Bitcoin Forum

Lets try to guess the number of beans in the jar.

In this thread we try to harness the wisdom of the crowd, the wisdom of the bitcointalk speculation forum.  A forum of wise speculateers.  So we are harnessing the combined speculative powers of the most speculative bunch of speculators there is.


use your powers of speculation to speculate the most speculative speculations

No one can know with complete certainty the right time when bitcoin will reach that price. Anyway we need to be very patient in order to wait all the necessary time to see the bitcoin reach the sky.

Wise words sig spammer.  And thank you for bumping the thread.

That month is called Nerverember.

My money is on October. Just like last halving, the shortened supply will have its major affect a few months after the halving.

September, sometime before the next halving

 My guess is it'll be a positive year overall and a solid one but devoid of insane fireworks. We'll go a fair bit higher perhaps but not approach the ath. Anyone reading this in the future is free to taunt me.

The Wisdom of Crowds won't work in this scenario, as it's missing a couple of elements:


Criteria                   Description

Diversity of opinion   Each person should have private information even if it's just an eccentric interpretation of the known                       facts.

Independence           People's opinions aren't determined by the opinions of those around them.

Decentralization           People are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge.

Aggregation           Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision.

If you think of "Who wants to be a millionaire", there's good reason that the audience get such a spectacularly high strike rate.  They don't have time to confer or see what other peoples opinions are.

i'm tempting to say before the halving but maybe it will be only a new stable price and the real ath will be after it at the end of the year, with then another dump to a new higher stable price

it will be divided in two round, the next pump i believe

IN the next decade maybe, price will rise, but not that much

It's hard to say this since nobody knows when bitcoin can go up or down.
We can only speculate and make guesses here.

I think it will happen during fall season.

Nobody knows for sure when this will happen but my guess will be before or after halving. I think that would be the time when there would become a lot more demand for bitcoin. But who knows right, it can happen today or tomorrow as well.

I think is difficult to say after all you never know what bitcoin can happen this year.
I think around the November or December like in year 2015.

June will be the month of new ATH, I think we will see a huge pump and then a big crash to $600 in the month of June...
And by saying this, I confirm I feel that ATH will be seen before halving...

Conventional wisdom says around a month after halving, but speculators might cause an ATH months before halving even arrives.

I find it quite interesting that so far no one thinks it will happen in august and september.  Whats wrong with those months? Why are they so unpopular?

I can't say for sure which month but it will be the month near when the halving is going to happen.

I'm going to vote for July, but nobody can know for sure though, we just have to wait and see what will happen.

I think we will see new high i don't like to say new ATH but it will be highest since 2015 may be near 1k before halving. That is on june this year.

early june

I think this would all depend on when halving is going to happen.

Nobody knows the answer to this which makes it hard to say

But we do all believe  that halving will happen sometime this year.

I voted for September but I don't think we will go any near the current ATH. Maybe a higher stable price where we can settle for a while. It's much fair to see a slow process o the price risig than seeig it rise rocketedly an then suddenly drop.

Good. It is exactly to try to guess the number of beans in the jar. No one can understand the why of the increase of price of bitcoin after the big increase of November. But is a fact. There was increase of real demand or only speculation? No one can know this. At least until this moment. The same will be even in every moment of the next year. Normally the big increase must be in July - August after the halving. This is my guess about the "number of beans" connected with bitcoin during this year. It is very easy to be told by everyone and don't need any kind of big reasoning to make this foreseen. Everyone can do this. So I am not telling nothing new. But how can do otherwise seeing in which way move the price of bitcoin?

Should be what year, we are not even close to it happening again

Previously $450 to $1200 took 1 or 2 weeks. So it could easily happen even right now.

You are right. I voted for the month February. I too strongly believe anything will happen in bitcoin very much surprisingly to take it into moon, but likely before halving itself. So, in this month or next month itself we can see some flying price for bitcoins.

I'm predicting october. BTW how do u vote on polls?  8)

It may be in the months of September-October 2016.
Critically, my power of speculation is
very weak but Ironically, my luck/
guesses is/are very strong.

Honestly i dont know when it start but I think it will reach new ATH on june 2016 after halving ends according to news out there..

But I believe with present financial market trends, it may happen in this January itself. Because the world stocks and currency markets are trading in red. So, investor may turn their heads towards bitcoin at any time. So, new money inflow may take bitcoin to moon at any time.

Bumbing for a hundred votes

Can you please link me to the place where you found this info???
Halving is itself going to take place in July 2016 as mentioned everywhere...
But yes, I do believe that we will see the new ATH before halving takes place...

It's a difficult question as the rise to $1000 will make a lot people sell as soon as we touch that price level. If we can resist this massive selloff, then I think it will either be October or November when we make a new attempt to reach a new ATH.

i will have you on this one but think that a month or two before halving we will see some major spikes in price but wont hold for long so i think that after halving we will see real major change in price

I don't see Bitcoin getting to a new All Time High in the next year.

 2 years, perhaps - but even that would take a continued meltdown of the Chineese economy (which looks possible right now) or even the Chineese resession spreading and dragging other major economies into resession.


 If the diff keeps going up big time, halfing COULD happen in very late June 2016. Remember that the "halfing clock" is a snapshot of current conditions, it can't predict future difficulty increases that DECREASE the time-to-halfing.

Its a difficult question to answer. I would vote for December as I think bitcoin might have enough users by then.

Why is it that only the Chinese are focused here all the time???
Are only they buying BTC all the time and do you really think they were just Chinese alone who pumped BTC to $1k???
Who the hell are we all then???

Its an open secret that chinese people generally never heard of bitcoin.  All this china china bullshit is just pathetic.  Should work on getting more adoption in the West. 

Chinese people just follow and copy us here in the west, they didnt invent bitcoin.
If you ever been to china you would know, they just copy whatever we do. Music, culture, technology, finance. Etc etc.

If chinese people could see how pathetically this community sucks their dicks im sure they would dump bitcoin straight away

Also, most volume on chinese exchanges are fake.

i know your felling but dont get upset we will have price change big in halving and possible latter when demand for btc is high

voted november 2016. november has been a good month in the past and it will be months after the halving. last halfing took place in 2012, but no price action. btc started to rise a few months later in 2013.

I would say October. I see this happening either just bit before the halving or bit after it. Around halving anyway. My money right now is after the halving has taken place.

I am not sure if it will happen, but if it will happen, it must be around july/august.

The impact of the halving could result in a mega boost or nothing at all will happen, like the prevous halving.

with the current halving there is much more money involved. wealthy investors have found their way to bitcoin as well. all this will result in the best block halving so far. just the speculation is already enough to get people active and make them panic buy when the bull run is starting. expectations of bitcoin probably have never been so high as now.

my vote goes to 2017, and that is being very optimistic. I am sure that halving alone won't bring us to $1k, let alone the ath. therefore we need something additional to happen. whether it comes in 2016 or not, I do not know.

If it is so my vote go first for 2025. Then for 2030. And again at 2035. So I can continue since will find numbers or since the number I know or be able to write. Everyone of us here believe that in time the value of bitcoin will be always more higher. No one hope the end of it. So everyone can tell the year he want and will be correct with its "prediction". But there is only a little thing that must be told before doing all these "predictions" and that must be remembered by them, by me and our friend who have made the above post quoted by me. The title of thread want to "know" the "prediction" of the achievement of the higher price in one of the month of this year and not further. And all we who make posts in his thread must respect (are obligated) his "desire". So make "prediction" only about what he want to "know". Otherwise may happen that one will speak for the price of bitcoin the next year and another for the price of ether after three years. ;)

nobody can be correct, but i think that bitcoin can go to ath in July or December

July because of halving, i mean it will rise price for sure, without doubt, price rises even now because of it,  and December because of xmas, price always rises then

No, it really doesn't. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1380429.msg14311653#msg14311653) It rose last year, and in 2011 and 2012. It fell in 2013 and 2014. Nobody can be correct when discussing the future, but it's entirely possible to be correct when discussing the past.

it must be said that in christmas 2013, it went down but it went high quickly after it in january 2014, so it's not really a fall

edit... typed too fast

True - it entirely depends on the period being looked at. Last Christmas (when this meme was last doing the rounds) there were a number of variations - December, festive period, first quarter of the following year, December through to February, etc. I looked at various permutations, and the only thing I could say with any certainty was - for any given period over the four (now five) years it was impossible to draw any conclusions. Despite this, the idea that price will definitely fall (or rise) is a persistent one.

If this  really happens  has more possibilities only happen in the second half of the year, So specify a month is very difficult.

i also think that it will go to ath at July, and of course because of halving, i can't think of another chance for bitcoin to go to ath if not after halving, price rises even now, imagine what price will be after halving, others says around 1000$ and it can be true

if we expect same scenario like last time then October November this year if everything goes well like last halving then this is my prediction

i am expecting the big rise because of the halving to happen in around June, July.

but i don't expect an all time high anymore and expect something around twice the current price at most, unless the block size drama is solved once and for all during the rise to fuel the rocket to the moon.

My suggestion is around  August of this year. If halving occurs surely a price increase can be experienced. But in August if there is no halving also price can be expected around $600.

anything is possible with bitcoin, there has been a small rise recently but it is too soon to tell if it is going to continue or stop and go back, this might even be the start of the big rise.
but my vote goes to May anyways.

my gut tells me that it will be like last time November maybe or month sooner October maybe
but i hope it wont be like that