Bitcoin Forum

Why are we in the middle of a massive sell-off?

why not?

Good question. There are no bad news to blame it on. Blaming it on a "natural correction" doesn't really explain everything either, it's crashing in a too textbook way. I hate to say it and I don't necessarily believe it's true, but there could be manipulation. The way the sell offs are triggered and the induced panic selling which is increasing... this could be an orchestrated crash. Easily. It doesn't feel like a real crash but it looks like one.

Also it could be an insider crash, someone knows some really bad news is going to hit Bitcoin soon and wants to do this in advance.

Or bitcoins just are still too highly valued at double digits and it is just a natural correction. It could be anything, really. Hard to say. :)

Because I just bought some coinses, good thing the bit-man doesn't know I'm about to buy some more or the price would be going through the roof... drat shouldn't have said that! lol

No bad news??? There re so much talks about asics, cant see another reason.
For GPU miners, indeed this is bad news.

I'd like to add that the big ask walls that seem to follow the crashing price are a major indicator for a manipulative crash.

I dont see a valid argument, why prices should fall due to ASICs, when the earliest announced shipment is still sometime in December (or am I not up tp date?)

I also dont see any satisfying argument, that justifies the current crash. In that situation any BIG news could push the price the other way in this volatile situation. Stay tuned!

Also, it DOES look alot like a textbook crash, pretty strange. Almost too smooth. Anyway, Im waiting for the dead cat bounce.

Because bitcoin economy is relatively small, and prone to manipulation by few big players. Like it or not, bitcoin is an easy target for pump-and-dump.

Agreed, but it's not as volatile as it used to be. LTC, on the other hand... ;D

because price of bitcoin is ridiculously over priced for what it is and does.
most owners are speculators and finding the bigger fool is getting tough right now.

pretty simple really.

bitinstant is down.
bitme is down
...

Are some of the Bitfloor stolen coins moving now?  They seem to be from what I can tell.

That's just not right. Sellers are just a small minority, the scenario you are summoning up would be much more severe.

My explanation: See my Avatar Text.
People have waited for an opportunity to get out out of disappointment over various schemes which took place this year, there is a limited number of these fellas and they probably don't even have that much BTC to sell. (Because they lost so much already)

btc-e too, seems under DDOS.
May be orchestrated.

pirateat40i'mgay is selling.

Dang, I need to get my mtgox acct set up. I'm gonna get me some bitcoins.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzl5t1Sracc&t=0m32s (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzl5t1Sracc&t=0m32s)

Perhaps ASIC companies are now ready to place their orders with manufacturers and are thus selling BTC to raise the necessary funds.

With the block reward getting cut and New Year's Eve right around the corner, I'm hesitant to sell now.  I still think we'll see an end of the year bubble.  I'll be looking to sell some on January 3rd.  I tend to trade with a plan, rather than react to market gyrations.  Time will tell if this line of thinking makes or loses me several thousand dollars.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=120706.0

That is possible to, BFL said they just payed a "bullet run", maybe they need extra money very fast.

im saying maybe clispe getting his hacked coins into cash. Maybe we should ask mtgox if it is any of these ppl that they lock there accounts.

I don't have a clue. Suprises the hell out of me.

Funny idea: bfl upgrades can't be payed in bitcoin... fiat only ;)

BFL is not that retarded to hold onto BTC for pre-orders.

Who knows?
Also this sellof might give them the excuse they needed...

BFL is retarded :D

It's actually bit-pay which takes care of that kind of business and the merchant just receives the hard $. There's an option with bit-pay to get paid in btc but I doubt that butterfly labs does that.

Lol, there is no reason. Just some people are feared and so they sold. We are oversold. Even this kind of movements ends at some time.

Definitely, Cheap bitcoins! There is strong evidence that this is last chance before halving. Look at RSI. I hnow it is just a friday. But we are getting near end.

Bitcoin is strong idea. It will sustain.

BTC was trading around $6 when BFL started accepting pre-orders.  Are you insinuating that BFL would have to have been retarded to accept bitcoins at $6 and then start selling them at $12?  I think maybe retarded doesn't mean what you think it means.

We have no bitinstant debit card in the news. A preloadable debit card is bitcoin's only hope for any introduction into mainstream usage, while too many members of this forum make a big deal over something as silly as bitcoin taxi payments or vending machines.

Bitcoin price is inflated by irrational, Atlas-esque bulls who think bitcoin will succeed by proselytizing its merits to the masses. The notion that bitcoin will grow by getting our collective relatives' small businesses to all accept bitcoin is as delusional as canvassing for a presidential 3rd party.

We need to piggyback bitcoin's decentralized characteristics onto the popularity of a mainstream currency, thus acting as a medium between "real" currencies, so to speak. Only once this niche role is established can bitcoin hope to make the next leap as a self supporting currency. The Bitcoin Foundation and the pre-loadable debit card have been the only significant bitcoin news as of late, the rest is all noise.

How will another bitcoin-accepting small business with ZERO bitcoin transactions help bitcoin?
How will ASIC's that do nothing but further secure an already impenetrable network help bitcoin?
How will planting proselytizing media stories that reach only libertarians and techies help bitcoin?

OK Inigo.

I mean that they had every reason to cash them out. #1: Manufacturing funds. #2 Fluctuating Market.

OMG! bitinstant back up!!

Everyone run!

Meh, I can remember when the web was a bunch of text with no images. Bitcoin is (in my opinion) pretty much inevitable now. There may be some false starts and some missteps but I don't think there's much need for anyone to be running around pushing things, just take advantages of opportunities as they occur and it will grow by itself. If it needed to be forced, it *deserves* to fail.

+1. Just reread rick falkvinge "four drivers of bitcoin" or something similar, sit back and enjoy. (also: don't sell too much)

I'm not saying that anything should be forced, only that those innovative energies of the bitcoin community should be focused on that which is most essential. Promoting bitcoin in its present form as a currency is, in my opinion, a complete waste of time. If we intend to grow the bitcoin economy, we need greater interactivity with the real economy, with innovations that promote seamless osmosis with those real currencies. Trying to defy and ignore the real economy with bitcoin-as-currency innovations like in-person phone payments is doomed to fail until there is a sufficient base of support and usage --- a foundation that can only be be brought about by promoting bitcoin as a protocol, as a tool for the dollar, euro, etc.

Two example innovations I can think of that fit this bill would be:

1. Pre-loadable debit card that holds value in bitcoins until sale is made, at which point an instant dollar/euro conversion is made.
2. Micropayment protocol that enables users to tip content with bitcoins in a format easier than copy-paste lengthy alphanumeric address.

Falkvinge's speech at last year's Bitcoin conference was stupendous.

As for not selling, I only sold a small quantity at GBP 6,90 to pay for a Mt Gox Yubikey, otherwise it's buy buy baby! Trouble is, I'm short of fiat right now so that's going to have to wait for a bit...

why do you think it's the middle? could be the end or the beginning...

Sell? I'm looking to buy.

there's so many possibly "reasons"... maybe they just all add up... add some panic and voilà: le plunge.

QFT

From my point of view there is not BTC market any more.
You can't invest bitcoins since there is no market, so the only way to make money is the dump and pump.

Ahh good fresh FUD, one of these days.

It's not fresh. You can see by yourself, that even if pirateat40 was a negative experience it dumped the price, because there was a lot of willing investors from outside of btc world. When it defaulted there were still OBSI, and GLBSE.
But now, seriously where may you invest your BTC's?
And why Nefario got so scared as to shut his site instead of selling it? I will not tell you what I think, as I don't need FUD (I'm on BTC side right now and am not going to sell, so personally I'd need the price to go up ;-))

I've grown quite fond of settling small everyday stuff (like when someone picked something up for me (or the other way around)) in bitcoin. Bitcoin already works for me in that regard and it's really useful. I don't see why this use case alone wouldn't be able to make bitcoin big at all, it just takes time. Just today I had 2 "bitcoin newbies" (they actually had fully synced bitcoin clients on their laptops with 0 transactions) buy bitcoins from me. So the userbase is growing and these dudes didn't even seem to me like they needed the stuff for silkroad. Neither were they hardcore libertarians or anti-establishment in any way, they just genuinely thought bitcoin was a cool idea and maybe they should get some.

Slowly moving towards critical mass without any hot-shot corporation pulling a humongeous biggie seems to be a viable path to me. Protecting ourselves well along the way against the various attacks and problems that will undoubtedly occur we should be fine in the end.

I'm still silently hoping for some kind of a big kaboom, but it's not necessary in my mind.

Falkvinges assumption of it taking 10 years from inception to widespread use might turn out to be correct.

Why do you insist on having to interface with that shoddy payment system credit cards resemble? The people behind that are our competition.
Why do you insist on having to interface with that shoddy debt-based fiat currency? The people behind that are our competition.

I don't wanna be a tool for the Dollar!

Bitcoin is real money, not the Dollar.

I'm not talking about "defying and ignoring the real economy", I'm talking about that economy using real money.

Where I come from markets exists to facilitate buying and selling of stuff and price discovery.

+1

BTC market is not a typical one, from my point of view.
Everybody criticize it for not being a vehicle of real trading, but it still exists, so we have to accept it.

https://www.havelockinvestments.com/

since you asked  :P

Disclaimer:  I neither promote nor have any reason to think these guys are not legit. I have no affiliation with, and no bitcoins (or other out-dated currencies of any kind) invested with these guys.

Interesting, thanks

Check this out:
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular (http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular)

What about it?

Just found it interesting, the number of transactions has also been going down.

Well more people buy and use bitcoins during rising prices, this is nothing new. And in a way the number of transactions is more related to trading volume than price.
My conclusion would be that we are still far away from panic selling territory. Looks more like profit taking atm.

I agree, but I don't rule out a panic sell.

To whoever or whatever reason brought the price down to 10$ "THANK YOU". I thought I would never be able to buy @ 10$ again. I am looking to buy more tomorrow @ whatever price lower than 11$. I am one of those who values bitcoin much more than any fiat currency or even gold.

Time to load up. Looks like the same pre-election dollar pump-up that has been pushing down gold is also pushing down BTC. Prices should recover in November/December.

Do you design and build model trains too? If you think bitcoin is some "neat" idea to be used by casual hobbyists for selling three and a half coins to some bitcoin bohemian you met online and then met in person, then you have little appreciation of the ambition of Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoin project. What possible value did bitcoin provide you in "settling small everyday stuff" that couldn't have been accomplished with dollar cash? What percent of the world do you think has vaguely any interest whatsoever in participating in the economy in this "bitcoin enthusiast" fashion?

"Our competition"? Bitcoin is not competition to the fiat-based credit card point of sale systems. There are maybe a half a dozen token transactions daily that actually deal in bitcoins, in person, and most of these occur at some bitcoin enthusiast meet-up. All bitcoin transactions occur online. The simple fact is that the cost of learning about bitcoin, dealing with fluctuations, installing an android app, and grappling with the fact that no customers know what the hell they are , far outweighs the pittance saved in credit card company fees. If you believe bitcoin can be spread this way, then I encourage you to also go convince your family to uproot to new hampshire to participate in that far-fetched libertarian venture, and then to go canvass for obscure 3rd party candidates! This view is best expressed in what is perhaps the most commonly expressed and yet false sentiment I've ever heard: "Every little bit counts".

It's all well and good to be a bitcoin cheerleader, but let's be serious here. The world is far too big and bitcoin far too complex for mere word of mouth to drive its adoption. Indeed, the only reason the network is the most powerful distributed network on earth is because there's a huge profit incentive. People need something valuable to respond to, and making tiny token transactions on smartphone for a beer is a value to bitcoin enthusiasts, not to the masses . The bitcoin community needs to stop worrying about these irrelevant interests, and start focusing on engaging with the world economy as a currency of currencies, and THEN as a currency proper.

This is the second annual Christmas sell off.  It's that time of year when a lot of bitcoin hoarding miners and speculators sell off most of their bitcoin stash to free up funds for some early Christmas shopping.

I bet on manipulation.. Too many big players in a very small market, too much chance to have a double, triple in value in the next month or so..

BTC total capitalisation is very very small.. with a single million, fiat or BTC, this market can be swigned in dramatic peak up or down, too easy to manipulate.

Then, it's time to buy, because if it's really a manip down, the goal of the manipulator(s) is to buy low... so, dont follow the mass, follow the leader ;)

+1

I've read few times, that BFL did not kept BTC, all order/preorder where instantly converted to USD, as BFL is not interested in hoarding BTC, but USD !

Rather their partners/suppliers take payment in USD..... for now..... :D

No bear parties allowed until the 200 day ema breaks... That's currently 9.275 for you non-chartists out there.

I don't know, but I hope it keeps selling off so that I can buy more :)

Today, less than 0.01%. Within a few years, probably 90%. In my opinion, this will be a consecuence of the collapse of the financial system based on fiat money. Panic is a powerful driver.

At first we are in this "collapse" since 2008.

Second: What makes you think the majority would head to Bitcoin?

Exactly my thoughts; I have no idea what the sellers are doing a month before a halving but I will take it - paycheck coming in in ~4 days :D :D :D

I will eat my words if the price does not climb at least 50% during December/January.

I have just started using BTC instead of Western Union and its both easier and cheaper - even if the price dropped to 0.01 I would still be using this stuff. So yeah I'm not worried about BTCs value or adoption rates.

Price have been pushed down just to buy "cheap" Bitcoins once done, price will go further up.

Thats not vewwy noice

I lost the Bitcoin black friday...  :'(

Hey Mr Manipulator, I wanna buy btc<10$ too

What a strange time in btc land, no bad news just a panic. I would like to thank those who did at least I got back in lower than my previous panic, lolling in shame. I was thinking all through the year that the price would of been climbing in anticipation of The Halving(great name for a movie) and I am hoping beyond hope that this is the lowest it will be from now on.

This is just a weak bounce on low volume. We will drop <10 again ;)

triple deja-vu

We haven't broken the 10$ line, too (we broke it, it generated tons of orders, most of it could have not be finished).

What do you mean? We clearly went below 10 multiple times, and it lasted way longer than just a simple spike.

Don't know, I just looked at the monthly graph with the spindles covering many hours. There was only one spindle under 10$ so I toght that.

Interesting than, it will go lower and lower. I will wait to buy.

Here's a nice site that shows current market depth and the price action in the last 24 hours: http://mtgoxlive.com/orders?volumeon
As you can see we've been below 10 for multiple hours. It isn't that long of course, but it's hardly a sudden spike.

Would you like to bet BTC10 with me? I wager BTC10 that the price will not be equal to or above USD 15 on the stroke of February 1 2013 at 00:00 UTC. If the price is below USD 15 at that point, you pay me BTC10. If the price is equal to or above USD 15, I pay you BTC10. Sound good?

LOL at the people saying "No bad news."

Have you been following the news in the past months? Take the rosy Bitcoin goggles OFF.

maybe if you would be more specific we could reconsider.

Same in here. I can and I do use Bitcoin network. It saves me money and time, compared to international wires or WU.  Volatility is even good, as I can usually afford to wait a day or two for a good arbitrage opportunity between the two markets (in my case CAD/USD). Sure, I've got a few coins in my savings and investments, but that's a long-term game based on my assesment of long-term chances of Bitcoin going "big". Again, no problem with short-term swings, panic-sells, and pump'n'dump episodes.

It's good to hear that use-case is developing. Hear that story about the Iranians sending 2.5kUSD using Bitcoin to their kid who studies in the states or somewhere? Cost them $20... pretty awesome: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=118940.msg1291361#msg1291361

I don't know the date; I just know this is not sustainable.

If they know how to use email, they will head to Bitcoin.

That's a bit much, lets say 1 BTC and it's a deal - I'm not a (very) betting man;)

Bad analogy, since Bitcoin is not a mere protocol it includes a semi-mandatory checking system.
Might the concept or even the source code play a major role in the aftermath of a fiat-system collapse, possible who knows. But the voluntary creation of a new elite? (us, the people who already own bitcoins, not a few satoshis)

Definitely not.

Yes, still a deal. BTC1 it is then.

quoting as witness

Thanks for the assistance. I'm honest and so certainly won't be trying to weasel out if I lose the wager, unless I happen to have died. So it is agreed that the wager is BTC1, down from the original BTC10.

oh, I thought it was common practice for an unrelated party to quote the bet as a simple, effective and cheap measure against people deleting posts relevant for possible dispute-resolution. Now that you told me you're honest I certainly don't think it would've been necessary.

Haha, yeah I guess not too many scammers would say "I'm a crook". :) Then again, if they had any brains, they wouldn't be low enough to try to scam someone out of BTC1 or even BTC10. But yes, some peeps are that low.

It is a fairly obvious thing to do, yes, and thanks again.

Does this post make me a "senior member" here? ZOMG I needs to getz a life. ;D

Yea what he said.


Also I took a snap shot of this last night WTF?

http://i48.tinypic.com/15nuid2.png

you're welcome ;)


CONGRATULATIONS! Now you can post in "Topic: You really are a TRUE bitcoiner when..." (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=120779) :-)

Maybe a good time to pick up some cheap coins long term bitcoin up, the central banks "sugar high" has been ongoing since the crash of 2008 will only weaken the dollar. Also the low/no fees of bitcoin can only attract new users.

I would call it voluntary protection of their own wealth.

Don't try to be a smartass.

Get into my argument or leave it before you embarrass yourself.

I would get into your argument, but I can't find it. Maybe it's because I'm looking for consistency.

I think my criticism of blind Bitcoinism™ is anything but inconsistent.

You people get ahead of yourselves and miss so many opportunities by desperately trying to hard to make it something it can never be. Worse because of fear your devious plans to get wealthy at the expense of others fail you can't see the opportunity for innovation. Every proposal to provide at least some environment where people can actually trust each other (like for example third party signed transactions or taint systems) is trampled down while at the same time the scammers seize the opportunity to take the rest of what you once had - The potential to grow into a self sustaining economy.

This now also answered the question of: "Why?"

I have only seen bad ideas trampled down - taint very much one of them. Good ideas like decentralized stock exchanges and the like usually gather at least interest.

It's a little more than just gathering interest. People are actively discussing and multiple implementations are on the way.

I have to admit, though, that a certain tunnel vision of the crowd exists. Ideas that have the potential to threaten the throne of bitcoin are less likely to be welcomed than others. The reason is clearly fear.

back to topic: "WHY?"

A friend pointed out to me, that the recent drop was due to the latest of some Fibonacci retracements (http://lmgtfy.com/?q=fibonacci+retracement+chart+analysis), that balanced the price.
If you look at historic MtGox data, Fibonacci retracements work suprisingly well, the better the stronger the triggering price movement and the less distracting news, like with the past mini bubble burst from 15.xx USD to 7.8x USD with few big news or even fundamental changes.

"Fibonacci retractments" doesn't answer "why" the initial decline happened. Only says something about what might or might not happen after wards.

nice way to lmgtfy us, though ;)

Fibonacci retractments. So the movie  "PHI" was real?

It really happened man! It was actually filmed as an experimental documentary with lots of experimental camera perspectives and stuff (like the part when he's wearing that head mounted camera) about a mathematical prodigy. But after the events of the movie had taken place, the initial producers of the film (some students) bailed out and sold the rights to some other publisher that recut the material and marketed it as a fictional independant movie.

It doesnt answer why it happened the day it did, but it does explain WHY it happened if you understand Fibunacci retracements as resault of mass psychology at work, the same reason for why chart patterns and trends come into existence. Its the market balancing out.

I probably don't understand Fibonacci retractments in that case. Might look into it, thanks for reminding.

What movie? Sounds interesting, but I can't find a movie named Phi on IMDB.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0138704/

Phi:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c2/Phi_uc_lc.svg/160px-Phi_uc_lc.svg.png

Pi:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e2/Pi_uc_lc.svg/160px-Pi_uc_lc.svg.png

Psi
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/15/Psi_uc_lc.svg/160px-Psi_uc_lc.svg.png

Psy
http://cdn.techgeeze.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Gangnam-Style.png?3cc11c

*sigh*

PI is on Netflix

I'm feeling rather good about my bet nobbynobbynoob :D (That's his name, page 4-5, I'm not making fun of him ;) )

Just a 1.5 $ rise in value or ~10% in almost 2 months... Bitcoin has performed like that easily before.

Realpra won this bet - congratulations!

BTC1 paid as per Realpra's instructions. Transaction id: 09f8cff1309abc61e26d8db4ce720fd7e4bf39f04d7c0633ee5ff9a1db1e7308