btc was worth $0.0000000000000000000000000001?

I'm concerned with the more recent long-term trend, like from Jan'2014, when a btc was worth over $800. From this perspective, in spite of all the good news, merchant adoptions and strong fundamentals, btc suffered a long, slow, slide downward.

I actually don't intend on shorting, at all. I'm bullish and also don't even think about touching leveraged instruments. So you think there won't be any turnaround, at all? I do think we'll go back up sooner rather than later.

I believe the btc matra throughout 2014 was "we'll go back up sooner rather than later." Why is it different in 2015?

No. Dumb question.

^^^^^^
There are no dumb questions, only dumb answers.

We had to pull back a little after going from $160 to $315 quickly dont you think? can just grow nearly double like that and not expect some consolidation.

Since so many people know the answer to this, can I ask where I left my car keys?

$238 now from $255 an hour ago.  ???

Mirco-bubble popping in time-lapse now. Nothing to see here in my opinion. People should feel free to short now or "cut their loose" but please don't complain afterwards that you had to buy back at a premium afterwards!

you left your Ferrari car keys @ $1200

i did the same

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=939.9333340000001&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=M&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
The last year of Bitcoin. Daily median price, so some of the brief spikes during slow trading periods don't show.

It's been consistently downhill since June, with about ±$50 variation around the straight-line trend.

overstated much >?

Really fast drop == Long-term winners are the ones who are buying now.

One of the key mistakes investors make is not setting a time period that we would expect our investment to gain.

How's it an overstatement? Why do you say it's an overstatement to say the btc has been consistently downhill since June of 2014?

This is excellent news. Consistently downhill, just like Pfizer Inc., 2002 to 2009:

https://i.imgur.com/IwLfH0k.png?1

Moreover, since the main organizer's website Bitcoin, Mtgox, reportedly lost hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin in early 2014 as a result of hacking, the fate of Bitcoin in the virtual world and the real increasingly poor and unclear.  :(

true price is currently so low that in any big price jump can be huge amount of income

Lol, he was saying that the chart displays the past year (e.g. the previous year, the last year) of the price, not that this is the last year of bitcoin (e.g. that it's going to die).

It has been down since it was December of 2013.  Consistently going down with a few bumps up is still a huge downward trend.  Down over $1000 dollars is a big deal.

last high price was apparently the usual dead cat bounce, market manipulation as its finest

Mainly because 2 factors:

1. The end of QE. In fact the price of almost any commody has been in a long downward trend since the QE slowed down and eventually stopped during 2014

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/141202121104-oil-price-2014-620xa.png


2. The mining cost is still lower than coin's exchange rate during most of 2014


For no.1, FED still keep their previous projection of raising the interest on later part this year. But I think if USD liquidity become a much severe problem sooner than they can imagine, eventually they have to start QE again

For no.2, now the cost is already higher than exchange rate at some place, so some of the miner will just shutdown rig and buy bitcoins instead, that will give some support in the near future

you could also look at it like this: BTC is in a consistent uptrend since 2009
(Still up over 8 Million Percent since the first transaction for a 10,000 BTC Pizza)

Yes, you could also say that when BTC is worth 2 dollars 2 years from now.  Its silly to say that its going up because it obviously is not.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=1460&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&



Um no you couldn't say that because at $2, BTC would only be up something like 100,000% since inception.  Far cry from 8,000,000%.

that chart doesn't even go back to 2009  :D

Oh, and it's logarithmic.  A linear chart wouldn't even show you everything.  The previous rallies would look like BUMPS! 

As far as I am concerned, btc price has seen nothing but declines. I bought in last summer, september of 2014. Since then, btc price as lost about 50% of its value. I suspect a good percentage of users are in my shoes or worse.

Anyone who says that BTC is on an upward spiral is completely on crack and should be ignored on any advice they give.  Like I said, BTC has been in a downward spiral since December of 2013 or maybe even earlier.