Bitcoin Forum

Satoshi said, by 2020 bitcoin is eitheir mainstream either will disappear (quotation welcome, i didn't find it)
But how can it be mainstream with 7 transaction per second ? And if it's not mainstream, satoshi's logic woul tell us that bitcoin will disappear by 2020  ???

He never said that as far as I know , but he said the following :

Feb. 14, 2010: "I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large (bitcoin) transaction volume or no volume." which means 2030 (if we start counting from the day  he  posted the quote on the forums ) and not 2020 .

Scaling/increasing block size debates would solve this issue.

In case you missed it. This issue will not be solved any time soon. If ever...

It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of how right now. It may take time, but it will happen.

Thanks for bringing the quote back.

I somewhat agree, if by no volume it refers to very low volume. I think that bitcoin may well be turned into a kind of investment only some use.

Come on man, of course it will be solved. Why the heck are those people meeting again in Hong Kong in December if the debate will not be solved, let's show some optimism.

To the OP, yes scaling was planned by Satoshi as well. The current 1MB cap was introduced just as a temporary measure because of spamming.

I assume his sentiment was along the lines of it's either going to gain a major foothold around the world or die. The way the falling block reward is designed kind of necessitates that. I'm not so sure there's much of a middle ground.

2020 is still 5 years away.. If you look 5 years back, to 2010 and just a tiny amount of transactions and look at it now on avg of hundreds of thousands transactions per day..
I think Satoshi is proud of where we are right now. And expecting anything but the same fold in the next few years is an undevaluating bitcoin.

Please tell use more of your perma-bull lies.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-total

Are you *still here brainfarting all over the place Kwacker ?  Why do you bother ?
You might as well walk around wearing a red ball nose, propellor bowtie and a squirting flower, it wouldnt change your credibility one bit

Lets see, that chart you linked. 

Oct 18. total transactions = 88,361,598
Oct 15. total transactions = 85,991,386
difference = 2,370,212 transactions divied by elapsed time of 3 days
= 790,000 transactions per day

Looks truthful to me.

Like I said, you dont read (or comprehend) stuff too good, do you boy ?

Fun fact: VISA network can handle that in just over a second :)

Incorrect.  Supposedly its peak is 56,000 per second.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Scalability
http://www.visa.com/blogarchives/us/2013/10/10/stress-test-prepares-visanet-for-the-most-wonderful-time-of-the-year/index.html

In few more years who knows we might probably found a solution to solve the scalability issue and have the network being able to handle higher number of transactions than currently. Anyway, when he quoted saying that in 20 years there will either be very large (bitcoin) transaction volume or no volume, that was actually made in 2010, so theoretically, we have about another 15 more years before we get there.  

Only 7 transactions per second is not at all fixed and never lead to any difficulty to bitcoins fame. Because bitcoin is here for it's new innovative thinking and possible financial revolution. Per second transactions are easily modifiable if we need to. So, bitcoin will be here even for 2200 also...

He also never said 7TPS was forever on the contrary...

it was for 2030, not 2020, and anyway the original limit was 32, changed for ddos, but i'm sure he had a plan to change it later again, seeing how he know how much time would have require to reach mainstream

basically you can begin to worry about the limit after 2020

I was thinking something similar - there's already a large amount of transactions on the network compared to back then and it's still early days.

I stand corrected, make that 'over 10 seconds.'
No, 'they' do not charge me a big fee.  They charge me no fee at all. The seller pays the fee.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, charges *everybody* a huge fee you may not fully understand, so here's TL;DR:
Your transactions are paid for by Bitcoin's inflating base money supply, AKA "by printing money." The miners get paid 25 BTC every ~10 min for processing transactions. Plus the tx fees.
Pricey :o
My CC offers consumer protection. If stolen, all I need to do is report it, and my money magically reappears.
If you accidentally all your BTC, OTOH, it's gone. You're just sh1t out of luck :-\
You mean 'if,' then we'll talk. Til that happy day...

Some people look at bitcoin as a currency, for day to day transactions... However, the way bitcoin was designed leans more toward a system for value storage + instantaneous transmission of large amounts value.

Other options will arise to perform the tasks and functions that bitcoin is unable to

This is where bbqcoin steps in.

I think the reasoning behind the quote really comes down to the network hash rates and mining be able to make a profit.  In the future block rewards will be very very small such as in 2030.  So at that time even with super efficient machines they will need high volume of transaction with miner fees to make it worthwhile.  So when the block rewards go away there needs to be enough miner fees to support them otherwise they will go away.  No miners no network no bitcoin.

Exactly. When did he ever say this? Don't just go around spreading bad rumours about Bitcoin. Can you give us a link to where he said this, or is it just fake?

It seems rumor. I tried to find anything related to this, But I could not.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=3;sa=showPosts (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=3;sa=showPosts)

Bitcoin will stay here for ever. We need not to worry on the future of bitcoin for any reason.

He also designed the original code to be modular and easily upgradeable. The current limit on upgrading block sizes (to increase the transaction / second output) is dependent on the block size increase debate that is going on. I guess he didn't foresee all the politics of this!

Satoshi planned to take care of the blocksize limit years ago. Unfortunately development has pretty much halted and it has become just one of many dead-code open source projects.

His logic and plan was fine, his trust in others to resolve problems in a timely fashion, not so much.

Even if a solution is found, it's basically impossible to implement now without completely ravaging the existing ecosystem.

By 2020. So there is 4 for years even if he said that. And 4 years is a lot of time, lot of things can happen.

If we look what bitcoin made from 2011 until now its not impossible that in 2020 we will see btc much bigger and much more people will know about it.
I don't think btc will disappear ever, that sounds almost impossible.

Don't treat Satoshi's words as a prophecy. He was wrong about future of bitcoin himself, it is hard to predict future of invention so outstanding and new as bitcoin.
Total adoption could happen not in 2020 but instead 10, or 20 years later. As far I can tell bitcoin is not going to disappear in near future. That's for sure.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48.msg329#msg329

i like it when you are talking about missing it.  :)

The only fear I see is, when the mining will be over and all the coins will get mined in total, i.e.; 21M...
What will happen that day is unexpected and that's the only reason why I think that could be a do or die situation that might take place in the history of Bitcoins...

Your "only fear" is about 125 years away from happening if it could  ..... But there's no way it will happen if bitcoin is still going strong in 2140 people will be using bitcents or whatever we know today as "dust"  to buy real world  stuff..... :)

Well I don't think that bitcoin well disappear so don't just panic. I doubt that bitcoin will just go with this amount of money is accumulated. The only what can go if all the government just want to ban bitcoin that you are just fucked.
With this new generations people will accept bitcoin more and more and in 2016 a lot of company's will adopt bitcoin.

In year 2020 I don't really see that bitcoin will disappear.
I think bitcoin will rise to 2000 dollars and be kinda stable around that price.

I think 2k in 2020 is too conservative....
2k will probably be breached by June/July 2016
A lot of wow wow happening soon :)

I like this post because it points out the good and bad of bitcoin.

Bitcoin is as good as cash money or gold. If it gets stolen you cannot claim it back.
Creditcards give guarantees but require a bank knowing who you are. and transactions cost money.

Therefore both will always coexist.

Well above the number of transactions continue to work even though I disagree with a categorical phrase of Satoshi. Development will continue beyond 2020.

Wrong, isue is already solved with segwit + lightning network, Bitcoin is already a success, now we just need to sit down and let the developers keep doing a good job and be positive about it, in case you don't know how to code and present actual improvements, it's all we can do. So hold and enjoy, Bitcoin will not be stopped and will scale, it's a matter of time.

Also notice that satoshi's quote doesn't describe mainstream usage, transaction volume could be high without mainstream usage.