Bitcoin Forum

At current difficulty of 2,036,671.08 and current price of $9.50/BTC here are some things to note:

1. One month of mining at current difficulty with 1TH/s would produce approx. ฿15,013.09 or $142,624.31

2. With current pre-orders there stands to be about TEN 1 TH/s rigs already. So 10 TH/s of mining power.

3. Current network hashrate is 14.6 TH/s.

4. Difficulty will at least double with these figures.

5. with the block reward halving the perceived value in dollars and difficulty will be x2.


** I would say interesting times are ahead with the new mining hardware to come on the scene in the next 6-9 months and further down the line.

Running my gpu's into the ground. :D

Me too :)

Same here as for my FPGAs :)

i think you may be off on the amount of 1TH/S rigs. I hope you are right, as I have a couple on order. But, the singles are the ones that are selling like hot cakes.

You ordered at least two 1 TH/s rigs?

Wow...the bitcoin difficuty is going to blow up like crazy!

Hasn't BFL taken a few million dollars in pre-orders?
We're talking 100TH/s if they meet their targets.
If they meet their targets.

nope as i recall it was only about 300K to one milion ?

It was 50000BTC in the first 48 hours, obviously that doesn't include all the people who paid by bank wire (and since BFL will refund bank wires but not BTC purchases, there were a lot I think...)

Just a thought... would BFL be so evil as to take everyone's non-refundable btc, ride a market panic bubble and cash out? Sure, we've seen some info on the ASIC's, but beyond a press release and some other info (possibly FUD) nobody has seen one of these in the wild, and they are delivering the product in TWO MONTHS?? 

Now, as for the OP... 1TH/s will mean nothing if ASIC rolls out in full force, it will just change mining by an order of magnitude.  1TH/s will be the new 1GH/s.

Dont think so .... more of 40GH == the new 1GH. Since 1TH will cost u about 30K; I just don't have that at my bank account :(

The consequences? As everyone switched from KH to MH and GH at the CPU->GPU transition people will then switch to GH/TH at the ASIC transition...
that is IF such asics ever exist...

I know my math isn't correct there, just used that to show the transition up by an order of magnitude.  Right now, my 3 Ghash/s includes $1600 worth of specialized hardware, I could dump it and spend $1200 on an SC when they actually ship, buy $400 worth of Jalapenos (2) and have 47 Ghash/sec. for the same money.  Point being that you are basically adding a zero and some change.  Wait did anybody follow that? Not sure if it makes sense when re-reading it... Once ASIC is adopted, there will still be level playing field just upped by an order of magnitude. Wash, Rinse, Shift Decimal, Repeat.

If that was your point, saying 1 Th will be the new 1 Gh isn't the way to state it since 1 Th = 1000 Gh (not 10 Gh).

Yep, I think that the 40GH/S will be the new 1 Gh/s Since 1300.00 is close to what it costs to purchase a 1 GH/S today and in october a BFL sc single. The ones that will make out well (If they exist and ship on time) are the early receivers, obv. But, eventually, what you can make today with 1 GH/s will be the  same with a 40 GH/S in the near future.. Dollar for dollar, I think that they will be very close as it is today...

Just thinking out loud...

I have a "few" on order also.....

just sayin.

I am hoping to purchase some of those aswell in the future let them know how they turn out for you!

Do not forget the severely decreased cost of power in your numbers. Looking at value of equipment is only one aspect of the equipment change over.

yours were included in the op's numbers, I think. Mine were just put in the last day or two...  Also, It will be interesting to see  how BFL will send the orders out. I know that they said that 1/3 of the orders will go to upgrades 1/3 to new orders 1/3 random but how will that exactly work? will they make one SC mini and then ship? or wait til they get all the first orders put together and send out at the same time..

I have a feeling that BFL doesn't want to shock the difficulty.. I would be surprised if they released more than 6 TH/S the first month....

My question is:Are they talking about the first initial delivery? From other posts, I gather that BFL is expecting the chips in October still, but how long will it take them to put each machine together? Im betting that the first orders don't shipped out til the very end of October, if we are lucky....

AR

Three

Interesting information.

Thanks ;)

6-9 months before they start shipping.. That seems a bit more realistic...

For whatever my prescience is worth, I don't see 1TH becoming the new 1GH until at least early-mid 2014.

1TH today is too cost-prohibitive for many.

Actually, $750 worth of GPU will get you 1GH (One 7970 can do 600Mh and they retail for about ~$450.) which works out to 1.3MHs/$
$600 worth of Butterfly labs will get you ~830MHs (BFL Single) which works out to 1.38MHs/$
$15295 worth of Butterfly labs will get you ~25GHs (BFL Mini Rig) which works out to 1.63MHs/$

The BFL Jalapeno claims 3500MH/s for $149 which works out to 23.5Mhs/$. Four times the performance for one quarter of the price.
If the BFL Single has its FPGA core(s) running at 200Mhz, they only need to boost that to 800Mhz (or use 4 ASICs in parallel) which is feasible.
There are companies which specialize in converting FPGA designs to ASICs and then sharing space on wafers with other customers in order to produce small batch sizes economically. It seems feasible that the COGs on the Jalapeno ASIC(s) could be lower than $149.

All that being said, I think 16GH/s will be the new 1GH/s.  :P

whats up with your avatar, premine all the coins?

really the argument here is how much the network hashrate will increase, someone who said 1TH/s the new 1GH/s means they think it will be 1,000x hashrate. you think just 16x which is more realistic

Long term strategy- will let you keep mining profitably for over a year after revenue drops below $2.50/ GH day.  Even if ASICs don't cause it to drop below that point (which it sounds like it will), the block reward halving certainly will.  Building up insurance now for 95% pps is a pretty sweet deal if you ask me.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99643.0

There was a fad in the alternate currency world to pre-mine some coins in the genesis block, release the block chain, promote the currency, and hope to profit from the pre-mine. My avatar is just hyperbole for this subject. ;)

i think half the coins would be more realistic :P