Bitcoin Forum

By the next block halving reward which will be 12.5 BTC as a reward (going to happen in late 2016 , early 2017) instead of 25 BTC (now)
Where the price is going , logically the price should go UP of course since there is less supply . How much the price could reach and can we see another scenario ? (price going down)

You have answered your own question. Most likely to happen is the price will increase.

The only thing is..... What will the price be just before the block halving...

If it is $125 then we might see Bitcoin going over $200 or $250 after block halving.

Which means the price in late 2016 will be roughly the same as the current price now.

Yes I think we can forget the 1'000 dollars per bitcoin , at the moment we can't reach 500 dollars. Maybe with the next block reward halving we will reach 400 dollars ( my personal opinion).

Aw , you guys just broke my hopes I guess  :'(
and me who was planning to enroll in signature compaigns and hold a lot of bitcoins for the future

Don't be afraid, I was just giving an example. But it is possible.

Regardless of the price, signature campains are a great chance to earn free coins.

Save them and buy something nice with them once you have a decent amount :)

All the talk of block reward halving shows desperation. At the end there is still inflation but its easily overcome when the trend is positive. Current the sentiment is poor so no amount of reward halving is going to change it.

Its actually just 1800 BTC saved from being dumped. With that, I am not even sure, if it will make a difference . Right now, its speculated. But nothing is certain.

I think we might go close to 400-500 again after halving. But it is 2 years away right now. The increase or decrease would also depend on what the price is right before then.

After the halving, the supply will be about 15.8 million BTC and will continue to increase at the rate of about 660,000 BTC per year. The supply never goes down because bitcoins are not consumed.

Furthermore, the change in the rate is only 1800 BTC per day. That is insignificant compared to the current daily exchange volume of over 500,000 BTC per day. The halving will have no effect on the supply of bitcoins.

In the long term, halving reduces inflation, lessening the downward pressure on prices. In the short term, nothing will happen.

it does have a massive effect on inflation though, and also on the psychology of the market in general.

Technically the supply and inflation is known in advance, it's only adoption and 'velocity' that drive the price and these are the only unknowns.

However, by having less inflation, adoption may rise (as it's more profitable to use bitcoin as investment or at least as a hedge against inflation of whatever fiat currency your country has) and therefore the price could rise.

According to http://bitcoinclock.com/
The halving times will be a little earlier than expected:
Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-30 15:49:36 UTC (77 weeks, 5 days, 13 hours, 20 minutes)

That's the thing , I don't want to buy anything with them if the price is going UP you know
If the price is guaranteed to reach something like 700$ per BTC that would be nice :o so I sell them to my local currency .

Don't get so hung up about the bitcoin price, unless your just into this trying to make a quick buck.
BTC is long term, what happens between now and the next block reward halving is the question.

Yeah well , I'am not here to make a quick buck to be honest , but I don't want it to drop either .
Being stable or high is what I'am looking for , but going under 200$ per BTC is kinda bad for me to be honest :s

Sounds like you must have bought in at around the $200 mark, if you did count yourself lucky as lots of people got in at $500+ and are stressing now, not me.
I got my first coins at about the $350 then more just a few weeks ago at about $200, I'm not worried though, as long as i keep those coins safe in cold storage their value will go back up..... i hope  ;)
Just remember your not alone.
Nobody wants the BTC price to drop unless your shorting the BTC market.

mid 2016:

http://www.coindesk.com/spondoolies-tech-genesis-team-new-cloud-mining-service/

Okey mate , thank you for your answer
and btw , no I haven't bought any BTC to be honest , all my Bitcoins are full profit (selling Digital goods , services , sig compaign etc ...) I have nothing to lose to be honest but I would like to see it at high price so I can sell it instead of the current price  ::)

There are lots of everyday items you can buy with BTC already, why do you want to cash out?
Personally i have purchased many items with bicoin, even take away dinner and computer goods, i dont like spending them when then price is so low but hey i got to eat and sometime im short on fiat and just have to part with some of my BTC to get by.

My advise would be just hold your coins in safe offline storage, check the price each day and wait for things like the next block halving or even Gemini, the Winklevoss ETF, that small amount of coins you have could be worth quite a bit in a couple of years and all it cost you was time posting and a few goods you have sold.
Best of luck to you.

it may happen the same thing like doge, where the price go up before the halving, and then become stable and dumped again

Even if the price stays at current range, you still have nothing to lose. Hang on there for few more years, and you should see the impact of block reward halving.

"logically" only if demand remains the same.

I think and hope it would, but I just wanted to call out that point.

Maybe before  the halving I think there will be an "huge dump" ..... and obviously after a little pump.

I have just woken up so maybe im dreaming but that really you redsnOw?
The same redsnOw that was leaving this forum for good, welcome back, this forum can be a hard addiction to kick ah.
Just hope its the same old honest guy behind that account and it wasn't sold.

I'm obviously the same redsn0w  ( zero not "O"). However we are OT , return on topic thanks. What do you think ? Will the price go up or down ?

I doubt there's any good price predictor.  Supply, demand, news... none of it matters and it all matters in no proportional way.   That's why bitcoin is so super fantastic.  No one can predict it other than to predict that there will be price swings.  So far, most people of popularity haven't guessed it right.

The demand is rising because more and more people are aware of it. And even so, many people are still stand aside and watching, because it is still very risky to put large amount of wealth in bitcoin without being lost or stolen

Unless you can make sure you have all your money in your control, you will never put serious money in this thing. Unfortunately, even a very professional site like bitstamp get hacked, the chance for an average Joe to lose his coins are high

Anyway welcome back.
On the topic, logically the price should go up but i really think it depends on what happens between now and the block reward halving.
More big hacks, big coin dumps, bad news, government regulations might not go the way they should with BTC, in other words anything could happen.

I still recon the price will rise but from what base price will it go up from, thats the question.
If the Winklevoss twins ETF (Gemini) takes off then a lot of whales may throw some big money in and we could see a BTC price of $500+ per coin even beforw the halving.
All we can do is wait and see and keep the fingers crossed.

I agree security hacks are actually creating all the negative impression people have on bitcoin and that is actually worse when you have newbies. People who have just started without much knowledge in bitcoin will develop that negative thinking. And definitely we need to fresh funds and that is the most important thing.

...but at the end I think the people will think it would be better own "real" bitcoin instead own only the ETF. Or at least this is my personal opinion , what do you think about that ?

Until the block halving Bitcoins ecosystem has risen a lot, same goes for the user adoption and exchanges like ETF's where industrial money gets involved, these alone can make bitcoin prices rise tremendously and after the halving it would go up even more i guess a couple k's wouldn't be unreasonable.

are you really comparing bitcoin with doge? doge gets halvening 1293012803918231 in a year. bitcoin 1 in a 4 years.

Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-30 10:49:31 UTC (77 weeks, 1 day, 15 hours, 20 minutes)

The rock bottom of Bitcoin price is based on the actual use of it.
Bitcoin is used to transfer value between people, so lower is the exchange rate, more bitcoins are needed to transfer the same value.
As the number of merchants, users and transactions increase, the bottom must raise accordingly.
Where is the bottom I don't know, I just know it is rising.
Before or late it will meet the exchange rate and the exchange rate will be able to fall under it.

If we are lucky, speculations will keep the exchange rate higher than the rock bottom. But, if we ever hit the rock bottom, the rise would be thundering because there would not be any weak hand to shake out.

At the current exchange rate  $800K/day are enough to buy all mined bitcoins; this is $290M/year.
Or just $450M before the next halving. This is 6 time what the VC poured in Coinbase just in January 2015. What they poured in all 2013 plus 2014. This is just 1/5688 of the money the Fed printed out of thin air from December 10, 2014 to December 24, 2014 ($256 Billions). This is just a drop in the ocean.

Smart money is patient and play long games. IMHO, they are loading up already, buying any dip available under 200.
One year, 18 months are nothing for them.

But, 18 months from now, Bitcoin inflation will fall to 4.5% per year for the next 4 years. What governments would be able to have a Base Money increasing so slowly, when they have more than 100% debt/GDP (and in the GDP they count the cost of making movies, paying whores, buying drugs and government services - I think the previous categories are a bit overlapping each other). They need, like air, a fast growing Money Base, to dilute their debts and our savings. If they don't they would be forced to default. Probably they will do both.

And smart people will move to useful, not inflating, assets able to keep their value. Like gold, silver and Bitcoin.
Then you will see the start of an inarrestabile rise of the exchange rate of Bitcoin. Maybe not momentous like in 2011 or in 2013, but something like no one have seen before in their lives and no one will see in theirs in the future.

Litecoin will be halving quite soon (Aug 2015?).
Though litecoin not bitcoin, but we shall see what happens to it.

Isn't litecoin dead?

Hmm, i didn't know this, thanks
The litecoin halving will give a small indication of what could happen with bitcoins when it's time comes.

What makes you say dead?
Is it just because the price has had a big crash or other reasons?

IMO there is room for more than 1 alt coin on the market but it must have it own benifits to compete with btc.

Halving will be priced in long before it actually happens.

There is no guarantee that there will be a big dump after halving just because price spike.
There will probably be big buys just before halving, driving the price up.
Better adoption.

Miners will only dump if price goes so low they can no longer profit.
More big mining companies dropping out means diffulctly would drop, (correct me on that if wrong but i think that happens if miners drop out that diffulctly goes down)

I'm holding my coins and not spending any until the block halving. I think that's a good enough time to see where bitcoin is at and hopefully we will have seen some gains long before that but the halving will hopefully have an impact further.

It will go to $3000 approx. Two consecutive bubbles. That is what I believe at least. Might seem weird to you. Won't seem so in a few months. ;)

I am buying up now. 15x profit is worth the risk. :)

Wow , It does seem weird indeed to be honest .
I wish I was optimist like you are ... my guess is "if" it will rise , it won't go after 500$ at all :o

most probably that would be the worst thing that could happen

Let it go up.
We haven't had a proper bull run for more than a year now.