Bitcoin Forum

Hello,

I have been working on economic research of Bitcoin for over a year and would like to present my findings at the London conference http://bitcoin2012.com/ (http://bitcoin2012.com/). My paper will probably be published before that, but this way I can present some aspects of it in what will hopefully be a less boring form, and answer questions.

As it is a complex topic and I won't be able to talk about everything, I am giving you an opportunity to pick the topic you consider interesting. The resulting ranking will influence my talk. I don't know yet how many topics I can discuss but I don't think there will be time for more than two, so everyone can make two votes. You have 14 days to vote. You do not need to attend the conference to vote, it will most likely be recorded anyway so you can check it out online afterwards.

Destroy the myth of a deflationary price spiral.

+1

the topics lonelyminer posted seem all very non-controversial to be honest.

two ideas:

-how taxes would work in a bitcoin dominated world
-why is bitcoin a fiat/not a fiat currency

Present some case studies on capital controls through history and speak about how Bitcoin could circumvent them.

I'd be interested to hear about how the Austro-Hungarian currency union came to an end and over what kind of time frame it happened. Did they get a chance to implement capital controls? Who made money, who lost money etc.

It would be a very relevant talk given the precarious situation of the Eurozone.

This is under the Macroeconomic Analysis.

Depends on what you mean:
- what the state should do to continue taxing people
- if there is a problem with taxes due to afalling price level
- how you should treat Bitcoin for tax purposes

?

This is under Definition of money and how Bitcoin fits in.

This is to a certain extent under Bitcoin competing with other currencies and payment systems, but I have no case studies.

Securing online services
Merchant services
Mobile payments World
Electronic commerce
Electronic digital cash & virtual World taxation
New Products and services 2013
Gaming and gambling industry

This is more like analysis of market segments rather than economics.

Woah! I may be visiting a mate in London about the time of this conference. If so, I'm definitely going.

+1

Will taxing people still be possible?
Will all other currencies suffer a hyperinflation death?

primarily because its a little more controversial and you will get critical questions :) afaik some bitcoiners oppose taxes heavily.

my questions are: [imagine me now putting my european-socialist hat on]
could bitcoin due to its transparency improve tax collection fairness in an all-bitcoin world?
could entity de-anonymisation be used to enfore a progressive wealth tax?

what kind of transactions will be taxable
could there be more automation maybe? something like a government-run API "sendmany" or TX fee to settle VAT instantly?
how many tax collectors could we fire once the government gets more efficient?

These questions appear a bit too speculative for my taste - not that I wouldn't like to discuss such things but they more or less all have the premise that Bitcoin is already legal tender. Since this premise is extremely unlikely in the near to medium term future I think we cannot say much about how a state and its tax-system could possibly look like then (there's simply too many uncertainties involved concerning how exactly we got there).

What the economic discussion around Bitcoin needs IMHO is to address some immediate practical issues:
- status of the regulatory process concerning Bitcoin
- tax issues, possible loophole concerning VAT (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=66774.msg909627#msg909627)
- the case for/against Bitcoin as digital service vs. Bitcoin as currency
- best practices of dealing with Bitcoin in the books
- legal status of Bitcoin exchanges

Sure, such a talk would not raise that many controversies, but it would be extremely useful for any company wanting to deal with Bitcoin. But of course some more high-level economic views would also be very interesting.

Yes please do. I just ran in to an 'economist' on a bus while wearing a bitcoin shirt and had to listen to him explain that Bitcoin would fail because bitcoins would be too valuable (which would make them worthless, doh).

No worries, I oppose taxes too. But I get your point.

Ok, this is handled partially by macro and partially by competition topics, but probably wouldn't go onto that much detail in the talk.

Yup -  I've even had an argument (okay - a one-way argument) with Krugman on this:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/530678-minorman/214527-paul-krugman-s-take-on-bitcoin

+1
A lot US-biased people on these forums seem to complain about US-specific problems, and often advocate some kind of "anarchic" and presumably tax-free society in response to their country's problems. That's all very nice, but there don't seem to be any historic examples demonstrating how a Libertarian Utopia might actually work. And even if there used to be some anarchic societies in the past, clearly they all got destroyed for some or other reason. (Maybe they couldn't collect enough funds for a functional defence force, and a stronger, more evil power overpowered them?)

So, what I want to know is how can ordinary societies with ordinary governments incorporate Bitcoin into their taxation systems, while avoiding social upheaval? And why would they want to?

Medieval Iceland (http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Iceland) which had a golden age with the absence of government (http://mises.org/daily/1121) and use of private law (http://daviddfriedman.com/The_Machinery_of_Freedom_.pdf). Their downfall was restricting service providers of equity and justice not the granting a violent monopoly. As with any monopoly, the service provider will keep raising the price and giving a lower quality product until a competitor busts the monopoly. Just because the State has a monopoly of violence does not exempt it from economic law.

The use of private law, through mechanisms like judge.me (http://www.judge.me), can help route around the extremely expensive and low quality equity and justice currently provided by major States.

If you like your "ordinary society" with "ordinary government", why bitcoins? Why not stay with these great shit currencies, these great taxes,...? Oh yes, you can't have one without the other. Governments will never adopt a bitcoin-like currency because they want to control the money, and they want to control the money to extract wealth from productive people.

And you want a libertarian country that worked well: the US. They became so wealth because it once was a libertarian country. That was looooonnng ago though.


And no, I'm not from US, I'm from France, a great "ordinary society" that works so well...; at enforcing poverty :)

But anyway it's a great idea to answer these questions about taxes and how bitcoins will be great to raise taxes (which he won't be but hey...). We need to make bitcoin look innocuous to States and their volontary slaves

what changes in society can we expect if a country is forced to adopt bitcoin?

as a thought experiment:
for example, if greece exits the euro, drachma hyperinflates and people turn to bitcoins, silver, gold. for practical reasons most transactions would take place in bitcoins..

lets assume the state or a an elected successor entity still exists how would the use of bitcoin shape society?

The jackbooted thugs do not get paid and go find something else to do besides stomping on your neck to either earn a living or starve to death. We are rapidly moving into a world where the return on investment from violence is negative not positive like it has been for the past 500 years of the Industrial Age.

If you really want some extremely insightful foresight then go read the 1997 book The Sovereign Individual (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0684832720/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0684832720&linkCode=as2&tag=run07-20); I have not come across a more prescient book for the transition from the Industrial Age to the Information Age.

Couldn't agree more.  In fact, I'd argue trade has always been more profitable.  Why would you give money to war when you could buy more food, shelter, etc?  Because you previously didn't have a choice.  Bitcoin changes all of that.  Gold can be stolen, bank accounts can be frozen, but bitcoins can be stored in my mind!

+1

really looking forward to that your talk, whatever it's about.

Yes, the effects of deflation would be interesting. Still can't make up my mind on the topic.

The topics "Definition of money", "Fractional reserve banking, money supply" and "Mises' Regression Theorem" are all mostly relevant for people who want to know why Bitcoin is useful -- I'd expect that many people attending the conference already understand this. So it's no surprise the topics got less votes so far.

Fractional Reserve Banking in Bitcoin's possible future might be interesting for speculators.

Bump. Vote if you haven't yet.

This is particularly important when the US based "solutions" have a profound implication on VAT/GST a form of taxation that is prevalent in every major economy with the notable exception of the United States of America. Treating Bitcoin as "money" or "currency" rather than as a "commodity" is critical to avoid major chaos when considering VAT/GST. 

So the results are in and the top 2 topics are:

Bitcoin competing with other currencies and payment systems 32 (35.2%)
Macroeconomic analysis of Bitcoin (includes deflation) 22 (24.2%)

So I plan to talking about how currencies and payment systems compete with each other and where Bitcoin stands in that, and if there is enough time, also about "deflation". I'll send off a paper to the organisers and we'll see if it gets accepted.

See you there.

cool. I hope there's enough time for the macroeceonomic analysis. I'm sure you'll be accepted.

Looks like I was allocated a 45 minute slot. So I should have enough time for both topics. Now I just need to prepare the actual presentation ;).

See you next weekend.

Good luck.  Sounds like it should be interesting.

Unfortunately I can't get to the Conference, so hopefully there will be links and comments
posted on the content.

I'm planning to get to the Kilkenomics festival in November, and have started a thread
if anyone is interested in an informal meeting on Bitcoin.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=106598.0

 

Where can I find more details on the conference?  I cant find full details anywhere.

Being blind.  Obvious link in first post.

So, my talk took place today, and I got very positive feedback and insightful comments and questions. Molecular recorded it on the video so eventually it will be posted online. Thanks to all the poll participants and everyone that contributed in some way.

LOL at me having a whole discussion today in the Economy forum and basicly having the same point as a nobel price winner without knowing his work.

Double LOL!