Bitcoin Forum

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I, forum member dust, am betting 100BTC at even odds against forum member RoloTonyBrownTown that pirate will fail to pay back his lenders in full.

The outcome of Matthew N. Wright's bet thread, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.0, will decide the winner.
In the event that Matthew N. Wright fails to conclusively decide a winner, nanotube's ruling on Vandroiy's bet against Pirateat40 will decide the winner.
In the case that nanotube's ruling is used, a failure to pay bitlane will not be considered a default.

Theymos will hold both bettors coins until the outcome is decided.
Each bettor has paid theymos a 1 BTC fee for acting as escrow.
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Aug. 27 2012 edit: Matthew's precise date and terms for his bet

Hi :)

Confirmed.  Just to clarify, we're keeping this simple, so if it's decided that Matt has won his bet, then I win this one.  If it's decided that Matt loses his bet, I lose this one.

Dust, with regards to Escrow, can I recommend Graet?   He's a well established member of the community, has plenty to lose (pools etc), and he previously provided Escrow for when I was selling some BFL singles a month or two back.  He was very professional, and he's a nice dude.    Shoot him a PM if you like and have a chat, see what you think.   

Theymos has agreed to act as escrow for this bet for a fee of 2BTC.  RolyTonyBrownTown and I will each send 101BTC to an address provided by theymos.

quoted for record.

good luck u 2.

Coolz.

(thanks Panda)

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I'll escrow for 1 BTC from each of you. Each of you should send 101 BTC to the appropriate address:

RoloTonyBrownTown: 14mDQDopvsBCqvYFPqDFmE9MuHbBsXt1t9
dust: 1Pomp8HMtZrEVYKjHr7wkAEgxTzLdoze1u

Rules:
"The outcome of Matthew N. Wright's bet thread, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.0, will decide the winner. In the event that Matthew N. Wright fails to conclusively decide a winner, nanotube's ruling on Vandroiy's bet against Pirateat40 will decide the winner. In the case that nanotube's ruling is used, a failure to pay bitlane will not be considered a default."
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quoted for record

Thanks Theymos (and Panda again :D).  I'll send that through shortly.

haha, normally I don't thread camp. =) This one just happened to be on top the last few times I hit show unread posts. ;p

100 Bitcoin!?

This is insane. :p.

101BTC sent, txid: 04113fc2af8442cba99c3771f36b2bdb25ed784fcf6b95ac3ee73574356744c8

On its way gents:

txid:  170d75335d2bb47fa1e5bcb8f9a3040aca993bbeae9711471e3d8446ba30b66f

Well, that depends on how much they're worth when all this is over :D  That could be $100 or $1500 I guess :)

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Received. Good luck!
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Rolo vs dust, round 1 / 12 begin !

If I win, I'll buy everyone popcorn. If not, can I have some popcorn guys?

haha, if you don't win, you're gonna be asking Vlad to buy your beers for the next decade. ;p

oh, and @thread Test Your Might (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egne2ZCMM_0)

I finalized the OP and clearsigned it.

Damn, I'm really tempted to throw a couple hundred btc at this...

Nah, I don't drink. Ironically, the reason is because I like to keep a clear head all the time and as in touch with reality is possible. (Did I make you laugh?  :D)

well, that explains it then. All those spare brain cells are driving you mad. I have the same affliction. I always tell my m8's I'm 'high on life' ;p They think I'm a nutter....

Do that here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.500

I'm maxed out ;) 

so your actually betting 101 btc (escrow fee included) to win 100 plus 99 btc back?

We've both bet 100.  2BTC is Theymos' fee.  The winner gets 200BTC.  The loser gets zip.

Hopefully not Zip.A. (Too soon?)

This is the way it should be done.

For the suspicious, theymos' signature checks out.
Also, I love the comment about bitlane.

:D

Seems to me this isn't really even money (in dollars), in that if Pirate pays out, there will be a flood of people selling their proceeds, pushing the price of BTC down.  So dust either wins a lot or loses a little?

No one long on BTC thinks that way.

Why do you think Pirate would keep BTCs for longer than his creditors? If he's on the run he will need fiat. Anything else other than the previous lock will push prices down, but difficulty is way up and block reward halving is closer.

I'm buying with every significant drop.

for the record.  :P

Lol...
Really at this point even theymos being the administrator doesn't mean he can re-write history. That's one of the main functions of PGP signatures -- anyone can dig this message up and prove theymos wrote it.

I don't.  I think that if it's a scam then pirate will have been selling excess bitcoins all along rather than dumping them all at the end.  His lenders didn't have that option.

Indeed.  Everyone seems to think that as soon as people get their Pirate money back (assuming they do), they'll immediately sell.   Well, why?    The only reason I see for doing that is because you think everyone else is going to sell, which is obviously daft :D

Anyway, I won't be selling mine if they're returned.  I'm long BTC.

I'm thinking some people only bought bitcoins to invest with Pirate.  So if they get their coins back they'll likely want their "real money" (as they see it) back.

True, that would be the situation if he actually planned not to pay back since the beginning, rather than just being unable to keep up.

In any case what looks most possible is that these 500K don't exist, and it's a much lower number, around 100K. That amount is not enough to tank the market even if dumped at once.

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Dust wins. Both Matthew and pirateat40 conceded defeat in their respective bets. Where shall I send the 200 BTC, dust?
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Congratulations to dust, and thank you for putting your money where your mouth was.

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Theymos, please send the coins to 1QHLpbjkC5Nz5jNFG15eEWK5MVwDGjhjig
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Sweet.

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Sent. Congrats!
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Funds received.

I guess you are pretty short on BTC now :)

Congrats to dust!

That was quite the pun :D

Good to see someone honour their agreement.

Escrow!

This was cool.. GooD job guys :)

Agreed.    Matthew may have weasled out of his bet,  but I'll be sticking to mine.

Buy something nice with it Dust :)

Even though I've won my 5BTC bet due to Pirate/Matthew's default, I'm withdrawing my bet anyway. Rolo got screwed well enough as it is.

Ah Rassah,  I totally forgot about that.   I agreed to pay up if I lost,  so I still will if you want to post an address.

Ooh, send it to the Bitcoin 100!

Huh, that could work. If you wish, send funds to 1BTC1oo1J3MEt5SFj74ZBcF2Mk97Aah4ac, along with a transaction #, and we'll add you to the list of donors  ;D

That's pretty man of you...considering you had no choice...

Thanks Dust, RoloTonyBrownTown, and Themos, for demonstrating how to do bets in Bitcoin-land if betting on this and that is your thing.

Hah,  yes fair enough :)   Still,  doesn't stop some trying to use vagueness to get out of these things.

But yeah,  Escrow should be mandatory for these things regardless.

I'll shoot the 5BTC to that address shortly,  I'm at work and need to remote into my bitcoin machine.   Don't panic if it's not there in the next few hours ;)

As I said, I'm not holding you to the bet. Honestly I just wanted you do stop shilling for someone who STILL has yet to pay anyone back. If you decide to donate, great. If you don't, I won't even mention it.

Serious question:
Given that you were heavily invested in pirate, bought up bitcoinmax accounts and had this bet, how much have you lost in this whole thing?
I hate to see people losing significant cash...

I should come out just about even after it all.   In hindsight, the Dust bet was a daft one, but I got caught up in the excitement,  and figured Matthew must be pretty damn confident to put all that money on the line.   I didn't really consider that he'd use some (tenuous) loophole to get out of it.    I clearly have too much faith in people as a whole.

Still,  I still think his initial reasoning for the bet was a good one.   I stand by that.

To be honest I think Matthew has truly taken you for a ride, but good on you for staying honest.

Matthew = dust and this whole thing was a ploy to get 100 btc.  :D