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I think the Greece will never go out from the Europe, what do you think guys ?

They obviously feel that being in the Euro isn't doing them any good and is a drain on their economy. I don't know whether they will leave or not but it'll be interesting to see if they do. I think if they do leave it could have an effect on other countries possibly thinking about it.

Greece says if they leave then expect Italy will soon follow due to their own debt situation.

I'm not clear on the EU economic bonds versus their political bonds.  Say Greece pulls out then Italy, will border crossing posts requiring passports go up along the Italian border?

More of Bitcoin owner concern, will Greek and Italian banks halt withdrawals?  Will Bitcoin benefit or has its devaluation since December 2013 precluded it as a 'safer' haven than Greek or Italian banks?

The ECB isn't going to let it happen, they've even outright stated they won't allow Greece to default and so on, the only way Greece could become independent is if the whole country decided on it.

Greenspan has a terrible track record on running his own nation's economy.

He's been wrong so often it's not even funny, but what do you expect from a man who spent his early adult years as an acolyte of Ayn Rand - that's not even a joke, the man was a member of her weird cult as a young man, and remained so until she died some three decades later.

Dangerous loon, he and his nutjob friends are why the world is in such a state.

So is it better to get out from the  europe? Maybe it will be the right decision.

No I don't think Italy will get out from Europe (at the moment I'm living in Italy). You are right when you said "More of Bitcoin owner concern, will Greek and Italian banks halt withdrawals?  Will Bitcoin benefit or has its devaluation since December 2013 precluded it as a 'safer' haven than Greek or Italian banks?"

Most probable they will "block" all the withdrawals from the banks.

I agree, Greece will never get out of Europe. :D

I think we should not listen too much to mr greenspan.
He's just an old man making noise.

Also, I think Greece exiting from europe is possible. I actually hope they do. It will cause some stress and chaos, but the longer you postpone, the harder it gets.

Greeks are taking out their fiat out of banks.

Maybe if we look at it in a different, more limited, context of what determines if Greece stays in the EU.  Many years ago I worked with an old Greek gentleman on a production floor.  Craggy features, old clothes, didn't walk well, and in the evenings he played violin with a chamber orchestra.  One day communists were mentioned in passing and he got heatedly angry, almost angry enough to spit, just with the mention of communists.  Right now the EU and the US are somewhat apart on treatment of the Ukrainian invasion.  Perhaps the Greeks feel the EU is soft on the Russians, albeit Russia no longer Communist.

Maybe Mr. Greenspan anticipated the EU getting soft with Russia for its natural gas and eventual dependance on it and the Greeks saying screw that.

A history professor one time explained that when Germany and Russia fell out, Germany's war was doomed in that Germany simply could not wage war on the scale planned without Russian petroleum.  As it was it ran its tanks on synfuel from coal.  Perhaps the same is true for the EU, albeit not war but survival.

The USA are worried about other big nations like Russia.
Greenspan should have tell the truth when he was in command, not now that he wants to set the record straight before he dies.

Yes of course they don't "allow" this thing. I'm thinking that moment when all the system will break, what will happen?

I don't know his life/history, so I can't judge him. However as I told before (my personal opinion) the Greece will never get out from the EU.

You should explain why beacuse it is not a matter of opinions but facts and probabilities. Greece has a good chance of going out of the EURO but it would stay in the EU.

It will breakup, maybe a few wars here and there between rival countries who choose to stay independent and so on, the european union is an empire no matter how they try to act and in fact, there are very few truly independent countries left out there in the world, it's all big alliances and protectorates now.

I'm not so sure about Greece reforming itself enough to keep her EMU membership. Greece due to her own geography have difficulties in collecting taxes (1 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/greeces-tax-burden-below-eu-average-says-ecbs-mario-draghi-1422270733), 2 (http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/02/05/new-government-overhauls-greek-tax-system/)) and concentrating capital in accordance with the needs of the state. Also due to the same financial constraints the question for Greece is whether it will be able to accept its much-reduced geopolitical role. Reducing the huge defence budget require an agreement with Turkey so that Greece have not to see Turkey as an existential threat anymore; however, this is easy said than done (3 (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/gr-budget.htm), 4 (http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/2015/01/31/greece-election-defense-cuts/22484505/)). Alternatively, Greece needs to find a way to become useful again to one or more great powers - as an example her recent try to court Russia - so to receive from them financial subsidies (5 (https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/greece-uses-russia-strengthen-its-position)).

I'd say it's the EU searching for their Neville Chamberlain not the US.
   

Yes of course , I think the same. It has a good chance to get out from the EU but at the end it will (surely) stay in it.

You say the Greeks are courting a Russian bailout?  My guess is the Bear is in no position to bail out anybody.  When times get tough go to war - it's a simple solution to unemployment especially in the defense economy sector.

Maybe someday after petroleum is all pumped and burned, the EU will become a de facto satellite of Russia or freeze.  Not going to see a trans-Atlantic natural gas pipeline anytime soon.

The subject line seriously made me laugh. So what if Greenspan predicts it... this has been predicted by everyone already.  Greece has proven to be financially irresponsible and most of Europe doesn't want them in the Euro zone.  Greece has a lot of making up to do in order to get back with the financial world

That's nothing more than speculation. SYRIZA has stated that they have absolutely no intention to push greece out of the Euro, and have backed away from many of their original proposals to achieve that.

Greeks are playing the Russian card since now Russia and NATO members are engaged in a new Cold War, so Greece can received its subsidies from one side or both. How about Russia further breaking up NATO weak cohesion? How far are the United States or European NATO members going deep in their pockets to prevent this from happening?

You call a future in which the EU may become a de facto satellite of Russia but the United States fought multiple wars to prevent the emergence of an hegemon on the Eurasian landmass. According to Mackinder's Heartland Theory United States have to prevent the link up of German & EU Technologies with Russian resources and Manpower just to prevent the emergence of such an hegemon

I think if Greece goes out from Europe, they will join Africa. Or Asia, if it won't work.

You're rite, Greece is already in Europe :)

Well consider the effect if Greece were to leave the EU.  Countries may view an EU breakup as a means of tightening their borders and so leave the EU as well.  If the European Union gets on the ropes then any pan-South American union is much more unlikely.

Would the Germans ever consider allying with Russians after WWII?  Germans were at the forefront of the US and Soviet space programs.  The Soviets went into Vienna having the first satellite ahead of the US.  This allowed JFK to pop a quick question of a joint trip the the moon.  NK quickly replied NO.  JFK dropped it.  Before that day's conference was over NK was already trying to backtrack on that answer.  JFK wouldn't ask again.  I suspect the Soviets were upset not only at the US at the Germans as well.  And consider the experience of the East Germans.  No.  I don't think a linkup of German and Russians is in the cards.  

It is really hard to have a monetary union without a political union as well.  Many thought the Euro would not work and this is the type of situation that they thought would end it.  See this for a great summary  (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication16345_en.pdf)  of US economists thinking on why it would not work.

Not saying that Greece should, just that what Europe has tried is really hard.

Also, agree that Greenspan has a tarnished image post 2008 crisis.

Can I ask if someone here is from Greece? I would like to receive an opinion also from him. Thanks to all the participants (I didn't think this would be an interesting thread with a lot of valid opinions).

its not about what greece wants, if nobody lends them more money they go insolvent in 9 days and nobody will lend to them as tsipras has already said he wont apply for the bailout extension which is connected to austerity, they either re issue their own currency and see it devalued and redenominate the debt in drachma or face mad max situation

Greece is too importante geopolitically to exit the Euro. That would automatically mean Greece getting closer to Russia/Iran/China, which NATO wouldn't like at all.

Greece is one of the most important ports in the Mediterranean sea, imagine how happy would Obama be if the NATO bases in Greek islands are replaced by Russian military bases.

He is right to be fair, Europe needs to unite politically, as well as but not just fiscally. Hopefully that is what will happen.

Italian minister has already said that greece is pulling shit out of their ass when they say Italy will leave if Greece leaves.
Greece is alone in this... unless they dont change their opinion before 28th its game over for them.

So no one here is greek and can tell his personal opinion (as citizen of Greece)? I think we are at the end, the system is going to fail.

Regardless of whether Greece leaves, the EMU is in big trouble. The EMU has a huge structural problem, and there's no way out. If the rest of the EU gives in to Greece's demands, Spain will want the same treatment, and after that Portugal, Italy and France as well. Continued austerity doesn't improve the Southern economies either, eventually turning them into Third World countries.

The EMU was never an economically sensible project, it was an idealistic political dream project to some and at the same time a French plan to contain Germany's economic power, and now faces harsh reality. A monetary union in such divergent economies without a full political union was simply a retarded plan, the strong economies will destroy the weaker ones due to a lack of control over national currency valuation, and then they drag down the strong ones with them. At the same time the weak economies abuse the relatively strong currency and low interest rates with irresponsible financial policies.

If Greece exits the EMU their economy will probably start growing after the initial chaos, possibly with deals with Russia and China. Greece is geopolitically important, so even if it doesn't pay off immediately, they'll be interested.


That's not what's going to happen. The differences between EU member countries are way too big to unite politically. It's completely unrealistic. It's about as realistic as Mexico and the USA joining politically.

At the end what do you think? Will the Greece get out from the Europe this year or not ?

As I wrote earlier: no because Greece location's is too important for NATO. Greece is one of the most important ports in the Mediterranean Sea. The Greek islands are full of NATO military bases. NATO wouldn't want Greece to get closer to China/Iran/Russia, which you can bet they would do if they get kicked out from the Euro.

Greece has spent outrageous amount of money on mililtary and military equipement.

Hopefully that never will happen. Most European nations fought for centuries for keeping or gaining sovereignty. Why should we give it up for a bunch of burocrats, bankers and their friends and business partners in Brusseles?

most people in this forum think that politics is choosing between democrats and republicans. They also think that if they have heard something from CNN or DW it must be the truth! So there is no point in discussions really...


But here have a hint. The problem is systemic. Even if everything doesnt collapse with just Greece it will eventually collapse. Rather soon i might say.

Oh thanks for your opinion, you are right about the mass-media and this is why I have created this thread.

Greece is asking for a new haircut but also for new loans ;D

So much more the reason to hold discussions. There is a small number of Russians here holding the fort for Russia, countering MSM "truths", so why not Greeks, who know what is going on in the country do the same for Greece.

I have a question. How is the Turkish Stream viewed/discussed in Greece? In Russia, it is said to bring further revenue for Greece, once the pipeline to the Turkish/Greek border is complete at the end of 2016, a revenue that would have previously gone to Bulgaria. Is this factored in in the Greek politics?

America's plan is to build a gas pipeline from Oman through Syria and into Europe. That's why Obama is in Syria in the first place.

one of the most laziest nationalities in euro zone... same southerners syndrom, money without work.

Have you ever been to Greece? I have, and I've seen plenty of people working their asses off. Calling all Greeks lazy is short sighted and untrue. The problems of Greece are corruption, socialism, a culture of tax evasion, lack of a decent industry sector, the Euro, and currently austerity. So yes, Greece has plenty of problems, but I wouldn't list overall laziness.

Calling Greeks for "lazy" is the official Northern European MSM doctrine to justify why the industries in Greece (and other PIGS countries - just look up, who coined up this term) went belly up and why their agriculture was uprooted (hint: it happened shortly after joining EU, and IMF was involved in the plunder).

Just watch these episodes:
"Alex": A story about Greece's international image crisis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehsxIjeRaME

"Alex" episode 2: The Lazy Greek
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ad0n-eX_cYI


Russia is actually in quite a good position to bail out friendly states. It has good financial reserve, and small, relative to its GDP, foreign debt. The main question here: should it? None of the previous cases of Russian/Soviet generosity in economic support were appreciated or beneficial for Russia.

Greece was almost a third world country a few decades ago and would go back to being a third world country if they left the EU but not if they only leave the Euro.

Interesting opinion, and if they will leave only the EU zone and create a new "currency", would it be a good idea? Or do you think the ECB will not allow "this" and other actions?

They can if they want to but I think they will suffer more if they leave the Euro.

Greece wants the other European countries to pay for what it promised before the elections. The greek made huge efforts and it is paying since they have a surplus but if they stop the reforms they will improve their situation.

I think they will not leave EU. Becouse it will be a collapse for a european union. It's same like one of the American states would leave USA. EU counsil will not allow that.

State debt is only a small part of the problem ,they will leave the Euro zone eventually

They already got a haircut, they have a budget surplus and they had growth in 2014 so things were looking up.
Their main problems are corruption, organisation ect.

they can remain in the eu without being in the euro

Of course they can leave the Euro but when T was saying he was for a greexit a few years ago, now he is not talking about it. He is waiting for the last minute because he thinks time plays for him.

At the end a lot of people changed their mind, I hope all this situation will be resolved quickly.

would love that this prediction came true..

It seems that the "Greek's situation" will not be resolved quickly. I think they should get out from the Europe and abandon the €, I know it will be difficult for them but maybe this is the best solution.