Bitcoin Forum

After coinbase' trick, we will continue or downward spiral even faster.
Bulls have come back from a cold shower now and will probably panic sell around the 200 mark tomorrow or friday, accelerating bitcoins demise.
I'll just warn you guys again... get out while you still can...

You're not wrong...

2015 is sick year for bitcoin  >:(

Sadly there's no cure, terminal sickness will hurt a lot of people when it finally dies...

When it does maybe a lot of people here with crazy anarchistic thoughts will realize why money is regulated in the first place...

Going down to $60 in 3 waves then bears will turn bull or be decimated.

Not even sure if it crosses $100.

I think there are people looking to mass buy over few month period of $50-100.  Just a very strong gut feeling.

I'd eat really a lot of coins at 50-100, but 100-150 would also be good starter :)

wow

congratulations!!!

 >:( >:( >:( >:( >:(

I read a lot of optimism in this thread!!!

why you are so pessimistic!!!

we know all the bitcoin volatility...
and we like bitcoin for this!!!

so i think volatility will be always welcome!!!

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

just take the right position!!!!

I'm pessimistic because the fundamentals are screwed, things that should have been fixed years ago are still being dragged along and devs are either unresponsive or come with 'oh, we'll deal with that when it becomes an issue.'.

But, i have to admit you can build a fully working economy on something totally messed up, central banks are doing just that world wide... So who knows, but i don't think there's much hope left for bitcoin unless there's a hard fork which will be a disaster at this point, i doubt there will ever be consensus.

Great thing about going down to $50 to $100 is that all the emotionally weak investors would have panic sold, and then the market only has 1 way to go...

No more emotionally weak investors plus an abundance of extremely cheap coins available...need I say more?

Aye..

Just for the record I am just Bullish on the BTC price..  I believe BTC will be here for a very long time.

Flawed logic.  

You think a strong hand only needs to buy once, then hold forever?  You see, bitcoins have to be CONTINUOUSLY bought on a DAILY BASIS by SOMEONE out there to keep the price up, otherwise price will just continue to fall or until the monetary base inflation rate becomes negligible (around 100 years from now).

Not necessarily...a much greater proportion of people can afford to buy in the lower the price gets. The wealthy can buy that many more. Once the price makes enough of a sharp rise people panic buy and then it just takes off.

Not to mention the block halving in 2016 will cut the number of new bitcoins produced per day in half...

It's just as easy and affordable to buy btc at $5000/btc as it is at $5/btc, you just get more or less btc depending..

i'm interested to red words.
can you elaborate it plz?
what are this point??

i'm really interested!!!

thanks!!!

yep bitcoin prices should hopefully reach a floor soon

It's basic human psychology, or psych 101...people are going to buy more of something when it is cheaper.

we hit like .1% inflation in 2032.....

Thanks for the warning OP, you are too kind!

Remind me to name my first child after you, assuming I don't accidentally kill myself eating cereal before that happens.

Traders are securing their profits.

It's a normal reaction, it went up from under $160 to over $300...

Not true.  If Gold were $0.000001/ounce, no one would want it or care.

@unsoindovo

mostly scaling issues..

- max of 7tps due to block size limitation, increasing the blocksize has some negative effects too and just moves the problem to the future, removing it adds more problems.
- ever exponentially growing blockchain size, other coins have developed a solution to this issue, regardless of cheap bandwith and storage, it's highly inefficient to store a full history of decades or centuries and increases centralization (and i like the initial decentralized aspect of bitcoin a lot..)
- 10 minute confirmation time, i don't think i have to say anything about this, quite a problem in real life transactions where you're not interacting with the other party for half an hour...

- not anonymous, fully traceable and possible to make very good correlations.
- no multi-sig implementation that's usable for the average Joe.

While I get what you're trying to say, that's not entirely true.

Gold is still a physical object and has intrinsic value whether it be decoration or industrial purposes in electronics or as a heat conductor (many supercars use it to line the engine bay).

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has no 'intrinsic' value if it crashes.  You can't extract a bitcoin out of your harddrive and play with it, or use it as a jacket when it's cold outside.  It's sole value stems from its purchasing power, nothing more.  It's value is its life support.

But so are company stocks.  When a company goes bankrupt, you can't 'turn in' your stock certs and get something in return.  They are literally worthless.  You can wipe your butt with them, or hang them on your wall so you can periodically cry while looking at them.  (actually you can't even get physical stock certs anymore, but that is a different story...)

Same with fiat paper and fiat coins.  They are worthless unless they are 'valued' by people, or a government simply says they have value.  Otherwise they are literally worthless.

Too bad, too sad bitcoin reward schedule was made by some apes apparently.

Bitcoin like: "we are groundbreaking new tech in moneytoken but you can't use it before 2028 because that's how long distribution will take"

Man, i don't get my head around how people can create this technology and then screw up the economic part like that. Some real apes.

Getting into philosophical territory here, but technically all that matters is future convertibility.  Nothing has intrinsic value if you are not using it that very moment.  A delicious, piping hot Taco Bell chilli cheese burrito comes to mind .. versus a bar of gold.  The intrinsic value of a bar of gold is the expectation that someone else will find it equally valuable at some point in the future.

Miners you slow derp
And maybe a couple of those early adopters from the ninjamine/flashmine in the beginning who are hyping here a lot so you think it's cheap while they mined hundreds of thousands on their laptops CPU in the beginning. (protip: it's those with the bitcoinfoundation memberships)

Agreed.  But the 'coins' sentiment needed some clarification.  Silver and gold coins will always hold intrinsic value beyond just their face value.  Most modern day alloy coins are pretty much worthless in this regard, however (which is exactly why the government started going away from silver).

Not buying a single bitcoin until price hits $20-30 dollar. For the current transactions, a 300M market cap should be sufficient, so the price needs to fall by another 10x ...

Excuses, excuses. Thats all there is. Wake up and hear the music for once. Bitcoin is dying. I'm gonna sell some and diversify into Ripple which seems to be the only one with ACTUAL dev work going on instead of old nerds fapping and calling themselves Bitcoin Core Devs

I don't think it will go that low this current ongoing crash, we'll probably bounce around 120-130, back to around 180-200, then decline again to 60-80 before returning upwards a little again...
You could wait for a 3rd crash that goes lower but that could take a while. These are the indicators for the upcoming period, they were there before the coinbase trickery, and they are still valid now.
There's still a risk of complete collapse of course, so the safe bet would be to invest in proper smart and fair digital currency like ripple or things like that.

Ridiculous.

So it's dying @230 yet you're going to buy in @30 when, by your reasoning, rigor mortis should have set in.

Come on.

Havin' a larf aren't ya?

230 is still not that bad.

It's not as simple as that.  You should know this by your own experience, i.e. I'm guessing you aren't buying all the alt-coins that have fallen off a cliff. 

The factor you are missing is demand.  Demand increases when perceived utility (not necessarily the same as price value) increases.  For example, you aren't rushing to buy all the alts because they yield little utility if you are the only one using them.

I think that is exactly what is good about it.  If it takes so long, it will get spread out a lot.  The seigniorage will be everywhere and nowhere. 

Bitcoin is not going to become a main currency (if ever) before several decades in any case, so just as well take that time to distribute it.  Bitcoin is a century-long project.  As fiat money has been.

Things are getting faster, I give you that. I'm actually quite grateful about that, because that way we're done with this bearfest even faster. I know, bears and shorters like to push it as far as they can, but at some point it 'breaks' and the price goes up.

that's congruent with my calculcations to. But you need to take in account all the mad people and believers who buy for higher. So i think taken those people into account 50$ to 60$ is realistic.

But ripple is some serious cowshit too.  ::) 

Man, it's a cult for some grandeur-dilousional lunatics and can't hold water. It's already hopelessly antiquated.  

All i hear from the Bitcoin hardcore supporters is contradictions by now. It was delusional madness before  (still is) and now it has become contradictions. So i think it's safe to say this crowd has lost its credibility together with the coin they support.

People want to make payments and store value now, not next century. Bitcoin is a joke.

your view: Bitcoin will go down to double digits and people will still be interested. It is one of the most volatile things on earth and can't hold value but somehow in a century it magically is still the leading crypto

my view: next century we will have 5 to 20 wildly advanced cryptocurrencies which get more and more staying power as they progress through the technical evolutionary stages and which will directly cater to the needs of their userbase. So the future is in altcoin developement and there will be a new golddigger era in the upcoming years as old bitcoin is dethroned and real competition between technologically advanced coins for userbase sets in. Cryptocurrency startup will become a billion dollar industry. In my scenario Bitcoin will be remembered as the first one but sadly had too many problems. A lot of altcoins will go mainstream (not bitcoin) and they will see a progression/evolution like that of musical genres last century (first came blues, jazz, then rock n' roll which advanced into a huge array of rockmusic. Later came RAP, POP and Techno and so on) ... so bitcoin is more like the classical music and maybe it will still be played next century amongst some nostalgic people but most people will prefer Rock or Pop.


which view do you think is more realistic?

Bitcoin has really become an obstacle to true technological advancement. And all the cult following with their contradictions and pipedream-hype-talk is an insult to the intelligent man.

Yeah, it's effectively becoming faster. Also the volume is incredibly high these days (http://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/2y?c=e&r=week&t=a&volume_unit=btc (http://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/2y?c=e&r=week&t=a&volume_unit=btc)), which is a good sign for things finally being decided now. Instead of people waiting for movements to happen, they actually go and act in some way.

Volume is good on the dumps. That's true.

Bitcoin price down quickly after a little pump after Coinbase new exchange site
Maybe we will see $199 again soon ::)

And trading volume is higher than usual, so we can expect huge dump anythime :(

Why would we have to expect a dump just because the trading volume is currently higher than usual? A high trading volume just shows us that the market is alive and well. I'd be more concerned if there were dumps at low volume, man.

precisely... also volume can be faked.. this market is so rigged to the bones that you'll have to go through a lot of indicators to get the feel of where the next direction is going to be...

just returning to the previous dump value, not really a dump, this is pure manipulation, big fish are eating nicely

I believe all dumps downwards for the past 4 months were acts of manipulation. That is, the ones that occured in 1 or 2 days.

Well yes, it's most certainly manipulation. That's been discussed at length in the past.
The problems however run much deeper than manipulation.

I agree. I was only talking about the major downshifts though. The general downshift is caused by the inherent inflation and the lack of people buying Bitcoin.

I should have said: "cryptocurrencies" are a century-long project, and the bitcoin inflation curve is well-adapted to that.  But in the end, there may be other cryptocurrencies taking a larger (or all) of the market share.

My belief is that cryptocurrencies/bitcoin will become true money if there is generalized merchant adoption, and that that is the true fundamental of bitcoin.  In other words, when bitcoin (or another cryptocurrency) is generally used to "pay for stuff".  Also when people will generally accept to be paid (salary etc...) into bitcoin/cryptocurrency.   The absolute price of bitcoin for that application doesn't really matter.  It would be the ease of going anywhere in the world, and be able to pay mostly anonymously, mostly anything.  Whether in an Eastern basaar, in a South-American shop, or in China or Japan.  Whether in Europe or in Africa.  Whether in the USA or anywhere else.  For big or small amounts.  No questions, no permissions, no bank agreements, small fees.  For world travelers.
Only after that, it really may become a long-term store of value, once it has a serious use as a currency.

Now, contrary to any technological evolution which can go very fast, people in general are very conservative concerning everything which touches their money.  Credit cards and stuff like that didn't change the fact that people were holding money on bank accounts.

The last time people really changed their money conceptually, was when they changed from metal to non-backed paper.  It took more than a century, with metal-backing, before that transition was generally accepted.  Changing from fiat to bitcoin/crypto is similar (but opposite) to the transition from gold/silver to non-backed paper.  I say, opposite, because the transition from gold/silver to paper was a transition from liberal-worldwide to state-based, and bitcoin/crypto would be a transition from state-based to liberal-worldwide.


This is very well possible.  However, bitcoin has the historical advantage and the "long blockchain-and-a-high-difficulty" advantage.  As confidence will build up very slowly in these matters, the longest history is often important.

That's a bit like gold/silver over other metals.  It is very well possible that other metals are more interesting, technically speaking.  Maybe iridium would be better.  But gold has the historical advantage, and no other technically improved metal has taken over from gold.

New cryptocurrencies will always be compared to bitcoin.  If bitcoin is volatile for more than 10 years, nobody will believe that a NEW coin will be less volatile for instance.

Merchant adoption will probably always include bitcoin if any other coin is also having success.

I mean, if bitcoin fails, I can hardly imagine any other coin obtaining more confidence.  What is possible is that bitcoin will grow slower than another coin, and that a few decades from now, another coin slowly has gained more confidence and competes bitcoin out of the market.  But if bitcoin fails before general adoption, I cannot imagine another coin "starting all over and winning more confidence".

In altcoin? No way. If for any reason bitcoin does fail, I don't think any of the alts are worthy enough to take the place of bitcoin. Even then my belief still holds true that one day bitcoin will be the currency that replaces fiat.

Well, and then there was a dreammaterial by the name 'Unobtanium' ...   ;)

I hope everyone is holding a few in their portfolio, just in case...
It deserves a close look.

If Bitcoin doesn't fear the underdog, it's gonna get burned real quick

What underdog tho? tell me a project that realistically can make Bitcoin be in danger of being replaced.

by the time everyone sees it, it will already be too late  ;D

I think that now, bitcoin has its own space!
and no one can remove it completely!!!
probably, new projects, can erode a bit 'of its market,
but bitcoin will never be abandoned....
and will never die!!
There are other projects that are promising but still have a lot to prove and demostrate!
I'm talking about Ethereum, Ripple, Nxt and why not Burst using the algorithm POC.

I wish to see a day when the bitcoin is free from manipulation and has a stable value.
I won't mind going all in on it then

I doubt its value will ever be completely stable.

i don't understand if a Fiat coin it is not stable in real life,
why bitcoin should be???
i see euro, dollar, ruble, yen and all other coins are really volatile!!
and there aren't matters!!!

It's a question of degree.
While USD price fluctuates, BTC price takes epileptic fits--often changing more in a few minutes than the USD does over a whole year.  That's why businesses which accept BTC set their prices in real money, and convert the price to BTC at the moment of transaction.

Well none of them are actually as volatile as the bitcoin. The volatility of rubble was actually a crash, and different from normal volatility.

i agree with NotLambchop and calci...

bitcoin trading have an high volatility...

more and more highest of fiat currency exchage!!!

but i know there are a lot of traders who switch from fiat currency trading to bitcoin trading,
just to take advantage from the highest market volatility!!!

all of us know if there aren't volatility,
there aren't gain in trading!!!

They must have to switch between fiat currency trading to bitcoin trading very frequently because there have been long periods when bitcoins price was fairly stable interspersed with volatile periods.

The term 'currency' is thrown around very loosely.  The U.S. Government defines bitcoin as 'virtual currency,' which is very different than an actual currency. Why? Because real currency is backed by military...very expensive military forces...that can wipe out the entire world's population.   Bitcoin is backed by....anonymous neckbeards securing a blockchain.  There's a huge difference there.

If anything, I look at bitcoin as more of an 'alternate payment method,' no different than the categorization of credit cards, paypal, money orders, and the like.  Until bitcoin can shake it's direct value ties to the u.s. dollar, it cannot stand on its own and thus isn't a true currency.  It's basically exchangeable monopoly money on a harddrive.

Careful there, the IRS does not consider Bitcoin to be any kind of a currency for tax reporting purposes.  It's treated like capital.  Every time (and I mean every time) you convert a Bitcoin into another form (other cryptos, real estate, gold, dollars, even a cup of coffee), you are supposed to report this to the IRS.  Like I've said here before, the IRS has through their regulations made Bitcoin essentially impossible to use as a currency and still remain compliant with tax code.

And the wallet doesn't fit in my pocket, It's doomed.

It's not shiny, and the sound when you throw a new coin onto the same address, is nothing like the sound of accumulating gold coins in a chest. Why would anywone want that?