Bitcoin Forum

hi guys

today stock market kind went down a bit due to the fear of rising interest rates.

if interest rates goes up, stock market will probably go down further, dollar will strengthen more, then bitcoin should go down too? right?

I have known btc for a very long time.
but this time i sense little downtrend..

BIT Finra apporval and positive news lifted price recently,
but think about it,,  how much did it impact in real world?
coinbase exchange how much did it impact?


If I were chinese I would sell bitcoin, and be ready for the fed raising interest rates.
BTC hitting price $300 vs BTC going down to $245
I think there is more chance BTC will go down to $245 level.

Am i too bearish? please share your thoughts

bitstamp vs bitfinex price spread differrence got narrowed too, which indicates cool down from chinese side.

for these reasons I am shorting btc now

Good question! All things else being equal, yes, bitcoin would go down in dollar terms along with most other commodities, but it depends on why the dollar is getting stronger.  In Europe, there are currently to destabilizing situations that are hammering the Euro: the imminent exit of Greece and possibly other peripheral countries from the monetary union and The Ukrainian civil war.  There is a major role to play for Bitcoin in each crisis as a bridge to a new equilibrium however they play out. 

If interest rates in the U.S. go up, there will probably be an immediate and violent reaction in the capital markets that will likely force Janet Yellen's Fed to reverse course. The economic recovery is far too fragile to withstand interest rate normalization, particularly when the capital structure is so misaligned.

For Bitcoin, there would likely be a dip and sharp recovery, assuming Brazilians, Ukrainians, Greeks, and Venuzuelians haven't jumped onto bitcoin as a hyperinflation hedge and capital control avoidance mechanism yet. it that case, interest rates will have an almost inconsequential effect. 

well i dont really think USD got stronger only because of hammered euros
there are multiple factors, all major countries starting from EU countries, China, and Japanese, they are implementing some sort of QE bullshit to boost further economic growth. Not only that US got some pretty good economic data to justify raising interest rates.
As soon as interest rates raised by the fed, the downtrend of BTC will keep continue and probably stablized at $200 price level(kinda random but very strong support line and important price level for market participants to justify engage in btc)


I predict USD will keep strengthening as investors will think USD as safe haven.

something  i've noticed, while no one actually thinks the USD is a safe haven, everyone seems to think everyone else thinks the USD is a safe haven, so everyone buys USD as a safe haven fully knowing its not safe, but everyone thinks its safe because everyone thinks everyone else thinks it safe. Now the DXY is at an 11 year high and everyone is confident it going higher... smells like a bubble in the making.

Yes. Majority of people treat Bitcoin as an asset/investment.
So if interest rates go up, the price should come down.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/stocks-tumble-amid-worries-about-rising-interest-rates-n318871

USA feds?

read this news

http://moneyweek.com/bill-bonner-interview/

hold on to your cash, the real financial crisis is yet to come

The talk on raising the interest rate has been on-going for some time now ever since last year. Until now, we have yet to see it getting implemented. Whether it will have a negative impact on btc price, I think the answer is yes since both should be inversely correlated if you consider one as asset. But regardless of when the announcement will take place, we have already seen that slowly getting factored into to btc price. So I wouldn't worry if there's going to be a "sudden" drop because eventually its still the fundamental of bitcoin which is going to provide the support.

Interest rates won't go up soon, the Dollar will stops strengthening and Bitcoin will increase in price.

Doubt that rising interest rates will be seen as an impact on bitcoin price. Stock market is a diferent thing tho, some stocks will probably be afected, because few precents in
stocks is a wide are, where in bitcoin price ping pongs 10-15 percent and noone cares. Since its volatile as it is, i doubt this will make it any more impacted.

cheers

That I agree. There are so many things which impact Bitcoin, that the effect of interest rate changes will totally get lost in them. There are much more important, fundamental drivers of price.

How does the rising interest rate effect the price of bitcoin in anyway ?

Well, if USA feds raise the interest rates,
there will be likely sharp correction on stock market. probably panic sell off, and ppl will try to hold cash as much as possible.
early stage of BTC needs investment from financial institution to sustain it's growth. no "big guys" will care about experimental project like BTC
and likely to drag BTC price as well.

That's just my guess

Yup. Rising interest rates means that government bonds will become more attractive.
Money will flow from other asset classes to government bonds, bring down the price.

What are you talking about?

Rising rates means falling bonds.

When we have positive news the stock market goes down because they think the fed will raise interest rates except they won't do it anytime soon; don't believe me, just read last yellen's statements and fomc's transcripts.

That's exactly the impression I've gotten every time I talk about this with someone.
I think the devaluation of the Euro is helping this bubble grow. Let's hope it doesn't pop, I don't believe that would do bitcoin any good...

All bubbles pop. If they don't, they're not bubbles.

The P:E ratios and number of buybacks are what is making the DAX rise to it's all time high, that along with banks being awash with almost free money that they pretty much have to invest somewhere (bonds are nearly negative!)

The USD is a safe haven in that America is nearer to raising rates than everyone else, but they won't do it if they can help it, and I think they will have to reduce them soon afterwards when all of the bread line mortgages start being defaulted on and the government actually has to pay interest on the huge debts they have.  The new normal is ever lower rates, ever more QE, everyone is happy, until one day when it all goes wrong.

My opinion is rising interest rates have no effect on price of bitcoin.

This is a rather radical view since a higher interest rate usually discourages people from investing, and bitcoin is some sort of investment. My viewpoint is that bitcoin has zero interest rate right from the start, bitcoin holders do not expect an income from bitcoin in form of monthly or annual interest, so demand for bitcoin are not affected by interest moves.

Besides, there are much more powerful bitcoin price drivers then fiat interests. They make fiat interest rate effects almost irrelevant.