Bitcoin Forum

Ok i know there are already lots of thread about how btc is going to go 400 or 1000$ in next weeks, but most of the time it's just people coming saying "it will" or "it won't".

Well i'm not an economist so i won't say i know, but i wish this thread will be used for people with facts and arguments, not just opinions.

I firmly believe in a near btc price rise, because of the coming halving and the black friday trend (more than 1000$ last year) and i saw something strange on cex.io:
http://imgur.com/ot6uQDU

As you see the market depht is closing, a week before there was much more sell order than buy orders, now it's 830btc buy order vs 710 btc sell order.

It means more people want to buy than to sell, logically the prise will go up.

You DO know this is a "Speculation" forum???

Yes i know, but speculation doesn't mean you have to base yourself on nothing. Speculation can be made through logic and arguments, not just what "you felt while drinking your coffee and that big revelation you had while you slept"!  ::)

The price will just go up $10 and then go down $10. That's what we will see a lot more the comming weeks. As long as we can stay above $300 then we will surely see it go higher as the Bitcoin block halving is heading towards us.

It wont matter much, since CEX only has 0.31% ($ 101,239   ) of the market volume as per CoinMarketCap. It's too little to be significant. Of course, it's another story if you'd see the same trend in OkCoin, BitFinex, and BitStamp, which when combined has greater than a third of market volume.

 You see i absolutely didn't think about that. Which makes my argument rather useless indeed. Thanks for the precision!

Why should it raise on black friday? It would be more natural for it to go down since people want to buy stuff and stores accepting bitcoin don't accumulate but dump.

source?

It's already one year old but should give you the answer.
tldr: half of them go full fiat, 10% full bitcoin, remaining 40% take a mix.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/more-than-4400-bitpay-merchants-keep-bitcoins/ (https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/more-than-4400-bitpay-merchants-keep-bitcoins/)

If you are using cex.io to look at market depth, something is quite off. It is a minor exchange in bitcoin volume, so it has hardly an impact.

Look at stamp or the chinese exchanges and use those graphs, should give a much better view of how it is.

The number of buy orders vs sell orders is meaningless because traders who want to manipulate the market put up huge orders to try frightening everyone into buying or selling when it suits them. Those giant orders are frequently removed if the price gets close to them because they are fake orders that a manipulative trader doesn't intend to allow them to be executed.

Well the number of traders that put these numbers isn't always the same, the price can be pumped very fast if traders/big exchanges want to, maybe this weekend will be neutral no dump or pump.

Unfortunately, Bitcoin very often defies logic! So not to crush your analysis and reasoning, you can use all the logic of this world, but Bitcoin will still do its own thing and that will most often be what you haven't expected.

This summarizes all of my attempts to predict Bitcoin movements by using logic and analysis! :)

Actually you are right, just not correct in calculating overall price trend based on just cex. The thing is ; the support is rising on other exchanges like it is on cex, so
you were right. I'm just not too sure that there will be a wave, it looks far more like a small uptrend that will push price 10-15 usd up, nothing big. (for now)

It is short term, which don't means it can last and have a new bottom at a higher price.

Accross the exchanges there are no signals for a higher peak.

If only predicting trends was as easy as looking at market depth, then a lot of people will make money.
Alas, nothing can be concluded about causation for the small price increase that we have seen.

It might not be 100% sure stuff will happen, but it sure can be indicators of a price direction.

Closing gap may indeed support an increase, but it needs to be on all exchanges at the same time to have a great effect.

Black Friday s one off phenomenon, it ll push the price up but I dont think it ll keep the price at higher levels. BTC halving on the other hand, yes, this one ll push BTC price up. Cause there s no coming back once reward halves. BTC supply will be significantly diminished after that date. If demand, stays more-less the same, everybody knows what s gonna happen with the price.

If the market is efficient, the block reward halving should have been incorporated in the price by now.
We already are more than $100 up from where we were a couple of months back.

The OP is logically correct about the rates going up on the black friday.Since on black friday people online would want to shop using bitcoins, as you know there would be variety of merchants selling goods for cheap prices.Moreover they'll only accept bitcoins as the mode of payment(I'm speaking of btc accepting stores here).People would would like to cop these deals need btc's for which they have to buy them.This increases the demand for btc's as many users would like to keep them for the day and prices will generally go up as prices go up when there is a demand for product in the market.

BTC is a beast of it's own virtues. That is why it is spelt with a capital B.

Thanks a lot for all those informations, but personnally i don't understand a thing  :o

Wow! I didn't know it existed... But isn't it a bit strange? I mean what is the point? If you lend your coins for somebody else to trade, you're the one taking the risk (it's your coins they're betting) but you'll only get parts of the profit. So why going with that solution?

No one knows what the price will do over the next few weeks op, economists included.

The only exception are those with insider information. If I had $1bn that I was planning on buying bitcoin with tomorrow I would have a pretty good idea of what would happen to the price.

i also think that the price is going to go up around black friday, just like the time it went upto $1000. However i believe that hitting 1k this year mighe be tough, i was kinda expecting it to go upto around 500-600. and i think the reason the buy orders went up is cuz of black friday, people are stacking up on btc incase they find something on sale to buy lol.

The Bitcoin Black Friday tradition started as a way to entice new merchants to sign up with processors. When companies like NewEgg, Microsoft and Gyft started to accept bitcoin and promote deals, the press coverage drove price up until Black Friday. Price soared to record highs of $1,163.
The 5 weeks following November 29, 2013 still haunts early Bitcoiners. As consumers continued to spend bitcoins, price plunged almost 50% until Christmas Eve.


http://i68.tinypic.com/148kmbq.png


In 2015, we don’t expect a price plunge post Black Friday because consumers have options to shop on open marketplaces. Rational consumers will shop where they find the best value, so if open marketplaces can provide better value than Bitcoin selling merchants, we shouldn’t expect another price plunge. On open marketplaces, merchants receive bitcoins instead of bank deposits drastically reducing sell pressure. Higher efficiency can then be translated to better value for both consumers and merchants.

the price is fluctuating a lot right now because of the black friday though im afraid that the price can go down a lot after a few days after this event i dont know if i should sell my btc

Price volatility in the next few days may allow you to earn good money in the coming days on the correctly chosen strategy. You only need to define an expected range of volatility.

I do not see volume increase so far. So the Black Friday is American effect. The American are still sleepin.

The price did not go down at all. It is just between $340 to $360. So there is not much effect of black friday.

And you may incur huge losses if there is a breakout in either direction.
Trading is always risky. Better to have a hold strategy, if you are a long-term bull.

When there is a wavering in price, everybody is speculating of it going even much higher. But none foresees the wavering in the first place  ::)

Maybe it will go to 500, but I think it will go down again based on previous experiences only.

it work like that, big manipultor increase the price --> waiting for average joe to enter, if they do not enter in the market, they will stop, you get the current type of pump

otherwise they will continue for the next wave of average joe, then, they dump at random and take the few coins of the average joe

this is certainly sure for small exchange with low volume

It was interesting to read what everyone on here said before black friday and what people have to say after.

It did go up a bit around black friday but not by much as many here suspected.

The Black Friday has little effect on the bitcoin price. The price is very stable recently.

Ha ha thanks op. I just commented last night that I wish more speculation topics had moremeat and not just it's going to crash or to the moon. With that said I think bitcoin will drop a little this week if Chinese markets stabilize Monday due to people moving there money back into the market.

I'm just hoping for bitcoin to continue to rise. I know that bitcoin eventually will come down a bit after it rises, but I hope it won't crash all the way down to nearing $100. Halving is coming up so I'm pretty excited about that as well. Let's just wait and see what 2016 has in store for bitcoin.

There is a waving coming, but i expect it to go down, instead of going up it is going down.

Too bad we will not see a 500 USD spike.

There is only a upward wave coming. We might see $500 by the end of this month or next month.

Hope you're saying right friend! But don't hope too much, It smells like it's going crazy upward those days :/

Price is more volatile these days and we are seeing alternative pump and dump every week. If there will be another pump like happened recently 500 mark is nothing to get passed.

The price is lower than $400 for some time. So there is no alternative pump and dump every week recently. But we will see.

Soon we can't expect. Recently only one day user got good value back. Suddenly it rose to 424$. who sold at that time got little profit, also the price
fall down suddenly to 390$ in a short time. these days it won't happen again

The timing of buying and selling is too difficult to find.  I seldom buy low and sell high. When I sell, the price will usually go higher.

When you sell and the price goes higher it means you are selling too early because you are affraid the price will go down again, or you just don't know much about the market.

I think the price will soon be really up. Particularly since it is almost chinese new year and that many people are going to use it.
He already goes even gradually up, so you never know.

I think the big wave is coming and the price will rise in few days. I'm shock to see that the price today is stable in 380-390 in few days the price will goes high. So before it happens just buy some bitcoins today and keep holding on it until the price reach again above $400.
I don't push you to believe me but i feel that the price will rise. We know that no one can't predict it very well and the sign of price increase is there that's why i feel it.. So just get ready to lose or make some profit with the price high..

The big wave is already beginning, but not up, but down.
Look close at the charts, after 500 the direction we went was down. My guess is this will prolong.

The price could fluctuate around $400 for a few weeks. Then it will go up, could be quite a lot due to the halving.

I think the price will consolidate in the $450 range for the next 5 weeks. Then it will rise to the $600 range.

Seems like we're a little bit stuck in the $430-$450 range, but we could break up or down at any time.  I think sentiment is pretty good lately, so I may start buying again when I get some money.  That's always the problem.

I would call that consolidation. So the price could be very high after long term consolidation. This happened last year.

During the consolidation phase, the pepole who made profit in the previous wave will take profit, so the average cost will rise.

Everything happens in a short time without any notification. Prepared plans not gonna give you profit, just trading needs to be made with the self prediction of price, as most times the price will be fluctuating.

so the price is not rising and there are no waves right now but i hope soon this will happen as the stable price is really boring

if there was a rise i would definitely make some decent money out of it as i have a bit less than one bitcoin, cant wait for the halving because of that

Enjoy the quiet as long as it's holds.There will be more than enough rides, ups and downs coming this year due to speculation, rumours, FUD and influence by media.The year is still pretty young and a lot of people will smile and cry until the end of it.

Yes. The price of bitcoin is very volatile. It will hinder its general adoption. When the price is more stable, many people will use it.

The more people use it, the higher price the bitcoin will be. And the price will also more stable in the future.

this is a part of the market and a very necessary part too, and it is the same in other money markets like USD-EUR but since those are so big, the swings are smaller too.

also bitcoin's big swings and volatility has been reducing for some time now and we don't see those big changes anymore.

There are a lot of people that is still waiting indeed for a good price increase and that they hope that they can earn some money with it, but that is quite risky.
Bitcoin is a currency and you never know what will happen with Bitcoin because it is always changing and that is the problem of Bitcoin, we all know that the having is coming indeed.

But we have to see and wait what will happen after the halving.

We do not know for sure if the halving will double the price. But the price will rise after the halving.

Halving is expected to double the price, at the same time there will be not much impact on price during the time of halving.

There will be a very big impact on the price during the halving. I think the price willl rise from $420 to $700.

The price is already $460 today. It might break the peak set in the last December very soon. So $800 could be price near halving.

If the price breaks 480 it will go to 500 that's final, however at best i do see the price go to 550/600 this year. Not much higher then that.

The price did not break 480, instead it dropped to $438. That could be good for the future price as it consoiidated.

The price is $460 again. Maybe Satoshi will not dump his  1 million coins soon. So people have more confidence.

The price has risen from $460 to $520, or 15% over the last 20 days. The important implication is that it has broken the recent trading range.

People say "it will" and "it won't" because this is the speculation board  :D

If you say that something "will" happen, then this belongs in the economics or even the bitcoin discussion board :)

The price rise is even higher in the Chinese exchanges. The price is around $620 in some exchanges.

it's just easier to say it like that

it's implied that it's speculation because it is on the speculation board.