Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Sant001 on August 31, 2012, 05:49:07 AM



Title: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: Sant001 on August 31, 2012, 05:49:07 AM
I think the most likely scenario is that he will pay some, but not all the coins owed.

So we'll have (1) some coins hitting the exchanges and (2) some bad press coverage related to the partial default.

Both events would tend to drive prices down at least short term, right? What you guys think?


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: payb.tc on August 31, 2012, 05:51:48 AM
from now until dec 2, it's gradually going to increase to somewhere between $15 and $20.


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: HDSolar on August 31, 2012, 05:55:06 AM
from now until dec 2, it's gradually going to increase to somewhere between $15 and $20.

+1 But not dec 2, more like Nov 20=BFL ASIC effect will be in full effect.  If I am wrong then I am  ;D


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: waspoza on August 31, 2012, 08:51:14 AM
from now until dec 2, it's gradually going to increase to somewhere between $15 and $20.

+1 But not dec 2, more like Nov 20=BFL ASIC effect will be in full effect.  If I am wrong then I am  ;D

What mining hardware has to do with BTC price?


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: bitcats on August 31, 2012, 09:58:49 AM
from now until dec 2, it's gradually going to increase to somewhere between $15 and $20.

And after that date?


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: SolarSilver on August 31, 2012, 10:37:14 AM
What mining hardware has to do with BTC price?

People are afraid that the new ASIC processing will flood the market with new, cheaper (faster obtained) coins and those will be cashed in asap to recover the ASIC investment, thus driving down prices.

Pure speculation as other factors are at play as well, like difficulty will go up and more unprofitable GPU (electric costs) operators will call it quits. Volatility can cause up or down prices...


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: unclescrooge on August 31, 2012, 11:21:31 AM
What mining hardware has to do with BTC price?

People are afraid that the new ASIC processing will flood the market with new, cheaper (faster obtained) coins and those will be cashed in asap to recover the ASIC investment, thus driving down prices.

Lol


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: mobodick on August 31, 2012, 11:28:23 AM
What mining hardware has to do with BTC price?

People are afraid that the new ASIC processing will flood the market with new, cheaper (faster obtained) coins and those will be cashed in asap to recover the ASIC investment, thus driving down prices.

Lol

Care to elaborate?


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: waspoza on August 31, 2012, 11:29:22 AM
What mining hardware has to do with BTC price?

People are afraid that the new ASIC processing will flood the market with new, cheaper (faster obtained) coins and those will be cashed in asap to recover the ASIC investment, thus driving down prices.

Pure speculation as other factors are at play as well, like difficulty will go up and more unprofitable GPU (electric costs) operators will call it quits. Volatility can cause up or down prices...

Ye but this is bullshit. There is 7,2k coins mined daily and 60k coins traded daily only in mtgox/usd market. So even if mining double, its still too small volume to crash the market. Not to mention that difficulty will trigger and even things out.


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: unclescrooge on August 31, 2012, 11:32:22 AM
What mining hardware has to do with BTC price?

People are afraid that the new ASIC processing will flood the market with new, cheaper (faster obtained) coins and those will be cashed in asap to recover the ASIC investment, thus driving down prices.

Pure speculation as other factors are at play as well, like difficulty will go up and more unprofitable GPU (electric costs) operators will call it quits. Volatility can cause up or down prices...

Ye but this is bullshit. There is 7,5k coins mined daily and 60k coins traded daily only in mtgox/usd market. So even if mining double, its still too small volume to crash the market. Not to mention that difficulty will trigger and even things out.

this

there a fixed amount of coins mined every day, and even if 100 thash/s of asic come at once, things will even out quickly.


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: bitarrow on August 31, 2012, 02:33:33 PM
and the reward will be cut in half before your "effect" takes place.

Also some of us with rigs might just save the coins or sell off exchange ;)


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: proudhon on August 31, 2012, 02:46:17 PM
from now until dec 2, it's gradually going to increase to somewhere between $15 and $20.


I think it's the other way round, er, wait, I'm a bull, I mean.


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: mobodick on August 31, 2012, 03:57:49 PM
from now until dec 2, it's gradually going to increase to somewhere between $15 and $20.


I think it's the other way round, er, wait, I'm a bull, I mean.

........http://i704.photobucket.com/albums/ww47/monomeric/BearBull.gif........


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: Sitarow on August 31, 2012, 04:29:35 PM
What mining hardware has to do with BTC price?

People are afraid that the new ASIC processing will flood the market with new, cheaper (faster obtained) coins and those will be cashed in asap to recover the ASIC investment, thus driving down prices.

Pure speculation as other factors are at play as well, like difficulty will go up and more unprofitable GPU (electric costs) operators will call it quits. Volatility can cause up or down prices...

If I were to make BTC on ASIC hardware then I would use said BTC on more ASIC hardware.


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: kjj on August 31, 2012, 04:49:29 PM
Deadline?  What did I miss?


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: mobodick on August 31, 2012, 04:54:11 PM
Deadline?  What did I miss?

It ended 2 hours ago...


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: _mr_e on August 31, 2012, 06:36:57 PM
Didn't he just say he defaulted days ago? What new deadline?


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: proudhon on August 31, 2012, 06:38:48 PM
Didn't he just say he defaulted days ago? What new deadline?

OMG people.  As a debtor your default doesn't start when you make some kind of official announcement.  It starts when you don't make a payment or otherwise violate the agreement you have with your lender.  Pirates default started almost 2 weeks before he made his official announcement.


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: Steve on August 31, 2012, 07:21:09 PM
Even though ASIC hardware will start to ship in late October, I doubt enough of the hardware will get into the hands of enough people to have a huge impact before the reward is cut to 25 BTC in early December.  Even if it does, the difficulty won't jump upward in a straight line, it will steadily increase.  One thing is for certain however, the number of new coins that will come into existence between now and the drop to 25 for the reward is fixed.  ASIC might accelerate the drop by a few days, but probably not more than that.  Halving of the daily supply of new bitcoins, and the anticipation of that, is likely to make the price rise (possibly by a lot).


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: niko on August 31, 2012, 07:52:28 PM
from now until dec 2, it's gradually going to increase to somewhere between $15 and $20.

+1 But not dec 2, more like Nov 20=BFL ASIC effect will be in full effect.  If I am wrong then I am  ;D

What mining hardware has to do with BTC price?

A lot. Most important connections are confused thinking, self-fullfilled prophecies, and the herd mentality.


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: old_engineer on August 31, 2012, 09:49:43 PM

What mining hardware has to do with BTC price?

A lot. Most important connections are confused thinking, self-fullfilled prophecies, and the herd mentality.

Well said! In the short run, perception is often more important than reality around here.  Reality tends to win in the long run, but as they say, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent (actually a Keynes quote : https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Maynard_Keynes ).


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: Sant001 on September 01, 2012, 12:01:42 AM
Deadline?  What did I miss?

Pirate gave his pass-throughs this deadline to send him the sub-accounts:

...
<hashking> When is the deadline to send this to you.
<pirateat40> Chaang-Noi, I know it's not something you can do with bonds and have relayed that information but I don't have an answer for you yet.
<patrickharnett> I can have mine compiled quite quickly as the bonds can simply be repurchased and I only have three sub accounts - when would payment be?
<[\\\]> I have mine ready already
<[\\\]> its a google doc
<pirateat40> hashking, Friday by midnight.
<pirateat40> [\\\] perfect
<gigavps> pirateat40 what are the next steps beyond this?
<hashking> I can't have it done by then.
<[\\\]> seriously, a basic timeline
<[\\\]> we've been very patient, you need to give us a little something.
<pirateat40> gigavps, I don't have a timeline other than Friday at midnight at this point.
<hashking> What are you intentions.  What if I can't get you the information by friday.
<Chaang-Noi> im going to have to run this stuff by my lawyer.
<Chaang-Noi> this seems off...
<hashking> For once I will agree with goat
<reeses> it's pretty standard for a default
<hashking> So then there will be no payment.
<reeses> assets have to be divided fairly
<Chaang-Noi> pirate, do you have any assets to be divided?
<patrickharnett> a list of creditors yes, but the passing on of additional information is unusual
<[\\\]> gigavps, we're over here, wrong channel
<gigavps> oops
<gigavps> pirateat40 can you please explain how you are using the term default?
<gigavps> pirateat40 is there a liquidation preference or priority?
<pirateat40> No timeline or further information is available at this time.
<Chaang-Noi> pirate, can you make your lawyers phone number public? i want to have somethings confirmed.
<reeses> that might be the smart move, because you can say things now that fuck you into piercing your corp. shield
<pirateat40> Chaang-Noi, those details will be available on Friday and all communication will be by certified mail.
...


Title: Re: Will bitcoin price tank today on Pirate's new deadline?
Post by: BrightAnarchist on September 01, 2012, 12:24:16 AM
Deadline?  What did I miss?

Pirate gave his pass-throughs this deadline to send him the sub-accounts:

...
<hashking> When is the deadline to send this to you.
<pirateat40> Chaang-Noi, I know it's not something you can do with bonds and have relayed that information but I don't have an answer for you yet.
<patrickharnett> I can have mine compiled quite quickly as the bonds can simply be repurchased and I only have three sub accounts - when would payment be?
<[\\\]> I have mine ready already
<[\\\]> its a google doc
<pirateat40> hashking, Friday by midnight.
<pirateat40> [\\\] perfect
<gigavps> pirateat40 what are the next steps beyond this?
<hashking> I can't have it done by then.
<[\\\]> seriously, a basic timeline
<[\\\]> we've been very patient, you need to give us a little something.
<pirateat40> gigavps, I don't have a timeline other than Friday at midnight at this point.
<hashking> What are you intentions.  What if I can't get you the information by friday.
<Chaang-Noi> im going to have to run this stuff by my lawyer.
<Chaang-Noi> this seems off...
<hashking> For once I will agree with goat
<reeses> it's pretty standard for a default
<hashking> So then there will be no payment.
<reeses> assets have to be divided fairly
<Chaang-Noi> pirate, do you have any assets to be divided?
<patrickharnett> a list of creditors yes, but the passing on of additional information is unusual
<[\\\]> gigavps, we're over here, wrong channel
<gigavps> oops
<gigavps> pirateat40 can you please explain how you are using the term default?
<gigavps> pirateat40 is there a liquidation preference or priority?
<pirateat40> No timeline or further information is available at this time.
<Chaang-Noi> pirate, can you make your lawyers phone number public? i want to have somethings confirmed.
<reeses> that might be the smart move, because you can say things now that fuck you into piercing your corp. shield
<pirateat40> Chaang-Noi, those details will be available on Friday and all communication will be by certified mail.
...

So it's friday... are "those details available" now?