Bitcoin Forum

.

Has anybody analyzed my reserach, I`m curious what do people think about it and what are the effects of this on your thought about bitcoin price?

This is bogus.

I have created hundreds, if not over thousands, of accounts on the forum. I have made lots of bogus posts claiming various horse crap. It's all meaningLESS.

Yes, it's fun for me to see various reactions from idiots like the OP.

Ya. I noticed that. :D

Do you reckon this has some predictive merit? From graphing price vs new posts/topics, they obviously look strongly linked but the price seems to lead the posts, not the other way around. At least when it comes to big dramatic moves.

It's interesting that the price was much lower vs forum activity before the 2013 bubbles. Does that mean we are still very overvalued vs the size of the community, or does it just mean that this forum is far less of a hub than it used to be?

Isn't it more likely a higher price drives forum activity?

How is it bogus? You have the data in front of you.

Yes there are many accounts created, but I am counting the posts. And it doesnt matter if you post with your main or alt account, the post count increases.

Therefore you see the highest correlation between POST & PRICE.

I`m not sure if you can predict anything with this, except if you micro-analyze it and find some arbitrage opportunity.

However If somebody would create a volatility derivative of bitcoin, then this could be a precious prediction tool.


Nope, I see it differently.

I see value & price as 2 separate entities. The price of bitcoin swings due to mania and psychological factors & pump & dumps.

But the value of it has been going up since the beginning, and I think in 2015 the price had meet the value (price = value), after the Gox scam collapsed.

Since then the value has gone up, and now the price follows. (300$ now /bitcoin)


This is how I view it.

Hard to tell. Which one was first the chicken or the egg?

This is the same dilemma.

Interesting post. There is a correlation indeed in posting activity. Special in section "Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion".
Once I had an idea of reading the emotions in this section with a neural network.

Lol I dont think that would work because there is a lag between trader's perception and forum posters.

Not all people who post here trade, or have significant amounts to move price. And those that trade might not post here.


So traders might need 1-2 weeks or more to digest the info (not just on this board, but the news on coindesk,cointelegraph,etc... and other info) to make their decisions.


There is big lagg between info and trade, so I dont think a NN can do that much at the moment.

Hmm...from page 13630 the emotion changed in positive. And we know what happened. A trained "Bayesian probability" algo , like how a spam filter works, could be an indicator.  ;D

Probably this correlation is true in the opposite way :). When price start moving somewhere then a lot of ppl talking about that move they keep opening threads to discuss their opinion. Especially true when the price moving up. In such cases lots of new people used to come here to get information and possibly "investment" ideas.

I'm afraid prices are not moving to somewhere just because of we are talking that :).

Possible Theory: When the prices go up, the YoBit spammers go wild to try to earn some cash.
It could be a possibility. I'm sure, though, that when the prices rise, new threads and tons of (spam) posts start to flood the forum. Don't take it from me, though! Even if there are people who care little about threads, price does correlate to the number of posts.

However, the price should not be decided by the number of posts.

TL;DR: Sig spammers during high price try to earn more money

Man, RealBitcoin, I really appreciate the work and effort you put on NXT. But this thread and the work within is meaningless and therefore useless. As my man Snail2 told you, the obvious correlation is the other way around.

OK, I should have used the term overpriced. My apologies  :P

What I'm getting at is that if we look at your data, we can see that forum activity hasn't increased in line with the price vs before the $1200 bubble. To be fair it was even more out of whack during the bubble peak, but we're still behind on forum activity compared to price. It's not a small difference either. So what concerns me is that the community/buzz may not have grown in scale with the price, indicating a market cap that still hasn't fully settled after the bubble and therefore a high price vs 'value' ratio. Sure the value/useage has gone up steadily, but the price increased exponentially in a very short time, so has it been enough?

If anyone is really motivated they could survey as many bitcoin communities as possible to get a better idea on where we actually are in terms of userbase (and therefore base value), because it's likely that other sites are getting more % of users as time goes by.

But this forum doesnt make up all bitcoin. There are the vendors and the other websites where you can use bitcoin.

So that is why the correlation is not perfect, because there is more to bitcoin than just this forum.

There have to be correlation. Price of Bitcoin is dependent on popularity (demand and supply) The more people are interested in BTC supply grows - growing price and grows number of threads in the forum. For me it is completely normal.

There is no correlation between the forum action and the price. There are too many spam posts. The results will not be accurate.

And that doesnt influence the sentiment of the reader?


I i just wrote  " bitcoin is cool" , it may be a spam post, but it could make people think positively about bitcoin.

So all posts have influence.

If we forbid anybody posting more than 10 post a day, there could be forum activity correlation with the bitcoin price.

I definitely agree that the forum is much more active when price is uptrending.. I even notice it on myself. I'm also more active when I get excited about the price moving.

Would be smarter the other way around though, low price means easier to make bitcoins..