Bitcoin Forum

Does anyone actually believe Satoshi and their odds? I do believe the game is completely rigged. I had a great run up 70btc in 2 days. Then lost it all while betting only 91% chance to win games. Im new to this stuff but what are your thoughts?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.0

You just described the very notion of gambling.  They have no reason to rig the game.  You said you were betting only 91% chance to win.  That means you had a 9% chance to lose.  9% isn't 0%.  

I don't think it is purposely rigged but I have noticed that there are lucky periods and unlucky periods. I don't know if it is still true, but it seems that if you play 5 times per transaction and the first bet wins, they all win.

The math on SatoshiDICE is absolutely fair and transparent. The whole point is that if you don't trust the site, you can check it using the hashes of the transactions (it's a bit complicated to do this but many have done it).

Not only is SatoshiDICE fair, it is -provably- fair, and is one of the first online games in the world to be able to prove its fairness (one more awesome benefit of Bitcoin).

Im not talking about 1 bet at 91% chance im talking multiple bets over the course of a day and eventually losing all your money. Thats statistically improbable yet it happens all the time. I especialy love when i do a big bet with the less than 60 000# and the I lose because the number that come out is 60 008. You cant possibly think that its random lol

Yes I do.  

Im not following. How can you prove that the numbers generated are actually random just from hashes?

Why not play the 97% chance to win constantly and become a millionaire then?

It doesn't work that way.  You have a 97% chance to win a single bet, but look at how low your percentage of payout is.  This still gives the house an edge.  You will ultimately lose doing this.  

Example:  How many times do you expect to win out of 100 on this bet?  97.  You expect to lose 3 times.  This will give the house a profit of about 2% and you a loss of about 2% due to the payout structure of the 97% bet.  

"satoshi dice lol" indeed... I laughed!

Why is noone doing extremly large bets on that odd once then? a 07% chance to win is extremely high probability in any case. The anser is because they know when they do the big bet that the number 65000 will come out. Like usual.

Some people do.  And most people win that single bet. 

Not sure if OP is a big troll or just a 6 year old kid that doesn't yet understand the math...

If I'm not mistaken satoshidice uses mental poker (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mental_poker) strategies. Study up.

I guess im that unlucky guy that loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance to win game the day after winning large sums in the same game.

Level of hiding behind "questions" while not having the balls to file an official scam accusation: ryann.

Also, you might have a gambling problem.

Because on that 3% chance that they do lose, they lose everything.  Some people don't want to take that sort of chance.

Try it this way:
- Create a new Excel document.
- In A2, type "=RANDBETWEEN(0,65536)"
- In B1, type "1000", or whatever starting Bitcoin balance you want to simulate.
- In B2, type "=IF(A2<64000,B1*1.004,0)"
- Now, copy A2 and B2 downward as far as you want, to simulate as many bets as you want.
- To refresh with a new set of random numbers, just click on an empty cell, and push the Delete key on your keyboard.
- You will soon find out why no one does extremely large bets on that odd.

They do call it luck for a reason...

If you in deed lost 25 times in a roll on the 91% chance bet, then I agree, that's pretty improbable (though still possible). Please show me proof that it happened.

How can I show the proof? IS there somewhere I can look up the records??

Guess not

Post your transaction ID's.

Wow impatient much?

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx= (http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=)

^^^ that lets you lookup the status of a transaction. You can click the details link and all the info is there to verify that the roll was pre-determined legitimate but you have to understand some of the hash stuff to do that.

In other words, it's impossible for the system to cheat people, because people could check bets after they were made and discover the cheating.

Random is a conspiracy. Wake up sheeple !

Cry more because you didn't quit while you were ahead. Really, cry more. It'll help. I promise. Fucktard.

I doubt it.  Nobody loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance bet.  The odds against it happening are massive.

That's exactly what someone trying martingale strategy would say, it might be what actually happened here.

I watched black hit 16 times in a row on roulette.  I said, "Well just f me in the a!"   :D

Rare?  Sure.  Chances are something like (ignoring 0 green) 0.001525%.  But does it happen?  Yep.  .001525% is not 0%. 

There's a difference between 16 50% chance events happening and 25 9% chance events happening.  .001525% is not 0%, but 0.0000000000000000000000001472% is pretty much 0% - and that's the percentage chance of losing 25 "lessthan 60000" bets in a row.  ie. it didn't happen.

All your luck is belong to ME >:)

Well no...OP didn't understand the math and was obviously exaggerating.  Even the lowest on the IQ totem pole would have surely quit after that 24th loss lol

Always set a betting limit of how much you're willing to lose.

Have you read how it works? read it again, and try harder to comprehend

When you had your "great run" that defied the odds, you weren't complaining then. My advice is to stop gambling.

The house always wins?  ;D

This is what makes me lol

Did you place all the best from the same bitcoin address?  Because if so, post that address and we will eventually show you proof of where you went wrong.  It seems likely to me that you didn't lose 25 times in a row, but you slowly but surely achieved the 98.1% return over and over again until you hit zero.  The 98.1% return means if you play long enough, you can expect to end up with 98.1% of what you started with, and that usually takes only a few bets, and at 91% odds, I estimate several wins and then a loss or two to get there.  Your transaction IDs will be interesting to study.

This has to be the most obvious place not to gamble at, because they put the odds right in front of your face. I did 4-5 bets then quit because the payouts were so low for the amount of risk.


Just think, the amount of coins you'll have to risk to amount to that of the amount of coins you'll lose would take foreverrrr playing safe. AND just take one loss will automatically screw you over, so playing the lesser odds is actually worse in the long run because even though it's 3% you'll risk 300BTC every time to get $13 (or something like that). So you'd have to play a couple hundred times to amount to the money you'd lose during that time. So I'm pretty sure that means you have a 6% chance at losing your 300BTC before you make that amount of money back that you'd lose.

Odds are right in front of your face though, it's better to play games like Blackjack where you at least have a tiny bit of say in what the outcome is. All gambling is, is the house vs. you, and in the end the house always wins no matter what, or else they wouldn't be in business.

1.9% is far lower than most blackjack, roulette, lotto, etc games.

Since this seems to be the thread to post in for people who can't math, I have a question as well: Would it be possible to win eventually if you just keep tripling your bet every time you lose or would the amount required be larger than the maximum bet allowed eventually (which I think the upper end is at 500Ƀ)?

Bets (at 50%)
1) 1Ƀ - Lose
2) 3Ƀ - Lose
3) 9Ƀ - Lose
4) 27Ƀ - Win (40Ƀ spent, 52Ƀ won, 12Ƀ profit) Lose
5) 81Ƀ - Lose
6) 243Ƀ - Lose

Fake edit: I answered my own question. If it took more than 6 tries, you wouldn't be able to break even much less profit due to the max bet allowed.

So you just need to start at 0.10 instead of 1, right?  Then what could possibly go wrong...

The system you just discovered is called the Martingale System (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)) and doesn't work, long term, for the reason you also discovered.  :)

But he left his post here anyway.  That's kind of a lack of ego, which I think is awesome.

Awesome yeah, but I don't think anyone could claim Matt has a lack of ego...