Bitcoin Forum

With the auction of his bitcoin coming:
http://bitforum.info/t/third-auction-for-ulbrichts-coins-scheduled/305

Do you think, Ulbricht can easily get back his coins if he is still running Silk Road right now?

I mean if he will be released right now, and start from the scratch again, how many years will it take to reach the amount of the coins he lost?

I hope a big company will get the biggest share of this auction.

It would take quite awhile for him to recover those coins I think.

These guys must have a lot of work. They are auctioning coins on the daily these days.

Not much maybe a year , as seeing how many people have joined the btc community and the stretch of media power

They've probably hired a guy to audit seized coins 24/7 for good prices lol.

He is not even trying to get back the bitcoin. He has consented to the sale of the coins, and his plan is to then get the money received from the sales of his bitcoin.

I wonder why would he leave all those coins in the open or on his laptop like that.
Even though he would never have expected to be caught, but even if he was, it was best to leave a few million in a paper wallet hidden somewhere, or maybe he already does .

Will the hype:

1. Increase bitcoin price
2. Drop bitcoin price
3. Keep it steady

What do you think?

It will take alot of time and probably will be in eyes of several big people now if he collect hat mch

Keep it steady, as all the non-noob's know it might be a usual dump , they would buy more and cheap it might effect the price for a little while but it will get back soon

Ross Ulbricht’s was a pioneer of sorts and is a hero to some. But he wasn't very smart and had terrible OPSEC.

He was trading on Mt. Gox in very large amounts and on btc-e.com. Not sure if they personal funds or not.

He has zero chance of getting any money from the sale of btc by authorities. He is going to prison for 30 years.

I think it will keep it steady, meaning no effect on the price of bitcoin.

This is the worst kind of theft... using police your own taxes paid for to imprison you and steal your money..

Then they wonder why they are called pigs.

Did they confiscate all of his coins, are they any large amounts lost, unaccounted for?

Police is there only there to enforce the law, they didnt create it, on the other hand, they do tend to bend it quite often..
I just cant wait for that auction to be done with, theres so many speculation on how it could affect the price, its anoying.

cheers

With Silk Road going down, there are a lot of competitor sites which have gained market share.
It will be tough for him to win it back, even if he is released.

I dont think that auction can have any significant impact on price. Even if all coins would be dumped price would be back to 250ish in few days. We have stabilty and slight uptrend so I feel very optimistic about price.

3600 BTC are generated every day. 50,000 BTC is just 14 days supply. Not much impact.

This is going to crash the price hard...

Hopefully not..lets see how it effects the price.!
The only reason it will effect the price is if the people holding the coins decide to sell it. And I doubt they would participate in the auction just to sell it.

I think it will have a decreasing effect on the short-term price, because auctions are mainly used to clear assets ASAP, therefore the auctioneers would probably be willing to sacrifice some return for expediency in sales.

In the long-term however, it should make the price go up (IMO) because the Bitcoin auctioned off will have been accounted for and therefore represent a portion of the currency that was once used for illicitly perceived purposes which is now "cleansed" or at least marketed with the blessing of regulating and law making authorities. Psychology does play an important part in market behavior, so this is the reason for my belief.

I obviously could be wrong due to the simplistic reasoning, but if anyone disagrees or would like to add onto the opinion I'm definitely open to being proved wrong.

The clearance of the overhang is good. However, the 50,000 is too small size for the long term price of BTC.

I agree, that will work more towards psychological effect rather than having an fundamental implications. In the long run, provided that the auctioned off coins stay put and remain in the winners possession and does not get introduced back to the market, it should be positive overall. Unless the person has another plan and decides otherwise to auction off the coins and take profit once the price has hit his target level.

How much more btc does ulbricht have on his account?

Nobody knows how much he has in his paper wallets or hidden wallets. But he had 150 thousand, on his system which is being auctioned.

Is the present surge because of this?

That is not beyond the realm of possibility imo but not sure it would be because of this, they stole the coin in the first place not sure they care about the price difference of a few dollars.

To answer about Ulbricht i am not sure he would easily get them back but in the end if he was doing what he done first time around with better security procedures then i see no reason why he would not make a large amount of them back.

What would be the point though he was to greedy and could not leave with tens of millions the btc was wasted on him. 

I would say probably not. I would say that the present surge is likey due to the WSJ article discussing the potential for bitcoin (which happens to be on the front page).

Generally speaking the price of bitcoin tends to fall ahead of these auctions because of the fact that additional supply will soon enter into the market that was not previously there

It had negligible effects last time. The first auction certainly caused some willies but ultimately turned out to be a non event. The market has gotten used to the idea now.

Agree there is no crash coming because of the auction, the auctioned coins will be sold to exchange or a investor who is not in it for a quick few dollars profit but looking long term.

Same opinion doing it legit would be a challenge for Ross
Two days till March 5th will need to keep track
The auction will happen from 8am to 2pm EST, and preregistration is needed for those who want to participate. Just like the 1st and 2nd auction, bitcoins will be auctioned per 2000 or 3000 block.

Oh, I'm not so sure. That has not been the pattern with other sales. It does make sense because you are increasing supply, however it may be that the buyers at the auction are different than exchange buyers. I think these auctions appeal to a buyer who wants a lot of coins and has no patients for the risk and complexity of exchanges.

If anyone has already put a bid in for the auction. It's probably well below the current market price ($289), given the $50 price rise over e past few days.

The last time they got dozens of bids. So this time also we can expect similar numbers. It is impossible to predict the selling price. But if there are a dozen or so bidders, then we can safely assume that these coins will be sold at a premium.

I wonder who the average business person that would be bidding on this much BTC would be.  Like, would they be day trading, annalists, etc?

No, this can't possibly crash the price lol .. the market has already factored these coins into circulation

I seem to remember the price fell after every other US Marchall auction.
Also, if anyone announces that they got coins below market value, that will make the price decrease, in fear of a dump.

I do not think a crash is coming. Looking at price history. Auctions only has short term effects on price. Not influential to the big picture.

The size of the auctioned coins is too small compared to existing coins.

How did the market reacted at the previous auctions ?

As far as I can tell, the pump we had the last few days was to set the bitcoins' auction price higher..

The recent pump is due to the BIT OTC Fund being approved by Finra. It has very little to do with the auction.

Some believe it is the auction that is causing manipulators to pump the price so they will have to buy it for more money. Not sure if thats true.

Yes, I know, that also contributes to the rise, tho I don't see some massive trading going on on Coinbase exchange, it's volume is still around btc-e's and bitstamp's..  ~17000BTC

The market actually fell a few days before the first auction.
There was a possibility that somebody would pick up those coins for a song and then dump them in the exchanges to make a quick profit.

Who won?
I heard they had 14 bidders?
http://bitforum.info/t/us-marshals-bitcoin-auction-got-34-bids-from-14-participants/384/1

Who joined? Excited if Draper will again get most of the coin.

Ulbricht is crying in his cell.

What I know is that SecondMarket didnt won, itBit won third place. 1st and 2nd place winners were not yet revealed.

Oh how I wish I had the money to participate in this auction *sigh*

Can someone please tell me what is the relevance of the auction to the bitcoin price.
I heard something that this would help in some bullish runs, but can someone maybe explain in a brief way and the easiest manner why the auction is a big deal for everyone.

It isn't relevant to the market price. The run up to the first auction was an uncertain period. Now it's settled down.

It is a big deal for gleaning sentiment. Moronic doomsters have consistently predicted that people would buy them up and dump them instantly.

What has turned out is that serious players have been buying them for serious long term uses.

Out of the 14 bidders, is there someone outside from Bitcoin-related business?

I think all 14 bidders identities were not also revealed.