Bitcoin Forum

I think it's starting to become clear that bears are losing their hold over this market. They try to instigate a panic with huge market sell orders or attempt to erode bull confidence with pump and dump tactics but the price still seems to be slowly but steadily pushing upwards if you filter out all that noise. Once the daily MACD goes into positive territory we could see a huge spike into the stratosphere. And I mean really huge because it will coincide with a breakout of the bullish wedge that has been forming since December 2013. I'm looking forward to the next couple of weeks. 8)

I like your theory.  
The only problem is someone/something dumps coins every morning as I drink my coffee still.  I have no idea why this happens every morning, but the day I see the price actual increase before I go to work, I will be happy about a reversal, rally, whatever.  

That statement could have been true multiple times this past year and we know what happened. I'm not saying you're wrong, in fact I have the same feeling, but that's just it: a feeling. I'd stay very cautious before we break the resistance on good volume and close at least a daily candle above it.

It's true bulls have tried before when we spiked to 680 and 480 respectively but that was too early still. But you know what they say, the third time is the charm. ;)

Once a short term bottom is established, it can take months to find new lows, doesn't necessarily mean that the market is showing signs of a reversal.
Look at what happened right after the $275 october bottom...

Still very early to say that "bear are losing their grip".

The mere fact that the slow bleeding out stopped is evidence enough that we're at a point where there's a real chance to turn the market around and enter a bull-market again. We're not at a trend-reversal just yet, but may be just at the brink of one!

Could very well be that a double bottom or lower bottom will form in a few more months from now, but I'm just sensing right now that bear hopium is running out so for the short term at least I'm optimistic. A breakout of this wedge would look very bullish though with the daily MACD going positive and the weekly MACD crossing soon after. Bears would need a little time-out after that at least.

Hoping to see a trend reversal soon, It has been more than a month since we saw those $300 range values on the exchanges. Hoping for a $350ish value also since the last time I saw those values were since last year.

I think more important here is the fundamental. As long as we can see wider adoption and more people joining bitcoin, the buying support will always be there. Thus no matter how hard the bears tried to push the price down, it will just be artificial as slowly it will go up again due to strong underlying fundamental.

No one exactly knows the trend of the future. We need to wait for the breakout signal of upward moving. Or you are a true believer, and just buy up the cheap coins.

Bitcoin market is so unpredictable that a single big news can change the way we're going. The trend is still up if we ignore the bubbles and focus on the lows, not the highs.

The thing is... "big news" don't seem to do it for Bitcoin anymore. The price will go up nonetheless if you ask me, but we shouldn't place too much hope or money/BTC on good news. This is especially remarkable since Bitcoin is a highly volatile assets otherwise.

I would love to see the reversal of the last year trend, but we are not out of the woods, just as of yet.
The last year's downtrend line is still intact.
The recent news are played on both sides, bears have: BTER exchange, US Marshall auction, ..., whereas bulls: ETF, Chinese investments, ... (you name what is missing).
There is also blocksize limit discussion somewhere in the background, played by both parties. No clear winner in the headlines.
I don't see clear direction as for now, we may as well stay in the sideways trend for a while.

You definitely don't want to rely on news these days. I follow technicals mostly nowadays to get an idea where the price is going next. I use a mixture of indicators, a little bit of EW theory for a more longer term perspective of cycles and my own intuition. I've been wrong before, but I don't create many topics here and usually I seem to make them just before a big move up. But yeah, if you want to play it safe you should wait for the breakout before buying. :)

(Cautiously) agreed, Miz4r .

I remember an interesting comment by masterluc a while ago, when the Microsoft news broke, and price only moved minimally up: he took that event (strong bullish news in terms of BTC mainstream acceptance, but market reaction only "meh") as a sign that the market still had a very bearish bias.

In my opinion, it starts to look the other way around now: another big auction, while no huge deal (the coins are worth ~12.5 days of mining), is still bearish in the sense that it adds a good chunk to the immediately available supply side. The market reaction: so far, mostly 'meh' again, but as a reaction to bad news.

I still half expect another $150 to $200 dip and re-test, but the market state slowly appears to be changing from "good news has little effect" to "bad news has little effect". We'll see if it stays like that...

I think it should be a more generalized statement in that "News has little effect" on price unless it is Earth shattering news. Gox had it's effect because it was the first large scale exchange to close and it took a shitton of people's funds, but I also think it desensitized the market against exchange failure. Bter isn't a big deal in comparison. The theft there is only worth 2 days of mining (I like that valuation basis, BTW ;) ). Long term repercussions of the Stamp hack remain to be seen (eventual insolvency or closure) but they seem to have handled it properly.

We've had two SR auctions so there may be little effect there too. The first one spurred a rally (may just be coincidence) and the second one was during downtrend. So your guess is as good as mine how this next one will go over.

^^^This.


Technicals > news



Trade charts, not news.

Some might conclude that news doesn't drive the price, but not Bitcoiners.  No.  To them this points to "changing sentimen" ::)

Maybe we are at a point for the first time in ages where good news could spark a reversal and bad news doesnt seem to be changing much.

The only positive news is that BTC only crashed 2.5% after the announcement of the 50k U.S. Marshall auction.  

It seems very compressed.

Lrn2readplox.

Nobody said news determines (or "drives") price, least of them all masterluc.

Fact is, news have a "point" effect on the market, and that point effect can reveal an underlying market bias.

Example, SR crash in late 2013: SR news hits --> panic, then sharp crash (the "point" effect of the news. meaningless to argue the crash wasn't due to SR) --> as a result of the price drop, immediate rise of buying pressure. hidden bulls salivating at the low prices. almost immediately total reversal. rally time.

The last part: that's the "reveal of the bias" aspect of news hitting. That's what (I believe) OP had in mind.

I think that's what RyNinDaCleM was referring to with "earth shattering news". At the time, the Silk Road seizure was exactly that.

Sorry for your loss.

When the forum is flooded with this kind of thread, it always signals new lows on the horizon. Over-confident cultists and bulltards are a good trading indicator for shorters.

Pointless, guys...

https://i.imgur.com/DwTJlhD.png


NLC is and will stay unignored. At least the guy has shown he has taste. The rest of you are a waste of pixels.

Sorry for your loss.

Way to ignore the standing joke that there's inverse correlation between good news and price.

Protip:  If you're flicking a switch back and forth & the light bulb stays on, it's not because someone is rewiring the switch between your toggles.
Bitcoin is a game of Blindman's Bluff--don't overcomplicate it.

Happy to see you now also learned about the reason that standing joke exists.

I'm a lot less sure about current market reaction to, say, auction news (i.e. whether it is actually a "bullish" bias change or not), than I am about the claim I made above. News do matter, in any market, otherwise there'd be no external influence on them. Problem is just that news don't matter in the way most people seem to think they do ("good news must mean price goes up!").

I'm sure you can think of more elegant ways to phrase similar insights (that the market acts a filter on the news, perhaps), but in either case: there is an interesting feedback loop between the market and the news that act upon it, even if you (for very noble reasons, I am sure) came to believe that Bitcoin is the unique market that can only ever go down, no matter what the external events are ^_^

^What you got there is another hypothesis which can't be proven shown true or false.
Not very useful if you can't tell whether good news will drive BTC price up or down.

Your explanations border on "Rain makes for bad crops when the gods are angry, and good crops when their anger was appeased."  Substitute "news" for "rain" & strike it out.
It doesn't matter.
If the gods are angry, the crops will be bad.
The gods are angry >:(

http://s12.postimg.org/um19cdcq5/mercy111.gif

  ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords

Can you feel your grip losing right now? It's slipping out of your hands man. ;D

And what loss are you even talking about? Did someone die?

Bull markets occur once enough coins/stock have been transferred from weak to strong hands. The huge transfer that occurred when we dipped to $166 was likely the last of the weak hands letting go, not being able to withstand any more losses. We haven't seen any interest to retest sub $200--there is simply not the volume to get there, and whales will not waste money trying if they can't attract much of a following when they sell.

TL;DR:  Suck it bears.  ;D

I'm not convinced of that at all. There was a squeeze of margin longs who were overleveraged. That's all I know for sure. The beneficiaries of that squeeze could just as easily do it again should market conditions dictate.

Be careful now, they might you in the as later.

Maybe, but whales need a reason to move the market to get others to follow (usually good or bad news). They can't simply orchestrate a rally or crash without a window of opportunity to act upon. It must be cost effective for them.

They needed a long bear market to squeeze the longs and create a panic over the Bitstamp news. Think of it as the final movement of a symphony. If they randomly created another crash tomorrow, not enough sellers would follow because they don't exist. There is no momentum. Play the last movement of a symphony by itself to a professional musician and it doesn't make sense without the context of the preceding movements.

I am bullish what the emboldened text is not true. If this bear market has taught you anything it is that price dictates sentiment. If the price is shoved down by a few whale traders shorting the hell out of it then sentiment becomes bearish. Any news around the time may be used by market observers like Stolfi to justify the movements logically.

There is a limit to manipulation - upwards in terms of lack of new entrants willling to buy bitcoin at 1200 dollars (bags?!) and downwards in terms of lack of sellers at sub 200 dollar prices, but the price and direction can to a large degree be set by heavy speculators.

Based on the huge volume of coins which changed hands at 160 I would say the selling has petered out. We just need technical confirmation the end of the bear market to get the momo technical traders back on board.

Do you honestly think that people with millions or tens of millions of dollars in play are incapable of orchestrating a FUD campaign? Even if you see through the ruse, you would be foolish not to sell if you think others will fall for it for no other reason than to increase your holdings by BTFD. Meanwhile, the whales gain even more market power from their profits that they can use for the next raid. NO, the bear market is very unlikely to end from grass rotts action on our part. We need a massive infusion of new capital. Fortunately I think that may be happening. All these VCs plowing money into Bitcoin start-ups would be foolish not to also take a position in the underlying commodity.

Considering we are almost stabilizing at 240, while some time ago the prices were around 210, I agree that bears are slowly losing grip

I remember not too long ago when the bears made it seem like taboo to talk about shaking weak hands out of their coins and, consequentially, letting the strong have the ability to dictate future market movements. Interesting how that mentality has been shunned out of existence these days or relished to the point of embarrassment if one brings that concept up.

this remands me on something that i heard in Star Trek

"Resistance is futile"

strange times these are.  though we're seeing small overall rises we could easily lose it all and then some in a matter of hours.

We could, but it's interesting to see the price rise this consistently. It's a sign that times may be changing now, after all. Longest post-crash sideways movement and now gradually going up. This is very good in my opinion!

Has anybody checked if this recent price rise is legit? Fooled twice by Willy and Marcus, one gets cautious.

Willy is just a scapegoat for people who bought close to the top and are looking for something to blame their 'losses' on. Stop looking for scapegoats all the time, take responsibility and do your own thinking. It's getting tiring to hear people come up with all these fantasy stories about why this or that happened. Let's stick to the known facts and watch the charts.

I am not sure you have been hugged by a bear? They do not lose their grip unless they want to  ;)

yep. I also notice slight change of sentiment. Bad news are not hurting that much, if at all. That means we may be slowly moving from negative to non-negative sentiment.  Not positve yet, as we are far from being out of the woods. But this is encouraging at least.

A bull has the ability to smash a bear hug and body slam them into oblivion. A few more bulls will be killed before thousands of bears are slaughtered.

bulls are colorblind, so no wonder they only see green dildo-candles and ignore everything else... bears are easily trained and can be a good thing to keep to entertain public in circus... so the best place to be in is always up there and profit from both...

How's life going bears? Still hanging on to that short? ;D

No shorts, but still bearish longer than a few weeks  8)
At 360, I'll be that guy swimming against the current  ;D

360?! =D

I posted this like three weeks ago in some thread here https://i.imgur.com/9hUWB7b.png

Coinfisqated bitcoins..... yet this isn't all bad, governments have validated crypto in general by their greed, if it's worth selling, then it's must have some value, right? ;D

what good is though theres only so many coins to dump....unless of course faked exchange and fake coins are being dumped.

though the number of buys v sell over the main exchanges over time should be able to show this.....

Well betting on 360 seems too obvious to me, that's where the price will meet the long term downtrend since Dec 2013. You won't be swimming against the current then because there are many others betting on that one. I think this upswing will last longer than a few weeks, a few months at least with a big fight at 360 and a top above 400. Then I will be the one swimming against the current. :P

This is interesting. My main scenario is reaching $350 (to 360) and after that revisting current price level (~$220) for some more 2012 price (hovering) action. Then slow and steady rise.

But there is also a chance, that the resistance at $360 is not as strong as most of us think (see LIN vs. LOG charts). It will be fascinating to watch.

Still would love to see $120 - but chances are getting smaller every day. Maybe a flash crash while hovering around $220? We will see.

The dynamic of this forum has certainly changed in the last couple of weeks. We've gone from "RIP Bitcoin" to hopeful threads in the blink of an eye.
These are still uncertain times, but the picture is starting to look better :)

Well the market has turned, smart money enters the market

Every prior harbinger of BTC's "imminent death" has been proven wrong.

I think the Bears have had their day(s), and the Huge Rally is finally starting to form.  :)

I believe no matter how they manipulate the market, eventually it is still the fundamentals that is going to dictate the direction where the price is heading. If the buying support is strong, I'm sure every new coins that made its way to the market will be bought. And talk about adoption rate, participation and support from the community, new joiners, fresh funds, all these do a make a difference. And the bears will certainly have a hard time trying to manipulate the price.

The Bears could totally get wiped out.
Wouldn't be a bad thing  though.

Got know when to fold em in these times. If ya live by the shorting sword in a changing market, you'll get punked out on your ass.

lots of qe means less fresh funds are needed!

It will never happen, after every bubble some bulls turn bear.
What a plague...

Wouldn't count on that though. We should still stay sideways trend for some time, probably till early summer. I don't see for now any fundamental reason for moving the price upwards.

The fundamental reason is the average (bitcoin) Joe now has the funds again, after the expensive months and the traditional Januari and February dip in everything connected to finances. It's a global (western) trend that people buy much less and cash out much more in those months. The price will rise to a more realistic value, 300-350. Yet the only thing that concerns me is government regulation, selloffs by agencies, (price) manipulation by whales/government and offcourse maybe some other crypto that takes over, allthough that won't be in a instant, so pay attention I'd say ;)

^Way to not see the REAL elephant in the room:

http://s28.postimg.org/uwg16fiv1/Capture.jpg

Y'all fell right into the FED's honeypot.

Well, the average Bitcoin Joe is now still bombed with the negative news. I would rather expect average Joes to be weak-hands dropping the Bitcoins right now, so that smart money, be it whales or whoever else, can take them over. To me that is not the fundamental I am looking for.

The biggest concern is probably how they could actually set off a series of hacks like what happened this month to erode the confidence of bitcoin investors. And talk about availability of fund, you can have as many as possible fiat getting printed and then used it to buy bitcoin. Think of it, it's kind of scary to imagine what could happen.

Tomorrow on CoinDesk: "U.S. Government printed billions to buy 51+% of BTC. And then printed more to cover the printing expenses. And then printed more to pay for the accounting involved in tracking the expenses. And then printed more so they could recover from loss of buying power caused by printing money."

you just gave them idea, print money and set a buy wall @ 500 usd, and put sell wall (with bought coins) @ 600 $, and since they obviously can print how ever they need, they could make a fortune without any effort.
it seams that bears are just waiting the price to get higher so that they would buy, so its safe to say that they will just dump whatever they buy soon after, and thats why theyre waiting for a safe bullrun.
otherwise they would get in sooner, but clearly they are not the waiting type.

cheers

They don't have to do this.
Just call bitcoins as proceeds from crime and seize them.  :)

I dont think its the bears, its just simply returning to a reasonable price after the price was fraudulently manipulated to $1000+ by gox.

Pretty much.  And make holding them a capital offense, so's we could shoot Bitcoin criminals & economic saboteurs on sight.

Ha ha. That would be a bit extreme.
They can just tax you into submission.

Bitcoin parasites are typically libertardian, thus deadbeat tax cheats.  They'll just continue to be a burden on society, mark my words.

I have probably paid more tax than you ever will NLC  ;)

^Not for the lack of trying.  Never said you Bitcoiners are good at what you do.

Its done this before when it crashed from $30 to $2.