Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Economics => Topic started by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 04, 2015, 12:19:44 PM



Title: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 04, 2015, 12:19:44 PM
These days, when the value of Bitcoin goes up (and down) in the couple of minutes, and when the Blockchain technology appears on the cover of 'The Economist', Bitcoin community is all but a boring one. From trying to predict the value of Bitcoin in the next minutes and hours, to trying to predict what will come out of the Blockchain technology in the coming months and years.

So, with all of this, every member of a Bitcoin community is in a way predictor and some of us surely want to predict more than what is so often unpredictable value of the Bitcoin, or some other markets that are offered.

Maybe being good in a technical things, you are able to predict Will the WhatsApp reach 1 billion users in 2015 (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/more-than-1-billion-whatsapp-users-in-2015/)? Though it is rather 50/50 situation as it reached 800m in April and 900m at the start of September. But maybe you have some additional info, and other just don't have them. Or are lazy to find.

Or maybe you are better in politics so you are sure that Angela Merkel will be Germany’s chancellor after 2017 elections (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-angela-merkel-be-germanys-chancellor-after-2017-elections/)? Even though she still didn't confirm officially that she will run to be the chancellor for the fourth time, and also has refugee crisis to deal with before the next elections. But Angela is Angela so that could be a sure bet.

Anyway, those are some of the suggested bets, so what would you bet on them? But more importantly, what are the other bets that you want to see on betting markets in the future? To have some additional drives of the brain cells, when all this fuss about the price of the Bitcoin gets back into the normal. At least, in a way what Bitcoin community comprehends as normal.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 05, 2015, 02:15:44 PM
With “Spectre” being released in the USA tomorrow, after setting a new record at the UK box office since being released on 26th October, one of the most popular entertainment questions these days is 'Who is going to be the next James Bond?' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-james-bond-1/).

In several recent interviews, Daniel Craig hinted that “Spectre” would be his last film as James Bond, so the actors like Damian Lewis, Tom Hardy, Idris Elba, Henry Cavill are already top contenders to drive Aston Martin in the 25th film. So, who is your favorite for the next James Bond?


And, more important question is, what are the other markets that you would like to see these days, as I'll continue to add one prediction market per day about the current events, while the suggestions from all of you are always more than welcomed.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 06, 2015, 05:37:50 PM
A month ago, Spain's prime minister Mariano Rajoy announced that the next General election will be held on December 20th. It is believed that a Christmas election will offer him a favorable economic wind and lower turnout due to the holidays, so it would help his People's Party to win the majority of seats.

Last polls do indicate a win for his People's Party, with nearly 28% of the vote, but still far short of an overall majority, with just 128 seats out of the 176 needed in the 350-seat Congress. They are followed by PSOE Socialist Workers (23%), growing Citizens Party (17%), and the Podemos Party (14%).

Markets are still favorable when it comes to People's Party winning most seats (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/spanish-general-election-2015-most-seats/), but do you think that things could change even more in Spain for the next month and half? And what are the other following elections that you find interesting?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 07, 2015, 01:36:59 PM
On 5 May 2016, the London mayoral election will be held and that will be the fifth election to the position of Mayor of London, which was created in 2000. The Mayor of London is the mayor of the entirety of Greater London, including the City of London, so these are surely one of the most popular mayoral elections in the world.

As incumbent Mayor Boris Johnson has chosen not to run for re-election for a third term in office, the main contenders are expected to be the Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith, and the Labour Party candidate Sadiq Khan. Though candidates from several other parties are also in race, they are almost without any chances.

While media write that this race might ‘revive some pretty basic class instincts’, betting markets are slightly more in favor of Sadiq Khan (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-london-mayor/), the son of a Pakistani-born bus driver. But Zac Goldsmith, son of the late billionaire financier Sir James Goldsmith, is still with the good chances to lead the capital that is now home to more than 8.6 million people.

Goldsmith is hoping that his environmental record will appeal to Green and Liberal Democrat voters, while Khan is a human rights lawyer who was the first person from an ethnic minority background to enter the shadow cabinet. So, what are you thoughts on the race for the Mayor of London, and are there more UK Politics markets you would like to see?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: cjmoles on November 08, 2015, 09:37:29 PM
I don't get this thread.  Are you sponsoring a prediction market?  If, so, how do I participate?  In the months to come I expect to see the rise in the use of prediction markets....For example, Augur is coming online soon and seems to have a lot of steam behind it.  Any thoughts on Augur?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 08, 2015, 10:04:07 PM
I don't get this thread.  Are you sponsoring a prediction market?  If, so, how do I participate?  In the months to come I expect to see the rise in the use of prediction markets....For example, Augur is coming online soon and seems to have a lot of steam behind it.  Any thoughts on Augur?

No, I am just creating the markets, so I want you to participate with your own ideas about the potential markets. You say that you expect to see the rise in the use of prediction markets, well I want to discuss about the markets that you find interesting and topics that you and other people would like to bet on.

Yes, Augur could be nice, 'Wisdom of the crowd' is the good idea, and it will be interesting to see how those things with reputation are going to work.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: cjmoles on November 08, 2015, 10:31:15 PM
I don't get this thread.  Are you sponsoring a prediction market?  If, so, how do I participate?  In the months to come I expect to see the rise in the use of prediction markets....For example, Augur is coming online soon and seems to have a lot of steam behind it.  Any thoughts on Augur?

No, I am just creating the markets, so I want you to participate with your own ideas about the potential markets. You say that you expect to see the rise in the use of prediction markets, well I want to discuss about the markets that you find interesting and topics that you and other people would like to bet on.

Yes, Augur could be nice, 'Wisdom of the crowd' is the good idea, and it will be interesting to see how those things with reputation are going to work.

I am holding some REP so I am excited about the project.  I don't know if I will invest on the other side until I see how accurate the predictions will be.  The question of "mob rules" seems a bit precarious to me....the masses have a history of being wrong....so....we will see.  Interesting times are ahead, to be sure!


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 09, 2015, 02:44:49 PM
I am holding some REP so I am excited about the project.  I don't know if I will invest on the other side until I see how accurate the predictions will be.  The question of "mob rules" seems a bit precarious to me....the masses have a history of being wrong....so....we will see.  Interesting times are ahead, to be sure!

Yes, you are right about the masses. But when masses put their money on something, their decisions could be better. Anyway, I agree that interesting times are ahead.

And as we talk about the masses, there is once again question of the EU Referendum in the UK, as David Cameron will on Tuesday send a letter to Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, setting out his demands for change in Britain's relations with the EU. With this he will warn his European partners that if they deny his demands he may recommend a vote to leave the EU.

Cameron promised the EU Referendum by the end of 2017, but it could be held in June 2016 (as other EU leaders want to have Referendum before the autumn, with another migration crisis likely next summer) and campaign to leave is well-financed, while he finally started to be clear enough in what he wants from other EU leaders.

Most betting markets and opinion polls show that Britons favor staying in the EU (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-british-people-decide-to-stay-in-the-eu-1/), but recently the gap with those wanting to leave has started to narrow. So date of the Referendum could decide a lot, but what are your other opinions on this? Would you favor UK leaving the EU?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 10, 2015, 05:40:31 PM
With the late autumn and early winter comes the season of the movies in contention for the Oscars. We've already seen some of those that could get awards in February, some other are yet to hit cinemas but betting markets already have their opinions (https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/oscars/all/). Do you agree with them?

Like every year, the Best Picture could go to a lot of movies, but at the moment three dramas lead, though two of them will come to the cinemas at the end of the year,: 'Spotlight', 'Joy', and 'The Revenant'. Directors of these three movies are also in lead when it comes to the Best Director award, with David O. Russell, director of 'Joy', having the best chances for now.

It will be interesting to see if the Leonardo DiCaprio can finally win Oscar for the Best Actor. At the moment, markets see his lead role in 'The Revenant' as a second favorite, after Michael Fassbender for the role of Steve Jobs. When it comes to the Best Supporting Actor, we could have tight race between Michael Keaton in 'Spotlight' and 'Idris Elba in 'Beast of No Nation'.

As for the Best Supporting Actress, everyone is sure that it will be Rooney Mara for her role in 'Carol'. Still, nothing is sure when it comes to the Best Actress as Brie Larson has best chances for now as the leading actor in 'Room', though Cate Blanchett in 'Carol' and Jennifer Lawrence in 'Joy' could also have a nice February evening. Do you have any of your own favorites?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 11, 2015, 02:08:12 PM
'Put that you were Time's 2006 person of the year on your CV. In 2006, Time made "Everyone" the person of the year.'

It is true and that 2006 award was named one of the ten most controversial "Person of the Year" moments in the history of Time. So once again, at the start of the December Time will announce its "Person of the Year" winner. Last year we had Ebola fighters, before that Pope Francis, Barack Obama, and also The Protester in 2011.

This year betting markets favour the Migrants/the Refugees (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/time-person-of-the-year-2015/) so once again group of people could get the award, but it could also go to Alexis Tsipras, Angela Merkel, Caitlyn Jenner, Taylor Swift, Elon Musk, or once again Obama, Putin, or Pope Francis. And, to anyone else. This award will not change a lot but in the future it will remind us how was 2015, so who would you like to see as the "Person of the Year"?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 12, 2015, 07:06:12 PM
One of the popular awards at the end of the year is the BBC Sports Personality Of The Year.

This year Jessica Ennis-Hill, track and field athlete who is the current Olympic and world heptathlon champion, has the best chances to get the award but nothing is yet done as Andy Murray still has time to become hero of the year.

Lewis Hamilton, Chris Froome, Mo Farah, Wayne Rooney are also in contention, well, as many others athletes. We have a month more till the closing of these popular SPOTY awards, so if you believe in Ennis-Hill, Murray or someone else, you can see markets and place you bets here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bbc-sports-personality-of-the-year-2015/


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 14, 2015, 04:33:55 PM
Ten days ago, we got the text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership explained on Medium (https://medium.com/the-trans-pacific-partnership), it even had it Introduction written by Mr. Obama, so it was once again shown that implementing the TPP has been one of the trade agenda goals of the Obama administration in the US.

Both before and after that, there were a lot of talk about the TPP, for those being positive in the US it is 'leveling the playing field for American workers & American businesses' but for others, like EFF (https://www.eff.org/issues/tpp) 'this is secretive, multi-national trade agreement that threatens to extend restrictive intellectual property (IP) laws across the globe and rewrite international rules on its enforcement, and it will do so in a way that will have extensive negative ramifications for users’ freedom of speech, privacy, access to information, and ability to innovate.'

I am sure that you already have your opinion but do you think that the US Congress will be able to ratify TPP, and even more, do you think that it will be able to ratify TPP before 1 July 2016, as many think that Congress could vote on the bill either during the Summer of 2016 or in the lame-duck session after the 2016 elections. Anyway if you are sure that it will or will not be ratified before 1 July 2016, you have opened betting markets here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/us-congress-to-ratify-tpp-before-1-july-2016-2/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 18, 2015, 12:23:07 PM
For example, Augur is coming online soon and seems to have a lot of steam behind it.  Any thoughts on Augur?

As Augur is a popular topic these days, there are now few betting markets that could be especially interesting for you and those already owning Reputation tokens.

It is still not confirmed when will Augur have its live release so you can place bet that it will be before or after the March 1st next year: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-augur-be-launched-till-march-1st-2016-2/

At the moment, Gatecoin has a REPBTC price at 0.00455, so if you think that the Augur’s reputation token (REP) price will be at least 0.005 BTC on February 15th 2016. Or not: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-augurs-rep-price-be-above-0-005-btc-on-february-15th-2016-1/

And, as Augur will probably be launched after the February 15th, and you have ideas that the price will go up and down in the months following its release, you have a market on its value on January 1st 2017. If you are sure it will be above or under 0.005 on that date, you have a betting market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-augurs-rep-price-be-above-0-005-btc-on-january-1st-2017/

Anyway, Augur is an interesting topic, so some additional markets about the value of the investment in it are going to be released as well.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 19, 2015, 02:18:36 PM
After creating more serious Augur markets, that you can find at https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/bitcoin/augur/all/ here are some for those in love with the beautiful woman and Christmas charts.

There are huge chances that the X Factor 2015 winner will also be the UK Christmas Number One Single of 2015 but some think that Adele has some chances to beat that winner, or even late Cilla Black or Aurora. Maybe you have some other favorites so you can bet on them at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/uk-christmas-number-one-single-2015/.

And few days before the Christmas, we will have another Miss World competition, and if you don't have exact favorite you have a market for the Region of the Winner. Europe is currently a bit ahead but other regions have beautiful ladies in contention as well: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/miss-world-2015-winner-by-region/.

Do you have some more entertainment markets that you would like to see, or some more economics or politics markets, like those in connection with Augur?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 20, 2015, 02:39:08 PM
With AndreasMAntonopoulos tweeting yesterday "US and allies funded ISIS against Assad, provided weapons, provided training and now will blame bitcoin for the blowback.", there has been even more talk about Bitcoin being banned, especially being banned in Europe.

So, regarding these talks, now you have an open market 'Will Bitcoin be banned in Europe in 2016?' that resolves to Yes, if on December 31st 2016 Bitstamp.net, Kraken.com and Bitcoin.de are out of business or do not allow more than 50% of its existing European individual customers to buy and sell Bitcoins for fiat currency.

If you are one of those thinking that there are even slightly chances that this could happed, than you have great odds at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bitcoin-be-banned-in-europe-in-2016/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 21, 2015, 01:09:42 PM
When we put entertainment and sports together, there are not many events as popular as the Royal Rumble. This professional wrestling event, produced every January by WWE, had some extremely negative audience reaction last time and #CancelWWENetwork became the top Twitter trend worldwide shortly after the event.

So, in will be interesting to see what will WWE do in two months. Will they once again go with the last winner Roman Reigns, or maybe with the crowd favorite Daniel Bryan. On the other side, Brock Lesnar and Dean Ambrose are two main favorites, but John Cena is always there. If you have your favorite for the another spectacular Royal Rumble you can find the markets here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/wwe-royal-rumble-2016-match/


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: cjmoles on November 21, 2015, 07:00:54 PM
Well, I deposited into a prediction market I heard about on the Devcon stream but it wasn't what it claimed.  I'm not so sure about prediction markets anymore.  I own some Augur Rep so I'll just stick to the reporting side of things....Beware of the Gnosis prediction market using Ethereum; it sent my Ether into a cyber void!  Fitting, smile, I lost me Ether in the ether.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 23, 2015, 07:29:22 PM
Next year we have US presidential election, scheduled for November 8th, with Hillary Clinton having the biggest chances to be the next Democratic President. Marco Rubio and Donald Trump are with the biggest chances when it comes to the Republicans, while you can see the complete betting market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-president-17/.

So, it is still far from sure who of the Republicans will go against Hillary who will surely be a Democratic nominee. More will be known with the Iowa caucus on February 1st that will serve as an early indication of which candidates for president might win the nomination of their political party at that party's national convention, and which ones could drop out for lack of support.

Ben Carson, Donald Trump, and Ted Cruz are with then even chances to win the Iowa caucus for now, but if you think that Marco Rubio could win it as well, you can find betting market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/iowa-caucus-republican-winner/. At the same time, Hillary is with the big chances to be the Democratic winner of the Iowa caucus, with Bernie Sanders having some chances: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/iowa-caucus-democratic-winner/.

One week after Iowa caucus, we will have the New Hampshire primary on February 9th and it will be interesting to see will those results confirm those of Iowa Caucus. For now, Sanders is given rather solid chances when it comes to the Democrats in the New Hampshire primary so he could be rather even with Hillary: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/new-hampshire-primary-democratic-winner/. As for the Republicans, it will again be tight, though Trump and Rubio are at the moment with the even chances to win the New Hampshire primary: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/new-hampshire-primary-republican-winner/.

All in all, Iowa and New Hampshire do not have too many voters but with the huge media coverage they can always be an early indicators of what will follow for the rest of the year, before November 8th. What are you thoughts about these, and are there some other US Presidential Election markets that you would like to see?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 25, 2015, 04:07:40 PM
Okay, Star Wars fans, we are less than a month away from the opening of The Force Awakens, and I am sure you will go to see it in the cinema as early as you can. But, how many people will do that and do you think that The Force Awakens can become the highest-grossing movie of all time?

If you think that it can go above Avatar that had a worldwide gross of $2,787,965,087, you have an open market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/star-wars-the-force-awakens-to-gross-worldwide-more-than-avatar/. But if you think that $2.8 Billion is a bit too much, you can predict that it will go above (or stay above) the worldwide gross of $1.8 Billion: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/star-wars-the-force-awakens-to-gross-worldwide-more-than-1-8-billion/.

Anyway, we are almost there and it is time to enjoy great movie months and, of course, you can already go through the Oscars' markets https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/oscars/all/ and suggest your own as well. So, any opinions?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 26, 2015, 03:39:06 PM
Tensions rise in the Middle East after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane, and Russian President Vladimir Putin accusing Turkey of being "the terrorists' accomplices" for shooting down a plane he claimed was on an anti-terrorism mission.

But at the same time, daughter of the Putin's slain opposition leader Boris Nemtsov said that Kremlin critics live in fear under President Vladimir Putin but there will come a time when Russia is ready for a new brand of politician. The next presidential elections in Russia will take place in March 2018, and now you have open market if Vladimir Putin will be reelected as the President of Russia: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/vladimir-putin-to-be-reelected-as-the-president-of-russia/.

At the moment, there are still big chances that Putin will be reelected once again, though his current political decisions could change a lot. What is your opinion on this, and would you like to see some other markets connected with the current political affairs in the world?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 27, 2015, 04:00:53 PM
One of the following elections that is also popular these days is the French presidential election scheduled for April and May of 2017. Latest pools are showing that Sarkozy starts to lose some of the support that goes to Marine Le Pen, Manuel Valls, but also to Alain Juppe. Francois Hollande is also not without the chances so the next French presidential election is going to be really even one. Here is the current market: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/french-election-next-president/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 30, 2015, 03:53:15 PM
One of the topics that is often emerging is that about the relationship between Russia and Bitcoin. It was often talked that Bitcoin was banned in Russia but, though not being widely accepted, it was never criminalised. So, it is still safe to be a crypto enthusiasts in Russia but sadly it not sure for how long.

In a recent interview for the CoinDesk (http://www.coindesk.com/russia-ban-bitcoin-not-blockchain/), deputy finance minister Alexey Moiseev told that the Ministry was working on a draft law that would seek to punish those converting cryptocurrencies into the ruble with up to four years in prison. That draft is now being reviewed by the Cabinet, and will then be submitted to the Russia's Parliament for final approval.

As Bitcoin could be criminalised in Russia and this often being talked about, you now have an open market about this topic: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-to-be-outlawed-in-russia-in-2016-1/. So, do you think that Bitcoin will be outlawed in Russia in 2016 or do you think that even in this country it has a positive future?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 01, 2015, 01:45:05 PM
"On Syria, there is no great national benefit for Russia in Assad remaining indefinitely in office, and there is no great national benefit for the U.S. in forcing him to quit instantly, and there is also a shared interest in avoiding a major U.S.-Russia collision. I may be naive but I think this is one of those situations in which the stakes are not that dramatic," said few days ago for Politico Zbigniew Brzezinski.

So, some think that situation about Bashar al-Assad is not so dramatic and that he should stay the president of Syria for the time being, with the next presidential election scheduled for 2021 (he was elected in June last year). But others think that the situation with ISIS is not going in his favor so he won't stay for long as the head of the country. Because of this, you now have open market on whether Bashar al-Assad will remain the president of Syria through 2016: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bashar-al-assad-to-remain-the-president-of-syria-through-2016/

What are your opinions on this market? Do you think that both Russia and US will agree to keep him as president, or is one year more just too much for Assad? And, do you have any suggestions when it comes to the markets about the world politics?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 02, 2015, 07:32:53 PM
A lot of US Presidential Election markets has been created (https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/us-presidential-election/all/)  but what about the US Senate election? It will also be held on November 8, 2016, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections, with Democrats expected to have 10 seats up for election, while Republicans are expected to have 24 seats up for election.

So, it will be interesting to see can Republicans keep the majority in Senate they gained in the previous election, or can Hillary influence Democrats to gain back the majority in Senate. If you have an opinion who will have the majority after the next election, you have an open market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republicans-to-keep-a-senate-majority-after-the-2016-election/.

And what are you other opinions about the US Election, and are there some other markets you would like to see open?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 03, 2015, 01:37:16 PM
One of the interesting election in 2016 will be that for the next United Nations Secretary-General that will determine who will succeed Ban Ki-moon whose term will conclude on 31 December 2016. Because of the informal regional rotation scheme, many commentators speculate that the next UN Secretary-General will come from the Eastern European Group, as that region has never produced a Secretary-General.

But even more talked topic is that that raises the question of the next UN Secretary-General for the first time being a woman. For now, more of the potential candidates talked about are women, like Dalia Grybauskaite, Dilma Rousseff, or even Angela Merkel. If you also believe that the next Secretary-General will be a woman, you now have an open market here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general-1/.

So, what is your opinion about this market, and do you believe that the winner of this election will be also from the Eastern European Group?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 04, 2015, 03:09:28 PM
'Russia Accuses Turkey of Smuggling ISIS Oil. Turkey Replies: No, You Are.'

Some think that we have a lot of child's play these days between Russia and Turkey, but other think that things could get even more serious. For now, Turkish President Erdogan was accused that he and his family are involved in this criminal business, so he is in a hard situation right now and thus here is the market on whether he will remain the president of Turkey through 2016, even being elected last year: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/erdogan-to-remain-the-president-of-turkey-through-2016-2/.

Other talking topic is about Turkey and NATO, and will Turkey call a NATO Article four consultation once again, after she already did that in July. In the six decades since NATO’s creation, Article 4 has been invoked only five times, three of which were by Turkey. So, if you think that there are chances that Turkey will invoke Article 4 once again before March 1, here is a market for you: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/turkey-to-invoke-natos-article-4-before-march-1-2016-1/.

So, what are your opinions on these markets and do you have suggestions for other markets when it comes to the current situation between Turkey and Russia?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 07, 2015, 05:22:19 PM
As he comes into his final 13 months as President, Obama is once again under the pressure to close Guantanamo Bay prison. He has long held a deep personal conviction on the issue, dating back to his days as a senator. He has argued repeatedly that the prison at Guantanamo provides fodder for extremist propaganda, damages relations with allies, and violates America’s values.

But even after so many years, he did not close it, though since Obama took office, the administration has gradually cut the number of detainees by more than half, from 242 to 112. But at the same time, more than 50 detainees have been cleared for release for years because they pose no danger, yet have remained locked away in cages in some sort of legal limbo.

Nowadays, experts are divided over whether Obama actually has the constitutional authority to take action on Guantanamo, and whether he will wait for election to pass to do that. Anyway, it is a popular topic so now you have an open market on it https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/obama-to-close-guantanamo-before-leaving-office/ and please express your opinions on this market and suggest additional markets on US Politics.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 08, 2015, 04:38:26 PM
Next year will be another important year when it comes to the marijuana legalization in USA, as Californians will probably once again weigh in on this issue. In 2010, Proposition 19 would have made this state the first in the country to legalize marijuana, but voters defeated the measure by a 53.5-46.5 margin.

But, from then on four other states (Colorado, Washington, Oregon and Alaska) have gone on to legalize cannabis, so many suspect California is ready to do likewise. And it could be really important voting as California represents one of the world’s largest economies all on its own, so if cannabis is legalized, it will have a dramatic effect across the country.

Recently, it is a really popular topic as, in California's race to legitimize recreational marijuana, at least 10 legalization initiatives are vying to appear on the state’s November 2016 ballot. So, if you have your own opinion you have now open market on this issue as well: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/california-to-legalise-marijuana-in-2016/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: thejaytiesto on December 08, 2015, 05:35:48 PM
The Bitcoin community doesn't really care when stuff like Blythe Masters going on some mainstream magazine talking about the blockchain in the cover because anyone that consider himself part of the Bitcoin community and wants a good outcome for Bitcoin considers this an enemy. In any case, all publicity is good so let them do their blockchain technology promoting thing.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 09, 2015, 11:49:12 AM
In any case, all publicity is good so let them do their blockchain technology promoting thing.

And as we talk about publicity... There was rarely a headline for the Bitcoin community as interesting as WIRED's 'Bitcoin’s Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Is Probably This Unknown Australian Genius'. So, do you think that Craig Steven Wright is really Satoshi Nakamoto, or was he a member of the team that created Bitcoin? Or all of it is an elaborate hoax?

Anyway, you surely have your opinion and you have also a chance to earn from it on the open market 'Is Craig Steven Wright Satoshi Nakamoto?' So, don't miss it: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/is-craig-steven-wright-satoshi-nakamoto/
 



Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 10, 2015, 12:57:48 PM
In the last few days Donald Trump once again refused to close the door to a third-party presidential bid as he he is not being treated well by the GOP 'establishment'. "A new poll indicates that 68% of my supporters would vote for me if I departed the GOP & ran as an independent," he tweeted two days ago, so as pledges and promises mean nothing to him, his supporters turn a blind eyev on that.

With this, Trump is tacitly saying that he will make Hillary win, if he doesn’t get what he wants. Because of this topic being popular once again, you now have an open market on Will Donald Trump be a third party presidential candidate in 2016 and odds on him deciding so are really good: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/donald-trump-to-be-a-third-party-presidential-candidate-in-2016/.

So, what do you think about this? Will Donald Trump break his pledge, leave the list of Republican presidential candidates and runs as an independent/third-party candidate at the 2016 Presidential Election?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 11, 2015, 01:34:13 PM
In June this year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said a woman will be featured on a redesigned $10 bill in 2020 - the 100th anniversary of the Constitution's 19th Amendment, which gave women the right to vote.

Since then there was a lot of speculation who deserves to be the first woman on U.S. paper currency since Martha Washington, who was on the $1 Silver Certificate between 1891 and 1896. And though this $10 bill will appear in 2020, the announcement should be made in the following weeks.

So, who is your favorite for the Woman that will be on a new $10 bill? Eleanor Roosevelt, Harriet Tubman, or someone else? Hurry up, as the announcement could be made any day now: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/which-woman-will-be-on-a-new-10-bill/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 14, 2015, 04:11:32 PM
Four days ago, Golden Globes 2016 nominations list was revealed and thus here are the markets for the seven main categories: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/golden-globes/all/

One of the strange nominations was one that put The Martian in the category of Best Picture: Musical or Comedy. So, though The Martian has biggest chances to win it (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-picture-musical-or-comedy/), it is really unusual to see this movie among comedies.

In the category of the Best Picture: Drama, by far the biggest favorite is 'Spotlight' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-picture-drama/), while its director Thomas McCarthy is the second favorite for the Best Director award, behind Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, director of 'The Revenant' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-director/).

The biggest favorite among the all categories is Leo DiCaprio for the Best Actor: Drama , for his role in 'The Revenant' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actor-drama/), while Matt Damon should win the Best Actor: Musical or Comedy for 'The Martian', another strange award this movie could get (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actor-musical-or-comedy/).

When it comes to the ladies, Brie Larson in 'Room' is the first option when it comes to the Best Actress: Drama (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actress-drama/), while Jennifer Lawrence in the first favorite for the Best Actress: Musical or Comedy, though Amy Schumer could win this award as well, for her role in 'Trainwreck' (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/golden-globe-best-actress-musical-or-comedy/).

Anyway, there is a lot of the other nominees so you can choose other bets as well, and you can also suggest if you want to see some other markets created when it comes to the Golden Globe Awards.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 15, 2015, 04:11:20 PM
Most political analysts believe it is an almost certainty that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic party’s presidential candidate in 2016, so that leaves the question open for who her running mate will be. And it is even possible for Bill Clinton to be his wife’s running mate.

Still, in October she said that if she wins her party's nomination, then she would seriously consider making Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro her running mate. At 40 years old, Castro is relatively young, and he’s also Hispanic, so it not a surprise that he is at the moment favorite for the Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-nominee/. But, it is far from decided so you have options like Tim Kaine, Martin O'Malley, Cory Booker, or any other open as well.

It is even more open when it comes to the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee as it is far from sure who will be a Presidential Nominee. Anyway, there is an opinion that the Republican presidential nominee will need a woman by his side to run against Hillary Clinton. Thus, Carly Fiorina has a minimal lead at the moment, while being followed by John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Nikki Haley.

There is still a lot of factors for these markets and that's making them even more interesting as odds are really good. What are your opinions on them and do you have any other suggestions for the US Presidential Election markets? Those already created you can find here: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/us-presidential-election/all/.



Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 16, 2015, 03:06:45 PM
One of the most popular awards ceremonies in music industry is that of Annual Grammy Awards, and the 2016 Grammy Awards ceremony will be held on Monday, February 15, 2016 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Ten days ago, nominations were released, and now you can bet on the main three categories. And please suggest if you would like to see more markets created for Grammys or any other Awards ceremonies.

Album of the Year will probably be decided between '1989' by Taylor Swift and 'To Pimp A Butterfly' by Kendrick Lemar. Though, your favorite could be 'Beauty Behind The Madness' by The Weekend so you can find great odds at that one here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/grammys-2016-album-of-the-year/.

The Weekend is also the third favorite when it comes to the Record Of The Year for 'Can't Feel My Face' but once again without big chances. By far the biggest favorite is 'Uptown Funk' by Mark Ronson Ft. Bruno Mars, and even 'Blank Space' by Taylor Swift has rather small chances. If you are also sure that 'Uptown Funk' will win Grammys you can bet here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/grammys-2016-record-of-the-year/.

Meghan Trainor is a favorite for the always popular New Artist award but it could be one of the most interesting categories as James Bay and Sam Hunt also have good chances. And if you think that even Courtney Barnett or Tori Kelly could win it, you can place bets on them as well: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/grammys-2016-new-artist/.
 


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 17, 2015, 03:58:05 PM
One of the popular topics regarding US Presidential Election is How much will Donald Trump's campaign cost? In August this year Trump said he's prepared to spend $1 billion on his campaign if necessary, and he does not have to worry about pleasing lobbyists like other candidates because his race is self-funded.

Still, MSNBC's Ari Melber reported in October that Trump has only spent about $2 million till that moment on his campaign, and that it is far less than his top-tier rivals on both sides of the aisle:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQm1GVzUcAEtZK9.png

So, what do you think total of Trump's campaign costs will be? And this includes spendings on both his primaries and general election campaigns. It will surely be far from that $1 billion but will it stay under $25 million or be much bigger, even more than $150 milllion? Find your odds on seven different options here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/how-much-will-donald-trumps-campaign-cost-1/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 18, 2015, 01:59:35 PM
It is almost certain that Leo Messi will win the FIFA Ballon d'Or award for the best football player of the year, so now the only question is can he add to it FIFA Puskas Award as well. This award is given to the player who have scored the most aesthetically significant, or "most beautiful", goal of the year.

That one Leo Messi scored against Athletic Bilbao is a thing of a beauty and he is surely the biggest favorite but two others left in competition are also superb. One is Alessandro Florenzi from Roma who scored it against Barcelona and other one Brazilian Wendell Lira.

Anyway, you can watch and vote for all the three goals HERE (http://www.fifa.com/ballon-dor/puskas-award/) but what is more important, you can place your bets at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/fifa-puskas-award-winner/. FIFA Ballon d’Or 2015 Gala will be held on 11 January next year.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 21, 2015, 02:52:49 PM
Donald Trump is still a trending topic when it comes to the 2016 US Presidential Election. You already have open markets How much will Trump's campaign cost? (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/how-much-will-donald-trumps-campaign-cost-1/) and Will Trump to be a third party presidential candidate in 2016? (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/donald-trump-to-be-a-third-party-presidential-candidate-in-2016/), but now you have another market on whether people will actually trust him.

In US Presidential Election markets (https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/us-presidential-election/all/) you can bet that he will be next President, that he will be Republican nominee, or even that he will win Iowa Caucus or New Hampshire Primary but now you can make even better bet by answering the questions Will Donald Trump win any Republican primaries or caucuses?

At the moment, at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-trump-win-any-republican-primaries-or-caucuses/ Trump has rather high chances to do this but a lot of people think that if he doesn't win Iowa Caucus or New Hampshire Primary, he will hardly win any after that. If you have that opinion as well, then you have great offer at the moment. And, of course, like always, you can suggest other markets that you would like to bet on.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 23, 2015, 12:36:03 PM
After the Spanish general election was held on Sunday, trending topic in European politics these days is Who will be the next Spanish prime minister? At the moment, marathon political talks are expected before government can be formed but leftwing parties’ balance of power puts current prime minister Mariano Rajoy’s future in doubt.

Mariano Rajoy, leader of the the conservative People’s party, is still the first option for the next PM but without such a big chances as he had before Sunday. Especially as a Socialist-led coalition is shaping up to be the most likely to rule Spain. And with this Spain’s Socialist party leader Pedro Sanchez has good chances to become the next prime minister.

At Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-be-the-next-spanish-prime-minister/ you have great odds if you think a third person will be the next PM of Spain. Also, Anti-austerity party Podemos said it would block any attempt by Rajoy to form a government. But Ciudadanos’s leader, Albert Rivera, said his party would abstain from the confidence vote to allow the PP to form a minority government.

All in all, in the coming weeks King Felipe VI will reach out to all parties to hear their positions and name the party that will have the chance to try and form a government. If the candidate fails to obtain an absolute majority, the king must put forward a new candidate. If no government is formed within two months, new elections must be held.

So, what is you opinion and who do you favor to the be the next Spanish prime minister?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 05, 2016, 04:49:39 PM
Rahm Emanuel to resign as Chicago mayor by April 15 – YES or NO?

On November 24, agruesome video of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald's fatal shooting at the hands of a Chicago police officer was released by the city’s police department on, more than a year after the shooting took place. Ever since then it was a trending topic, as well with the calls for the resignation of Rahm Emanuel, the Chicago mayor and former Obama chief of staff.

And, in late December, protesting intensified after officers fatally shot a man and a woman, one of whom is believed to have been mentally ill, in the city’s West Side. So much that Mayor Rahm Emanuel cut short a family vacation this past week and returned to a city in crisis with people who share opinions like: “Oh, it’s personal, all right. We’re making it personal.”

The protests reflect frustration with chronic problems Emanuel inherited in Chicago, a city long plagued by police brutality, failing schools, rampant gang violence and dire ­finances. But as Emanuel enters his second term, critics say he has deepened distrust in City Hall through a string of scandals affecting his administration, a lack of transparency and his abrasive personal style.

Although Emanuel built a reputation in Washington as a crisis manager and consummate fixer for two presidents, critics and friends alike say it remains unclear how, or whether, he will be able to fix this crisis. So, do you believe that Rahm Emanuel will resign as Chicago mayor by April 15? If you believe that this will happen, you have great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/rahm-emanuel-to-resign-as-chicago-mayor-by-april-15/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 06, 2016, 05:22:11 PM
Guns N' Roses to play at Reading / Leeds 2016 Festival – YES OR NO?

First big music news in 2016 is the confirmation of the Guns N’ Roses Reunion as Axl Rose, Slash and Duff McKagan will play together at the Coachella Music & Arts Festival in April. We still lack more details about this reunion between Axl Rose, and Slash and McKagan who exited the band in 1993 but it surely a great news.

With this, there is a lot of speculation what will happen after Coachella and will they perform as well on some other Festivals. For now, the biggest chance for their Europe Reunion to happen is at Reading / Leeds Festival in August and thus you can now place your bets at Fairlay if you think they will actually perform there:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/guns-n-roses-to-play-at-reading-leeds-2016-festival/.


Guns N' Roses to play at Wembley before end of 2017 – YES OR NO?

There are also speculations that Axl and Slash could even go to the studio to record some new tracks and thus is would be a complete reunion. Still, we don’t now if they even talked with each other yet or this reunion was arranged by an army of lawyers and managers.

Anyway, if this reunion is a real thing and not a one-time gig (like Led Zeppelin did in 2007 and never after), they could easily follow with some studio work, more festivals and even a huge concert at Wembley. So, if you think that Guns N' Roses will play at Wembley before end of 2017 you can find great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/guns-n-roses-to-play-at-wembley-before-end-of-2017/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 08, 2016, 06:17:04 PM
To win the 2016 Nobel Prize in Literature – Murakami or someone else?

For the last few year, Japanese writer Haruki Murakami was the biggest favorite to win the Nobel Prize in Literature but he never won in. This October we will get new Nobel literature laureate and popular Murami is once again the biggest favorite.

But once again he could be skipped and for the time being second favorite is a Kenyan writer Ngugi Wa Thiong'o, while good chances are also given to an America writer Joyce Carol Oates. And if you don’t trust in any of them, odds on authors like Philip Roth, Adunis, Ismail Kadare, Jon Fosse, or any other you can find at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/to-win-the-2016-nobel-prize-in-literature/


To win the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize – is it time for Angela Merkel?

Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, whole European Union in 2012, Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet last year but now we have the question who will win it this year? At the moment most people think that it should be Angela Merkel and there is no need to say why would she need to win it.

But if you don’t think that Merkel will become Nobel laureate, then the second favorite is a global civil society coalition International Campaign To Abolish Nuclear Weapons. It is followed by Pope Francis and if you have some other favorites, then you can find all the odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/to-win-the-2016-nobel-peace-prize/


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 11, 2016, 03:57:49 PM
Dilma Rousseff to remain president of Brazil through 2016 – YES OR NO?

In 2011 Dilma Rousseff became Brazil’s first female president but less than five years later she is becoming the most hated president in Brazil's history. In the last few months thousands of protesters took to the streets across Brazil as at the same time Dilma's government struggles to lift the economy from its most severe crisis in decades.

Last week economists forcasted that Brazil heads for the worst recession since 1901, as Latin America’s largest economy could shrink 2.95 percent this year. So Brazil’s policy makers are struggling to control the fastest inflation in 12 years without further hamstringing a weak economy, and New Finance Minister didn't change much since December.

With all of this there is no doubt that protesters will continue to demand the ouster of President Dilma Rousseff. She already faces impeachment proceedings but they could drag for months so at the moment she is still slightly favored to survive (the next presidential election is in 2018) so if you are against her (or for her) you can find good odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/dilma-rousseff-to-remain-president-of-brazil-through-2016/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 12, 2016, 06:59:35 PM
House Of Cards – To be the Next President

Two days ago, we got the TRAILER (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvGL42rywPM) for the last season of the “House of Cards” TV series and with it we cannot wait anymore for the new season to be released on the Netflix. Actually, we have to wait, as we will get our new 13 episodes on March 4, 2016. But at least, we will get them all at once and as soon as possible we will know who will be the Next President.

“They say we get the leaders we deserve, I think America deserves Frank Underwood. And in your heart, you know I'm right,“ says Frank Underwood (played by Kevin Spacey) at the end of that last trailer and he is really the main favorite for the Next President. But this great series gave us some exciting twists so could someone else as the Next President be the new one?

Could Clare Underwood make her revenge in the best way possible, or could the Next President be Hector Mendoza who is potential Republican candidate and thus second favorite at the moment. Democratic candidate is Heather Dunbar and you also have great odds for other options if you think huge surprise is possible. It is fiction but superb fiction so bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/house-of-cards-to-be-the-next-president-1/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 13, 2016, 07:30:08 PM
Donald Trump to win the first four states – Is it really possible?

Few weeks ago, we were discussing will Donald Trump win any Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses, and now people are already talking how many will he win. Even before there was opinion that everything is possible if Donald Trump opens with the win in Iowa, or even follows it with another one in New Hampshire.

Thus, you now have new Donald Trump market and you have great odds if you believe in him. It is about Trump winning the presidential primaries and caucuses in the first four states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. Can he really do it, or is everyone exaggerating his chances? We will find out in February, and until then bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/donald-trump-to-win-first-four-states/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 15, 2016, 02:19:28 PM
Razzies – Who are the biggest movie losers of the year?

The 88th Academy Awards ceremony will on February 28, 2016 honor the best films of 2015 and with the recent nominations Oscars are trending topic but right now we are interested February 27 – Oscar eve. That is the date when the 36th Golden Raspberry Awards will be held, awards that nobody wants to win as they honor the worst the film industry had to offer in the previous year.

Two days ago we got this year’s nominations revealed and all five films up for Worst Picture at this year's Awards are big budget productions that have no excuse for being among the year's "berry" worst. Still, they are there and you have an open market which movie will get Award for Worst Picture. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, Fifty Shades of Grey, Fantastic Four, Pixels, or Jupiter Ascending? Bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/razzies-worst-picture/.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 is so horrible that is not only the first favorite for the Worst Picture but its Kevin James is also the main favorite for the Worst Actor Award. But it won't be an easy job for him to win it as some other popular actors are nominated as well: Adam Sandler for two movies (The Cobbler and Pixels), Johnny Depp for Mortdecai, and Jamie Dornan for Fifty Shades of Grey, and Channing Tatum for Jupiter Ascending. Who do you prefer? Bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/razzies-worst-actor/.

Yes, you are right. Fifty Shades of Grey was so awful that it also got nomination for the Worst Actress Award but Dakota Johnson is a second favorite at the moment, as Katherine Heigl for Home Sweet Hell has the biggest chances. Other nominations are popular and beautiful Jennifer Lopez for The Boy Next Door, Mila Kunis for Jupiter Ascending, and Gwyneth Paltrow for Mortdecai. They were all beautiful but who do you think was the worst? Bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/razzies-worst-actress/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 18, 2016, 06:17:43 PM
2016 Summer Olympics – Who will win most gold medals?

Today we are left with 200 Days more till the start of the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, so it is time to create first market for the main sporting event of this year. As usually, you are free to suggest any markets you would like to see when it comes to the winners of specific sports and disciplines.

For the start, you have the most general market about who will win most gold medals in Rio. After they won 46 gold medals in London 2012, most people think that hardly anyone can compete with the USA Olympic Team, so it is not surprise that the United States are the first favorite to win most gold medals.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZAk2I2WEAAS2sM.jpg

Still, with 38 gold medals won in London, China Olympic Team is the one who could make a surprise winning most gold. They already did that at domestic Olympics in Beijing 2008 when they won 51 gold medals. They are second favorite, while there is almost no chances that any other country, even Russia or United Kingdom, could threaten USA and China.

All in all, with the respect to all the other countries, in the end it could be close battle between USA and China, and if you have your opinion who will be the winning nation at 2016 Olympics, you can already find your odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/country-to-win-most-gold-medals/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 19, 2016, 06:30:58 PM
BAFTAs 2016 – Will ‘The Revenant’ be the big winner?

Two weeks before Oscars we will have another movie awards introduction with the 69th British Academy Film Awards, more commonly known as the BAFTAs. The nominees were announced ten days ago, with ‘Bridge of Spies’ and ‘Carol’ both having the most nominations at nine each. But there is only one question, will ‘The Revenant’ be the big winner?

http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/1024/mcs/media/images/80479000/jpg/_80479216_80479215.jpg

BAFTAs 2016 - Best Film
 
But though it could win it, ‘The Revenant’ is not the first favorite for the Best Film of the year, as the biggest chances are given to the ‘Spotlight’. Still, it means that you have better odds if you bet on ‘The Revenant’, while also great ones if you believe that ‘The Big Short’, ‘Bridge of Spies’, or even ‘Carol’. You have your favorite so bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/baftas-2016-best-film/


BAFTAs 2016 - Best Director

As for the Best Director award, the first favorite is Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu with ‘The Revenant’, while the second one is Ridley Scott with ‘The Martian’. Adam McKay for ‘The Big Short’ has solid chances, while you have superb odds if you think Steven Spielberg for ‘Bridge of Spies’, or Todd Haynes for ‘Carol’ could win it. So bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/baftas-2016-best-director/

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/QRfj1VCg16Y/maxresdefault.jpg

BAFTAs 2016 - Best Actor

You have also great odds, if you think that the award for the Best Actor could go for anyone who is not Leonardo DiCaprio (‘The Revenant’). Other nominations are Eddie Redmayne (‘The Danish Girl’), Michael Fassbender ( ‘Steve Jobs’), Matt Damon (‘The Martian’), and Bryan Cranston (‘Trumbo’), all with the huge odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/baftas-2016-best-actor/


BAFTAs 2016 - Best Actress

A bit more interesting are nominations for the Best Actress, though Brie Larson is rather favorite for her role in the ‘Room’, while she is followed with the young Saoirse Ronan for the lead role in ‘Brooklyn’. And if you trust Cate Blanchett (‘Carol’), Alicia Vikander (‘The Danish Girl’), or Maggie Smith (‘The Lady in the Van’) find your odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/baftas-2016-best-actress/


All in all, when it comes to the movies awards, February is all but boring, and you also have enough time to watch the movies and give your opinions on these or similar markets that could be created. So which one would you like to see?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: luckyboys on January 19, 2016, 10:51:57 PM
Assuming that bitcoin remains the most popular token to run the blockchain and transaction volumes continue to rise, the next few years should be spectacular for the price of bitcoin.

While 2015 was a relatively calm year for the price, it seems likely that 2016 will be much more action-packed with the block halving next summer, where the amount of bitcoins awarded to miners roughly every 10 minutes will be cut in half.

We’ve laid down the tracks so to speak, allowing for there to be more confidence than ever before that bitcoin is, and can continue to be, a credible store of value.

With this in mind, I’ve decided to offer another price prediction for next year since I had some luck for this year. I believe bitcoin will surpass $500 by the middle of the year and average out to a $650 price range in the second half of the year.

Of course, there are too many unknown factors when predicting price to know with any certainty, but the maturing infrastructure has lead me to believe that next year will be an exciting one for investors.

Still, many of bitcoin’s best days come in reaction to world crises in places like Greece, China, and Argentina, meaning at the end of the day, there's no predicting where the price could go.

As we continue to patch up leaks in the global economy’s sinking ship, I have to wonder will 2016 also be the year we are reminded of why Satoshi created bitcoin in the first place.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 20, 2016, 07:11:53 PM
As we continue to patch up leaks in the global economy’s sinking ship, I have to wonder will 2016 also be the year we are reminded of why Satoshi created bitcoin in the first place.

Yes, you are so right. With all of this and few more interesting Bitcoin projects, this is surely gonna be an important year. Thus, through the time, you will have different markets in connection with the trending topic in the Bitcoin community.


And, as for the time being, with the nominations, you also have once again all the main six Oscars markets so you can now find even better odds. No matter if you trust in DiCaprio or Spotlight, or even movies like Room or Brooklyn, you can find something you would like to bet on at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/oscars/all/

But to be honest, after watching all the movies, Leonardo DiCaprio and Brie Larson are the main favorites for reason, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu as director as well, though the Best Picture category is far from sure. So, what are you opinions on Oscars, and would you like to see some other Oscars markets as well?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 25, 2016, 02:02:11 PM
Iowa caucuses - 7 days to go, Who will win them?

We are seven days away from the start of the long season of the US Presidential Election primaries and caucuses, both for the Republicans and Democrats. And it all starts in Iowa next Monday with the caucuses for both parties, that will be followed by the primaries in New Hampshire. But who will win them and thus make a great start, considering the influence of the opening results?

Few months ago it was a huge question who has chances among Republicans but how time easily changes a lot of that, shows the fact that today Donald Trump is by far the first favorite with only Ted Cruz having chances to defeat him in Iowa. Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson are almost without any chances so the only question at the moment is do you or do you not trust Trump. And then bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-iowa-republican-caucus/.

And for all of you who trust (or do not) Donald Trump you still have an open market if he will win the first four states that you can find here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-iowa-republican-caucus/.

When it comes to the results of Democrats in Iowa, things didn't change as much in the previous months, so it is still a tight race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, with others being just formal candidates. Though Sanders' chances are raising a bit, Clinton is still the first favorite but no matter which one of them you support, you have rather strong odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-iowa-democratic-caucus/.

Anyway, we are heading towards some interesting weeks so you can also propose other markets that you would like to see.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 26, 2016, 06:38:46 PM
Price of Crude Oil – Which trend will it follow?

One of the recent trending topics is that about the price of the crude oil that has been going down for the last year and a half, but even more in the last few weeks. From 37.28 USD/bbl. at the end of the year down to the 27.88 USD/bbl. on January 20. After going up to 32.18, it is currently at 30.50 so it is interesting to see which trend will it follow.

Currently, there is a talk about the six factors that will determine price of oil in 2016, from US production rates to OPEC’s inscrutable strategy. Also production and consumption of Saudi Arabia, Iran, China, and Russian should influence a lot. So it is still a big question will the price be able to stay in the $20 range that is considered to be inexpensive.

Price of Crude Oil to be Under $30.50 on April 1 – Bet at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/price-of-crude-oil-to-be-under-30-50-on-april-1/.

So, now you have an open market to predict will the price of crude oil be under or over $30.50 on April 1. So considering which trend and factors you believe in, you have good odds if you place your bets right now.

End of the year price of Crude Oil, in which range will it be – Bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-crude-oil/.

So, at the moment it looks like the price at the end of the year should stay in the range of $25 - 49.99, but for you who think that it could go even lower you have great odds for the end of the year price of under $25, or for any above $50, especially those over $75, though it is hard to believe that price of oil could go back so easily. But, with oil you never know. Or, do you?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 27, 2016, 03:31:00 PM
Michael Bloomberg to run for a president – Could this really happen?

Few months ago there were talks that Donald Trump would run as a third party candidate if he doesn't get Republican nominations and thus would (taking away his votes from the Republicans) help Democrats win the Presidential election. But, with Trump getting more popular, things have changed and now we could get a similar situation on the other side.

In the recent weeks talks started that Michael Bloomberg (business magnate, politician, and philanthropist) could run for a president and thus take the votes away from the Democratic candidate. It is possibly true that with this talks he wants to make Democrats to choose Hilary Clinton instead of Bernie Sanders in the following primaries.

So, if Trump starts to win Republican primaries and Sanders makes a surprise against Hilary, there are rather good chances that Michael Bloomberg could run for a president and maybe even decide the following elections in Trump's favor. With those unknowns, chances that he would run are still rather small but those who believe in that have great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/michael-bloomberg-to-run-for-a-president/

Anyway, recent reports connected with his friends say that he will decide on presidential run in the first week of March so you have few weeks more to analyze this and place a bet. Till then, you can also suggest what kinds of markets you would like to see in the future, or give your opinion on the Presidential Election markets already created HERE (https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/us-presidential-election/all/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 01, 2016, 03:50:00 PM
Will Puerto Rico go bankrupt in 2016?

As Puerto Rico faces more than $400 million in debt service due in May and another $1.9 billion due in July, Senate Democrats sent two days ago a united message to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: Allow Puerto Rico to declare bankruptcy on its massive $72 billion debt.

“We urge you to commit to working with us to swiftly enact legislation to give Puerto Rico access to appropriate restructuring tools,” said a letter to McConnell that was signed by all 44 Senate Democrats and two independents -- Maine’s Angus King and presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders. This is the only way Puerto Rico can avert a “growing financial and social catastrophe,” the group’s letter warned.

So, once again we have an open discussion about bankruptcy of Puerto Rico, though on the Senate side, McConnell has been silent, thus ignoring the near total economic collapse of a territory with 3.5 million U.S. citizens. Still, chances for Puerto Rico to bankrupt in 2016 are getting bigger and now you have an open market on Fairlay as well:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/puerto-rico-to-bankrupt-in-2016/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 02, 2016, 02:45:18 PM
New Hampshire primaries – Trump and Sanders or another surprise?

Okay, Trump lost Iowa but what now? A lot of people think that losing to Ted Cruz could even favor Trump in the long run as having strong Cruz will help him deal more easily with Marco Rubio later on. But what about Rubio? He was strong third in Iowa, stronger than anyone thought, and even earlier he was given solid chances in New Hampshire.

So, New Hampshire should once again confirm Rubio as a strong candidate for the Republican nomination but is he able to win it? His chances are much bigger than Cruz’s but Trump is still a strong first favorite. But Trump was also strong favorite in Iowa and he lost it so… What are your opinions on New Hampshire primaries? Find current odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-hampshire-republican-primary/
 
When it comes to Democrats, it is almost sure that Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire as it is one of his home turfs, as he is only stronger in his own Vermont. But Iowa is also considered one of his home turfs and he was still even with Hillary, so could Hillary make a huge surprise and defeat him in New Hampshire? You have great odds for that at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-hampshire-democratic-primary/

All in all, it is getting more and more interesting and February 9 and New Hampshire primaries couldn’t be more closer.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 05, 2016, 12:41:57 PM
First of Joey's friends to appear on Top Gear – Who will it be?

It was announced yesterday that Matt LeBlanc is confirmed as another presenter on 'New' Top Gear. 'New' as nothing will be same after Jeremy Clarkson so for the most this change showed that this show will never be as popular as it was.

Still, we all know Matt LeBlanc as Joey Tribbiani from 'Friends' and thus we love him as well. And it will be interesting to see will LeBlanc have any of Joey's friends as the guest in Top Gear this year. Or maybe all of them, or still none of them?

It wouldn't be a surprise to see him and Chandler (Matthew Perry) driving in the same car, neither would it be strange to see Ross (David Schwimmer) with them, thus male friends have best odds to be guest at market you can bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/top-gear/all/

But Rachel (Jennifer Aniston) would be such a great guest, Monica as well (Courteney Cox), while Phoebe (Lisa Kudrow) is offered least chances to be his first 'Friends' guest, so thus you have great odds if you bet on her. Don't miss them.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 08, 2016, 05:32:58 PM
Can either Republicans or Democrats control both Congress and the White House after the elections?

As we think about short-term markets that are popular these days with all the primaries, here are two markets that could be interesting in the long run. It is about either Party gaining the undivided government, by taking control of both Congress and the White House after the 2016 elections. Could this really happen?

At the moment there are bigger chances that Republicans could have the undivided government as they currently hold the Senate majority with 54 seats, while more and more people see Trump as the next President. Still, even if he wins, they could lose the Senate, but it if you believe that Republicans will gain all the control you have great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republicans-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections/.

At the same time, odds are even bigger for Democrats to control both Congress and the White House after the elections, even with Hillary Clinton still having the biggest chances to become the next President, but at the same time Democrats should also have to regain Senate majority. If you think that this is possible, then bet at Fairlay right this moment:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democrats-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 09, 2016, 05:42:17 PM
The Jump – Who will win it, or will everyone get injured?

Third series of the British television winter sports show ‘The Jump’ started at the last day of January but it is gaining more and more attention from day to day, for not so popular reasons. In fact, today was announced that Made In Chelsea's Mark-Francis Vandelli has become fourth celebrity to leave Channel 4’s ‘The Jump’ after fracturing his ankle.

He joins a long list of injured celebrities forced to pull out the winter sports show. Competitor Beth Tweddle remains in hospital following neck surgery, while Fellow Olympian Rebecca Adlington and Holby City actress Tina Hobley have also withdrawn because of injury, with athlete Linford Christie has been forced to take time out due to a hamstring injury but hopes to return to the show.

Anyway, even with Channel 4 confirming that they will review safety procedures on the show, this series that follows celebrities as they try to master various winter sports including skeleton, bobsleigh, speed skating, ski cross and giant slalom will air weekly until 6 March 2016 and now you can bet on its winner at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-jump-winner/.

At the moment, the first favorite is Tom Parker, The Wanted singer, while good chances are also given to Dean Cain, Lois & Clark actor. Tamara Beckwith is the first favorite among the ladies and she is followed by Sid Owen, EastEnders actor and singer. Anyway, with more potential injuries, anyone could win it so be quick to place your bets as you still have the great odds on your favorites.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 10, 2016, 05:59:41 PM
South Carolina Republican primary – Trump or Cruz?

Donald Trump easily won New Hampshire, without the strong runner-up, so we already have the question whether any alternative candidate can gain enough support to threaten Trump’s drive to the nomination.

Ten days before the new primaries, it is already clear that John Kasich, the second-place finisher in New Hampshire, arrives in more conservative South Caroline with both little staff or support, so he is without chances to attack Trump.

In fact, the only person who could defeat Trump in South Carolina is Iowa winner Ted Cruz who will be resuming an effort to enlist the Christian right, the key to his victory in Iowa. Still it is a big question will that help him enough.

So, Trump is once again big favorite so you might want to catch good odds on him early on, while you have strong odds if you think that Ted Cruz could defeat him once again, also you have great odds on all the other candidates together.

Bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-carolina-republican-primary/.


South Carolina Democratic primary – An easy win for Hillary?

As it was expected, Bernie Sanders won the New Hampshire with 60% of votes but it will be much harder for him to do the same thing in South Carolina. In these primaries it is Hillary Clinton with big chances that should boost her up.

It is because of the fact that Sanders’s idealistic message, which inspired a decisive victory in New Hampshire, faces a sharp test in South Carolina, where Democrats are more moderate and demographically diverse, so it will help Hillary.

But if you think that Sanders could make a surprise you can go for great odds at Fairlay, or just pick-up an easy money on Hillary. Anyway, even odds on that easy money are about to change so place your markets right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-carolina-democratic-primary/.

What are your opinions on the current primaries and what do you think who has the biggest chances in the long run?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 12, 2016, 03:05:26 PM
Nevada Republican Caucus – Another in a row for Trump?

Before coming to Nevada on February 23, Republicans will first square off to South Carolina on February 20, and in a way those results could influence Nevada votes, so you can first see at South Carolina market who is favorite to win it:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-carolina-republican-primary/

Of course, Donald Trump is a huge favorite to win South Carolina, while some chances are given to Ted Cruz as well. And it is not much different for the Nevada markets, though bigger chances are give to Cruz, and also some for Marco Rubio.

But Nevada could be a country with big surprises and the main reason is the limited number of polls in this state. Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, where there were 70 to 100 polls, there were only six polls last year and none this in Nevada.

That last pool did favor Trump but either Cruz or Rubio could make a surprise win in Nevada so if you want to risk, this is market for you. If you want to bet on Trump once again, then hurry up as odds will surely go down once again.

Nevada Republican Caucus – Bet at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-2016-nevada-republican-caucus/


Nevada Democratic Caucus – Hillary to confirm her control?

So, without too many pools, Nevada Caucus could bring a surprise among Democrats as well. Though, chances for this are a bit less than it is with Republicans, as the the last poll showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Bernie Sanders by 23 points.

Unlike Republicans, Nevada Caucus comes for Democrats on February 20, seven days before South Carolina primaries, so they are in a way more important, as they could confirm that Hillary is much bigger favorite than it was shown at first.

As for Sanders, he is yet to demonstrate strength in a state whose electorate isn’t more than 90 percent white. Only 65 percent of voters were white in the 2008 Democratic caucus in Nevada, so with this Hillary could be a rather good bet.

Nevada Democratic Caucus – Bet at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-2016-nevada-democratic-caucus/


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 14, 2016, 09:52:39 AM
Will AlphaGo be able to defeat Lee Sedol in March Go match?

It was way back in 1997 that IBM’s Deep Blue computer defeated Gary Kasparov, who at that time was world chess champion. But almost 20 years later it will still be a huge challenge for the computer to defeat the world’s top Go player.

But, earlier this month, Google's AI company DeepMind announced that it had built a system of networks capable of beating a champion Go player. In fact, this computer named AlphaGo already defeated game's European champion.

http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/wiredscience/2012/04/go-660x365.jpg

Still, the big match is scheduled for March 9th-15th when it will take on the Go world No 1, South Korean Lee Se-dol, in a live broadcast from Seoul, South Korea. The contest also offers a $1m prize and five games will be played.

So, now you have markets created for this interesting event, and at the moment Lee Se-dol is still a small favorite but AlphaGo’s chances are also rather big, something like IBM’s Deep Blue had against Kasparov first time they played.

All in all, this could be the last human vs technology battle when it comes to board games, unless Lee Se-dol prevails. And if it is already not interesting enough, YouTube will be live streaming the series of games. Before this, bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-march-go-match/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: Anthony.R.Brown on February 15, 2016, 09:18:23 PM
The A.R.B GO System + AlphaGo v Lee Sedol - Seoul 2016 - Prediction

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MabOjRtU0kA


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 16, 2016, 02:58:21 PM
Will Bitcoin Classic be adopted by April 1, 2017?

After subsequent fall of Bitcoin XT, the release of Bitcoin Classic has recently become the trending topic in Bitcoin community. It is another hard-fork of the bitcoin cryptocurrency aiming to increase the transaction processing capacity of Bitcoin by increasing its block size limit.

It is similar to the Bitcoin XT fork, though less aggressive as Bitcoin Classic promotes a single increase of the maximum block size from 1MB to 2MB, which has not achieved consensus. So the question asked by everyone at the moment will Bitcoin Classic be able to achieve it.

Bitcoin Classic is so far endorsed by a group of developers and companies that have in total around 30 percent of hash power but it is questionable can they go up to 75 percent in order activate a 2MB block size limit increase. They started well but most think that their chances are small.

Because of this, you now have open 'Will Bitcoin Classic be adopted by April 1, 2017?' market with enough time for Bitcoin Classic to become a real think and for Bitcoin to finally have its block size limit increase. And odds for this are great so if you believe in it, bet right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bitcoin-classic-be-adopted-by-april-1-2017/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 17, 2016, 04:11:59 PM
The Voice UK 2016 – Who will be the Winner and who the Winning Manager?

On January 9, the fifth series of The Voice UK, a British television music competition to find new singing talent, began airing on BBC One, and they already announced that it will be the last to be aired on it before it is moved to ITV. As usually, the winner of The Voice UK receives fame, £100,000 and a record deal with Universal Republic.

Once again, this show won’t be only about its competitors but also about its coaches and for the series 5 those coaches are Ricky Wilson, Paloma Faith, Boy George, and will.i.am. If you are fan of this show you perhaps already have your favorite coach and you can bet right now for the 'The Voice UK 2016 - Winning Manager’ at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-voice-uk-2016-winning-manager/.

But there are only four coaches, though they are with almost same chances to win in the end, but it is even bigger task to find and bet on the right winner of the show, before odds get lower on it. They are still going through blind auditions but after six episodes there is the first favorite Kevin Simm whose 'Chandelier' already has a 1.5m YouTube views.

Second favorite is Cody Frost who on the first auditions performed ‘Lay All Your Love On Me’ that also went over 1m YouTube views, and then she is followed by Jolan who won hearts with ‘Wishing Well’ last week. Anyway, there is still a lot of the battles on The Voice UK series 5 but you should already put bets on your favorite at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-voice-uk-2016-winner/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 19, 2016, 03:45:20 PM
Super Tuesday – Who will drop out before it?

Republicans came into the primaries with huge number of 17 candidates, though five of them dropped out of the race before the voting started. They were followed by five more after the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and so the following question is who will drop out next, or, as it is put in the market, before Super Tuesday scheduled for March 1?

It is sure that Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio will stay in the race to the end as they all hope to get the Republican nomination, while Jim Gilmore is that one person who won't drop out soon even if he doesn't get any votes. So, this leaves us with John Kasich, Jeb Bush, and Ben Carson, all in question to drop after South Carolina and Nevada.

John Kasich would maybe already drop out if he didn’t gain some momentum after his great second-place finish in New Hampshire. Still, he will hardly be even among the first four in South Carolina and then that New Hampshire momentum won’t be such a big thing. But he said he would stay in the race for long and thus chances for him to drop out before Super Tuesday are still rather small, so you have great odds at Fairlay if you think he will drop out before that:

John Kasich to drop out before Super Tuesday: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/john-kasich-to-drop-out-before-super-tuesday/.

At the same time, things are much worse for Jeb Bush. He has more money for his campaign than Kasich but will hardly stay in the race as his campaign has gotten less bang for its buck than any campaign in history, spending more than $100 million in advertising just to get a combined 14 percent of the vote in Iowa or New Hampshire. So if he doesn’t get great result is South Carolina, chances are really strong that he will drop out of the race, so you can bet now on it at Fairlay:

Jeb Bush to drop out before Super Tuesday : https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jeb-bush-to-drop-out-before-super-tuesday/.

Somewhere between Kasich and Bush is Ben Carson, though at the moment he is favored to drop as well before the Super Tuesday. His chances for winning nomination are already low so he already needs to exceed expectations in South Carolina to stay in the race, and he even hopes to win it. But even with losing badly in South Carolina, it’s not clear what Carson’s end game is, and that makes it increasingly hard to predict it, so if you know better use that and bet at Fairlay:

Ben Carson to drop out before Super Tuesday: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ben-carson-to-drop-out-before-super-tuesday/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 21, 2016, 01:19:18 PM
EU Referendum – Will the UK vote to stay in the EU?

After renegotiations on the UK's relationship with Europe were finalized on Friday, the UK Prime Minister David Cameron didn’t wait long as he yesterday made his historic announcement in Downing Street. So, get ready as the UK will vote on whether to remain in the EU will be made on Thursday 23 June.

How important this voting could be is best said by Mr Cameron who right away described the vote as one of the biggest decisions "in our lifetimes". Of course, citizens of the UK are those who will be deciding whether they will stay in the EU or leave it, but all the world will be eager to see what will happen in four months.

Now you have an open market in which odds are still in favor of the UK staying in the EU, as David Cameron said he would be campaigning to remain in a reformed EU, but Ministers immediately divided up into the leave and remain camps as the campaigns got under way in earnest.

But, though odds are in favor of staying, the British public are (according to the latest opinion polls) fairly evenly split, so chances that the UK could leave the EU this summer are even bigger than the first odds show. Anyway, there are going to be campaigns for both Britain's staying and exit from the EU but you can already bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-uk-vote-to-stay-in-the-eu/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 22, 2016, 05:12:00 PM
Apple vs FBI – Will Apple be held in contempt before April 1?

Okay, you really had to try a lot in order to miss this ‘fight’ between Apple and FBI that’s been lasting for the last seven days. In fact, since last Tuesday when federal magistrate-judge ruled that Apple must help the FBI break into the locked iPhone 5C of the dead shooter from the San Bernardino shooting that killed 14 people, Syed Farook.

Apple was ordered to create a weaker version of its operating system for this one device, and help the FBI crack Farook's passcode. But Apple said no as its CEO Tim Cook explained that decision in a public letter to his customers:

‘The FBI may use different words to describe this tool, but make no mistake: Building a version of iOS that bypasses security in this way would undeniably create a backdoor. And while the government may argue that its use would be limited to this case, there is no way to guarantee such control.’

At this moment, Apple has until Friday, Feb. 26 to present its legal argument against this order and over time Apple could even take this all the way up the U.S. Supreme Court. But, in the end, if Apple refuses a court order it can be held in contempt of court. Or even its CEO Tim Cook could be held in contempt of court and possibly go to jail.

Still, all this seems rather unlikely at the moment but for those of you still believing that Apple or any of its executives could be held in contempt of court by a federal judge or a magistrate before April 1, you have great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/apple-to-be-held-in-contempt-before-april-1/.


So, what is your opinion on this ‘Apple vs FBI’ topic, do you think that it will soon be finished or do you think that this could be a long fight with many of the potential markets to be created down the road? And are there any specific markets that you would like to see at the moment, with all this attention this topic is getting at the moment?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 23, 2016, 02:08:38 PM
Will Republicans have a brokered convention in 2016?

Donald Trump's first-place finish in South Carolina has revived an ongoing discussion about the possibility of a brokered Republican convention and that discussion is still alive prior to the Nevada Republican caucuses in which Trump is the clear front-runner. And though Trump’s results put some Republicans into a panic it could be too late for a a brokered convention.

However, Trump dismissed the notion of a brokered convention (“I think it’s unlikely. I think I’m doing better than that, and so far, you know, I’m really on my way.”), which would occur if no candidate has the required amount of delegates to secure the nomination. The Republicans would then take the battle to the convention floor to decide on a nominee in July.

So, Republicans having that rare brokered convention this year is still a possibility though this is unlikely if Trump continues to win states by such large margins. But, there is still time for change as a brokered convention will be more likely if Rubio manages to win important states like California, West Virginia and New York and it would suit him the most  due to his establishment status.

Another scenario leading to a possible brokered convention is Cruz winning in Texas on March 1 and Florida later on, and with Bush out of the race, and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus saying on Brokered Convention: 'We're Prepared for Anything', maybe current odds at Fairlay for Republicans to have a brokered convention in 2016 could be a great bet:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-republicans-have-a-brokered-convention-in-2016-1/


So, what is your opinion on this topic, are the Republican party leaders finally taking Trump seriously and will they try to consolidate behind either Rubio or Cruz and thus go towards the brokered convention, or stand behind Trump before National Convention in July? Also, which other US Election markets would you like to see before the following primaries?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 25, 2016, 01:06:07 PM
Texas Republican primary – Will Cruz beat Trump?

Okay, we had primaries in early states and Trump in on a three-state win streak but it is time for a Super Tuesday. A lot of that will be decided on March 1 but in the end the main talk could be only about Texas. One hundred and fifty-five GOP delegates are at stake in this primary, more than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada combined.

But it is not only about the number of delegates in Texas, it is also about it being all or nothing for Ted Cruz as, after winning the Iowa caucuses, the senator has suffered three consecutive third place finishes. And now it is time for his home state of Texas where win is a must. Still, few days before Texas primary he is not such a huge favorite for a win.

Though Ted Cruz is around 6% above Trump on latest opinion pools, some of them see Cruz and Trump as even so a lot could be decided tonight on the Republican presidential debate in Houston. It’s the last meeting for candidates before the Super Tuesday primaries, while CNN returns yet again as the debate host. And Marco Rubio wants to fight as well.

So, tonight we could see a fight between Rubio and Cruz as it is time to decide who of them will go against Trump, while at the same time Trump could back up Rubio in this fight. All in all, it will surely be interesting in Texas, and you already have Fairlay market created with Cruz still having the biggest chances but this also means great odds on Trump:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-texas-republican-primary/.


What are your opinions on this Texas Republican primary, do you think Trump could win even here? Also, what do you think about other Super Tuesday primaries and which one of them would you like to place your bets on?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 26, 2016, 02:52:40 PM
Number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June to be over 240,000 – YES or NO?

After going down to only 160,000 Bitcoin transactions per day at the start of the year, number of transactions has started to grow in the last two months. In fact, in the last weeks it’s been average of 223,000 transactions per day.

So, would do you think will happen in the next few months? Could number of daily Bitcoin transactions easily go above 230,000 or even over 240,000 as there were 246,000 daily transactions yesterday? So, if we take those numbers from the start of the year, it is surely possible that numbers could go higher. But of course, some of you also think that number of those transactions has to stop growing soon with many of those block being already full.

Anyway, you now have an open market on Fairlay on whether the number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June will be over 240,000 so hurry to make your bets as you surely already have your opinion on this market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/number-of-bitcoin-transactions-per-day-in-the-first-week-of-june-to-be-over-240-000/.

And also, what are the other Bitcoin markets that you would like to bet on, with all the actual topics in this community?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 29, 2016, 01:34:56 PM
Super Tuesday in Minnesota – The end for Rubio and Sanders?

Super Tuesday, which is scheduled for tomorrow is the day when a dozen states (and one territory) will hold their nominating contests this year and it has a great importance as the huge number of 661 Republican delegates will be allocated, and also 865 delegates for Democrats. You already had created market for the Texas Republican primary as it is the home country of Ted Cruz so Trump could finally be defeated again, but if you still believe in Trump bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-texas-republican-primary/

Still, out of the Texas Trump will probably swipe all the other countries so he could become unstoppable. And because of this, Minnesota Republican Caucus became really important one. Northern states tend to feature more liberal Republican electorates, so that makes this a prime test of whether Marco Rubio can top Donald Trump across the map. If, Trump easily wins Minnesota as well, that could be it, but, on the other side, Rubio could start a comeback here.

So, a day before Minesota Republican Caucus Donald Trump is till with great chances to win this country as well but solid chances are given to Marco Rubio also, while Ted Cruz will have to be pleased with possible win in Texas. There are a lot of primaries after the Super Tuesday but some of the important Republicans are already getting behind Trump so March 1 in Minnesota could mean a lot to Rubio. No matter who do you trust, bet on this Caucus at Fairlay now:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-minnesota-republican-caucus/

When it comes to Democrats, Super Tuesday in Minnesota will be important as well. This state with a largely white population makes Minnesota exactly the kind of state Bernie Sanders is targeting in his campaign so he has some chances to win and show that he is still in contention. But, at the same time, this could also test the value of his endorsements, since Hillary Clinton has the backing of all the state's powerful Democrats, thus she is favorite to win:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-minnesota-democratic-caucus/

All in all, Super Tuesday will be really interesting as Trump and Clinton could go too far to be caught, or it could finally start to get more interesting, at least in one of the parties. In all of this Minnesota doesn’t have too many delegates but opinions of its population could show a lot. And, do you have any Super Tuesday markets that you would like to bet on, or do you already want to see odds on those primaries that are coming after Super Tuesday, from the next weekend on?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 01, 2016, 03:08:00 PM
Eurovision Song Contest 2016 – Who will be the winner this year?

With all those Super Tuesday markets being resolved today, it is time to get away from the politics a bit as you now have Eurovision markets at offer. It is two and a half months away as it will take place from May 10-14 in Stockholm, Sweden, following Sweden's victory at the 2015 contest. So, did you predict the winner right last year or is this your year to win?

It is important to note that this years contest will also be the first to implement a new voting system, with each country now awarding two sets of points: one from their professional jury and another from televoting. So, could this change a lot as forty-three countries will participate, including even Australia that returns after debuting as a guest in 2015.

At the moment Australia is among the favorites for the win, though not among the biggest ones that include Russia and Poland. Those are followed by the host Sweden and Latvia, and then by Australia. Among favorites for this year winner are also Germany and France but at Fairlay you also have ‘Other’ option to bet on, and it includes all the other countries:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/.

So, are you fan of Eurosong, and (with only few more countries having to confirm artists that will represent them), did you already find your favorites for this year or are you among those who think that voting is only a political thing? Even if that is the way you can find country to bet on, and you can also suggest other entertainment markets to be created.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 02, 2016, 01:52:15 PM
Obama's Next Supreme Court Nominee – Who will it be?

As Super Tuesday was unraveling, President Obama at the same time met with top Senate leaders at the White House to discuss Obama's nomination to fill a Supreme Court vacancy this year, after associate Justice Antonin Scalia was found dead on February 13. But, at it was expected, Senate Republicans said nothing has changed their determination not to give the nominee a hearing as they still think that this appointment should be made by the next president.

But, even after this, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said Obama is moving forward with the process of vetting and nominating a Supreme Court justice. On Monday it was announced that President Obama has already tapped Brian Deese, his senior adviser on energy and environment issues, to oversee the upcoming Supreme Court nomination and there are talks that SCOTUS nomination could even come by the end of this week, or surely in the next following weeks.

So now you have created market about who will be Obama's next Supreme Court nominee and the biggest chances are given to judge Sri Srinivasan as he is a top contender if the President wants a so-called consensus nominee who could peel off enough GOP votes to get past a filibuster. He is followed by Loretta Lynch, former U.S. attorney in New York who has a strong record on civil-rights issues as U.S. attorney general.

There are already talks that Democrats might not want to risk burning Srinivasan on a political fight, so other opinions could also be great bets. One of them is Jacqueline Nguyen who was confirmed to the appellate court, 91-3, in May 2012, potentially making it difficult for Republicans to justify voting against her. Rather favorites are also Ketanji Brown Jackson and Jane Kelly who is, on the other side, one with the lack of a judicial record.

Again, with Senate Republicans not wanting to give nominee even a hearing, options ‘Other’ could be a great bet as it is highly unlikely that Senate will confirm Next Supreme Court Nominee so Obama could step away from the popular names. Anyway, you have plenty options to bet on Fairlay and take in mind that this market resolves to Barack Obama's next formal Supreme Court nominee, whether or not the nomination is successful. Place your bet now at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/obamas-next-supreme-court-nominee/

And, as usual, you can also suggest you own markets about SOTUS nominations. So, would you maybe like to see market about the gender of the next nominee, or will Senate confirm next, or in fact any of the Obama’s SCOTUS nominees?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 03, 2016, 01:09:24 PM
Kansas caucuses – Country for Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders to win?

Super Tuesday is only two days behind us but it is already time for the new primaries and caucuses that will be held on Saturday, March 5, followed by two more on Sunday. Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska should be easy wins for both Trump and Hillary, so Kansas could be the state mostly talked about when the results come back on Saturday.

Recent polls in Kansas showed that Trump and Hillary are favorites for the win but more important were Super Tuesday results in Oklahoma that was won by Sanders and Cruz. Not only are Oklahoma and Kansas neighbors, their populations have a similar racial and socioeconomic makeup, a similar urban/rural split and a relatively similar electoral size.

So, after Sanders and Cruz won in Oklahoma, could this be repeated in Kansas? Sanders has done better in places where there are a lot of white voters and Kansas has a large white population. Kansas' population also has lower income than other countries Hillary won, so this will favor Sanders as well. If you think that will (not) be enough bet at Fairlay:

Kansas Democratic Caucus – https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-kansas-democratic-caucus/.

It is a bit more complicated for the Republicans as both Marco Rubio and Trump were fewer than 10 points behind Cruz in Oklahoma, so small shifts in the electorate this week could change the outcome. Change could also be made by tonight’s Republican debate in Detrorit where Trump will once again be under big attack from both Rubio and Cruz.

Important thing in Cruz’s potential Kansas win could be that the 6 percent of Oklahoma voters who chose Ben Carson could move towards Cruz, another evangelical candidate, now that it's looking more and more as if Carson will be out of the race soon. But, we already now that nothing is sure this year, so you have also good odds on Trump and Rubio:

Kansas Republican Caucus – https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-kansas-republican-caucus/.

What are you opinions on this, and would you like to see some other markets created for this weekend’s primaries? Or do you want to bet at markets that could seal the win for both Trump and Hillary, like those in Florida on March 15?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: arthurminton on March 03, 2016, 02:46:01 PM
it would be nice if you added bitcoin prediction and also some major forex pairs as the layout of your looks good. if you add some major forex pairs that would be nicer of you.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 05, 2016, 12:04:09 PM
Next London Mayor – Khan or Goldsmith?

Exactly two months before the 2016 election for London Mayor, Labour's Sadiq Khan is still the favorite to win the election for London mayor as he has been topping the polls since last summer so media in Britain and world are often asking the question does Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith stand a chance? As all the others candidates do not.

"While Khan has given the impression of covering every angle with know-how and energy, the Goldsmith campaign has, by comparison, looked lethargic and at times ill-judged," says Dave Hill in The Guardian. But, he adds, the outcome is still "hard to foresee with certainty". Because of this Khan is still not a huge favorite and Goldsmith could be a good bet.

"All is not lost for team Goldsmith," says Asa Bennett in the Daily Telegraph. He points out that "Posh Tory" jibes didn't stop David Cameron from winning two general elections, nor Johnson from winning the London mayoralty twice in a row. So, looks like everything is still open and you have two more months to bet at Fairlay on the next London Major:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-london-mayor/.

What are your opinions on the next London Major, and which other UK Politics markets would you like to be created?


it would be nice if you added bitcoin prediction and also some major forex pairs as the layout of your looks good. if you add some major forex pairs that would be nicer of you.

Thanks for your suggestion, will look into it. There were already in the past some markets about Bitcoin price so there will be in the future as well, and maybe on the forex pairs also.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 07, 2016, 02:33:48 PM
Hawaii and Idaho tomorrow – Will Trump lose both of them?

Donald Trump had a bad night on Saturday, losing Kansas and Maine to the doctrinaire Texan, Ted Cruz, and winning Louisiana and Kentucky only narrowly. But it is time for some even more important primaries and looks like Trump will prevail in both Michigan and Mississippi tomorrow but big question is will he at the same time lose Idaho and Hawaii?

After Marco Rubio won Puerto Rico last night, he is also the biggest favorite to win the Hawaii Caucus as there are opinions that he gained a bit of the momentum with that win and that he is part of the establishment that voters in Hawaii like. But, again, Puerto Rico's concerns are very different than Hawaii’s and there could be another ‘Trump factor’ here. Anyway, if you favor Trump, odds on his win here are better than in most countries so bet now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-hawaii-republican-caucus/.

Though, odds on Trump's win are even (though not by a much) bigger in Idaho where Ted Cruz is the first favorite and Marco Rubio almost without any chances, though some think that he could be a dark horse and a huge surprise as he already invested lot of time and resources in Idaho, and visited Idaho three times, more than any other candidate did.

Of course, Cruz is the main favorite after winning Maine and Kansas, as Idaho is also a religious conservative state with high population of Mormons. And in 2012 Romney easily won Idaho so his negative comments towards Trump could also mean a lot. Anyway, Idaho's primary will surely draw a lot of attention tomorrow and you can either favor Cruz or go for Trump or even huge surprise win by Rubio but you surely don't want to miss this market, so bet at Fairlay now:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-idaho-republican-primary/.

So, what are your opinions on the following primaries, and which other election markets would you like to see created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 09, 2016, 09:25:06 AM
AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol – It is 1:0 but who will prevail in the end?

“#AlphaGo WINS!!!! We landed it on the moon. So proud of the team!! Respect to the amazing Lee Sedol too,“ twitted Demis Hassabis, Founder & CEO of DeepMind that had built AlphaGo, a system of networks capable of beating a champion Go player. In fact, this morning AlphaGo defeated legendary Go player Lee Sedol in the first of five historic matches being held in Seoul, South Korea.

“Where were you daddy when humans first surrendered to the machines,“ was another of the tweets as the first match between AlphaGo and Lee Sedol was followed all around the globe this morning (all the matches start at 04.30 AM CET time). But in the end, those cheering for humanity weren’t too lucky as Lee resigned after about three and a half hours, with 28 minutes and 28 seconds remaining on his clock.

http://www.zeit.de/sport/2016-03/go-duell-alphago-computer-sieg/bitblt-820x461-a3e51d71c8dda868e84c15b7e77b675bec3f935b/wide

AlphaGo won the first match and is a big favorite to win this match overall but it did make few mistakes, while Lee Sedol was just too nervous, so the best human player is still with chances to make a comeback. Thus, he is given solid chances to prevail in the second match that is on schedule tomorrow. It will surely be another big fight and you already have markets created for both total and the second match winner:

AlphaGo to defeat Lee Sedol in Match 2:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-match-2/.

AlphaGo to defeat Lee Sedol in March Go match:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-march-go-match-1/.

Who do you support in this popular Go match between AI and humanity, and what are your opinions on the following matches? Also, are there some similar matches for which you would like to see markets being created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 09, 2016, 03:07:47 PM
Florida and Ohio next Tuesday – Will Trump secure nomination by winning both of them?

Another Tuesday and another nice day for Donald Trump who yesterday won Mississippi, Michigan and even Hawaii, losing only Idaho in which Cruz prevailed. So, Trump enjoys Tuesdays and next one could be remembered as Tuesday when he became unstoppable. Super Tuesday was a big step towards nomination, yesterday he almost for sure got rid of Marco Rubio and it is he or Ted Cruz now.

Being unable to win even Hawaii in which he was favorite, Marco Rubio is with poor chances before his home primaries in Florida on March 15. Rubio put a lot in Florida campaign but, as he did almost nothing in countries prior to it, it is almost sure that Trump will win Florida as well and put a sad end to Rubio's campaign. Pools are also in favor of Trump but if you think Rubio could still make a surpirse find great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-florida-republican-primary/

How dominant is Trump shows that on March 15 he could also defeat John Kasich in his home state of Ohio. Kasich’s chances for winning Ohio are also going down from day to day and his chances are already even with those of Trump’s. So, these important winner-take-all primaries in Ohio and Florida on March 15 could determine the fates of both Rubio and Kasich. And if you think that Trump will win Ohio as well you can find good odds at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-ohio-republican-primary/.

So, what is your opinion on Ohio and Florida and what other primaries markets would you like too see created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 10, 2016, 12:33:44 PM
AlphaGo vs Lee Sedol – 2:0 for AI, can humanity make a comeback?

"Yesterday I was surprised but today it's more than that — I am speechless," said Lee Sedol in the post-game press conference, after he once again resigned, in the second of five Go matches that are these days played in Seoul against AlphaGo, the computer created by Google's DeepMind.

In the first match Sedol was nervous but today he almost made no mistake but AlphaGo was still too strong for him. So, after Lee earlier predicted he'd win 5-0 or 4-1 at worst, he now needs to come out on top in all three remaining games whereas AlphaGo could wrap up the series by Saturday when the next match is scheduled.

http://oi63.tinypic.com/2i7vcyq.jpg
Lee this morning literally dropped his jaw for few seconds after the jaw-dropping move by Alpha Go

Fairlay continues to follow this interesting match though it is almost sure that AlphaGo will prevail in the end. But it is the question can Lee win at least one match and could he stop AphaGo in the next one, though today AlphaGo was confident in victory from the midway point of the game.

AlphaGo to defeat Lee Sedol in Match 3:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-match-3/.

AlphaGo to defeat Lee Sedol in March Go match:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/alphago-to-defeat-lee-sedol-in-march-go-match-1/.

So, AplhaGo in a huge favorite to prevail overall but also a big favorite to win the third match of the series as well. But do you think a day rest will help Sedol to find a way to outmaneuver AlphaGo in the next match or is it all done for him?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 14, 2016, 11:46:04 AM
When will Ethereum switch to Proof-of-Stake? May 2017? November 2017? Before, or even later?

Pi day (today, March 14), we get Homestead on mainnet, which is the second major version release of the Ethereum platform, that includes several protocol changes and a networking change which gives its users the ability to do further network upgrades. So, it is another big step for Ethereum after the Ethereum Frontier network launched on July 30 last year and developers began writing smart contracts and decentralized apps to deploy on the live Ethereum network.

After that, next phase in the Ethereum launch process should be Metropolis (that will open gates to the masses) and then really important Serenity phase. It is the last phase and has one key principle - to switch the Ethereum network from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake - essentially reducing the power consumption of the Ethereum network. Protocol used for this is called Casper 'the friendly ghost’ because it is an adaptation of some of the principles of the GHOST (Greedy Heaviest-Observed Sub-Tree) protocol for proof-of-work consensus to proof-of-stake.

https://media.licdn.com/media/p/1/005/0ac/3b2/3c15681.png

Anyway, if you want to read and learn more about Serenity and Casper, then check the Ethereum Blog so you can react better to the following markets regarding Ethereum’s change from Proof-of-Stake to Proof-of-Work. At the moment, it is certain that this change will happen but the date is still unknown. There were talks that it could be this summer but Proof-of-State phase probably won’t be completed before 2017. For those of you who believe it will be soon enough, there is market that Ethereum will switch to it before before May 1, and the second date is November 1 next year.

You can find both of your markets here:

Ethereum to switch to Proof-of-Stake before May 1, 2017:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ethereum-to-switch-to-proof-of-stake-before-may-1-2017/

Ethereum to switch to Proof-of-Stake before November 1, 2017:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ethereum-to-switch-to-proof-of-stake-before-november-1-2017/

So, what is your opinion on this change to Proof-of-Stake, and do you think it will be made soon? Also, which other Ethereum related markets would you like to see created in the future?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 15, 2016, 01:25:11 PM
March Madness – Who will win the NCAA Basketball Championship?

Okay, it is March 15 and it is finally time for the March Madness when we all start to follow NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Tournament. So, find and print your full bracket and enjoy next three weeks following college basketball. At Fairlay you can already find markets for all the opening games and you will be able to find the great odds as well till the final game scheduled for April 4: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/basketball/ncaa/match/.

But, as many of us don't follow college basketball from game to game, we like to place bets on the final winner and follow them from round to round, hopefully to the final. And of course, you can choose from the 68 teams involved. This year the first favorite for the title is team of Kansas Jayhawks which is the NCAA tournament's first overall seed after a 30-4 season and a Big 12 championship win, with offense that has averaged over 80 points per game this season.

Kansas is followed by North Carolina Tar Heels that is No.1 seed in East Region, and then we have Michigan State Spartans which won the Big Ten championship on Sunday before the selection show, so are team in a good form. Virginia Cavaliers and Kentucky Wildcats complete Top 6 favorites per odds but you probably have your own favorite, and considering all the potential surprises, to bet on ‘Other’ would also be a smart option, with great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ncaa-basketball-championship-2016-winner/.

All in all, March Madness starts tonight, so who is your favorite and have you already printed your full bracket?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 16, 2016, 11:12:18 AM
Next for the Republicans – Arizona and Utah on March 22, who will win them?

Another interesting Tuesday is behind us and it looks like everyone can be pleased but Marco Rubio who easily lost to Trump his home state of Florida and because of that decided to get out of the race. With 99 delegates won in Florida, Trump improved his lead ahead of Ted Cruz who was mostly second in countries that held primaries yesterday.

But, at the same time, a big question was opened as Trump lost Ohio to John Kasich who, by prevailing in his home state, probably stopped Trump from gaining Republican nomination before the party's convention in Cleveland. Still, there is enough delegates to be awarded and next Tuesday, March 22, it is time for Arizona primaries and Utah caucuses.

“There is great anger. Believe me, there is great anger,” Donald Trump said last night and because of this he is a huge favorite in Arizona which has a lot of angry and disaffected voters. Cruz's chances improved a bit last night as Rubio got out of the race so his votes should go to Cruz now, so if you think it could be enough for a win bet right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-arizona-republican-primary/.

At the same time, all the demographic analysis show that Utah is horrible state for Trump and Cruz should easily prevail in this one, especially after Rubio is out of the race. So, there is chance that Utah could be another country in which Trump's nomination is stopped but if you think that angry Trump could prevail even here, Fairlay offers you great odds:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-utah-republican-caucus/.

So, what is your opinion on the following primaries, and which other markets would you like to see created soon?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 16, 2016, 06:34:55 PM
Merrick Garland's SCOTUS nomination – Who will prevail, Senate or Obama?

After few weeks of discussion and analysis, President Barack Obama today finally nominated Chief Judge Merrick Garland for the Supreme Court, so now all is set for Obama’s fierce confirmation fight with Senate Republicans. Even with this being election year, this Supreme Court nomination will be widely discussed in the following months.

Garland currently serves as the top judge on the D.C. Circuit, and he's widely admired by Democrats and Republicans but that doesn’t change a lot. At least for now, as Republicans have been clear in prior weeks that they will block Obama's pick, regardless of qualifications, and that was today once again confirmed by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Republicans want the next president to be elected, before they even consider the hearing of the next SCOTUS nominee. So, the long battle between Obama and Senate is in front of us, while today Donald Trump, the Republican frontrunner, quickly backed up Senate Republicans saying they shouldn't give Barack Obama's pick a hearing.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CdrqWP_W4AAVVhJ.jpg

So, Obama will need to convince at least 14 Republican senators to join Democrats to break an inevitable filibuster and at least five Republican senators to vote with Democrats for confirmation - but first somehow convince McConnell to back off from his absolutist position against even giving the nominee a hearing (for the first time since 1875).

All in all, nothing will be decided too soon and this will be a long battle as The White House is hoping to create some movement by this summer, but many expect that this battle will go all the way through November, with Democrats threatening to turn it into a major political issue before the elections so could Republicans give up before it hurts them?

Anyway, this will not only be a trending topic in the following days but also in the following months, so you already have an open market at Fairlay. Will Senate confirm Merrick Garland's SCOTUS nomination is the question, so be quick to place your bet because odds could easily go against your opinion. Find the SCOTUS odds right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-senate-confirm-merrick-garlands-scotus-nomination/.

What is your opinion on this SCOTUS nomination, and what other political markets would you like to see?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 17, 2016, 12:48:48 PM
Can Sanders stay in the race? It is time for Arizona, Idaho and Utah to decide.

After losing all five states two days ago, Sanders is confident better days are ahead of him, and our prediction markets confirm that as he is favorite in both Idaho and Utah, next caucuses scheduled for March 22. But next Tuesday surely won't change a lot as most delegates are given in Arizona primary, also on March 22, that is in favor of Hillary Clinton.

But, can Sanders make a surprise in Arizona? He has invested more than $1.5 million in ads in this country but at the same time Arizona is in terms of demographics and geography somewhat similar to Nevada where Clinton won in February, 53% to 47%. Still, if you think Sanders can make a surprise by winning Arizona, find great odds at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-arizona-democratic-primary/.

Utah is similar to Arizona, but in the opposite ways as Clinton tries to make a surprise by winning it before current favorite Sanders. Some think current momentum will help Hillary to prevail but Sanders still has more support and caucuses go in his favor as well. But Utah it is far from decided, so odds are solid on either side of the market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-utah-democratic-caucus/.

As for Idaho, it should be the most one-sided country next Tuesday as Sanders is a big favorite to win it. He will be in Idaho Falls tomorrow morning for his "A Future To Believe In" rally, and though people think Hillary has a momentum, Sanders should prevail easily here. You don't agree? Then find great odds on Hillary's win and bet right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-idaho-democratic-caucus/.

What is your opinion on the following Democratic primaries, or do you think those of Republicans are easier to predict?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 21, 2016, 12:14:06 PM
House Of Cards – To be the Next President

SPOILER ALERT: There could be few spoilers for those of you who still haven't watched Season 4.

Okay, we thought that Season 4 will be the last season of the ‘House Of Cards’ series but in the meantime it’s been renewed for Season 5 and we also didn’t get the new President in Season 4. We did get similar campaign that we have in the real life but final election is left for the next season, with addition of the hugely popular candidate Will Conway.

Still, after watching Season 4, some are even scared with the things Frank Underwood and his wife Clare will do for Frank to become the next President. So, in the markets you now how at Fairlay, Frank Underwood is by far the biggest favorite for the next President. If you think Frank will be spectacular winner in the next election, place your bets here:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/house-of-cards-to-be-the-next-president/.

Of course, you have even better odds if you think Frank will not be the next president. Second favorite is the new and very popular character Will Conway who leads in all the pools and at the moment only he can stop Frank. But you have great odds on ‘Other’ option as well, if you think Clare Underwood, Heather Dunbar on someone else could surprise.

So, what is your opinion? Will it all be about Frank or that Reddit theory ‘The deck is now complete after 4 seasons of 13 episodes; so the fifth will be about how the metaphoric house of cards come tumbling down.’ could be true after all?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 22, 2016, 01:03:44 PM
Who will be the Next Editor of US Vogue, when Anna Wintour retires?

With tragic day that brought us Brussels explosions, and that will be followed with new set of US primaries, it is time to mind off a bit with market that is concerned with one light, but at the same time really important, topic: the Next Editor of US Vogue.

It is hard to find more influence Editor-in-Chief that it is Anna Wintour in US Vogue, a position she has held since 1988. She is one of the most important figures in the fashion world but at the same time person whose retirement is expected for years back. In fact, even in 2008 we already had press headlines ‘Is Anna Wintour Ready to Retire?’.

But, another interesting topic is who will take over Vogue after her retirement? In Fairlay markets you have on offer seven names with ‘Other’ option opened if you have someone else in mind. And first favorite at the moment is Glenda Bailey who has spent the last 15 years as the editor of Harper’s Bazaar.

Bailey is followed by Amy Astley, current editor-in-chief of Teen Vogue, and therefore a popular choice. She is given same chances as Lucy Yeomans who was previously the editor of Harper’s Bazaar and now edits the popular fashion website Net-a-Porter.

They are followed by few more popular names in the fashion world, so you (or at least your partner) could have positive opinion on some of them so you can catch great odds at Fairlay. But first, we all have to wait for Anna Wintour to get into the retirement and thus this market will be open till January 1, 2019. Here are your odds:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-editor-of-us-vogue/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 23, 2016, 10:54:25 AM
Trump won Arizona but will he prevail in Wisconsin?

Yesterday Trump won Arizona and its 58 delegates, while Cruz scored a victory in Utah and appeared poised to win all of its 40 delegates by winning more than 50 percent of the vote there. So now Trump has at least 739 delegates, nearly 60 percent of the total he needs, but Ted Cruz is still confident he is able to stop him.

Next on the schedule for Republicans is Wisconsin primary on April 5, before they move to New York on April 19. Cruz will campaign in Wisconsin for three straight days, starting Wednesday, while he was earlier today also endorsed by Jeb Bush. But, it is the question does this come too late in their attempts to stop Trump.

When it comes to Wisconsin, Trump is still rather favorite to prevail, and the fact that John Kasich is still in race could help his as well as Kasich's votes would surely go into Cruz's favor. But, it is far from decided as Wisconsin is open primary so new voters can register even on election day.

Still, people think that Cruz is undervalued and his early campaign could help him as well. On the other side, opinions are that Brussels attacks will help Trump. Anyway, being the only Republican primary in the next few weeks, Wisconsin will get a lot of attention so you can already find Fairlay markets and place your bets here:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-republican-primary/.

And, what are your opinions on the latests and following primaries, and which one would you like to see created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 23, 2016, 03:53:02 PM
Will Sanders win all three of Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington?

Last night Sanders lost Arizona to Hillary but he easily prevailed in both Utah and Idaho, other two states that voted yesterday. They both held caucuses, so it was once again shown that this format favors the Vermont senator. Because of this he will be a huge favorite in all three states that vote in caucuses on Saturday: Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington.

Even Hillary’s team admitted that Sanders will be a huge favorite next weekend but they think that even a string of victories by Sanders over the next few weeks would have little impact on Clinton’s position in the race. And, at the moment, it is almost sure that Sanders will easily close Washington and Alaska caucuses.

But, he is not such a superb favorite in Hawaii caucuses, though even here he is a rather big one and wins in Utah and Idaho are surely going to help him. So, you now have an open market on whether Sanders will win all three caucuses held on Saturday, with great odds if you think that Clinton is able to stop him even in one of the states. Bet here:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/sanders-to-win-alaska-hawaii-and-washington/.

So, what is your opinion on following Democrats' caucuses, and what other markets would you like to see created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 24, 2016, 04:31:50 PM
Is Dilma Rousseff facing her last weeks as the president of Brazil?

At the start of the year there was a lot of talk about Dilma Rousseff and thousands of protesters who took to the streets across Brazil as Dilma's government struggled to lift the economy from its most severe crisis in decades. Well, in few months nothing have changed. In fact, The Economist’s newest South American cover is going hugely against her:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CePJMtDXEAAr9b-.jpg

So, is is her time to go? It is not on her to decide anymore, as on March 18th Brazil’s congressmen voted to commence impeachment proceedings against the country’s embattled president.  Few phases are to be followed as her future will be decided and what is to follow is nicely explained by The Economist:

Ms Rousseff first needs to convince at least 172 lower-house legislators out of 513 to back her. She has ten congressional sessions, or two or three weeks, to present her defence to a special commission. This body then has five sessions to issue a recommendation to the full house, which must vote on it within 48 hours. If Ms Rousseff’s foes fall short of 342 votes, the case is buried. Should they succeed, senators must then approve, by an absolute majority of 41 out of 81, to accept the lower-house motion. If they do, a trial of up to 180 days begins, presided over by the chief justice of the Supreme Court. During this period, Ms Rousseff steps down and her vice-president, Michel Temer, temporarily takes her place. If at least 54 senators subsequently vote to remove her, Mr Temer would probably serve out the rest of the term, which ends in 2018.

Will Dilma Rousseff remain the president of Brazil through 2016? Probably not. At the moment, 68% of Brazilians say they favor impeachment, so by the end of the April Dilma Rousseff could be without a job. Still, if you think that she will be the president of Brazil till the end of year you have great odds on that at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/dilma-rousseff-to-remain-president-of-brazil-through-2016/.

What is your opinion on this, and what other markets regarding world politics would you like to see created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 25, 2016, 01:17:49 PM
University Boat Race – Cambridge or Oxford? And by what distance?

Following Sunday, March 27 will give us 162nd annual Univeristy Boat Race between Cambridge and Oxford. Men's race is scheduled for 16:10 on the River Thames that will have quarter of a million people on its banks watching this popular race. Millions will also watch it live on televsion (coverage on BBC2 begins at 14:30), as the light blues of Cambridge will try to end Oxford’s three year domination of the event.

Even though Oxford won the last three races, Cambridge is a favorite in this one as Oxford crew has undergone huge changes this year, with Constantine Louloudis, who captained the dark blues to four wins in the last five years, now gone, and only Jamie Cook returning. In contrast, Cambridge sees four of last year's squad returning, and have added the Great Britain’s oarsman Lance Tredell.

But it is far from decided and how tight the races have been trough the years shows the fact that Cambridge have won the race 81 times, while Oxford have secured the bragging rights on 79 occasions. There was a dead heat in 1877, and you have incredibly high odds if you think that dead heat could occur once again this year. So, either you prefer Oxford or Cambridge, you don’t want to miss the chance to place your bet:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-2016-mens-boat-race-winner/.

Some do think that Oxford could win as the last year winner has advantage, though history doesn’t prove that, or their could win the coin toss and then they can choose their preferred station. Other think that the heavier boat has advantage and this year Cambridge crew is around 11kg heavier than the Oxford crew. And for you who are more in details, you also have markets on the winning distance:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-2016-mens-boat-race-winning-distance/.

So, who do you prefer and are there some other rowing events for which you would like to have created markets?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 28, 2016, 12:46:39 PM
Wisconsin Democratic Primary – Can Sanders continue his good run?

After he won all three caucuses held on Saturday, Bernie Sanders wants to follow those wins with the win at the next Democratic primary that is in Wisconsin on Tuesday, April 5. But, at the same time, Hillary Clinton will want to stop his series of wins as they will follow Wisconsin with caucuses in Wyoming where Sanders is a huge favorite.

Even though Hillary leads at Wisconsin polls, huge amount of people voting in Wisconsin should favor Sanders as there is currently some kind of a Bernie mania, especially among students that tend to vote for Sanders. Wisconsin is also an open primary that favor Sanders more than the close one does, though not as much as caucuses favor him.

The 2008 electorate in Wisconsin was 87 percent white so, considering the high share of white men as compared to black voters, it is also one of the places Sanders should have good chances. But polls still give Hillary nice chances, and she is about to start her campaign there, so Wisconsin primary could be a great market. Place your bets now:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-democratic-primary/.

And you already have on offer even more interesting Wisconsin Republican primary that has been opened with Trump as a favorite but now Ted Cruz is one with the bigger chances to prevail. Still, odds on both sides are rather good, with the great ones if you think John Kasich could win there, so don't miss to place your bet if you already didn't:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-republican-primary/.

So, what are your opinions on the Wisconsin primaries, and what others that will follow would you like to see created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 31, 2016, 03:01:40 PM
Who will be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron?

With voting on both UK Referendum and the next London Mayor (you can already find these markets in Fairlay's UK Politics section: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/uk-politics/all/), things in London got even worse in recent days as the Prime Minister David Cameron has been convening what he calls Cabinet meetings from which ministers favoring Brexit have been excluded and prevented from seeing papers.

At the same time, some political writers have been asking the question ‘Does David Cameron have to quit as Prime Minister after UK Referendum – regardless of the result?’ So, things are getting interesting and it is probably the right time to open the market on who will be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron, though in the worst case this market will be resolved only with the next UK general election that is due to be held on 7 May, 2020.

But this market could be resolved much earlier if Cameron quits and so there are already talks who could his successor be. At the same time there are talks about the next leader of the Conservative party as many think that leadership election of this party could be held right after the UK Referendum. So, this leadership election could in a part decide who will be the first favorite for the next Prime Minister and at the moment that is Boris Johnson.

Current London Mayor is seen as a person who is able to re-establish the UK as strong voice. After Johnson, second person that is seen amongst the favorites for the next Prime Minister is George Osborne. But, he is also seen as a boring and cold personality. Theresa May is seen as the third favorite to become the next Tory leader and she is at the same time the fourth favorite to become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Still, if the Conservative party develops more problems, this could open a chance for Jeremy Corbyn, Leader of the Labour Party, to become the next Prime Minister and because of this he is a third favorite overall. Anyway, when it comes to the UK politics, interesting months are ahead of us and they could also decide who will be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron. Anyway, it is not so soon to place your bets at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-prime-minister-after-david-cameron/.

So, what is your opinion about these questions, and what other UK Politics markets would you like to bet on?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 04, 2016, 04:01:05 PM
Official England Euro 2016 Song Artist – Stormzy or Louis Tomlinson?

England national football team will hardly ever have a better official song than it did with ‘Three Lions’ in 1996. Still, every big football tournament (though, for some reason, no official song released in 2010) produces one official and couple of unofficial songs, and these days we expect the confirmation of the artist who will record one for Euro 2016.

At the moment, it is still far from certain who will record this one but there are a lot of talks that it should be either Grime MC Stormzy or One Direction's Louis Tomlinson. Well-known pop star and football fan Tomlinson is the second favorite, as Stormzy became the first favorite with the sayings that fans have been backing him with their own money.

These two are followed by Tinie Tempah and Kaiser Chiefs, while you have great odds if you think any other artist could record England official song. Anyway, Football's (Not) Coming Home but you can still make money if you guess right whose song you’ll be listening to when England starts playing Euro 2016 matches, so place your bet right now at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/official-england-euro-2016-song-artist/.

So, who is your favorite for this market, and what other interesting Euro 2016 markets would you like to see created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 05, 2016, 02:55:43 PM
BAFTA TV Awards – Who will win them for Best Actor, Actress, Drama, Soap, Entertainment Programme?

Season of movie and music awards is behind us, so for those who love those kinds of ceremonies, with awards and nominations, BAFTA TV Awards is a popular one at the moment. Nominations were announced last week and ceremony will be held on May 8, so you already have at Fairlay markets offer some of the most popular categories.

Historical drama “Wolf Hall” leads the nomination race as this miniseries took four nominations, and is the first favorite for the Best Drama Series. “Humans”, science fiction television series, is the second favorite in this category, while other two nominations are “No Offence” and “The Last Panthers” that is given really small chances for an award.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Drama Series: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-drama-series/.

Mark Rylance, who two months ago won an Oscar for “Bridge of Spies“, is the first favorite for the Best Actor Award, as he is another “Wolf Hall” nomination. Second favorite is the last year winner, Idris Elba, for his role in “Luther”, while other two nominations are Stephen Graham for “This Is England '90“ and Ben Whishaw for “London Spy“.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Actor: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-actor/.

“Wolf Hall” also has a nomination for the Best Actress Award as Claire Foy received one, though she is not the first favorite.  Biggest chances for the Best Actress Award are given to Sheridan Smith for “The C-Word“ and Suranne Jones for “Doctor Foster“, while Ruth Madeley for “Don’t Take My Baby“ is given the smallest chances.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Actress: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-actress/.

At the moment, biggest favorite in any of the categories is “Adele at the BBC”, for the Best Entertainment Programme Award. She could be challenged by “Strictly Come Dancing”, another BBC1 programme, while other two nominations are for “Britain’s Got Talent”, and “TFI Friday anniversary special” that is given almost no chances for award.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Entertainment Programme: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-entertainment-programme/.

Always interesting category is that one for the Best Soap and Continuing Drama Award. For now, the first favorite to take the award is Coronation Street, though good chances for the win are also given to “EastEnders“. Other two nominations, though with the rather small chances for the win, are given to “Emmerdale“ and “Holby City“.

BAFTA TV Awards - Best Soap and Continuing Drama: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bafta-tv-awards-best-soap-and-continuing-drama/.

All in all, you have plenty of markets to place your bets on, and surely some of your favorite shows have received nominations, and you can also note if you want to see markets for some others categories created as well.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 06, 2016, 12:16:42 PM
Next Presidential primaries – Will Clinton and Trump close New York?

Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump lost their Wisconsin primaries last night, so now they can completely move their focuses to New York primaries that are scheduled for Tuesday, April 19. At the same time, after last night’s wins, Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz can hope to achieve more in New York then they were about to before good Wisconsin results.

Schedule of primaries goes even more in favor to Bernie Sanders as Wyoming Democratic caucuses are scheduled for the following Saturday, April 9, and he will almost surely prevail there. Wyoming is the least populated state with white conservatives that mostly vote for Bernie, while he won previous caucuses and will surely win one is Wyoming as well.

So, New York primary will be as important as one primary gets. Even with Bernie’s momentum, Hillary is still favorite to win New York (recent polls go 53%-43% in her favor, with 4% undecided), though Sanders chances are getting bigger from day to day. Anyway, New York primary could be most important moment of the campaign so bet at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-york-democratic-primary/.

On the other side, Donald Trump is a huge favorite to win New York as Ted Cruz and John Kasich will probably divide anti-Trump suppoter’s votes (last polls have Trump at 52%, Kasich at 21%, Cruz at 17%). Still, by losing Wisconsin, Donald Trump is getting stopped from securing his nomination and gets frustrated as they are going towards convention fight.

Nice victory for Ted Cruz in Wisconsin puts additional pressure on Trump in his home state primaries as he now wants to win big in New York, as just win is no good for him. All in all, Trump is still a huge favorite for winning New York but if you think he could lost support in the next two weeks, then you have great odds on both Kasich and Cruz. Bet now:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-york-republican-primary/.

What are your opinions on the New York primaries, and what other primary markets would you like to have on offer?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 07, 2016, 11:42:47 AM
Will woman be the next U.N. Secretary-General?

At the start of December we already talked about the election for the next U.N. Secretary-General but these days it once again became the trending topic as Guardian announced that UN will hold Secretary-General job hustings for first time ever, so contenders will explain ideals and intentions to general assembly and hold public debates in New York and London.

These public debates will surely be interesting as for the UN’s first 70 year, the Secretary-General was chosen behind closed doors by the major powers on the security council, and only then presented to the general assembly for approval. Date of final election is still not confirmed, as current holder Ban Ki-moon prepares to step down at the end of this year.

So far eight candidates have declared their bids and the last one is Helen Clark, former Prime Minister of New Zealand and current Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme. With her nomination, question of the next Secretary-General being a woman was once again opened as all the Secretary-Generals to date have been men.

A the moment there is a strong push to select a woman this timeand at the moment we have four of them among the official candidates. But, more candidates are about to bid, among which are the Chilean president, Michelle Bachelet, and in recent weeks there has been a growing buzz around the idea that the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, could bid as well.

With some strong woman already declaring their bids, and some even stronger about to bid, it is not a surprise that Fairlay has market placed around 70% for the woman be the next U.N. Secretary-General. But, what is your opinion on this? You can use following public debates to form one, or bet right now, having great odds if you think men are in favor:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 11, 2016, 12:09:53 PM
How many delegates will Trump win? More than 1,200? Less than 1,150?

These days, US Politics is mostly about the number of delegates so they really deserve its own market to which you can place predictions as we wait for the New York Primaries scheduled for the next Tuesday, April 19. Of course, when it comes to the number of delegates, it is mostly about those Donald Trump needs to seal the Republican nomination.

So, let's get straight to numbers. The magic number of delegates needed to seal the Republican nomination is 1,237. At the moment, Donald Trump has 743 of them (Ted Cruz is at 545), and we have 854 delegates remaining.

By FiveThirtyEight estimations, Trump is currently at 92% of target (you can use their great graphics for delegate targets: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/), so with this, the first option in this market is that he will win 1,201 or more delegates and for it the most chances are given (around 43% at the moment).

Still, this market is far from decided as most people think that Trump won't seal the nomination after primaries, and that he could easily go under 1,200 delegates, staying in the range of 1,151 - 1200 that is second option in the market.

But, if Donald Trump starts to lose his momentum with the April primaries, he could even give up before the closing June primaries and with momentum shifting to Ted Cruz, Trump could finish these primaries with 1,150 or less delegates. That is the third option in this ' How many delegates will Trump win?' market that you can find at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/how-many-delegates-will-trump-win/.

What is your opinion on this market? Are you sure in some of the options and do you think he will seal the nomination?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 12, 2016, 02:59:50 PM
Will Usain Bolt and Mo Farah win all the gold medals at Olympics’ 100m, 200m, 5000m, and 10000m events?

We are left with only 115 day till Olympics in Rio so it is time to start creating and betting on more Olympics markets. Since January, you had open market for a country that wins most gold medals in Rio (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/country-to-win-most-gold-medals/), with USA Olympics team having the most chances.

But now it is time to add some individual markets and it is best to start with Usain Bolt and Mo Farah as they are often talked about as athletes that could once again be Olympic heroes of their states. So, can both of them win both gold medals in their favorite events or will someone manage to stop at least one, or even both of them, in August in Rio?

Usain Bolt, being the first man to hold both the 100m and 200m world records since fully automatic time measurements became mandatory in 1977, is regarded as the fastest person ever timed, so it will be a rather surprise if he doesn’t confirm his domination in Rio, as he won both 100m and 200m at both Beijing 2008 and London 2012 Olympics.

Usain Bolt to win the 100m and 200m gold medals: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/usain-bolt-to-win-the-100m-and-200m-gold-medals/.

Mo Farah is less popular than Bolt but he is a superb distance runner, and he was a gold medalist in both 5000m and 10,000m at London 2012. Completing that double again at 2015 World Championships in Athletics, he became the second man in history to win long-distance doubles at successive Olympics and World Championships. It is time for Rio.

Mo Farah to win the 5000m and 10000m gold medals: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mo-farah-to-win-the-5000m-and-10000m-gold-medals/.

So, what are your opinions on their gold medals chase and which other Olympics markets would you like to see created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 13, 2016, 05:21:13 PM
What will be the Bitcoin Price 30 days after the Block Halving?

We are left with 89 days till The Block Halving (in mid July, the amount of new bitcoins awarded to bitcoin miners will drop from 3,600 BTC per day to 1,800 BTC per day, and with that, the annual increase in the bitcoin money supply will drop from 9.17% to 4.09%), so its effect on the bitcoin price is these days the trending topic in the bitcoin community.

There are plenty of opinions regarding this effect. Most are sure that the price will increase: they differ from those who think that it will happen in the following weeks, to those who think it will happen only weeks or even months after the halving is done. There are also those who think halving is already influencing the price and it would be lower without it.

On the other side, there are some who think that increase in price won’t happen, if fact, they are even sure that it will go down, and some think that other factors will influence the price more than halving alone. Anyway, all these opinions show that it is hard to predict right how will the Bitcoin price change in the following months, and months after halving.

As most of you have own opinions on this matter, you now have on offer open prediction market at Fairlay, so you can earn additional bitcoins if you guess right the price of Bitcoin 30 days after the halving, but also show your opinion. You have four options on offer. From $400 or less, to $400,01 - $450; and $450,01 - $500, and one being $500,01 or higher:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/price-of-bitcoin-30-days-after-the-halving/.

So, what is your opinion on the Bitcoin price (a month) after the halving? In which range will it be in that moment?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 14, 2016, 01:15:53 PM
Who will win the French presidential election? Alain Juppe? Nicolas Sarkozy? Marine Le Pen?

Couple of months ago, Politico had a great article about the 2017 French presidential election campaign titled ''Art of comeback in French politics: First, write a book'' in which it is noted that the next years' campaign is starting as a grand book tour. And, interestingly, it is easy to compare this 'book tour' with the chances they are given in a year from now.

At the moment, the first favorite at the French presidential election (scheduled to be held in April and May 2017) is Alain Juppe, Mayor of Bordeaux and former Prime Minister, who is given around 40% to become the President. At the same time, he has written two books since the summer of 2014, and intends to publish two more by the end of this year.

So, with this in mind, it is not a surprise that the second favorite is former president Nicolas Sarkozy, whose book ''France for Life'' has been at the top of France’s best-seller lists. Okay, let’s get serious a bit as the current president and the third favorite to win (re-)election is Francois Hollande who is all but a great writer, though he did write as well.

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03556/Sarkozy_book_cover_3556179b.jpg

But the current President has also lost the political capital built up after the Paris attacks, while National Fronte leader Marine Le Pen is also taking time to regroup so she is not given huge chances at the moment. It is similar with the current Prime Minister Manuel Valls, with only 10% of chances, still more than anyone out of these five candidates.

French people surely like to read so it will be interesting to see how many books in the following 12 months will those most important candidates publish, and how will that influence their campaign and election results. But, till then, don’t miss the chance to use the great odds Fairlay offers on any of these writers, ups, candidates at the French election:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/french-election-next-president/.

What is your opinion on this Presidential election, and what other European politics markets you want to see created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 16, 2016, 10:19:17 AM
Who will be Palme d'Or Winner at the following Cannes 2016 Film Festival?

The initial lineup for the 69th French film festival has been announced yesterday, including 20 films screening in competition. This year’s Cannes is scheduled to be held from 11 to 22 May 2016, with the winners being announced on the last day. So, till then you will have an open market on Fairlay for the Palme d'Or Winner:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/palme-dor-winner-1/.

First favorite at the moment is movie ‘Sieranevada’ by Romanian film director and screenwriter Cristi Puiu who earlier both  won and was nominated for ‘Un Certain Regard Award’ in Cannes. But still, he is far from a huge favorite as this year’s competition selection in one of the strongest in recent years.

http://www.theexchange.ws/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/tumblr_nph5sf6kJD1qej1i6o1_12801.png

Puiu is followed by ‘Julieta’, Pedro Almodovar’s latest drama that’s already been released to positive reviews in Spain. New Jim Jamursh’s low-key drama ‘Paterson’ is also ranked high, as well as the movie ‘I, Daniel Blake’ by Ken Loach who previously won the Palme d’Or for ‘The Wind That Shakes the Barley’.

Xavier Dolan’s latest film, ‘Juste la fin du monde’ will premiere in competition, as well as Jeff Nichols’ drama ‘Loving’ about an interracial marriage in 50s America. Those two movies, together with Cristian Mungiu’s movie ‘Bacalaureat’, are currently among the first seven favorites for this year’s Palme d'Or Winner.

Some of your favorite directors, or actors, are probably in competition as well, and if they are not included amongst the top contenders you can use the great odds on the option ‘Other’ that covers all the other movies. Anyway, it is less than a month till one of the most popular Film Festivals so you have enough time to predict your favorite.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: GMK on April 16, 2016, 10:32:42 AM
Fairlay website is down, not accessible


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 18, 2016, 08:19:11 PM
Who will die and who will survive the Season 6 of Game of Thrones?

We are only one week away from Game of Thrones Season 6 premiere, and as everyone is talking about it, with lot of ‘Ifs’, it is time to offer you set of Game of Thrones markets. It is all about Valar morghulis, so you have eight markets on eight different characters, and you only need to predict right which of them will survive Season 6. Or die in it.

And for the first time, those deaths will be surprise for everyone as season five caught up with the books and began to introduce plot developments from beyond the five published novels. So, books can’t help you. Or, can they? And what is with teasers and trailers? Well, in a scary way they showed that everyone is in danger, even Tyrion and Daenerys.

Could even Cersei Lannister be in danger, or the worst things are behind her? Well, chances that she will die are small but she could surely influence some of the deaths. But, who will she go after? Probably after The High Sparrow whose chances to stay alive are not great, but also after the other queen, Margaery Tyrell. Wait, not the beautiful one.

The High Sparrow to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/the-high-sparrow-to-die-in-season-6-1/
Cersei Lannister to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/cersei-lannister-to-die-in-season-6/


Still, Natalie Dormer (who plays Margaery Tyrell) said that "Cersei is the least of Margaery's problems" in Season 6, so she is surely in huge problems and thus one of the favorites to die. At the same time, Jaime Lannister is one of those who should survive the following season but he already had enough problems to deserve market on his death.

Margaery Tyrell to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/margaery-tyrell-to-die-in-season-6/
Jaime Lannister to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jaime-lannister-to-die-in-season-6/


But Jamie’s life has been a joyful experience if we compare it to that of Theon Greyjoy. Is he finally free? Probably yes but he is still amongst those with higher chances to die in the following season. It is the same with his ‘best friend’ Ramsay Bolton who could do some nasty things after he finds out that both Reek and Sansa have left him.

Theon Greyjoy to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/theon-greyjoy-to-die-in-season-6/
Ramsay Bolton to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/ramsay-bolton-to-die-in-season-6/


As she is probably the only person who can bring John Snow back, Melisandre could have important role in Season 6. But could playing with fire and dark side cost her life? Well, she is far away from the safe ones. And, sadly for him, it is almost sure that Jorah Mormont won’t survive the following season. Or could he make a surprise by staying alive?

Melisandre to die in Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/melisandre-to-die-in-season-6/
Jorah Mormont to die Season 6: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jorah-mormont-to-die-in-season-6/


What is your opinion on all the possible deaths in the following season? Who will survive and who will die? And, would you like to have the same market created for some other characters, or do you want to have some other Game of Thrones markets? We are only one week away from Season 6, so place your predictions and enjoy it. Valar morghulis!


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 19, 2016, 02:40:34 PM
Who will be 2016 TIME Person of the Year Winner? Hillary, Trump, Migrants, Soldiers?

“Europe’s most powerful leader is a refugee from a time and place where her power would have been unimaginable,“ wrote TIME magazine in December last year when explaining why Angela Merkel was their Person of the Year for 2015. Could we this year have the same sentence with World instead of Europe and Hillary Clinton instead of Angela Merkel?

In the year with US Presidential Election, the new US President could easily be TIME's Person of the Year. And Hillary Clinton is going towards that at the moment, and thus she is by far the first favorite in this market. She is followed with Donald Trump as a second favorite, and Ted Cruz as fifth, as they are both still in race for the next US President.

Person of the Year is an annual issue of the United States news magazine Time that features and profiles a person, group, idea or object that "for better or for worse...has done the most to influence the events of the year". Because of this, group could once again be Person of the Year and both Migrants and Soldiers are amongst popular candidates.

Still, it is only April, so plenty of things could happen till December, thus option 'Other' could also be a good choice as we could have some winners out of the first five in our market. Maybe Barack Obama, Bashar al-Assad, or Pope Francis. Anyway, there are plenty of candidates, and odds (on all but Hillary Clinton) are superb so make your prediction at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/time-person-of-the-year-winner/.

Who is your favorite this year, and what other similar markets would you like to see created? And don't forget, you can put that you were Time's 2006 person of the year on your CV. In 2006, Time made "Everyone" the person of the year.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 20, 2016, 06:55:28 PM
Who will win the Rhode Island Democratic primary?

After both of them easily won New York primaries yesterday, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump once again regained all the control in their parties, while stopping Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz. As Hillary’s nomination is almost confirmed, Trump is once again looking like a strong candidate. And all the following primaries are about to confirm that as well.

In fact, it is almost certain that Trump and Hillary will win all primaries held by both parties in five countries next Tuesday. Only primary that is even is Democratic one in the Rhode Island and thus you have an open market on it:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-rhode-island-democratic-primary/.

Recent, but still rather rare, pools showed that the Rhode Island race between Hillary and Sanders is really tight. So, most people are certain that this is the only country that Sanders could win next Tuesday but others are not so sure that his voters didn’t give up already. And Hillary is going to campaign there on Saturday, after the great New York win.

Still, Rhode Island is white and middle class that suits Sanders, and it is semi closed primary which will benefit Sanders as well. All in all, it could be rather even primary and that means good odds on any of the sides that you chose to bet on.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 21, 2016, 04:55:07 PM
Austrian presidential election - Who will win it?

Following Sunday, Austria will hold a presidential election, with a run off scheduled for 22 May if no candidate manages to win an absolute majority in the first vote. This election will be dominated by the issue of the migration crisis, while it is also a key test of the relative standing of each of the main parties. So, who are the favorites for the next President?

Currently, all the talk is mostly about three candidates. Alexander Van der Bellen, the former Green party leader, appears to be leading the polls and he is followed by Norbert Hofer. Third in the polls is the independent Irmgard Griss, while other candidates are not given such the big chances. 

So, it will be interesting to see who will replace Heinz Fischer, who served two terms in office. Both Griss and Van der Bellen are seen as liked and honest, while many think that Hofer shouldn’t be as popular as he is. Still, biggest chances to go to a run off are given to Van der Bellen and Hofer. Then anything can happen. Here is your market on this election:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/austrian-presidential-election/.

Who is your favorite in this Austrian presidential election, and what other politic markets would you want to bet on?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 22, 2016, 06:21:29 PM
When will Segregated Witness be activated? Before, or after July 15?

This year is bringing the explosion of innovation in the Bitcoin software, and few days ago things moved even more forwards as Bitcoin core developer Pieter Wuille completed a long-awaited (or not so long) upgrade to the bitcoin protocol. It is named Segregated Witness, or 'SegWit' for short.

How important this update is, show the comments that Segregated Witness might be the most significant improvement to the Bitcoin protocol ever. It is set to fix transaction malleability, offers an effective block size increase, enables development flexibility and so on. So, when it will be activated?

Well, three days ago, Wuille submitted a pull request that is proposal to merge SegWit into the Bitcoin Core's master branch. After this Review, it will be offered to the public through a new Bitcoin Core release. And then, it is only about miners (at least those representing 95% of hash power) to lock in this soft fork.

About two weeks after this locking, Segregated Witness is activated. And, this being trending topic in the Bitcoin community, you already have an idea when will this happen and now you also have an open market at Fairlay. Date set is July 15 and you only need to predict will the activation happen before or after it:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/segregated-witness-to-be-activated-before-july-15/.

So, what is your opinion on this market, and what other Bitcoin related markets would you like to have created soon?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 25, 2016, 02:34:03 PM
Can Doland Trump win over 50% of votes in all five Tuesday primaries?

Another kind of Super Tuesday is ahead of us as five primaries will be held tomorrow, with the huge chances that we will see Super Trump winning all five of them in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

Even the fact that Ted Cruz and John Kasich announced that they had reached a deal on a strategy to deny Trump the Republican nomination will hardly stop his delegate count from increasing once again. But how superb will Trump be?

Some think that his recent anger will increse his support so much that he will win all five countries tomorrow with more than 50% of votes. It is hardly to happen, but this 'Super Win' deserves the market that you now have open at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/trump-to-go-over-50-in-all-five-tuesday-primaries/.

So, what is your opinion? Donald Trump did win New York with 60%, so can he use that momentum to go over 50% in all five countries holding their primaries tomorrow? He is a huge favorite in all of them, but how far can he truly reach?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 26, 2016, 06:44:08 PM
Who will be the next U.N. Secretary-General? Irina Bokova, Helen Clark, Angela Merkel?

For the last year there was a lot of talk whether the next U.N. Secretary-General will be a woman and you already have an open market on that topic (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general/) but it is time to get more specific and start talking about the name of the potential Ban Ki-Moon successor.

Because of the informal regional rotation scheme, many commentators speculate that the next UN Secretary-General will come from the Eastern European Group, as that region has never produced a Secretary-General. Thus, it is not surprise that the first favorite at the moment is Bulgarian Irina Bokova, currently Director-General of UNESCO.

Another big name recently added as a candidate, that is now the second favorite, is Helen Clark, Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme. President of Lithuania, Dalia Grybauskaite, is still not an official candidate but is one of the strongest potential one and thus she is ranked amongst the favorites as well.

First favorite amongst the male candidates is former Prime Minister of Portugal Antonio Guterres, while good chances are also given to Danilo Turk, former President of Slovenia. Still, there are rather big chances for a female to prevail so good chances are also given to potential candidates Kristalina Georgieva, and even Angela Merkel. Here is the market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-u-n-secretary-general/.

So, there are plenty of candidates to place your bet on and all of them are currently with the great odds, and the next U.N. Secretary-General should be known by the end of the year. Who is your favorite?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 27, 2016, 05:49:39 PM
Are Hillary and Trump on their ways to close Indiana primaries as well?

Another Tuesday, and another set of big wins for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, as both Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz are almost out of the race for their party nomination. And after five primaries held yesterday, following Tuesday will have only one, set in Indiana. Both parties will hold their primaries as Trump and Hillary continue their domination.

How serious Donald Trump is about winning Indiana shows the fact that he has already begun opening his wallet for the air war, spending more than $900,000 on TV and radio ads. So, Indiana is getting serious, as some think that it now the place where Trump can’t win the nomination but it’s where he can lose it. So, can Ted Cruz harm him at least there?

Cruz is hoping for a replay of Wisconsin, another Midwestern state where a united GOP front helped him defeat Trump on April 5, but Trump is still the one leading three most recent Indiana public polls. Winner of Indiana will likely emerge with at least 45 of the 57 delegates, thus May 3 is another important date, so place your own prediction at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-indiana-republican-primary/.

Indiana Democratic Primary is not as important as Republican, but Hillary surely wants to confirm her nomination. Last night she lost only in the Rhode Island, and winning four other states she completely moved momentum on her side. How big that momentum is shows the fact that she is already moved her focus from Bernie Sanders to Donald Trump.

So, can Bernie use that to win Indiana? Well, probably not, though he has bigger chances than he had in New York and four states he lost last night. It is mostly because Indiana has a large white population that could favor him, and that is why people think he can defeat Hillary here. But can he really do it, or will Hillary easily close another state? Predict at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-indiana-democratic-primary/.

What is your opinion on the Indiana primaries, and what other of primaries scheduled for May would you like to bet on?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 28, 2016, 07:15:15 PM
Who will win Eurovision semi-finals?

Eurovision Song Contest is already one of the most popular markets on Fairlay (you have odds for outright winner at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/), so it is time to offer you markets on both Semi Final winners as those semis are scheduled for May 10, and May 12, with final evening on May 15.

Besides France, Russia is the biggest favorite for the win in the end, so it is not a surprise that it is also by far the biggest favorite to win the first Semi Final in which Sergey Lazarev participates. Amongst other favorites are Malta and Armenia, so if you think that any of these two, or any other country could make a surprise, find great odds on them at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-1-winner/.

Second Semi Final will be much more interesting as there is no big favorite for the win, and almost all counties could close it. Still, the first two favorites are Australia and Ukraine, but Latvia and Bulgaria could also get plenty of votes. It is same with Serbia, or in fact any other country. Thus, you have great odds if you guess right the Semi Final 2 winner: 

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-2-winner/.

What is your opinion on Eurovision 2016, who is your favorite, and would you like to have some additional markets?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 29, 2016, 05:58:28 PM
Will Donald Trump win 1,237 delegates?
 
There are but few more talked about numbers than it is the magic number of 1,237. There are talks that it could happen even if it is lower, but this is currently the number of delegates Donald Trump needs to win if he wants to secure his nomination as the Republican Presidential Candidate, prior to the GOP National Convention. So, will he reach it?

Few weeks ago (by FiveThirtyEight estimations at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/) he was 92% of target, but with good results in the recent primaries, he is now 97% of target, and following primaries should go in his favor. Currently, he is at 994 delegates won, so only 243 delegates short of his nomination.

Some still think that he will not reach it, and current talk that Hillary would easily defeat him in November is not going in his favor, as well as coalition between Ted Cruz and John Kasich in order to stop him from reaching 1,237 delegates. But, for months nothing is going in Trump's favor and he is still going towards nomination. Will he prevail? Predict at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-donald-trump-win-1-237-delegates/.

This market will be open till Indiana primaries following Tuesday, on which you can bet at https://www.fairlay.com/event/category-decimal/news/us-presidential-election/all/. And, are there more similar markets that you would like to place your predictions on?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 01, 2016, 11:22:43 AM
Austrian presidential election, second round run-off: Can Alexander Van der Bellen stop Norbert Hofer?

A week ago presidential election was held in Austria, but no candidate received a majority of the vote so a second round run-off is scheduled for May 22. Second round will be really interesting as we are left with Norbert Hofer, the first round winner of the Freedom Party of Austria, and Alexander Van der Bellen, a member of the Austrian Greens contesting as an independent, placed second in the first round.

Norbert Hofer got surprisingly huge 36% after the first round, leaving Van der Bellen at 21%, but he is still far from winning position, as recent poll gives them 50%-50% chances. Norbert Hofer has already threatened to dissolve parliament before 2018 elections, so Austria is braced for political turmoil with fears that victory for a rightwing populist and gun-carrying candidate could trigger snap elections.

But, partly because of claims that he protects himself in the uncertain times of the refugee crisis by carrying a Glock gun, Norbert Hofer scored overwhelming victories in all of Austria’s states apart from Vienna. So, can Van der Bellen, an outsider candidate who ran for office without the official endorsement of the Green party and has criticized the Austrian government’s cap on asylum seekers, stop Hofer from becoming the next President?

In Van der Bellen’s favor goes the fact that the established parties will do their best to stop a rightwing populist from coming to power, but even with that it is hard to make any prognosis. And momentum is with Norbert Hofer whose party will try to frame the following election around the refugees question. Anyway, it will be the first time since 1945 that the president has not come from the two centrist parties, and you can predict at Fairlay who will it be:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/austrian-election-next-president/.

Fairlay market is even at the moment, but what is your opinion on this election? And what are similar markets considering politics that you would like to place your predictions on?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 02, 2016, 08:21:11 PM
Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he has Satoshi Nakamoto’s private PGP key?

Craig  Steven Wright reveals himself as Satoshi Nakamoto! This was worldwide top story this morning, this time announced by BBC, GQ, and The Economist. But, is he really? The Economist followed well with the note ‘Mr Wright could well be Mr Nakamoto, but nagging questions remain’.  Wright tried to present some proofs but they don’t look strong at all, so will he follow them with the stronger ones, and confirm that he is indeed Satoshi Nakomoto?

“We have again asked Mr Wright to provide additional information so we can independently verify that he is in possession of the cryptographic keys that would prove that he is Mr Nakamoto. We have requested that he provide a corrected version of his initial proof. And we have asked him to use private keys he supposedly has in his possession to sign the first paragraph of our first article, including the date, which would be even better proof of his identity,” was written later today on The Economist, as Craig Wright’s claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto came under fire.

So, can Mr Wright prove that he is in possession of cryptographic keys that only Mr Nakamoto should have? “If someone were to successfully sign with the Satoshi PGP key, it would not prove that he is Satoshi,” said Jerry Brito, the executive director of Coin Center. But, it would certainly be the first step and, as this is trending topic in Bitcoin community, you now have an open market on Fairlay ‘Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he has Satoshi Nakamoto’s private PGP key?’:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-craig-steven-wright-prove-that-he-has-satoshi-nakamotos-private-pgp-key/.


Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he is the miner of block 1?

Other evidence that Craig Steven Wright is indeed Satoshi Nakamoto could be proving that he is the miner of early blocks. In his today’ blog post Wright said that he does indeed control the key for block 9 and gave a step-by-step explanation of how this can be proven. He has also demonstrated this verification in person to The Economist - both for block 9, and block 1, though such demonstrations can be stage-managed.

The Economist writer says that “as far as we can tell he indeed seems to be in possession of the keys, at least for block 9”. Problem is that Wright doesn’t want to make public the proof for block 1, arguing that block 9 contains the only bitcoin address that is clearly linked to Nakamoto. But, if he wants to prove that he is the real Satoshi, he will need to do this as well, so here is another Fairlay market – ‘Will Craig Steven Wright prove that he is the miner of block 1?’:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-craig-steven-wright-prove-that-he-is-the-miner-of-block-1/.

What is your opinion on this Craig Steven Wright topic? Do you think that he is a smart fraud, or he can really provide some of the proof? But even if he provides some of them, will that be enough to prove that he is Satoshi Nakamoto? Many questions are currently open, plenty of people want to close them as soon as possible, so hurry up to place your predictions at Fairlay, and suggest your own markets considering this, or any other relevant topic.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 03, 2016, 12:35:47 PM
Will Gary Lineker keep his word and present Match of the Day in his underwear?

Last night Leicester City defied 5000-1 odds to become Premier League champion and thus one of the most beautiful sport stories ever got its perfect ending. Plenty of their fans made huge money by using these incredible odds, but it is now time for their most popular fan to keep his words:

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/12/14/22/2F608C9400000578-0-image-a-104_1450133751880.jpg

Former England football captain Gary Lineker, who has been presenting BBC TV’s principal football programme Match of the Day since 1999, made the pledge that he will do the first MOTD of the next season in just his undies, if his former and local club makes the most unlikely of championship wins. Leicester did it, so it is time for him to keep his word.

In March Lineker confirmed he will remain true to his word and appear before millions of television viewers in his underwear. Now you have an open market at Fairlay will he, on August 13, indeed present MOTD in his underwear, but note that it is resolved as No if he wears it over his trousers:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/gary-lineker-to-present-motd-in-his-underwear/.


Is Jose Mourinho going to coach Zlatan Ibrahimovic in Manchester United next season?

As football season is getting towards its end, there is plenty of transfer talk, and it is not only about players but also about managers. With Jose Mourinho being free since December, his next club is one of the trending topics in football community. From the biggest world clubs, to some national teams, to even Leeds United’s boss asking him to show how big he is by training club that doesn’t have world's top players.

But, after months of talks, it looks like Jose Mourinho will once again be in the English Premier League as he is close to making a deal with Manchester United, and there are talks that it could be confirmed even this week. But, Paris Saint-Germain wants him as its manager as well, as plenty of clubs do, so now you can make your prediction at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/jose-mourinhos-next-club/.

https://ngonoo.com/engine/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/jose-mourinho-zlatan-ibrahimovic-e1425986674552-980x412.jpg

And, if he comes to Manhcester United, will he be followed by Zlatan Ibrahimovic  who in March joked that he will stay at Paris Saint-Germain if his statue replaces the Eiffel Tower. So, his chances to stay in France are small, but where will he go next? Manchester United is indeed his first option, but plenty of English Premier League clubs are as well.

Arsenal and Chelsea are not big surprises, but it is a bit of surprise that West Ham want him in its team. If he doesn't go to England, there are even chances that he could leave Europe for some big money in China or in one of the MSL teams. Anyway, there are chances that he and Jose Mourinho will be in Manchester United next season, but you have great odds if you guess right Zlatan's next club, weather it is United or any other:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/zlatan-ibrahimovics-next-club/.

What is your opinion on these markets, and what other Football Specials would you like to have created at Fairlay?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 04, 2016, 12:00:31 PM
Ted Cruz is out, so will John Kasich drop out before June?

Last night it was officially confirmed: There will be no “Stop Trump” candidate, not after his 15-plus-point win in Indiana.

Donald Trump won Indiana Primary with 53.3%, Ted Cruz dropped out of presidential race after losing Indiana with 36.6%, and the last man standing against Trump is John Kasich who won 7.6% last night. So, if Cruz dropped out of race, why is Kasich, who won in total only 153 delegates, staying in it?

“Tonight’s results are not going to alter Gov. Kasich’s campaign plans,” read the memo from Kasich chief strategist John Weaver. “Our strategy has been and continues to be one that involves winning the nomination at an open convention.”

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--nWodPYnk--/p87vapxt2hci3otoaxpg.jpg

Since last night it is clear that Trump will win nomination before open convention, so Kasich can give up as well. Will he?

He has only won one contest, his home state of Ohio, and is currently in fourth place in the delegate race. Even Marco Rubio, who left the race in March, still has more delegates than Kasich. Still, it looks like he doesn’t want to give up before Trump wins 1,237 delegates. Many say he is delusional.

And Trump is now 190 delegates short, with four primaries more in May. Thus the question is, will John Kasich drop out before June and ending primaries, or he will stay till the end? Here is Fairlay market for you to place your prediction:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-john-kasich-drop-out-before-june-1/.

What is your opinion on John Kasich, is he really delusional? And what other Presidential markets you want to bet on?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 05, 2016, 02:15:01 PM
Who will Donald Trump choose as a Republican Vice Presidential Candidate?

With both Ted Cruz and John Kasich out of the race after losing Indiana Primary, it is sure that Donald Trump will be Republican Candidate for the President. So, now it is time to reopen question of his Vice Presidential Candidate.

If someone is unpredictable then it is Donald Trump, so at the moment all the different names are in contest. Especially with the fact that Trump's inner circle remains devoid of establishment types, so we quickly get into a situation where the people talking don't know much and the people who do know aren't talking. But, few names are talked about.

"I think Chris Christie is fantastic," Trump said recently. And no one has risked more with his support for Trump than Christie, who has been roundly mocked and dismissed by the GOP establishment for the decision, and two of them look like a good match. But the problem could be that Christie doesn't add a ton to the Trump ticket. Does Trump care?

But if Trump wanted to add a ton to his ticket, Joni Ernst would be a great option. She has been critical of Trump's comments about women but she is a gifted communicator and someone who might help sell Trump to the Midwestern voters he badly needs if he wants to be competitive with Clinton. So, could she be the perfect choice?

And we also have people who recently raced against him, like John Kasich who gave up just last night and who was on rather friendly terms with Trump throughout the race. Or Marco Rubio who could help Trump with outreach to establishment Republicans and help Trump to avoid an electoral disaster in the Hispanic community.

And there are few more popular names like Newt Gingrich or Susana Martinez, or even Ben Carson and Jeff Sessions. Anyway, all is far from certain so any option on your Vice Presidential Candidate offers great odds at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republican-vice-presidential-candidate/.

So, who is your favorite for the Republican Candidate for Vice President, and do you want some similar markets created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 06, 2016, 03:52:47 PM
Is Bernie Sanders about to win West Virginia Democratic primary? Or can Hillary prevail?

After win in Indiana this Tuesday, Bernie Sanders is positive he can win West Virginia Democratic primary following Tuesday. He is a rather big favorite, but can Hillary prevail as recent polls show that she is not without chances, as many think?

Metro News West Virginia Poll announced today that in the Democratic presidential race, 47 percent of likely Democratic voters backed Sanders, 43 percent said they supported Hillary Clinton, and 11 percent were not sure.

As it was all year, Sanders’ strength is among people between the ages of 18 and 34, and he hopes there will be a high turnout with young voters. But his other strength is Donald Trump who tweeted today: ‘Crooked Hillary has ZERO leadership ability. As Bernie Sanders says, she has bad judgment. Constantly playing the women's card - it is sad!’

So, it looks like Trump can help Bernie win West Virginia. At the same time, the fact that West Virginia holds semi-open primaries goes in Hillary’s favor. Anyway, Bernie is the favorite but those who think Hillary could prevail, despite being attacked by Donald Trump, have great odds on her win at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-west-virginia-democratic-primary/.


What is your opinion on this primary, and what other US Presidential Election markets would you like to see created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: martha5dool on May 06, 2016, 04:03:17 PM
Ethereum launch process should be Metropolis (that will open gates to the masses)


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 07, 2016, 02:29:18 PM
Who did Negan kill in the season finale of The Walking Dead?

A month ago the AMC drama ‘The Walking Dead’ finally introduced Jeffrey Dean Morgan as the comic series' dastardly villain Negan, setting the stage for an all-out war to come in season seven. But the season six finale didn’t answer the biggest burning question on everyone's minds:

Who dies?

As expected, comics villain Negan made his debut in the closing scene of the 90-minute season finale when he lined up the survivors and, with his baseball bat covered in barbed wire, took a swing at one of them. However, the series cuts to black and the audio reveals only the brutal and savage sounds as Negan beats an unseen member of the group to death.

Who did Negan kill?

By failing to identify whom Negan whacks, the zombie drama is able to keep fans guessing when it comes to which of the beloved characters (Rick, Michonne, Glenn, Daryl, Rosita, Carl, Maggie, Aaron, Eugene, Abraham or Sasha) has met their maker. In the comics Negan killed Glenn and many think that this character had same fate in TV Series.

Did Negan kill Glenn?

Season seven premiere, scheduled for October 9 this year, will show us who was at the end of that bat. Many think that it could be Rosita, others are sure that it is Abraham, there are articles opened with 'Poor Eugene' but nothing is certain. If you watch this TV Series, you certainly have your opinion and now you also have an open market at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-did-negan-kill/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 09, 2016, 02:41:33 PM
Who will be the next Spanish prime minister? Mariano Rajoy, Pedro Sanchez or someone else?

The 2015 Spanish general election was held on December 20, but no party secured a majority in this election, which had resulted in the most fragmented parliament since 1977. After months of negotiations, the four parties with the most seats were unable to reach an agreement and form a coalition government, leading to a fresh election in this year.

This was the first time in Spanish recent history that an election was triggered as a result of failure in the government formation process, and many hope this will change with the 2016 Spanish general election that will be held on June 26.

Still, is anything about to change? The latest poll of polls data from Electograph shows only minor changes compared to the results of the last general election on December 20, 2015. No party is currently forecast to be close to an overall majority, of 176 out of 350 seats in Congress, which history suggests requires at least 44% of the vote.

The order of the parties remains the same: PP, PSOE, Podemos, Ciudadanos and United Left. Thus Mariano Rajoy, leader of the conservative People’s party, is still given the biggest chances to be the next Spanish prime minister.

Second option is Spain’s Socialist party leader Pedro Sanchez, while none of other names is too popular at the moment, though following general election could change that. Will someone else prevail, or can Mariano Rajoy, who has been almost entirely absent from the recent political drama in Spain, prevail once again? Predict at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-be-the-next-spanish-prime-minister/.
 
What is your opinion on recent political drama in Spain, and what other politics markets would you like to have created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 10, 2016, 06:09:54 PM
It’s Eurovision time! Who will win this year? Russia, France, someone else?

Okay, it is still four days till the Grand Final scheduled for May 14, but tonight’s Semi Final 1 will be interesting as well. We will see Russia who is by far the biggest favorite to be the final winner on Saturday, but also to win tonight. Armenia, which is also one of the big favorites, is scheduled for tonight as well as 16 other nations.

You have an hour more to predict your Eurovision Song Contest 2016 - Semi Final 1 Winner:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-1-winner/.

Semi Final 2 is scheduled for Thursday and that night most of the focus will be on Ukraine which chances improved a lot in the last few days, so Ukraine is the first favorite to win the Semi Final 2 as well. But we will also see Australia that is a rather popular bet, while Latvia, Bulgaria, Serbia and plenty other nations want a surprise win.

No need to hurry, you have two days more to predict Eurovision Song Contest 2016 - Semi Final 2 Winner:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-semi-final-2-winner/.

So, you have two evenings to hear all the songs and choose your favorite for the Grand Final scheduled for Saturday, and besides Russia and Ukraine, Sweden and France are also given rather big chances for the final win. They are already in the final, but you should hurry if you want to bet on them as odds could change after the semis.

You have four days more to predict the final Winner of Eurovision Song Contest 2016, but hurry up:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/.

Who is your favorite? And don’t forget that you can suggest some additional markets for the final evening as well.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 11, 2016, 11:29:15 AM
Can Sanders make another surprise by defeating Hillary in Kentucky?

‘She's on a course to win the Democratic nomination, but still piling up losses,’ was one of the comments about last night’s West Virginia Democratic primary. Bernie Sanders won it with 51% to Hillary’s 36%, though it doesn’t matter a lot in delegate tracker that Hillary leads with 2,239 to 1,469 (with 2,383 delegates needed for nomination).

But, these results do matter to Hillary as she is already starting her campaign against Donald Trump, so the next Tuesday will be important as well. It is time for closed primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. Sanders is favorite in Oregon but it will be especially interesting to see can he defeat Hillary in Kentucky as well.

Few months ago, Kentucky primaries looked like a sure win for Clinton but suddenly she had to start investing in Kentucky television advertisements, as she is with almost weekly results highlighting her relative weaknesses with white men and young voters. And Kentucky is a closed primary where only Democrats can compete.

As for Sanders, he has been the leading candidate for campaign donations coming from Kentucky for three straight months, according to an analysis performed by the Kentucky Center for Investigative Reporting. So, can this mean that he is about to win Kentucky as well? He is not without chances so make your prediction at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-kentucky-democratic-primary/.

What is your opinion on Kentucky Democratic primary, and what other primary markets do you want to see created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 12, 2016, 12:27:21 PM
Will Oregon Democratic primary bring another win for ‘out of chances’ Bernie Sanders?

As Politico's David Wade writes, we already know Sanders isn’t going to win the Democratic Party’s nomination; Hillary Clinton has amassed more than 92 percent of the delegates needed to secure the nomination, and she’ll easily pick up the rest. So right now, Sanders’ campaign is the walking dead: a zombie.

Sanders needs to think long and hard about the big cost of criticizing the now-prohibitive Democratic front-runner. He didn’t set out to become Trump’s best ghostwriter for the general election, but that is the role continued attacks on Clinton risk earning him. Without math or momentum on his side, isn’t it better for Sanders to finish the campaign as a happy warrior and build a long-term movement for campaign finance reform?

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/wb_9OYXeCjI/maxresdefault.jpg

He could help Hillary Clinton win big and sweep in a Democratic majority in the Senate. He could become a powerful committee chairman. He could return to the next Senate as one of its most influential players. And for an Independent socialist from Vermont who started this campaign as an asterisk, that’s a political revolution in itself.

He could. But Bernie is not doing that and he is going towards another win in Oregon next Tuesday, with Kentucky primaries being held the same day. Oregon polls are not great and do not show much but many think that recent momentum is not enough for Sanders to close and that Hillary has good chances as well. Fairlay market does not show that so if you think that Hillary has at least even chances you have great odds at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-oregon-democratic-primary/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 12, 2016, 02:10:55 PM
As always, you can suggest your own Fairlay markets at this topic, but it's now also possible to create any market instantly without approval at https://www.fairlay.com/user/event/new.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 13, 2016, 05:13:37 PM
Who will finish last, and what will 1-2 order be in Eurovison Grand Final?

After two Semi Finals, Grand Final of Eurovision Song Contest 2016 is scheduled for tomorrow at 21.00 CET. Russia is still the favorite for the win, while Australia, Ukraine, Sweden, and France are give good chances as well:

Eurovision Song Contest 2016 – Winner:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-winner/.


You have probably placed your market on the Eurovision winner, but sometimes people are interested in losers as well. So, who will finish last? That race is far more interesting and we are without the real favorite for the last place.

Both Germany and United Kingdom could finish last as big nations are often among the last ones, but currently it is Georgia with the biggest chances to finish at the bottom. Hurry up to place your prediction on the biggest loser at:

Eurovision Song Contest 2016 - To Finish Last:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-to-finish-last/.


Voting system is always interesting to follow and when the votes are given it is not only about the leader but also about the runner up. So, in order to make the Grand Final more interesting you can now also predict 1-2 finish:

Eurovision Song Contest 2016: 1-2 Forecast:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eurovision-song-contest-2016-1-2-forecast/.


So, most think that Russia will be followed by Australia, or Ukraine, or even France. But, what is your opinion? Can someone else be Eurovision winner against all the odds on Russia? Who is your favorite for the Grand Final?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 17, 2016, 03:53:47 PM
Who will be Hillary’s Vice Presidential Candidate? Kaine? Castro? Perez? First Husband Bill?

It is almost certain that Hillary Clinton will be Democratic Presidential Nominee, so it is time to think about her Vice Presidential Candidate. There are plenty of names, most of them mentioned as the great option in the recent months. Still, that position is still far from the closed so here is the Fairlay market where you can now make your own prediction:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-candidate/.

As you see, the biggest chances are currently given to Sen. Tim Kaine, a friend of President Barack Obama who is widely admired in the West Wing. But many think that at 58 he’d be too old to provide a generational contrast to the 68-year old Clinton, and too white for a campaign being defined by immigration reform and Trump’s attacks on minorities.

Thus, Sen. Elizabeth Warren is also not the best option, though she is amongst the favorites. So, we could have the under-the-radar choice with the name of Tom Perez who checks every box Clinton’s going to need if she is the nominee: progressives, unions, African-Americans, Obama loyalists, Latinos. But, Julian Castro is also near that group of people.

And some think that Xavier Becerra is among Latinos that Hillary could pick. Still, many think that being 57 he is also too old. With this logic, with 47, Cory Booker could be a good option and he is also a black man. In the end, Bernie Sanders is the one who is loved by the young people, so could he be a surprise Democratic Candidate for Vice President?

All in all, plenty of names are talked about and there will always be those who think that the First Husband, and former President, Bill Clinton could be a perfect Vice President. So, it is Hillary’s time to choose and if you think that you know who will her candidate be, you have great odds on any of the names at Fairlay market, so hurry up to pick one:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-candidate/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 18, 2016, 02:03:13 PM
Is Bernie Sanders able to make a surprise win in the California Democratic primary?

“No one can predict the future, but I think we have a real shot to win primaries in a number of the states that will be coming up. And don't tell Secretary Clinton because she might get nervous,” said Bernie Sanders to his supporters in Carson, California after winning Oregon and losing Kentucky by a small margin last night. “I think we're going to win here in California.”

So, though Hillary has a strong lead in the delegate race, Sanders is showing no signs of backing down. In fact, Sanders has vowed to take his fight all the way until the June 14 voting in the District of Columbia and beyond to the July convention in Philadelphia.

With all of this, Hillary Clinton's Kentucky win was just a joyless victory in a week that exposed a deep Democratic rift. And now the only question is will Sanders use his momentum in the June primaries. And the most important one is one in California, scheduled for Tuesday, June 6, as it gives 475 delegates, far more than any other country does.

Now, Hillary is likely to build a brisk campaign schedule for the coming stretch, hoping to minimize her opponent’s delegate count. California polls are certainly going in her favor, as the most recent ones show that she has a strong 49.7% to 40.6% lead, with 7.6% undecided.

Sanders recently had some bad news as a handful of high-level staffers left his campaign, including three of the four members of his original senior leadership team in California. This, and the fact that he lost all the big states, put Hillary as a big favorite, but if you think that Sanders can use his recent momentum to win California as well, you have great odds at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/.

What is your opinion on the California primary, and what other June primaries markets would you like to bet on?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 22, 2016, 01:14:09 PM
Will Florida pass the medical marijuana initiative in 2016?

Forida voters overwhelmingly support legalization of medical marijuana, pollsters said recently, and most also favor legalization of recreational pot use. Medical pot smoking in already on the November ballot, so it is time to put it at Fairlay market as well:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/florida-to-pass-the-medical-marijuana-initiative-in-2016/.

So, according to the market, Florida Right to Medical Marijuana Initiative is likely to pass this time. Still, many think that medical marijuana supporters shouldn't count on a victory just yet. Does that mean that predicting No on this market could be a smart choice?

Support for medical marijuana was also high before the 2014 election, but before an opposition campaign raised doubts among voters. Opponents have promised a vigorous opposition effort this year, which again could drive down support.

Also, the constitutional amendment requires 60 percent of the vote to pass. And few days ago the well-funded campaign opposing Florida’s medical marijuana ballot initiative released a new video advertisement calling the proposal a ‘scam to legalize pot.’

What is your opinion on this market, and do you want to see some similar ones created as well? And don't forget that already have an open market on whether California will legalise marijuana in 2016. So, use your time to also predict that one at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/california-to-legalise-marijuana-in-2016/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 23, 2016, 11:07:19 AM
What will be the End of the year price of Bitcoin? Under $500, or even over $600?

Bitcoin price is always a popular topic, but even more recently as we are less than two months away from the Halving and many think that it will change the price of bitcoin. Change it a Lot. But how much is a lot?

Because of this you already have Fairlay market about the Price of Bitcoin 30 days after the Halving (https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/price-of-bitcoin-30-days-after-the-halving/), but some think that 30 days after the Halving is rather short period of time in the context of bigger change.

Okay, so what will happen till the end of the year? Many think that recent period without bigger changes is the sure sign that the huge ones are coming, and even some of the experts think that the price will not be in hundreds but in thousands.

Still, you all know that those overestimations are rarely true, but can Bitcoin price at the end of the year close at $600 or higher? That isn’t such a huge number and it is one of the options at Fairlay ‘End of the year price of Bitcoin’ market that you can find here:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-bitcoin/.


If you think that excitement with Halving is not a good thing and that other factors influence the price even more, then you can predict that the price will stay under $500 even at the end of the year.

Anyway, you now have another Bitcoin price related market open and thus you can earn even more of them if you predict right the range at which Bitcoin will be at the end of this year. As usual, you can suggest your own Bitcoin related markets. So, which other ones would you like to have created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 24, 2016, 01:14:20 PM
Will Sanders close South Dakota, and will Hillary win in New Mexico on the penultimate voting day?

It is another Tuesday, but this time with nothing interesting on the US Presidential Election scene. All is finished with the Republicans, so we can focus even more on June 7, the penultimate voting day in the Democratic primary. You already have at Fairlay offer market for California primary and you can make your prediction on it at:

California Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/
.

California is one of the six states holding a Democratic primary on June 7, alongside North Dakota, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota and New Mexico, all of them before Washington, D.C., on June 14. And though it is almost sure that Hillary will be Democratic nominee, it will be interesting to see how much will Sanders harm her to the end.

He is a huge favorite to win Montana and North Dakota, but it will be interesting to see can he easily close South Dakota as well. Many think that it is one of the closest races left, but demographics of the state favor Bernie. But recently even Bill Clinton held a South Dakota campaign event on behalf of his wife. So can that help Hillary? Predict at:

South Dakota Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-south-dakota-democratic-primary/
.

And though she could lose both North and South Dakota, as well as Montana, Hillary is a large favorite to win New Jersey, while she hopes that she can add to it California and New Mexico. Demographics of New Mexico favor Hillary, she wins in areas with large Hispanic populations, as well as the fact that New Mexico is a closed primary.

“We’re going to win this state,” Bernie Sanders told a crowd of supporters in Santa Fe few days ago. So, Bernie thinks that he can use his recent momentum to win New Mexico as well. Some even think that Bill doing campaigns on her behalf could hurt Hillary. Can Bernie make a surprise win, or it will be big win for Hillary? Predict at Fairlay:

New Mexico Democratic Primary
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-new-mexico-democratic-primary/
.

So, what do you think about these primaries, and would you like to have some other events created as well?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 25, 2016, 12:41:00 PM
Will Paul Ryan endorse Donald Trump for president these days?

As there is not much fuss with the primaries, popular topic that emerged these days is will, and when, Paul Ryan endorse Donald Trump for president? With this move he would end a nearly unprecedented standoff between the House speaker and his party’s presumptive presidential nominee.

Trump’s campaign manager, Paul Manafort, told that he expects Ryan to endorse the party’s nominee as early as this week, but on the other side Ryan aides say nothing has been decided about a possible Trump endorsement.

And, as many think that the endorsement will come in the following days, others are sure that Ryan will continue to distance himself from the combative Trump enough to leave him in a good position to run in 2020 if the billionaire is trounced in November.

Also, for Ryan to endorse Trump, he would have to explain away deep divisions between his positions and Trump’s. But if he decides to endorse publicly, that wouldn’t matter so much. So, what will Paul Ryan do? Predict at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-paul-ryan-endorse-donald-trump-for-president-before-june-15/
.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 26, 2016, 12:17:21 PM
The UK's EU referendum: Will UK remain, what will be remain vote %, and what turnout %?

We are less than a month away from the UK's EU referendum scheduled for Thursday, 23 June. People of the UK will on that day decide whether Britain should leave or remain in the European Union.

And though few months ago many thought that the UK will easily leave the European Union, recent opinion polls show that its people will probably vote to stay in the EU. Still, if you think that voting for leaving the European Union is still possible, then you can use great odds on this option at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.

You can also follow by predicting the official % of votes that will go in favor of staying in the EU. Are we going to have some huge surprises like less than 40% people voting to remain, or even over 70%?

Still, some realistic results are more favorable, like that in the range of the 55.01% - 60% votes to remain. But, nothing is sure so if you can predict the right percentage of votes to remain in the EU in the UK’s EU referendum, then you can as well use great odds that you have on offer at Fairlay market:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-to-remain-vote-percentage/.

And, what about referendum turnout? Will recent polls that people want to vote in the favor of staying stop people from even voting? Or will turnout be huge? You can go with 67.5% and under; or 67.6% and over, so predict at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-referendum-turnout/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 27, 2016, 01:23:35 PM
Will Donald Trump once again lead Hillary Clinton in polling, at the start of June?

Few days ago, for the first time in this long election campaign, Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Hillary Clinton in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. So, Clinton's double-digit lead, which she has held over the past several months, has vanished like it was never there. And it is time to ask how this happened, and what follows next?

Of course, it is not hard to see what happened. Recently, Republicans have rallied around Trump, and according to a Washington Post survey, 85% of Republicans plan to vote for their man. On the other side, Hillary still has a Bernie Sanders problem, and a recent Economist poll shows that among Sanders supporters, 55% would vote for Clinton.

And as the Sanders problem isn't going away, it's still early to predict what will happen in the long run. But, what about the short one? Who will lead polls in seven days, and by which margin? RealClearPolitics shows that yesterday Clinton had +1.0, but before that Trump had a +0.2. So, make your prediction for the poll margins on June 2:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-2/.

Markets are mostly divided about who will have lead in the following polls, and in the following few weeks they will mostly go both side from day to day, but this gives you great odds if you guess the right margin. So, do you think that Sanders will harm Hillary even more in the following days, or could she gain back her big lead in the election polls?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 30, 2016, 01:56:33 PM
Will be a third party candidate in any of the presidential general election debates?

With Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on two sides, this years’ presidential general election debates are going to be all but boring. And the nonpartisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) already announced sites and dates for three presidential and one vice presidential debates during the 2016 general election.

Those three debates will be held in September and October on three different locations, but the most interesting question before the debates start is will there be a third party candidate, one that could favor either Hillary or Trump?

Some think that will not happen as CPD is controlled in a way that keep third parties out, while most agree that Trump will be negative towards the third candidate, and probably say that it is only there to stop him from winning.

But, with this in mind, could the addition of the third party candidate be pushed on by some of the parties in its own interest? Could even Trump favor someone who is likely to take votes away from Hillary, or could be this other way around? As in 1992, when Clinton won with 42% of the popular vote because Perot took votes away from Bush.

At the moment, the only question in can presumed Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson get 15% in an average of five national polls, though he’s been recently polling at 10%. Still, CPD could lower the standards, or even other independent candidate could get the attention. Anyway, both options are opened and now you have an open market at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-be-a-third-party-in-any-of-the-presidential-debates/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 31, 2016, 02:00:49 PM
Who will rule Westeros? Daenerys? Jon Snow? Bran Stark?

Game of Thrones is getting more interesting from week to week, and last night we had the sixth episode of the sixth season. And though this one didn’t Hold the Door, it was another interesting one.

Once again Daenerys showed how much she wants to rule the seven kingdoms, so it is probably the right time to ask a big question: Who will rule Westeros? We are out of books, series is going on its own and the end is near.

So, who will rule it? Will Daenerys use her dragons, or Bran Stark his powers, or Jon Snow his… well, how much lives those he exactly has? Those free are given biggest chances at the Fairlay market that you can find at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-rule-westeros/.

But, Arya Stark is getting more and more dangerous, and he is again on her own, and Sansa is getting smarter as well. And, what is with Tryrion? He drinks, and he knows things. Can he use that to get to the Iron Throne?

What about all the other Lannisters, Tyrells, Greyjoys, and people like Petyr Baelish? Anyway, you surely have your opinion so share it here, and at the same some use the great odds by predicting (hopefully right) the ruler of Westeros.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 02, 2016, 06:26:04 PM
Will either Democrats or Republicans control both Congress and the White House after the elections?

We are five months and six days away from the US Elections, and it is time to once again ask a question about the chances that one party takes complete control after them with the undivided government, by taking control of both Congress and the White House. So, what are the chances for this to happen?

At the moment, it looks like this could happen to Republicans before it happens to Democrats. They are already in control of Congress, though that could change as they are they’re defending 24 of the 34 Senate seats up in 2016. And nowadays Donald Trump has much bigger chances for the win, then he had few months ago.

Republicans to control both Congress and the White House after the elections:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republicans-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections-1/.


Still, as Republicans are defending 24 of the 34 seats up in 2016, Democrats are pleased with the fact that seven of those are in states that voted for Obama. Not once but twice. So, many think that Senate maps looks better and better for Democrats, and Hillary should win as well. But, will she indeed, or will Trump stop her?

Republicans to control both Congress and the White House after the elections:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democrats-to-control-both-congress-and-the-white-house-after-the-elections-1/.


Anyway, there is plenty of options open but if you think any of the parties can form the undivided government, you have great odds on that happening at both Fairlay markets. So, what is your opinion on this?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 03, 2016, 03:44:29 PM
Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on June 9?

Ten days ago it looked like Donald Trump could increase his lead ahead of Hillary Clinton in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, but that didn’t happen.

In fact, after having 0.2% lead from May 21 to May 25, Donald Trump lost it after that and Hillary started to gain the lead back. First with 1.0% lead, and then with the 1.5% lead in the last couple of days.

So, what will happen in the following seven days, till June 9? Many think that Hillary will continue to improve her lead in polling, so you have an option that she will even go over 3.0% lead.

Still, changes are easily made, so those of you who believe polls will go back to Trump’s side have great odds at Fairlay market. Anyway, you have five options so try to predict the right one at:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-9/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 06, 2016, 12:29:03 PM
Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July? Could California primary answer that question?

After four months we have come to the final day of the primaries (not counting the June 14 District of Columbia primary) that could answer another important question: Will Bernie Sanders finally drop out of the race? And this could be decided by the results of the California Primary that is one of the most popular Fairlay primary markets:

Who will win the California Democratic primary?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-win-the-california-democratic-primary-1/.


It is almost sure that even before the first vote is counted in California on Tuesday, the Hillary Clinton campaign and the TV networks will announce that she has clinched the nomination. Still, if he wins California, Bernie Sanders would be more inclined to follow through on his pledge to contest the nomination at the convention. Messy one, indeed.

So, after Tuesday results come in Sanders will have two options: whether to directly acknowledge Hillary’s nomination and drop out of the race or intensify his fight to the July convention in Philadelphia. And, no one knows what will happen while there are plenty different opinions: he should drop, he should stay, he should fight for specific platforms.

Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July 1?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bernie-sanders-drop-out-before-july-1-1/.


Anyway, you surely have your opinion on what should Sanders do, and will he do it. And now you have also have an open market at Fairlay to predict will he drop out from the race before July. And hurry up to predict, because odds could change a lot after California primaries, or maybe Sanders could even drop out tomorrow and thus close the market.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 07, 2016, 01:45:00 PM
Will Donald Trump win the US presidency by a landslide, winning at least 370 electoral votes?

A landslide victory is an electoral victory in a political system, when one candidate or party receives an overwhelming majority of the votes or seats in the elected body, thus all but utterly eliminating the opponents. And, against all odds, it is time to discuss can Doland Trump, as a Republican nominee, win the US presidency by a landslide.

Okay, maybe it is too soon to talk about this as Trump is still behind Hillary in polls for the next President, though he needs to take ’only’ 270 electoral votes to win the 2016 presidential election. In order to win it by a landslide he should take 370 electoral votes. It really looks impossible, but all the things Trump did this year looked impossible as well.

Will the Republican nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-republican-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.


Become of this ’Trump factor’, there is more and more people who think that he can make another surprise, and some like cartoonist Scott Adams tried to explain what candidate Trump is doing to win campaign hearts and minds. Here are the factors that are part of why Adams believes Donald Trump will win the presidency (in a landslide):

1. Trump knows people are basically irrational.
2. Knowing that people are irrational, Trump aims to appeal on an emotional level.
3. By running on emotion, facts don’t matter.
4. If facts don’t matter, you can’t really be “wrong.”
5. With fewer facts in play, it’s easier to bend reality.
6. To bend reality, Trump is a master of identity politics — and identity is the strongest persuader.

So, do you agree with Adams that Trump can use this to win in a landslide? Then use great odds that you have at Fairlay.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 07, 2016, 07:09:48 PM
Will Hillary Clinton win the US presidency by a landslide, winning at least 370 electoral votes?

Earlier today we discussed about Donald Trump's chances to win the US presidency by a landslide, and gave reasons why some of the people think that he indeed could do that, but chances for that are still rather small. Still, if you think that Trump could do that you have an open market at Fairlay, so use the great odds given on that option:

Will the Republican nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-republican-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.


Still, if you think that Trump has no chances, then maybe you think that Hillary could become president with a landslide victory which is an electoral victory in a political system, when one candidate or party receives an overwhelming majority of the votes or seats in the elected body, thus all but utterly eliminating the opponents.

At Fairlay market this means winning at least 370 electoral votes, so can Hillary achieve that? Many of her supporters believe that Trump stands no chances in November, and recent polls favor Hillary as well, though not as much as she was favoured before. Still, if Sanders stands behind her, she could easily defeat Trump by a landslide.

Will the Democratic nominee win the US presidency by a landslide?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-the-democratic-nominee-win-the-us-presidency-by-a-landslide/.


Because of the insulting and divisive style of the Trump campaign, many think that the Democratic electoral advantage will be even greater than in previous presidential elections. The prospect of a Trump presidency will galvanize Democratic voters to come out in huge numbers, so Hillary could win more electoral votes than Obama did in 2012.

So, what is your opinion on this? Can Hillary win in a landslide, or do you give Trump bigger chances to achieve this?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 08, 2016, 05:08:25 PM
All is set for Trump vs. Clinton, but what will be voter turnout? Small one or bigger than ever?

After few months, we are finally set for Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump election. Ted Cruz fought rather long and especially Bernie Sanders fought to the end, but after all we will get one of the most interesting election in the last few decades. But, will they be interesting to voters as well, or only to media?

Voter turnout in 2012 was 129 millions, two millions less than turnout of 131 in 2008, but what will 2016 bring? Some think that both Trump and Hillary are disliked so turnout should be lower than it was in 2012. But, at the same time, other have opinion that people will vote against one of them so turnout should be higher than in 2012.

What will be voter turnout in the US presidential elections?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/what-will-be-voter-turnout-in-the-us-presidential-elections-2/.


Anyway, because of all these factors you now have an open market with six different range of numbers on offer, from under 125 millions, to over 145. And we also have one unenthusiastic candidate Hillary Clinton, and on the other side enthusiastic candidate Donald Trump. So, who will influence more, and what is your opinion on this market?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 09, 2016, 02:35:06 PM
After Hiddleston before, now Aiden Turner is the first favorite. But, who will really be the next James Bond?

Few weeks, many bookmakers have suspended bets on the next James Bond after plenty of bets were placed on Tom Hiddleston. "I don't think that announcement is coming," said Hiddleston few days ago and once again made the next James Bond market rather popular.

At the same time, rumors that Aiden Turner will be the next James Bond emerged from plenty of different sources. Still, Sam Mendes, the man behind Skyfall and Spectre, has done his best to quash rumors that the race to be the next 007 is done and dusted: "It's not a democracy. It's not The X Factor, it's not the EU referendum, it's not a public vote."

Fairlay market for the Next James Bond:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-james-bond-1/.


But, could it be Aiden Turner? He would be the surprise choice but he has numerous positives. If the producers want sexy and suave, they could do little wrong in choosing him. And he's young enough to play Bond in a half-dozen or more films over the next decade and a half.

Still, neither Tom Hiddleston or Tom Hardy are much older, while older Damian Lewis who was frontrunner last year is still among the favorites for the role. It is same with Jamie Bell and Idris Elba who has long been seen as a Bond-in-waiting. But, who (or will any) of them be the next James Bond, and are you good enough to predict the right one?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 13, 2016, 02:01:37 PM
Men’s 100m and 200m in Rio: Usain Bolt vs. Justin Gatlin – who will prevail and become a hero?

We are less than two months away from the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, and thus more of you want to place prediction on the biggest events. But don’t forget that you can also offer suggestions for the smaller ones.

Of course, Men’s 100m race in always amongst the most popular events at it will be once again. And, once again, all eyes will be on Usain Bolt who won gold medals in both London and Beijing. So, can he win another 100m gold this year?

Many think that Justin Gatlin, man who won gold in Athens 2004, is the only one who can stop him, but can Yohan Blake use fight of these two and win the gold after being silver four years ago in London? Eyes of all the world will be on them.

Men's 100m winner in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mens-100m-winner-in-rio/.


Another interesting event will be men’s 200m race that will be held three days after 100m so some will have momentum with them. But Usain Bolt will surely be favorite on August 17, as he also won gold medals in both London and Beijing.

And though everyone will be talking about Justin Gatlin as the man who can stop him, once again Yohan Blake could use his chances, and improve even more after silver in London four years ago. So, who is your favorite to become a hero?

Men's 200m winner in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/mens-200m-winner-in-rio/.


Anyway, both 100m and 200m will be great races and Jamaica could once again be in control of them. At the same time, Justin Gatlin could be under pressure to win gold medals as his USA again wants to be the country with most of them.

Russia has some chances, but it will be USA vs China for the most gold medals won. USA won 46 to 38 in London, China 51 to 36 in Beijing, and it will be interesting to see who will win most gold medals in Rio. Where does your prediction go?

Country to win most gold medals in Rio. Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/country-to-win-most-gold-medals-in-rio/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 14, 2016, 01:37:11 PM
Will Boris Johnson become UK Prime Minister in 2016?

Brexit vote on June 23 will not only decide Britons’ future in or out of the European Union, but also the political future of British Prime Minister David Cameron and his flamboyant rival, Boris Johnson.

Cameron, who is campaigning to remain in the European Union, is in nine days going head to head with the former London mayor, who is leading the campaign for a British exit.

EU Referendum Result:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.


Many say that it is a smart move by Johnson, as Cameron would find it very difficult to remain in office if Britain votes to leave, while some think Cameron will go regardless of the outcome of the referendum.

People think that Johnson will surely be the next UK Prime Minister, but the question is will he become one in 2016? Now you have an open market on this topic at Fairlay, so what is your opinion?

Boris Johnson to become UK Prime Minister in 2016:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-boris-johnson-become-uk-prime-minister-in-2016/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 15, 2016, 02:45:44 PM
Will Marco Rubio change his mind and run for Senate reelection in 2016?

Whether Rubio will change his mind and seek reelection to the Senate is one of the questions of the week. Worried about keeping their Senate majority, a number of Rubio’s colleagues are leaning on him to run. They’ve been joined by a handful of his friends in the House, and a growing chorus of Florida elected officials.

Last week Marco Rubio dismissed questions over whether he would succumb to pressure from Washington and run for reelection in Florida, signaling he still plans to leave the chamber at year's end. "Nothing's changed," Rubio told CNN when asked if he would run for reelection.

https://pajamasmed.hs.llnwd.net/e1/ronradosh/user-content/18/files/2015/11/MarcoRubio1.sized-770x415xc.jpg

Still, recently Rubio faced growing pressure from party leaders for him to reconsider his decision and run for reelection because top Republicans fear their crop of candidates are too weak and underfunded and could cost the party a critical Senate seat in the battle for control in the chamber.

Rubio has said that he's unlikely to run so long as his close friend, Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, remains in the Senate race. Lopez-Cantera has suggested that he's not dropping out. But, top Republicans are hopeful there's time for Rubio to change his mind before the June 24 filing deadline.

Will Marco Rubio run for Senate in 2016? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-marco-rubio-run-for-senate-in-2016/.


So, what is your opinion on this topic? What will Rubio do in the following days, and will he run for Senate reelection?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 16, 2016, 12:07:40 PM
Hillary is improving, so by how many will she lead in polling on June 22?

Less than a month ago, on May 22, Donald Trump took lead against Hillary Clinton in General Election 2016 polls. But, that lead lasted for only three days, and plenty of things changed since then. Clinton got her nomination, Sanders is out of race, and she started to increase her lead in national polls once again.

Ten days ago Clinton had +2.0% lead in the polls, and it’s been going up ever since, to +5.6% yesterday. So, will it stop soon, or will Hillary once again go over double digits lead in the polls, that she had at the middle of April?

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on June 22?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-june-22/.


Now you can use your opinion about this topic at Fairlay market. At the moment, it looks like she will lead next week with +6.0 to 6.9%, but could she go even higher? Or will Donald Trump finally find the way to stop Hillary’s improvement in polls? He did that before, so he could do that once again.

But, people mostly think that Orlando tragedy will go in favor of Hillary, as plenty disapprove Trump’s response to shooting. Anyway, it is always interesting to track how the polls resolve, and don’t forget that you can follow day-to-day polling data at:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 17, 2016, 12:35:57 PM
Will there be a hard fork before July 10 (or August 1) related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?

Hot and burning topic this morning, Ethereum community is shocked by an attack in the DAO. The consequence was price dip in few hours. Because of this, the development community is proposing a soft fork (with no rollback; no transactions or blocks will be “reversed”).

But can we expect hard fork to improve given situation? Thus, you have a new market at Fairlay:

Will there be a hard fork before July 10 related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-there-be-a-hard-fork-before-july-10-related-to-the-attack-on-the-dao-in-ethereum-1/.


And if you think that July 10 is too soon for this to be resolved, there is also a market for August 1:

Will there be a hard fork before August 1 related to the attack on the DAO in Ethereum?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-there-be-a-hard-fork-before-august-1-related-to-the-attack-on-the-dao-in-ethereum/.


So, what is your opinion on this topic, and which side in the market do you predict it to be resolved to?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 20, 2016, 01:52:53 PM
Will Bernie Sanders endorse Hillary Clinton before the Democratic National Convention?

One of the recently most popular political markets at Fairlay was 'Will Bernie Sanders drop out before July 1?' (you can still place your predictions on this one at https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-bernie-sanders-drop-out-before-july-1-1/), but though at first it looked like he will drop out after losing California, he still didn't do that.

So, if he doesn't drop out out of the nomination race before July, will Bernie at least endorse Hillary before the Democratic National Convention set to start on July 25 in Philadelphia. Currently, odds go a bit towards 'Yes', but we already learned that nothing is easy with Bernie.

Will Sanders endorse Hillary before the National Convention?
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/will-sanders-endorse-hillary-before-the-national-convention/.


While some think that he will not endorse Hillary at all, others are sure that he will do that on Convention in order to help her defeat Trump, thus not before. There is also a popular opinion that he will endorse Hillary in the following weeks, but without droping out of the race.

What is your opinion on this market. Will Sanders endorse Clinton soon enough, or go so far to not endorse her at all?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 21, 2016, 12:52:40 PM
Divided we fall: What will be the voting margin in the UK's EU referendum?

‘Please don’t go’ is the headline of the Der Spiegel’s special Brexit issue, that was followed by The Economist’s ‘Divided we fall’, and looks like they worked. In recent days, polls ones again showed that Britons are going towards Remain option on the EU referendum scheduled to take place on Thursday, June 23.

EU Referendum Result, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/eu-referendum-result/.


Still, it is far from closed and it wouldn’t be such a huge surprise even if the UK leaves the EU on Thursday. Most of you surely have your own opinion on what the final result of this vote will be, but can you also guess right the voting margin in the following UK's EU referendum?

The voting margin in the UK's EU referendum, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/what-will-be-the-voting-margin-in-the-uk-s-eu-referendum/.


Currently, most chances are given that Britons will vote Remain, but under 5% margin, though margin between 5% and 10% is also likely to happen. A bit less expect that they will vote Leave under 5% margin, while any other options offers you great odds. So, what is your opinion on the UK's EU referendum?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 22, 2016, 12:27:57 PM
Spain returns to the ballot box on Sunday, so who will be the next Spanish prime minister?

On following Sunday, June 26, for the first time since the end of Francoism, Spaniards will return to the polls because the parliament they elected on December 20 failed to form a new government. With this, Spain’s ultra-stable bipartysm has entered a major crisis, with challenger parties – the leftist Podemos and centrist Ciudadanos – contesting voters and ministerial posts from the mainstream forces, the conservative PP and the socialist PSOE.

And though PP will probably win the most votes, according to polls published recently, it remains without a large enough presence in the lower house to take a second term alone. It is interesting that a majority of voters of ruling PP would consent to its leader and acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy stepping aside if this allowed the party to stay in government. So, does this mean that Mariano Rajoy will not be the next Prime Minister?

Who will be the next Spanish prime minister, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-be-the-next-spanish-prime-minister-1/.


Rajoy, blamed for harsh austerity measures implemented in recent years that crippled the economy as well as political corruption cases at the PP during his leadership, is seen as the main obstacle for other parties to back a PP government. Still, even with this he is the first favorite on the markets, and if a ruling majority cannot be formed after the Sunday vote, Spaniards could potentially be forced to return to the ballot box for the third time in a year.

But, if it is not Rajoy, who could be the next Prime Minister?  Many think that it could be Pablo Iglesias, who has been the Secretary-General of Podemos since 2014. This could happen if grouping of Podemos and United Left beat the once-dominant PSOE and have chance to form government. There are also some who think that it could be Pedro Sanchez, Secretary-General PSOE, but he is with rather small chances. Much smaller than he had in December.

Sunday will give some answers, but can you give them before by predicting right the next Spanish Prime Minister?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 23, 2016, 01:08:43 PM
Who will win the 2016 World Chess Championship, Magnus Carlsen or Sergey Karjakin?

By defeating American star Fabiano Caruana, with the help of a brilliant rook sacrifice, Russian Grandmaster Sergey Karjakin has won the FIDE chess candidates tournament in Moscow in March and will face reigning world champion Magnus Carlsen in a title match this November in New York City.

In the 12 round match scheduled between November 11–30, that is is expected to attract a global online and TV audience of more than 1 billion fans, Carlsen will for the second time try to successfully defend his title, after taking title form Viswanathan Anand in 2013, and defending it in November 2014.

As the two Grandmasters will compete for a prize fund of at least 1 million euros, it will also be the first match for the title between such young players as they are both born in 1990. And prior to this match they have played 19 games at classical time control: Carlsen has won three, Karjakin one, and 15 games ended in a draw.

How interesting this match will be is best described by Chess.com analysist who said that it should finally answer the question from the Fischer-Karpov non-encounter: what will prevail, the genius of an individual or the iron grip of the Soviet team? Carlsen is favorite, but can Karjakin prevail? Predict at Fairlay:

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/magnus-carlsen-nor-series-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-series/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 24, 2016, 01:15:44 PM
David Cameron steps down, so who will be the next UK Prime Minister?

After the UK voted to leave the European Union, Prime Minister David Cameron announced this morning that he will step down by October. He had urged the country to vote Remain but was defeated by 52% to 48%, so Cameron thinks that after this country needs a fresh leadership. And who will that be?

Yes, you surely think of Boris Johnson. Future Prime Minister Boris? His fortunes have soared dramatically as Britons voted to leave the European Union, as he has neatly positioned himself to become a main player in any ensuing Conservative leadership challenge. And exactly that happened today.

Next UK Prime Minister, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-uk-prime-minister/.


As Johnson consistently polls well with Conservative members, Michael Gove has enjoyed recent high popularity levels as well. He was one of the leading figures of the Brexit campaign, and thus some think he could be the next Prime Minister. Again, he has made a number of gaffes during the campaign.

Other think it could be the ‘Ice Queen’, Theresa May, the longest-serving Home secretary in 50 years. She is truly the quiet woman of British politics, but that doesn't mean May isn't interested in running for the leadership of the Party. And what about someone else, like the Chancellor George Osborne?

Anyway, Cameron said that a new leader will be in post by October, so what is your opinion on who will it be?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 27, 2016, 03:46:21 PM
Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten: Who will be Australian Prime Minister after July 2 federal election?

Australian federal election will be held on the following Saturday, July 2, and will determine all 226 members of the 45th Parliament of Australia, as well as the next Australian Prime Minister.

The race for the next Australian Prime Minister is between two party leaders: it will be either Liberal leader, and the current Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull or Labor leader Bill Shorten.

Australian Prime Minister after federal election
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/australian-prime-minister-after-federal-election/.


At the start of the year, Shorten was given almost no chances, but recently he is by some seen as a surprise winner, though Turnbull is still the first favorite with the chances of around 70%.

Recent survey showed that Australians' trust in politicians hit two-decade low, so could this influence following election, and help Shorten? On the other side, recent polls are still not going in his favor.

All in all, Turnbull is a favorite, but so was the stay of the UK in the EU, and it didn’t happen. So, what is your opinion? Could surprise vote in the UK, bring the surprise Prime Minister in Australia?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 28, 2016, 03:46:59 PM
When will Article 50 be triggered? And will it be triggered at all?

Rarely have 250 words been so important – five short, obscure paragraphs in a European treaty that have suddenly become valuable political currency in the aftermath of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Those 250 words are part of the Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty which sets out how an EU country might voluntarily leave the union.

The UK prime minister David Cameron had repeatedly said during the campaign that Article 50 would be triggered immediately if Vote Leave were to win the Brexit referendum. Vote Leave won but Article 50 wasn’t triggered.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/c26e0a21de2a92ab40ffd9d2e6db31780f0f6d99/0_0_3500_2100/master/3500.jpg?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=18e001f333adaba9e3630b78d313f20a

In fact, in his resignation speech, Cameron made it clear he was in no hurry to push the button. “A negotiation with the European Union will need to begin under a new prime minister and I think it is right that this new prime minister takes the decision about when to trigger article 50 and start the formal and legal process of leaving the EU,” he said.

So, if not Cameron these days, who and when will push the button? It is not sure whether will the UK get the new prime minister before the end of the year, and that opens another question: Will article 50 ever be triggered?

When will Article 50 be triggered? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/when-will-article-50-be-triggered/.


Lawyer David Allen Green has suggested in a blogpost, that “the longer article 50 notification is put off, the greater the chance it will never be made ... As long as the notification is not sent, the UK remains part of the EU. And there is currently no reason or evidence to believe that, regardless of the referendum result, the notification will be sent at all.”

Thus, there is now a market on this topic at Fairlay, with five different options: from the one that Article 50 will be triggered before October, to one that it won’t be triggered before July 2017, or not triggered at all. What do you think?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 29, 2016, 04:11:27 PM
Next Scottish independence referendum result: Will Scots vote to leave UK, if they get another chance?

Immediately following the UK referendum on British membership in the EU, in which a narrow majority of UK voters as a whole voted to leave the EU while a majority of Scottish voters voted to remain, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister, said on that a second referendum on Scottish independence was "highly likely".

If the reason was not clear enough, Sturgeon emphasized that the Scottish Government, the devolved legislature of Scotland, would begin preparing legislation to hold a second Scottish independence referendum to secede from the United Kingdom as a consequence of Britain's vote to leave the European Union.

With referendum happening, it would be second Scottish independence referendum after 2014 when Scotland voted to remain part of the United Kingdom, with 55.3% of the electorate voting against the proposal for Scotland to become an independent state and 44.7% voting in favor of the proposal. So, what would happen second time?

Next Scottish independence referendum result, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-scottish-independence-referendum-result/.


But first, will we have the second one? Well, on 26 June 2016, Scottish Secretary David Mundell stated that "if the people of Scotland ultimately determine that they want to have another independence referendum there will be one", implying that the British Government wouldn't prevent another independence referendum.

In the last few days, few of the polls showed that vote ‘For Independence’ leads, and so this vote is a small favorite on the markets as well. And though timetable of the potential referendum is far from confirmed, you can already bet on its potential results. So, what is your opinion on this topic, and would you like to have some similar markets?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 30, 2016, 02:55:04 PM
Today Hillary has a 5.0% lead, but by how much will she lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 6?

CNN announced yesterday that a new Quinnipiac University poll shows Hillary Clinton leading Trump by just two points, 42% to 40%, which is a much closer race than other recent surveys have shown. But, at the same time, polling guru Nate Silver said that Donald Trump has just a 20 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton in November and notes that the former first lady has a lead no candidate has blown in a generation.

What is important for Hillary’s supporters is polling data at RealClearPolitics where she has +6.0 or Over lead for the five straight days, though it went down to 5.0% today, after being at 6.8% two days before. So, where will it stop in seven days? Can Hillary keep her lead above 6.0% or even move it over 7.0%, or will Donald start to move it down?

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 6? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-july-6/.


And as Democrats are not pleased with the fact that Hillary’s polling lead is not higher, Fox News announced that 51% of registered Republican voters said they would rather have a different nominee over Donald Trump, so does that mean that future polling will hardly go in his favor? Anyway, you have four different polling options at Fairlay, and good odds if you guess right in which range polling numbers will be next Wednesday, July 6.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 01, 2016, 05:10:43 PM
Who will Donald Trump choose as a Republican Vice Presidential Candidate?

Republican National Convention is set to be held July 18–21, so in the following two weeks Donald Trump should choose his Vice Presidential Candidate that will be announced on the Convention. And though in the recent weeks multiple high-level Republican sources confirmed the names on the short list, final name is still not known.

And, as most knew before, that list is topped by former House Spekaer New Gingrich who is the first favorite on the markets. He is followed by Chris Christie, New Jersey Gov., and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions. There are few names more, but many think that one of those will try to help Trump to become the next President.

Republican Vice Presidential Candidate, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republican-vice-presidential-candidate-1/.


Both Gingrich and Christie are skilled communicators who could bring political experience that Trump lacks. And they both want this job, as Trump for plenty of reasons struggled to get support from some of the popular Republicans. Christie is also high on the list, as he is one of the first establishment Republicans to endore Trump.

But, could someone out of these three become the vice presidential candidate, someone like Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin? Probably not, as New York Times also announced today that Trump is considering Gingrich and Christie as his possible running mates, while he started his vetting process. So, what is your opinion?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 02, 2016, 01:08:14 PM
Will Tim Kaine be Hillary’s safe vice presidential candidate, or will she decide to risk a bit with someone else?

How important the dates of National Conventions can be had been shown once again this year as Democrats have a big advantage of holding their convention second, so Hillary Clinton can make her final vice presidential decision with the full knowledge of the Republicans ticket. With this in mind, she won’t hurry though both Conventions (July 18–21 for Repubicans and July 25–28 for Democrats) are in few weeks time.

Republican Vice Presidential Candidate, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/republican-vice-presidential-candidate-1/.


And as Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie are first favorites to be on the ticket with Donald Trump, it is Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine who is emerging as the leading candidate on the Hillary’s short list. Kaine has executive experience, solidity, values, critical state and overall profile as someone who would be a good vice president. He even came to Hillary two years ago, and over the past year traveled to seven states as her surrogate.

Still, with Hillary running for the President, many progressive-leaning Democrats would like to see historic two-woman ticket, and it could be provided if Hillary chooses Sen. Elizabeth Warren as her veep. Warren would also soothe the hurt feelings of millions of Bernie Sanders supporters who find great appeal in the message of an economic system that is rigged for those at the top.

Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate, predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/democratic-vice-presidential-candidate-1/.


Only problem is lack of any personal relationship between Hillary and Warren to draw on. With this in mind, there are opinions that Julian Castro, Sherrod Brown, or Tom Perez would be better options. And there is also talk about few dark horses, like Minnesota Sen. Al Franken. Anyway, Hillary has luck that she has time to look at all the options. So, what is your opinion? Will she go with Tim Kaine as a safe card, or risk with someone else?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 05, 2016, 02:54:03 PM
Who will be the next French president? Alain Juppe, Marine Le Pen? Or again Francois Hollande, or Nicolas Sarkozy?

'Call me Madame Frexit,' said last year Marine Le Pen, the head of France’s far-right National Front, who recently announced that she would hold a referendum on the country’s membership in the EU within six months of attaining power, unless France can end the free movement of people and leave the ‘failed’ euro.

Few days ago Alain Juppé, front-runner to become French president in next year's election, said he wants to move the UK border back on British soil. "The logic requires that border controls should take place on British soil," he said. However, in regards of Brexit, Juppé also added everything was "up for negotiation."

At the same time, French President Franocis Hollande has seen his popular support plummet down to just 12 percent, as 86 percent said they did not like the way Hollande was tackling the country’s problems? So, who will be the next French president as presidential election is scheduled for April 23, 2017 for the first round and May 7, 2017 for the runoff?

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-french-president/.


And as Hollande has said before he will decide by the end of this year whether to run again, he is not given huge chances to be reelected. In fact, former president Nicolas Sarkozy stands bigger chances to regain country’s power, though he has not formally declared his intention to be elected but is widely believed to wish to do so.

However, on November 20 and 27, Sarkozy's Republicans are organizing their first ever primary, and Sarkozy will he have to defeat former foreign affairs minister and prime minister Alain Juppé, who is currently mayor of Bordeaux. But, at the same time, Juppé is given by far the biggest chances to become the next French president.

Though some polls put National Front leader Marine Le Pen, who intends to represent her far-right movement, in the lead in the first round, but they show that she is likely to lose the runoff. All in all, a lot of different thing is happening in European politics these days, and now you can also predict the next French president. So, who is your favorite?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 06, 2016, 03:55:36 PM
Austrian far right gets second chance at presidency with vote re-run: Who will become president on October 2?

At the end of May, we had interesting market on the Austrian presidential election in which Norbert Hofer of the anti-immigration and anti-EU Freedom Party was a rather favorite to become the next Austrian president but on May 22 he lost to former Greens leader Alexander Van der Bellen by less than one percentage point, or around 31,000 votes.

Still, last Friday Austria's highest court has annulled the result of this presidential election narrowly lost by the candidate of the far-right Freedom Party. The party had challenged the result, saying that postal votes had been illegally and improperly handled. Thus, the election will now be re-run on October 2 this year. And who will win them this time?

Next Austrian President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-austrian-president/.

So, Austria’s Freedom party will get another go at providing the first far-right president in the EU. And, while the Austrian presidency is a largely ceremonial role, Hofer’s comment in a TV debate that “you will be surprised by what can be done by a president” had given rise to fears that he could make use of powers to dissolve parliament once in office.

“I will stand again in this run-off election, and I intend to win again – don’t let that be misunderstood”, said Van der Bellen who was due to be sworn in as president on Friday, July 8. But now he will have to fight again in October, and it will surely be a tight race once again. Currently, Van der Bellen is a small favorite but what do you think who will prevail?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 07, 2016, 04:34:31 PM
RealClearPolitics polling: Trump lowered it under 5.0, but Hillary is back to 5.0 lead. What will happen next?

After Hillary Clinton increased her lead in RealClearPolitics polling to 6.8 ten days ago, Trump and his campaign managed to lower it under 5.0 in the last week, but today Hilary closed polling at 5.0 lead. So, what will happen next?

In the focus today, and probably following days, is the news that FBI Director James Comey confirmed that some of Hillary Clinton's statements and explanations about her email server to the House Benghazi Committee last October were not true, as evidenced by the bureau's investigation into whether she mishandled classified information.

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 13? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-july-13/.


So, could this influence Hillary’s polling? Some think that she will go down under 4.9% lead on July 13, and if you have same opinion you have great odds at the moment. Range of 5.0% to 5.9% is still in lead and most likely to happen. But, at the same time, Donald Trump is not quiet either, so could Hillary again go over 6.0% lead in the next seven days?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 08, 2016, 01:57:46 PM
The British pound has become the world's worst performing currency, where will it be at the end of 2016?

Following the referendum result, the British pound has become the world's worst performing currency, falling even behind the Argentinian peso. At the same time, it is confirmed that either Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom will be Britain's next Prime Minister so could this help pound to recover, or will it go way more down by the end of the year?

Next UK Prime Minister, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-uk-prime-minister-1/.


Some think that British pound will go so down that it could hit history-making dollar parity by end of 2016. Though, more analysts predict $1.20-$1.30 could hold for sterling this year. Yesterday it closed at $1.29, after being at $1.49 on June 23, before the referendum results came in.

"While GBP has already seen steep declines across the board we think it remains vulnerable to a prolonged decline even from these levels. Our current forecast profile sees GBPUSD falling to $1.20 by the end of this year ($1.25 by end-Q3)," says Ned Rumpeltin at TD Securities.

GBP vs USD: Value of Pound at year end, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/gbp-vs-usd-value-of-pound-at-year-end/.


So, where do you think pound value will stop at the end of the year? Fairlay market, like most analysts, gives the biggest chances that on December 31 it will be in range between $1.21 to $1.40, but range of $1.01 to $1.20 is also likely to happen. Thus, you can find great odds if you think it could go to $1.00 or Under, or recover Over $1.40.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 11, 2016, 12:53:08 PM
Price of Crude Oil fell in recent days, but what will be end of the year Crude Oil price?

Oil prices fell once again this morning amid signs of an economic slowdown in Asia and evidence that US shale producers have now adapted to lower prices. Brent Crude Oil opened today at $46.49, after being at $50.10 last Monday. But, let’s look further on and try to predict where it will close at the end of the year.

According to Goldman Sachs, it will remain in a range of $45-50 per barrel over the next 12 months, as there is also mounting evidence that US shale drillers can adapt to prices of $45 or higher. But, few weeks ago former Shell Oil President told he’s “pretty bullish” on $80 per barrel oil by the end of the year.

End of the year price of Crude Oil, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-crude-oil-1/.


“Sometime in the fall, it could be in October or November, the Russians and the Saudis have got to get a grip on reality that they cannot face 2017 with the same collapse in their budgets… they are going to have to do something and the best thing for them to do, because they are so oil dependent, is to let the price of oil rise further,” he said.

So, what is your opinion on the price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil, in USD, on December 31, 2016? Can it go over $75.00, or will it go up but stay in the range of $50.00 - $74.99? Or, do you think recent trends will continue so it will close year in the current range at $25.00 - $49.99, or even under $25.00?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 12, 2016, 06:12:03 PM
Pokemon Go! It’s a new phenomenon, but who long will it last (and be at the top of the App Store)?

You can love it, or even hate it but confusion about Pokemon Go has been rising worldwide as its unprecedented growth makes more and more headlines. So, this game has been flooding the news and neighbourhoods but for many it seems as silly as it is impenetrable. And what is this fuss all about?

The answer is Pokemon Go, the new smartphone game from Nintendo and Niantic Labs. According to data tabled by Digital Vision, two days after the app’s launch, Pokemon Go was installed on 5.16% of Android devices in the US and had roared to the top of the iTunes app store’s free app charts. Nintendo’s stocks are reported to have risen to their highest value since 1983 and demand for the game was so high, with servers crashing regularly, that Amazon’s chief technology officer, Werner Vogels, even offered to share the traffic load.

How long will Pokemon Go be at the top of the App Store? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/how-long-will-pokemon-go-be-at-the-top-of-the-app-store/.


So, you surely tried to play it as well, or some of your friends did. Or, if you’ve been out and about over the past few days, chances are you’ve seen people frantically swiping their smartphones in front of places of interest, or listened with slight alarm as friends chattered excitedly about how they “caught a Sandshrew behind the supermarket”.

All in all, it is all really popular and interesting, so much that it brought a $7.5-billion US surge in Nintendo's market value. But for how long will this craziness about Pokemon Go last, or to ask more accurate question: “How long will Pokemon Go! be at the top of the App Store?” For weeks, months, or could it stay there even in 2017? At Fairlay market you have six different options, but take care that we put starting period for July 8, 2016 at 10:00 GMT time. So, what is your opinion on this market, and Pokemon Go itself?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 14, 2016, 11:11:37 AM
RealClearPolitics polling: Hillary is keeping lead just above 4.0% but can Trump lower it in the next week?

After raising to 6.0% lead on June 28, first half of July wasn’t great for Hillary as Trump managed to keep her lead under 5.0%, and it was at the recently lowest 4.3% yesterday. But what will happen next, and will Hillary move up in the polls after Sanders’ endorsement, or will Trump use momentum and move her lead even lower?

Who will lead in Trump vs. Clinton polling on July 20? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/who-will-lead-in-trump-vs-clinton-polling-on-july-20/.


So, recent polling certainly showed that Hillary was taking hit for her email scandal lies, and she even lost her lead in some important countries like Florida. With this, both Hillary Clinton and her campaign team should be freaking out, as issues with her honesty has been a sticking point for many Democrats during her primary run.

Thus, there is solid chance that she could go under 4.0% in polling lead, and you have great odds if you think she could go even under 3.0% lead. At the same time, Trump will receive a bump in the polling after the Republican National Convention next week and he also has to announce his vice presidential pick. So, will polling get even tighter?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 18, 2016, 02:17:58 PM
Theresa May shaked up government with new-look cabinet, but who will leave it first?

Interesting week is behind us in UK politics as new Prime Minister Theresa May has unveiled a nearly completely new look cabinet, in a major departure from predecessor David Cameron's top team. And it couldn’t be more interesting.

George Osborne, Michael Gove, John Whittingdale, Nicky Morgan and Oliver Letwin have all been sacked by Mrs May.
Liz Truss is justice secretary, Justine Greening takes education and Tory leadership contender Andrea Leadsom has been promoted to environment secretary. Boris Johnson became foreign secretary. Philip Hammond was made chancellor.

First Cabinet Member to Leave, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/first-cabinet-member-to-leave-1/.

So, new cabinet has plenty of interesting names, at the end of which is Eurosceptic David Davis who will, meanwhile, take charge of negotiating Britain's exit from the European Union, in a newly created post of Brexit secretary.

And, it is Davis who is amongst those who could be the first one to leave the cabinet if things don’t go as he or May want. Andrea Leadsom, who was seen as a candidate for the new Prime minister, is also with good chances to leave first. But, of course, the first favorite is a new foreign secretary Boris Jonson as many see him leave before the end of year.

But, could someone else, like Liam Fox, who was appointed as the new international trade secretary, or Amber Rudd, who took over Mrs May's former role as home secretary, leave the Cabinet first? Make your prediction at Fairlay.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 22, 2016, 09:28:42 AM
To win the 2016 Nobel Prize in Literature – Murakami or someone else?

For the last few years, Japanese writer Haruki Murakami was the biggest favorite to win the Nobel Prize in Literature but he never won in. This October we will get new Nobel literature laureate and popular Murakami is once again the biggest favorite.

But once again he could be skipped and for the time being second favorite is a Kenyan writer Ngugi Wa Thiong'o, while good chances are also given to an America writer Joyce Carol Oates. And if you don’t trust in any of them, odds on authors like Philip Roth, Adunis, Ismail Kadare, Jon Fosse, or any other you can find at Fairlay:

Nobel Prize in Literature, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/nobel-prize-in-literature/.


To win the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize – Are Greek Islanders sure bet?

Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009, whole European Union in 2012, Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet last year but now we have the question who will win it this year? At the moment most people think that it should be
Greek Islanders who have been on the frontline of the refugee crisis.

But if you don’t think that they will become Nobel laureate, then the second favorite is a global civil society coalition International Campaign To Abolish Nuclear Weapons, but also Denis Mukwege and Angela Merkel. They are followed by Pope Francis and if you have some other favorites, then you can find all the odds at Fairlay:

Nobel Peace Prize, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/nobel-peace-prize/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 23, 2016, 09:36:27 PM
Steem is now the world's third-largest cryptocurreny, so what will its price be on September 1?

In the last ten days Steem, a new digital coin, started huge discussion in the cryptocurrency community as its value quickly increased from around 25 cents a coin to around $5. With this rais, Steem established itsefl as the world's third-largest cryptocurreny, behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. But, will it stay there?

As we all know, cryptocurrencies are notoriously volatile, and there is already plenty of people who want to make a quick profit on Steem. But, at the same time, prices can easily go down if those same investors rush for the exits. And many think that this will happen and that current Steem price is already on its high end (currently: $3.60).

Price of Steem on September 1, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/price-of-steem-on-september-1/.

On the other side, Steem's creators tout it as a revolutionary social-media platform that subverts the business model of Facebook and Reddit, allowing its users to profit from the content they create. Because of this, many think that its price could only go up. Is it true, or is it, and some say 'pump and dump economy that only favors the handful at the top?'

All in all, it will be interesting to see how Steem develops in the future, and what will happen with its price. So, now you have few different price ranges that could meet Steem on September 1. Will it go up, down, or stay on the current price level? And, what is your long-term opinion about Steem, do you agree that it is a great idea or just a dump economy?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 25, 2016, 02:17:29 PM
What will happen with Ethereum Classic, and what will its price be at the year end?

A project called Ethereum Classic, initially dismissed due to a lack of vocal support, got in the center of attention yesterday as Poloniex, long the largest exchange for ethers (ETH), the digital currency native to the ethereum blockchain, added support for the native token running on the Ethereum Classic blockchain, called classic ether (ETC).

This move by Poloniex has succeeded in invoking a highly politicized debate, given its implications for wider conversations across the blockchain industry. It went so far that Chandler Guo, a well-known and respected figure in the Chinese digital currency community even stated that he, assisted by other miners, will 51% attack Ethereum Classic as soon as possible.

ETC vs ETH: Value of Ethereum Classic at year end, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/etc-vs-eth-value-of-ethereum-classic-at-year-end-1/.


So, what will happen now and will Ethereum Classic survive? As for Guo, this wouldn’t be the first time an altcoin has been 51% attacked, and with this there are chances that it could cease to exist. Thus, in order to survive, Ethereum Classic needs to provide liquidity for the network’s new cryptocurrency.

On the other side, after Poloniex, Bitfinex representatives confirmed that the Hong Kong-based exchange would list ETC as early as Wednesday. But whether other exchanges that list ETH move to add ETC trading remains to be seen. And how much will it go up you can predict now at Fairlay’s ‘ETC vs ETH: Value of Ethereum Classic at year end’ market. So, on which option will you put your money?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on July 26, 2016, 01:42:16 PM
It looks like Trump could defeat Hillary, but can Republicans also keep the Senate?

We talk for months about following US Elections, but things got even more interesting these days. Especially yesterday when, while Democrats started their National Convention, Political analyst Nate Silver’s latest forecast had Donald Trump with a 15 percentage point-greater chance of beating presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Next President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/next-president-11/.


But, even if Trump becomes the next President, will Republicans be able to keep the Senate as well? These elections will also be held on November 8, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Currently, Democrats are expected to have 10 seats up for election, and Republicans are expected to have 24 seats up for election.

However, as of June 7, only 9 Democratic held seats are in contention, as the Democrats have already secured California, with the top two finishers in the California Senate jungle primary both being Democrats. So, Senate race is really tight, though some recent polls showed that Senate Republicans have taken big leads in key battleground states.

Will Republicans keep the Senate? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/will-republicans-keep-the-senate/.


These polls at the same time showed that Donald Trump at the top of the ticket may not be as damaging for congressional candidates as some party leaders feared and complicating Democrats’ hopes of taking back control of the chamber. All in all, it looks like favors are currently going in Republicans’ favor but could that change till November?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 01, 2016, 07:45:24 PM
Will Segregated Witness be activated before 2017?

Occupied with some other important topics, we moved our minds a bit away from Segregated Witness, or 'SegWit' for short, but recently it once again started to be part of the trending topics in Bitcoin community.

And it should, as this upgrade to Bitcoin protocol might be the most significant improvement to the protocol ever. It is set to fix transaction malleability, offers an effective block size increase, enables development flexibility and so on.

Segregated Witness to be activated in 2016? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/segregated-witness-to-be-activated-in-2016/.


But, when will SegWit be activated? You have the next steps in SegWit activation process described at Bitcoin Core website (https://bitcoincore.org/en/2016/06/24/segwit-next-steps/), so we surely have few months more before we get miners (at least those representing 95% of hash power) to lock in this soft fork.

At the start of the year, most people in the community thought that it will be activated during the summer, but that didn’t happen, so now you have the end of the year as the time when SegWit activation could happen. So, what do you think?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 03, 2016, 01:15:22 PM
Bitcoin drops nearly 20% after Bitfinex, but where will it be on September 1?

The price of bitcoin fell sharply yesterday as market reacted to news that Bitfinex, one of the largest digital currency exchanges, had been hacked. But even before that, Bitcoin price was already on decline, and there is a lot of discussion if some insiders knew about Bitfinex hack before the other traders did.

When will Bitfinex resume withdrawals? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/when-will-bitfinex-resume-withdrawals/.


Anyway, last night price was roughly 20% lower than the day’s opening of $607 and 27% below the high of $658 reached on Saturday, when the digital currency began pushing lower. But, what will happen next with Bitcoin price?

As CoinDesk writes, the drop below $600 may also indicate a change from the bullish sentiment that has so far characterized 2016. For example, Joe Lee, founder of leveraged derivatives trading platform Magnr, stated that bitcoin's drop below $600 could indicate that the currency's long-term fundamentals are weak.

Bitcoin price on September 1, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/bitcoin-price-on-september-1-1/.


On the other side, Tim Enneking, chairman of cryptocurrency investment manager EAM, interpreted the recent price decline as evidence of a post-halving fallback, further stating that bitcoin will find support above $500.

Currently, Bitcoin price is at today’s high of $554, after being at today’s low of $524. So, will it go up over $600 once again, or even $650 or higher? Or will it once again go above $550, or even under $500? You surely have your own opinion on this matter, and don’t miss the chance to predict the Bitcoin price on September 1 at Fairlay.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 05, 2016, 06:02:25 PM
ETC vs ETH potential parity: Will it happen before 2017?

Bitfinex hack took a focus of community for few days, but there is still a plenty of talk about Ethereum Classic as a number of exchanges have moved to support it in recent weeks. Even Coinbase announced yesterday that it intends to let users access and withdraw classic ether balances.

At the moment, ETC (Ethereum Classic) has about 23% of ETH (Ethereum) value expressed in BTC on Poloniex, as bulk of ETC liquidity located there. Still, many think that this % will go only higher in the following months, and there is plenty of opinion that ETC will reach parity with ETH even before the end of year.

ETC to reach parity with ETH before 2017? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/etc-to-reach-parity-with-eth-before-2017/.


So, will it? After having almost no support few weeks ago, ETC chain is recently gaining more developer support, and its hashrate is growing as well. ETC also had that huge 140,000BTC volume day, that is the most volume that Ethereum has ever seen (ETH’s largest volume day was 100,000 BTC).

At the same time, ETH price started to grow a bit recently, while ETC has yet to establish solid support and resistance levels, but there is opinion that it could go up to 0.01 BTC and thus reach the parity with ETH that could go down to 0.01 BTC. Whether this will happen in 2016, you can now predict at Fairlay (https://www.fairlay.com/event/etc-to-reach-parity-with-eth-before-2017/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 07, 2016, 09:02:31 PM
What is next for Bitfinex? Withdrawals, tokens, inside job?

Bitfinex hack is still a trending topics with plenty of unknows. Their latest Blog post tried to answer some questions, but also opened some new ones. One of these new questions is about BTX tokens.

"In place of the loss in each wallet, we are crediting a token labeled BFX to record each customer’s discrete losses," says blog announcement. But, will these tokens gain any real value? You can now predict on this matter at Fairlay.

What will be Bitfinex tokens value? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/what-will-be-bitfinex-tokens-value/.

Another topic that drew attention on Reddit, regarding recent hack, is that it was actually an inside job. Most of the arguments are not going in that favor, but option that it could indeed be an inside job is still open. So, what do you think?

Was Bitfinex hack an inside job? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/was-bitfinex-hack-an-inside-job/.

Still, at the moment, the most important question is when will Bifinex be back, and when will its customers be able to withdrew their funds, or at least that part that they are now left with. Tomorrow, next week, next month?

When will Bitfinex resume withdrawals? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/when-will-bitfinex-resume-withdrawals-1/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 09, 2016, 01:19:56 PM
Men’s 100m and 200m in Rio: Can Justin Gatlin stop Usain Bolt from making history?

Yesterday, Usain Bolt has once again encouraged people to come and watch him make history in Rio. Of course, in those events that will probably be peak of Olympics that are already brining us plenty of great events and enormous heroes.

But, let’s not kid ourselves with other heroes, as we can’t wait to see Jamaican sprint star who has set his sights on a remarkable 'triple-triple' as he attempts to win three more gold medals to add to the 100m, 200m, and 4x100m relay he won at Beijing 2008 and London 2012. Is Bolt able to do this, or someone else can finally stop him this year?

Men's 100m winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/men-s-100m-winner/.


And it looks like that only Justin Gatlin, the fastest man in the world this year, can stop Bolt from creating even more history. Some are confident that Gatlin will defeat him at least once in Rio as he has the better results this year.

Also, Gatlin is completely healthy, while Bolt had some issues with a grade one tear in his left hamstring. And though people think that Bolt is more likely to lose 100m, there are more contenders to hurt him in 200m race. Anyway, history will surely be created, one way or another, so don’t miss to use the great odds Fairlay offers for these two races.

Men's 200m winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/event/men-s-200m-winner/.



The men’s 100m final will be held on Sunday 14th August 2016.
The race will start at approximately 1.25am Monday 15th August UTC (22.25pm local time in Rio).

The men’s 200m final will be held on Thursday 18th August 2016.
The race will start at approximately 1.30am Friday 19th August UTC (22.30pm local time in Rio).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: expert4knowledge on August 09, 2016, 03:00:41 PM
This is a very very different thread with others. you are producing many ideas about different topics. However I think what majority thinks is not correct necessarily and specially in market people win who think different.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 11, 2016, 01:20:45 PM
This is a very very different thread with others. you are producing many ideas about different topics. However I think what majority thinks is not correct necessarily and specially in market people win who think different.

Well, we have 'what majority thinks' vs 'what majority (who places their money) thinks' and second group surely thinks at least twice. Anyway, you are right, sometimes those few who think differently are right, but they are often those who know the most about the topic. In the end, maybe prediction markets are in fact just kind of easy money for those studying hardest. Well, who knows.

So, do you have some market you would like to create or have created?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: expert4knowledge on August 11, 2016, 02:06:41 PM
This is a very very different thread with others. you are producing many ideas about different topics. However I think what majority thinks is not correct necessarily and specially in market people win who think different.

Well, we have 'what majority thinks' vs 'what majority (who places their money) thinks' and second group surely thinks at least twice. Anyway, you are right, sometimes those few who think differently are right, but they are often those who know the most about the topic. In the end, maybe prediction markets are in fact just kind of easy money for those studying hardest. Well, who knows.

So, do you have some market you would like to create or have created?
I appreciate you tell me how do you want different subjects that are presented here to prediction markets and what do you mean by fairlay?
Can you please let me know what do you mean by markets?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 11, 2016, 06:18:09 PM
Well, here is the newest example for you, with the link to Fairlay market:


One of Bitfinex big questions: Will its token reach 1 USD?

After the August 2 hack, Bitfinex resumed its trading and withdrawals yesterday, so now most of the talk regarding this exchange market is about their previously issued Bitfinex tokens (BFX). These tokens are debt-based blockchain convertible to USD equity at Bitfinex exchange.

So, after every Bitfinex depositor took a 36% loss, he was credited with an equivalent number of BFX tokens representing the dollar value of the loss. Thus, $1 loss grants 1 BFX in return. Long term idea is that Bitfinex attempts to buy back those tokens as close to face value as possible.

Will 1 BFX reach 1 USD? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-1-bfx-reach-1-usd/.


And after BFX opened at at $0.10 it rose to as much as $0.40. Currently it is traded around $0.30 and there is already a lot of talk is it the right time to sell as no one knows what will happen with BFX. Some are still scared that Bifinex could face bankruptcy, while others think it is smarter to wait.

Those deciding to wait think that Bitfinex will buy a lot of tokens through time and then redeem those left on the market. But what about the price? Will it go up to $1 in the future, or could even Bitfinex redeem remaining tokens after recovery (or regaining back lost funds) at price of $1?

Well, predict at Fairlay. (https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-1-bfx-reach-1-usd/)


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 12, 2016, 07:03:41 PM
Everyone is crazy about Rio, but who will host 2024 Olympic Games?

Whole world is watching Rio Olympics, as every hour we get another national but also world heroes. New records, new medals, and new sports for us to learn about. But it is also the right time to predict the 2024 Olympics host city that will be announced in September next year. We are now left with four options: Paris, Los Angeles, Rome, and Budapest.

Despite the recent terrorist attacks, Paris is still determined to push ahead with its bid to host the 2024 Olympics. The Paris bid, which is believed to have an infrastructure budget of $4.5 billion and operational costs of $4.8 billion, already has over 70 percent of its venues in place. And French also proved they can put on a show and cope with heightened security for athletes and spectators with the European Football Championships that took place in June and July.

And as the Paris is the first favorite, least chances are given to Budapest, though Budapest has announced a $2.7 billion budget to build their entire infrastructure, which would be on both sides of the Danube River and utilize existing iconic locations. It is also claiming support from many south and central European countries so could Budapest still prevail?

2024 Summer Olympics - Host City, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/2024-summer-olympics-host-city/.


On the other side of the ocean, Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti touted on Tuesday his city as the safest bet for organizers of the 2024 Olympic Games to make in choosing a location, with many of the sports venues needed for hosting the event already built in the city. He also noted that Los Angeles’ ties to the entertainment industry ought to help the IOC better reach out to a younger audience, a group that’s needed to carry on the Olympics tradition.

Things like that are not great in Rome where its bid for the 2024 Olympics is in serious trouble with the city's new mayor maintaining her opposition to the candidacy. “My position isn't changing. Right now it's really not a priority for Romans,” Virginia Raggi told Euronews at the end of June in her first interview since being elected for the Major of this city.

So, it looks like Rome could be first one out, but there is still more than a year until the host city is announced, so could things change in its favor? In fact, they already turned into Paris favor after Los Angeles was the hot favorite early on but some infrastructure problems reduced its chances. Anyway, we are still enjoying Rio Olympics, next one will be held in Tokyo and then where in 2024? Back in Europe or once again America, this time North? Predict now at Fairlay (https://www.fairlay.com/market/2024-summer-olympics-host-city/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 15, 2016, 01:04:39 PM
Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton: How huge will their September debate be?

Things between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump couldn’t be more interesting, but they will surely get on top at their three presidential debates scheduled for September 26, October 9, and October 19 this year. On the other side, vice presidential debate is set for October 4.

Many are sure that the presidential debates will almost surely decide the election. History tells us that as well. A month ago it was confirmed that the first debate is moved to New York, home state of both candidates, so things got even
more interesting with this fact.

Will the first 2016 presidential debate be the most watched debate ever? Predict at:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-the-first-2016-presidential-debate-be-the-most-watched-debate-ever/.


And will this mean that it could be the most watched debate as well? The 1980 debates drew 80 million viewers out of a 226 million. Recent debates have drawn decidedly smaller audiences, ranging from 46 million for the first 2000 debate to a high of over 67 million for the first debate in 2012.

But, with Trump and Clinton in New York, the first debate this year will be the most interesting in recent years. So, it will surely go over 67 million for the one in 2012, but could be the most watched first debate in history of both television and debate? Predict right now at Fairlay (https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-the-first-2016-presidential-debate-be-the-most-watched-debate-ever/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 18, 2016, 04:36:28 PM
Aidan Turner, James Norton, Jack Huston, or someone else? Who will be the next James Bond?

In the last couple of years, since we found out that Daniel Craig will be replaced as James Bond, we got different favorites for this role every couple of months. From Tom Hardy to Idris Elba, and then Tom Hiddleston who won’t be picked by Barbara Broccoli to play James Bond, at least that was said by a spy thriller writer Frederick Forsyth.

So, who then? Well, the first favorite at the moment is still Aidan Turner, the 33-year old Irish actor who won legions of admirers for his role in BBC drama Poldark, who few days ago said: “I’d rather not say anything. It seems like it’s the Judas kiss – once you comment on it, it disappears. It’s hugely coveted. Let’s see how it goes.”

And Turner is probably right as his chances started to go down recently, and Poldark's star is now in close race with American Hustle's Jack Huston and Granchester's James Norton. But, no one is sure, thus you will get great odds if you guess right the next James Bond actor. And after that we can move our focus to the next Bond Girl.

Next James Bond, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-james-bond/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 23, 2016, 12:49:32 PM
Emmy Awards: Will Game of Thrones and Veep dominate again, or The People v. O.J. Simpson and Fargo?

Evening of September 18 will bring us the 68th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards that will once again honor the best in U.S. prime time television programming in the year before. So, who will take the most awards this year?

Last year’s biggest winners are in prime position yet again, as Game of Thrones and Veep lead their respective fields in nominations. HBO’s drama snagged the most of any program with 23 nods, while the premium cable giant’s defending comedy champ led the half-hour series with 17.

Outstanding Drama Series, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/outstanding-drama-series/.


But it was FX who took control of the limited series categories, as The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story with 22 nominations and Fargo with 18 had the second and third most nominations overall. But, will they become awards?

Outstanding Comedy Series, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/outstanding-comedy-series/.


And as Game of Thrones and Veep are huge favorites to win the awards for the best Drama Series and Comedy Series, it is The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story with more chances to win the best Limited Series, with Fargo being the second favorite in this category.

Outstanding Limited Series, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/outstanding-limited-series/.


None of this four series have a nomination for a Lead Actor, either for Drama or Comedy. First favorite for Lead Actor in a Drama is Kevin Spacey as President Frank Underwood on House of Cards, while Jeffrey Tambor as Maura Pfefferman on Transparent is the big favorite to win the Lead Actor in a Comedy.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/outstanding-lead-actor-in-a-drama-series/.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/outstanding-lead-actor-in-a-comedy-series-1/.


Robin Wright as First Lady Claire Underwood could bring House of Cards another award as the Lead Actress in Drama Series, while Julia Louis-Dreyfus as President Selina Meyer on Veep should win the Lead Actress award for Comedy.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/outstanding-lead-actress-in-a-drama-series/.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/outstanding-lead-actress-in-a-comedy-series/.


Still, all of these are only the first favorites at the moment, while predicting some other nominees you can easily change that. What was your favorite television programming in the last year, and who are your favorites to take these awards?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 30, 2016, 07:02:53 PM
Who will be 2016 TIME Person of the Year? Harambe, Sanders, Trump, Bolt, Trudeau?

How our world changes can easily be seen if we go through the winners of TIME Person of the Year, which is an annual issue of the United States news magazine TIME that features and profiles a person, group, idea or object that "for better or for worse...has done the most to influence the events of the year".

In 1930 it was Mahatma Gandhi, eight years later Adolf Hitler, then U.S. Scientists in 1960, and The Computer in 1982, all way round to The Protester five years ago and Angela Merkel last year. But now, thanks to the prediction markets like this one Fairlay offers, we can see how the world changes within one year.

TIME Person of the Year, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/time-person-of-the-year/.


So, in April we were all almost sure that Hillary Clinton will be Person of the Year, and though she will probably be the next US President, she had so many problems since April that she is now given almost no chances. In fact, it is Bernie Sanders who is the second favorite, and he is followed by Donald Trump.

And how much only one event changes things shows the fact that the first favorite to be one the cover of TIME at the end of the year is Harambe, a gorilla shot and killed by staff at the Cincinnati Zoo after it grabbed and dragged the boy who fell into the moat, after climbing into Harambe’s enclosure.

But if you think that Harambe is not likely to win this award, or either Trump or Sanders, good chances are also given to Usain Bolt and Justin Trudeau who are loved by almost anyone. Or, you can go for anyone else, as we could get new heroes in the following months. So, who is your favorite for this TIME cover?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on August 31, 2016, 11:37:28 AM
it would be nice if you added bitcoin prediction and also some major forex pairs as the layout of your looks good. if you add some major forex pairs that would be nicer of you.

Thank you, for you suggestions, here is a brand new 'Bitcoin price on October 1' market for you, and you can always find few like this in Fairlay's Bitcoin section (https://www.fairlay.com/category/news/bitcoin/all/), and we'll look into adding some forex pairs markets as well. Also, you can always create your own markets via 'New market' field (https://www.fairlay.com/user/market/new).


Bitcoin’s price is still in range between $565 and $585, but where will it go after that?

After few calm weeks, we are now heading towards a seasonal period that is more conducive to volatility in all financial markets, so could that affect big changes in Bitcoin price as well? Its price has been steady as a rock over the past couple of weeks as a consolidation range between $565 and $585 remained intact.

Currently, some analysists are saying that if the market can keep price above the $550 support zone we may be looking at the formation of a base pattern prior to an advance toward $680. They are also saying that the smart strategy in the current chart is to wait for price to advance above $600, since that will open the way to $680.

Bitcoin price on October 1, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-october-1/.


But, as always, there are plenty of other opinions of price going in difference directions. Though many think that it will not go lower as it didn’t after Bitfinex hack, while there are always those who think that it can go few hundreds up in the following weeks. And, are you among those who can use the knowledge in these predictions?

At ‘Bitcoin price on October 1’ Fairlay market you have five options and those least likely to happen are that it will go under $500, or over $650. With current price at $572, biggest chances are that it will stay in the range of $550 - $600, though it wouldn’t be big surprise to go a bit under or over that range. So, what do you predict (https://www.fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-october-1/)?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on September 02, 2016, 11:52:06 AM
Hillary email archive is still a top story, but when will Julian Assange leave the Ecuadorian embassy?

Two years ago, Julian Assange’s press conference, at which he told an expectant world that he would be leaving the Ecuadorian embassy “soon”, induced yawns from the assembled hacks. And indeed, nothing happened. Weeks, months, years passed by and the founder of WikiLeaks is still staying in the embassy of Ecuador in London.

Julian Assange again got into the center of world attention as U.S. intelligence agencies are still sorting out how emails and documents from the Democratic National Committee made their way to WikiLeaks. With all of this, he even had a long video interview with The New York Times, but it still not sure when will he leave the UK.

Will Assange escape the UK before 2020? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-assange-escape-the-uk-before-2020/.


As you probably know, Ecuador granted him asylum in August 2012, but as soon as he sets foot outside the building Britain will deport him to Sweden as the UK courts have ruled he must be sent to Sweden. And in Sweden, the most serious of the allegations he faced there, that of rape, will not expire until 2020.

And as the Ecuadorian authorities have stated that he can remain in the embassy as long as he wishes, Julian Assange still thinks that there is a real risk he will be extradited from Sweden to the US. But, it still wouldn’t be a surprise if he found ways to leave the UK before 2020, but will that really happen? Predict at Fairlay (https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-assange-escape-the-uk-before-2020/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on September 05, 2016, 01:11:47 PM
Oscars 2017: Who will be the host and which movie will win the Best Picture?

For some it is only the start of September, but for others it is just the time to talk about Oscars contenders. This year 89th Academy Awards is scheduled to take place on February 26 and most favorites are still to be released but being one of Fairlay's most popular market it is never too early to predict which movie will win the Best Picture for this year.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.


At the moment, early favorite is the ‘La La Land’, Hollywood-set musical about the romance between a jazz pianist and an aspiring actress, with Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone in lead roles. It is directed by Damien Chazelle whose ‘Whiplash’ won three Oscars two years ago. But it is common that early favorite wins nothing later. But, this movie looks beautiful.

Second favorite is drama ‘Manchester by the Sea’ which involves Casey Affleck and was big Sundance success. Another Sundance sensation, and Grand Jury Prize winner, ‘The Birth of a Nation’ is also amongst the favorites, as well as ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’, story about a group of soldiers set during a salute to the soldiers at the football game.

Three movies with short titles ‘Fences’, ‘Loving’, and ‘Lion’, but with beautiful stories, are amongst those top seven on the first edition of Fairlay’s Best Picture market. Of course, you have option ‘Other’ if your favorite for the Best Picture is not amongst these seven movies. Anyway, choose wisely as all odds are great and right prediction brings the high value.

The Oscars 2017 - Host, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-host/.


Another interesting early Oscars markets is who will be announced as a host of the following ceremony. At the moment, the first favorite is Kevin Hart, the star of many hit comedies who openly and repeatedly has begged for the job. And he is closely followed by Louis CK who last year impressed with his hilarious presentation of the best documentary short.

Still, Louis CK fan base is rather small, and because of this the comedy team of Keegan-Michael Key and Jordan Peele is the third favorite at the moment. Some other popular names like Amy Schumer, Justin Timberlake, Ricky Gervais, Chris Pratt, and Anna Kendrick are ranked high and you can get great odds if you guess right that any of them will be the host.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on September 07, 2016, 01:49:31 PM
Will the US Federal Reserve lift the rate in 2016?

As Financial Times explains, slower jobs growth and overseas hazards prompted the Federal Reserve in its recent statements to keep rates unchanged and trim back its longer-term interest rate forecasts, in a sign of greater caution.

The US central bank held the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent, where it has been since the Fed lifted rates by a quarter point from near-zero levels in December, as it assesses a mixed set of economic indicators.

US Federal Reserve to lift the rate in 2016? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/us-federal-reserve-to-lift-the-rate-in-2016/.


The median of Fed forecasts suggested that policymakers were still expecting two interest rate increases this year, but not one happened till now, and traders are split on whether the Fed will raise rates even once this year.

"An increase is on the table" at the Fed's next meeting, on Sept 20-21, San Francisco Fed President John Williams told reporters recently. So, we will have to wait and see will this increase happen, and by then you can predict the outcome at Fairlay’s market.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on September 12, 2016, 03:15:03 PM
Oscars 2017: Who will be Best Director, and who will win the awards for Best Actor and Best Actress?

Last Monday, Fairlay put you on offer markets for the Best Picture (https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/) and Announced Host (https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-host/) of the 89th Academy Awards ceremony but this Monday it is time to add three other main categories: Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress.

As for the Best Picture, ‘La La Land’ is still the first favorite but its director Damien Chazelle is the third favorite to win the award for directing. Ahead of him are Ang Lee for ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’ and Kenneth Lonergan for directing ‘Manchester by the Sea’. At the moment, they are both given the same chances to get Best Director award.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.


Though its chances for Best Picture are not huge, drama ‘Manchester by the Sea’ could win few of the main awards as its lead actor Casey Affleck is the first favorite to win the Best Actor award. Given by the trailer, he did a great job.

But, Denzel Washington wants few awards as well. At the moment he is among six directors that are the main favorites for Best Director, but Denzel Washington is also the second favorite for the Best Actor awards as it looks like that he did great job on the movie ‘Fences’, both as a director and the main actor. Still, we have plenty of other options as well.

The Oscars 2016 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.


And how big ‘Manchester by the Sea’ could become shows the fact that its Michelle Williams is the first favorite for the Best Actress. Thus, with this she is confirming this drama as one of the biggest contenders to take the main awards.

Still, let’s not hurry as there are plenty of other great movies. ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’ is one of them and Kristen Stewart is amongst the favorites to win the Best Actress awards, as well as the likes of Naomie Harris (‘Moonlight’) Aja Naomi King (‘The Birth of a Nation’) Nicole Kidman (‘Lion’), and Dakota Fanning (‘American Pastoral’).

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress/.


Oscars are not so far anymore, season of great movies is ahead of us so don’t miss the chance to use the great odds. And if you are more of a TV person, don’t miss the chance to place the predictions on the Sunday’s Emmy Awards (https://www.fairlay.com/category/news/emmy-awards/all/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on September 13, 2016, 03:36:45 PM
Man Booker Prize: Who will win it this year?

A shortlist for the Man Booker prize for Fiction, a literary prize awarded each year for the best original novel written in the English language and published in the UK, was announced today. It includes six titles, with few big names including JM Coetzee, AL Kennedy and Pulitzer winner Elizabeth Strout out after judges’ agonizing and exhilarating rereading.

If you are not similar with it, the winner of the Man Booker Prize is generally assured of international renown and success; therefore, the prize is of great significance for the book trade. Thus it is greeted with great anticipation and fanfare, and it is also a mark of distinction for authors who are selected for inclusion in the shortlist.

Man Booker Prize 2016 - Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/man-booker-prize-2016-winner/.


After shortlist was announced this morning, British author Deborah Levy, who was shortlisted for the Booker in 2012 for Swimming Home, became the first favorite for the win with her novel ‘Hot Milk’, an examination of female rage, sexuality and the bond between mother and daughter. Still, it is not a huge favorite and any other writer could prevail.

American author Paul Beatty is a second favorite for his satire about a man who tries to reintroduce slavery and segregate the local high school, ‘The Sellout’. He is followed by Canadian-born writer David Szalay’s ‘All That Man Is’, and Scottish writer Graeme Macrae Burnet’s story of murder in a 19th-century named ‘His Bloody Project’.

Last two shortlisted are Canadian Madeleine Thien’s ‘Do Not Say We Have Nothing’, and a debut novel from the American writer Ottessa Moshfegh, who at 35 is the youngest author on the shortlist for her psychological thriller ‘Eileen’. So, who is your favorite? You have until October 25 to choose wisely and predict the winner at Fairlay.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on September 14, 2016, 12:35:23 PM
Days of Hillary Clinton: Can she become the President, does she really has pneumonia, will she be indicted?

Few weeks ago, after defeating Bernie Sanders and taking big lead in the polls over Donald Trump, everything looked great for Hillary Clinton. But everything soon changed. So, can she turn around that negative change in her favor, or will all the different problems surrounding Hillary help Donald Trump to become the next President after all?

Next President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-president-11/.


This morning the news came that Trump has 5-point lead in Bloomberg poll of battleground Ohio, and at RealClearPolitics polls Hillary’s lead is now at +2.1, which lowest since August 1. This came as a result as Hillary Clinton’s health became a real issue in the presidential campaign, after she felt ill during 9/11 memorial service in New York.

Is Clinton diagnosed with Parkinson? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/is-clinton-diagnosed-with-parkinson/.


Soon after that Clinton’s campaign issued a statement from her doctor revealing that she had been diagnosed with pneumonia two days earlier. Still, plenty of people, even some doctors, speculated that it is not just pneumonia, but that Hillary has Parkinson's Disease. Of course, also came speculations that she will resign even if she becomes President.

Will Hillary Clinton resign when she is president? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-hillary-clinton-resign-when-she-is-president/.

Health problems put a bit of shadow on her emails problems. Could Hillary Clinton really be indicted over her emails, has been one of the burning questions for months and though both she and plenty expert opinion from the start said it’s not going to happen, huge amount of voters disagreed with the FBI’s decision not to indict Hillary at the time.

Hillary Clinton will be indicted in 2016, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/hillary-clinton-will-be-indicted-in-2016-1/.

All in all, with presidential election being less than two months away, Hillary is not at the great position right now. But, Donald Trump wasn’t either few weeks ago and he found ways to calm the situation and use Hillary’s bad period. So, what will follow next? Is it really just a pneumonia, is FBI done with Hillary, and can she become the next President?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on September 15, 2016, 01:54:39 PM
Who will be next U.N. Secretary-General? Antonio Guterres leads for now but who else can prevail?

United Nations headquarters in New York is abuzz with rumors about the organization’s future leadership. The race to replace Ban Ki-moon as secretary-general next year is entering its final straightaway, but it looks like there will be some serious twists before it is complete. So, who will it be in the end?

Next U.N. Secretary-General, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-u-n-secretary-general-1/.


Member states have from the start of this race been open about preferring a female candidate and with Eastern Europe being the only region not yet to produce a U.N. Secretary-General, the expectation at the start of the race was that we might see a female U.N. Secretary-General from the region.

However, Irina Bokova, the Bulgarian Director-General of UNESCO and the only candidate to meet both criterias, is now trailing in the polls while the hope of having a new female leader (from any UN member state) is starting to become a long shot. Even Helen Clark, early favorite, is trailing in the polls.

Woman to be the next U.N. Secretary-General, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/woman-to-be-the-next-u-n-secretary-general-1/.


About the election itself, it is important to know that the Security Council will hold secret ballots until a consensus is reached on a candidate to replace Ban Ki-moon. We have recently received the results of the fourth straw poll and there are 10 hopefuls left vying to replace Ban Ki-moon. You can see the results of the voting HERE (http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/UN-ELECTION/0100213T2QL/index.html).

So, at the moment, the first favorite is Antonio Guterres, former Portuguese Prime Minister, and he is followed by Slovak Foreign Minister Miroslav Lajcak. Irina Bokova and Vuk Jeremic, former Serbian Foreign Minister, are also ranked high but the following vote could change a lot. And before that happens place bet on your favorite at Fairlay.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on September 16, 2016, 03:47:48 PM
BBC SPOTY 2016 Winner: Will it be Andy Murray, Mo Farah, Laura Trott, or someone else?

The BBC Sports Personality of the Year Award is one of the main sports awards in the United Kingdom, and it is given each December. The winner is the sportsperson, judged by a public vote, to have achieved the most that year. The recipient must either be British or reside and play a significant amount of their sport in the United Kingdom.

Four people have won the award more than once: boxer Henry Cooper, Formula One drivers Nigel Mansell and Damon Hill and tennis player Andy Murray have each won twice. But can 2016 change that as Andy Murray is once again the first favorite, after winning it last year, and this year could become the only person who won the SPOTY three times.

BBC SPOTY 2016 Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/bbc-spoty-2016-winner/.


But, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Andy Murray on December 18 gets less votes (the shortlist is announced a few weeks before the award ceremony, and the winner is determined on the night by a public telephone and on-line vote) than the currently second favorite Mo Farah who is the 2016 Olympic gold medalist in both the 5000 m and 10,000 m.

It is similar with Laura Trott who won both the team pursuit and the omnium at 2016 Games. And the fourth favorite is currently Nick Skelton who, at the age of 58, won the Individual Olympic gold medal at his seventh Olympic Games. All others, like Jamie Vardy and Lewis Hamilton, are given much less chance. So, who do you predict as a SPOTY winner?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on September 19, 2016, 01:23:12 PM
Oil investors are cutting wagers on both falling and rising crude prices, but where will it be at the end of the year?

A barrel of Brent Crude Oil is up to $46, though clashes in Libya delayed the first crude shipment from the country's Ras Lanuf export terminal since 2014. On the other side, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that OPEC and non-OPEC countries are close to an agreement to stabilize markets ahead of an informal meeting in Algiers next week.

The uncertainty ahead of that meeting has seen oil investors head for the sidelines, cutting wagers on both falling and rising crude prices. The meeting comes after the International Energy Agency said that the global oversupply will last longer than previously thought as demand growth slows and output proves resilient. What will this meeting bring?

End of the year price of Crude Oil, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/end-of-the-year-price-of-crude-oil-1/.


So, there’s more uncertainty than usual in the market because of the upcoming meeting. People are waiting for the outcome and a number think this is a good time to stand on the sidelines. But, on the other side, it could be the good time to predict what will this meeting bring and use the first good odds on the range of the end of the year Oil price.

In the meantime, OPEC production rose last month as Middle East producers opened the taps, the IEA said. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates pumped at or near record levels and Iraq pushed output higher, according to the agency. Does this mean rise in Crude Oil price over $50 by the end of the year? Well, use bitcoins to predict it at Fairlay.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on September 21, 2016, 12:03:30 PM
Bitcoin is again under $600, but where will it be on November 1?

Bitcoin had rather fall today around midnight (UTC) as its price dropped from $607 to $592. Still, it is not as near as scary as that drop from $655 from July 30 to $552 three days later.

So, in those few days prices fell close to 20% to start the month, a steep decline that coincided with the hack of Hong Kong-based bitcoin exchange Bitfinex, one of the most heavily traded on the network globally.

But as the news of the improvement as Bitfinex came, price started to go up and Bitcoin was still at around $600 since the start of September. Now many ask what will happen next and where will price go from here?

Bitcoin price on November 1, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-november-1/.


Few days ago, Chris Burniske, blockchain products lead for investment manager ARK Invest, emphasized for CoinDesk that the bitcoin's blockchain retained its security and functionality in spite of the Bitfinex hack.

Thus it was once again confirmed that in spite of recent Bitfinex hack and many other difficulties in Bitcoin community, market participants should keep in mind that bitcoin has survived many challenges before. And will in future.

But where will Bitcoin price go from here? As always there are those who are sure it will go over $1000 in a couple of months, those who think it will keep $600, and those pessimistic ones. What is your opinion? Predict it at Fairlay.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on September 26, 2016, 02:26:30 PM
Will tonight’s debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump be the most watched debate ever?

It's debate night in America as the first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump takes place tonight in New York, beginning at 9 p.m. Easter Time. The sheer stakes and spectacle of it all mean a lot of people are predicting record viewership. And record in this case means that at least 80.7 million viewers should watch tonight’s debate.

The viewership record could be set as the 90-minute debate could draw up to 100 million viewers. Thus, stakes are high for news organizations, which have an opportunity to set the record straight and to budge the presidential discussion ono the level ground of established facts. But, will this debate indeed go in history as the most watched debate ever?

Will the first 2016 presidential debate be the most watched debate ever? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-the-first-2016-presidential-debate-be-the-most-watched-debate-ever/.


Surely, millions of Americans will be glued to their TVs tonight, 54 years after Senator John F. Kennedy and Vice President Richard Nixon squared off in the first televised presidential debate. Though, you should have in mind that online streaming sources are not included in Nielsen report that is source for resolving this viewership record.

In recent years, the public has tuned into the presidential debates in record numbers. According to Nielsen, six of the top 10 most-watched debates in history occurred within the last three election cycles. Five occurred in just the last two. But, in 1980 Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan set a still-standing presidential debate record with 80.6 million viewers.

And many think that, based on how much TV viewing has changed, that record’s unlikely to ever fall — even with the unusual anticipation building for this Trump vs. Clinton debate. But again, with entertainment value of Donald Trump others are sure that TV history will be made tonight. So, on which side are you? And, of course, predict it at Fairlay. (https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-the-first-2016-presidential-debate-be-the-most-watched-debate-ever/)


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on September 29, 2016, 05:39:02 PM
WWE Royal Rumble 2017 Match: Who will win it this time? Seth Rollins, Brock Lesnar, John Cena, someone else?

One of the most exciting events annually, held every January, in WWE is without question the WWE Royal Rumble. Not only is it arguably the most unique and storied match type in the company and maybe even in all of pro wrestling, but there is also the chance to see 30 superstars duke it out and to see the many other surprises and also some returns.

Those returns are now even more possible by holding the WWE Royal Rumble in Los Angeles for 2017, as that opens the door for both big celebrities to make appearances and also for the former superstars that have now taken residence in the big city to return as well. But could some of them even make a surprise win in the 30-man Royal Rumble match?

WWE Royal Rumble 2017 Match, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/wwe-royal-rumble-2017-match/.


After Triple H won it in Florida last year, first favorite to win it this year in California is Seth Rollins who is still without the win at Royal Rumble. But his chances are not huge, and the close second favorite is Brock Lesnar who lost last year after being the first favorite, though he was the youngest Royal Rumble winner when winning it in Boston in 2003.

John Cena is one of those legend that is always amongst the favorites, though after 2008 he won again in 2013, so is it too soon for him to win it again this year? But it could be the first time win for Irish Finn Balor, who is currently in front of the names like Roman Reigns, Kevin Owens, or AJ Styles. So, who is your favorite to become the hero on January 22?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on October 06, 2016, 12:28:20 PM
Nobel Peace Prize is announced tomorrow. Who will win it? White Helmets, Greek Islanders, Angela Merkel?

A record number of people and organizations have been nominated for the 2016 Nobel peace prize, which will be announced on Friday, 11 a.m. CET time. This year 376 candidates – 228 individuals and 148 organizations – are in contention for the award. A day before the winner is announced, many give the biggest chances to two different group of people that influenced conflict in Syria the most in the previous year: White Helmets and Greek Islanders.

During the past five years of war in Syria, the White Helmets, a group of volunteer rescue workers, have run towards bombs in opposition-held areas to rescue tens of thousands – by some estimates, as Guardian writes, up to 60,000 people – from the ruins and battlefields. There has been no more dangerous place in the world to be a first responder for most of that time. At the same time, group made up of pre-war Syria’s middle classes, have lost 160 of their own.

2016 Nobel Peace Prize Winner. Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/2016-nobel-peace-prize-winner/.


On the other side, if the islanders of Greece win this year’s Nobel peace prize it will not be because any of them wanted to. On the frontline of the biggest movement of humanity in modern times, the residents of Lesbos – to name but one of the isles – were nominated for opening their homes to Syrian refugees despite the economic hardship they have been forced to endure with Greece’s economic near-collapse. Because of this, many see them at the Nobel Prize winner.

Behind these two groups are two persons, though with much less chances: Congolese doctor Denis Mukwege - also nominated last year - for his work with thousands of rape victims, and Nadia Murad, a Yazidi who was abducted by IS fighters and held for months as a sex slave. Though, with a Russian human rights activist Svetlana Gannushkina, Angela Merkel, Pope Francis also seen by some as winners, option ‘Other’ at Fairlay (https://www.fairlay.com/market/2016-nobel-peace-prize-winner/) is a smart choice. So, who is your favorite?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on October 10, 2016, 02:04:24 PM
Daniel Craig hints at James Bond return. Will he indeed do another Bond film?

Daniel Craig has lent weight to theories he will return to the role of James Bond, as Guardian writes, following a year of intense speculation. Speaking at the New Yorker festival over the weekend, he told the audience: “I’ve got the best job in the world doing Bond. The things I get to do on a Bond movie and the type of work it is, there’s no other job like it.”

His enthusiasm is in contrast to the sentiments expressed shortly after shooting ended on the most recent instalment. Asked then whether he would like to return to the part, Craig declared that he would “rather slash my wrists”.

Daniel Craig to do another Bond Film? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/daniel-craig-to-do-another-bond-film/.


His words chime with those of Bond executive producer Callum McDougall, who told the BBC recently that franchise chiefs Barbara Broccoli and Michael G Wilson were hoping for the return of the actor, who was “absolutely the first choice”. But Craig denied that he was offered $150m for two movie instalments – a report already widely debunked.

So, will Daniel Craig return as James Bond one more time? It looks like that chances are 50/50 at the moment (https://www.fairlay.com/market/daniel-craig-to-do-another-bond-film/), so you can use the great odds at Fairlay market, and if your option is No, you can follow with the bet on his successor (https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-james-bond/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on October 11, 2016, 01:01:38 PM
Nobel Literature Prize winner is announced on Thursday. Who will it be? Murakami, Adunis, Wa Thiong'o?

Literary circles are abuzz with speculation ahead of Thursday’s Nobel Literature Prize announcement (1 p.m. CET time), with award watchers suggesting this year’s honors could go to a controversial writer such as Syrian-born poet Ali Ahmad Said Esber, known by the pen name Adonis or Adunis whose most recent publication is a polemic tract on political Islam.

Thursday announcement will be ending of an unusually long wait: it comes a week later than usual “for calendar reasons”, the Academy said in late September. Still, some Nobel watchers have interpreted the late date as a sign of discord over this year’s choice, AFP writes. Could this discord be over Adunis, or possibly some other writer?

2016 Nobel Literature Prize Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/2016-nobel-literature-prize-winner/.


Once again, we have Japanese contemporary surrealist Haruki Murakami as the first favorite. Though he is there every year, his fans more than ever think this could be his turn. It is same with the fans of Kenyan writer Ngugi Wa Thiong'o. Portuguese novelist Antonio Lobo Antunes, and Spanish novelist Juan Marse are also amongst the leading favorites.

Literary critic Madelaine Levy at daily Svenska Dagbladet said only one thing was certain: we know that we know nothing about the Academy’s choice. “Year after year, the writers chosen are incredibly different,” she noted. So, what do you predict for this year? (https://www.fairlay.com/market/2016-nobel-literature-prize-winner/) Some less known name, first favorite Murakami, or could Adunis be the reason for this delay?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on October 17, 2016, 04:39:20 PM
Three weeks till the US Presidential Election: Who will win Florida, Utah, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?

We are 21 days away from the US Presidential election scheduled for November 8. And as Hillary has a +5.5 lead over Trump in national poll average, there are a lot of discussions about which candidate will win which state. Some states are important as they bring plenty of electoral votes, others show how politics change. What will they show this time?

Who will win Florida? Fairlay gives Hillary 76% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


Florida went for Obama in 2012, but just barely, with the tightest margin of any state. After the second debate, Hillary has inched ahead in the latest polls for this all-important swing state and many think that she has an advantage over Trump because there is a large Hispanic and Latino population in Florida. But, can Trump still make a surprise win there?

Who will win Utah? Fairlay gives Trump 78% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-utah-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Mitt Romney won the state of Utah by 48 points but 56% of Mormons say Republican leaders should no longer support Donald Trump. But it still looks like Trump will prevail there. Even though it only has six of the 538 electoral college votes Utah could offer an interesting insight into changing political geography. So, could Mormons stop Trump from winning?

Who will win Ohio? Fairlay gives Hillary 68% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


Some think that Ohio may decide who the next president is, so it is really important state. Reason for this is Ohio's incredibly diverse demographic, economic, and geographic makeup that makes it matter so much in elections. At the moment, Clinton is ahead plenty of polls but it seems like many think that Donald Trump could still win Ohio. Will he?

Who will win Pennsylvania? Fairlay gives Hillary 89% chances.
Predict at: https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


Pennsylvania is one of the battleground states and many polls show that Hillary should easily win it. Still, in the last days there are plenty of headlines like 'Can Trump really win Pennsylvania? Stranger things have happened in 2016.' But, since 1988 Republicans have seen prize of 20 electoral votes swept away from them. Can Trump change that this time?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on October 20, 2016, 04:02:52 PM
Trump says he'll keep country 'in suspense' on accepting election result. Will he accept it in the end?

The third and final presidential debate brought a lot of things, but most of today's focus is on Trump's refusal to say he'll accept losing. As Politico writes, Donald Trump delivered another unprecedented historical moment during the final presidential debate Wednesday night when the Republican nominee, who appears on his way to a landslide loss, refused to say that he would accept the election’s outcome.

“I will look at it at the time,” said Trump — just hours after his daughter, campaign manager and running mate all insisted that he would respect the voters’ will, win or lose. “That’s horrifying,” Clinton shot back, offering several examples of Trump blaming his personal setbacks and disappointments on others’ cheating or rigging of the events, including 'The Apprentice' getting passed over for an Emmy.

Will Trump accept the election result? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-trump-accept-the-election-result/.

The Republican nominee’s stunning refusal to say he’ll accept the outcome on November 8 was a jolting replay of the first GOP primary debate in which he dismayed his fellow Republicans by refusing to back the eventual nominee. We didn't see would he back the eventual nominee as he became the one, but do you think that he will go so far to deny the validity of the electoral results on November 8?

Treating American democracy as gingerly as a reality TV subplot, Trump promised last night moderator Chris Wallace and the country he would "keep you in suspense, OK?" And, while many think that with this move Trump made a huge mistake that will surely cost him in the end, you can now predict at Fairay market whether or not he will accept the electoral results (https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-trump-accept-the-election-result/). So, what is your opinion on all of this?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on October 25, 2016, 02:41:55 PM
Nintendo Switch vs PS4 Pro vs Xbox One S: Which one will be the highest selling console of 2017?

At long last, Nintendo has taken the wraps off its new NX games console. We now know the Nintendo NX will be called the Switch and after having a first look at it, we surely all want to have it. Still, we don’t know anything beyond the basics shown to us in the reveal trailer and that the Switch launches in March of 2017.

Though, a leak on Reddit before the Switch announcement suggested the console will retail at around $299 for the base model but bundles will be available at $399 and be, we expect, similar to the Wii U Deluxe. And could this mean that Nintendo Switch will become the highest selling console of 2017 as most people want to have it?

The highest selling console of 2017. Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-highest-selling-console-of-2017/.


At the same time, Xbox released a video with the bold title of "Xbox One: The Best-Selling Console in America." It's a somewhat misleading claim as it's a fact, that to date, the PlayStation 4 has sold more units than the Xbox One. Over the past few months the Xbox One indeed has outsold the PlayStation 4 in America and that is only true.

Still, it's entirely possible that the announcement of the PlayStation 4 Pro has deflated PlayStation sales, as gamers wait to purchase the newer, more powerful console when it launches next month. But, will PlayStation 4 Pro be better selling console than Xbox One S, and can either of them win over Nintendo Switch? Predict at Fairlay (https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-highest-selling-console-of-2017/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on October 31, 2016, 05:52:15 PM
Hillary vs Trump entered its final week: Does Hillary has is it, or is it becoming a tightening race?

As AFP writes, Donald Trump stormed into Democratic territory as the campaign entered its final week Monday, determined to disprove polls and capture the White House as rival Hillary Clinton battles to contain the fallout from renewed FBI focus on her emails. But can he use this to become the next President on November 8?

Allegations that Clinton put the United States at risk by using a private email server while secretary of state were thrust back into the spotlight Friday, though FBI director James Comey told email disclosure may have broken law, dramatically shifting the momentum in a race where Clinton was increasingly seen as the prohibitive favorite to win.

Who will become the next President?
Predict at Fairlay: https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-president-11/.


University of Virginia politics professor Larry Sabato told AFP the email scandal "has changed the dynamic of the race." And it surely did. "She would have been running a victory lap this week, running up the score. Instead she's trying to hold on." And with this, her lead in RCP polling is down to +3.0 today, after +7.1 on October 18.

While Clinton does maintain leads in some key battleground states and a modest advantage nationwide, recent polls already showed a tightening race. An ABC News/Washington Post survey carried out before the FBI announcement put the Democratic presidential candidate just one point ahead of her Republican challenger.

But while Clinton's lead has shrunk, Sabato distilled the Trump strategy to a simple truth: he needs to flip at least one Democratic-leaning state on November 8 in order to win. Is Trump able to do this? At the moment, Fairlay market gives him 24% chances (with a rather big increase recently), so you can still use the great odds on his win (https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-president-11/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 02, 2016, 03:43:36 PM
Battleground states, swing states, purple states: Who will win them, Hillary or Trump?

We are only few days away from the night of November 8 when the results start to come in from each of fifty states. Map will be filled in blue for Hillary and in red for Trump, but the fact is that we already know most of these results. Still, those purple states, also known as swing states or battleground states, need to find it real color.

So, purple states which are relatively evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. And, depending on analysts, there are eight to fifteen competitive states this time around. In recent cycles, the presidency has been won in Florida and Ohio. America's 3rd and 7th largest states with 29 and 18 electoral votes respectively, they are constantly swinging back and forth between parties.

Who will win Florida? Fairlay market gives Hillary 56% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-florida-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


The two states also have near-perfect records of picking the president over the past five decades. The result in Ohio has mirrored the national outcome in every election since 1960, while Florida has diverged from the nation at large just once over that period. Thus, both Hillary and Trump these days spend a lot of their time in these two states.

Who will win Ohio? Fairlay market gives Trump 60% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-ohio-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


Though Trump remains a narrow lead in Ohio, Florida is still really tight. With its burgeoning Hispanic population, we might think Florida would be slipping from Trump’s grasp because of his incendiary rhetoric on immigration. Yet his message on trade and change is resonating well even among some Hispanics in central Florida and the outcome, as so often is the case, is entirely in the balance.

Who will win North Carolina? Fairlay market gives Trump 51% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-north-carolina-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


North Carolina is also one of the swing states. When Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, he was the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter. Mitt Romney won the Southern state back in 2012, and it now appears to be a toss-up between Clinton and Trump. And it could go either way, with the race being incredibly tight.

Who will win Pennsylvania? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-pennsylvania-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


Pennsylvania is a state that has Democrat all over it. Philadelphia is the city of Brotherly Love with a significant black population. Scranton is the hometown of Vice President Joe Biden. Still, though polls are going towards Hillary, Trump still thinks that he can win Pennsylvania. His focus: the Philadelphia suburbs. Hillary is given 79% at Fairlay market so Trump’s win there would be a rather surprise.

Other battleground states:

Who will win Virginia? Fairlay market gives Hillary 87% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-virginia-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Michigan? Fairlay market gives Hillary 79% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-michigan-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Wisconsin? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-wisconsin-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Iowa? Fairlay market gives Trump 72% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Colorado? Fairlay market gives Hillary 77% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-iowa-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.

Who will win Nevada? Fairlay market gives Hillary 82% chances:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/which-party-will-win-nevada-in-the-2016-presidential-election/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 03, 2016, 10:39:50 AM
Next French President: Hollande’s popularity falls to 4%, will Alain Juppe use this?

French presidential election is scheduled to be held on April 23, 2017 for the first round and May 7, 2017 for the runoff, but it already looks that current president is without the chances as his approval ratings have plummeted to 4%.

Reason for this is a 662-page book published last month by two journalists, based on recorded interviews with the Socialist president. In it, Hollande insults all and sundry: judges, footballers, his own ministers and more.

Yet even if Hollande were to stand aside, as The Economist writes, polls suggest that the Socialists would perform disastrously in the presidential election’s first round, failing to make it to the second-round run-off.

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-french-president/.


The party’s best alternative, Manuel Valls, would still not beat either the centre-right candidate or the nationalist Marine Le Pen. And the Republicans will hold presidential primaries to select a candidate on November 20.

So, if Alain Juppe defeats Nicolas Sarkozy to become the Republicans candidate, he will become even bigger favorite to become the next French president. In all the recent polls, mayor of Bordeaux is the one with the best numbers.

Though, support for anti-migration candidate Marine Le Pen is believed to be surging as well. Thus, the following months will surely be interesting in France, so don’t miss the chance to use the great odds on most candidates at Fairlay market (https://www.fairlay.com/market/next-french-president/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 03, 2016, 04:19:24 PM
The Oscars 2017: Which movies are gaining, and which movies are losing their chances for the 89th Academy Awards?

The 89th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on February 26, 2017 but there are already some bigger changes at our Oscars markets. Some movies are coming out with negative reviews, others with positive, while most of them are still in waiting to hit the cinemas. Still, that doesn’t stop people to see some of them as the best movies of the year.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.


One of those movies is ‘La La Land’, romantic musical comedy-drama starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone, which is set to be released on December 9 but it is already by far the biggest favorite for the Best Picture. Some movies (like Australian-American-British drama ‘Lion’) are losing their chances, while others (like ‘Silence’, historical drama directed by Martin Scorsese, or drama ‘Moonlight’ written and directed by Barry Jenkins) are gaining them.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.


Damien Chazelle, director of ‘La La Land’ also became one of the favorites for the Best Director Award, though he is still given the same chances as Ang Lee, director of ‘Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk’, and Kenneth Lonergan, director of ‘Manchester by the Sea’. But, can some other directors, like Denzel Washington for ‘Fences’, prevail in the end?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.


As we talk about Denzel Washington, he is still the second favorite for the Best Actor Award, for the leading role in his already mentioned own movie ‘Fences’. Though, things didn’t change a lot recently as Casey Affleck, for his superb role in ‘Manchester by the Sea’ is still the first favorite, while Ryan Gosling’s chances for the Oscar (of course, for his role in ‘La La Land’) are becoming bigger, so it wouldn’t be such a big surprise if he wins it this year.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-1/.


On the other side, favorites for the Best Actress changed so much in the recent weeks that Fairlay had to offer completely new market. The main reason for this are Emma Stone for her role in ‘La La Land’, and Natalie Portman who looks great as Jackie Kennedy in ‘Jackie’. But, who are your favorites, and which movies do you see as the winners?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 14, 2016, 03:13:38 PM
The World Chess Championship has come to New York City. Who will win it? Magnus Carlsen or Sergey Karjakin?

The World Chess Championship has come to New York City, as the Norwegian defending champion Magnus Carlsen and his Russian challenger Sergey Karjakin vie for the game’s highest title. They’re both kids: Carlsen is 25 and Karjakin is 26, yet they’ve lived half their lives as grandmasters. The match is being billed as the youngest championship ever, as FiveThirtyEight’s Oliver Roeder writes.

The first weekend of their best-of-12 match is in the books, and after two games — and two draws — the score is level at 1-1. In Game 1, Carlsen, playing with the white pieces, chose an unusual opening called the Trompowsky Attack. The joke around the Fulton Market Building on Friday was that he played it as a homophonic nod to the new president-elect. There was truth to the joke. Asked after the game whether his choice had anything to do with Donald Trump, Carlsen replied: “A little bit.”

Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Game 3 Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-game-3-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-game-3/.


“I’m a big fan of Donald Trump,” Carlsen told Norway’s TV2 in March. “Trump is incredibly good at finding opponents’ weaknesses. He speaks only about that the other candidates are stupid or smelly. There should be more of this in chess, too.” Carlsen then offered a Trumpism of his own: “Karjakin is incredibly boring!” Karjakin, for his political part, is an avowed supporter of Vladimir Putin.

https://cdn.worldchess.com/media/article/full_inner/2016-11-13_00-00-32__32063090-a934-11e6-a17c-0e0329efa989.jpg

By the end of that first game no further blood was drawn, and the players agreed to a draw after the 42nd move and just under four hours of play. Game 2, with Karjakin handling the white pieces, began with the all-too-familiar Ruy Lopez opening, a staple of chess for 500 years. The rest of the game was an equally uncreative and plodding affair. After just under three hours, and not much else to speak of, they arrived at a second draw.

Magnus Carlsen (NOR) vs Sergey Karjakin (RUS) – Series Winner, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/magnus-carlsen-nor-series-vs-sergey-karjakin-rus-series-3/.


With the match continuing today, Carlsen remains the heavy favorite, although his chances according to Oliver Roeder’s Elo-based simulations have dipped from 88 percent at the start to 84 percent now, as Karjakin has held serve. At the same time, Fairlay market gives another draw in Game 3 66% chances, while Magnus Carlsen is still the favorite for the final win with 82% chances.

The 12-game match is taking place until November 30, with the two contestants competing for a prize fund of at least 1 million euros. If the score is tied after 12 games, a four-game rapid chess match will be played, then five two-game matches of blitz chess if necessary, and finally, an Armageddon game will be used to break the tie. At the same time, the World Chess Championship in New York will be the first in any sport to be broadcast in 360-degree virtual reality (VR).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on November 23, 2016, 01:29:49 PM
Where is Julian Assange? And will he be proven alive before 2017, or least in the following 10 months?

“We're happy to announce (a bit prematurely due to sleep schedules) that /r/WhereIsAssange is the subreddit of the day for 11/23/16.“ Yes, that's how big WhereIsAssange got in the last few days as its primary focus is the whereabouts/status of Julian Assange after his internet disconnection and disappearance from the public eye last month. So, where is Julian Assange? And will he soon be proven alive?

Will Julian Assange be proven alive before 2017? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-julian-assange-be-proven-alive-before-2017/.


In case you missed it, here is /r/WhereIsAssange Summary of the events:

The WikiLeaks twitter made several cryptic "pre-commitment" tweets several hours before announcing Julian Assange's internet was cut. Since then, we have received no definitive proof of life, just recycled pictures and videos, statements from people saying things like, "I've seen him, he's fine," then a call-in to an obscure South America open source conference where Julian didn't seem to always be responding to the person asking questions, and most recently a video interview with John Pilger that had no establishing shot of both of them in frame and is edited at numerous points.

Will Julian Assange be proven alive before September 2017? Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-julian-assange-be-proven-alive-before-september-2017/.


Thus, /r/WhereIsAssange is asking for an unedited video proof of life, preferably with a newspaper showing the current date, and a signed PGP statement using the Wikileaks Editorial Board public key that has been published since 4/2015 (matching the PGP fingerprint listed on the WikiLeaks twitter bio). As for Fairlay, any proof accepted by the media and Reddit users is enough. But, will that proof come in the following weeks (before 2017 (https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-julian-assange-be-proven-alive-before-2017/)), or in the following months (before September 2017 (https://www.fairlay.com/market/will-julian-assange-be-proven-alive-before-september-2017/)). Well, make your opinion at Fairlay.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 01, 2016, 01:33:04 PM
Italian constitutional referendum will be held on Sunday: Will it be a Yes or a No vote?

Italy will hold a referendum on Sunday on whether or not to change the country’s constitution. As Independent writes, the country’s centre-left Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, has promised to resign if the electorate rejects his proposals. But the vote hangs in the balance.

Also, as Guardian writes this referendum is causing concern across Europe after the UK’s vote to leave the EU and Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory. Italy’s vote is as well seen as the biggest threat to Europe since the UK’s referendum on EU membership in June.

Italian Constitutional Referendum result, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/italian-constitutional-referendum-result/.


So, how is the referendum likely to go? Before the official blackout on polls on November 18, there was a projected 53.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent lead for the “No” camp. There is some hope that the 20 per cent people who haven’t made up their mind will ultimately swing behind “Yes”.

At the moment, Fairlay market (https://www.fairlay.com/market/italian-constitutional-referendum-result/) is also in favor of “No” vote, as “Yes” is given only 21 per cent chances. And the “No” vote is being championed by the populist Five Star movement, led by the comedian Beppe Grillo, an admirer of Mr Trump. In short, the outlook for Mr Renzi is not particularly good. But, what do you think?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 13, 2016, 04:13:34 PM
Who will be the next French President? Francois Fillon, Marine Le Pen, or someone third?

Two weeks ago, Francois Fillon has won France's Republican presidential primary, after his opponent Alain Juppe conceded defeat, and by doing this he became the first favorite to become the next French President.

Thus, Fillon is now likely to face a spring showdown with far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen, who will be seeking to build on that same anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim and anti-establishment feeling.

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-1/.


Some recent polls showed that Fillon will beat Le Pen by 67% to 33%, but many agree that Le Pep could become the next French President as the National Front leader is feeling confident after Brexit and Trump win.

While Fairlay market  (https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-1/)at the moment gives Fillon 59% and Le Pen 23% chances, the first round of the French presidential election will be held on April 23, and the second on May 7. So, who will be the big winner in the end?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 15, 2016, 04:28:38 PM
2017 Golden Globes: Who will win the main categories? La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea?

On Monday morning, Don Cheadle, Laura Dern, and Anna Kendrick announced the nominees for the 74th Golden Globe Awards. The resulting list contained plenty of good news for La La Land, which led the pack with seven nominations; Moonlight, in second with six nods; and Manchester by the Sea, which scored five.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Film: Musical or Comedy
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-film-musical-or-comedy/.


So, Damien Chazelle's movie La La Land is up for best musical or comedy film, while there are acting nominations for its stars Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling. Chazelle is up for best film director and it is also nominated for original screenplay, score and song. Thus, La La Land could be the biggest winner on January 8, 2017.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Film: Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-film-drama/.


But coming-of-age drama Moonlight is close behind with six nominations, including best drama film. Though, at the moment the first favorite to win the Golden Globe for Best Picture – Drama is Manchester by the Sea, movie about a caretaker who finds himself taking in his teenage nephew.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Director
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-director/.

Manchester by the Sea also got the Best Director nomination for Kenneth Lonergan, though it is more likely to prevail in Best Actor – Drama category as Casey Affleck did a great job. But Denzel Washington also did a great acting role in Fences, while he didn’t get nomination for directing this movie.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actor: Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actor-drama/.


Natalie Portman is favorite for the best drama actress award for playing Jacqueline Kennedy in the biopic Jackie. Still, there was a lot of positive talk about great role of Amy Adams in Arrival, though she is at the moment third favorite with the second being Isabelle Huppert for her role of a successful businesswoman in Elle.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actress: Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actress-drama/.


Ryan Gosling is already seen as the winner of Golden Globe for Best Actor - Musical or Comedy, and the lead actor of La La Land doesn’t face great competition in this category. It was nice seeing Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins, and Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool but either of them will hardly prevail.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actor: Musical or Comedy
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actor-musical-or-comedy/.


Category that will take more attention than it usually does is Best Actress in TV Drama. Evan Rachel Wood was in the last few months superb in Westworld, before her Winona Ryder was impressive in Stranger Things, but big chances are also given to Claire Foy for her role of Queen Elizabeth II in The Crown.

2017 Golden Globes - Best Actress: TV Drama
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-golden-globes-best-actress-tv-drama/.

So, who are your favorites in all of these categories? And hurry up to place the bets on them at Fairlay markets.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on December 21, 2016, 03:54:33 PM
Bitcoin is going up, but where will it stop? At $850, $900, $1200?

Bitcoin finally passed the $800 value, for the first time since February 2014. And soon after breaking this "psychological barrier" it started going crazy and is currently trading at $827 (just a few minutes ago it was at $822). So, where will it stop?

Bitcoin to top 850 USD before January 1? Fairlay market gives this 57% chances.
Predict at https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-850-usd-before-january-1/.


Among other things, Chinese trading is a significant factor behind bitcoin's above the $800 mark. Trading volumes in China have been "extraordinary", with 10 million bitcoins traded on days in October and November. This has now subsided to a steady trading of around 3.5 million bitcoins a day.

Bitcoin to top 900 USD before January 1? Fairlay market gives this 24% chances.
Predict at https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-900-usd-before-january-1/.


"Ah I see what's happening. #Bitcoin short positions are getting crushed. Yep, we just may see $1K before the end of the year," is the kind of the comments going around on the current changes in price. But will Bitcoin go super high?

Bitcoin to top $1200 before March 2017? Fairlay market gives this 26% chances.
Predict at https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1200-before-mar-2017/.


So, as it surpasses $800 for the first time in three years, this is surely a big day for Bitcoin. And as The Chinese yuan at the same time traded near its weakest level in eight years, could the following days, weeks, or even months make Bitcoin even stronger? Well, use plenty of Fairlay markets to make even more Bitcoins.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 09, 2017, 12:17:30 PM
La La Land won seven Golden Globe Awards last night but can it repeat that at the Oscars?

Till the last night only two films have won six Golden Globe Awards (One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest and Midnight Express), but last night that superlative changed as La La Land won the seven Golden Globe Awards. At the same time this film directed by Damien Chazelle also won all the seven Golden Globes that it was nominated for.

But can La La Land repeat this at The Oscars?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.


The 89th Academy Awards will take place on February 26, with nominations announced on January 24. Last night showed that it is not a surprise that Fairlay market gives La La Land 80% chances to win the Best Picture award. And it looks like that only Manchester by the Sea or Moonlight can stop La La Land from prevailing.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture/.


Things are almost the same in the Best Director category as Damien Chazelle, director of La La Land, is now given 81% chances at Fairlay. And Kenneth Lonergan, director of Manchester by the Sea, is the second favorite, while some think that Barry Jenkins could after all be awarded for creating Moonlight.

https://buzzhub.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/la-la-land-poster.jpg?w=1200

The Oscars 2016 - Best Actor, Predict at Fairlay:
https://www.fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor/.

And if you think that La La Land will sweep The Oscars but you want bigger odds, then Best Actor and Best Actress are markets for you. Ryan Gosling, lead actor of La La Land, is given only 8% chances for winning the Best Actor Awards, as Casey Affleck for a lead role in Manchester by the Sea is the biggest favorite with 75% given.


The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-1/.


While both Gosling and Affleck got Golden Globes for actors last night, Emma Stone for La La Land and Isabelle Huppert for Elle got Golden Globes for actresses. But which of them will win the Best Actress Award at Oscars, or could that be won by Natalie Portman for Jackie? Anyway, for either of them odds are huge at the moment.

So, Golden Globes are given but who are you favorites for The Oscars?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 22, 2017, 01:44:53 PM
Trump has already signed an executive order against Obamacare but will he end Obamacare in 2017?

In one of his first official actions, new President Donald Trump signed an executive order late Friday that directed federal agencies to use their authority to relieve individual Americans, businesses, state governments and others from “burdens” placed on them by the Affordable Care Act, adopted by the term "Obamacare".

As Los Angeles Times writes, the Trump administration and its Republican allies in Congress billed the order as a first step in their push to repeal Obamacare. So, does this mean the new President has scrapped the 2010 healthcare law “on Day One,” as he once promised he would do? Or is this just more talk from the new President?

Will Trump end Obamacare in 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-trump-end-obamacare-in-2017/.


But even if Trump wants to do this, Obamacare cannot be repealed so easily. It can only be repealed by another law, which would require an act of Congress, not just an executive order from the President. That is why congressional Republicans are debating how to craft a new law that could supplant all or part of the one Obama signed in 2010.

So, Republican lawmakers have been struggling with how to fulfill their pledge to repeal the healthcare law, replace it with something else and preserve coverage for the more than 20 million people who rely on it. To do this, they will have to design a path to transition from the current Obamacare system to whatever they come up with.

But, can Trump and his administration do this while preventing the current system from collapsing? Also, can they do this before 2018? Also, note that in order for this Fairlay market (https://fairlay.com/market/will-trump-end-obamacare-in-2017/) to pass, it is enough for Obamacare to be renamed, not just ended. What is your opinion on this, or is it still too soon to predict what will Trump do?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on January 24, 2017, 05:04:16 PM
Oscars nominations are here: La La Land has 14, Arrival and Moonlight 8, but who will prevail in the end?

Today La La Land equaled record for the most Oscar nominations, as this beautiful musical continued impressive awards season with 14 nods, and so leveled with current nominee record-holders All About Eve and Titanic. In the end Titanic won 11 Oscars, but how many will La La Land will, and can it complete The Big 4 for Picture, Director, Actor and Actress?

How many of the 'Big 4' Oscars will La La Land win?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/how-many-of-the-big-4-oscars-will-la-la-land-win/.


La La Land is a huge favorite for both Best Picture and Best Director Damien Chazelle, but it is a question can it also win awards for the Best Actor and Best Actress. As for the other movies, Moonlight got eight nominations, the same number as Arrival. But can either of them, or some other movie stop La La Land from winning the Best Picture Award?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Picture
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-picture-1/.


With the six nominations follow Lion and Manchester by the Sea whose director Kenneth Lonergan is the second favorite for the Best Director, and it looks like that only he or Barry Jankins, who directed Moonlight, can stop Damien Chazelle from being the big winner. Or can maybe Best Director Award go to Denis Villeneuve for creating Arrival?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Director
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-director-1/.


Best Actor is one of the categories where La La Land is not amongst the main favorites as its Ryan Gosling in only third favorite at the Fairlay market. By far the biggest favorite is Casey Affleck for his lead role in a drama Manchester by the Sea, while the second favorite is Denzel Washington for the role in his own movie Fences. Who will celebrate in the end?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actor-1/.


Emma Stone is the first favorite for the Best Actress, though she is far from the big favorite. The main reason for this is Natalie Portman who was superb portraying Jackie Kennedy. So, who of them will prevail, or could we have a surprise as other nominees are Isabelle Huppert for Elle, Ruth Negga for Loving, and Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Actress
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-actress-2/.


Hell or High Water is another movie with six nominations, and its Jeff Bridges is one of the actors who could win the Best Supporting Actor Award. Though Michael Shannon for his role in Nocturnal Animals is ranked high, it looks like this will after all be an easy win for Mahershala Ali and his role in Moonlight. But, could this category bring one of the surprises?

The Oscars 2017 - Best Supporting Actor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-supporting-actor/.


It is almost the same story for the Best Supporting Actress Award as Viola Davis is the huge favorite for her role in Fences. Michelle Williams, Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, and Octavia Spencer were all great in their roles but its rather unlikely that any of them will be awarded. Still, you never know, and thus hurry up to make your own Oscars predictions.

The Oscars 2017 - Best Supporting Actress
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/the-oscars-2017-best-supporting-actress/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 06, 2017, 01:08:50 PM
Juppe confirms he will not replace scandal-ridden Fillon: Will Emmanuel Macron be the next French President?

Few weeks ago it looked like Francois Fillon will easily become the next French President, but the election has recently been thrown open since allegations that the longstanding centre-right favourite paid his wife and children close to €1m of public money for parliamentary assistance jobs that investigators suspect she did not do.

These days speculation started that Alain Juppe could replace scandal-ridden Fillon who could drop out as the Republicans candidate, but this morning Juppe confirmed on his twitter feed that he stands behind Fillon. As you remember, Juppe was the first favourite on the markets before he lost the Republicans primary in November.

With all of this, the most unpredictable French election in decades picked up pace. So, who will win them?

Next French President, Predict at Fairlay:
https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.


This weekend far-right leader Marion Le Pen published a presidential programme built around putting France first, reclaiming sovereignty from the EU and curbing immigration. And opinion polls still predict Le Pen will win the first round of the two-stage contest in April but be defeated in the May 7 run-off by a mainstream candidate.

And, with Francois Fillon losing all the trust, this mainstream candidate is now centrist Emmanuel Macron. Former Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs is now given a 46% chance at the newest Fairlay market, with Marine Le Pen at 33%, while Francois Fillon is now given only a 13% chance to become the next French President.

We saw that a lot can change overnight in France, but who will prevail in the end? Macron, Le Pen, someone else?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 06, 2017, 05:41:31 PM
If $1000 is becoming a support level, can Bitcoin hit $1200, $1300, or even $1400 before April?

Bitcoin prices experienced notable gains in the recent weeks, pushing higher while analysts pointed to the recent improvement in sentiment as the impetus for the increases. Some think that $1000 is becoming a support level, but what will then happen in the next two months?

Bitcoin to top 1200 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 57% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1200-usd-before-april-1/.


Earlier this month, as CoinDesk writes, trader sentiment encountered headwinds when bitcoin’s sharp price volatility motivated the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to intervene and meet with major Chinese exchanges BTCC, Huobi and OKCoin. The startups later eliminated margin trading and began charging trading fees, two developments some have speculated would help reduce volatility.

Bitcoin to top 1300 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 33% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1300-usd-before-april-1/.


However, bitcoin trading volume flooded to no-fee exchanges, which once again raised the question of which trading volume figures were reliable. More recently, traders have become more optimistic, according to several market observers. So, will Bitcoin Price go up even more before April?

Bitcoin to top 1400 USD before April 1?
Fairlay market gives it a 21% chance: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1400-usd-before-april-1/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 07, 2017, 01:49:55 PM
German Federal Election: Will CDU/CSU win the most seats, and will Angela Merkel take the fourth term in office?

This year brings few of the high-stakes elections around the European Union that, after Brexit, could bring even greater uncertainty to the bloc. It all starts with the Netherlands’ General Election on March 15, continues with France’s Presidential Election in April and May, and should finish on September 24 with German Federal Election.

Will the end of September bring another term for Chancellor Angela Merkel, or will she be stopped this year?

Merkel to be replaced as Chancellor in 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/merkel-to-be-replaced-as-chancellor-in-2017/.


http://i.huffpost.com/gen/3366390/images/o-ANGELA-MERKEL-facebook.jpg

As France24 wrote recently, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union or CSU, are widely tipped to win the largest share of seats, handing Chancellor Angela Merkel a fourth term in office. But they are unlikely to match the 42% of votes won in 2013, since the winds of rebellion that have swept across the Western world are also lashing at Europe’s bastion of stability.

Merkel's "open door" refugee policy and a heightened terrorist threat have exposed her to unprecedented criticism, and some surveys showed that support for the right-wing, anti-immigrant, anti-Islam, Eurosceptic AfD (Alternative for Germany) party had soared to more than 15% nationwide. Could they use the following months even better?

But AfD is still the third favorite behind Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), and the Social Democrats (SPD).

German Federal Election - Most Seats
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/german-federal-election-most-seats/.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/2331546/images/o-MARTIN-SCHULZ-facebook.jpg

Angela Merkel surely likes being the German chancellor and she already announced that she will run for a fourth term (she has held the post since 2005) but on Monday she also admitted that she was facing the toughest election campaign of her career, as a shock opinion poll found her party trailing for the first time in almost seven years.

According to the poll for Bild newspaper, Martin Schulz, the former European parliament president and outspoken EU critic, is now leading the race to be Germany’s next leader. His centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) came first with 31 per cent, ahead of Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) on 30 per cent. Thus, Martin Schulz has now emerged as the most serious challenger Angela Merkel has faced in more than a decade in power.

Though Angela Merkel is still Fairlay’s favorite, Schulz is not far behind. So, September 24 will be all but a boring day.

German Federal Election - Next Elected Chancellor
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/german-federal-election-next-elected-chancellor/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 07, 2017, 06:51:36 PM
Segregated Witness' political implications: Will SegWit activate before November?

“Bitcoin Unlimited blocks are on the rise while Core block are dropping. #Segwit activation at 95% is not happening anytime soon.“

“If the brilliant "BU Economists" weren't politicking, they'd acknowledge #SegWit would lower fees today & they would push for activation.“

“Angry guys can get a lot done, and a commitment to stick with BU is yet another actor blocking #SegWit activation.“

These are some of the recent tweets regarding Segregated Witness which confirm that SegWit is still controversial due to its political implications for the Bitcoin ecosystem. Could those stop Segregated Witness from activating?

Will SegWit activate before November 1st 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-segwit-activate-before-november-1st-2017/.

http://segwit.co/static/public/images/logo.png

But it is not only about 'Bitcoin Core vs Bitcoin Unlimited' as a lot of companies remain undecided on whether or not they should prepare SegWit support. The longer the companies wait, the longer it will take for SegWit activation.

In the meantime, the number of SegWit-enabled blocks discovered on the networks is still around low 25%. Thus, it is a big question can (and if, when) Seg Wit reach 95% support?

And though some people are confident SegWit will activate in March, even November activation is not a sure thing. In fact, Fairlay market gives SegWit only a 37% chance to activate before November.

So, what do you think? Will issues in politics be resolved by hand with those in technology, and will Bitcoin Unlimited supporters and companies stand behind Segregated Witness? Or will SegWit soon become just a part of history?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 08, 2017, 10:03:20 AM
Far-right party still leading in Dutch polls: Will PVV and Geert Wilders prevail in March 15 General Election?

We already have markets for France’s Presidential Election (https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/) in April and May, and German Federal Election (https://fairlay.com/market/german-federal-election-most-seats/) that is scheduled for September 24 but the set of high-stakes elections that could derail the European Union starts on March 15 with the Dutch General Election. And the far-right Freedom Party (PVV) is leading in the polls.

Leader of PVV is Geert Wilders, who has already called for a Brexit-style referendum on quitting the EU and a ban on immigration from Muslim countries. With this rebellious mood that helped Brexit and Trump, his anti-EU, anti-immigrant and anti-Islam party could take the following election and most seats in the next government.

Dutch General Election - Most Seats
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/dutch-general-election-most-seats/.


http://i.huffpost.com/gen/2903594/images/o-GEERT-WILDERS-facebook.jpg

However, even if it wins the General Election it is unlikely that the PVV will be part of the next coalition. A broad coalition of other mainstream parties is still likely to shut Wilders and his PVV out. In January, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte ruled out a coalition between his People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the PVV.

As some of the recent polls showed that Geert Wilders' PVV is set to win 35 of the 76 seats needed to form a coalition government (as the VVD is about to win just 23), there are opinions that Wilders is not too far away from becoming the Dutch Prime Minister. Fairlay market gives a 29% chance for this to happen. What do you think?

Geert Wilders to become Dutch Prime Minister in 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/geert-wilders-to-become-dutch-prime-minister-in-2017/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 08, 2017, 04:53:03 PM
Bitfinex's Token (BFX) reached all time price high of $0.84: Will it reach $1 before 2018?

Remember August 2 and Bitfinex Hack? You probably do. Maybe you are even of of the Bitfinex depositor that took a 36% loss, and was credited with an equivalent number of Bitfinex tokens (BFX) representing the dollar value of the loss. Well, if you still have those BFX tokens you can now sell them at $0.84, all time price high.

So, in the start Bitfinex $1 loss granted 1 BFX in return, and it was a long-term idea that Bitfinex attempts to buy back those tokens as close to face value as possible. In August, many didn't think that even $0.5 in return was possible.

But BFX soon started to grow, and after trading within a range of between $0.49 and $0.65 through the end of 2016, the price of BFX has followed a steady, upward trend, rising almost 60% from its recent low of $0.49 in December. And with its current price of $0.83, it looks like BFX could soon reach the magic price of $1.

Will 1 BFX reach 1 USD?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-1-bfx-reach-1-usd/.

http://sobrebitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/bitfinex-hacked.jpg

As CoinDesk wrote recently, the Bitfinex tokens have enjoyed notable gains lately as investors continue to purchase them in anticipation of later redeeming them for dollars or equity in iFinex Inc, Bitfinex’s parent company.

And in January statement Bitfinex said that it will continue to "expeditiously retire" more tokens via a variety of initiatives going forward. Thus, some think that all the tokens could be 'retired' in 2017, and that means that BFX could reach $1 before 2018. With the recent rise, it could even happen in the following months.

So, what do you think? How soon will BFX reach $1 and could its price go even above $1 before all the tokens are 'retired'? After slow opening, Fairlay market now gives a 85% chance for 1 BFX to reach 1 USD in 2017.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 09, 2017, 10:22:25 AM
Russian Presidential Election is set for March 2018: Will Vladimir Putin be re-elected?

Yesterday, Russia's main opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, has been found guilty of embezzlement and handed a five-year suspended sentence. This bars him from running for president next year against Vladimir Putin.

So yes, current President Vladimir Putin is eligible to seek re-election at the Russian presidential election that is scheduled to be held on March 11, 2018 for the first round and April 1, 2018 for the potential second round.

Now the only question is will he enter elections and then win them? January 30 polling once again gave him high 65%, with Vladimir Zhirinovsky, who is already confirmed as candidate of Liberal Democratic Party, following with only 10%. Potential Communist Party candidate Gennady Zyuganov is polling with 4%, all others with 1% or less.

Russian Presidential Election
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/russian-presidential-election/.


http://i.huffpost.com/gen/4696674/images/o-VLADIMIR-PUTIN-facebook.jpg

Besides not entering elections, only thing stopping Putin from winning is some major economic crisis but it's not likely to happen in the following years. So, those who want to use high odds betting against Putin can use rumors that Putin will not enter as they are preparing the new guy, someone like Alexey Dyumin, Governor of Tula Oblast.

There are also many other potential replacements from the ruling United Russia party, those like former President and current Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, or Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov.

With Navalny barred from running, Putin entering or not entering elections will probably decide them. But could it be smart to already bet on anyone but Putin if rumors of him not running are true? You have Fairlay for that (https://fairlay.com/market/russian-presidential-election/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 09, 2017, 03:57:34 PM
Will Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC on March 11?

Three years ago, the Winklevoss brothers, twins Cameron and Tyler, had filed their first application for a bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) called Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. Investors soon showed keen interest in the Winklevoss ETF but it is still scheduled to be approved by the SEC (the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission).

If this approval happens, this would be the first bitcoin ETF issued by a U.S. entity, and this ETF would trade under the ticker symbol COIN. In October, they also filed amendments to their proposed bitcoin exchange-traded fund, naming State Street (American worldwide financial services holding company) as administrator.

At the start of January, the SEC said it will decide on March 11 whether to approve the COIN. Soon after that Needham & Company (independent investment bank and asset management firm specializing in advisory services and financings for growth companies) put together a report on the prospects of the Winklevoss twins’ proposed ETF.

Will a bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.


http://media.coindesk.com/uploads/2016/05/Screen-Shot-2016-05-05-at-4.24.09-PM-e1462479902613.png

According to the report, the positive effect that a bitcoin ETF would have on the price of bitcoin is vastly underappreciated, and the probability of approval is drastically overestimated within the industry (not a surprise as it would, in the first week alone, lead to an influx of $300 million in new investor capital into the bitcoin ecosystem).

Thus, Needham puts the chances of a bitcoin ETF approval in 2017 at below 25 percent. As Bitcoin Magazine notes, due to the nascent nature of the technology as well as the fear, uncertainty and doubt surrounding it, Needham thinks approval of the bitcoin ETF will be too risky a proposition for individuals working at the SEC at this time.

The SEC already had few delays about this decision but it's important to note that the series of possible extensions permitted by law is capped at 240 days from the initial submission date in June 2016. So, March 11 should bring the answer, and what do you think it will be? At the moment, Fairlay market gives this approval only a 23% chance (https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 10, 2017, 09:52:18 AM
When will the UK trigger Article 50, and in which year will it leave the EU?

Britain voted to leave the European Union at a referendum held 232 days ago, but that referendum in which British voters opted to leave the European Union did not automatically signal the country's exit. That is the job of Article 50, and Britain's negotiations to exit the EU can only begin when Article 50 is formally triggered by the UK.

When will Article 50 be triggered?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-the-uk-trigger-article-50-before-1-july-2017/.


Theresa May finally revealed ahead of her first speech as Prime Minister at the Tory Party Conference that she would trigger Article 50, formally notifying the intention to withdraw, no later than the end of March 2017. And as Telegraph writes, that means Britain should officially leave the EU no later than April 2019. 

Thus, the process of the UK leaving the EU is supposed to take two years but many people believe that it could take longer. The road ahead is unclear. No state has left the European Union before, and the rules for exit, contained in Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon (which became law in December 2009), are brief.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/4702482/images/o-BREXIT-facebook.jpg

In which year will the UK leave the EU?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/in-which-year-will-the-uk-leave-the-eu/.


The next stage of the Article 50 will see the Brexit bill scrutinized by the House of Lords, where the Government does not have a majority, on Monday, February 20. So, it is likely that Article 50 will be triggered before July, and Fairlay market gives it a high 90% chance. But will the UK leave the EU in 2019? Other Fairlay market gives it a 73% chance.

Or, if the government decides that parliament and public opinion have thoroughly turned against Brexit, the UK could simply go cap in hand to the EU and "ask whether we can just forget the whole thing and remain a member", as it was explained by the fact-checking charity Full Fact. What do you think about all of this?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 10, 2017, 04:31:41 PM
Adele vs. Beyoncé: Which one will be the queen of the 59th annual Grammy Awards held on Sunday?

The 59th annual Grammy Awards are scheduled for the following Sunday at it looks like they could be interesting as ever. The main reason for this is one of the Grammy’s most electric contest in years: Adele vs. Beyoncé.

They will face off in each of the top three categories: Album, Record, and Song Of The Year, but they rivalry will also touch some sensitive topics like race as some think that Grammys too often fail to recognize black performers.

Grammys 2017 - Adele vs. Beyoncé
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/grammys-2017-adele-vs-beyonce/.


As Fairlay market gives Beyoncé a 60% chance to win more Grammy Awards than Adele, it is rather important to note that Beyoncé has nine nominations, the most this year, while Adele is nominated in ‘only’ five categories.

Still, some think that we could see a sweep by Adele who is, besides those three main categories, also nominated for Best Pop Solo Performance, and Best Pop Vocal Album. Fairlay market gives her a 28% chance to win the all five.

Grammys 2017 - Adele to win five Grammys
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/grammys-2017-adele-to-win-five-grammys/.


http://i.huffpost.com/gen/3681226/images/o-ADELE-facebook.jpg

Category that Adele could the most easily lose on Sunday is for Album of the Year as Beyonce’s ‘Lemonade’ is given a bit more chances at the Fairlay market (though not too much: 60% to 39%) than Adele is for her ‘25’.

And yes, let’s note that Sturgill Simpson, Justin Bieber, Drake, Rihanna, Lukas Graham, Twenty One Pilots, and Mike Posner also got nominations in the three main categories but it looks like that it will be all about Adele vs. Beyoncé.

Grammys 2017 - Album Of The Year
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/grammys-2017-album-of-the-year/.


Also, let’s once again note that Record Of The Year recognizes every aspect of a track (performance, production, mixing, etc), while Song Of The Year focuses solely on the songwriting. But can Adele still win both of them?

She is a rather big favorite for Song Of The Year (which is, of course, ‘Hello’) as Fairlay market gives her a 76% chance to win this category. Beyoncé and her ‘Formation’ are the second favorite, but with the only a 19% chance given.

Grammys 2017 - Song Of The Year
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/grammys-2017-song-of-the-year/.


http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1559552/images/o-BEYONCE-GRAMMYS-facebook.jpg

We have ‘Hello’ vs. ‘Formation’ duel for Record Of The Year as well, though Beyoncé is now given a bit more chances Still, Adele is once again the first favorite with a 62% chance given to prevail in this category as well.

So, Los Angeles and its Staples Center will get all the attention on Sunday evening, but who will get it on Monday morning: Adele or Beyoncé? You surely have your favorite, and now you can also use the high odds at Fairlay.

Grammys 2017 - Record Of The Year
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/grammys-2017-record-of-the-year/.


P.S. If you want to place bets in the market that has neither Adele nor Beyoncé, you can place prediction on Best New Artist category. Chance the Rapper is given a 69% chance, followed with The Chainsmokers who have a 27% (https://fairlay.com/market/grammys-2017-best-new-artist/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 13, 2017, 04:17:14 PM
Can Bitcoin Unlimited overatake SegWit, and then reach a 75% support during this year?

Though it looked rather different few months ago, things are once again changing when it comes to scaling. After the great start, SegWit unexpectedly stalled at around 25%, and has been slightly dropping in the past few weeks. And SegWit's future doesn't look great as Fairlay market now gives it only a 22% chance to activate before November (https://fairlay.com/market/will-segwit-activate-before-november-1st-2017/).

But while SegWit has stalled, Bitcoin Unlimited has quietly gained further adoption. As reporter Andrew Quentson wrote last month, a considerable increase in its difficulty coincides with the entrance of a new miner, BTC.TOP. They appear to be mining on Unlimited, the fourth new miner to do so, following ViaBTC, GBMiners and bitcoin.com.

Will Bitcoin Unlimited reach 75% support in 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-bitcoin-unlimited-reach-75-support-in-2017/.


http://i.imgur.com/l6TY75y.png

It appears, therefore, that rather than a stalemate miners have made a clear decision. They seem to have fully rejected SegWit. They appear to strongly require a maxblocksize increase and the newer miners seem to clearly prefer Bitcoin Unlimited as they are convinced that Bitcoin Unlimited is the best approach at the moment.

So, this new dynamic suggests that with Bitcoin Unlimited now nearing 20%, potentially further increasing as the new miners exploit inefficiencies and grab all opportunities, the network might not be far off from a significant threshold where other miners have little choice, but to join. Thus, can Bitcoin Unlimited reach 75% support?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 14, 2017, 01:51:05 PM
Trump tweeted “SEE YOU IN COURT” but will Supreme Court review, and then reinstate his travel ban?

The Justice Department said in a brief filed on yesterday that it would continue to defend President Trump’s targeted ban in the federal appeals court in San Francisco, which last week refused to reinstate it. As The New York Times notes, the department did not say whether it would try to appeal that ruling to the Supreme Court.

But its silence on the matter suggested that the Trump administration will not pursue an immediate appeal. So, it is possible that administration may have decided that the chances of success at the Supreme Court are poor, as it appears unlikely that any of the court’s four more liberal justices would support the administration’s position.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/5074480/images/o-DONALD-TRUMP-facebook.jpg

Will Supreme Court reinstate Trump travel ban?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-supreme-court-reinstate-trump-travel-ban/.


Thus, unless the appeals court or the Supreme Court acts, Judge Robart’s temporary restraining order, which blocked the key provisions of targeted travel ban, will remain in place. Still, for many Trump’s tweet “SEE YOU IN COURT, THE SECURITY OF OUR NATION IS AT STAKE!” indicated that he will ask the Supreme Court to review the appeal.

But if the Supreme Court agreed to hear an emergency appeal in the case, a ruling might be expected quickly, within days, given the brisk pace of appeals so far. Thus, the next question is will Trump appeal the case, and then it’s all on the side of Supreme Court. At the moment, Fairlay market gives only a 29% chance that it will reinstate Trump ban.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 15, 2017, 02:57:28 PM
Bitcoin's price battles resistance at $1,000: How long will it take for a $1000 level to break?

Bitcoin prices continued to fluctuate around $1,000 these days, some hours above and some hours below it. Currently it is at $1009, but it will be interesting to see where will it go next as there are many factors at the moment. Focus is on China, but there is also possible approval of Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, while support for either SegWit or Bitcoin Unlimited could go up in the following months. And how will all of this influence Bitcoin price?

Bitcoin price on March 1
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-march-1-6/.

As CoinDesk explains, all eyes are still on China as, according to analysts, traders remain reluctant about placing bets in the market, as concerns linger about further actions from the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the nation's central bank. The digital currency has experienced significant volatility in the last several weeks, as the PBOC's decision to crack down on domestic exchanges has caused these marketplaces to announce a slew of sudden policy changes.

Bitcoin to top 1150 USD before March 1
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1150-usd-before-march-1/.

But trader sentiment is also a factor and there's evidence backing this theory, as traders put in a large number sell orders around the $1,000 price point. This resistance was confirmed by both order book data and the input of market analysts. Exchanges Bitfinex and Kraken showed the number of sell orders exceeding the number of buy orders close to the $1,000 mark. So, it looks like that $1,000 is a level that is going to take some time to break.

http://i.imgur.com/Y3SSwKj.jpg

Bitcoin price on April 1
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-april-1-5/.


"The $1,000 level is indeed a strong psychological resistance. Bitcoin will need to cleanly break above $1,000 (high-volume rise and sustained price action above 1000) to transform that level into price support," explained for CoinDesk Petar Zivkovski, COO of leveraged bitcoin trading platform Whaleclub. He added that there are potential bullish catalysts, citing the approval of a Bitcoin ETF or positive regulatory news from China as two possible boons.

Will a bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.


Thus, it remains to be seen how the markets will evolve over the coming weeks. The bitcoin price has held firm so far, although there is still a bit of unrest to be noted all over the world. As The Merkle notes, China is no longer in charge of dictating the global average value of bitcoin. But, without market not being dictated by one nation, what will happen with Bitcoin Price in the next week? Will it go up, down, or will stay around $1000 for the time being?

Bitcoin to top 1300 USD before May 1
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-to-top-1300-usd-before-may-1/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 16, 2017, 05:08:54 PM
Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor fight getting closer? Will it happen this, or at least the next year?

News broke on the morning of Valentine’s Day that Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor have agreed financial terms for a boxing match that would be one of the $$$ ones in the sport’s history. So, will this fight actually happen?

Rumors about Mayweather’s comeback started in April last year, and already in May started talks that fight between Mayweather and MMA star McGregor is in the works. But, till two days ago, most viewed the likelihood of this matchup to be more fantasy than reality, and then couple of different reports told that the fight is rather possible.

http://judo1.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/25200508/fb1e2ae1b61396f53ed6cf73d45a4c67.jpeg

Will Mayweather vs. McGregor happen in 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-mayweather-vs-mcgregor-happen-in-2017/.


Still, at the same time, UFC boss Dana White has dealt a blow to fight fans hoping to see a clash between Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather, by insisting the showdown will never happen as Conor has contract with MMA.

Thus, will UFC star Conor McGregor ever step into the ring to face boxing legend Floyd Mayweather? It is also important to note that any fight would almost certainly be under boxing rules (at Fairlay market for this fight to happen it must be an official licensed boxing contest) as McGregor also applied for a boxing license last year.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/2904504/images/o-MAYWEATHER-facebook.jpg

Will Mayweather vs. McGregor happen before 2019?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-mayweather-vs-mcgregor-happen-before-2019/.


Though Mayweather has not fought since September 2015, and McGregor is the current UFC lightweight champion, boxing pundits think that Mayweather would absolutely dust McGregor, as McGregor has no pro boxing experience.

But, in the end, it is all about money. For Mayweather to step from his wealthy retirement, the money has to be right. And as Mayweather can wait, McGregor needs him far more than he needs McGregor. So, will this fight happen this, or at least next year? There are different opinions and now you can make your own at Fairlay.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 17, 2017, 03:53:41 PM
April 23 brings the French presidential election: Who will win the first round, and who will be in the runoff?

As Bloomberg wrote this morning, French bonds are weakening on the news that two left-wing candidates, Benoit Hamon and Jean-Luc Melenchon, are holding talks to unify their campaigns, potentially setting up a final-round showdown between Marine Le Pen and a leftist. At the same time, markets perceive this to be good news for the anti-euro candidate, and her odds of winning in the betting markets have hit a new high of about 35 percent.

Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.


Fairlay’s market gives Le Pen a 31% chance at the moment, with Emmanuel Macron still in lead with a 44% chance to be the next French President. As Francois Fillon has a 17% chance, could the possible cooperation of two main left-leaning candidates get on move option ‘Other’ that is now at only 12%? As for the first round vote, scheduled for April 23, with runoff set for May 7, Marine Le Pen is still a rather big favorite to win the most votes in April.

http://tendanceclaire.org/contenu/images/edito.png

Next French President: First round winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-first-round-winner/.


Since the start of January, Le Pen has been in lead at all the ‘First round’ polls that give her now around a 26% chance, with Macron and FIllon tied at 20% for the first round. But new Fairlay market gives Le Pen high 69%, Macron is at 24%, while Fillon and all the other candidates are almost without the chance to prevail in April. Still, possible uniting of the left could easily change all of this, and who would then enter the runoff in May?

Next French President: Final Two
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-final-two-1/.


It is not a surprise that the combination of Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen is given the most chances to be on the runoff election, while Francois Fillon and Marine Le Pen facing each other on May 7 wouldn’t be such a surprise either. But could Benoit Hamon or Jean-Luc Melenchon find their way to the runoff as well, or could Le Pen stay without it? Well, with Trump and Brexit we learned that anything is possible so predict wisely at Fairlay markets.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 20, 2017, 05:16:21 PM
How high will go Bitcoin price on March 15, if Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC on March 11?

Winklevoss twins’ Bitcoin ETF is taking more and more focus of the Bitcoin community as on March 11 the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) should finally make YES or NO verdict in case of the final and official approval of the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF (COIN). We already talked about the chances of this approval coming through.

Most think that this ETF will not be approved as they agree that this approval of the Bitcoin ETF is too risky a proposition for individuals working at the SEC at this time. Still, approval’s chances at Fairlay market got a bit up recently as it is now given a 32% chance, after being at 23% ten days ago. So, could this approval really happen?

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1697719/images/o-SECURITIES-EXCHANGE-COMMISSION-facebook.jpg

Will a Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.


And as chances for this approval are slightly going up, talk about how high up will Bitcoin price go after the approval is rather popular these days. That Bitcoin will go up is almost sure, as ETF would likely attract more than $300 million into the market in its first week alone. Some even say that up to $1 billion will be injected into the market.

Ten days ago, quantitative analysis and value research firm, Emerita Capital, assigned a probability of 35% for approval against 65% probability of rejection, making final average expected price $1645. They also provide a target price of $3,678 for Bitcoin in case an ETF is approved in 2017 and a target price of $551 in case it is rejected this year.

http://gazettereview.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Bitcoin.jpg

Bitcoin price on March 15 if Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF is approved by the SEC?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-price-on-march-15-if-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-is-approved-by-the-sec/.


So, it is sure that the approval of this Bitcoin ETF could set off a trading frenzy, but how big could it be? As WSJ explained, the small size of the Bitcoin market could still be an impediment to orderly fund trading. Across all U.S. exchanges the average daily volume of bitcoin traded is about $30 million. Thus, it's not easy to grab $300 million.

Though, it is also noted that it’s impossible to buy $2 million of bitcoin on any given day on U.S. exchanges without moving the market. So, if Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust ETF is approved on March 11, what could happen in the following days, and where could Bitcoin price be on March 15? Up to $1200, $1400, above $1500? Well, predict at Fairlay.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 21, 2017, 06:47:02 PM
Kim Dotcom faces US Extradition but will he indeed be extradited to the USA?

“My C̶o̶p̶y̶r̶i̶g̶h̶t̶ no sorry, my Fraud judgement has been reported by 8642 news sites in 196 countries. Most prominent case in NZ history,” twitted Kim Dotcom, founder of file-storage and file-sharing companies Mega and Megaupload, after he has suffered another defeat in court. In the latest ruling, New Zealand High Court upheld an earlier decision finding that Dotcom and business associates could be extradited to the USA to face charges.

As TechCrunch noted, while the latest legal decision means Dotcom could face charges in the USA, it is a victory in one sense: As part of the ruling, Justice Gilbert agreed with one of Dotcom’s arguments, namely that New Zealand had no equivalent “copyright” crime that could be used to activate the extradition treaty. However, the High Court ruled that Dotcom and others could be extradited on USA fraud and racketeering charges.

http://i2.wp.com/vesselnews.io/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/o-KIM-DOTCOM-facebook.jpg

So, will Kim Dotcom be extradited to USA?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-kim-dotcom-be-extradited-to-usa/.

Once again, Dotcom plans to appeal the ruling, which could send the case to the Court of Appeal and perhaps even the New Zealand Supreme Court. In an interview with the New Zealand Herald, Dotcom predicted there are still another two years of legal battles ahead: "We'll be looking at a seven-year total timeframe before there is a final resolution on this matter. I am now more confident than ever that we will prevail." Will they, indeed?

“Don't worry. Be happy. I'll never be extradited,“ twitted the ever-confident Dotcom as well yesterday. But, most think that Kim Dotcom is likely to be extradited to the USA, despite a New Zealand judge clearing him of local copyright infringement. His legal team managed to clear his name of copyright infringement, but will Kim Dotcom in the next two years be extradited to the United States of America to face trial for other 13 counts? Predict at Fairlay (https://fairlay.com/market/will-kim-dotcom-be-extradited-to-usa/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on February 22, 2017, 06:30:22 PM
Marine Le Pen and leaving Euro: Will Deutsche Bank go bankrupt if Le Pen becomes the French President?

As Deutsche Welle wrote recently, Deutsche Bank, Germany's biggest lender, has accrued a massive loss for the second year running as legal costs for past misdeeds outstripped profits from bond trading, disappointing investors who had hoped for a better result.

The troubled German banking giant reported a net loss of 1.4 billion euros ($1.5 billion) for 2016, so Deutsche Bank is still struggling with the impact of huge fines, lower revenues and restructuring costs. And later on, New York and British financial regulators slapped Deutsche Bank with a $630-million penalty for alleged money laundering in Russia.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1589904/images/o-DEUTSCHE-BANK-facebook.jpg

Will Deutsche Bank go bankrupt if Marine Le Pen becomes the French President?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-deutsche-bank-go-bankrupt-if-marine-le-pen-becomes-french-president/.


Today, Business Insider wrote that Deutsche Bank is set to announce another big shake-up in its senior ranks. The changes would be the latest in a series of leadership changes at the bank that could face even bigger problems in May, if Marine Le Pen becomes the next French President as she has promised to renegotiate the terms of France's membership of the European Union if elected president.

So, many agree that Deutsche Bank, which is already in freefall, could get near bankruptcy if Le Pen becomes the next French President. Even if it gets on the brink of bankruptcy, it could easily be bailed out by German government, though Fairlay market resolves this like bankruptcy (https://fairlay.com/market/will-deutsche-bank-go-bankrupt-if-marine-le-pen-becomes-french-president/) as well. So, what will happen?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 03, 2017, 12:06:08 PM
Eurovision Song Contest 2017: Can anyone stop Italy and Francesco Gabbani from winning it this year?

Eurovision 2016 market was one of the most popular Fairlay markets last year, so it is already time to start making the predictions for Eurovision 2017. This year Eurovision will take place take place in Kiev, following Ukraine's victory at the 2016 contest in Stockholm. It will consist of two semi-finals held on 9 and 11 May and the final on 13 May 2017.

43 countries will participate this year, and though some of them still didn’t announce who will represent them (they will in the following weeks), there is already a lot of talk about the potential winners. For that matter, most eyes are on Sweden that is still to hold Final of its Melodifestivalen 2017, with plenty of popular artists looking for their place in Kiev.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/5095918/images/o-GABBANI-facebook.jpg

Eurovision 2017 - Winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/eurovision-2017-winner/.


Because of this, Sweden is already the second favorite at Eurovison 2017 market, followed by Greece and its beautiful Dimitra Papadea, also known as Demy, and Russia that is still to announce its candidate. Australia, which is to announce its candidate on Tuesday, is still ranked high, as well as Romania which will keep its National Final on Sunday.

Still, most of the talk at the moment is about Italy and its Francesco Gabbani. He will come to Kiev with the ‘Occidentali's Karma’ song that already won the Sanremo Music Festival 2017, and has 40 million Youtube views since its release three weeks ago. So, Eurovision market opens with Italy being the biggest favorite but will that change in the next weeks?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: cyrixcer on March 06, 2017, 04:25:52 AM
Will Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC on March 11?

Three years ago, the Winklevoss brothers, twins Cameron and Tyler, had filed their first application for a bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) called Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. Investors soon showed keen interest in the Winklevoss ETF but it is still scheduled to be approved by the SEC (the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission).

If this approval happens, this would be the first bitcoin ETF issued by a U.S. entity, and this ETF would trade under the ticker symbol COIN. In October, they also filed amendments to their proposed bitcoin exchange-traded fund, naming State Street (American worldwide financial services holding company) as administrator.

At the start of January, the SEC said it will decide on March 11 whether to approve the COIN. Soon after that Needham & Company (independent investment bank and asset management firm specializing in advisory services and financings for growth companies) put together a report on the prospects of the Winklevoss twins’ proposed ETF.

Will a bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC by May 1, 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.


http://media.coindesk.com/uploads/2016/05/Screen-Shot-2016-05-05-at-4.24.09-PM-e1462479902613.png

According to the report, the positive effect that a bitcoin ETF would have on the price of bitcoin is vastly underappreciated, and the probability of approval is drastically overestimated within the industry (not a surprise as it would, in the first week alone, lead to an influx of $300 million in new investor capital into the bitcoin ecosystem).

Thus, Needham puts the chances of a bitcoin ETF approval in 2017 at below 25 percent. As Bitcoin Magazine notes, due to the nascent nature of the technology as well as the fear, uncertainty and doubt surrounding it, Needham thinks approval of the bitcoin ETF will be too risky a proposition for individuals working at the SEC at this time.

The SEC already had few delays about this decision but it's important to note that the series of possible extensions permitted by law is capped at 240 days from the initial submission date in June 2016. So, March 11 should bring the answer, and what do you think it will be? At the moment, Fairlay market gives this approval only a 23% chance (https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/).

What is the odds? I never used your site before, I can't understand the situation, why there are 3 odds in On, and the other 3 in off? You are different from general betting exchange like betfair.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 09, 2017, 01:03:31 PM
How likely is Bitcoin ETF approval? Friday will bring the answer but what will it be?

March 11 has for weeks been in the focus of Bitcoin community as the US Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) decision on the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is scheduled for that day. Though, because the 11th falls on a Saturday, that decision will likely come tomorrow. But what will it be, and will Bitcoin ETF be approved?

As CoinTelegraph wrote yesterday, around 72 percent of the public is in favor of the Bitcoin ETF approval so far. The other 28 percent have cited some of the issues the Bitcoin network is dealing with, but in consideration of the state of the Bitcoin network as of current, the problems mentioned by ETF opposers aren’t necessarily urgent issues which the SEC should consider for the ETF approval.

Will a Bitcoin ETF be approved by the SEC?
Predict at: https://fairlay.com/market/will-a-bitcoin-etf-be-approved-by-the-sec-by-may-1-2017/.


One of the issues that were frequently brought up by the ETF opposers was the fear of hard fork. Some of the public comments included concerns over the execution of a potential hard fork and the occurrence of a split chain. A split in the chain could lead to the creation of another fork of bitcoin and essentially create two currencies, the 28 percent of the public stated that a Bitcoin ETF isn’t ready to be introduced to the public.

Still, at Fairlay market Bitcoin ETF Approaval is given an only 41 percent at the moment, as traders are already preparing for the storm. So, the SEC doesn’t benefit from the approval of the Bitcoin ETF as the SEC isn’t incentivized for the performance of the ETF but it will surely change the Bitcoin price a lot. In which way, up or down?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on March 29, 2017, 11:38:03 AM
2017 Nobel Peace Prize Winner: Pope Francis, American Civil Liberties Union, White Helmets, or someone else?

There were plenty of different reactions after the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the President of Colombia Juan Manuel Santos, as the announcement was a surprise since before that the national referendum on October 2 was narrowly defeated. What kind of reactions are we going to have after 2017 Nobel Peace Prize announcement?

It is not a surprise that Pope Francis is once again amongst the biggest favorites, and media will once again write that he should win it as the Pope has framed all the current issues in moral terms, asking for all of the world’s people and governments to reflect upon and live out their moral responsibilities to creation and the vulnerable people of the world.  

But, who else could take the Nobel Peace Prize this year? Currently, American Civil Liberties Union is a popular choice as their stated mission "to defend and preserve the individual rights and liberties guaranteed to every person in this country by the Constitution and laws of the United States" is a popular one against the policies of Donald Trump.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/2638778/images/o-POPE-FRANCIS-MERKEL-facebook.jpg

2017 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/2017-nobel-peace-prize-winner/.

The White Helmets, a volunteer civil defense organization that currently operates in parts of rebel-controlled Syria, are once again amongst the favorites as they still wake up every day to save the lives others are trying so hard to take. These volunteer rescue workers have saved 85,228 lives in Syria, though they are every day under the constant attack.

As for the world leaders, Angela Merkel is again ranked high, while Nobel Peace Prize could posthumously be awarded to Jo Cox who, among the others things, supported the White Helmets in the last years of her life. Raif Badawi, a Saudi writer, dissident and activist, as well as the creator of the website Free Saudi Liberals, is also amongst the favorites.

Above named are among the six ranked highest at the this year Nobel Peace Prize Fairlay market, but option ‘Other’ could once again be popular as some think that persons like Amal Clooney, Sadiq Khan, or Michelle Obama could win it.  So, who is your favorite, and who will get us plenty of different reactions after the announcement is made in October?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 06, 2017, 12:48:35 PM
First round vote for the next French President: Who will win it and how many vote % will Marine Le Pen have?

Market for the next French President is one of the most popular ever at Fairlay, and it will be decided quite soon as the first round is scheduled for April 23, with the potential runoff at May 7. And though there were many changes at first, in the last couple of months Emmanuel Macron is keeping lead over Marine Le Pen, with Francoise Fillon staying behind.

Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.


And though Macron is the favorite to win the runoff, could he win the most votes in the First round as well? This week, a Le Monde/Cevipof opinion poll said that centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right rival Marine Le Pen are tied on 25 percent of the first-round election vote. So, it is a tight race and you can use that at Fairlay.

Next French President: First round winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-first-round-winner/.


Thus, at Fairay, Marine Le Pen is still given slightly bigger chance to win the first round but even if she wins it, with how many vote % will she win it? At the moment, 20% to 30% looks like a sure bet, but a lot of people think polls could once again be wrong. Could she go above 30%, or even 40%, or disappoint by staying above 20%? Well, make your opinion.

Marine Le Pen 1st round vote %
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/marine-le-pen-1st-round-vote/.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: Xester on April 06, 2017, 01:33:24 PM
First round vote for the next French President: Who will win it and how many vote % will Marine Le Pen have?

Market for the next French President is one of the most popular ever at Fairlay, and it will be decided quite soon as the first round is scheduled for April 23, with the potential runoff at May 7. And though there were many changes at first, in the last couple of months Emmanuel Macron is keeping lead over Marine Le Pen, with Francoise Fillon staying behind.

Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/.


And though Macron is the favorite to win the runoff, could he win the most votes in the First round as well? This week, a Le Monde/Cevipof opinion poll said that centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right rival Marine Le Pen are tied on 25 percent of the first-round election vote. So, it is a tight race and you can use that at Fairlay.

Next French President: First round winner
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-first-round-winner/.


Thus, at Fairay, Marine Le Pen is still given slightly bigger chance to win the first round but even if she wins it, with how many vote % will she win it? At the moment, 20% to 30% looks like a sure bet, but a lot of people think polls could once again be wrong. Could she go above 30%, or even 40%, or disappoint by staying above 20%? Well, make your opinion.

Marine Le Pen 1st round vote %
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/marine-le-pen-1st-round-vote/.


Well we hope that the prediction on fairlay can actually occur and the Marine Le Pen can actually win the election so that new changes in France can occur. Aside from that if she win the election the price of LEPEN coins that is named based on her name will increase in value and many traders are already at watch on the election that would not only change the future of France but will also dictate the potential profit of the traders.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 10, 2017, 11:04:29 AM
TIME Person of the Year 2017: Angela Merkel, Theresa May, Emmanuel Macron, Narendra Modi, or someone else?

There was plenty of negative comments in December, when Donald Trump was announced ‘TIME Person of the Year 2016’ as many once again forgot that TIME Magazine gives this annual award to whichever person, group, idea or object that “for better or for worse...has done the most to influence the events of the year”. So, who could win it this year?

Angela Merkel won it in 2015, but she is still the No. 1 favorite to win it again as she could be re-elected Chancellor of Germany at the end of September. However, Martin Schulz could defeat her in September, so it is not a surprise to see him amongst the favorites as well. By stopping Merkel, he would surely took all the media focus at the end of the year.

http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/2000_1000/584894441800002d00e4177f.jpeg?cache=845rkhmo4q

TIME Person of the Year 2017
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/time-person-of-the-year-2017/.


Before that, a lot will be decided in the next weeks as we face French Election. Emmanuel Macron is leading the polls (and Fairlay market (https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-2/)), with Marine Le Pen still in the race. Being the favorite for the next French President, Macron is given rather big chances to become TIME Person of the year as well, behind Theresa May who is already leading the UK.

Ebola fighters won this award in 2014, The Protester in 2011, while this year The White Helmets lead the groups of people. Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, was amongst the 10 runners-up last year and is still ranked high this year, as well as Pope Francis who already won the award in 2013. So, who will win it this year? Well, predict at Fairlay (https://fairlay.com/market/time-person-of-the-year-2017/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 13, 2017, 04:47:07 PM
AlphaGo vs. Ke Jie is scheduled for May: Does Chinese No.1 Go master player has any chances against Google’s AI?

After a lot of speculation in the recent months, it’s been confirmed lately that DeepMind’s AlphaGo will takes on world’s top Go player Ke Jie in China in a three-game match starting May 23. It will be AlpaGo’s second official match after in march last year it took on and defeated one of the world’s top Go players, Lee Sedol. So, can Ke Jie do any better?

Well, hardly. In fact, back in January AlphaGo secretly (like an unknown player called ‘Master’) played 60 online matches against some of the world's best players, including Ke Jie who was defeated three times, and didn't lose a single one.  Still, after those losses Ke Jie hasn’t given up hope, claiming that he still has ‘one last move’ to defeat AlphaGo.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/4153768/images/o-ALPHAGO-facebook.jpg

Will AlphaGo beat Ke Jie in the three-game match planned for May 2017?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-alphago-beat-ke-jie-in-the-three-game-match-planned-for-may-2017-1/.


Now, that ‘one last move’ for 19-year-old Ke Jie will be three matches on the 23rd, 25th and 27th of May. Though, after his first two losses to ‘Master’ in recent days, he acknowledged that humans are no match for AI in this game.  It was change in opinion after Ke had been confident that AlphaGo could not beat him after the AI’s March victory over Sedol.

What is even worse for Ke Jie is that he will not play against AlpaGo’s version that defeated Sedol. In fact, the AlphaGo that played against Lee Sedol was v18. The Master that achieved 60-0 was v25. And it was already noted that it will be the newest version playing against Ke Jie in May. He will have a really hard job, so do you give him any chances to win (https://fairlay.com/market/will-alphago-beat-ke-jie-in-the-three-game-match-planned-for-may-2017-1/)?


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 18, 2017, 01:30:41 PM
Theresa May caught us by surprise as today she called for snap elections on June 8, so who will win Majority?

Britain's Theresa May on Tuesday called for snap elections on June 8, catching the country by surprise in a bid to bolster her position before tough talks on leaving the European Union. So, will he manage to do that in the following months?

As AFP notes, despite repeatedly rejecting calls from within her Conservative party for an early vote, May has now decided to take advantage of her commanding lead over the main opposition Labour Party in opinion polls.

That margin in opinion polls reached even 20 points in the latest polls, so there are huge chances that the UK will have Conservative Majority after potential June 8 election. Second option in Fairlay market is No Overall Majority at all.

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/4510242/images/o-THERESA-MAY-facebook.jpg

UK General Election Majority
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/uk-general-election-majority/.

By the way, British election dates are enshrined in law and can be changed only by a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons. Theresa May said she would ask parliament on Wednesday to decide on bringing this forward to June 8.

As the main opposition Labour party said it would back it, the UK will likely have these snap elections. But Labour Majority is not likely, but if you think that anything but Conservative Majority can happen you have great odds at Fairlay.


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on April 24, 2017, 11:13:00 AM
Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will face in the runoff at French presidential election: Who will prevail?

The first round of voting in the French presidential election on Sunday saw centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron and far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen make it through to the second round runoff scheduled for May 7. Yesterday, Macron took 8.4m votes (23.75%), while Le Pen took 7.6m (21.53%) – the highest ever score for the Front National.

Still, Le Pen is not given plenty of chances to become the next French President as this morning opinion polls have Macron beating her in the second round by 61% to 39%. At the same time, Fairlay market gives Macron a 87% chance (https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-5/).

http://i.huffpost.com/gen/5257910/images/o-LE-PEN-MACRON-facebook.jpg

Next French President
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-5/.


While Le Pen has no natural alliances with other parties, so she only issued a call for all patriots to join her, Francois Fillon, who came third, had said he would vote for Emmanuel Macron. The socialist candidate, Benoit Hamon, did the same, closely followed by the prime minister, the socialist Bernard Cazeneuve. So, it looks like Macron is in for the win.

But can Le Pen, who wants to leave the euro, return to the franc, exit the Schengen agreement and close French borders, once again defeated polls like Trump and Brexit did? If you have that opinion, use the great odds at Fairlay (https://fairlay.com/market/next-french-president-5/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on May 29, 2017, 12:56:28 PM
Bitfinex Hack is almost a distant memory, but could another Bitcoin Exchange mess up before 2018?

For those who had no funds there, Bitfinex Hack that happened at the start of August last year is almost a distant memory. But for those who had funds there, fear of another exchange hack and funds loss will always be on their minds.

Just to remember that Bitfinex was shut down last August after 119,756 bitcoins, worth more than $65 million based on exchange rates at the time, were stolen from users' accounts. A lot was solved later on, but could another hack happen?

http://vietcetera.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/BTM.jpg

Bitcoin exchange to mess up before 2018
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-exchange-to-mess-up-before-2018/.


In fact, it did as South Korean bitcoin exchange Yapizon was hacked a month ago, losing more than $5 million worth of user funds as approximately 37% of user funds were hacked and exactly 3,816 bitcoins were stolen from the exchange.

Yapizon is not among the exchanges with the high trading volume, but could some of those biggest players lose at least 200 BTC during this year? Or, could some of them even go bankrupt? Well, predict this at the newest Fairlay market (https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-exchange-to-mess-up-before-2018/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: FairlayBTCPredictions on June 14, 2017, 04:20:49 PM
The #Flippening: Will Ethereum overtake market capitalization of Bitcoin before August?

There’s been so many Bitcoin’s governance problems recently, that the Flippening is not anymore some distant paradigm shift but the thing that could happen in the following months if the total USD market capitalization of Ethereum overtakes market capitalization of Bitcoin. But, is it possible for the Flippening to happen before August?

With this, for the first time since 2009, when Bitcoin was unleashed on the world, its dominance of the cryptocurrency market has been challenged. And that challenge is huge as Ethereum's Ether token has increased 3,000% this year with no signs of slowing. At the same time, Ether's market cap has been drawing steadily close to Bitcoin's market cap.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DCSdwE5XoAASeRd.jpg:large

Will the Flippening happen before August 1?
Predict at Fairlay: https://fairlay.com/market/will-the-flippening-happen-before-august-1/.


So, at the moment two cryptocurrencies worth $34bn (ETH) and $42bn (BTC) but that could easily change with the ongoing scaling dilemma among developers and entrepreneurs building on Bitcoin, while at the same time Ethereum has a strong network effect and ability to negate the similar governance issues. Indeed, Ethereum looks strong now.

All in all, it looks like that at the moment it is only a matter of time when will ETH surpass BTC in the market cap, and then follow by attacking Bitcoin’s price. Newest Fairlay market gives August 1 as a date before which the Flippening could happen (https://fairlay.com/market/will-the-flippening-happen-before-august-1/), hoping that Bitcoin community could stop it with the SegWit2x proposal that Fairlay also supports (https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/6h4n1b/segwit2x_endorsement/).


Title: Re: Prediction Markets on Fairlay
Post by: Rodriguez91 on September 28, 2017, 03:08:41 PM
Fairlay has been around since 2013 in beta form and it continues like that. Although this can be frustrating to some, it is not a ‘no-no’ and therefore a Fairlay review is necessary. There are definitely advantages and disadvantages in using Fairlay as your preferred Bitcoin prediction market.
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