Bitcoin Forum

Our planet has approximately 7 billion people on it.  Let's ignore the problems of population growth for the moment and assume we will always have 7 billion people.   
 
Now let's also assume that starting this very second, all those people (our global population of seven billion) each begins to click the button to generate a new bitcoin address every second. 
 
"WHY ARE YOU GENERATING SO MANY FUCKING ADDRESSES!  You're going to cause a bitcoin address collision!" yells the supreme bitcoin chancellor of Earth.  "STOP IT!"  ಠ_ಠ
 
Let's pretend everyone's in on the joke, and they all ignore him. 
    ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
  

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With every human on Earth, all generating a new address every second it would still take about 6.5 billion years in order for there to be a 50/50 chance of a bitcoin address collision.  For there to be approximately a 99% chance of a collision, the assholes would need to keep up this buffonery for about 11.7 billion years total. 
 
Looking ahead to what scientists think will be the timeline of our planet: 
  

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• 500–600 million:  Estimated time until a gamma ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's ozone layer and potentially trigger a mass extinction.
• 800 million:  Carbon dioxide levels fall to the point at which C4 photosynthesis is no longer possible.  Free oxygen and ozone disappear from the atmosphere. Multicellular life dies out.
• 1 billion: The Sun's luminosity has increased by 10 percent, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of ~320 K (47 °C, 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans.
• 1.3 billion: Eukaryotic life dies out due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only prokaryotes remain.
• 2.3 billion: The Earth's outer core freezes, if the inner core continues to grow at its current rate of 1 mm per year.  Without its liquid outer core, the Earth's magnetic field shuts down, and charged particles emanating from the Sun gradually deplete the atmosphere.
• 2.8 billion:  Earth's surface temperature, even at the poles, reaches an average of ~420 K (147 °C, 296 °F). At this point life, now reduced to unicellular colonies in isolated, scattered microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes or subsurface caves, will completely die out.
• 3.5 billion:  Surface conditions on Earth are comparable to those on Venus today.
• 5 billion: With the hydrogen supply exhausted at its core, the Sun leaves the main sequence and begins to evolve into a red giant.
• 7.59 billion: The Earth and Moon are very likely destroyed by falling into the Sun, just before the Sun reaches the tip of its red giant phase and its maximum radius of 256 times the present day value.  Before the final collision, the Moon possibly spirals below Earth's Roche limit, breaking into a ring of debris, most of which falls to the Earth's surface

 
  
(Source: Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future)  

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Summary:  I'm pretty sure there will never be a bitcoin address collision.  My math might not be perfect, but it shouldn't be off by more than an order of magnitude.  You are welcome to fact check me and I'll correct it if necessary.

Never happen.  The world governments are spending their resources blowing each other up, not on space exploration.  Maybe if another alien species, like the body snatchers or something were to take over and keep the block chain going, then we might have a chance for a collision.

I get slightly different numbers.  

24*365*3600*7*150*1,000,000*((1,000,000,000)^4)=

3.311 * 10^52,

whereas 2^160 = 1.46 * 10^48.

so instead of it taking 150 billion years, it would take more like 150 million years.  but who's counting? :D

 
  
I took a second look and the math was pretty FUBAR the first time.  Thanks.  I limited them to only generating one new addresses a second to keep everything else working right.   ;)

No one ignores the supreme universal bitcoin chancellor!  >:(

 
  
https://i.imgur.com/WmRCtmI.jpg  
NOW YOU WILL FEEL THE WRATH OF DICK BLOCKCHENEY

Well if you are blockchain.info's android wallet with their screwed up RNG from a few months back, then you are going to generate a collision pretty much guaranteed for every single address generated.  ;D

there is a way to know if a collision happened, i mean blockchain will tell you that? because otherwise the one who will generate it, because of heavy luck, will not say a word about it, and no one will know if a collision has occured or not...

In a normal circumstances it's safe to say that bitcoin address collision will never happen. The only way for it to be a reality is if in some
point in time some kind of vulnerability gets discovered, allowing address generation not to be as random as it is supposed to be.

cheers

When I start to think about this, I also consider this video ---> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZloHVKk7DHk

He explains it so clearly, you could not even consider it as a risk factor.... The wonderful world of math and Bitcoin, makes this a mission impossible.

So on the OP's list, you have a better chance of dying from a catastrophic event, than loosing your Bitcoins. Now that is more scary... :o 

you don't gamble very much do you? It's possible to have a collision in the next minute.

You mean; "than to gain someone elses bitcoins.." but anyways, loosing bitcoins is way more probable due to uninformed people
getting hacked or scammed, than it is to loosing them from address collision, and this is where the attention should be pointed.

cheers

You don't like mathematics do you? There is a huge difference between possible and probable. While a collision is possible at the moment it is highly unlikely.
Even if we are going to see the first collision in 500 years, it doesn't matter. Nobody can honestly expect any money system to last that long. Even if Bitcoin becomes widely adopted, eventually it will be replaced by something better (just as Bitcoin is replacing current systems) or it will have to be extensively upgraded.

Well if you get lucky you would notice an added balance to your wallet. Otherwise you can manually check the first time the addresses has been seen in the blockchain. I do not think that others can know if you've generated a existing address though. Only the person(s) involved would know at first.

There is still a very small chance this could happen tomorrow. The same chances as getting annilhated from a black hole I think, but still not impossible.

so there are chances(yeah very slim and all, i know), that it has happened already and no one know about it, if there aren't ways to know about it, maybe for a small amount, for a big one someone might have created a thread already...

While an address collision is so unlikely that it can be considered, for all practical purposes, impossible...

An address collision is also meaningless unless there are actually bitcoins associated with the address.

Since there can't be more than *2,099,725,475,406,004 (approximately 2.1 X 10¹⁵) addresses at any moment in time that simultaneously have any unspent outputs associated with them, please recalculate your odds taking into consideration the chance of a meaningful collision occurring.


* See https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply  and   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=675321.msg7647669#msg7647669

It'll take a very long time even all of us generates a new address every one transaction because bitcoin address have very many combination. Maybe when we achieve it, bitcoin isn't popular anymore or maybe we have died.

Exactly. It is not something that is impossible, it is just very improbable (unlikely). I do not think that the system has a means of figuring out if someone generated a collision. So, unless someone comes out publicly stating that he/she generated a collision, we might never know.
Also, OP forgot to consider what Danny suggested. If a collision happens with a unused/dead/empty address then it is really pointless. The chance to generated a meaningful collision should be much smaller.

What would happen if this actually happened? Like what would the consequences be of an address being generated as new, actually being one with a previous history and record? what would happen if you did a transaction? would the funds of said address suddendly pop on your wallet? weird stuff to think about, its almost like a glitch in the matrix.

Very interesting.
And I suppose this makes 99.9999999999999999% of transactions safe.

But... there's a butt.

I was thinking to post a thread regarding this exact matter MINUTES AGO.
If I didn't consult the forum right now, I would have posted it.
How many chances are those, that somebody opens a thread answering my question before I post it?

You could just answer him: KEEP BETTIN!  :D :D :D

The randomnes of things make everything possible without caring the slightest about the math.

People play lotto with realy bad odds of winning but there are winners all the time. Some people even win several times when the odds says that only happens if you play for millions of years. If you belive more in math than in randomnes you should play martingale. What is the odds of red popping up yet another time...

50%

Math is the reason that you should NOT waste your time or money on a "Martingale System".

Fortunately lifetime of bitcoin won't that be long and we will have upgraded version of core protocol. Entirely new future coin with insane possibilities and features or/or other payment method.
If you think bitcoin will be alive and kicking in its current state year 2030+ you are either too optimistic or misinformed.

I'm afraid this would never happen.

 
 
Yeah, but there's already been a lot of reds.  Clearly you don't understand probability.  Eventually there has to be a black, and since there's been so many reds it's very unlikely it will continue to be red. 
 
So the chances are *way* less than 50%.  Black is a sure bet.

The game doesn't have a memory.  It doesn't matter if there have just been 35 blacks in a row, 35 reds in a row, or any other combination. If we are talking about a properly balanced roulette wheel with no cheating influences and only an equal number of red and black results, then the chance that the next result will be red is exactly 50%.


Yes. I do.

You, however, appear to be experiencing a common misunderstanding of the Law of large numbers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers) known as the Gambler's fallacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy).



While it is very likely that black will eventually occur, the odds that it will occur in the next trial are only 50%.


This is completely false.  It is exactly as likely that it will continue to be red as it is that it will continue to be black.


No, they aren't.


It is not.

(while the odds do not change over time, and do not change as specific patterns occur, the odds DO change as other colors (such as green) are added to the possible result set.)

The chances of RED coming up on a fair table, no Green Zero or double zero etc.., are ALWAYS 50%. Even if there have been 1 million reds in a row before it.

As for the 'Deep-Time' stuff in the OP.. Way Cool..  ;D

Past observations do not affect future outcomes when it comes to randomness.  If this were true casinos wouldn't have roulette.  The odds red or black for double zero roulette btw are 47.37%.  You will eventually lose your money and that's why Las Vegas casinos are so big.  The only three ways mathematically to win (I know for sure) are positive expectation video poker, cheating (counting cards) at black jack, and being good at poker, in a casino.  I personally made a lot of money at poker and video poker back when it was more profitable.  I know people who make 60k+ a year playing black jack but, it seems very stressful to me.

There is a right and a wrong way. Using free money they give you as a new member on a site is right. Using your own money is wrong.

Got 3 euros on a site and turned it into 1100 euros. Redrawing that and never going back to that site felt good...

Had poker as my only income for a year. Not easy money since i used a lot more time on poker than i would at a real job. Gave it up and only play for fun now.

I have had the same colour coming up 13 times in a row. Start with $1 and double it 13 times and you know why so many say you should never try martingale. Black will come eventually but you can go broke while you wait.

Surprising fantasy. Deign to the mos famous fictions books and if the author will try to develop better and in depth the situation it will be for sure born a very successful and popular scenario which will be asked from the hollywoodian director Steven Spielberg.

I encourage americanpegasus to think seriously about this because it will be even a very good publicity for the bitcoin too.  :D

I'm pretty sure americanpegasus is just trolling you, danny. I would think that he understands basic gambler's fallacy.

because the probability work better on the long terms like with poker, i mean it's more true the more you play, and not immediately, also it is obvious that if many play one of them must win

and until now nothing that was said to have a probability of million years, has happened ever, so your logic is flawed

What logic? I talk about random things happening whenever you dont expect it. Like winning lotto twice. Like OP just wanting to post something and someone else just do it. Like a meteor falling down and whiping out everything bigger than a rat.

Happens all the time and no logic is involved.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/487101-its-strange-enough-these-people-won-the-lottery-twice-but-the-coincidences-dont-end-there/

It would make sense that strange things happen once in a while.  Statistically, I think you are much more likely to win the lottery twice than to be able to bruteforce a private key.

Yes, bruteforcing is probably a waste of time for you and your realitives for a long time. Randomly hiting a used adress can happen. http://www.palkeo.com/code/stealing-bitcoin.html (http://www.palkeo.com/code/stealing-bitcoin.html)

No idea if he tells the truth or not.

randomly hitting a "very small number" doesn't count because no one should be using small numbers.  Its just like that other thread where someone lost 50 BTC
with a BLANK passphrase.  Would you call that "randomly hitting a used address?".  No, its clearly a user error.

It is a user error to use a stupid private key. If we include a lot more people in to this tech heavy world there would be a lot more idiots with bitcoin. A lot of idiots with easy catchphrases like password, 1234567890 and so on.

One of the computer giants uses 123456789012345678901234567890 as their backdoor on all the software they produce and have used it for years. Not telling who since i had to work hard to get it. If real computer geeks cant make solid passwords how could idiots do it. The people who need to write down the 4 digit code to their credit card and keep it in the wallet right next to the card...