Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Economics => Topic started by: Bazil on June 05, 2011, 12:10:04 AM



Title: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Bazil on June 05, 2011, 12:10:04 AM
19 dollars,  I got in at 9.50, so my investment has officially doubled, and a month sooner than I anticipated.  Who's buying right now?  Must be the Chinese.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: d.james on June 05, 2011, 12:17:35 AM
wow crap, I sold a bunch at 17.5 yesterday,

should I buy back now?


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Bazil on June 05, 2011, 12:18:28 AM
There was a 50 cent sell off to 18.50 so I bought in, lets see what happens


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: d.james on June 05, 2011, 12:20:48 AM
if it drops back to 9, then you'll be break even :P


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: spleeder on June 05, 2011, 12:27:12 AM
It's unbelievable how fast the value of bitcoins is rising.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Justsomeforumuser on June 05, 2011, 12:41:00 AM
It's nice to finally see the faces behind the answer to the question of "Who on earth would still buy at these prices?"  ;D


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Findeton on June 05, 2011, 12:49:54 AM
It's very volatile right now. It's now about $18, it could go down to 16 or up to 20.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Bazil on June 05, 2011, 12:53:38 AM
It's nice to finally see the faces behind the answer to the question of "Who on earth would still buy at these prices?"  ;D
Day trading ;)  My main stash I let sit.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Suggester on June 05, 2011, 01:03:54 AM
wow crap, I sold a bunch at 17.5 yesterday,

should I buy back now?

It gets on my nerves whenever this otherwise excellent project is (rightfully) seen as a gambling speculation rather than as a medium of exchange. Apparently the folks opposing my anti-deflationary proposal, who are the majority, think it's a nice game where you can double your money within 24 hours and run away. Sigh


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: d.james on June 05, 2011, 01:08:07 AM
why so serious ;)


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Bazil on June 05, 2011, 01:48:29 AM
wow crap, I sold a bunch at 17.5 yesterday,

should I buy back now?

It gets on my nerves whenever this otherwise excellent project is (rightfully) seen as a gambling speculation rather than as a medium of exchange. Apparently the folks opposing my anti-deflationary proposal, who are the majority, think it's a nice game where you can double your money within 24 hours and run away. Sigh

If it wasn't for speculation the BTC would still be less than a dollar


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: tomcollins on June 05, 2011, 01:53:27 AM
wow crap, I sold a bunch at 17.5 yesterday,

should I buy back now?

It gets on my nerves whenever this otherwise excellent project is (rightfully) seen as a gambling speculation rather than as a medium of exchange. Apparently the folks opposing my anti-deflationary proposal, who are the majority, think it's a nice game where you can double your money within 24 hours and run away. Sigh

Oh noes, speculators might drive interest to something and have it make economic sense for people to invest sooner than they otherwise would have.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Anth0n on June 05, 2011, 04:07:22 AM
It's nice to finally see the faces behind the answer to the question of "Who on earth would still buy at these prices?"  ;D

The current prices may seem very cheap soon enough. Anyone remember this thread? http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8160 (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8160)

Coins were deemed expensive then too, and look what happened. Read my response at the bottom of that post if you want to feel confident.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: hiVe on June 05, 2011, 04:09:08 AM
why so serious ;)

Because potentially newbs like you can exploit and leave a negative impact on the bitcoin economy.
Its a fact.

For the past week im following a ton of new posts on the forums, can't even find the old valuable ones cuz they are 2 pages behind crap like this.
And almost every second post is about "omg noes we've hit a record high, i could have made twice as much as yesterday oh noes, its skyrocketing every day, wee wee"

now... seriously... Can it? leave a positive impression, at all?

ps: and don't take it all that personal, perhaps I shouldn't have quoted


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: econotarian on June 05, 2011, 07:20:47 AM
"It will be different this time" is often heard just before a sovereign debt crisis, stock market crash, real estate crash, etc.  It is the best indication that a bubble is happening.

The question is how much value of bitcoins is in their utility as a currency in real transactions, and how much is in speculation on being able to obtain dollars for them in the future.

Once the value of speculation is higher than the utility of bitcoin as a transacting currency, the bubble will no doubt burst.  In the Netherlands, at the peak of tulip mania in February 1637, prices rose 1000%.  By the next year, tulip prices dropped to their pre-bubble price.

Add South Sea Company bubble, Mississippi Company bubble, Dot-Com bubble, etc.

The Great Depression is another very interesting example - stocks were likely overpriced by bubble phenomenon, but what popped the bubble was deflationary pressure by the Fed.  Which is pretty much the situation bitcoin is in.

If bitcoin's money supply provided a stable value currency (neither inflationary nor deflationary), I think it would grow into something in the long term.  Given the current algorithm, I give it under 3 months.  After the bubble burst, I think interest in bitcoin will fade away.

A great social economic experiment though!  Someone's Ph.D. will be made examining the upcoming bitcoin bubble burst.



Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Dude65535 on June 05, 2011, 07:30:13 AM
While I agree that there probably will be a crash at some point, the bubble will fund the creation of the infrastructure. After the crash we will see those who stick with it start building the economy that will make bitcoin or its successor last.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Longmarch on June 05, 2011, 08:14:15 AM

Once the value of speculation is higher than the utility of bitcoin as a transacting currency, the bubble will no doubt burst. 



Um, ain't that where we're at now?  Speculative activity is far beyond purchasing goods and services right now. 



Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Suggester on June 05, 2011, 09:12:31 AM
If bitcoin's money supply provided a stable value currency (neither inflationary nor deflationary), I think it would grow into something in the long term.  Given the current algorithm, I give it under 3 months.  After the bubble burst, I think interest in bitcoin will fade away.

You look like someone who might like to check out my thread (https://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=57.0) and vote Yes then :)


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: tymothy on June 05, 2011, 05:31:09 PM

Once the value of speculation is higher than the utility of bitcoin as a transacting currency, the bubble will no doubt burst. 



Um, ain't that where we're at now?  Speculative activity is far beyond purchasing goods and services right now. 



The value of the bitcoin will continue to rise as more individuals decide to enter the bitcoin economy and demand bitcoins. The user base and trade volume of the bitcoin is far below that of any major currency, commodity or stock. Most of the current user base understands this and the fact that if the bitcoin were to become a majorly used currency, its value per unit would have to be many times higher than it currently is given the quantity of bitcoins available (fixed) compared to fiat currencies (rising). So long as the current holders of bitcoins believe the value will continue to rise and new users enter the market, it will. The day you see people taking out mortgages on their homes to buy bitcoins is the day you probably should get out.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: IIOII on June 05, 2011, 06:08:56 PM
The value of the bitcoin will continue to rise as more individuals decide to enter the bitcoin economy and demand bitcoins. The user base and trade volume of the bitcoin is far below that of any major currency, commodity or stock. Most of the current user base understands this and the fact that if the bitcoin were to become a majorly used currency, its value per unit would have to be many times higher than it currently is given the quantity of bitcoins available (fixed) compared to fiat currencies (rising). So long as the current holders of bitcoins believe the value will continue to rise and new users enter the market, it will. The day you see people taking out mortgages on their homes to buy bitcoins is the day you probably should get out.

I fully agree with this - however a sudden end to BTC caused by some kind of intervention should never be ruled out.

Bitcoin is both high hopes and high risk.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Mageant on June 05, 2011, 07:39:02 PM
The possibility of Bitcoins replacing the current fiat money system worldwide means it has a *huge* value potentially.
For instance if Bitcoins were to replace only 1% of the money used worldwide that would mean an increase in value by about 3000x from the current value (when all 21 million bitcoins have been created). If it were to replace *all* money worldwide, that means each bitcoin would be worth several million $.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: SmokeTooMuch on June 05, 2011, 08:13:33 PM
Who's buying right now?  Must be the Chinese.
There's huge media attention from Germany going on.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Bazil on June 05, 2011, 08:41:30 PM
Who's buying right now?  Must be the Chinese.
There's huge media attention from Germany going on.

I think it was at like 2 am in Germany when the $19 spike happened, probably not the Germans.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Kehaar on June 05, 2011, 11:05:21 PM
The possibility of Bitcoins replacing the current fiat money system worldwide means it has a *huge* value potentially.
For instance if Bitcoins were to replace only 1% of the money used worldwide that would mean an increase in value by about 3000x from the current value (when all 21 million bitcoins have been created). If it were to replace *all* money worldwide, that means each bitcoin would be worth several million $.

You say "only" like 1% of the world economy is a small amount :p


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Bit_Happy on June 06, 2011, 12:46:02 AM
wow crap, I sold a bunch at 17.5 yesterday,

should I buy back now?

Now while others are selling:
{"ticker":{"high":18.4452,"low":16.2,"vol":22059,"buy":16.605,"sell":16.69,"last":16.605}}


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Kman54 on June 06, 2011, 01:08:46 AM
Quote
For instance if Bitcoins were to replace only 1% of the money used worldwid

Stop this talk is stupid - its never going to take 1% of the worlds economy and you make us look like idiots when you talk like this. It maybe an alternative to other investments like gold or silver but lets be honest its value is because it can buy a relatively high amount of dollars. People want the dollar value not the bitcoins.



Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: benjamindees on June 06, 2011, 01:26:40 AM
Stop this talk is stupid - its never going to take 1% of the worlds economy and you make us look like idiots when you talk like this. It maybe an alternative to other investments like gold or silver but lets be honest its value is because it can buy a relatively high amount of dollars. People want the dollar value not the bitcoins.

Personally I think Bitcoin has much more promise as a medium of exchange than as an investment.  But even if it just reached parity with silver, that's $1500 / BTC.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Vector on June 06, 2011, 01:33:36 AM
Quote
For instance if Bitcoins were to replace only 1% of the money used worldwid

Stop this talk is stupid - its never going to take 1% of the worlds economy and you make us look like idiots when you talk like this. It maybe an alternative to other investments like gold or silver but lets be honest its value is because it can buy a relatively high amount of dollars. People want the dollar value not the bitcoins.



This is the sad truth of Bitcoin - people aren't buying it to buy Bitcoins, they are buying it to sell it. The ultimate truth is that the demand will flatten, and sell-off will follow.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Anth0n on June 06, 2011, 01:44:53 AM
Quote
For instance if Bitcoins were to replace only 1% of the money used worldwid

Stop this talk is stupid - its never going to take 1% of the worlds economy and you make us look like idiots when you talk like this. It maybe an alternative to other investments like gold or silver but lets be honest its value is because it can buy a relatively high amount of dollars. People want the dollar value not the bitcoins.



This is the sad truth of Bitcoin - people aren't buying it to buy Bitcoins, they are buying it to sell it. The ultimate truth is that the demand will flatten, and sell-off will follow.

Even if people are buying to sell it, that gives incentive for businesses to accept them. As long as Bitcoin services keep emerging, the value of Bitcoin will rise. Economically, Bitcoins are a better money than dollars, so plenty of people will have incentive to use them.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: istar on June 06, 2011, 09:42:26 AM
Bitcoins still have a long way to go. The client needs to be much safer and there is still the risc that it gets banned.
It takes time to develop good secure software and trustworthy software, atleast a year.
Probably something like two years from now we will have
the stoftware that is really needed.

Right now its a highrisc investment.

But of the earth population there is still like its only a few computer geeks who have invested in it.

When investors starts to get in, we will se the price increase.
What happens when the gold or oil industry jumps in?

Or if google used their equipment to mine?

I say in max two years from now we will know.
But its not going to replace fiat currency for a long time, since people dont want to loose all their money if their computer crashes.

But sure someday it might. Today a lot of trade is just done by digital numbers in a bank system.



Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: afterburner229 on June 06, 2011, 10:29:46 AM
BTC exchange races are most profitable business today, excepts drug sale ;)


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: dacoinminster on June 06, 2011, 02:06:44 PM
Bitcoin price increases are just getting started (http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=7985.0)


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: kiwiasian on August 10, 2011, 07:12:23 PM
Oh, these were the good days


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Cluster2k on August 11, 2011, 12:39:44 PM
One thing is assured with bitcoin investments: we will never hear today from those people who purchased bitcoins at $20, $25, and even $30.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Rassah on August 12, 2011, 04:20:45 PM
One thing is assured with bitcoin investments: we will never hear today from those people who purchased bitcoins at $20, $25, and even $30.

I'm still here. Bought at various times from $6 to $20. Bought a few grand at $20 actually. Still holding, still ok, still expecting it to go up eventually, and still buying (at $10 now).


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: cbeast on August 12, 2011, 06:08:40 PM
One thing is assured with bitcoin investments: we will never hear today from those people who purchased bitcoins at $20, $25, and even $30.

I'm still here. Bought at various times from $6 to $20. Bought a few grand at $20 actually. Still holding, still ok, still expecting it to go up eventually, and still buying (at $10 now).
BTC is too big to fail. The idea, anyway. I imagine that early oilfield owners were annoyed at that sticky stuff messing up their farmland. Email took over a decade to be adopted and nearly two more decades to become ubiquitous. We are still all early adopters. Those people using the bitcoin exchanges to trade, just don't get the point of bitcoin. They could be developing the next killer app that would make them much richer.


Title: Re: BTC = $19?!
Post by: Bazil on August 12, 2011, 08:31:24 PM
wow who brought this tread back from the dead?  Bitcoin will start going up again.  10 seconds of exposure on any business news channel during prime time and it's value will explode.