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Title: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: no141 on February 17, 2015, 03:02:27 PM What is going on in the bitcoin mining world that is having these awful swings in block time?
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: zetaray on February 17, 2015, 03:40:12 PM The difficulty is a direct result of network hashing power and a bit of luck. Instead of saying difficulty is way to hard, we should say there are way too much hashing power.
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: ScryptAsic on February 17, 2015, 03:43:29 PM What is going on in the bitcoin mining world that is having these awful swings in block time? This is just variance. It doesn't have anything to do with the fact that difficulty is 'too high'. Even if the difficulty 'matched' the hashrate perfectly (it never will because of changes in the network's luck) then it would sometimes take 41 minutes (or longer) for the network to find a block. The 10 minute block time is only a target average Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: jani on February 17, 2015, 03:48:49 PM Last difficulty increase was ~7.5%.
For that much you can attribute block discovery to be faster (in case when difficulty increases). That would be 45seconds faster. While average time between transactions will be targeted at 10mins, times between specific blocks can vary a lot. Not long ago there was no block for 1h35mins. And you have situations where you have 6 blocks discovered in 20mins. It's just how statistics works. Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: no141 on February 17, 2015, 03:53:54 PM It's so easy to forget about the laws of averages, Thanks!
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: Divinespark on February 17, 2015, 04:21:05 PM yep, its looking positively scary right now to be honest
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: LiteCoinGuy on February 17, 2015, 04:24:19 PM thats a sign that bitcoin is doomed....i heard.
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: no141 on February 17, 2015, 04:27:43 PM You guys are funny too!
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: Newar on February 17, 2015, 04:39:53 PM You guys are funny too! You must be new!*rhymefortheday* Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: Klestin on February 17, 2015, 05:54:51 PM The expected time between blocks taking 40 minutes is 10 hours, 43 minutes. Meaning more than once per day we have a block that takes that long. This will always happen and is completely normal. Sometimes blocks take seconds and sometimes more than an hour. You can take your logic, and your math, and your statistical analysis, and carry it right the hell away from this thread! How dare you interrupt my fellow users' sacred right to be confused and angry over something that is working exactly as designed and expected? Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: franky1 on February 17, 2015, 06:14:10 PM when people complain that 1 block took 40 minutes. they forget to get excited that another 3 blocks took only a few minutes
simply put not every block is going to be 10minutes.. its an "average" of multiple blocks, not a hardset rule for each block Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: inBitweTrust on February 17, 2015, 06:15:57 PM Foxpup said it best...
It's a Poisson process, with a mean of 10 minutes. So... What is the probability that the next block will be found within 10 minutes from now? 63.212%Or within 1 minute? 9.516%Or 10 seconds? 1.653%Or 1 second? 0.167%Regardless, I will join in the mortal fear that Bitcoin is doomed because investors seem to be pouring millions into new ASICs thus increasing difficulty. We are all doomed :-[ Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: Transaction2015 on February 17, 2015, 06:18:16 PM Yes some time is slow ::)
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: oblivi on February 17, 2015, 06:20:31 PM Oil immersed mining caves are coming, hashing power will go thru da roof.
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: smoothie on February 18, 2015, 01:04:50 AM "It's too hard ... Waaah"
Lol ;D Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: NEM minnow on February 18, 2015, 01:23:14 AM some say it is variance, and it is but man....... that is a long time to wait for a transaction to clear.
I bet part of it has to do with the miners dropping out. The 10 minute estimation assumes that the hash rate is rising. If it was steady it would be longer than that and if it was dropping even longer again. Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: inBitweTrust on February 18, 2015, 01:37:20 AM some say it is variance, and it is but man....... that is a long time to wait for a transaction to clear. I bet part of it has to do with the miners dropping out. The 10 minute estimation assumes that the hash rate is rising. If it was steady it would be longer than that and if it was dropping even longer again. False, if the hashrate was rising before the difficulty retarget one would assume greater than 63% of transactions to confirm quicker than 10 minutes. 10 min estimate is merely a Poisson probability where 63 % of transactions will be confirmed within 10 minutes or less. This means we should expect 37 % of transactions to take longer with a constant hashrate. The Poisson process also tells you that you should expect a rare occurrence of a confirmations taking hours even if blocks are confirming quicker than normal due to hash rate accelerating before the retarget. You are spreading misinformation when there is no need to speculate. PoW allows us to watch and see in realtime if more miners are dropping off or coming online-- https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png Bitcoin Difficulty: 44,455,415,962 Estimated Next Difficulty: 46,065,256,617 (+3.62%) Adjust time: After 773 Blocks, About 5.3 days Hashrate(?): 327,514,676 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 9.8 minutes 3 blocks: 29.3 minutes 6 blocks: 58.6 minutes Updated: 19:25 (10.5 minutes ago) When this thread was created there the data reflected a surge in hashrate and the data still reflects more miners are coming online. What this means is blocks are technically confirming slightly faster at the moment than if there was an equilibrium of hashing power. Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: Brewins on February 18, 2015, 01:39:59 AM Only 1 instance of problem, or are blocks in general taking longer to be confirmed?
As said, if it only happened once, it might be the variance thing Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: inBitweTrust on February 18, 2015, 01:42:18 AM Only 1 instance of problem, or are blocks in general taking longer to be confirmed? As said, if it only happened once, it might be the variance thing Data reflects blocks are confirming faster than the expected Poisson distribution . Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: philipma1957 on February 18, 2015, 01:44:06 AM some say it is variance, and it is but man....... that is a long time to wait for a transaction to clear. I bet part of it has to do with the miners dropping out. The 10 minute estimation assumes that the hash rate is rising. If it was steady it would be longer than that and if it was dropping even longer again. False, if the hashrate was rising before the difficulty retarget one would assume greater than 63% of transactions to confirm quicker than 10 minutes. 10 min estimate is merely a Poisson probability where 63 % of transactions will be confirmed within 10 minutes or less. This means we should expect 37 % of transactions to take longer with a constant hashrate. You are spreading misinformation when there is no need to speculate. PoW allows us to watch and see in realtime if more miners are dropping off or coming online-- https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png Bitcoin Difficulty: 44,455,415,962 Estimated Next Difficulty: 46,065,256,617 (+3.62%) Adjust time: After 773 Blocks, About 5.3 days Hashrate(?): 327,514,676 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 9.8 minutes 3 blocks: 29.3 minutes 6 blocks: 58.6 minutes Updated: 19:25 (10.5 minutes ago) When this thread was created there the data reflected a surge in hashrate and the data still reflects more miners are coming online. What this means is blocks are technically confirming slightly faster at the moment than if there was an equilibrium of hashing power. that is only so so to judge. http://btc.blockr.io/charts this chart is blocks per day. 0.00% rise = 144 blocks feb 10---142 feb 11---159 feb 12---124 feb 13---144 feb 14---160 feb 15---142 feb 16---158 7 full days should be 7 x 144 = 1008 actual is 1029 that is +2.08% since part of feb 9 should be included that actual number at 1am feb 17th is around +2.22 % Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: inBitweTrust on February 18, 2015, 01:51:08 AM 7 full days should be 7 x 144 = 1008 actual is 1029 that is +2.08% since part of feb 9 should be included that actual number at 1am feb 17th is around +2.22 % Correct, the point is we can see there is a small increase in hashing power before retarget therefore over the last week blocks have technically been confirming ever so slightly faster than expected and more miners are coming online not less like NEM minnow suggested. Most people don't understand that because of the Poisson process we should expect blocks to sometimes takes hours to confirm (albeit rarely) even if more miners are coming online and the average confirmation time is generally quicker than normal. Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: bitllionaire on February 18, 2015, 01:51:14 AM 41 minutes is not anything unusual in bitcoin, maybe more than one hour,but assuming blocks are 10 minutes by mean...
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: SargeR33 on February 18, 2015, 03:03:21 AM Well in the last 30 minutes, 6 blocks were found. This is MUCH faster than the network desires. What will happen? Well luck will balance out or we see another spike in the difficulty. Its odd that the difficulty is higher than what it was when btc was worth more only a couple months back. Not much has changed in the way of hardware either.
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: Nagle on February 18, 2015, 05:26:56 AM What's the probability that 6 confirmations take more than 2 hours?
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: tss on February 18, 2015, 12:46:52 PM hopefully some major mining conglomerates have been forced to shut down, but i wouldn't count on it.
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: Chris_Sabian on February 18, 2015, 02:38:15 PM That is just normal variance in the network. There was a block that took almost 24 hours back in 2010 I believe...
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: acquafredda on February 18, 2015, 02:40:31 PM even 40 mins beat banks anyway
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: Melds on February 18, 2015, 02:44:34 PM On top of the long blocks, I had one transaction skipped by two blocks, then anther skipped by three blocks, all on the same day. Both had the standard 10k Satoshi miners fee. That was completely ridiculous.
Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: Jace on February 18, 2015, 03:45:36 PM What's the probability that 6 confirmations take more than 2 hours? As each single confirmation is exponentially distributed (with mean = 10 minutes), the sum of 6 confirmations is Erlang-distributed with k=6, λ=10, and the probability of this sum being larger than 120 minutes is about 2.0341% (http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1-%28integrate+%281%2F10%29^6*x^5*exp%28-x%2F10%29%2F5!+from+x%3D0+to+120%29)Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: AtheistAKASaneBrain on February 18, 2015, 03:48:13 PM On top of the long blocks, I had one transaction skipped by two blocks, then anther skipped by three blocks, all on the same day. Both had the standard 10k Satoshi miners fee. That was completely ridiculous. Thats weird. I've never experienced that. What wallet did you use? Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: GigaBit on February 18, 2015, 08:56:23 PM #Mining
You're new I take... 41 minutes is rather quick or even average on big pools. Some other pools can take days to find blocks #EclipseMC but is all proportionate to hashing power. Don't mean you make less, just means you get pays less regularly. Title: Re: 41 minutes for a new block, difficulty wayyy too hard Post by: SirChiko on February 18, 2015, 09:52:56 PM I don't see any block taking 41 minutes :
https://i.imgur.com/8kkJLEY.png |
