Bitcoin Forum

Please don't post for about 4 more hours.



Suchmoon will do a new   promo

OFFICIAL RULES FOR THE MOST ACCURATE GUESS REWARD


are here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10550525#msg10550525
(in other words, nothing has changed since the previous cycle except there is of course a new deadline).


the next reward deadline 2:00 AM UTC, April 12, 2015 as per suchmoon


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=999830.msg10985657#msg10985657


I will pick (-1.11%)  which is  -1.01 to  -1.25 range this time I will take the entire range for me myself and I.

All other ranges are open.

Difficulty History

Date   ---            ---- Difficulty---- Change ----          Hash Rate

Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s    Jump was  5.84%    It was hit by alh







Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s
Sep 04 2013   86,933,018   32.22%   622,291 GH/s
Aug 24 2013   65,750,060   29.40%   470,657 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

Spacing


Please don't pick we don't have a winner yet.

Once the winner or rollover is determined.


  posting can be allowed.

The sheet will be back up for this one (and future ones), but I'm going to take it down for a bit after this change to make some internal updates. Since the diff. change is going to be about 1 am EDT, it will be down until sometime tomorrow. Shouldn't matter much since the first day doesn't give too much info. I'll post once its back up, it should be the same link.

Edit: All in all, kind of a disappointing period as the price dropped about as much as difficulty will increase. But it follows a couple good ones, and given recent trends the next one looks to be much closer to flat. The average has been 2-2.5% for the past few months, nothing has changed that makes me think that won't be the average going forward at least for a few more adjustments.

Last one was not near as bad as it started with around 10 earl in week.   I really just hope we can stay under 5 percent this week and a little bump in BTC price would be nice.

Hmmm, this is a hard one to guess. I think I am going to guess +2.51 to +2.75%. This works out to roughly what the 1,006 average block time works out to if it remains constant 

+3.01 to +3.25 as usual please

I will be busy for Easter Holiday today. Be back on Monday

Thank you it is helpful info.

Negative 0.76 to negative 1% please

+3.51 to +3.75 as usual for me

+3.76 to +4.00

2.75 to 3.00% please with a guess at 2.77%

Hm. I would with 3.00% to 3.25%.

The last diff jump was quite high and I feel this time we should be a bit bellow that level.

I'll go with -0.51 to -0.75 this time  :D

i smell a small pump is incoming, based on this i say

+6% to +6.25%

I'll shoot for +4.76% to +5.00% this time.

I will take 4,51 to 4,75  ;D

+2.26 to +2.5, don't see it being taken yet

+3.26 to 3.50% please. happy easter day to all thread regulars and irregulars

Don't tell alh about this thread.

j/k

Congrats to the double winner!

As philipma1957 posted the deadline for the reward entries this time is:

2:00 AM UTC, April 12, 2015

Good morning all.  I hope Easter was a good day for those that observe it.  I am back from a gathering with cousins and an Aunt.

Had a nice time.  Other then the 220 mile round trip for the paty.


I will start the list up later today.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Estimated Next Difficulty:   51,328,298,584   (+3.81%)


Adjust time:   After 1830 Blocks, About 12.9 days


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/coinbase/btcusd

260 usd


google sheets is being tweaked

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=561061211

I will go with +4,26% to +4,50%. I believe price will affect difficulty.

Sticking with my 4.20 !

So 4,01 - +4,25

thanks

my predict will be :

+3.50 to 3.75+

list is as follows:


-1.01 to -1.25    philipma1957
-0.76 to - 1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51 to - 0.75   davejh


+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman


+6.01 to + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25



crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick

geforcelover --  pick another number as wpt1wpt1 has your first pick

 we are filled in solid at  all of the 11 possible ranges   in the   +2.26 to +5.00 zone.


 

+6.26 and up endless ranges

+5.01 to +6.00 four empty ranges

+0.01 to 2.25   nine empty ranges

and  a lot of negative ranges available

I will select 5.01 to 5.25+

got it

list is as follows:


-1.01 to -1.25    philipma1957
-0.76 to - 1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51 to - 0.75   davejh


+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover

+6.01 to + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25



crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick



 we are filled in solid at  all of the 11 possible ranges   in the   +2.26 to +5.00 zone.


 

+6.26 and up endless ranges

+5.26 to +6.00 three empty ranges

+0.01 to 2.25   nine empty ranges

and  a lot of negative ranges available

I will try:

-2.01 to -2.25    

Maybe I'll get luck with the negative numbers this time.

+2.01 to +2.25

list is as follows:

-2.01 to - 2.25  Chris_Sabian

-1.01 to -1.25    philipma1957
-0.76 to - 1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51 to - 0.75   davejh

+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover

+6.01 to + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25



crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick



 we are filled in solid at  all of the 13 possible ranges   in the   +2.01 to +5.25 zone.


 

+6.26 and up endless ranges

+5.26 to +6.00 three empty ranges

+0.01 to 2.00   eight empty ranges

and  a lot of negative ranges available





  Current real time is not available on google charts but www.bitcoincharts.com has us at - a neg adjustment

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   350999
Total BTC   14.025M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   49136274284 in 1801 blks
 
Network total   309500.873 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.25 / 686 s


That is about   -0.62%   with 1801 block left.


  that would make davejh a winner if it is accurate

I will take 5.26 to + 5.50 please.

And thank you for running it once again it's a fun game!

I might be negative here, 6.50 to 6.74 for me :) thanks.

I personally would be thrilled with any negative number.  I think we will be in positive most likely, but i love being wrong when it brings good things such as a negative difficulty change.

I would like to pick +1.01 - 1.25% please and thank you  ;D

The next difficulty should be good. Hope it will be below 5%   ;D

list is as follows:

-2.01 to - 2.25  Chris_Sabian

-1.01 to -1.25    philipma1957
-0.76 to - 1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51 to - 0.75   davejh

+1.01 to + 1.25  SimplisticStu

+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to +5.50     notlist3d

+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25

+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih


crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick



 we are filled in solid at  all of the 13 possible ranges   in the   +2.01 to +5.25 zone.


 

+6.26 and up endless ranges

+5.51 to +6.00 three empty ranges

+0.01 to 2.00   eight empty ranges

and  a lot of negative ranges available





  Current real time is not available on google charts but www.bitcoincharts.com has us at - a neg adjustment

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   350999
Total BTC   14.025M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   48965914359 in  1787 blks
 
Network total   300228.663 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.09 / 707 s


That is about   -0.972%   with 1787 blocks left.


  that would make GreatNorthData a winner if it is accurate


coinbase is at  255 usd.

Hey,

would like to pick + 1.76 - 2

Thanks

1.5-1.75. Wishful thinking, I know....

+5.51 to +5.75

Me too, I want to see the double digit drops to mirror the rise of 2013-2014.

list is as follows:

-2.01 to - 2.25  Chris_Sabian

-1.01 to -1.25    philipma1957
-0.76 to - 1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51 to - 0.75   davejh

+1.01 to + 1.25  SimplisticStu

+1.51 to + 1.75  RealMalatesta
+1.76 to + 2.00   ereton
+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to + 5.50     notlist3d
+5.51 to + 5.75    coinits


+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25

+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih


crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick



 we are filled in solid at  all of the 17 possible ranges   in the   +1.51 to +5.75 zone.


 

+6.26 and up endless ranges


+0.01 to 1.50   six empty ranges

and  a lot of negative ranges available





  Current real time is not available on google charts but www.bitcoincharts.com has us at - a neg adjustment

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   350999
Total BTC   14.025M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   48965914359 in  1787 blks
 
Network total   300228.663 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.09 / 707 s


That is about   -0.972%   with 1787 blocks left.


  that would make GreatNorthData a winner if it is accurate


coinbase is at  255 usd.

Hey there!

My guess is +1.26 to +1.50.

Good luck all!

This time , the interval is so narrow.

I will take +0.76 to + 1.00 before anyone gets it.

i will select

0.00% as usual .

+0.51-0.75 %

+0.01% - 0.25%

 @ crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick !




list is as follows:

-2.01 to -  2.25  Chris_Sabian

-1.01  to - 1.25    philipma1957
-0.76  to -  1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51  to -  0.75   davejh


-------0.00-------  A4Tech
+0.01 to + 0.25   MegaFall

+0.51 to + 0.75   bisom
+0.76 to + 1.00   EMIF
+1.01 to + 1.25   SimplisticStu
+1.26 to + 1.50   Kexkey
+1.51 to + 1.75   RealMalatesta
+1.76 to + 2.00   ereton
+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to + 5.50     notlist3d
+5.51 to + 5.75    coinits


+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25

+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih


crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick!

 we are filled in solid at  all of the 22 possible ranges   in the   +0.26 to +5.75 zone.


 

+6.26 and up endless ranges


+0.26 to 0.50 is left

and  a lot of negative ranges available





  Current real time is not available on google charts but www.bitcoincharts.com has us at - a neg adjustment

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   351114
Total BTC   14.028M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   49001580441 in 1686 blks---------picking up pace but still  neg
 
Network total   383738.151 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.50 / 553 s -------------------- uptick in speed



Still negative   at 0.89%    but we are on an uptick in speed

1686 block left

coinbase is at  255 usd.

crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick

I'll take +0.26-0.5.

My apologies on the delay getting the sheet back up, I got caught up on another project. I'll get it up ASAP.

I will take -1.126 to -1.151

Don't you mean -1.26 to -1.50

 @ crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick !




list is as follows:

-2.01 to -  2.25    Chris_Sabian
-1.26 to  - 1.50    stonerider ------------------ corrected from -1.126 to -1.151
-1.01  to - 1.25    philipma1957
-0.76  to -  1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51  to -  0.75   davejh

-------0.00-------  A4Tech
+0.01 to + 0.25   MegaFall
+0.26  to + 0.50   jmumich------------
+0.51 to + 0.75   bisom
+0.76 to + 1.00   EMIF
+1.01 to + 1.25   SimplisticStu
+1.26 to + 1.50   Kexkey
+1.51 to + 1.75   RealMalatesta
+1.76 to + 2.00   ereton
+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to + 5.50     notlist3d
+5.51 to + 5.75    coinits


+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25

+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih


crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick!

 we are filled in solid at  all of the 23 possible ranges   in the   +0.01to +5.75 zone.


 

+6.26 and up endless ranges


+0.26 to 0.50 is left

and  a lot of negative ranges available





  Current real time is not available on google charts but www.bitcoincharts.com has us at - a neg adjustment

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   351114
Total BTC   14.028M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   49001580441 in 1686 blks---------picking up pace but still  neg
 
Network total   383738.151 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.50 / 553 s -------------------- uptick in speed



Still negative   at 0.89%    but we are on an uptick in speed

1686 block left

coinbase is at  255 usd.

crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick
[/quote]

-1.51 to -1.75

-0.26 to -0.50

BitWisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,705,600,566 (+2.55%)
Adjust time:    After 1615 Blocks, About 11.4 days
Hashrate(?):    351,771,763 GH/s

Not looking as bad as last week.

 @ crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick !




list is as follows:




-2.01 to  -  2.25    Chris_Sabian


-1.51 to  -  1.75     RoadStress
-1.26 to  -  1.50    stonerider ------------------ corrected from -1.126 to -1.151
-1.01  to -  1.25    philipma1957
-0.76  to -  1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51  to -  0.75   davejh
-0.26  to -  0.50   SunnyIgor



-------0.00-------  A4Tech
+0.01 to + 0.25   MegaFall
+0.26  to + 0.50   jmumich------------
+0.51 to + 0.75   bisom
+0.76 to + 1.00   EMIF
+1.01 to + 1.25   SimplisticStu
+1.26 to + 1.50   Kexkey
+1.51 to + 1.75   RealMalatesta
+1.76 to + 2.00   ereton
+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to + 5.50     notlist3d
+5.51 to + 5.75    coinits


+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25
+6.26 to  + 6.50    sloopy
+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih





crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick!

 we are filled in solid at  all of the 23 possible ranges   in the   +0.01 to +5.75 zone.


 5.76 to 6.00 is open

+6.76 and up endless ranges




and  a lot of negative ranges available if you go from -2.26


-0.01 to -0.25   is open
-1.76 to -2.00 is open

  Current real time is not available on google charts but www.bitcoincharts.com has us at - a neg adjustment

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   351186
Total BTC   14.028M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   48988002500 in 1614 blks---------slacking a bit on the pace but still  neg
 
Network total   339595.123 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.76 / 625 s -------------------- drop in speed



Still negative   at 0.92%    but we are on a downturn in speed

1614 block left

coinbase is at  256 usd.

crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick

it is early but negative looks possible.

+6.26 - +6.50 for me please.

Great thread, I have to get in sooner!

you got the pick see above.

I want to take from -0.01  to -  0.25  %.

 @ crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick !  got it thanks!




list is as follows:



-2.26 to  -  2.50    crazyivan
-2.01 to  -  2.25    Chris_Sabian
-1.76 to  -  2.00    sana54210
-1.51 to  -  1.75     RoadStress
-1.26 to  -  1.50    stonerider ------------------ corrected from -1.126 to -1.151
-1.01  to -  1.25    philipma1957
-0.76  to -  1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51  to -  0.75   davejh
-0.26  to -  0.50   SunnyIgor
-0.01  to -  0.25   Lboss
-------0.00-------  A4Tech
+0.01 to + 0.25   MegaFall
+0.26  to + 0.50   jmumich------------
+0.51 to + 0.75   bisom
+0.76 to + 1.00   EMIF
+1.01 to + 1.25   SimplisticStu
+1.26 to + 1.50   Kexkey
+1.51 to + 1.75   RealMalatesta
+1.76 to + 2.00   ereton
+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993
+3.26 to + 3.50   Last of the V8s
+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to + 5.50     notlist3d
+5.51 to + 5.75    coinits


+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25
+6.26 to  + 6.50    sloopy
+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih






 we are filled in solid at  all of the 33 possible ranges   in the   -2.50 to +5.75 zone.


 5.76 to 6.00 is open

+6.76 and up endless ranges




and  a lot of negative ranges available if you go from -2.50 > lower


  Current real time is not available on google charts but www.bitcoincharts.com has us at - a neg adjustment

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   351234
Total BTC   14.031M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   48465610011 in 1566 blks--------- still  neg
 
Network total   310446.855 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.26 / 684 s -------------------- drop in speed



Still negative   at -1.98%    but we are on a downturn in speed

1566 block left

coinbase is at  247 usd.

crazyivan------ pick another number as  tertius993 has your first pick   got it thanks

Since everything s taken, I have to go with something optimistic. -2.26 to -2.50.

got it thanks

your new guess may be a lot better as of today  you are close.

Live sheet is back up (mostly) - shows us -3.73% right now.

Some things aren't working quite right (though I believe the standard difficulty projection is) - I expect everything else to be up by tonight or tomorrow, plus a tweaked experimental projection. Last time the experimental projection was decent over the last week, but I have some ideas to make it better.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g

So we are doing quite nice  a -3 or more would be pretty good.  Thank you for your work.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Dead line is april 12th 2 am utc time .          

 Which is about april 11th 9 pm EST time.

or april 11th 6 pm PST.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It looks like we will get some changes from the high picks to a negative pick.
______________________________________________________________________________

As a suggestion I think the next contest should wait for 84 hours after diff adjustment to begin.
Then stay open for 84 hours.We still get to see 1 weeks of blocks made and the early rush is put off.
______________________________________________________________________________

I can see that  if we stay low like neg -2 or -3 or -4 percent all the high picks will switch in a day or 2.
A lot of work for me and a bit of confusion.
_______________________________________________________________________________ _

So 14 day period of a block set would be

3 or 4  days of watching no picks---------------- days 1-4

3 or 4 days of picking ---------------------------- days 5-8

then last 6-8 days looking to see the closest--- days 9-14


This also allows for  more spec time and less pick time.

I wonder why this drop has happened? guesses anyone?

Or we could just not allow changing the picks :)

As for the drop, I'm watching AntPool as usual and it had a few unlucky blocks. If a pool that has ~15-20% of network hashrate takes 8 hours to find a block it does have a visible effect on the charts and estimates.

I think anything within +/- 5% can be safely dismissed as variance. Even that huge hashrate mountain from two weeks ago (~ 50 PH/s) has disappeared now. 25% total difficulty increase in 5 months - we used to get that much every cycle. Exchange rate doesn't seem to be going anywhere either.

variance of + or - 5% is possible.  also clever ddos can hurt hashing we had some brutal ddos attacks around 2 jumps back .

Btw  -1 or -2 is nice for a diff adjustment.

I was mining antpool. After 6 hours I started crying.

It's had a harder time with luck lately it was very very good.  And it's average is still not bad but 24 hour has been down a few times in last days.

Good news bitwisdom appears to keep going down:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,089,150,812 (+1.30%)
Adjust time:    After 1522 Blocks, About 10.8 days

Since the contests started, these threads have become pointless. What happened to the lively discussion about difficulty? It's all just people posting their guesses now. Boring. 

There is still some.  Just the contest has brought a lot of people to it.  Which is not really a bad thing.

Bitwisdom going up a little:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    50,242,645,979 (+1.61%)
Adjust time:    After 1473 Blocks, About 10.4 days

and I bounce back and forth between both of the above opinions.

I liked the pure spec angle we used to do, but the promo got us the google link from jmumich.

 That real time thread is very helpful for me in my future mining choices.  It can show just how far off other predictors are from the real number..

I think we have a few more contests ,5 counting this one  I can't remember  so 5 more  is a guess.

 When the original funds are gone suchmoon and I will revisit the promo idea.  

the real current number is -2.95%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

while   https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  is +1.41%     


that negative number allows me to decide if I want to sell the last of my gear for my summer mining or hold it.

With NJ price of power shift coming in May I go from 13 cents to 17 cents.

I also go from a 2-3 cents heat benefit in cold weather to a 1 cent heat cost in hot weather ,

So my real numbers are 10.5 in the winter and 18 in the summer.   I need to use much less gear unless diff and price work for me.  Part of the reason I created this thread last year was to get other ideas and have other miners Opinions.

I also saw the trend coming of lower diff jumps and did quite a few  sections or break down of diff adjustment increases.

Bottom line is don't fear the future of cryptocoins plan for it.  this thread helps in its small way. I like to think it does.  although last adjustment did scare me a bit.  :o

Not all.
First few days yes we all guess and not much else except Phil's analysis and one or two people give reasons.
But once the guessing closes the threads go back to reasons/speculation proper.
Maybe not being able to change guesses would help keep the content level up, help us all decide when to lower voltage, sell off, buy in.

i'll take it ;) i should have took a better number a few days back, at the beginning of the thread

the bitmain miners will/are back up so the hash should rise a bit...

pray for another fire? :)))

bitfury... nothing from them

sptech nothing

knc nothing. they didn't burn in hell yet! ;D

sfarts nothing

....

pretty quiet :-\

Phil I have been loving the google spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

With real time and amount it shows it's great.   If I save a copy will it work in my google drive?  Or is there a install guide since it has to work automatically?

Thanks!

We can also shorten the reward entry period, but that wouldn't really reduce the number of posts. Split into two threads? Not sure if that would work either.

Perhaps Phil could remove/aggregate posts that contain only reward entries and no other content (since the thread is self-moderated) but that would be extra work and would make it harder to resolve any disputes. Same applies to using PMs or some other kind of "off-thread" system for accepting those entries.

I'm open to any suggestions. It's not my intent to derail the thread with the reward but rather get more people interested in how difficulty adjustment works.

Once again, the 'Real number' as extrapolation of current data is absolutely useless before enough time passes (at least 1000 blocks imho). It's like flipping coin twice and extrapolating whatever result to 2048 passes.

Also analyzing block mining in too short intervals (like daily) has no statistical value due to the same reason but I admit it is entertaining and leads to majority of "Who just added/removed 20 PH" topics.

last week's adjustment was +5.84

at 628 blocks real number is -3.19

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

bitcoinwisdom has us at +1.4

I for one feel better looking at that -3.19 then looking at the +1.4


granted we are at 600 blocks so the -3.19 may not be corect but it is showing a trend pretty far away from +5.84

vs the 1.4 on bitcoinwisdom which is not that far from +5.84.  I do agree the at the 144 block or 1 day mark it is a meh number.  But at the 4 day mark it has some meaning which only becomes greater as you near the 14 day mark.

Hopefully that stays low enough.. I don't see the difficulty going up more than 4% but also don't see it dropping more than 6%

-1.26 to  -  1.50    stonerider ------------------ corrected from -1.126 to -1.151

Thanks for the correction!

A slight case of dyslexia was kicking in, when I typed in the numbers.

Stone

I am pro if it makes your life easier!

I think I lot of people don't understand how small bitcoin is.  Our market cap is 240 usd x 14 million coins or 3 billion usd and some change.

I am a middle class usa guy and I can afford to buy 100,000 usd in gear and host it in china .


Lets say I get a deal and I get 333 s-5's for 100,000    that is   333 x 1.15 th or 385 th

  385 th  is 1/1000 of all the hash power in the network.    So I could own 1/1000 of all the current hashpower.


Better yet I rented 1ph last night just to do this photo

that is me controlling 1ph for about 1 hour last nite  that is ⅓ of 1 percent cost was just under .5 btc

I can rent 1 percent of the entire network for about an hour and point it at a non btc pool and drop the difficulty rate for some time.

So if I can rent 1 percent for 1 hour for 1.5 coins  or 375 bucks others can do this.  Did anyone notice that a guy was renting  very big pieces of nice hash say 2ph for 1 day at a time.  over paying to do it. say 0.0115 when it should be 0.0101.

If he pointed 2ph at an alternate coin but a 256 type he lowered the btc network.
If he is the owner of 20ph datacenter  he could be doing this and it could help lower diff rate at a cheap cost.


http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/538/0maGqL.png

So I guess we have the first mining farm getting sued by their power company for late bills.
Anyone has a stat about how much hashing power gaw had?

http://ia601506.us.archive.org/27/items/gov.uscourts.mssd.88839/gov.uscourts.mssd.88839.docket.html

I am convinced it's going to be negative. So I'll take:

-2.51% to -2.75%

Phillip's default/pre-assigned -1.11% may well work out for him this time.

I find it amazing that somebody would decide to rent or otherwise reassign a big chunk of SHA-256 hashing to a a speculative alt-con. And I thought Bitcoin was a risky adventure!

I don't know if it's the FIRST, but I am 100% certain that it won't be the last! I don't know what kind of assets will have to cover a judgement if the power company wins. GAW might just file for bankruptcy in which case I expect the electric company is just another creditor.

gaw miners thought that they can cheat on electric company like they cheated on their clients!

is paycoin still alive? ::)

Oh there is a big shitstorm going on today. Power struggle between various players trying to take control of the coin, exchange rate tanking.

Anyway, on topic. GAW had maybe about 2-3 PH/s at their peak. Their power was shut off on January 27. So no effect whatsoever on our speculation :)

and I like your choice a 3 peat maybe?

The list is as follows:

-2.76 to  -  3.00    Last of the V8's
-2.51 to  -  2.76    alh-------------------shooting for a 3-peat
-2.26 to  -  2.50    crazyivan
-2.01 to  -  2.25    Chris_Sabian
-1.76 to  -  2.00    sana54210
-1.51 to  -  1.75     RoadStress
-1.26 to  -  1.50    stonerider ------------------ corrected from -1.126 to -1.151
-1.01  to -  1.25    philipma1957
-0.76  to -  1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51  to -  0.75   davejh
-0.26  to -  0.50   SunnyIgor
-0.01  to -  0.25   Lboss
-------0.00-------  A4Tech
+0.01 to + 0.25   MegaFall
+0.26  to + 0.50   jmumich------------
+0.51 to + 0.75   bisom
+0.76 to + 1.00   EMIF
+1.01 to + 1.25   SimplisticStu
+1.26 to + 1.50   Kexkey
+1.51 to + 1.75   RealMalatesta
+1.76 to + 2.00   ereton
+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993

+3.26 to + 3.50 --------------open --------  Last of the V8s Switched

+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50    shapeshift
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to + 5.50     notlist3d
+5.51 to + 5.75    coinits


+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25
+6.26 to  + 6.50    sloopy
+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih



 we are filled in solid at  all of the 33 possible ranges   in the   -2.50 to +5.75 zone.


 5.76 to 6.00 is open

+6.76 and up endless ranges

and  a lot of negative ranges available if you go from -2.76 > lower

  

I think this is up to date

Wow quite impressive.  I never thought about this.  But you renting this amount is crazy.

I guess I never did the math I just considered 1PH out of range of any regular person.  Nicely done philipma!

well like I said I pointed the 1ph at kano.is btc pool  

 I spent .5btc  to get the 1ph for just about 90 minutes time.

If I launch a pump and dump 256 coin  and spent very little money maybe 15 coins on the last day of the diff adjustment.

 I am pretty sure I can drop the whole network's hash rate 1%.

 So if I have a 20ph network. I can shift some of it on the last day  1% is 3ph .

 The adjustment  will jump say 2% not 3%  and the next adjustment I get 14 days at a lower rate for all of my 20 ph mining.


BTW diff is dropping like a rock!!



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

(-4.54%) !!



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(-0.85%)-----------------------not as sharp but still neg.

1338 blocks to go.

Rather than a 3-peat, I prefer to call it the "Triple Crown of Bitcoin Speculation", all run by phillipma1957 and funded by suchmoon.  :)

can I change? to -2.76 to -3.00%. hoping some of that alh glory spills over my way.

anyone know when the Chinese tax year ends? and might the big mines there be holding back for tax reasons?

-2.76 - 3

Thanks

it's going down! same with the btc price!

fine by me as a miner&holder ;D

will it stop? maybe hit -5%?

yes you can change I put it in.  I am going to tell all 1 switch max

try a different number as Last of the V8's beat you to it.

corrected picks   and we are finally going closer to 0 as we are at -3.60 % this morning




nicolocado please try a different pick it was taken

I am still thinking of renting some hashrate. Is there a way to check if the rented hashrate is doing a block withholding attack?

If I want to rent 1PH for 1 hour what is the best way to do it? Fixed or Standard?

ill take -3.01 to -3.25

I want to change my prediction from +4.26 to + 4.50  to  - 3.26 to -3.50 %.

okay go to nicehash and check prices.  I find usa eastern standard time 1am to 2am price can drop low

right now if you put in the price for 0.0100 you would get all below which adds up to 684gh

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/673/VVfs47.png

if you did 0.0101 price you would grab all this which adds up to 1035  if you set at 1000 it may go a bit over the 1000gh.

if you use fixed you can't be bumped but price is a bit higher.

I am a coffee type guy and stay up late so I look for bargains.  My rental at nice hash was just under .49btc and was for 0.0098 btc a true deal under what the going rate is. of course I still need kano blocks to be hit.


http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/633/4yLJN6.png

Bitwisdom is in negative now:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,307,019,022 (-0.28%)
Adjust time:    After 1208 Blocks, About 8.6 days

Seems like I'm bad luck I guess positive or negative and it goes other way.

I don't understand why you are paying a premium to mine BTC on another pool? I don't see it as being profitable in any way.

As I understand , he was trying to prove to decrease the difficulty just by renting some huge HP. So , it can be possible to manipulate difficulty doing this way , maybe its even possible to affect BTC market price to creating  a sensation that miners shut down their devices.

yes it is that example.

also when I rented my .497 btc worth I paid 0.0098 which is lower then the current th rate of the difficulty


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   plug in 1 th and up pops 0.01017

here was my rental I did it in the middle of the night and got the good price.

note I did no limit th which gave me all the  hash that was at 0.0098 or lower

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/540/PBiV5n.png

The picks end in about 12 hours.


The list is as follows:


-3.26 to   - 3.50    shapeshift
-3.01 to  -  3.25    tss
-2.76 to  -  3.00    Last of the V8's
-2.51 to  -  2.76    alh-------------------shooting for a 3-peat
-2.26 to  -  2.50    crazyivan
-2.01 to  -  2.25    Chris_Sabian
-1.76 to  -  2.00    sana54210
-1.51 to  -  1.75     RoadStress
-1.26 to  -  1.50    stonerider ------------------ corrected from -1.126 to -1.151
-1.01  to -  1.25    philipma1957
-0.76  to -  1.00   GreatNorthData
-0.51  to -  0.75   davejh
-0.26  to -  0.50   SunnyIgor
-0.01  to -  0.25   Lboss
-------0.00-------  A4Tech
+0.01 to + 0.25   MegaFall
+0.26  to + 0.50   jmumich------------
+0.51 to + 0.75   bisom
+0.76 to + 1.00   EMIF
+1.01 to + 1.25   SimplisticStu
+1.26 to + 1.50   Kexkey
+1.51 to + 1.75   RealMalatesta
+1.76 to + 2.00   ereton
+2.01 to + 2.25   Mikestang
+2.26 to + 2.50   Biodom
+2.51 to + 2.76   Quickseller
+2.76 to + 3.00   ezeminer------------------corrected from 2.75 to 3.00
+3.01 to + 3.25   tertius993

+3.26 to + 3.50 --------------open --------  Last of the V8s Switched

+3.51 to + 3.75    wpt1wpt1
+3.76 to + 4.00    tlhIlwI
+4.01 to + 4.25    HerbPean
+4.26 to + 4.50 ---------------open--------    shapeshift  Switched
+4.51 to + 4.75    valkir
+4.76 to + 5.00    Korbman
+5.01 to + 5.25    geforcelover
+5.26 to + 5.50     notlist3d
+5.51 to + 5.75    coinits


+6.01 to  + 6.25    Amph-------------------corrected from 6.01 to 6.25
+6.26 to  + 6.50    sloopy
+6.51 to  + 6.75    zekarsalih



 we are filled in solid at  all of the 33 possible ranges   in the   -2.50 to +5.75 zone.


 5.76 to 6.00 is open

+6.76 and up endless ranges

and  a lot of negative ranges available if you go from -2.76 > lower

  

I think this is up to date




nicolocado please try a different pick it was taken

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   is at (-0.90)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

is at (-2.46%)

https://www.coinbase.com/buys  is at 238 USD

we have about 1122 blocks to go.

Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    49,032,386,045 (-0.84%)
Adjust time:    After 1119 Blocks, About 8.0 days

It's a little higher than phil's earlier post.  We will see if trend goes up slowly.   Hopefully it changes and goes back down.

I'll guess -4.01% to -4.25%.

Price has declined significantly, plus the latest increase in difficulty has caused a net shrinkage in hashrate, IMO.

There's no way you can tell if they are performing a block withholding attack if you only rent 1PH for an hour. It only is possible to find out for sure once you can 'prove' the lack of blocks are not just from luck.

IE if you rent enough hashrate to mine 100 blocks and mine 0 blocks, you can deduce that a block withholding attack is occuring.

If you only rent enough hashrate to mine an average of 0.01 blocks, and you get 0 blocks, you can't deduce anything. It's possible that a block withholding attack is occuring--It's also possible you aren't lucky. I hope that helps.

@armedmilitia

You are correct but any pool can simply do an occasional block withholding by dropping shares above 32billion.  You would need to be on your toes to catch it. In some cases you just won't be able  to detect it.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

@ all readin this

my point was the hash is  pointed at a non- btc pool  such as the infamous paycoin of gaw miners.  you create a new coin and allow it to be mined by 256 hash. so the hash is moved off the btc network and on to the paycoin network.  They pumped and dumped the coin. Sometimes 6-8ph was rented on nice and west hash and directed at paycoin.

If you really look at what Gaw-zen miner did they showed you how to attack btc and make money.   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now as for nicehash withholding that hash  by having a program withhold any share above 32billion. Yes  they can as can any pool operator.

Now I have hit 1 block with nicehash rentals here it is:

I am lazy I do not feel like adding all my rentals up, but I don't think I rented more then 20-30 btc and I did hit a block so my luck is well within 'normal'


http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/540/60BGpv.png

We wouldn't benefit doing block withholding in any way.

But evil miners could do that with modified mining software. Every pool is prone to this kind of attack, not only rentals.

If there was a (simple) way to detect such activity of miners, we would already have it implemented. We believe that is the negative issue of current pooled mining concept.

Its weird how people are paying 20% over BTC right now at Nicehash just to mine BTC directly.

Currently the price is 0.012300 Th/BTC/Day. And they aren't mining an altcoin but BTC itself.

Wow I am surprised on price what is happening?  I cant think of any release on coins to make it so much.

well it helps if you are sending your miners there.

Its due to TRON coin. Which was launched today. Currently 7 Ph/s is mining it at the moment.

The coin looks like a total scam to me. No idea why the hype.

A lot of people jump at [what they perceive to be] a chance a a quick buck.  P&D

Pump & Dump has been around a long time. Wolf of Wall Street illustrates it well.  Alt coins now have clubs with touters charging up to .5 btc for their next hot coin pick.
  So 100 investors  or suckers pay the guy 0.5 btc for the pick then rent a lot of hash from rental sites at 20% or even 900% premiums as in the case of paycoin  and  2, 3, 5 , 10 ph diverts off btc.
My advice point your miners to west or nice hash  get the higher payoffs  and when that fad ends your miners will roll back to a real pool.

here is a miner setup for me . It earns a premium on west or nice hash and when premiums stop I go for a solo block
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/661/ZVjt3w.png

I have all my miners pointed back at Westhash... this is to good to pass up. Sometimes my S3's dont failover so only had the S5 renting hash in the past, but just changed the 3's over. The weird part is I have a batch 2 S3 that was a dog from the get go....Had two bad chips that use to show a x on one and a - on the other...but switching it over to Westhash about 4 hours ago the darn thing shows all "o" now on all chips and it has not done that in months of restarts?

that is found money bro.

Just wanted to let you guys know that I'm working on putting together the final list but if someone wants to make a last minute guess or change - now's the time.

Sorry for the delay, tax time is taxing.

I had my price set at .0136 because I was only interested in renting if it was a large payout, and I watched it yesterday and had the same thoughts as many others wondering what the current coin that was getting so much attention. I mine at Kano.is and like the good payouts when blocks hit, but I could not resist lowering my price and jumping in at westhash.
MY S4s and S3s need tweaking. I put the nicehash s3 binary on a couple of S3s and they worked, even rolling back ok, but the S4s I didn't and tried the #xnsub, no rollover, so I just left the ones which worked and will go back and tweak the others later, but overall, this must have some impact on difficulty, albeit small, but I certainly know Phil is right on with the ability to affect the network with 1 bitcoin at the right time of the day. Imagine a group renting all of the available hash from every mining site, and not for an attack, but how much could it impact difficulty? Say 20 guys put down 5 coins each at the different mining sites. average the pricing across all sites, manage the times, the right time and pointed towards any sha256 coin with a break even sell price.
What is the realistic effect on Bitcoin difficulty?
Use 30 guys with 10 coins each, or 5 guys with 30 coins, etc.

Good stuff to get the mind moving this morning Phil, thanks for the reply bud, and I hope you are having a good morning.

Great Info from all ty. I enjoy reading everyone's thoughts, and the rental refresher!

FINAL LIST OF ENTRIES FOR THE 0.1 BTC REWARD

New entries are not accepted anymore but speculation is welcome.

Please take a minute to find your name in the list and verify the numbers. Let me know if you see anything wrong.

The pack is tight this time (rollover less likely) and BitcoinWisdom shows -1.67% trending a bit higher.

Thank you for participating.

http://i.snag.gy/KlWFL.jpg

I think the rental to drop the upcoming  hashrate will not pass 1 or 2 % basically renting  1ph for a day drops  about a ⅓ of a percent

so 3ph = 1 percent.

 I think being about to rent more then 10ph even as a group is not easy..    so for the  sake of argument a concerted effort of renters can drop the network maybe 1% for 1 adjustment if they do 30 coins a day for the entire adjustment. see 1 day price below for 3ph which is about a 1% drop


http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/1024x768q90/661/RK37np.png

 But this group does not need to lay the 30 coins out. each day.  All they need to do is convince us to mine a hot coin such as TRON  and we the investors or suckers rent or switch gear to alt 256 coins.

  The alltime hands down winner of these alt 256 coins was paycoin.  After reviewing all that  GAW-Zen did from March of 2014 to the actual paycoin mining in nov+ dec 2014 I am convinced it was done to halt or lower BTC diff . I think it ran into trouble due to the BTC price drop.  I also think  the BTC price drop was partially caused as a reaction to the paycoin mining.
If I had serious money in BTC  I would be nervous as to what paycoin did to suck a lot of ph away from btc mining.  I think some major selloffs occurred in BTC due to that super pump & dump event.

You're saying they successfully executed a plan to slow down the diff growth but couldn't take advantage of it because of the price drop? I think you're overestimating their abilities. Not to get too far off topic - a lot of recent events contradict that, like them not paying their power bill since November. If they had a grand plan like that the last thing to do would be to get their power cut off.

But I agree that it shows how a successfully hyped coin can have an impact on BTC. I'd say it's temporary now (Edi: I mean - very short term, it's not Paycoin anymore still holding BTC below $250 now).

I agree that BTC under 250 usd has many factors keeping it there.


As to whether they successfully executed a method to slow diff growth  they did.  I am certain they were trying to do it.  I believe they did it with ltc first it worked and it also crashed the price of ltc.

I think they believed too much in their own hype  and when they applied it to btc+paycoin  they were egotistical enough to think.  BTC would drop and paycoin would rise.

Instead they lowered btc a bit and paycoin fully crashed and burned.   But there are always a lot of factors about price. 

Make the TRON coin have a lot of people mine it and dump it will price is rising. This repeated move hurts BTC and I do not really see how it can be stopped. But what do I know.  In the meantime I am enjoying renting my gear for

0.0128 a th vs 0.0102  .

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (-2.71%)

https://www.nicehash.com/?p=allorders  has 4.4ph all at 0.0149 vs 'norm' of 0.0102

It is like someone read my early posts and decided to show just how to drop btc diff.

This new coin is Tron  classic pump and  dump I would guess 3.4ph of the 4.4 ph rented on nice hash right now is mining this coin.

 Maybe we can get lucky  and the Tron coin pushes nicehash to .0200  and drops btc diff 5%

According to the pool, the net hashrate for that coin is 12Ph/s at times.

thanks .
so 12 ph is 3 maybe 4%  and btc is down 3%.

So if you are bitfury or knc creating a hot coin designed to simply lower btc diff is worth do.. then create a pump and dump tout service to use other peoples money to play the new shit coin.  and for very few coins and a few days time developing that new coin.  you made the diff drop 2-4 % and your big ass 20ph or 30 ph farm pulls in 1 more 2 week adjustment of 3-4% more coins.

20 ph earns 2848 coins in 2 weeks if diff drops 3 % it earns 2934 coins  so you gain 90 coins.

If you can spend 20 of those 90 to create a good pump and dump you gained 70 coins .  and maybe you make something on the pump and dump side of it. looks to me like this will happen over and over. and over again.

OK, so lets assume that a new "Pump & Dump" happens on a AltCoin. Somebody has to get burned by that maneuver, don't they? If this is repeated, does this cast a pall on Bitcoin long term, or do folks manage to keep the various alt-coin debacles separate from Bitcoin??

While I am happy with a declining difficulty, if it puts Bitcoin in the crapper long term, it may not be all that great.

The people renting the hash believing in the coin are the ones who get screwed.
Just like paycoin.

Who makes the most?
The current Asic mfg with product shipping, and the "devs" of the coin.

What would be great is to spot one of those scamcoins coming and pull a double reverse on the pump n dump...

Now that would be a movie!

BTC miners don't mind as long as the difficulty drops, and then the people who bag hold don't start yelling until a month or more down the road.

Basically the people renting the hashrate late, or the people buying the coin at a high price.


Zero sum game.

I would not compare to paycoin.  Gaw in my opinion killed paycoin.  Looking back it was all pretty obvious.  I was looking at gaw twitter it shows them renting private jet to conference when they were looking ok before paycoin dropped.

It is very nice on pay on nicehash and renting right now.  I will not complain, I hope it continues.

As far as tonight bitwisdom continues to show a downward trend in difficulty.  Hard to say how much hash is being rented and not on btc right now.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,682,109,922 (-3.57%)
Adjust time:    After 906 Blocks, About 6.7 days

I think the pool had 12ph a few posts back that was mentioned.  So a lot of that 12ph would be mining btc.  It almost perfectly accounts for the 3-4% drop.

I just don't like the pattern it has repeated many times. With PAYCOIN being the all time champ.

I think not not having Gaw in it makes a big difference for other coins.  Gaw is a pretty horrible company in my opinion.

If you look they are even being sued for not paying electricity cost they used with their equipment.

i guess it doesn't matter https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1012578.msg11029983#msg11029983 'cause the diff is too low and the same for the remaining time.

would not expected an negative diff :)

Thinking of things close to that link I love the google document: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmF2knc5rSrJLESgQJYBz8mPzpKihmSzPPQUGH7pT8g/edit#gid=1784567491

Is it you Phil setting this up each difficulty change on the google doc?  I thank who ever is doing this.

jmumich have to  check spelling  .

That is correct

his profile is here
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=84984

Still a work in progress but it has been nice to use.

He took my ideas polished them into the sheet.  really nice work.  He is using the charts from http://btc.blockr.io/charts

4-05-2015  148

4-06-2015  126   -18
4-07-2015  150   -12
4-08-2015  128   -28
4-09-2015  138   -34
4-10-2015  148   -30
4-11-2015  140   -34
4-12-2015  130   -48  we are about 48 block off pace.
4-13-2015
4-14-2015
4-15-2015
4-16-2015
4-17-2015


I am good at raw data interruption .  Also I can find the 'good' data but the presentation of it is not my best skill.

These numbers show hash shifting off btc. to another coin.  Not as much as paycoin but the most significant case since paycoin late last year.

Short term it is nice to mine at 30 to 40% excess.  I am renting on nice hash in the p=0.0138- 0.0145 range right now.

Unfortunately BTC price is down to $225 as I type this. So difficulty down, along with price. :(

Nicehash is dropping quickly on it's pay.   Will be interesting if we see hash start to go back over to BTC.

For sure, another thank you here, too.  Very cool to watch this stuff in real time and see it evolve.

Well nicehash pay has went down quite a bit.  It appears people are returning to mining btc.  Below is current bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,637,535,481 (-1.64%)
Adjust time:    After 781 Blocks, About 5.5 days

yep quite a bit jumped back .

I did not see this happening so soon but going back down a little:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,482,949,723 (-1.95%)
Adjust time:    After 758 Blocks, About 5.4 days

with 63% of this set of blocks done it becomes hard to go up a lot. I think some left the TRON coin and started to bring the numbers up.
I think people like me nearing the summer and close to the profit margin turned some gear off.

This summer I may only night mine to cut costs a bit.

Unless you live in an apartment I see no reason to shut off mining gear in the summer. Just put it in a room you don't use and open the window and shut the door.

Thank you, I have just been searching for information about this topic for a long time and yours is the greatest I've found out so far. However, what concerning the bottom line? Are you positive concerning the supply?

You obviously don't live somewhere it gets hot.  You open a window and it gets HOTTER inside.

Or someone who has not done much mining.   I have been working on getting my summer area ready.  I do not want to use AC as it's to expensive to use to cool miners.

This year I will be trying to use good exhaust of miners and drawling in new air.    It's going to be a heck of a lot of work, but worth it in the end.

If I am reading things correctly, it seems that the recent WestHash "BTC Rental Rush" is over. I think I just got my SP20 all rigged for it, and it seems that WestHash will only pay .0068 at the present time. I was kinda hoping I could see if I had it all rigged correctly, and then it fell below my .0100 threshold.

I guess the "Tron Pump" is over and we are into "Dump"? This seems to mesh with a return to BTC mining?

My current summer plan is continue to dial back my SP20 to it's minimum viable power usage, and hence minimum heat production. It's current location is in the basement, but still within the total AC envelope for the house. I have never had this powerful a miner, and never downstairs like this. I'll have to see how it works out.

it seems that miners know well how to predict the price, when they see a down trend

and for thath reason sometime i think that the price is following the hash, normally it should be the contrary....

Bitwisdom has not moved much. Seems the jump of miners from renting is done.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,505,076,217 (-1.90%)
Adjust time:    After 645 Blocks, About 4.6 days

Just when I thought it was going up slowly.  Bitwisdom went down slightly:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,406,842,195 (-2.10%)
Adjust time:    After 627 Blocks, About 4.5 days

with 1389 down and 627 to go negative looks pretty likely .  My stock -1.01 to 1.25% has a shot.  Remember heat is coming for the Northern Hemisphere

price is 223 usd. If I mine at a diff of 50 a price of 220 usd in the summer my power is 18 cents. my avalon is breakeven on a big down clock to 750gh.

I will mine at breakeven price or even lose 1 dollar a day to mine. but others are turning gear off.

Isn't it better to just sell your gear instead of mining at a loss or shutting off miners?

I sold off 13 sp20e's
I sold 1 avalon 4.1
I sold 2 s-5's
I sold 4 s-5's hosted in china

All sold to prep for the summer.  Most likely I will run the avalon 4.1's at ck's solo pool underclocked to 700gh each.

I will burn about 725 watts an hour or 24 x 725 = 17.4 kwatts a day x 30 = 522 kwatts a month at 18 cents = 94 usd a month for 3 months or   just under

300 usd for a shot at a block.  I am also holding some coins.   I may buy some more.

You are pretty much running a lottery ticket. Not only that but a lottery ticket that, unless you are an expert, have no real way of knowing for sure is properly setup until after you find a block but it either does not get propagated or the coinbase transaction does not get sent to an address you control.

I personally think that you should not make any attempt to solo mine unless there is at least a 75% chance you will find a block every two weeks, but even that is very risky

You are entitled  to think that.  But you are lacking so many facts in my particular case it is not correct.

A) I begged pool operators for months to run solo pools.
B) Not fly by nite operators but real legit operators.
C) Ck was one of the first to run a solo pool
D) I support him and have 0 issues losing 300 dollars if that is what I lose
E)  Government run Lottery tickets are  bets at unfavorable odds.
F) Solo mining on ck's pool is a high risk investment at favorable odds which involves investing  a small amount 300 usd to collect a possible  5500 usd

Do the math and see why it is favorable odds to do solo mining unlike playing a 4 digit number such as 1234 in a pick 4 game.

Well I would trust -CK to payout if your miner found a block (he did so as recently as twice today). The real concern is that you may somehow have something misconfigured on your end that for some reason the block you find does not have a coinbase transaction to your address.

All lotteries will have a negative EV, the way people win is if they happen to win a larger amount then they bet and this is only likely to happen over the short run.

The problem with solo mining with such a small amount of hash rate is that you cannot realistically expect to be able to find a block.

If you want to play the odds, then yes solo mining is going to have a higher EV because -CK is going to take only 0.5% while the lottery is going to take between 2 and 3% depending on the game you play. (I would also personally argue that mining is more fun then playing the lottery so the difference is EV is accounted for). The issue is that solo mining is an all or nothing game, you are either going to make $5,500 (25 BTC) or nothing. With the lottery on the other hand you could make $10 on a ticket, or $50, or even potentially make $500 over $300 worth of tickets.

I don't know exactly what your cost of electricity is where you live, however I don't think the estimated mining revenue would be less then the estimated amount of electricity that you will consume.

 Most likely I should sell these two off at the end of  April.. Then hold the coins.

I'm going to chime in here with a guess of -3.76-4

I am a long term hodler. I have acquired a large amount of coins via signature deals and the like since when bitcoin was trading at over $700. I have a good amount of fiat stashed away at coinbase waiting for the price to take a serious dive.

Sadly the most profitable course of action for mining seems to be to buy miners directly from manufacturers, then mine for some amount of time and then sell them for a profit (when you take into account your mining revenue). When I first seriously starting monitoring bitcoin and bitcoin related news (mostly by lurking on reddit in early 2014) it seemed that people were able to sell miners they purchased from manufacturers for several times the amount they paid for them.

The ability to profit from mining seems to be almost like a game of 'hot patio' and my biggest concern is that a good portion of the miners will end up in the hands of people with malicious intentions.

---

---

Like I said in my previous post, mining is likely going to be more fun then playing the lottery. Likewise, there is a good chance that mining would be more entertaining the going out to the movies or going out to a nice restaurant. If this is the case then it makes sense to not go out one or two weekends and instead mine for a few months, however from a financial perspective it is probably not a good idea to solo mine with less then several PHs of mining

Picking time ended on the 12th of April.

Yeah I am in the position of 2 power prices.  summer rates are 16.9 cents add a 1.1 to cool gear and I am at 18 cents for about 100 days of the year.

Winter rates are 13 cents take away a 3 cent heating benefit  and I drop to 10 cents for about 265 days of the year.

When the high rates approach I sell off most of my gear.  My in House was as high as 15th this winter I am now down to 2th or with under clock 1.5th

The game is now is how cheap is your power rate.  I have 2 s-3's chugging away in a 2.4 cent power spot.  They have mined at 850gh since July 23 of 2014. They still do okay since power bill is 24 x 650 watts = 16 kwatts a day x 30 = 480 kwatts a month Round to 500kwatts x 2.4 cents = 12 dollars and 850gh earns 56 bucks in  a month.
So they make about 40 usd a month.

I am limited to  under 750 watts and under 50 db.  those s-3s are clocked to  freq 212 and they have preformed very well.
Now if I had the spot  using 7500 watts it would be a nice piece of  change but that is not the case.

My price is the same only thing is I have to battle heat during electricity.   I have it working decent right now.  If i get what I want I will be building a summer spot for my miners.  Lots of air and exhust. 

It's kinda of slowed down other things right now I've thrown quite a bit of time in planning my new mining spot.

On difficulty looks like we are sitting pretty steady at this point at negative levels:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,428,739,111 (-2.06%)
Adjust time:    After 551 Blocks, About 3.9 days

Well the day is coming to a end. It looks like it has went down a little slightly

Bitwisdom:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,366,693,228 (-2.18%)
Adjust time:    After 488 Blocks, About 3.5 days

it should re-adjust itself now, seeing the price rised a little like +1 % or near that or retunr at the previous rate(1.92%?)

It is nice on price.  Still not a huge jump were getting close to $230.  So a little better then the sub 220 price a few day's ago.

Bitwisdom continues to go down:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,198,920,875 (-2.52%)
Adjust time:    After 405 Blocks, About 2.9 days

End of day it keeps going slightly down.  Nice to see:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,042,649,248 (-2.84%)
Adjust time:    After 361 Blocks, About 2.6 days

I always think of Daffy Duck jumping on the Jeanie to get him back in the lamp, that's me jumping on network difficulty.  DOWN DOWN DOWN!

I could go up to -1.11%  but I digress.

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/         has us at  -2.909%  with 349 blocks to go.


Blocks   352451
Total BTC   14.061M
 
Difficulty   49446390688
Estimated   48007913104 in 349 blks
 
Network total   324164.931 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.49 / 655 s


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

4-05-2015  148

4-06-2015  126   -18
4-07-2015  150   -12
4-08-2015  128   -28
4-09-2015  138   -34
4-10-2015  148   -30
4-11-2015  140   -34
4-12-2015  130   -48
4-13-2015  150   -42
4-14-2015  152   -34
4-15-2015  121   -57
4-16-2015  139   -62    we are about 62 blocks off pace.
4-17-2015

Price has went down since it was around 230.  Were now at around 220 level again.

I hope we can get a little more upswing on price.  It would definitely help.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


 (-3.26%)

320 Blocks left, About 2.3 days

coinbase = 220 usd

it looks like  we could hit a   -4  decrease

Looks like I'll have to restart my 10PH farm if I want to win the pool again this time around. I might even have to call an emergency meeting of my friends at OBEC (Organization of Bitcoin Exporting Countries).   :)

In case it's not obvious, this is intended to be a humorous post!!!

Since this is a favorite thread to post in this will be my first post with my new signature. I now have rented my signature for Bit-x no longer nicehash.

It is the summer's approach that has affected my decisions greatly over the last 30 days. I reduced my 13-14th in house to a mere 1.6 or 1.7th

I also think I will do far more buying holding and trading the next 60-90 days.  So this thread will affect a lot of my buying decisions .  We are going to push towards -4 percent  this time .   I think I see a downward price trend.  KNC is involved in a very big lawsuit.  I can see btc going under 200 usd very soon. This will make for quite a few - diff adjustments.

i do not understand y u sold the s5 hosted by lee! that is very low hash speed man!

i have 11th and i underclock to ~9th have to think serious about summer... waiting to see the miner edge on the market!!!

made a calculation, and from when i started ~mid september 2014 till now, the average diff was +3.8%
ok time to mine i guess :)

I could have kept my 4 miners at lee. ( a mistake to sell)  but I had the chimney  leak and was nervous that it might need a full teardown and repair ($$ 4-6k)

  So I sold off all miners but 2 and sold off coins (8 at 280 which is good at the moment)   I then had 6k in hand for the repairs.  So I found a new guy  turns out he served in the Marines and was actually on my Navy base was i was stationed there. Translation he worked really hard and did a very nice job on a complete chimney reflashing and he used a ton of sealant .  I am pretty sure  that it will stay fixed and the price was under 1 k.

 So I am a bit cash rich miner poor.  Told the wife I will get her 2-3k worth of kitchen upgrades.
I I left Lee's 4 miners online I would have been better off then I was selling them. 

But the wife is happy. That is worth a lot more then a shit load of mining gear.

1312312% true! ;D

chimney? look into rocket stove, rmh, maybe an adaptation.... no need for chimney with rocket stove!
summer is coming and i look forward to cocking again outside on my crappy rocket stove!

Glad to hear it went well on repairs.  It truly is hard to find a good/honest skilled labor.   My last experience was about 1.5 weeks ago with a electrician he was scared because of miners.   To put in 1 240 breaker he gave me a ballpark of 500, and the official quote came in at over 1k.  Was rediclous turned out he didnt know it was a sub panel and thought it was a main.  Needless to say he will not be working on my house.

I don't think the price going below $200 will affect the difficulty much. It might affect it by around -5% or so. We were below $200 for a couple days and the difficulty wasn't decreasing anyways.


For miners its worse because about a month ago, price was almost $300 and difficulty is pretty much exactly where it is right now but we were making 25% more.

Its not a linear curve.

Price might go down 50% and difficulty might only go down 20%.


I think the reason being is that many miners right now have free electricity and for them it doesn't matter what the price is because they are always pulling in a profit.

The latest bicoinwisdom projection puts the new difficulty at about 47.6 Billion. Looking back through the list of prior adjustments, that's like a "reset" back to March 8th if it holds true.

Just an interesting viewpoint, for a Friday afternoon here in MN.  :)

Yeah and while I have  a 2.4 cent setup it is only 2 s-3's . In a friends office.

I will soon move 2 or 3 avalon 4.1's to another friends place he has 0.07 usd power and while 7 cents is not as good as 2.4 cents it is decent.

the whole game will turn into spot mining only in under 8 cent power places.

My big thing is getting a summer mining area.   Cooling by fan's and extraction of heat is a lot cheaper then AC.   A cant pay AC bill to cool all of my gear, so currently next few weeks will be making my new summer mining area.

last summer I switched to gridseed blades 17 of them.  mistake first off my pc like running 12 or 13 of them not 17.  then the ltc market crashed.

only good thing was power was down to about 1500 watts.  this summer i want to stay under 1000 watts.

I got rid of inefficient gear.  The A1 1T, and S3's (hated to get rid of them loved them).    I will be starting summer with around 10k watts.  I thought I would be much lower... but I ended up going from 12k to 10k.   So now I have to perfect the fan's and exhust.   Hopefully get some of the parts this weekend and start out on it.  I'm lucky to have a lot of room for miners. 

I'm really looking foward to the summer design I have.  Will be nice to have them all in same room.

I have some very good fans that I won't be needing.

this model

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Comair-Rotron-CLE2L2X-550CFM-49A-115V-Axial-Fan-/280883455850?

I can send them for postage only  let me know itf you want them my zip is 07731

Thanks for offer. But I had a coupon and some gift cards I used on fan's.  I should have them soon.   

I've got some of the electrical.  Still going through it on list.   

I'm hoping to have a little done this weekend.  We will see if it happens or not. Hopefully it at least is started if plans go as I think.

I am looking at www.bitcoinwisdom.com


(-3.50%)

221 blocks left



Bitcoin Difficulty:   49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,717,551,792 (-3.50%)
Adjust time:   After 221 Blocks, About 1.6 days
Hashrate(?):   327,923,230 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.4 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   0:10 (5.3 minutes ago)

www.coinbase.com is at 224 usd

with 221 blocks left negative is certain we would need to do all 221 blocks in under 24 hours time. that won't happen.

Pretty amazing another negative.  Looking  back a year ago I would have never guessed so many negatives in the future.

I was guessing positive, man was I wrong.

  not so sure what to think.  I saw this starting when the s-3 came out and the s-1 was downclocking to 1.2 watts

thus the new gen was 1.2 to .8 watts  I predicted the big slowdown would be worse with the s-5 only doing .52 watts.

What I missed was price dropping from 350-400 late last year to the current 220 now.
My guess is if price were to jump to 1000 usd or better yet 2000 usd we would see insane growth I am not to sure what is best for the coin. Have to wait it out.

I don't think we'll see prices like that for like two more halvings; but since the number of block reward coins then will be 6.25, at $1000/BTC a block would still be worth basically the same in 8 years as it is today.

I'm still not sure when all the A1's will be removed.  I thought it would have already happened.  But with so many negatives I think there are quite a few A1's still providing hash.

I think there is a lot of "old" gear that one day will come off just not sure when.

Just went to -4.05%  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


170 blocks to go  price is 221 usd

what happened to the 12ph that where on tron?
what happened to antpool, is it back to full speed?

so y the -4%? ::)

inefficient farms for btc but ok for pumped shit coins?.....

It is at full spead for sure.   If you look at it yesterday on antpool it temporary went up to 66.7 PH.  Don't know where the burst came from was not long but you can see it:

Picture: http://s100.photobucket.com/user/notlist3d/media/antpool/antpool_zpssmf9atth.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Also most mining is Northern Hemisphere and the heat is coming.

For me summer rates jump from 13 to 16.9 cents. Add in heat factor my winter rates are 10 cents and my summer rates are 18 cents.

For others worse then above.  Now I sold off 12 sp20s and 2 s-5's  .  I kept the 2 avalon 4.1's .  I clocked them down to 1600 gh vs 2200gh as I don't need the heat they make.

I suspect a lot of miners are starting to down clock.  So a home miner may have a 20% drop off.  Since we are not the big amount of network hash rate our 20% drop turns into 3 or 4 or 5 %

Yep. I had to down clock my S5s to the default 350.

11th downclocked to ~10th
sp20 and sp10! the last one not so much but sp20 is reaching 120C per more than half of asics at ~25C ambient temps
s3+ and c1 have no problems with higher temps. sadly they need to go as i want one miner edge or 2...

so you may have dropped from 1300gh to 1150 gh say 10 or 11%   x tenthousand others just like you and that is 15ph .  Yes the southern hemisphere adds some as it is cooling say 3 -5ph a net drop of 10 or 12 ph

and you are right at our current -4%.  we are now at -3.70%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

we have 127 blocks to go

I went back up to 400 with mine for today as it has cooled off sufficiently to keep miners running under 50C. How hot do you allow the rigs to get before dialing them back?

The s-5s are really sturdy  what are your error numbers? As in under 1.0 percent  is okay. under 0.100 percent is good.  under 0.02 is really good.

 So if you are really close to 1% errors  back off the freq.

 as for temps I  suggest
 under 60c as very safe.
 60c to 65c as so so .
 65c to 70c as pushing 
 over 70c for 24/7/365 as foolhardy

The auto shut off is 80c but there are reports of it failing to work. So I would not run in the 70+ range.

Any drop is always welcome.
Glad that mysterious 50PH.s went and stayed in hiding...

you and me both.

with 103 blocks to go we are at -3.40%

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

price is 222 usd

so about 12 noon on Sunday eastern standard time we will know what the adjustment is.

I am very interested to see the upcoming number around may 2nd or 3rd.  I wonder if we drop -5% with the upcoming warmer weather. WE need a price thread but that is really hard to guess.

Phillip,

it's seems like you feel duty bound to always take the -1.11% change guess, based on some previous exchange with another member. I would be happy to have that assigned to me, so you are free to choose what you might actually want. Feel free to do that if you want, and I won't complain or request a change later.

Thanks for organizing these, and also suchmoon for his generous .1BTC payout.

3 rigs

#1 0.0724%
#2 0.0001%
#3 0.0008%

Min temp: 39°C
Max temp 42°C

I'm good for now.

Thanks for that offer. I will mull it over.

Less than a day left till difficulty change. Price is around 223 and Bitwisdom below:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    49,446,390,688
Estimated Next Difficulty:    47,745,041,802 (-3.44%)
Adjust time:    After 89 Blocks, About 15.4 hours

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

4-05-2015  148

4-06-2015  126   -18
4-07-2015  150   -12
4-08-2015  128   -28
4-09-2015  138   -34
4-10-2015  148   -30
4-11-2015  140   -34
4-12-2015  130   -48
4-13-2015  150   -42
4-14-2015  152   -34
4-15-2015  121   -57
4-16-2015  139   -62   .
4-17-2015  127   -79
4-18-2015  142   -81 we are about 81 blocks off pace

With  86 to go.  So to turn positive we need to make the 86 blocks in about 1 hour.

If we make them in 15 hours we will be just past -4%

If we could get -4 that would get rid of a lot of the previous difficulty change of 5.84.  I am still amazed each time we get a negative. 

Deferentially a lot different then last April.  We were getting a lot of double digits last year.  Big change, but I guess price also big change from last year.

And gear stopped improving power wise

the s-3  was the piece of gear that altered the diff jumps.  then the very small improvement with the s-5 set the change more.

Mining has so become a power cost game.  Basically most all of Europe is forced out.  Once my summer rates start i will mine at a 2th 1000 watt rate.

And lose money or if lucky break even.

Heads up - I'm traveling this weekend so please give me until sometime Monday to pay out the reward. The winner please feel free to send your BTC address once the diff adjustment happens, and I'll transfer the reward as soon as I get back.

Regarding rules for the next period: it was suggested to not allow to change the guess. I'll defer the decision to Philip, since he's the one maintaining the list most of the time. So Philip if you want to put that restriction in place please let everyone know in the new thread.

Seems we're heading for a nice drop now. Anyone owning last-gen hardware like the S5 should be in good shape for a few more months.

I am curious about reference to "last gen" as including the S5. So if "last gen" is the S5, what is "current gen" hardware? I am not trying to pick a fight, just trying to understand.

I consider the S5, and SP20, and Aavalon 4.1 to be "current gen". I would put the S3 in the "last gen" category. That's just me though.

Thanks again for the prize you supply, suchmoon.

I just took that to mean latest gen.

Bitcoinwisdom -3.49% with 9.4 hours to go - maybe no one gets it this time round

I will do the no change rule for next adjustment.  Less work and less confusion.

I suggest that everyone wait 2 days to do a pick so they can see the - or + trend.



Last gen  = lastest gen  say s-5 sp20 or avalon 4.1  I think

33 blocks and -3.45%

Shapeshift looks good at the moment.

we have 13 blocks to go and shapeshift is the current leader




he has -3.26 to 3.50%


tss has -3.01 to -3.25%


- 3.51 to 4.00%  are empty

armedmilitia is at -4.01 to -4.25%  some long blocks could be helpful to him

Last of the v8s  is at -2.76% to -3.00%  he needs short blocks

Good luck to those above as we near the finish

8 blocks to go (-3.39%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

 So with 8 blocks left  and at (-3.39%)


1 armedmilitia   -4.01%  to -4.25%
2 rollover no winner -3.76% to -4.00%
3 rollover no winner -3.51% to -3.75%

4 shapeshift   -3.26% to -3.50%  the leader

5 tss      -3.01% to -3.25%  

3 blocks left and -3.72%

It seems that I will just miss it. Was too close   ;)

yeah it moved a lot  late.  we are in the blank zone.

looks like  a carry over  
 
 Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s



Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s

Well at - 3.71%  we get a carry over.


new thread is here. I am locking it up.

 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1031765.0

Well at - 3.71%  we get a carry over.


new thread is here. I am locking it up.

 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1031765.0