Bitcoin Forum

This is really just my speculation - but we are in speculation area so I will be happy if somebody post his findings as well.

The idea:
1 Satoshi is currently 0.00000001 BTC which is literally nothing in USD.

But try to multiply the 0.00000001 by 1 000 000 and you get to decent accounting number of 0.01 (https://www.google.com/search?q=0.00000001*1000000) which is 1 Cent.

Well we will not get to 1M USD per 1 BTC tomorrow (if ever) but I think it's safe to assume that by the time we get there nobody will care about 0.01 USD so it could be technically more than 1 M USD.

Also as far as I know it's not big deal to make Bitcoin divisible even further as long as there is consensus among developers and miners. But the original design 0.01 USD = 1 Satoshi I think is quite obvious and makes sense. While I don't consider myself anywhere near the mind that designed the original protocol I think even back then when Satoshi designed it I think this number came to Satoshi's mind.

What do you think?

I think that have no connection like the ones made from you. I am not sure about what I will write following because I am not a developer or programmer but I have seen even more zero in various sites when was written about amounts in bitcoin. I don't know if technically this can be possible or it is only an initiative of one or more sites but if yes that mean that the actual division of bitcoin is only a causality. But if even this thing mentioned by me is not possible I don't thing that Satoshi have such things in mind when invented bitcoin. He must have a brilliant brain but to imagine that 1 bitcoin one day must be equal with 1M us dollar and build its invention with this thing in mind seems very futuristic to me. Then why compared to us dollar? Bitcoin will have its value compared to every currency of the world. Or because us dollar is the main currency used in the world (leaving apart the national currency)? Mus be even this one reason. But, as for me, Satoshi when invented bitcoin has not in mind such kind of things. Bitcoin in itself is a big invention and the first of its era. As such needed to much mental exhaustion. This make almost impossible to think even such things like those written in the main post.

yes this was the idea behind it. if this will happen is another thing.

he was also so smart using a number that can be stored within a 64-bit integer and also in double-precision floating-point format. so you can choose whatever your programming language prefer.

I dont know why people neglect the fact that there is an equal chance for bitcoin to collapse and as well reach 1 million.
This speculation is just terrible and also childish.....i would say it is next to impossible for bitcoin to reach 10k $ in this century.

The money has to come from somewhere in order to make Bitcoin reach $1 million in the very far future. It might happen if a billionaire group or entity buys nearly all coins in existance and make the price go up to insane numbers throughout the years. If they buy up nearlly all the coins, they don't have to worry about dumps. It's basically like stocks from the largest companies. We as normal people trade stocks in order to earn some crumbs, while the elite has the wealth to make or break the stocks from giga companies. As soon as they hold the far majority of the stocks/coins they will feel comfortable bringing things to insane price levels.

This is plain bs. BTC was invented as a trade currency online... The rate is determined, like any assest/curency, by supply and demand.

Care to explain why you think it's terrible and childish? I like opposition but saying that without any argument has very little value.

Actually 10K can happen in this decade not very likely, also not sustainable but it can happen in a bubble. But I agree, 1 million is a bit different and much harder to achieve :).

you failed to analyze the supply and demand factor.

Keep on dreaming though

Indeed, the dynamic range of bitcoin was designed to be able to cover all possible values.  The highest possible value for a bitcoin is in the 1 million dollar range, simply because then the market cap of bitcoin reaches the 20 trillion dollar equivalent, which is, up to a factor 2 or 3, the total amount of M2 money in the world.

In other words, if bitcoin replaces all the M2 money everywhere in the world, and for the rest, the velocity of money is comparable to what it is now, then a bitcoin will be worth what is now a few million dollars.  (of course, at that moment, a few million dollars won't even buy you a bread, because the dollar has collapsed and is replaced by bitcoin)

You can hardly expect bitcoin to be more worth than all the money in the world.  So this is a fair upper limit of the value of a bitcoin.

This is why it was relatively wise to put 8 decimals after the comma, so that the smallest unit (the Satoshi) is then a small amount of money (worth what is now one cent).

So yes, the reasonable upper limit of value of bitcoin is what is now a few million dollars.

better stop thinking. satoshi had no clue of whether bitcoin would get a success or not. it was designed to serve a certain group of people who were waiting for changes.

Bitcoin can easily hit $10,000, and it could happen as close as a timespan of 1-4 years.  As soon as block halving occurs in 8 months, you'll have 4% inflation and 78% of coins mined.  If emission halves and demand increases from people recognizing it as a store of value, instead of something like a doubling in price, you can get a 4x from that alone, back over ATH already.  Then the same thing will probably occur with the halving after that.

So yea, with these kind of conservative success estimates, it could be stable around $6000 by 2019-2020, reaching $10k in a bubble.  Most people use more expoential adoption models for Bitcoin though, and depending on how many fiat currencies implode between now and then, those numbers could be passed pretty quick.

That makes nice reading, even 5k per bitcoin would make me a very happy man.

The fact that the numerical dynamics for bitcoin can be adapted to "replacing all the money in the world" has no relationship to the probability that that will happen of course.  It is just that the dynamic range of bitcoin is of exactly the right size to do so, and to keep as smallest denomination something of the kind of the smallest actual monetary denomination in dollar (a few cent).

The main problem with bitcoin at that point wouldn't be the scale of the smallest denomination, but the huge amount of transactions and the mindboggling size of the blockchain.

Well I didn't mean to analyze it I was just thinking "practical" if that was the idea behind 8 decimals.

why better stop thinking? Whatever the motive was I'm happy he pulled it off and I can be part of it.

considering the next halving is around corner and if the past performance has any relation with the future (those whole don't like TA say it doesn't) I see to happen 10k by the end of the year 2016. If there is not at least high 4 digits by the end of the 2016 I'd have doubts whether the Bitcoin is actually growing and ever will be a success.

Well what now seems as mindboggling will be "nothing" by the time it will go to that level - I don't mean that we will be at 1 M USD per BTC anywhere earlier than year 2030 (if it survives), and if in past 10 years the price of RAM dropped per gigabyte 50x, maybe it's fair to say that for the same amount as we pay today we will get in next 10 years 50x more RAM, so who wants 50 GB of RAM for 5 USD?

http://www.statisticbrain.com/average-historic-price-of-ram/

I also did some research and I came to conclusion that worldwide internet speed doubles every 3 years (I mean including households) as it's heavily regulated it's sort of slower than the Moores law of double per every 18 months. so in 9 years we will have 4x faster than we have today. Look at dedicated server offers - around year 2000 everybody offered like 10Mb line, in 2008 was the usual like 100Mb line now we are moving to the 1 Gb area and so on - I wouldn't be surprised if in next 10 years the "normal" would be 10 Gbit interface on cheap ~ 100 USD per month server.

why not 100M then? by your logic, with this you have a better correspondence, because 1 satoshi would be worth 1 dollar, which is more "cool" by the look of the reason behind this thread...

same as usual, read this fucking spreadsheet !

https://i.imgur.com/kJLuBLT.png
backup : http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img907/1327/2NKTRm.png

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1119926.0

I've been told that a person who knows his/her area shouldn't be wrong by factor of 10 and to me 100M per 1 BTC doesn't look reasonable in my lifetime (unless I will be here like till I'm like 150 or so). But whenever somebody asked me where do I see the endgame in Bitcoin I said that ZERO or 1-10 M USD per BTC is not unreasonable.

For me the maths works like this - with each halving the volume of transactions should grow by at least tenfold to live up to its expectations and it did so far. So if we saw with last halving 1k USD per BTC I came to conclusion that in next halving it should be (even if briefly) 10k (the one in July 2016 or so) the one in 2020 should go to 100k and the next "close" one should be to 1M+ - basically before 2030.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

btw the Paypal is off: Market cap is now about 45 B and never was close to 100 B see this: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3APYPL
Visa has close to 200 B cap: https://www.google.com/finance?q=visa
MasterCard is about half (112B atm): https://www.google.com/finance?q=ma
AMEX 72 B: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:AXP
etc..

besides why should we compare market cap of these compare to the market cap of Bitcoin? How it does make any sense? I'm really curious - I just can't get there. Maybe I'm not so big financial brain but I simply can't get there.

As for the gold, cash and savings I think it's valid - coz Bitcoin is close enough to gold, cash and/or savings accounts.

Something tells me that Satoshi wasn't thinking at all about the possible dollar value of 1 bitcoin in the future. For him, this was just a huge experiment and I think that even today's state of Bitcoin can be called a huge success. Of course he has created it and he has let the community take Bitcoin wherever they want.

I also think that dollar value is a huge downside of Bitcoin at the moment of its growth and development, at its young age. Too many decisions are being made and have been influenced only by dollar signs in mind.

I think when you will think more btc price will reach 10 mln,100mln $.Central Banksarethinking like that producing more and more that what thay call money.Thay only think and think

I think at some point we will reach at least 1 million but likely about 10 million or more.

anything less is just not enough for bitcoin to be considered a serious currency on a gloabal level.

Because the market cap (times a velocity factor which is normally of the order of single digit) for a monetary asset determines its scope.  It wouldn't mean a lot to compare to the market cap of, say, Apple or so.  But it does mean a lot when compared to monetary market caps.

The upper limit of bitcoin's market cap is of course the world's M2 market cap.  There's simply not more money in the world (savings deposits, cash, bank accounts, ....).  Bitcoin can at most replace all monetary assets.  It can't replace production capital for instance.  It can't replace an airplane.   So that upper market cap brings bitcoin in the few million dollar of today range.
It would mean that there isn't any fiat money in the world any more.  It would mean that all fiat money in the world, on bank accounts, cash, on savings accounts has been replaced by bitcoin, and doesn't exist any more.  No more dollars, Yuan, Yen, Rubbles, Euros....  all of them replaced by bitcoin and no altcoin.  THEN, and ONLY THEN, a coin will be what is a few million dollars right now.


Indeed.  But you should realize that bitcoin can only take on their market cap if the asset under consideration has ITSELF lost its value.  So Bitcoin will replace gold's market cap when gold will have become worthless and you can exchange a kg of gold for a pizza.

Yes because you are expecting a 3000x increase on the current value , i dont see that happening unless the roth's invest 0.02 % of their wealth in bitcoin, just being positive is what i would say childish and it is.

But it is well-designed in the sense that the numerical dynamics of bitcoin corresponds exactly to the ratio of the world monetary market cap over the smallest reasonable unit of money (20 trillion over 0.01 = 2 x 10^15 which is exactly the bitcoin dynamics, that is the total number of Satoshis that will be created).  Call it a coincidence.


The point is that on the short term, the dollar has a higher price stability and has a better representation of market value than bitcoin itself.  You could express bitcoin in pizza or in Big Mac, and the variations you would see, would be pretty similar to those in dollar or Euro or ...

Agreed. Satoshi created it to get rid of dollars. It was never meant to be worth a million dollar.

One btc was meant to be one btc and you would buy stuff with btc. Start to lose the fiat feeling ;)

I think you shouldn't see the denomination in dollars as something specific to dollars, but just as a more reliable measure of market value.  As I said, you could just as well express the market value of bitcoin in Big Mac: how many Big Mac can you buy for a bitcoin ?

The main difficulty is that the answer to that is probably 0, because Mc Donalds doesn't accept bitcoin most of the time.  So using an intermediate asset that CAN buy Big Macs directly and for which the price of a Big Mac is relatively stable IS a relatively good way to measure the buying power (market value) of bitcoin  - it lacking actual direct buying power for most commodities most of the time.

You also measure the market value of gold or paper assets in dollar, Euro, Yuan, Yen, ... simply because these fiat monetary assets are directly usable to buy stuff, are relatively stable in the short term, and hence have a psychological representation of market value.

(a Big Mac has a relatively stable price in fiat money).

ah yeah but it may be possible, but what about from the 50 coins per block to the next reward, it go from 1 to 1k so 3 x 10 factors, which is different from what you are sustaining

we are at 300, so by this logic it can only go to 3k, then 30k and then 300k and not 1M, bitcoin works like god, in mysterious ways

obviously I didn't meant it it needs to go to 3000.00 and it can't be 2750.84 or so. I was looking at the ranges 1k range which for me means +/- 20 %, 10k range by which I mean again +/- 20 % around that value and so on. Let's keep the discussion positive and intelligent, yes we do not know each other personally but have some respect - I have the account here for some time already ;)