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Title: Correlating with Search Trends Post by: nrd525 on June 03, 2011, 01:25:33 AM Has anyone tried to correlate bitcoin/usd price with search trends?
Google has some neat search trends on "Google Insights for Search". http://www.google.com/insights/search/ (if it lets me post a url) My guess is that a lot of demand is fueled by fame. I only found out about bitcoin a week ago via slashdot. Looking at May 21-24, there was a small lull in Google Search activity for the keyword "bitcoin", but bitcoin price went up all these four days. It is possible that there is a time lag. Title: Re: Correlating with Search Trends Post by: Bazil on June 03, 2011, 01:43:19 AM Looking at May 21-24, there was a small lull in Google Search activity for the keyword "bitcoin", but bitcoin price went up all these four days. It is possible that there is a time lag. Memorial day week end in the US, half the people interested were out barbecuing instead. Title: Re: Correlating with Search Trends Post by: nrd525 on June 03, 2011, 01:58:55 AM May 24 was the day before Memorial Weekend. May 21-23 was not.
Title: Re: Correlating with Search Trends Post by: Bazil on June 03, 2011, 02:00:38 AM May 24 was the day before Memorial Weekend. May 21-23 was not. People were thinking about/preparing what they were going to do for the weekend. Was a really slow work week for me, as I'm sure it was for a lot of people. Title: Re: Correlating with Search Trends Post by: nrd525 on June 05, 2011, 02:03:32 AM Let's see if I can post images:
http://www.campusactivism.org/images/bitcoin-month2.jpg Bitcoin price graph from MtGox. http://www.campusactivism.org/images/google-bitcoin2.jpg Google Search Trends for the past 30 days for "bitcoin". Title: Re: Correlating with Search Trends Post by: nrd525 on June 05, 2011, 02:15:11 AM http://www.campusactivism.org/images/bitcoin-year2.jpg
Bitcoin prices for the past year (MtGox, US dollars) http://www.campusactivism.org/images/google-bitcoin-year2.jpg Google searches for bitcoin past year. Title: Re: Correlating with Search Trends Post by: nrd525 on June 05, 2011, 02:19:21 AM It isn't perfect. But I'm seeing strong correlation.
This correlation would improve if you averaged the google searches over a week (typically google searches drop 20-30% over the weekend), or several days. There might be a very small delayed effect between searches and conversions into bitcoin buyers (ex 1 day). Or maybe there might be no delay at all for buying the coins (and a much larger delay for mining - especially on a major scale if you have to buy a gpu). |
