Bitcoin Forum

What will be the value of one Bitcoin when the number of users (people that will want to use Bitcoin) will hit 21 millions?

At this point, if each user wanted to have 1 Bitcoin, will have to pay a certain number of $ or € or Y, whatever. I'm going with $ just because it's the most used around the world.

How many $ do you think that person, the n. 21 millionth, who wants to buy 1 BTC will have to pay to obtain it?

My wild guess is: 160000 $.

A lot more than we thing probably. Always take into account there are way less coins available than 21 million, a ton of them are lost forever, and a lot more aren't even mined yet, so if that threshold is surpassed the price goes higher. I cant honestly give you an exact number. I like the Xapo's CEO prediction: between 500.000 and 1 MM dollars.

Not to forget Satoshi's coins, which I think will never be used.
21 million users is not too outrageous. It is just 2% of facebook's active users.
I would say $10k will be breached when this happens.

There's a very small amount of people sitting on a great deal of coins. If there were that many people clamouring in quick succession it's quite possible sellers would just go on strike and the price would way overshoot a realistic value.

too much i think, it does not scale well with the possibility of having 1B people using bitcoin, i mean if with only 21M people you have already one btc at 1M which mean 33k times higher, than at 1B you will have something which will suprass the whole world's GDP by an order of magnitude...

I don't know, I think that when we will be heading towards 21 millions users, there will be so much rising in request already that the price will blow up in unpredictable manner.
It will probably also spike up into a bubble and then fall back down to the real value.
And I think Satoshis will much probably be used before 10 years from now.

Remember if bitcoin becomes too expensive to use (eg. a satoshi is worth more than a cent) there can always be alternatives like litecoin for the cheaper transactions and bitcoin to store the wealth.

OK but just give your quote!  ;)

The problem is, if Litecoin isn't so rock solid in value like Bitcoin, people will still want Bitcoin to store their assets.
N. of people trusting in the cryptocurrency is EVERYTHING that gives value to that cryptocurrency.
At least, at the moment, and for quite much time still.

There's no "too expensive" term.
People will buy what they can.
Much, much probably, 21 millionth Bitcoin adopter won't be able to buy an entire Bitcoin anyway.

IMHO those very few people actually control the majority of bitcoins. This is a problem that not many people like to face or address. It is one of the things that keeps us from hitting mainstream.

Top Hoarder: "Hey world, accept this new form of currency. Sure I own and control 8% of all of it, but it is great. DECENTRALIZATION FTW."

World: "No thanks, that would give you singly way too much power. I think we will find a different way to revolutionize money."

so bitcoin Mars and Litecoin Moon  ;) ?

but in every case: we should switch to bits because people are confused, they tend to think that they can only buy 1 Bitcoin  ::)

Well that would mean one bitcoin would be worth more than $1 million. I thought that they could always add more decimal places if that were ever to happen.

Totally agree, whales should sell their amount or they would have too much power.

coinbase has a wallets in circulation chart

it's many millions and the more wallets they put out the cheaper btc gets

so 21 M wallets would be 30 buck btc if you look at the most recent growth of users to value the past 18 months

lot's of new users and value is way down

so recent data shows the more people with btc wallets or btc, the less value it has

now if you got data that shows something the last 18 months use it

the big hype in btc was related to the negative news, the big bust of the pirate

oh btc is used by drug dealers, let me get some

bingo, 50 buck btc went to 1200 btc

then it's been in free fall since

millions of new users and huge value losses

so to say 21m wallets means X value has no basis in reality

you look at the big value bubble it was negative news saying btc was how drug dealers moved money around

bingo lots of newbs buying and price spike

now users is growing in mega millions as coinbase wallet data shows

yet the value is in free fall

so more users puts the value around 30 bucks

if you understand the last 18 months of negative value growth and how more users did nothing to help the value

You don't seem to understand what I meant.
I didn't talk about WALLETS, I talk about USERS.
I know there's a huge number of wallets out there and they in no way represent the real number of users.
I myself had installed and uninstalled at least 6-7 different software wallets and subscribed to several websites with webwallets.

Also, it looks you are really badly informed on how the MtGox question brought the value of Bitcoin to the stars.
It was MtGox itself manipulating the market and sending Bitcoin value to the moon, NOT the fact that MtGox was caught.

Also, there was no real "value loss", unless you bought Bitcoin at those unreal prices (and those who did... well... lol), because the REAL price was before MtGox manipulated the market.

The loss of value is due to several reasons, but nobody can say which is the most influencing.
Personally, I think many are selling Bitcoin because they didn't see their investment come true in an year or two. That is naive, but they are probably dumping because of this. They expected Bitcoin to be adopted by millions and millions of people in a couple years? Extremely naive.
Also, mining difficulty hit a wall and this took off some value as well.
But just wait that the number of Bitcoins goes from 25 to 12.5 per block...

So, basically, if you think that Bitcoin will decrease in value, as more and more people will increase its reputation and adopt it, you are COMPLETELY out of way.

That wasn't the main problem in his post, dude... would have been glad if it was  :-[

The crazy thing is that if you really look at the numbers, and consider that a reasonable number of people around the world start using bitcoin as a storage of value, then those numbers (500k-1mil) are not far fetched at all.

With the recent developments (nasdaq, citi bank, etc) I think btc awareness is growing, and we are fast approaching a turning point.

That being said, I don't think all that money would flow in to btc exclusively.  I think that what would happen is that other, better coins would have their caps raised as well.  For example a rise in ltc makes sense as the transaction time is much lower, or maybe one of the anon coins would get boosted.

Either way we are in exciting times.

This is a thing I love to talk about.
My thought is that REPUTATION is the biggest point in favour of a cryptocurrency at the moment.
This because cryptocurrencies are NOT trusted by the mainstream, and thus the one that will boom is the one that will have most users, because more users mean more reliability.
This is why Bitcoin is becoming more and more solid along time.

But of course there are other considerations to do.
Bitcoin is NOT the best technology around. And this could be its damnation in the future.
BUT, it's also true that Bitcoin technology CAN be updated.
So, let's say that Bitcoin WILL be kept up to date technologically, WHAT would a person push to invest in, say, Litecoin, instead than in Bitcoin?

Think about it: Bitcoin is the most implemented crypto around the world.
Sure, you can't use it so often or easily yet, but that's growing, while other crypto are at the bar. Frozen in there. Just used as a mean of exchange between themselves.
So get into a common person, that will want to buy a crypto in 2 years, why would they orient to Litecoin, instead than Bitcoin, that has been adopted by far more people, implemented in far more shops, and has (and will probably have) a far more solid value?

Be clear that I LIKE very much Litecoin, because it's capped higher, and I consider the 21 million Bitcoin cap too low.
But as Bitcoin CAN be made more granular, also this problem could disappear probably very quickly in the future, if needed.

Anyway, this is the real slot machine of the future: will altcoins survive? How many of them?
I think maybe 3 or 4 will survive, for a period and, unless Bitcoin is destroyed for some reason we can't imagine yet, other crypto will disappear in the end.

They'll be like cockroaches. Nothing will kill them off and there'll always be a tiny hard core bleating at each other on here or elsewhere about how they're about to turn the corner.

Alts that fill specific purposes may thrive in a quiet way or just be eaten by a layer on top of BTC.

Alts offer the same pointlessness as BTC appears to the wider public now. Why would I use my BTC to buy LTC to buy something? Less people will accept it and there's another layer of volatility on top.

I think there are a few legitimate coins that serve a purpose and deserve a big marketcap.
XMR for the extra anonymity for the lack of a better solution for the anonymity problem with Bitcoin right now.
Storj for the decentralized storage features.
Maidsafe for the decentralized internet (really ambitious project).
Ethereum is maybe way too ambitious actually, and may fail because of that, but I guess is worth looking at as well.

Litecoin has the second biggest blockchain out there. that has some value too. it will not win against btc, but to be no.2 is not bad.

yep and a lot more that will come for sure.

btw about the main question, just omagine if only mmm arrounda 10-15% of the world population start to use it, can you imagine that?


if this happend 160000 $ will be to low ;)

It's not IF, but WHEN.
And when that'll happen, Bitcoin trustees will have to add a couple of decimals after the dot.

But 10% of world population is not 21 million, it's 750 millions.

So, I have to ask... does anyone know the ballpark figure of how many regular Bitcoin users there are now?  It's not even close to how many wallets there are, so what number are we looking at?

the last estimate was talking about 3M or 3.5M users base for bitcoin, i don't know how reliable it is but it should not be so far away from reality

if you consider 4B with an users base of 4M , with an users base of 4B we can have 4T in market cap, if we follow a simple linearity

Nobody knows that, only estimates can be taken.

Found this article stating 1.3 million users: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-users-approach-5-million-mark-2019-juniper-research-reports/

But I suspect is far below that number.
I'd say we are around 700000-900000 holding more than 0.2 BTC of value.

Even if we reach 1 Million in 10 years or more, how many of us, do you guys think, will be tempted to cash out at 5.000 Dollars? 20.000 Dollars? 100.000 Dollars? Because we'll never be sure if it hasn't been the peak.

Once you are aware that Bitcoin exists something enters your mind: You are on a never ending battle to obtain at least 1 full BTC. I think every single person that is supportive of BTC owns or is on a mission to obtain at least one.
If 21 million have that mindset, the price would explode.

if 21 million users meant a BTC value of 160,000, that would imply that the average btc owner has 160k in bitcoins.

Is that realistic? I don't think so. What's a more realistic number? Probably somewhere around 1,000-2,000. So that's what the price will stabilize at, assuming the number of users stay at 21 million long enough for stabilization, but not so long that bitcoin stagnates and becomes irrelevant.


But if it was during a huge pump, perhaps because some garage geniuses created killer apps for bitcoin, then it could go an order of magnitude higher.

21Million users is different from 21 million coins in existence. We'll probably hit 21 million users long before the 21 millionth coin is mined (which is expected to happen in over 100 years). Remember that the mining package won't be in single coins at that point, it's possible that the 21 millionth coin is never mined because it would be way to expensive to do so. Perhaps the person that earns that coin is the one who mined it, for nostalgic sake.

I wonder what your price would be in present value dollars (accounting for inflation over the next 120 years)? The value of today's Dollar would only have to inflate 551x for $160,000 when the 21 millionth coin is mined to have the spending power of today's $290.

You won't be cashing out... ever, if Bitcoin will hold up, because Bitcoin will REPLACE fiat currency.
You will just... use it.

The problem is: what do you mean by realistic?
Maybe in 2011 people bought or mined Bitcoin in hope to have, one day, 10$ per Bitcoin.
Now they have 270$ per Bitcoin.

Now, if you think that in a not too far future Bitcoin will see a future of in increased market request, price will rise accordingly.
There's no escape to that.
So yes, now your BTC values around 270$, but while the system gains reputation around the world, price will rise.
And nobody can know how much it will end up reaching.

Of course it's like you say: that 21 millionth user I chose is just to make a "round count" with all the BTC that can ever be mined.

We are already more than 1 million around the globe now, probably around 1.5 millions.
I think we'll be 2 millions by the end of 2015.
Considering a geometric growth, we'll probably be 4 millions by the end of 2016 (I still take into account the fact that ALL of us actually using Bitcoins are open minded, tech savvy, more or less young guys, and for the rest of people it's more difficult to make them Bitcoiners, so there WILL be a brake into mainstream penetration, to geometric growth).
7 millions by end 2017.
12 millions by end 2018.
We'll probably hit 21 millions Bitcoiners before end 2019.




Mhhh don't consider the 21 millionth bitcoin, but the 21 millionth BITCOINER  ;D

If my prevision is right, by 2019, the 160000$ growth may be even very underestimated.
Now more actors are coming into the game: banks, credit cards, altcoins and more.
There will be a period of "natural selection" that could keep slowing down Bitcoin adoption while people try this and that altcoin or credit card alternative, only to find that, in the end, Bitcoin is really all they need :D

Mhhh that's quite unrealistic: consider all those companies that need hundreds or thousands of Bitcoins to work, like in exampe remittances services.
But you are right that some people will just want that ONE BTC in their pocket, because why not :D
The problem is, price will rise... and rise... and rise... to a point where very few people will manage to get that ONE btc.
Bitcoin value will be so high that only fractions of BTC will be bought by common people.
That's why we early adopters, even today buyers, are very lucky people.

Can you tell how it could replace fiat? I se no possible way that could ever happen. If fiat should fail there is no way to buy bitcoin with that fiat since noone would sell and there is no way of getting bitcoin spread around without everybody buying it.

Exactly, we can't talk about what is or isn't realistic when brand new technology that can discover we can do now things we didn't even thought about before. The price is indeed invaluable. If you told anyone back in 2009 that BTC would reach 100 you would be deemed mentally insane. Imagine if you said 1000, or higher than gold.
Thing is, the future is an white paper not written yet, anything is possible.

Ye, still predictions can be made, and the game is fun  ;D

It's not the first time a country replaces its own currency with another one.
Latest example is Zimbabwe: http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/in-zimbabwe-1-will-cost-35-000000000000000-local-dollars/article7309953.ece

I don't know how this worked in the past, but seeing Bitcoin is not being possibly regulated in any way, it will probably go that early adopters like us are paying nearly nothing for it now, while in the future the price for one Bitcoin will increase considerably. Or better: exponentially, as we are just a small fraction of world population.

Now, this doesn't mean a person will have to buy always 1 BTC: that's simply impossible, also because there's only 21 millions.
So it's already in the blueprint that people will use mBTC or even smaller amounts like uBTC will be used for everyday exchanges.

Now the Bitcoin market cap is over 4 billion $.
This will continue to grow, up to a point where the Bitcoin market cap and the $ in circulation will be the same.
At that point, not only Bitcoin will grow in value due to increased market request, but $ inflation will begin to become unbearable.

The last persons on the planet buying Bitcoin, will buy it at a value that could well be 1 BTC = 1 billion $ (of todays value, in future, $ inflation could change that A LOT, it could be trillions).
But those persons won't be buying 1 BTC, they will buy a fraction of it, like 2 mBTC in example, or some uBTC in exchange of some thousand dollars: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=86894.0

So don't think that "one day there will be no $ to buy BTC, so that's impossible".
Think that 1) everything is possible, but even more, 2) replacement will happen slowly, more probably everybody will have some $ together with BTC for a long time yet.
Shops will accept BTC and $ for a long time.
But one day many shops will just want to cut out $ and live happy with BTC.

There's also another scenario: once one government will see Bitcoin can't be stopped, and its fiat currency being overwhelmed in inflation, it will declare its fiat currency obsolete and make it mandatory to replace it with Bitcoin before it goes out of course.
That will be probably the point when all fiat currencies will collapse and Bitcoin price will boost in a completely unpredictable manner: nobody will want fiat currency anymore, so from that point on, fiat currency will get away from the scenario, because it will be less and less accepted in venues.

Zimbabwe did not choose a currency with a very limited suply. They choose dollars. Rest of what you said does not make sense at all. Nobody will sell a single bitcoin if bitcoin seems to be the dominant currency. Give me a single sane way bitcoin could replace fiat.

I like gentlemand's explanation/prediction the best. I agree, if the demand is through the roof and there are over 21 million actual bitcoin users, many people would likely stop selling or saying "yea I'll sell you one for a billion dollars".  ;D

I don't like this your spirit, it means you can't understand what I write.
I may be wrong, but you are being a bit too presumptuous in your statement for my taste.

You say: nobody will sell bitcoin if that's the dominant currency.
That's in part true.
But think for a moment: why are people selling $ or €? THESE ARE DOMINANT CURRENCIES.
The only problem will come when there will be so few shops around accepting fiat currency, that nobody will want to give you some BTC in exchange for fiat: what the hell will they do with that currency?
Not your business: there are always people less clever than others that remain stuck to something even when it's going to be completely useless.

There are people still using light bulbs, just because a led light is more expensive than holding that light bulb.
They can't even understand how much electricity they pay every year with that bulb.
Other people can't even believe you can have an electric scooter and pay 1.3 € for 100 Km travel.

There will probably be some communities that will want to remain on paper currency because "fuck government wants to spy our every move with online transactions! I won't allow them!" in example (I heard a lot of this).

So, dude, it's ok, I may be wrong, but what I write has a sense, maybe you can't understand it fully now, but you will in the future.

Also, the fact that Zimbabwe has choosen dollars doesn't change a bit my reasoning: one day, some unlucky retarded guy will still have 900 betatrizillion zimbabwe dollars, will go to the bank and the bank will give him 5$ for that. Or more possibly, 5 uBTC.
 And those may be his savings of one life.
That's exactly what will happen with Bitcoin: somebody is first, somebody is last. The last ones will cry.

Obviously if the demand is bigger than the supply, the price goes up.  It will go to levels where some
buyers and sellers agree on the price, just like any other scarce resource.
This isn't rocket science.  Just like premium domain names became worth millions of dollars once
everyone realized they wanted one and there weren't enough to go around.  The only difference
is that Bitcoin is divisible, and that actually will help bring the demand even higher because it eliminates
barriers to entry based on price, thus increasing the market for buyers.

People ARE selling $... for Bitcoins.
It happens all the time ;)

You make a new fiat? And for what? It has the same amount of problem of the old fiat, like just to say one, being centralized.
Here YOU are being just stubborn and making a weak figure.

If the price of led rised to insane heights... they would buy less of that led light, because it would mean that fraction of a led light would light up like their light bulb. You just can't reason in fractions.

That last guy giving some uBTC for those zimbadollars, would probably spend them in the last shop that still accept them... and the owner of the shop would probably then use them to warm his house by burning them.
You can't know, and that's why I gave you the example of stupid people.

The only way fiat centralized currency COULD stay forever, is if governments will find a way to stop cryptocurrencies adoption.
If this doesn't happen, they will one day disappear.

My discussion with you ends here as there's no point in proceeding.

That is not true. I never said bitcoins can't reach 160k/coin. I'm not talking about the value per coin. I'm talking about the amount of wealth the average bitcoiner holds.

We know that bitcoiners are pretty much average or slightly above average in terms of wealth, based on surveys taking by coindesk etc. The average person is worth ~50k USD. So how can the average bitcoiner have more than triple that amount in bitcoins? Note that we're not even considering their other assets. They won't be putting absolutely everything they own into bitcoin.

It just isn't possible. It has nothing to do with the technology or how much bitcoin blockchain should be worth. Simply that given only 21 million users, a value of 160k isn't possible. But with 2.1 Billion users, 160k is totally possible.

Man, think in fractions.
If one Bitcoin in future will value 1 million dollars, this means you will be able to buy with one Bitcoin, 1 million dollars of stuff.
That doesn't mean that a person that has 50000$ can't buy a fraction of Bitcoin: that fraction that evaluates to 50000$, and still buy stuff for 50000$ worth of Bitcoins.
Can you understand this mechanism?
It's only difficult to accept it because of the STRETCH that will be reached by Bitcoin value.

They will make a new fiat or their own crypto because they cant afford bitcoin. Bitcoin are being hoarded by you and everybody else on this forum to get rich. As soon as there is a demand everyone will sell as high as possible and noone can buy. There is nothing with bitcoin that makes it better than any other currency. It is just the first crypto.

"My discussion with you ends here as there's no point in proceeding."  You made a claim about bitcoin going to replace fiat and i just asked you to explain how that would happen. If you cant tell me how that could happen there is not much reason to discuss since you cant back your claim.

I do think this is a good question since many on this forum belive bitcoin will replace another currency but have no idea about how that is suppose to happen.

I wrote HOW, and I wrote in the simplest way I can. Bye.

You are regurgitating common answers to common misconceptions about bitcoin that has nothing to do with what I said.

It has nothing to do with fractions or satoshis. If there are 21 million bitcoins, and there are 21 million bitcoin users, and each bitcoin is worth 160k, then by default of those parameters, the average holdings per bitcoin user is worth 160k USD. That is the definition of average.

And because the wealth of bitcoiners closely reflect the wealth of average people, the above scenario is VERY unlikely to happen. The key here is the limiter of 21 million bitcoin users. Without that assumption, then anything goes. But that assumption limits a lot of scenarios.

I think US$ 10K per 1 Btc logicly will be happen soon for the next several years and we dont have to wait for 21 M user of bitcoin..cause it will happen very soon

Try a simpler way. One that can work in the real world.

At the moment bitcoin its much more like paypal and neteller than a currency. You can store and send funds quite easy but thats it.

You seem to not understand how markets and price discovery works.
When "no one can buy", the price ticks higher until there is an agreement
between buyers and sellers based on the volume needed to be traded.

From investopedia:

I am not regurgitating anything.

Bitcoin is not reflecting anything at the moment, apart the wish, from a large group of people, to invest in a new technology.

If there are 21 million bitcoiners, and each of them wants some bitcoin, he will buy what he can.

If you think the average bitcoiner will have 160000$ holdings you are deeply wrong.
As you would be wrong thinking the average bitcoiner now has 270$ holdings...

Wealth of bitcoiners doesn't reflect ANYTHING about their wealth.

I just posted the thread with a 21 millionth bitcoiner as compared to the cap of 21 million bitcoins (which is also wrong, because it's not exactly 21 millions).

So in this "thought experiment" you should only imagine HOW MUCH REQUEST FOR BITCOINS THERE WILL BE, when bitcoiners will hit n. 21 millions.
If growth would be linear, and we are now 1.5 millions then when we'll hit 21 millions the count would be 21/1.5*270 (actual price) = 3780$ only.
But there are more factors to put in, like the daily traffic in example, and I don't think the value increase in a linear way, I also think the intrinsic value of Bitcoin is underestimated at the moment.
But all of this goes into the equation, you can say whatever value you want a Bitcoin will have, when the 21 millionth bitcoin user will want to buy some bitcoin.
He will buy what he can or what he wants.
Doesn't have anything to do with average holdings.
Nobody has transformed his entire wealth in Bitcoins. Nobody.

1. I am not deeply wrong, that is the definition of average. total amount divided by the number of people. That's what average means. 21M * 160k / 21M = 160k. It's very simple math, if you can't understand that, there's no point in continuing this conversation.

2. I don't think the average bitcoiner holds $270 worth of bitcoins, because the number of bitcoiners are not exactly the same as the number of coins. Again, you should probably learn what "average" means. To clarify, I am not talking about the median or mode. I am talking about the average, or "mean".

3. Sure it does. If a person owns $10 worth of bitcoins, his net worth is AT LEAST $10. It can't be less. Unless he has liabilities of course, but that's a completely different topic.

4. If you're going to ignore the OP and completely change the question to your own, then, well, you're free to do that, but you should probably just start your own thread instead.

The problem is that only a handfull of people have bitcoin. And of those handfull there are about 100 that have insane amounts. That would not sound good to normal people. And by normal i dont count those who see crypto as a salvation against the evil goverment but those who just want to live a normal life. I also think normal people would stick to the national currency and would not care if that was a crypto or fiat. Bitcoin is never going to be a national currency so that would be a party pooper.

Even if there is a demand for a replacement for fiat there is noone who would trade all they own for bitcoin when the price skyrocket. They would look for something widespread not something less used than Zynga chips. The rules for trade only works for trade. People dont want to trade currencies they want to buy bread and milk.

It's incredible how some people simply can't catch the whole picture.
You tell him that when 1 BTC will value 100000 $, people will still buy a part of it, it's not mandatory to buy ONE Bitcoin.
He still say that people will raise the price so high that no one can buy, because he still thinks people will want to buy ONE Bitcoin.
He can't accept that people will exchange what they can for the equivalent in Bitcoins, like 500 mBTC or 3420 uBTC in example.
And that all of that will be totally proportional to what can be bought with either BTC or $.
He just can't catch it.

If in the future there will be so much request for Bitcoins that 1 BTC will equal to 1 trillion $, then well yes, I'll set the bar to 1 trillion $ for my BTC, and whoever will want to buy, he will buy a fraction of that BTC.
If at that time 1 satoshi or 1$ will buy you a cappuccino, and you will want 50000$ in Bitcoins, then you will get from me 0.00050000 Bitcoins.
I will still sell you bitcoins, because there will still be some shops accepting $.
Then there will be less, and you will have to pay even more $ to have some Bitcoins.
And then there will be less shops accepting $.
And less. And I will still raise the price of my Bitcoins.
And at one point, AS I WROTE, the less gifted part of world population will still be sitting on a pile of $ or € or £ etc. and the only use they will be able to do of those will be to warm up their houses by throwing them in the chimney.

How many people hold how much of this huge part of Bitcoins?
I'm ignorant in this.
But I agree that if 50% of Bitcoins is held by 5 people, then those 5 will become the world's dominators, and people will surely move onto something else.
But this is not the discussion we were holding before. We were talking about "no more fiat to buy crypto".

Anyway, even in this case of unfair money distribution, people could just let Bitcoin fall and move onto another cryptocurrency.
Or a couple of those.
And let Bitcoin freefall unless the whales sell at fair price.
But whales could also never be traced back if they use some anonymizing service... we would never know.

BTC will be 50 cents or 5 cents

I agree it is a problem from the aspect that there is an adoption chasm
where the innovators are buying bitcion but the massive wave of early adopters
hasn't started because they're not sufficiently incentivized to do so.

Still, I think adoption is creeping forward and will continue..
 
 

When?

May I ask why? Just curious.

when it will happen? And for what reason?

Maybe he's selling off his lover's coins who so brutally spurned him.

He's just trolling I guess. Sure no one can predict the future and many possibilities are imaginable. But Bitcoin going down to almost 0 seems very unlikely.

Yes. Perhaps "buying a bitcoin" will sound like "buying a Billion $" sounds to us now...

Just speculation...

there is so much going on with bitcoin no one really can predict anything at this point .... but only time will tell. there are chances of success but  there are chances that it can crash too but those chances are still small as bitcoin is being adopted by more n more people globally.

not trolling,we can bet,but 21mln will be mined whan,in 2030,2040,and than what,who will keep blockchain

positive vs diffrent
positve outlook for price  rise,only for price rise,After legislation,whatfinally will come in both Europe and USA,read Digital Chamber,chinise will add legislations also,china business will accept btc,alibaba etc,price jump,only price

diffrent negative,if to send size bigger than 1 mb  transaction fees will increase,mor and more hard mining,lot of electricity,biggest mining companys are close  to shut down,finally only Chinise will stay
most of btc is  owned by limited number of people

Blockchain stress test failed,aftersixyearsi nlyread,it could be,could be,could be will be in future
now 40 % of merchant stop to accept btc
BTC did his work,on that newdevelopments willappear and finally btcwill be not cryptore servecurrency

and than who will mine,and keep btc alive
Why,go try to mine btc,than comeback and answer why

All people talk only about price,but price is related to value

English please, pab. If you want to speak another language, there are sections in this forum for other languages.

what english are you talking about? its written in english..

If we were to have 21 million bitcoin users, the prices will surely sky rocket, but I think that just means we begin trading more in Satoshis than using bitcoins as a regular trading unit.
I really look forward to such a day :)

Wild Guess: 10k$ per btc when the users reach 21 million.

There are many abolished paper currencies, they all have limited number, but only worth something in the eyes of currency collectors. If a currency is not in circulation, then its demand and value will be very limited

Vow, I'm proud to be one of this 21 millions.

Most actual bitcoin users today can say that they own at least one bitcoin.
If we have 21 million users that can no longer be said. Several people own more than one bitcoin and there are lost coins.
21 million users should push the price well over $10,000 IMO. The fear of missing out will mutate into crazed hoarding. Many will refuse to sell, pushing prices/value even higher.  

if the number of users grow that much we can think of much higher prices

totally not true. Most bitcoiners own less than a bitcoin even now.

Hmm... it would be nice to be able to get some facts on this.
I think most bitcoiners would have at least 1 BTC, especially with 1 BTC being less than $300. Set aside some money every month, soon you would have a bitcoin.
You think most bitcoiners have less than 1.
I guess that will lead a debate to, who counts a bitcoiner? If someone only has a few bits they received on changetip, but they don't advocate or continue to accumulate, are they really a "bitcoiner"?

Then all the bitcointalk members will be rich like Bill Gates.
I am dreaming of that day to come.  ;D

Now upto 25 millions already?

No, because a large percentage will sell off at $1k, then $5K, then $10K etc.   Early adopters will become early sellers, there will only be a select few that will have the gonads and patience to hold even when the price skyrockets.

i agree, a lot of people would sell on the first sight of price rise

Uhhh wat?

Well I'll not be one of those selling early.
I'll just earn and hold them.

probably much less than 1, i would say from 500 the selling pressure will increase a lot, and will be exponential from 1k, which is a good thing, less weak hands more strong price

Wrong. Faulty generalization is not a indicator or what is going to happen. People seriously need to rethink why they are involved with Bitcoin. Essentially what should be done once the price takes off (which will probably be followed by adoption) is to spend Bitcoin itself. That's what it was designed for.
People need to stop being greedy and converting. If I ever plan on buying X, I will buy it using Bitcoin.

Possibly, but I doubt that there will be much pressure at $500. If you remember the huge amount of threads of people complaining that they are at a loss (when the price started to go down). I'm expecting selling pressure to exponentially increase above $1k. However, that price point again might be a indicator and we might take off even further.

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OP there will never be enough Bitcoins for 21 million people to own 1. You do have to factor in the estimated 1M that satoshi has, and various losses over time.

Update: Some corrections.

A large portion of this forum is blindly beliving that the 21 000 000 cap is going to make everybody want to use bitcoins. It has no effect on the mainstream user if there is a cap or not. The physiological effect of owning a bitcoin today wont have any effect on the masses. Not more than having a rare stamp is affecting the masses as it is only other stamp collectors who cares.

The things that make a good currency has nothing to do with how many or what medium they are in. What matters is as follows. Are it trustet so you can buy stuff, can you earn it doing normal jobs, are everyone else around you using it and finally is it legal so you dont risk anything by using it. 99.9% of the worlds population has no desire to use a currency just because of it anonymity. They want something usefull.

If people wanted a currency with limited supply there are a lot of options and many are easier to adapt than bitcoins who are being hoarded by geeks and other oddballs. Either they adopt a crypto who is spread evenly so everyone could get in on it or they could go for low inflation systems. Low inflation has been tested in Japan, and the sharia laws forbid interest on loans....

I don't think you will see people using Bitcoin anywhere soon... too few shops where to spend it.
Maybe in the USA things go well, maybe in Norway or UK you can actually use Bitcoin often, but in the rest of the world you can't use it for everyday shopping, not even if you really want.
But this is a side consideration.
The main consideration is that who came into Bitcoin so early, forcefully knows or thinks its price is destined to grow A LOT.
This makes spending of Bitcoin quite naive if you ask me, and the less you have, the more naive you are if you spend it.
I agree though that SOMEBODY should spend them, because shops must see use of it, if we want Bitcoin to be implemented.
But I think it's still early and most of all I think that the people spending Bitcoin should be the ones that have most of them, rich people and such, while people with 5 BTC or less should hold onto them and only begin to spend when mainstream adoption will approach.

But once again, I didn't mean how much will the 21 millionth bitcoin cost.
I asked what will the 21 millionth BITCOIN USER WANNABE PAY for 1 BTC (even if he buys only a fraction of it, as it will much probably be).
Maybe a more clear way to pose the question is: how much will 1 BTC cost when the number of Bitcoin users will hit 21 million?

About "the things that make a good currency"... I won't enter into that matter, as there's another thread to be opened if one wants to discuss such a large topic, but the fact that the number of Bitcoins is limited to 21 millions IS actually a factor to increase its value over time. I hope I don't have to explain you why.

But who guarantees you that people will be selling when we get to their price points where they got in, e.g. $500, $1000 etc. I mean in my opinion, most of those who wanted out have gotten out and took a loss already. When Bitcoin hits $500 again, I would be excited that it recovered and would be looking how high can it go over $500 to try and lock some profits and wouldn't be looking to get out and be even.

I don't know, this is me, I don't know are the others thinking like that as well, but I am.

Cheers!

I believe it ! But when it touch $160K then I will not alive  ???

Why?
Do you think you won't be alive in 10-15 years? If adoption at one point takes place in exponential growth the same will happen to Bitcoin's price. If Bitcoin will be successful I believe in 10-15 years there will be at least 100 million people using it. This will mean that we are not talking about Bitcoin anymore. We will be talking about bits.

That does apply to local shops. Anyone buying things online can easily find a lot of places to spend their Bitcoin. As I've stated numerous times, more and more places are accepting Bitcoin. One can't expect everyone to accept it within a few years. Besides, if you look at how much revenue Bitcoin created for Overstock it is a clear indication that people are willing to spend Bitcoin.
I guess there is a concentration of greedy people in this very forum.

Nobody guarantees anything. I was talking about selling pressure, I wasn't saying that people are actually going to sell out. There's a difference. If you've been active on the forum a lot, you could clearly see the indicators that many want to sell for the sake of profiting. This is why there are so many people obsessed (having healthy discussions about the price is a rarity) with the price in the speculation section.
Your opinion is not based on evidence, thus making that statement irrelevant (most). We'd need to somehow get actual numbers to confirm (quite impossible).

I think there's a difference between "greedy" and "somebody that is trying to earn something".
I only have less than 1 BTC and I am without a job. Would you call that greed?

I would call that irrelevant. You essentially earn money when the price of Bitcoin rises. Converting to fiat is not necessary. With the value of your investment now increased (assuming Bitcoin price sees a uptrend) you can actually spend it to get more stuff that before.
I for one, do not have any plans to convert. I rather have plans to buy things. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that nobody should convert in any case.

Greed is usually very obvious (view the speculation section). Anyhow, this might already be a bit off topic.

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Update:
I never said that specifically you were greedy. You must have misunderstood something.

Exactly, and thus there is no real influence on the price.

Might be off topic, but I don't like to be called greedy when I own nearly nothing  ::)

https://www.google.it/search?q=greedy&oq=greedy&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.1079j1j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=93&ie=UTF-8

I think that is something you have in common with most of the forum...

well greedy aren't only those that own many coins, but are also those that are here for the money only and not for the technology, if you're here for necessity you might be in between, i mean no one can guarantee that when you will be wealthy again you will not want to earn more...

The 21 million cap is an agreement. Bitcoiners believe that if everyone voluntarily use a money that have hard limit in supply, they can protect themselves from inflation and make this money most trustworthy and valuable on the planet

The question is, how many people purchase bitcoin because of its long term anti-inflation property? In a period of hyperinflation, bitcoin adoption will gain traction quickly, but currently not so much

Regarding the early adopter problem, every useful and scarce resource have this limitation: Early adopters sitting on their land, gold, oil field, forest, etc... and watching their assets rise in value, while the latest adopters can barely purchase a little with their petty income. People could also start to collect any scarce resources that no one have noticed, but that does not guarantee they will become useful. Bitcoin has real utility in certain area, that gives it value, but not so many people really realize the benefit until they start to use it. Speculation does not increase its value, increase the real usage is the key. Imagine that you can always spend bitcoin when you are traveling abroad, what kind of convenience that will be

Your definition of "greedy" needs a little work. People don't somehow turn greedy when they convert bitcoins to fiat, but not so if they keep it in bitcoins.

It's really quite simple. At the current time, fiat is accepted at a lot more places, and much more usable than bitcoin in most of the world. I can go outside and buy a pizza anywhere I want, but if I had to use bitcoin, i would be limited to very few choices, and maybe those places simply don't make good pizza.

So that's why I will use fiat when I make purchases. If in the future bitcoin becomes extremely mainstream and accepted virtually anywhere, at that time there is no need to convert to fiat except to spread out the risk. But converting/not converting has nothing to do with greed. The only real reason to buy bitcoins now is in anticipation of a rise in value. It's not about converting to fiat, it's about having higher purchasing power, and comparing it to USD is the simplest way to evaluate the purchasing power.

there are more reasons:

bitcoin is good for you:

-if you dont like banks
-if you dont like fiat money
-if you dont like debt
-if you want control over your money
-if you like tech
-if you are a geek
-if you want to be a part of a movement

if we come back to guesses i think that the price will be about 5 thousand dollars each, also there will surely be much more countries who will accept it as a national currency

I wrote a post about this one day: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=998854.0 . One day I started a blog and turned it into a post on it:

http://www.unsignedtx.com/available-bitcoin-user-ratio/

In the case of hyperinflation everyone would look for anything to buy that hold value but who would sell their bitcoin for a hyperinflating fiat? As i see it there is no way to get the general public interested in bitcoin as long as the fiat they hold is good and no way to get bitcoin if their fiat is bad.

So how do you get this mass adaption of bitcoin?

Not by merchant who only take bitcoin and convert it to fiat right away.

Not by bitcoin holders who use debit cards to shop where the merchants never see bitcoin.

Not by the hodlers who only thinks someone else is going to make their bitcoins valuable.

Not by the traders who make the price go wild all the time.

Then we are down to faucet and porn. Not the greatest base for new and revolutionary economy is it?

But everything grants me that people with many BTC over here and not spending them are more greedy than me, whatever motivations you want to put in.
So please stop this useless polemics. You can't say poor people are greedy when they try to have decent life.
From decent life up, you may call greedy, below, not. And that's it. BY DEFINITION as the link clearly shows.

Reading :)

 Hi your 5 cents nightmere back
Look a general valuation guide posted on Reddit.Due that guide btc price is accurate,take a read ,maybe it will help some of you to estimate btc  price,maybe some altcoins also

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/comments/3f3pey/a_general_valuation_guide/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/comments/3f3pey/a_general_valuation_guide/)

I will come back after 40 days,and will post you link to newcoming great innovation in digital currencys,99% will like to try thatsystem,becouse weall want to make money and have better life
If anybody want to review  that sooner  pm me
Reagards
P

Of course it does, luckily I'm one of the few willing to admit such things. Actually LiteCoinGuy pretty much made your point irrelevant.

Okay then let us see. This is something that I've been trying to tell people when they spam nonsense and obsess with speculating. The price of Bitcoin does not matter, Bitcoin will work, be it at $300, be it at $3.
Basically one of the fundamental ideas of Bitcoin was to enable you to get out of the current system (money and state separation). Aside from paying bills (utilities, power, water, etc.) it is pretty much possible.
If you are really into Bitcoin, you would not be caring about any limitations and would be patient. Besides, you do not have to use it for small things such as coffee, pizza, etc. now. You can pretty much buy anything online using Bitcoin in 2015.
Another thing is that, you could talk to the manager/owner of the place that you like and suggest them to start accepting Bitcoin. The place has nothing to lose if they use Bitpay.

if the number of users increase it means the increase in demand which will result in price increase and also when the bitcoin per person becomes low (21 mil bitcoin and 21 mil person using) then it becomes more valuable than what it normally would be

Uh, no it doesn't. My point was that your way of defining greedy doesn't make sense. It has nothing to do with what LCG is saying.

That said, to imply that any of those reasons above is more "noble" or "righteous" or in any other way "better" than hoping to invest in bitcoin for a financial gain is completely silly. So what if we want a financial gain? What is wrong with that?

There are many people in the world who are not well off financially. They need all the money they can get, to LIVE. They can't afford luxury items like a new laptop every 6 months (or even every 3 years). There is very little they can afford after food, shelter and clothing. So what can they buy with bitcoins? Basically nothing.

Is it wrong then, for these people to want to improve their financial situation by making a bet on bitcoin increasing its price?

Also, we live in the real world, not a theoretical one. Bitcoin will NOT WORK at $3, because by that time very few people will accept it.


Anyway, there is absolutely nothing wrong with speculating about bitcoin. Without speculators, bitcoin will die, period. The number of true believers of bitcoin as a currency AND hates fiat/banks etc is not that many.