Bitcoin Forum

web version: http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/bitcoin-blog/volatility-surging-as-bitcoin-climbs-to-475-on-spot-before-massive-20-correction (http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/bitcoin-blog/volatility-surging-as-bitcoin-climbs-to-475-on-spot-before-massive-20-correction)

http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/uploads/6/4/6/5/64656757/1141777_orig.png

Daily volatility (as calculated by BitMEX (http://bit.ly/1OUUsm1)'s BVOL24H index) surged to almost 10 in trading this weekend, which is a multi-week high. However, if we zoom out it starts to look not as impressive, as the move up is not nearly as high as the FOMO to $500 in early November:

http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/uploads/6/4/6/5/64656757/6798433_orig.png

This was due to a large move up that was fully corrected in a matter of hours:

http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/uploads/6/4/6/5/64656757/4197160_orig.png

So it's it's essentially a full retrace of that whole move up, which disappeared in a single 1-hour candle. Very impressive action here in bitcoin.

To get an idea of sentiment let's look at the Forward Curves in our new Futures Contract Spreads: http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/futures-contract-spreads.html  (http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/futures-contract-spreads.html)(courtesy of contributor Austerity_Sucks):

http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/uploads/6/4/6/5/64656757/8715628_orig.png

http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/uploads/6/4/6/5/64656757/1145832_orig.png

So OKCoin looks pretty neutral in sentiment, almost 1% in the weekly spread, 5% on the fresh new quarterly contracts released which are set to expire in end of March 2016.

Let's look at BitMEX forward curve now too:

http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/uploads/6/4/6/5/64656757/8818683_orig.png

http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/uploads/6/4/6/5/64656757/757291_orig.png

Healthy premiums across the board at BitMEX too, I would even say it's pretty bullish sentiment going into end of the weekend tomorrow.

Let's look at the bigger trend right now by taking a look at the 12-hour chart from Huobi:

http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/uploads/6/4/6/5/64656757/8646057_orig.png

In the bigger picture this is either a failed test of the 3300 CNY / $500 which has been badly rejected, or if you're more bullish, it's the first leg on a bigger move up where we can smash through $500.

One thing is sure though: the trend is still up, and sentiment is far from bearish, so there's plenty room to move in the right direction as volatility really starts to pick up steam.

I'm liking this volatility, but whether it's good for Bitcoin as a currency has yet to be seen.
When it drops again I'm definitely re-buying a couple of BTC to sell at the next peak :)

Great times ahead, I think...

I think that the main post has to many graphics but has lose the right interpretation. If we call volatility the trend of the price of bitcoin on the first 10 days of December then have no meaning to speak about this concept. The move within ten days cannot be called volatility even could be much more. Are only ten days. Have not any kind of importance in the price of bitcoin. There are to many other national legal currencies that are much more less stable in short periods like this. And must not be forgotten that are centralized as money. So have someone who cares about those. Who enter and act in market if see risk for that given money trying to stabilize it. Never happen to see such action for fluctuations within 10 or even 30 days. So have no meaning to speak about volatility for bitcoin for such short periods even if this currency would be centralized one. Not in the case when this coin is decentralized (no one care about that) and have any other factor which can affect and condition it except the market. Lets be more generous. Lets give to it some freedom. It's born free. Need that freedom. Lets make it a little happy now in order that it make us more than happy after.  ;)