Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: evoorhees on August 02, 2012, 08:25:57 PM



Title: ****$10****
Post by: evoorhees on August 02, 2012, 08:25:57 PM

BAM, $10 bitches!


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: jwzguy on August 02, 2012, 08:28:44 PM
 :)


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: Vod on August 02, 2012, 08:32:02 PM

BAM, $10 bitches!

It started climbing after Bitcoinica shut down - is that a coincidence?

(Not trying to start anything - serious question - I'm all for higher values)


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: epetroel on August 02, 2012, 08:40:50 PM

BAM, $10 bitches!

It started climbing after Bitcoinica shut down - is that a coincidence?

(Not trying to start anything - serious question - I'm all for higher values)

I'd say quite possibly yes.

With bitcoinica, if you thought bitcoins were going to go up, you could buy them (leveraged if you wanted to).  If you thought Bitcoin was a giant ponzi and you wanted to short them, you could do that too.

Without bitcoinica, if you think bitcoins are going up, you can still buy them.  But if you think they are going down, you now have no way to short.  Of course you can sell what you have, but that eliminates a whole swath of people who want to short and don't have any bitcoins.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: jwzguy on August 02, 2012, 08:50:01 PM
****$11****


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: yochdog on August 02, 2012, 08:51:44 PM
****$11****

holy fuck


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: jwzguy on August 02, 2012, 08:53:48 PM
Might be time to take out that 5.5% bank loan and stop shorting BTC yoch.
Disclaimer: not that it's any of my business.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: edd on August 02, 2012, 08:55:37 PM

My thoughts exactly. I'm more than a little concerned about the ramifications.  :o


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: 01BTC10 on August 02, 2012, 09:02:29 PM
BTCoom!!!


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: kiba on August 02, 2012, 09:12:21 PM
Must be a bubble!


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: paulie_w on August 02, 2012, 09:18:47 PM
do we know _ANYTHING_ about why?


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: kiba on August 02, 2012, 09:19:23 PM
do we know _ANYTHING_ about why?

Probably not?


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: brunozisterer on August 02, 2012, 09:20:13 PM
Market Cap >100,000,000 USD


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: bitcoinstarter on August 02, 2012, 09:33:04 PM
oh hell ya!  ;D


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: yochdog on August 02, 2012, 09:37:01 PM
But if you think they are going down, you now have no way to short.

Borrow Bitcoins. Sell Bitcoins. Congrats, you are now short.

Seriously, I LOLed about this......


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: dovewing2000 on August 02, 2012, 09:56:15 PM
But if you think they are going down, you now have no way to short.

Borrow Bitcoins. Sell Bitcoins. Congrats, you are now short.

Seriously, I LOLed about this......

That's just one part of short... you wait til it goes below 10 and buy back the coins.. and u keep the difference.. that's the short...


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: check_status on August 02, 2012, 09:57:11 PM
Market Cap >100,000,000 USD
You should use the American trillion instead.  :P

So, how many pre-ordered the BFL ASIC SC at ⊅6? If they waited they could've bought 2.   :D


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: unclemantis on August 02, 2012, 10:02:18 PM
11 12 13!!!

I sold a few at 9.89. I am keeping hold of my bitcoins!


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: herzmeister on August 02, 2012, 10:04:11 PM
up uP UP !!!1  ;D


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: paulie_w on August 02, 2012, 10:10:42 PM
never selling.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: proudhon on August 02, 2012, 10:29:18 PM
I'm gonna buy a ton of Steam games now.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: knight22 on August 02, 2012, 10:40:51 PM
Probably a bubble (hopefully not)


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: HostFat on August 02, 2012, 10:51:41 PM
I think that something is changing.
Most speculators and investors are finally understanding one important thing.
An hacking attack and/or a bad news about a website/service that manage Bitcoin it is NOT something related to the protocol/project.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: bitcoinBull on August 02, 2012, 11:20:10 PM

Above $10, one-dollar price increases become less and less noteworthy. Log-scale people, Log-scale!


I'm gonna buy a ton of Steam games now.

Alpaca socks for me (are they still available?)


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: niko on August 02, 2012, 11:26:10 PM

My thoughts exactly, minus the "holy".




Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: check_status on August 03, 2012, 12:07:07 AM
Where's the price compared to my projection?  ;D
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=81407.msg898596#msg898596

Pretty damn close if I do say so.  ;)


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: smoothie on August 03, 2012, 12:11:14 AM
But if you think they are going down, you now have no way to short.

Borrow Bitcoins. Sell Bitcoins. Congrats, you are now short.

Seriously, I LOLed about this......


+1 LAWL!


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: notme on August 03, 2012, 12:15:58 AM
Where's the price compared to my projection?  ;D
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=81407.msg898596#msg898596

Pretty damn close if I do say so.  ;)

maybe... tough to tell the way you have the x-axis labeled


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: dree12 on August 03, 2012, 12:17:22 AM
My thoughts, minus the "fuck".


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: Dice on August 03, 2012, 12:20:40 AM
Im scared that its moving up this quick...should I be?


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: dree12 on August 03, 2012, 12:21:51 AM
Im scared that its moving up this quick...should I be?
No. This is the slowest it's moved for Bitcoin. Volatility has been quite low recently.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: smickles on August 03, 2012, 12:47:01 AM
But if you think they are going down, you now have no way to short.

Borrow Bitcoins. Sell Bitcoins. Congrats, you are now short.
there's also MPEx where you can buy a put.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: ydenys on August 03, 2012, 12:53:07 AM
Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: dree12 on August 03, 2012, 12:59:56 AM
Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.
Weekends tend down, for sure, but don't ignore that Mondays do as well. So do Tuesdays.
https://i.imgur.com/lCZA9.png


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: knight22 on August 03, 2012, 01:12:20 AM
Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.
Weekends tend down, for sure, but don't ignore that Mondays do as well. So do Tuesdays.
https://i.imgur.com/lCZA9.png
Is this accurate?


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: dree12 on August 03, 2012, 01:15:34 AM
Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.
Weekends tend down, for sure, but don't ignore that Mondays do as well. So do Tuesdays.
https://i.imgur.com/lCZA9.png
Is this accurate?
It's based on all Mt. Gox USD historical data up until July 30, 2012. It therefore cannot be used as a predictive indicator (because it uses historical data), but would be accurate if used for hindcasting.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: tiberiandusk on August 03, 2012, 01:19:56 AM
Screw regular alpaca socks. EXTREME ALPACA SOCKS!
https://i.imgur.com/tKeLi.jpg


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: unclemantis on August 03, 2012, 01:20:13 AM
Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.
Weekends tend down, for sure, but don't ignore that Mondays do as well. So do Tuesdays.
https://i.imgur.com/lCZA9.png
Is this accurate?
It's based on all Mt. Gox USD historical data up until July 30, 2012. It therefore cannot be used as a predictive indicator (because it uses historical data), but would be accurate if used for hindcasting.

Close enough...


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: Astro on August 03, 2012, 01:21:04 AM
The price of bitcoin is directly proportional to the amount of shit-talk in the Something Awful thread about bitcoin.  The more they hate on it, the higher it goes, making them more and more wrong.

For reference, here is a goon: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbfBjo-Mw6U


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: ydenys on August 03, 2012, 01:29:52 AM
Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.
Weekends tend down, for sure, but don't ignore that Mondays do as well. So do Tuesdays.
https://i.imgur.com/lCZA9.png
Sorry I'm in the UK and i tend to sleep until 3 p.m. - hence ^^^


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: dree12 on August 03, 2012, 03:02:21 AM
Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.
Weekends tend down, for sure, but don't ignore that Mondays do as well. So do Tuesdays.
https://i.imgur.com/lCZA9.png
Sorry I'm in the UK and i tend to sleep until 3 p.m. - hence ^^^
The chart is made with UTC as the time zone, which should be only one hour off London daylight time.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: bitcoinBull on August 03, 2012, 05:19:40 AM
Screw regular alpaca socks. EXTREME ALPACA SOCKS!

But can you buy them with bitcoin?

Grass Hill Alpacas (http://www.grasshillalpacas.com/alpacaproductsforbitcoinoffer.html) are selling SURVIVAL Alpaca Socks for bitcoin. They are gavin's neighbor, btw!

http://www.grasshillalpacas.com/sock_colors.JPG

These are going in my survival/doomsday pack (along some casascius coins of course).


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: nimda on August 03, 2012, 05:41:28 AM
But if you think they are going down, you now have no way to short.

Borrow Bitcoins. Sell Bitcoins. Congrats, you are now short.

Seriously, I LOLed about this......

That's just one part of short... you wait til it goes below 10 and buy back the coins.. and u keep the difference.. that's the short...
Yeah, or your lender calls the mafia to help collect on your loan and you need to pay more than you sold them for... that's the short squeeze


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: jojo69 on August 03, 2012, 06:04:37 AM
The price of bitcoin is directly proportional to the amount of shit-talk in the Something Awful thread about bitcoin.  The more they hate on it, the higher it goes, making them more and more wrong.

finally, a reliable indicator!

Thank you sir


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: bitcoinBull on August 03, 2012, 06:18:19 AM
The price of bitcoin is directly proportional to the amount of shit-talk in the Something Awful thread about bitcoin.  The more they hate on it, the higher it goes, making them more and more wrong.

finally, a reliable indicator!

Thank you sir

Is there a link to the SA thread or is it in a subscriber section? SA trolls can be entertaining to read sometimes.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: minorman on August 03, 2012, 06:51:51 AM
During the spring we saw good news almost weekly - and the price went nowhere. I think the jump from 5 to 10 is just a delayed response. I certainly think that the good news more than justified a 2x jump.

Remember - a market cap of $ 0.1 billion is nothing. Nothing.
Bitcoin needs to reach well over $ 1 billion for anyone to notice. That, of course, is 100 usd/btc. Could happen before 2014 is over! Just buy more socks, etc.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: niko on August 03, 2012, 02:57:40 PM
Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.
Weekends tend down, for sure, but don't ignore that Mondays do as well. So do Tuesdays.
https://i.imgur.com/lCZA9.png

What's on y axis?


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: dree12 on August 03, 2012, 04:17:20 PM
Should settle about 10.4 now, if we go through the weekend with more than 10.2 it is a confirmed move – expect 11+ next week.
Weekends tend down, for sure, but don't ignore that Mondays do as well. So do Tuesdays.
https://i.imgur.com/lCZA9.png

What's on y axis?
It's complicated to explain, which is why I omitted it. Effectively, days are classified as Growth if they have % growth above 1,27%, Decline if they have % growth below -0,46%, and unclassified otherwise. The bar represents the difference between Growth days and Decline days (measured in days). If Sunday has -12, for example, that means 12 more Sundays have been Decline days than Growth days. The scale is 5 per grey line, with orange representing zero.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: niko on August 04, 2012, 01:53:53 PM
It's complicated to explain, which is why I omitted it. Effectively, days are classified as Growth if they have % growth above 1,27%, Decline if they have % growth below -0,46%, and unclassified otherwise. The bar represents the difference between Growth days and Decline days (measured in days). If Sunday has -12, for example, that means 12 more Sundays have been Decline days than Growth days. The scale is 5 per grey line, with orange representing zero.

Any chance you could add error bars? From the 6-hour version of the same plot, it seems like they would be significant.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: ErebusBat on August 04, 2012, 03:05:58 PM
Hoping this holds true, going to pick me up some coins tomorrow.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: dree12 on August 04, 2012, 06:36:21 PM
It's complicated to explain, which is why I omitted it. Effectively, days are classified as Growth if they have % growth above 1,27%, Decline if they have % growth below -0,46%, and unclassified otherwise. The bar represents the difference between Growth days and Decline days (measured in days). If Sunday has -12, for example, that means 12 more Sundays have been Decline days than Growth days. The scale is 5 per grey line, with orange representing zero.

Any chance you could add error bars? From the 6-hour version of the same plot, it seems like they would be significant.
Here's a 6-hour with the following error function:

Code:
((Days Increased + Days Decreased)^2 / (Average DI + Average DD)^2) * STDDEV(all values)

I'm not sure about the usefulness of this however. The motivation is that the more days recorded that are "boring", the more "stable" the day is (rather than being wild-swingish in nature). The STDDEV is multiplied to allow the error bars to show up. Do you have a better idea for an error function?

https://i.imgur.com/9WhWs.png


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: ErebusBat on August 05, 2012, 03:38:05 PM
/me wishes he was smarter so he knew what the hell you were talking about.


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: augustocroppo on August 05, 2012, 11:05:26 PM
/me wishes he was smarter so he knew what the hell you were talking about.

You are "smarter" as much you wish. Just improve your knowledge:

http://www.youtube.com/user/investopediacom

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

http://www.econedlink.org/economic-resources/glossary.php


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: ErebusBat on August 06, 2012, 02:01:49 PM
/me wishes he was smarter so he knew what the hell you were talking about.

You are "smarter" as much you wish. Just improve your knowledge:

http://www.youtube.com/user/investopediacom

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

http://www.econedlink.org/economic-resources/glossary.php

Sweet, thanks for the links augustocroppo!


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: niko on August 06, 2012, 02:57:36 PM
It's complicated to explain, which is why I omitted it. Effectively, days are classified as Growth if they have % growth above 1,27%, Decline if they have % growth below -0,46%, and unclassified otherwise. The bar represents the difference between Growth days and Decline days (measured in days). If Sunday has -12, for example, that means 12 more Sundays have been Decline days than Growth days. The scale is 5 per grey line, with orange representing zero.

Any chance you could add error bars? From the 6-hour version of the same plot, it seems like they would be significant.
Here's a 6-hour with the following error function:

Code:
((Days Increased + Days Decreased)^2 / (Average DI + Average DD)^2) * STDDEV(all values)

I'm not sure about the usefulness of this however. The motivation is that the more days recorded that are "boring", the more "stable" the day is (rather than being wild-swingish in nature). The STDDEV is multiplied to allow the error bars to show up. Do you have a better idea for an error function?
I was thinking a daily plot as above, with error bars representing 2*stdev based on four data points for each day (taken from the 6-hour plot).

https://i.imgur.com/9WhWs.png


Title: Re: ****$10****
Post by: dree12 on August 11, 2012, 08:04:24 PM
Okay, here's the daily plot with error bars. They represent ±1 STDDEV.
https://i.imgur.com/i3GdD.png