Bitcoin Forum

After sitting back and watching for over a year, I'm back in.

When I told a friend who was burned heavier by Mt. Gox than I, he said "Yuck!  The idea makes me a bit sick to my stomach, but in a way I'm oddly proud of you."


So why am I back in?

For a $1,000 investment, I will forever be among the wealthiest 5 million Bitcoin owners in the world as long as I hold.

That may not sound like much, but by comparison, there are 12 million millionaires in the world.  Put another way I own more Bitcoin than 99.928% of the people of the world could ever theoretically own at one time.

Yes, Bitcoin may drop lower, but so might the buying power of a dollar (http://www.intellectualtakeout.org/sites/default/files/value_dollar_value_chart.png)

Yes, web interest has been constant for the last year (https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin), but it's holding at about 50% higher than the summer of 2013 when the price was $100-$150 (http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg730ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv).  And yes, I know that 1.5x the old price would put us slightly below where we are currently at ($150-$225), but I'd rather buy now and have it drop there or even lower than wait for the price to drop to that range and never get back in.

Yes, the USD transaction volume has remained fairly constant for the last year (https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=), but the number of transactions per day has shown consistent growth (https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=).


Yes, it could drop to $0 and I just lost $1000 bucks, but at the same time I know there are others just like I have been:  Sitting, waiting, biding their time until something "clicks" and they are ready to get back in or buy in for the first time.  And as they come, so will the price.  And as the price comes, so will the interest.  And as the interest comes, hopefully the infrastructures will be battle-hardened enough to be able to handle it this time.  And if the infrastructures are able to handle it, we might just make it across The CHASM (http://blog.triplepointpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Technology-Adoption-Lifecycle.png).  And I doubt that even the blackest bear would want to miss out on something as monumental as that...

Good for you.  Encourage all your family and friends to get in as well.

Thanks, it feels good to have my money back where my mouth is :)

That's a good position to be in. 5 BTC is a fine number if it ever goes berserk. Losing $1000 would suck but life would go on regardless. It's a good time for a speculative punt.

This is why they say there's a sucker born every minute. But I'm sure we'll run out of suckaz soon. Right now we have a calm before the drop to 180-200, real soon. Kiss your $1000 good-bye!

it's a great time to get back in bitcoin. every investment is a possible risk, but buying at this price is very smart. just hold them for a long time and you'll be fine.

I applaud your decision to get back in bitcoin.
Make sure to store your coins in a secure place and you will be fine this time. :)

Well done! Together, we can all cross this CHASM (http://blog.triplepointpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Technology-Adoption-Lifecycle.png)

Welcome back!

this is a start but there still too many goxed people out there, that need to fight their fear of losing money and invest in a better currency than their beloved, fiat scam

May your current idea be a inspiration for all the bitcoin users that have stayed away in frustration.

And may your previous experience be the benchmark for new users before they take decide to trust any exchange with their Bitcoin.

Exactly. I don't understand why more people don't realise this.

There are two options:

1) Miss the bottom of the market
2) Miss the next bubble

Yourself and I have chosen option 1. I look forward to meeting everyone who chose option 2 when they carry my luggage upstairs to my 5* hotel in the Bahamas in five years.

There are two ways to calculate risk. And for easy math, let's say you bought 5 coins. The first is to calculate actual money lost. In this case, the potential is that you will lose $1,000. The other is to calculate missed opportunity. If bitcoin were to rise to $1,000 a coin again, you would be sitting on $5,000 for a grand total of $4,000 in profit.

The average person goes, "but I could lose $1,000!" The savvy person goes, "but I missed out on $4,000 profit." When deciding when to invest in something, it is important to look at both numbers to weigh the risk/reward ratio. And, like you, I believe that the reward far surpasses the risk. If I lose the $1,500 I have in bitcoin right, I'll make it back in a week in another investment. But if bitcoin were to rise like I anticipate it to rise, the rewards will be plentiful.

Smart logic. Welcome back!

If you believe that, it's interesting to take a look at the math: 

At $1000/sucker, 1 sucker/minute, and 25 coins mined every 10 minutes, that puts the sucker-price at around $400 before the halving in 15 months.

But then we take it a step further and observer that the population has increased 5 times (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#/media/File:World-Population-1800-2100.svg) since that was first said in the mid 1800's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There%27s_a_sucker_born_every_minute), which brings the current sucker-birth-rate to 5 per minute, pushing the current sucker-price-point past the value of an ounce of gold.

But then it get's weird.  Because we were looking at the pre-sucker-price buyers assuming they were suckers.  But if the price went to $400 or $2000 or whatever your sucker-price calculation yields, the people who bought below that price were actually not the suckers because they get a positive return on their investment.  And so everything is flipped on its nose, and the real suckers are the ones who are late to the party and buy above sucker-price, driving the price even higher before a correction. 

But then are they the suckers?  Because if they hold during that time the sucker-birth-rate keeps doubling.  and doubling.  and doubling...  And Bitcoin production doesn't care.  It just keeps on halving.  And halving.  And halving.  and halving...

dafuk

 :D

thanks, that gave me a proper chuckle

Welcome back!!!

I think your way of looking at it is EXACTLY right!  Your share of the bitcoin ecosystem is fairly significant all for 1000 USD.  Most people seem to think that bitcoin will either go to the moon or crash and burn, as long as the $1000 is not money you need then I think bitcoin is a great way to go long for a big score.

Good Luck!

Good on you. Sorry about your losses with MtGox but you've made correct choice to get back in. I faced similar situation after losing most of my bitcoin in bitcoinica but bought back in and really glad I did. I'm also buying at the moment for first time in ages. I feel that this is near the bottom although prices may drop further in shorter term

 this time hold your bitcoin in your own wallet !

Welcome back in i got goxxed myself pretty hard but i've been very busy and managed to build up a small % of what i lost, im not stopping until i have everything i lost back, with the dropping prices this seems possible.  I also still figure we'll get something back from gox.

I hope so, although after the losses and lawyers I'm hesitant to expect anything more than about a fifth of what we had.  

Speaking of which, we can finally file for our losses (https://www.mtgox.com/)!

Welcome back!!

Definitely a good step. Especially for the people who lost their life-savings. Just imagine getting back a fourth of a million USD, for example. It's still a big loss, but in many cases this could be the difference between being broke and having some nice savings, still.

Very appropriate nickname for your story. Do you plan to hold on your coins long term? My fear is that if everyone gets their coins back, they might be very frustrated with the experience and in fear, dump all of their coins for that filthy fiat.

Update:  Still holding strong!

Also, for the Gox Bankruptcy proceedings (https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20170308_report.pdf): total assets will pass total liabilities when the price reaches $2,542.60 USD/BTC, so that is within striking distance.

However, even though it's nice there's a chance to get the full amount back, it's still bittersweet since that would be worth only 17.8% of Bitcoin held over the same time period...

So at what point are you happy with the recovery / profit? You bought in the low 200 range, it was a good time to pick up quite a lot of coin for me as well. Is this price enough for you or do you feel greedy and want to go for the top?

I believe Bitcoin has the best potential to equal or even surpass the level of the USD/Euro/JPY/GBP/Yuan/etc. (if the transaction throughput problem is solved, paving the way for use as a global currency), gold/silver/diamonds (if it instead remains primarily an inflation-proof store of value), or both.  If that happens, we are talking $100,000/BTC minimum.  

I also believe Bitcoin has the potential to be surpassed by another crypto (more-likely) or fade away like tulip-mania (less-likely).  Thus, I have invested an amount I am comfortable never seeing again and have resolved myself to seeing the result of this binary proposition through to the end.  

So to answer your question I am definitely happy with the growth thus far, but I'm in it for the long haul.  The interesting thing about that is that by the time I would ready to take profits, the logical choice would be to take the profits in Bitcoin.