Bitcoin Forum

Welcome to my rally analysis thread :)

I said a while ago, if we go through the upper line of the yearly channel we have a chance for a real rally and then its time to get excited and analyze the new situation.

So let's go...

What happened before?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BJvTz2Ha/

What now? The "fomo" channel was not sustainable. We are looking for a new support line.

I expect one of this:

360: part of the yearly channel, already tested, triangle is forming on it right now. could be already the low.
340: yearly channel, heavy support expected
320: we already tested this few days ago, I dont think we can fall below it.

I expect 360 was already the lowest and we go up again from here but 340 could happen, 320 is very unlikely.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qijlb928/


next posts to come:
- possible long term patterns
- gold-bitcoin anti-correlation / correlation
- why is bitcoin demand increasing
- good and bad news comparison



disclaimer: I am not an expert in ta. I hold bitcoin and am long term bullish.

Thanks for the insight! Great to have another analysis thread to follow  :)

Keep writing OP , it'll be a rally to the ATH  ;D

thanks :)

some more bullish indicators:

today the 365 day moving average changed to increasing. the 50d ma crossed 365d ma after the golden cross.
200ma is on its way up to 365ma for another cross.



https://www.tradingview.com/x/5gtYl2h1/

We're going up and that is what it is. This was a great sell off point, only to make a moon easily in our near future.
http://i64.tinypic.com/14v5x00.png

China gives very few fucks about first sell off (LTC)

http://i66.tinypic.com/2nhmbt5.png

Are you talking about the medium trend of the price? Is it better to apply the year line to longer period, such as 5 year graph?

Let's sum up something:
we were at 236$ on October 5th and then an upward movement started. A slow but steady one.
We reached 300$ on October 23rd and that is where "big" players started playing. And then...well you all know we had a pump up to 500$
Then we reached the bottom of 351$ during the recent dump and now we're battling to reach 400$ again.
My question is whether we are going to hit 400$ soon or not. Or we will be going up and down in the range between 350/400$

I think we'll hit $400 in a few hours. Hopefully it'll creap up slowly then on.

correction looks healthy and very similar to the last one.
10d ma holds since end of september, could be important for the next wave.

my guess we will go to the upper bb again 420+

https://www.tradingview.com/x/98yFqCsq/

Hi op and other fellas. This thread is giving away lots of good info.
From what I see any attempt of going beyond 390 on finex failed. If we break that then we can go where koryu said.

Fibonacci levels show a channel from $350 to $390 with strong overhead resistance at $430 on Bitstamp:

https://bitcoinnewsmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/combined.png

yes, I also follow this on the 4h chart

https://i.imgur.com/9mPRLh1.png

but I am very careful with intraday trades. It often looks like "next hours are critical" and then it goes sideways and we find a new line to follow.

Thats why i mainly watch the 1day chart and I am confident that we will have a green candle today :)


/e: also take a look at the comment section of this post, he is commenting the 4 hour chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/nDZkBPjT-BTCCNY-Bullish-above-2210-aiming-for-8818-35/

"I expect 360 was already the lowest and we go up again from here but 340 could happen, 320 is very unlikely. "

This is a solid point. I will buy back around 340/345. Long term bullish offcourse.

You might have to wait a long time for <350

It's looking like 400 will be tested again tonight, I expect to wake up to 420.

No good signs yet. Always moving around 380$ and still a lot of spread between China exchanges and ours. This is quite strange  to be seen

As announced this is my view of good and bad news comparison and also why I am long term bullish. This is my personal view/opinion. Although I believe that bitcoin will succeed I would never invest more as I can afford to lose. Especially not in times of high volatility.


Good and bad news comparison - Analysing Bitcoin

Positive:

Funds
When I read it I thought: It's happening. 2015-09-15 ARK Invest becomes first public fund manager to invest in bitcoin (http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ark-invest-becomes-first-public-fund-manager-to-invest-in-bitcoin-300143030.html)
The first fund to invest is WEB X.0 ETF (ARKW) (http://ark-funds.com/arkw). When the news came out I checked their holdings: 0.8% of the fund was invested in GBTC. Til today they increased their position to 1.33%. Source (http://ark-funds.com/wp-content/fundsiteliterature/holdings/ARK_WEB_X.0_ETF_ARKW_HOLDINGS_HOLDINGS.pdf)
When more Funds start to invest in bitcoin this will be huge.

Regulated Exchanges (Geminit, Itbit, ..) and ETFs
GBTC and XBT Provider offer investors a new way to invest in bitcoin. Regulated exchanges like gemini or itbit are required for institutional investor after the mtgox mess.

First Sidechain Released and the Lightning network
The first sidechain was released in october. 2015-10-13 Blockstream releases sidechain called liquid (http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/10/13/bitbeat-blockstream-releases-first-so-called-sidechain-liquid/)
Sidechains add new features to bitcoin. For example the Lightning network could solve the scalability problem using payment channels.

Bitcoin Scaling Workshop
There are different attempts to solve scalability and it somehow splitted the community. There are different opinions, how bitcoin could scale. To solve this, it's the best way to bring people together, listen and understand the ideas of each other to find the best solution. Then implement it.   
Therefore two workshops are organized:
Scalingbitcoin.org (https://scalingbitcoin.org/)
Montreal, Canada: September 12th-13th, 2015
Hong Kong, SAR, China: December 6th-7th, 2015

Halving
The blockreward will be reduced from 25 to 12.5 in end of Juli 2016. There will be less new coins.

Bitcoin Venture Capital
Check the list (http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/). Why do they invest in bitcoin related companies? Most likely because they believe the bitcoin project will be successful.

Banks
Banks start to rethink about bitcoin and blockchain. Blockchain is a hot topic right now and banks research it (https://www.coingecko.com/buzz/16-banks-experimenting-with-blockchain-technology).

Here is an interesting article by Deutsche Bank: Blockchain – attack is probably the best form of defence (http://dbresearch.de/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&document=PROD0000000000359046&rwdspl=2)


Several banks currently research "the blockchain technology". They dont like to use the word bitcoin. But there is only one global decentralized blockchain: bitcoin (and altcoins most of them are forks of bitcoin)
They hope to build private blockchains to be able to control the network but this is not the idea behind bitcoin. With bitcoin you do not have a party to trust.

Gold Bitcoin - Anti-correlation
Somehow it looks like bitcoin and gold are anti-correlated since the beginning of 2015 (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-04/after-topping-500-bitcoin-again-plunging-extreme-volume)
Is money switching from gold to bitcoin? Or is there another reason? I am actually researching this topic.

Currency War, Competive Devaluation
This is a topic I am very interested in but it's also very difficult. I believe that we have a Currency War (Competive Devaluation) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_war).
I am from europe and euro has lost from 1.60 to 1.08$. There has also a devaluation of chinese yuan recently. USD is going up against euro and cny. But is it true? Or is the devaluation of usd just slower than the devaluation of euro and cny? Nobody wants to have a strong currency in a globalized world because your exports suffer from it.
My opinion is that bitcoin should anti-correlate to fiat currencies so bitcoin should go up when currencies devaluate.

Marketcap
The current marketcap of bitcoin (http://coinmarketcap.com/) is 5,690,845,896$. I think that bitcoin will either succeed or fail. If bitcoin succeeds then this market cap seems way to low.



Negative

MtGox Coins
There are 200,000 bitcoins from the MtGox which was shut down. They could and prolly will have a temporary influence on the bitcoin price.

Scaling
Scaling of bitcoin has not yet been solved. Some people say this is a critical issue, i think its a major issue. Do your own research.

It's too early
Bitcoin is still experimental (https://bitcoin.org/en/you-need-to-know). This is actually true. Everybody should be aware of this:

this is some wild speculation  ;D but to kill time as long we go sideways...

timetravel back to 2013?

https://i.imgur.com/203t9th.png

one coin four cups?

https://i.imgur.com/gyYZbBh.png

a beauty she is.

Laughing my ass off at all the "sudden" TA crap that comes out of the woodwork after a mysterious rally. Stupid random lines drawn on charts.  Seen this crap before, but where? Oh yeah that's right, I remember now.... two years ago.

You guys need to give it up, you always get proven wrong.  And then you mysteriously vanish when the market bottoms out and goes nowhere.

I don't find this rally mysterious at all.  :D

Bullish above this line:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mRSwrZfx/


Few days ago I loaded the historical prices of gold and bitcoin and created some charts.

Here is one, showing the performance of gold vs bitcoin in 2015:

https://i.imgur.com/G2Z5708.png

and one more:
https://i.imgur.com/YvENiLv.png (https://i.imgur.com/YvENiLv.png)
large image (https://i.imgur.com/YvENiLv.png)

Keep those charts coming! They are awesome to look at and explain very well why the price returned to a normal lower level.

Everybody should have expected the price to collapse again, especially after rising by 100 usd in a day.

ty :)

chart looks bit less bullish today morning, if 4hour candle closes below 369 on stamp...  

we need to restart the engine for the next wave today or we lose steam

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MOSnjBQi/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PNwqT6i0/

That sharp spike clearly had a lot to do with lots of short positions getting squeezed.

You can see on BFXdata.com, that finex short positions soared as Bitcoin went above $330, and crashed as Bitcoin kept reaching higher and higher. The short positions crashing aka, buying Bitcoin to cover themselves and leave the market, would have sent Bitcoin inexplicably high.....

.....But currently trading at $370, that is just $40 above the previous $330 break out zone, although I suspect that the market is probably a bit out of steam in both directions at the moment. Bears are screaming down, Bulls are screaming up. I think the reality is that Bitcoin farts along sideyways for a while, with perhaps a little more bias towards testing $350, than $380.

Great Charts!

yep 500 was pretty sure short squeeze.

chart looks pretty nice now, we maybe found the support line, which was tested twice with low volume.
At least it was a nice opportunity to go long @365 with stop loss 355, 3% risk (stamp numbers). bears need more ammo to kill the new longs.

we are going sideways way longer than expected. I was bullish all the way up since 200. But for now price is in control of arbitrage and short-term traders. We had a lot of good news and I expected we would go at least to 600 in this run. I am not so sure anymore tbh. Seems like new money is too scared to buy in after the race to 500. Still holding my coins but watch carefully.

Most interesting thing happening is that the premium between exchanges is decreasing. It looks like some people take advantage of arbitrage trading mainly between btc-e and okcoin. Also ltc arbitrage is in the house, ltc longs on okcoin got killed in a sick move. this should scare the shit out of short term traders.

whales in control

https://www.tradingview.com/x/x37mnK65/

That is really good news for those who are still holding their coins i am also expecting $600 will be achievable with this next bubble so when can expect $1000 or even more than before end of this year is that possible?

nobody can say that for sure.
But the next events to watch are the second scaling workshop (Dec 6th-7th 2015) and halving in Juli 2016.
since the last workshop price is constantly rising, so if there is progress in solving scalability that could have a huge influence on price.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YkUaULcb/

small update about recent movement from china.  

moving averages are my favorite indicators right now:

after 10ma crossed we have gone down as expected. 50ma has been the support during the correction.
after the cross of 200ma and 365ma the buying started pushing the daily candle above the 10ma which has been a buy signal before and leaded to more buying.
yesterday's candle was way above the bollinger bands on the 4 hour chart which was not sustainable and the correction was inevitable.


https://i.imgur.com/TRmfMvd.png


from yesterday:
https://i.imgur.com/Z684lX1.png

Hi Koryu

You are welcome to drop some of your charts and analysis/expectations on https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.new#new whenever

hey koryu, at least now we know on thing: if China moves BTC shakes for the good or the bad. I don't clearly see if we're on another big pump again but that was big spike yesterday.

Hey,
thx I will do :-) already did a few times



yep China is a big player, but there are also many foreigners on chinese exchanges who want to trade without fees.
I think that this time the move started from china because the 200ma crossed the 365ma on chinese exchanges first, on bitstamp it will cross tomorrow.

for short term predictions I am watching fibu levels, next resistance should be around 385$, also watching the 4hour bollinger bands to see when its overbought. no long term predictions from my side here.
just hold or trade some waves when its overbought

385 target reached but the new weekly candle looks like limited upside or rollercoaster when above 385

https://i.imgur.com/BdRUvKq.png

 
while orderbooks on western exchanges start to look less bullish, btcchina bidsum is growing...
the premium between china and us is 10$, chinese fear another devaluation of cny?

https://i.imgur.com/o4EhVjC.png

another test of 50ma possible, if it didnt hold, resistance is most likely found at 2000cny and 1800cny
outbreak of upper line (2500 cny) could target 4000cny

yellow line = 50ma
https://i.imgur.com/vYbECJr.png

chart looks pretty similar like during the last scaling workshop and would also fit in the triangle.

anyway most important will be the result of the workshop: how bitcoin can scale for mass adoption? What is the best solution?

https://i.imgur.com/HyvrWUE.png

this has gone up quicker as expected.

okcoin has formed a channel up on the 4h

https://i.imgur.com/hQlySIT.png

it seems like we are back in rally mode, daily sma30 switched to increasing. correction could not bring us below sma10.
new weekly candle starts very healthy. 4hour candles with upside potential, old 385 target looks like support now.

420 is my new target within this weeks or already within next days.


/e
should breaking out up here
https://i.imgur.com/I2i8ouV.png

How is gold moving?

perhaps a gold chart in BTC prices?

thanx

Watching

posted this chart a while ago but on other forum. log chart gold btc formed a triangle with a bullish break out for btc. but pretty similar as btc/fiat

https://i.imgur.com/vU6DhHO.png

To follow the gold btc ratio I finally found a site I can suggest:  http://www.teletrader.com/gold-bitcoin/currencies/chart/tts-78355171?ts=1448528280668 (http://www.teletrader.com/gold-bitcoin/currencies/chart/tts-78355171?ts=1448528280668)

https://i.imgur.com/uRVy2K9.png

420 target reached. but the triangle was very scary, bears nearly got me selling.

careful now, dont get trapped by fomo.

Strong resistance at $430?  OK, I want to see if we bust through that in the next day or so.  OP, you sound sincere but technical analysis is all palm-reading and voodoo.  There's no techie that can tell me how far into the future he can see, and if you look at the list of the richest people in the world...none of them are quants.

I dont know yet. At least I am not confident enough to post any prediction in public.
But 4h looks like limited upside so I guess another spike up would not be sustainable.

About TA, some indicators work good for bitcoin. But nobody can predict what exactly will happen, like yesterday when the volume disappeared on huobi and okcoin at the same time. Also news can pop up unexepected... but ta can help you to find an entry point for trading, increasing your odds to be on the right side before the next move.

Watching, if you don't mind.

welcome :)


https://i.imgur.com/U9vnSxF.png

waiting for the 4h stochrsi to cross (on chinese exchanges). When crossing looking for a matching support and trend line.

I guess we will have to test the new trendline to confirm it. With the last wave momentum increased, so if we dont test the new trendline we will have another momentum increase and that would be insane, daily is not ready for a move up higher than 2900cny.

so still looking for consolidation over the next hours.


/edit possible long term patterns

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GiXPo85o/


giant triangle vs consolidation triangle vs channel vs increased momentum within channel

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kLFs4xeE/

this was a sick move :)

after the spikes it often goes sideways or slowly down til price hit the ma10. could happen here again.

when falling below ma10, keeping an eye on ema50 and ma50 for possible rebound trade. But as long as we are above ma10 everthing is fine.


/edit

could be a possible channel on 4hour

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rgsBb3s6/

one last post from me before I will take a little break from posting so much. Actually spend to much time with this stuff...

But for the big picture over the next weeks and maybe months keep these retracements levels in mind (silkroad event to ath on chinese exchanges), it may be helpful. I did best with using the huobi chart because lines usually fit perfect.

https://i.imgur.com/NcKpg1p.png

Great raise in volume lately. So it is going up strong again? I hope yes as I got caught with some higher buying  :(