Bitcoin Forum

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You forgot never, and NIRP

I think the market has already priced in for a rate increase. It's just a matter of time that this happens.

I don't think the collapse of oil will have as much negative effect on rates as you may think. Cheaper oil frees up ordinary income to be used to buy things, which stimulates the economy. When the economy picks up the Fed will raise rates.

Well said. I also vote that they most likely will never increase rates by any reasonable amount (say > 3%) and we even stand a possibility of negative rates. The NIRP is expanding, get ready for it :P

Small adjustment like interest rate is irrelevant now, the base money supply has increased by 500% since 2008. If GDP increase 5% per year, it will take about 30 years to reach that amount of money supply, and they have done it in 6 years, so they will not need to print money for the next 24 years, is that possible?

Since all of those money is already in the hands of commercial banks, we could imagine that there would be huge inflation due to 5x more money out there, but there was no inflation. This indicated that no matter how much money they print, money just can't get into the economy in any meaningful way. In fact banks have raised the criteria to get a loan, and the real income of the whole society is going down due to less loan and less consumption

Now people's mindset have changed to saving, that will last for decades, and any tightening of money supply will trigger a recession for sure

How long do you think till new crysis when they raise the rates?

Oil isn't going to $20 (you can quote me on that).  America will keep pumping the old wells but investment has fallen so much already that production is already bound to fall.
People talk abut efficiency savings, that is marginal and overcome by a growth in population.

I expect $100 oil within the next 2 years, it might not stay that high, but I think it will reach that high.

People were forced into default, and that was planned, to transfer the house ownership to banks, and then central banks print some money to buy it to support the house value

Anyway all those money are created out of nothing, it is a race between banks playing more tricks and people finally realizing the scam and abandon the currency like what happened in Mississippi bubble. But unlike during Mississippi bubble, now there is no gold convertibility, it is difficult to discredit fiat money at this stage

before the btc halving imho

Rates will not rise until the market tears the whole thing apart.

there is too much debt in the US and if the FED raises rates it will surely burst the stock bubble and probably start a new recession. If you read their statements they don't say that they are going to raise rates..they say they may start THINKING of raising rates, which means they are not even considering a rate rise for now..

Crude collapsing towards $20?
That doesn't look like happening any time soon.

Interesting diagram. And to be honest I think current low oil prices are only beginning of further drops but definitely not to $20 per barrel. More like $40 in my opinion is max price drop than could happen.

We are not heading to $20 dollars a barrel this is the same kind of statement like bitcoin is going to $10,000 or $1 they are just not happening lol

Keep up the good work the fed i have 0 interest in these are the biggest scammers in history

We have experienced bitcoin's volatility.
Oil is relatively more stable. It has been quite some time since we have seen $20/barrel.

I think for now it's too early to tell. The fed likely won't touch rates until summer anyway, and quite a bit can happen in the intervening months. If the economy gets worse they'll probably keep rates as-is. But if it keeps plodding along at the current pace, they might set the rates to 1/4%, just so they can officially lift off from zero.

I'd say they'll delay it to 2016, we're already in 2015 and it's still not clear where the whole oil crisis is going.

Oil 'was' considered stable. Then huge drop happened last year and now it is unknown for us if oil will regain its previous price of around $100.

Actually I think they will raise the rate to a very high level, since there will never be a liquidity crisis in the foreseeable future. Now banks are sitting on a mountain of cash that is enough for the future 30 years, and those cash will earn them huge amount of interest in a high rate environment

So, when higher rates kill the expansion for normal business, it generated huge income for banking class, so the one that is most benefited from a higher rate is banks. They will become the major spender and driver for economy

I think oil will hover around 60 for the next 6 months pending the strategy of OPEC. I don't think the US will, or can, raise rates. The 'recovery' is largely illusory and any growth is achieved by pruning or by theft from other nations.

They only way I see a raise is to stop a large inflow seeking perceived safety (maybe a geopolitical event like Grexit, war etc). At this stage the game might very well be up and its every country for themselves.

It is all in relative terms.
There have been oil shocks as well, with the price increasing rapidly.
The current fall is something new.

The las FOMC shows they won't raise rates soon.

I would love to see 20 dollar oil. Low energy cost can bring about a boom due to funds being freed up for other uses. Transportation costs also drop so consumer goods would be cheaper as well.

Look at the strength of the dollar to see where oil will go. If the dollar continues to rise oil will get cheaper.

Oil will not go down to $20.  It costs far more than $20 to extract a barrel of oil from the ground, especially in America with all the frackers.
Essentially only a few cheap and easy play remain viable long term at $20 a barrel, it would be below the historical low prices and cannot be maintained.

The price of gasoline has been steadily rising recently in America, figure that one out, so that won't be helping the economy.  Demand will also rise if gas prices fall, so expect a sharp rise when production falls and demand rises.

Guys, the oil collapse saved their greedy arses for now, however in the long term that will be disruptive for US oil businesses that employ millions of people.

So yes the nearly purchasing power increase will be hidden by the real problems of more job losses when the oil sector implodes.

So they will just do QE4 to prop up the oil price once again, that is inevitable. So say goodbye to rate hike, and embrace the upcoming hyperinflation worldwide...

Starring: Japan and Greece , *grabs popcorn*

Yes they are in the short term, but all the mal-investment in the oil sector will be lost as the mainstream media is the most unreliable investment advisor out there. If the bubble burts those investors will lose all their money, and the workers in the oil sector will lose all their jobs.




If they don't raise the rates then they cant do it in the future ever, actually they already passed the event horizon, the debt is too big, if they raise rates, they go bankrupt, if they don't they go in hyperinflation (slowly), dragging all the reserve-holders in it aswell. If BRICKS drop the USD, then it will be even faster.

The only way out of this mess for the USA is to cut the military spending to Switzerlands's military size, and all their social spending too on those shady spying stuff and do a benefit to the world.

Also then they can switch to gold standard, and improve their currency, and in a deflationary system you don't need pensions, so they can drop that too.

So in 1 world, libertarianism can save them...

BUT

Ofcourse they won't do that, they are now preparing to attack Syria and Venezuela, so the war machine continues...

There's no way they will heavily cut military spending and/or close bases and retreat. If they do that many governments will collapse and there will be a power vacuum the size of 100 elephants' anuses put together

Russia and China are not going to disarm due to a lack of funds lol...  Why on Earth would you think something insane like that?

There are too many special & powerful interests' that will make sure the U.S stays in its current position.

We live in an age where technology is a weapon and guess who owns patents, and produces the best technology?

If they are always 10 steps ahead of you, how can you remove or topple them ? JMHO

China is already number 1 economy in the world. And guess what China does the best? Steal patents and does not care about international copyright law.
If you have something good they will steal it and implement it in their toys. So why work hard and research when you just simply borrow everything?

Yep, especially now since the tensions with Russia and Syria are getting big.

Also they are not thinking about cutting other social(ist) spending aswell, pension, government worker salary, education,etc.

The deficit hole is getting bigger and bigger, so they will need to invade again to loot some country.

Probably Venezuela since it has oil.


I dont agree with patent laws, its bogus and monopolistic. Copyright, trademark and trade secrets are ok for intellectual property, but patents are just monopolistic and there are million things that can go wrong, like in the 1800's where thief inventors steal eachother's invention...

Also trade secrets should be kept secret, industrial espionage is not nice, and that should be heavily punished, but these patent laws in itself are really useless...

Yeah I think another war is imminent. The drums have been sounded for some time now, all you gotta do is turn on some T.V:)

No, China is not the  number 1 economy in the world.
Yes, The patents protection is awful  in China, it resist innovation, we can't copy everything, it's not a good thing.

There will always be counter pressures on price movement regardless of direction. I would love to see it drop to $20 but I don't expect it. The dollar would have to rise dramatically for that to happen. A stronger dollar and lower energy costs are a great thing for any economy so while I don't expect it I would love to see it.