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Just checking to see if anyone has heard anything from BFL about the SC's.  I pre-ordered one, and paid with BTC, but haven't seen any news annoucements or really anything yet.
Are they still going to hit October?

It is definitely too early to expect anything as the wafer is probably not even ready yet, I expect some updates and pictures in mid-September.

No... Take a look at their track record having delivered not even one single unit on time.

I am as interested in an answer (as opposed to speculation) to this as you are.

However, consider moving your question here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=87934.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=87934.0), and locking/deleting this thread.

The OP in BFL's thread states that any questions about the SC should be posted there (and will be answered there). There is little point in starting a new thread for a question that can easily be discussed there; surely there are more than enough BFL threads kicking around already.

Regardless weather it comes in October/November/December/January there is still nothing that can compete with it, and once it's out all the GPU and FPGA miners will be gone.

i cant think of a scenario where, in the second bfl delivers the first units, all GPU and fpga miners switch of their gear immediately ....

You made this up yourself, I didn't say it like that.

Once all current orders are filled and difficulty is 350TH, then they will be gone for sure :)

350TH at CS somewhat average price of $35/GH costs over $12,000,000

i'll be surprised to see that amount of hashing power coming online any time soon after their ASICs are released. maybe i'm underestimating mining community

Assuming their specifications are accurate (which I doubt they will be - remember the original BFL single?) and they all units on time (again, I seriously doubt it - see my above comment about this), GPU and FPGA will probably still be around for a while, especially those with free electricity.

Maybe you are forgetting this.

But if the ROI for a gpu is about one year right now, and the asic's make the difficulty 20 times higher, the ROI for gpu becomes 20 year so probably not many new gpu rigs will be build just for mining.

It only takes 3000 people with an average spend of $3k to reach that capacity. There are people already that have 6 MiniRigs and will convert these into ASIC Minirig to have 6TH, so that already gives just one person 2% of the quoted 350TH power, and there are many others like that :)


Assuming you have 2Ghash from 4 x HD7970s, with current network speed of 15TH, you are looking to make $3k per year.
With 350TH difficulty and reward block halving, you are looking to make $70 per year, in otherwords you will make more by selling the GPUs before they go obsolete, and for the $600 you get from them, buying 4xBFL Japalenos that will give you 14Ghash.

Regarding free electricity, they are probably 1%, but the Simple fact is they are still better off selling their GPUs, and buying an ASIC that will give 3.5Ghash for $150.

Three months and counting BFL!!! 8)

I can't reveal my sources, and it's been difficult to get confirmation of parts of this story, but this is what I've heard.

• The mage that is building the SC masks was riding his unicorn to work last week when he was jacked up by a band of renegade Keebler elves.
   
  
• The unicorn fell on him so he couldn't use any spells and the elves messed him up pretty bad.  (He builds optical masks so his specialty is Illusion - do I have to explain everything?)  He finally managed to use his ring to summon an earth elemental and drive the little cookie making demons off.  But they captured his unicorn.
   
• So now he has to use spellpower to get to work.  Bottom line, things will be delayed 3 months or so.
  
  
• There is some good news though!  A random comment by the cleric that was healing his wounds led him to realize how he could couple the hashing algorithm with one of the frozen planes of hell to reverse the computational thermodynamics of the process.  This means that every time you find a share, you will also generate a few joules of electricity.  With an SC mini-rig in the backseat you should be able to drive your Prius from San Francisco to New York without ever stopping for gas!

I know; some parts of this are hard to believe.  But my source has been reliable in the past.  And, if you knew anything about semiconductor design and manufacturing, it's far more plausible than BFL's story.

As I feared, this is yet another BFL thread that has degenerated (nice story, though). They all seem to be destined for this fate. Maybe I should just give up and order some more BFLs already ...  :-\

Fixed that for you...

Also, very entertaining story =D

Godwin's law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law)

Are there really 3000 people out there ready to spend average $3k on none existent gear though? Is this sensible?
I can see 100-300 tops. Again, I could be significantly underestimating our little mining industry.

There is never a shortage of people wanting to make easy money :)
I know there are people spending $100k each so $3k average is a sensible estimate.

10 people spending $100k would equal 333 spending $3k.   that's $1mil
lets say there are other 1000 people spending $1k. that's another $1mil
lets say there are other 1000 people spending $300, that's $300k

total nicely rounded is $2.5 million . lets top it up with another $1mil to argue that either 20 people spent $100k or additional 1000 people spent another $1k

$3.5 million / $35 average cost per GH = 100TH

Well my story was the only way they ever would have delivered on schedule.  How's that strategy of ordering more gear from BFL working out for you?

Two weeks (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLcjUmBncZ8)