Bitcoin Forum

This thread is about everything related to: / Forex / Commondities / Indicies / Stocks
Your thoughts & charts and ideas are appreciated!

- Just post your chart/ideas or interesting news you found
- Also any questions you might have

- Completely new traders are very Welcome
   (What are you interested in? Daytrading? Swing Trading? Long term investing (especially stocks, indices & commodities) What broker to take?
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I am new. Where do I start learning about trading the globule markets? Charting? Signals? Support/resistance?

 check out -> https://www.babypips.com/ <-

Also a good introduction Playlist on youtube for new traders:

 check out -> YouTube Forex/trading introduction playlist (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo4z26THnpo&list=PL955C4CF5A10309F7) <-


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You already have experience in trading? Have a look over at the DailyFX Youtube channel. Professional analyses by a currency specialists regularly.
 check out ->DailyFX YouTube Channel (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCd9kfH8fkmAdtIyune0ns2g) <-

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Brokers to suggest which accept Bitcoin:

SimpleFX:
https://simplefx.com/ (https://simplefx.com/n/_5555)

Positive:
+ Very many pairs overall. Also all major crypto pairs (LTC, ETH, Bitcoin Cash)
+ Several deposit/withdraw options for both crypto and FIAT. (FIAT requires verification)
+ Supports MetaTrader 4 (https://www.metatrader4.com/) (gives the option to copy trades from professional traders across many brokers which I do not recommended)
   MT4 is especially interesting for active day traders.
+ responsive and professional customer support
+ accurate overnight swaps (which can be positive,therefore you get paid to hold some positions)
+ up to 500x Leverage on your account margins. (not for your single trades)
Negative:
- spreads are moderate (unless you are a scalper you shouldn't care about this too much anyway)
- crypto pairs are a bit high (besides BTC/USD which is good)
- LOT system for position size
- dynamic spreads can create giant spreads during high impact news(Keep an eye on the Ecconomic-Calender! (https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/))


1Broker:
https://1broker.com/ (https://1broker.com/m/r.php?i=3908)

Positive:
+ Very basic and simple interface. Good for completely new traders.
+ Low spreads overall.
+ fixed spreads (high impact news are less violent then on simplefx)
+ The very first and therefor oldest and most reliable crypto Broker for the globle markets.
+ 200x max leverage (can be adjusted for every trade itself)
+ directly copy traders from the 1broker platform (Which I again do not recommend)
Negative:
- High over night swap fees(unlike simplefx you wont get paid)
- No MetaTrader 4 (https://www.metatrader4.com/) support (very bad usability on mobile devices)
- currently no other deposit options besides BTC
- no crypto pairs to trade currently (but coming soon with https://1fox.com/)
- much less pairs to trader overall (compared to simplefx)

        

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How do I share my Charts/Ideas?
--> https://www.tradingview.com/ <--

Quick Start for TradingView:
https://i.imgur.com/XBRAqs5.png
1.) Click on "Chart" or Type in what you are looking for.
2.) In this case the S&P500 = "SPX500". It can be tricky to find what you are looking for but you will get used to it



https://i.imgur.com/2EDxs9j.jpg
1.) Open main chart                                                        6.) Your personal watch list
2.) Time Interval (between 1 minute and 1 month)                7.) Instant snapshot of your chart
3.) Drawing tools                                                            8.) Publish your Idea. It will create a chart which can be
4.) Indicators (more information about their function soon)          "played" from when you created it. -Example here- (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/dJPqrzav-Crude-Oil-USOIL-Levels-to-watch-at/)
5.) Set an alert!                                                             9.)  Economic-Calendar: All important number releases (GDP,
                                                                                        Inflation reports, Retail sales).  -Alternative Also look here- (http://investing.com/economic-calendar/)


____________________________________________

Keep Doing it if you Enjoy doing it!

Would you say you are more of a technical trader? Look for patterns in charts etc?

About 9 months ago I was trading CFD's in gold
I was trading with looking for divergence in a few indicators I had setup.
There was more involved in just that. But it did work for me and I did quit well.
I did this while I was off work with a injury. But I would like to get back into. Just need to setup everything again and
find the time to do it. Most profit was made within a a 4 hour period. After that it died out for the day.

Depending on news events I would trade later as well.
Also did some oil CFD's as well. They were tricky. I had different ways of trading different markets.
Did some stop hunting. Found little things in Forex pairs that worked very well. Always did well with GBP/JPY   Always lots of action and swings with this pair
Pretty predictable at the time. But I have not looked at the charts in a long time. I still do follow the markets through the news.
If you can grasp human emotions and Order flow you can do very well.

It was 4 months after I starting looking into the markets before I made a trade with real money.
I studied and learned first. And traded with demo accounts first. Not going to lie, was very tempting to dive right in with real money. But I resisted and
had a good teacher that showed me a lot of things.

In Forex anyone can not only profit, but also make fast profit. But of course better is, if you have some experience.  ;)

I've been in forex for years now and i started learning from the pipsology of babypips forum. I downloaded the InsiderSignal of AndyX CDs just to learn how to use the metatrader back then.
But you should learn Forex trading faster if you will just try the Free trading systems from the users of babypips, most of them works depending on the kind of trader you become.
I end up losing more from the cable market (GBP/USD) and so i just stick to the UER/USD.

I use 1Broker to go short or long for various indexes and commodities. I learnt technical analysis but I mostly do news-based trading.
I am short for WTI oil and Eurostoxx 50 at the moment with a leverage between 5 and 10. Both position have brought me 35%+ gain by now.

How often do you trade? How do you decide where to put your s/l?

Also how long have you been trading? :)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qy1LBL2G/

CRUDE OIL - USOIL - Levels to watch ~~

USOIL is caped in a triangle for now. Overall it's trading sideways.

ways to trade Crude Oil:
1.) Trade the triangle formation with tight s/l above the highs / lows
2.) Wait for a breakout of the triangle with a s/l below the breakout in case it's a fake out.

Overall we could go a bit higher but as long as the OPEC is not cutting their oil production don't expect a bullish trend to really develop for oil

TV Link:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USOIL/dJPqrzav-Crude-Oil-USOIL-Levels-to-watch-at/

One last Chart for this week:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Vf4wsKPY/

Gold(XAUUSD)
Might be at the edge of the multi-year bear trend.

Formation looks really bullish on the weekly + Daily chart .

Watch the "Important area" mark, if it breaks with strength we should get a nice run.
Also watching the RSI on the Daily chart for more conformation of a fueled bull run / scalp short trigger.

It also confluences with the global recession fears and the slowdown in China. It would also fit the bigger picture of a USDOLLAR which had a very dramatic and rapid break down the last couple days.

This is kinda a longer term outlook to work with and to keep in mind. But if the stock markets completely break apart in a dramatic dump Gold should be the next safe-heaven for a longer bull-run.

____________________________________________


Edit 08.02.16: Wow. Gold momentum is still increasing. We just started the week and we are almost through the "Important area" mark. Fear in the markets is growing rapidly as Gold is the best indicator for fear.

I haven't tried any of those brokers listed above but since they allow users to deposit btc, does it mean they won't need my IDs when registering to them?
I use to be with oanda to which they asked my driver's license, passport and a recent utility bill. Anyone isn't comfortable with it.

They have to ask for IDs if you could avoid taxes/launder money which you can't really do with a Forex/stock Broker.
If you have to pay taxes for you profits you made you will pay them when cashing out your bitcoins at a exchange. Therefor Broker often don't require KNY since they are not dealing with FIAT money.
If you are unsure you might write a support ticket to the broker you are planing to use.

In the end I don't think you will get into trouble since you can't really tax avoid / launder your money via Forex/stock markets.

i tried 1broker for some time, but after the intial, almost 100% of gain, i usually lose anything, the market make a trend shift that is unexpected and you lose everything how can i predict those shift in the market?

i think they are the most hard thing to deal with

To foresee it, it may involve news, maybe bank news.  and for technical, you may have to watch out breakouts on support levels so one mush have their levels drawn for any trend. The only that i kept on my schedule is the NFP.

I guess the problem is you find a good trade on an intraday but they are not in the overall trend.
It's hard but it's the aim of every good trader to buy into a trend where you never get stopped out and it keeps on going and going your direction.


USD/CAD was a great trend trade if you caught it. If you bought the breakout of the consolidation you would have had over 44days without any notable pullbacks and over 8% rise in that time which is a lot on Forex (Keep in mind many people trade with high leverage from 50x to 200x)... Forex is differently compared to bitcoin trading. You don't want to call/catch bottoms/tops like you want to do in bitcoin. You want to find strong and lasting trends. The magic is to find them and let them run.

Here is the USDCAD chart as an great example:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaiCBHUW8AEwZtk.jpg:large

Nice thread!
I've been thinking in investing some capital into CFCs but I don't really know much about it. Perhaps your thread might help!
I'll be sure to follow your thread!

You are welcome!
My suggestion: Start with a low account size / low leverage. Get used to the Broker and learn how markets flow.
Draw some charts and work out a plan. Where you want to enter and where to put your stop-lose(SL) and where to place your take profits (TP).
It doesn't matter if you are trading on a 15min chart several times per day or on a bigger timer scale on trade every 3-4 weeks. You just have to have a realistic plan.

Once you are starting to make constant trades you can add to your account so always have a good feeling entering a trade.


Also I am thinking about an E-Mailing list I would send out some ideas/charts. I won't post too many charts here in this threat for now to keep the spam low.

just contact me:

Treano.fx.@gmail.com


Wish you a great week! :)

Hi,

World markets are coming down w/ a serious several-years drastic change to volatility levels & downside risk factors since December, very, VERY big things are brewing now, China's problems along w/ the US FED + UK BOE signalling that after all, potentially, they may NOT continue to hike their national currencies' interest rates in 2016-2018, and instead, actually slash rates downward towards 0% and possibly even in negative territory - this is monumental because the main reason by far that the US Dollar (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/charts) had always been in bulltard mode for the past couple years was because the US FED was chanting they would hike rates UP as the "US Economy is recovering so well.." which pushed the dollar UP & kept pressure on EUR, GBP, etc.

The minute it is no longer an inarguable fact that US economic data has been so good, that US recovery is so real, and that US FED will absolutely raise or at least keep rates steady ; the minute institutional investors start expecting real risk that the FED might instead actually *lower* rates - that's when the USD / DXY really dumps down from its bulltard advance the past 2-3 years, and in the past several days that's what we've been seeing on the markets - EUR GBP JPY *UP*, USD *DOWN*.

Now that the world's macroeconomic factors are almost universally pointing to a short- & mid-term bear market in equities (stocks) (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/INDU/) and commodities (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/commodities/) , it's no wonder gold (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/) has been pumping upward so much, w/ barely any dips in price - it had been pressured down for so long, after all - Though this capital & risk flight barely helps BTCUSD (http://www.bitcoinwisdom.com) because the affluent chinese' capital controls evasion (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-25/bitcoin-bullion-soar-chinas-creeping-capital-controls-loom) goals are met w/ resistance to using BTC to achieve it, since the recent blocksize debate contention (https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/duplicates/438hx0/a_trip_to_the_moon_requires_a_rocket_with/) have spooked many into just relying on good-old gold as a hedge vs. unstable / scary world markets collapse risks & economic slowdowns / currency devaluations.

So TLDR this global climate of risk aversion means USD down, EUR up (mostly because US down), GBP up (a bit less, though, for this reason (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1348351.msg13812343#msg13812343), chiefly), JPY up (risk-off safe haven), CHF up (risk-off safe haven) Wheat neutral, Oil up & down (for many reasons), CAD therefore also up & down (tied to oil), AUD & NZD down (commodities-tied currencies), Gold up (risk-off store of value), Stocks down (risk-off), Bonds up (risk-off - but eventually down too, when/if things get really ugly). So, extremely simple then? Not so fast - If things are that clear/easy to see, w/ even the world's biggest investment banks' analysts currently saying 'yes it's a bear market, things will be bad, sell your stocks, etc' then inevitably that shows a CROWDED trade environment in which there are too many bets stacked on one side, and thus, at the slightest hitch of 'dead cat bounce' rallies/etc, it only takes one viral news headline - and suddenly there is a 'rush for the exits' - in this case, a rush BACK into risk-on assets, which causes violent moves in both directions, in order. So no, it's not as simple as 'naked short-sell everything zomg, and baI gUoLD!21!11!' ;)

Important to consult ZH (http://www.zerohedge.com) & also balance that equities-perma-bear gold-bulltard view w/ some MW (http://www.marketwatch.com) + FF (http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php) <- Click those links & bookmark - you cannot survive as trader w/o these cardinally indispensable resources (http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php), both fundamental / macro-economics & technical / chart indicators feedback.


Some critically informative recent posts I've curated from around the finance world :

[>] http://www.tradeciety.com/the-5-stages-every-trader-goes-through-before-becoming-profitable
[>] http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/09/22/fundamentals-are-only-half-the-story
[>] http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7007834#post7007834
[>] http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8662251#post8662251
[>] http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-04/opaque-process-collapse
[>] http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/01/the-big-short-accuracy


Some quotes for the ages :

"The problems of our current monetary system are the result of the actions of the USA (Bretton Woods with the approval of most of the victors of WW2) and Richard Nixon. After that Congress took full advantage of the reserve currency status (egged on by the public who enjoyed more benefits with lower taxes.) Now that the chickens are coming home to roost we are loking for someone to blame.

This mess is not the fault of the central banks...they serve at the pleasure of the government. To believe otherwise is just simplistic thinking. At ZH there are a few favorite scapegoats like Boomers, jews, politicians, political parties and the FSA. In truth we Americans have lived higher on the hog than any other nation. In a big way this was do to our ability to print dollars and spend them into the economy without 'the pain of work'. The recycling of the dollars we spent by the world's central banks , as they sent our dollars back to us to buy treasuries, insured that the government could continue to spend yet not raise taxes. This worked for half a century but is now breaking down.

Not to understand what is actually happening, blaming the wrong groups and believing in incorrect models will only lead to personal bankruptcy and punishment of innocent people. Behaving with clear thinking is hard when the whole world is suffering but we will get a much better outcome if we do."
 ~ ZH'er


"This is when trading becomes boring – and trading should be boring! At this stage, the trader has spent years of looking at screens and taking the same setups hundreds or even thousands of times. He knows exactly how his preferred setup looks like and trading becomes a waiting game.

At this stage, the trader has fully internalized that he can’t win every trade and, more importantly, he does not really care about losses as long as he has followed his rules. Trading is now an activity of pattern recognition, risk management and constant self-improvement."
 ~ Rolf @ TradeCiety


"The middle class is shrinking and they claim the 1% are making too much. Is that really the problem? No. The problem is the 40% (government) is broke and consuming a steady increase in the proportion of everyone’s income. Government produces nothing. It lives off of what everyone else produces. The more it grows, the lower the real economic growth."
 ~ Economics Blogger


"One day I had lunch with a provincial Chinese govt. official. He told me he had made two trips to the US and had hosted many trade delegations from the US in China. He smiled and said, the United States is socialist. We (China) are capitalist. I shook his hand and told him that he understands what millions of Americans don't."
 ~ ZH'er


"As long as I can find a winning strategy, however tenuous, *I don’t give up.* *In danger lies opportunity.* It’s always darkest before dawn. [Focus on mastering process - Not on the results. They will come in due time.]"
 ~ George Soros

Some UK Politics + GBP Dynamics analysis I've done :

https://i.imgur.com/o9C9lFu.jpg

Want me to trade your account (http://imgur.com/wEYSAWW)? Sign up on 1Broker (https://1broker.com/m/r.php?i=1939), share me the password/login, make sure 2FA is on, don't share access to associated email (only you control that, obviously) - and therefore, I can trade your funds, but cannot withdraw! Only you can withdraw funds therefore no possibility of exit scam/running - Zero counterparty risk from me, & 4 year reliability record from 1Broker (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=123492) & Exxe (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=39069).

1] I make you money? Keep it - Send a small tip if you like.
2] I lost you money? Change your password, I won't login, we are done, no prob.

Trade Explorer : ~Exocortical Bitcoin Dreams~ (http://www.forexfactory.com/entheogenism#acct.86)
My Skype : 'Post-Cosmic Satoshianism'.
Via E-Mail : Lucramastery@GMail.Com.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eoUb09xw/

Very very big level for USD/JPY right now. I did send out this Chart on sunday via the Mail list, here the Weekly version of it to see the pattern clearer:

- Head & Shoulders Pattern: If we break the Neckline around 115,50$ we could see a completing of the clear H&S pattern. -> http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/head-shoulders.asp)
- over 70% of retail traders are currently long on UJ. -> could fuel a break / retail traders are fighting this move heavily.
- Always keep in mind Japanese Yen is very much depended on Stock markets. If Stock markets sell of, JPY gets much stronger. (very bearish UJ since you trade USD against Japanese Yen). Stock markets are still in Sell-out mode.

--> Also: retail traders could be right and we could bounce of at this area. Everything can happen in the end.


In the end the 115,50$ mark is a really really important level for the USD/JPY pair. It could bounce since we declined already much from the recent high. But this area is the kill zone. If it breaks I am in.

____________________________________________

EDIT: Also great to see as the fear of a collapsing stock market increases, Gold shines and gains value rapidly. As predicted on my idea from last weeks Gold Post.

--> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1348351.msg13779239#msg13779239
-> Gold is the best Indicator of fear in the market.

Thx Post-Cosmic, for your great input!

What you have described is the general view on the market.

For Forex: We are currently at a race to the bottom. Everybody wants a weaker currency so in the end all the giant money programs lose their weakening effect against each other and become neutral on the market effect or even create the opposite effect (BoJ going for negative interest rates and gaining a stronger JPY as a result) etc.

IF the FED would start raising their interest rates to normal at this point (theoretically they. Economy data is looking good compared to the rest of the world). BUT if they rise interest rates further they would simply extinguish their growth potential because there is no other Central bank following a hawkish few currently. (Maybe the BoE but not really.)

We are currently at a  risk aversion  situation which simply means every position that is considered risky is getting closed. So stock markets fall and it has a cascading effect.

What a volatile day... Crazy how fast everything is moving and how aggressively...


Anybody caught some good swings in the last session? :)


Edit: The USD/Japanese Yen building up a really strong bearish momentum.. Amazing. Here the chart updates:


https://www.tradingview.com/x/eoUb09xw/
Old chart 3 days ago posted


https://www.tradingview.com/x/Aei6BpT3/
current chart. Over 2,5% decline without any noticeable pullbacks yet. Keep in Mind that many people trade with 50x-200x leverage often. Trades like these are what every trader is waiting for all day. Here it is developing still.


Also: I am surprised how many people already contacted me to be added to the Mailing list, nice to see that so many people are interested :)

Yea..... Didn't expect the bear market to continue so fast, thought this little EURUSD 1.13XX->1.116X's dump we had earlier today would last & form a floor for at least a couple days, not just reverse completely in full USD/Equities-bear-mode 5 minutes later.. wtf.

Took a haircut - had to make a new demo / Trade Explorer (old one had high spreads anyway & undercapitalized/overrisking vs. broker's minimum Futures-CFD's trade size values) ;/

Good thing I'm still on demo - my non-demo funds aren't as exposed & also only for very short time periods, so they didn't get hit by this reversal ;p

It'd be hard, but extremely profitable, to catch this knife..but w/ this much downward momentum, it almost certainly needs some floor support build-up around 112 USDYEN before it can bounce seriously (temporarily, of course - it wouldn't reach the previous highs from last year..that time is gone) - Except in the case of a spike downward just a bit too violent, that might trigger a BoJ intervention, which would definitely make movements much more parabolic than even they've been lately ;o

Yen pairs offer insane recurring micro-ranging/scalp bounce mechanisms on every large & medium sized move, it's like clockwork..Just have to be cautious to exit right after a few pips' profit each time & take the loss on the odd time that it just keeps going without retracing.

 don't you think a breakout is going to happen on EURUSD 1.14XX, weeks ago i see this as a resistant.

Does H&S Pattern mean a bear trend is coming even when its on 1 hour or 5 minute chart? if h&s forms in the 5 minute chart, could it mean bear ion the next few five minutes?

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the 5minute chart. If you want to get a really good entry you can use the 5minute chart. But I wouldn't look for patterns in these time frames, it's like a coinflip so not what we want when trading. I would suggest the 30min chart if you are trading intraday.

In the end the trend defining chart is the 4h or Daily most of the time.


Head & Shoulders (Also reversed H&S) patterns are the best strategy to look for a bigger trend reversal WITH follow through after it breaks. It can happen on a smaller time scale like the 30minute as well, but if they print on the 4h or even like in the UJ case on a daily chart over the time period of 14 months it's when the Trend becomes most significant and the strongest.


The sad thing is: the majority of retail traders have no idea what they are doing. I was observing the positing which are published by some broker and it's a total mess. Retail traders are longing the shit out of USDJPY and shorting the shit out of EURUSD. UJ peaked at 76% LONG yesterday.... I am amazed how many bad traders are out there.. It's not like they are starting to get long now, they are constantly longing UJ all the way down from the peak.

Here the current positioning for retail traders:
https://i.imgur.com/siH7VAc.png


About EURUSD:
here my current chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HuC5UZmP/

The reason why the Euro is not strengthening as rapidly as the Yen does is because it's technically not free to fly like UJ is. Look at the bigger picture, this is the break of a Multi year Bull trend in UJ and the USD in general (Look up the DXY chart on TW for the dollar Index). This could very well be the peak of the trend and the reversal.

The trend is overall very bullish for EU. It just broke out of the bigger downtrend-line (orange line) once we get above the last big high from 1.17 we could see EU picking up momentum, unless the ECB stops this rally with massive QE (Also BoJ will do everything to weaken their currency further.)

But unless the central banks react in a drastic way the weak USD will continue. Also in this case buy the rumors (the FED might hike interest rates rumors started in started around 2014 and) sell the news (actual rate hike of 0.25 points) which was the peak . If the world economy doesn't recover very soon I don't see this turning back up again.


If you trade you should always take a look at the bigger picture on a weekly chart and zoom out. especially in Forex trends can get very strong and last for a very long period of time.

Never try to pick tops/bottoms just buy into the trend at a good timing is my suggestion.

why scalp it? if you bought into the trend yesterday you would have been up over 2% today. We dropped right from 115$ to 111$... Always move your s/l to break even once it breaks down to another level. It could bounce hard at any time but I wouldn't bet it even thought the volatility right now is high. I simply do not trade against the trend.

Always take partially profits on the way down so if you get stopped out at break even you still made money on the peaks down. 111$ would have been the ideal take profit target.


It's Thursday, markets often print a weekly low. It doesn't mean it will go up from there but at least it should go lower.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/697845738252935169 -> "Russia PM warns foreign offensive in Syria could spark 'world war'"
Really concerning news. This would just fuel the dumping on the markets. Gold should spike even higher.

The Russian PM statement  is related to this:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/general-saudi-arabia-set-deploy-troops-syria-160205042542486.html

You just went full equities-beartard, zerohedge gold-bug-degenerate style.

Never go full-beartard.

How much $ did you lose when Kuroda BoJ-fucked ya last night, w/ your 'trend is Enshrined By God - Follow or Die' thing..? <3

As we say on Wall Street:  Buy the rumor, sell the news

and: buy low, sell high.

Easy, right? So why cant people do it?  Why do they always buy high and sell low?  Because of psychology.  The more expensive something is, the more they want it.

Because they get narrow-minded into worshipping a single trend as The Holy One like TReano^ up there & end up buying ever higher, & selling ever lower.

The less contrarian you are, the more trend-worshipper - the more you'll get stuck buying high, selling low.

I still don't get what you trying to express with your "worshipper" thing? ... I made great money the last couple weeks. Surely I also have bad trades where I get stopped out. But overall I am doing good.


There is very often a trend in the market. Short term (Intraday) or even longer term on the bigger scale. Just look at the S&P 500 chart. It's a butter clean over 6 year lasting Bull-Trend without any major pullbacks. It's not made up or some religion thing that happened. Then we had a bit over 1 year of sideways not really making any new highs/lows. Now we are in a strong downtrend, so I am looking for good short entries rather then longs (speaking about stock markets/indices).
Sure there is a possibility I am wrong and long a top/short a bottom I don't even care if I do because I have developed a plan which has proven to be profitable overall. If I am wrong I get stopped out, if not I make money on the trade.  There is really no magic when trading, it's simply something you have to learn an adjust to your personality.


Trends are everywhere, fashion, movies, companies and of course very strongly in the stock/forex market.. You just have to open your eyes and act smart when trading. If you are saying something like "trend-worshipper" you just prove that you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

Heyo! 2 charts for next week to take a look at:

__________________________


Gold (XAUUSD) - Short-term + Possible long term entry :

Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/8ztqZa4k/

• Situation overall didn't change. We are still in heavy risk-aversion. Looking to buy pull-backs
• Since we reversed at the top of the bearish channel, we could see some profit-taking here
• The expansion and the possible escalation of the Syrian war could propel Gold even higher
• If we break out to the topside the area above 1400$ could be a longer term target
• It's hard to define a reasonable stop (with good risk reward) if you go in at this price level

__________________________


Euro (EURUSD)

Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/8HjlLyNn/

• Even thought the Euro had a very bullish break-out to the topside, we reversed right at the trendline coming from April 2014.
• Should see a pullback as well the 1.11 area should be watched closely to take profits if you are short / go long for another Leg up
• If we go up at some point again I would look at 1.15 & 1.17 as targets.
• Always keep in mind that the Euro is a weak currency compared to the USD and the ECB is not happy about this development. Therefor always keep an eye on the calendar to avoid surprises.
• bullish as long as we are above 1.11, might as well touch the trendline if we go there straight.

__________________________
Also: Sorry, if you won't get an E-Mail update next week. I am really busy right now. I don't even know if I will be able to trade the next trading week. But I will answer questions if you have any.

This guys could have min. 5 big monitors targeting markets. :)      Good thread.

Looking at the bigger picture on a weekly chart and zoom out and going to daily and 4 hour chart is more like the 3 ducks trading strategy.
I have no issue trading on 4 hour chart but waiting can mean I have to constantly monitor the charts whether I'm losing pips or not. I have the tendency to exit a position when i see something didn't went well after 5 minute. :) which strategy can you suggestion for me?

Hey!

It depends a lot what type of personality you are in the end. You have to find a way to always feel good about your trade when you enter it. Some people are not patience enough to let a trade go for for longer then a day. These people should adjust their strategy and look for potential break outs on a 30min chart.

EurUsd was a great example for this recently:

Bigger time scale chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/g5YE0MAB/ (explaining the range, with lower highs)

It was stuck in a range constantly making lower highs and higher lows. (Yellow circles). You could have simply gone long once we closed the first 30min candle above the last peak high which was made. It can always be a fakeout but most of the time it will work, especially if it is in the direction of the bigger trend (EU is the whole time kinda bullish since the big spike). You stops have to be a smart in these situation. Because if it breaks it you often have a pullback to the level of the breakout. Try to get in at these pullbacks with a decent risk reward ratio so if you get stopped out 2 out of the 3 times you would still have made profits in the end.

Here the 30min chart with explanations in it.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UT5sVwXe/



The problem with this strategy is you have to spend a lot of time always observing a lot of pairs for break-outs.


You can also read more about break out trading here:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/trading-breakouts.asp

EURUSD:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/QjaRunf1/


-- right in the area to either bounce and aim for last year high around 1.17 or to at least stall the recent bullrun.


-- same with Gold, but the situation over there looks stronger right now and it already bounced a bit. Well. looks really bullish.
RSI staying high in the trend for both which is a bullish indicator.



Good Luck! Maybe we will get another nice bull run over the next week for both EURUSD and GOLD(XAUUSD).

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Really great news from simplefx!

They keep on developing constantly! I hope 1broker will catch up soon. I really liked them back in the days but they somehow stopped developing completely.


--> https://simplefx.com/ (https://simplefx.com/?sfx-r=049de740-a0a6-4053-a6a7-9c245c0da6ce)

Check out whaleclub.co (https://www.whaleclub.co). They have a live stream of technical analysis on their ideas page for BTC and forex.

And they have trading of gold, oil, EURUSD, BTCUSD with your bitcoin directly. They don't convert to fiat like other brokers do.

I've tried sfx and 1broker, they are not bad but the spreads go up way too much when there is volatility I have no way to make money. Switching over to Whaleclub, their spreads are fixed.

Plus: I have made a total of 0.08BTC with the SFX affiliate program in over 1 year lol.

Whaleclub has an affiliate program that pays 50% commission. Just started out last week. Current referred: 7 users | 0.56BTC which seems like a better deal to me... I just think more people ought to know about Whaleclub because it's run by pros instead of using amateur platforms. They don't advertise much on this forum.

Speaking of affiliate program > https://whaleclub.co/join/dUApq (https://whaleclub.co/join/dUApq) It's a good deal because you get 100% deposit bonus if you sign up with the link, that you don't get on regular sign up.

Fixed spreads do not represent the real market. Whale Club is likely just making money by the loses of their customers and not by actually placing their trades. Fixed spreads is a strong indication for that.

It's not a bad idea thought. It's not like they are scamming you. They will just eventually get into liquidity problems if they have a lot of really big and good traders on their platform which I doubt. Since more people will lose their money then other people actually making money. Even bigger traditional broker do this "trading against their customers".

"Forex Trading Video: Dollar Burns After NFPs Scourge Fed Forecasts, But SPX the Target "
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZqXPp1hEeY



Very good in deep analyses on the US-Dollar especially with now with the big Nonfarm Payroll miss from last Friday.
The S&P-500 hold is also really interesting...

Also the Brexit Situation is going to be really interesting in the next couple days. I guess the GBP should be a short overall. Especially the EUR/GBP pair looks really bullish.


Any special pairs you guys have an eye on for the next week? I already took profits on EU last week before the closing.

..What? Brexit Referendum is June 23, not ~June 6-9 lol.

But of course newspapers' polls constantly make headlines during the weeks prior, and this causes spikes in both directions as banks/traders panic & double-guess ; Agreed that GBP pairs should be a Sell on the pound until $1.40 and with some cautious long's under that level.


The biggest problem w/ the typical goldbugs' & bitcoin maximalists' theories, for one thing, is the idea that the US is dying.

That's the eternal wet dream of ZeroHedge.com goldbug taxi driver AM radio mentalities ;^  However, the most powerful major economic & military-political powers in the modern world aren't susceptible to rampant hyperinflation bubbles like Zimbabwe or 1920's Weimar Germany were.

Truth is, in order for USD to crash, something else really powerful & important (in GDP) elsewhere in the world, must be doing SO WELL in contrast.

The problem is, simply, there is no such major economic bloc right now that can provide this contrast.

China's problems are deep, structural, and it's not just that its been trying to switch painfully from a spammy wasteful industrial overproduction export-driven economy, to a domestic services-based one ; It's the incredible amount of debt, bad credit, pollution & waste it accumulated in the process.

The EU, our favorite subject - is not doing any better, as you ought to know. From Brexit, Frexit, Grexit & Spexit, to the Mideast Migrant crisis, to Russia's aggression and the european debt, economic & inflation/deflation problems ; The EU Commissioners' & Mario Draghi et al.'s jobs aren't made easy, for sure.

And of course, Russia, Japan, Brazil, Africa, Mexico, are so far up shit creek, it doesn't even need mentioning. Even AU & CA aren't in roses.

So, which major world economy is going to be doing so well for its equities & currency to be 'owning' the US dollar, then..?

There is none.

It's not that the US is doing good.

It's that everyone else isn't doing much better at all.

I meant that the majority of the a movement often happens before a predictable event. And as it seems the leave voters are far ahead now.
Maybe this is even going to be a typical sell/buy the news event in the end. It's going to be really interesting how the stock market and especially the GBP crosses are going to behave around the event. I think it's quiet possible that we will have big dump before/during the vote and that's going to print a major low you can work with for a longer term bullish trend. But the volatility could get really ugly.


-------


Yes the Market is really complicated right now. The US is doing the best out of all developed countries recently. China has problems but there is still a of potential. While on the other hand Europe and especially Japan face major major problems in several levels. Starting with debt, deflation(the ECB is not even expecting to hit their target in the next 2 years), aging society and therefor the upcoming pension problem(Who is going to pay for the old people). Etc. On top the EU is politicly speaking very unstable. The media is trying everything to keep the EU alive but I don't think the people are that stupid.

also keep in mind: The east wants step away from the USD. This is going to be also a major issue in the future but not right now.


But I agree with you. Even thought all the Central Banks around the world have a race to the bottom (beside the US and maybe GB). We don't see any real inflation anywhere. Since the markets are relative positioned to each other the result of all the 0% interest rate and big QE programs is not inflation but deflation. all the Gold/Bitcoin Gurus won't be able to understand this. They are all talking about hyper inflation since I can remember. Maybe they will be right some day but not in the near future.

Risk Aversion kicking in. The BoJ ignited these moves today by not doing anything.

Japanese Yen and the US Dollar are murdering every other pair right now. Especially the Yen is super strong.


Crazy volatile times across all markets right now. Amazing time to trade overall. Also Bitcoin still on bull fire.

I think that the safest way to invest in this days is to hold not less than 50% of free lequidity and try to scalp index and currency with other 50%.

*Whant to earn by forex, PM me!

Remarkable volatility across all markets. Unbelievable good times to trade.

Even thought the polls were 50:50 before the Brexit Vote on Thursday the market got caught completely on the wrong side, explaning the giant Market moves in the FX market. Indices and Stock markets didn't had these record moves thought. But there is much more to come.


A lot of professional Forex-traders who where around in 2008 said this market crash reminds them a lot to the initial Lehman brothers crash. Just more violent. So expect this to be the beginning of a market shift... (Risikoaversion is kicking in hard)

As an advice: Don't try to call/pick bottoms or tops in this market situation. Don't play the hero, be a fish in the world of banks and hedge funds. A lot of hedge funds lost a lot of money on this Brexit poll... So be ready. This is just like 2008 all over again. Brexit was just the lighter igniting the fire again. Netherlands,Italy even France will have deeper discussions to leave the Euro zone as well.

This could very well become the big market crash a lot of traders and especially Bitcoins have been waiting for. But the Bitcoin reaction to the Brexit move is not existing sadly. Not even the trading volume in GBP has notably increased. Maybe the Leave decision was the right decision in the end of the day.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/06/23/20160626_brexit1.jpg

Also:

A really good analyse and a really good Overview of the current Situation at the Forex / stock market by John Kicklighter.


Strategy Video: Has Brexit Finally Tipped Global Risk Aversion? from Friday night.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rhuaBdhvOQ

https://new.tradingview.com/x/VIH8nrvC/

EU - Potential short entry -

All the Brexit things caused some big uncertainty in the EU. Other country may follow the example with a referendum. Since there worst thing for a market is uncertainty this should create some nice downside pressure.

On top the ECB is getting more and more desperate pumping cheap money into the market to weaken the Euro even more aggressive. The effects of it will likely cause a lot of volatility but I remain sceptical of the success of further easing desperation moves in the end of the day.



This short entry would give us a good risk reward ratio. But a weak dollar is also possible which would make the Euro rally really hard coming to the end of the week, especially with the upcoming NFP data. Also the SSI shows retail traders are net short EU which would favor a topside target for now. But for a long play it's too late to get a good risk reward ratio at this point.

Yes I do often use pitch forks for daily/4h charts since they predict the price channel pretty well most of the time.

Yes, they work well on 1h too! I uselly use Dephic Phenomenon for open position too  ::) ;)

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/AkSDZj6g-EU-Potential-Short-entry/

Entered the trade on the wick. I was lucky to see it spiking up thought.

This could even develop into a longer term trade. I don't think we will revisit this area soon. Especially of the NFP on Friday do not shock like last time.

EUR/USD: Moving a bit slow. Might take longer then expected to develop. USD/JPY would have been the faster and better trade looking back as a trend trade.


Also short scalped GBP/USD over this week a lot. Worked out greatly so far. But I don't find any mid term trades attractiv regarding the GBP. Could spike up and down a lot.

Guys what do you thing about kind of mid term EURUSD? im still short on it,did a medium position,
i still wait for the break but im expecting it to go down a little but.
Can you share any insights?

depending where you entered. You can just share a chart via TradingView with us, so we can help you with your expectations. You could show your targets and we can tell you if they are reasonable and so on.


It can sometimes be hard to keep a position which is well in profits. But Euro/Usd has a lot of potential downside. Also keep in mind the non farm payrolls at US open tomorrow. If they miss again drastically Euro/usd could rally really really hard.


Regarding the Nonfarm payroll (NFP). It's the most volatile and quiet important Economic data out there.

 

You can find the Economic Calender here:

http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Actual: 287k
forecast: 178k
Last: 38k


Good Numbers. But Markets reaction is not that euphoric.

If they miss big again like last time we could see a big market shift.

New Week.

Not Setups I am specifically looking for yet.

1) Cable go to test low near 1.286, then if lose this next level seems 1.25
2) Eur\Usd is near to lose 1.10 . So 1.08 could be next step.
3) Usd\Jpy seems strong this morning, but i expect a test @100

 :)

what is your indicator trading stategy ?
you can share your use indicator and stategy placed sell or buy

1) I am not involved in Cable yet. Still too much news which can throw it one or another way. Also Hard to call in my opinion.
2) Already have a euro short running. Posted it here in the thread last week: -> https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/AkSDZj6g-EU-Potential-Short-entry/
           Planing to keep it for a few weeks, as long as it doesn't break to the upside at some point.-
3.) Yes Usd\Jpy got a lot of momentum after the election in Japan on the Weekend. I took a few small scalps on the retest of the fibs. But nothing major.



I also took a S&P500 long after it broke the all-time high. lets see how far I can ride it.
Further I am looking for a Silver entry. The Potential upside is crazy on the longer term.

Cable rebounded at 1.286  :o So this is a strong support.
Eur\Usd moves strange, but 1.1 is @ less than 80 pips  ;)
Usd\Jpy : this is my bad position. I didn't expecxt  this kind of rebound .

Silver is risky atm. Batter was around 17  :-\

Well, tbh I expect Cable to roll over at some point again. I am not so keen on a GBP/USD long. Downside potential is still bigger I think. But overall we are going to print a new low at some point and have a multi year bull trend from there. But I am not interested in calling any bottoms when something prints at +30 year low.

Yea I am not so happy with the EU short now. Expected it to move down more rapid. But didn't happen yet. Worst case it stops me out at small profits now-.

And I don't think Silver long is risky. It broke out of the multi year downtrend with strong momentum. Even Circuit breaker had to slow down the market in Shanghai... It was a crazy pump.
Just like Gold I expect it to retest their all-time highs at some point. Maybe early next year or so. I don't think there is much potential downside.
I am just looking for a good entry. Even considering to buy some physical gold/silver at this point as an bigger part of my portfolio.

The longer I have been trading the less indicator I have been using.
When I started trading I have been playing around with RSI and switched over to Stochastics at some point which I am still looking at sometimes. They are giving quiet good signals overall. So I would suggest to learn about RSI and Stochastics.

I tried other Indicators as well ofc like every new trader does. Because everybody hopes to find a magical Indicator which gives you easy signal with which you always make money and it's easy to see. But there is no such indicator. Trading is a lot about experience and knowledge about markets.

In the end all you will need is in my opinion: Fibonacci retracement, Trend-Lines and support/resistance levels.
But Indicators can overall help you while you are unexperienced to see things which are not obvious in the price chart. Also it can get you some confidens in a trade.


If you have any questions feel free to ask!  Trading is constantly learning and adjusting in the end.

not so successful this week.

Only had some good trades on UJ longs but also got stopped out of my EUR/USD trade sadly.

Next week will be better! At least I didn't lose money this week ;D

Yes, this week was quite strange.  ::)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rCyi3z2n/

LONG EJ - AFTER ECB AND BOJ DECISIONS

ECB seems to take a more of a wait and see approach while the BoJ is much more active.
Markets often position ahead of decisions and show their expectations. Therefor the divergence might be a good Eur/JPY long (risk on) trade. We will see if we even reach the TP target which are a bit optimistic.

Also I am unsure where to enter yet. market seems to be unsure at the moment. That's why I show quiet wide stops for this trade. But overall as long as we do not break the channel (teal line) we should go up by a weaker Yen and  stronger Euro overall. A great entry to get a lower risk would be the magic.

https://twitter.com/SimpleFXcom/status/756481642445889538

Interesting news for Investors:
SimpleFX just added stocks of MUFG, Nintendo, NTT, Panasonic, Sony and Toyota.


Have a nice weekend guys and happy trading!

Is there any brokering site besides Simplefx that accepts btc?

1broker

youre forex trading but why youre trade without use meta trader
i think is good if forex trading use meta trader 4, because you can use much indicator to analys youre trading

Though, I am not a fun of technical analysis but most times only use it for entries and exists point. I do use pin bar for entries and exist plan. I do advocates for people to spend there time study issues that movement bitcoin or others asset price such as news, market commentators and fundamental issues, as this what determine either you will make it or not.

So are there still some people more or less actively trading the Markets here or if not why did you stop trading?


If you are still active, what are you currently trading?


Hope you guys do all well!

Greetings :)

I was always wondering, Did the people who were trading on the forex before, have some advantage here trading on the cryptocurrencies market. I have already heard that two different opinions on that... What is yours?

You had a really big advantage in my opinion.
It was pretty clear how most people had no idea what they were doing, there was little to no knowledge about investing/trading. This is still true for most people.

Knowledge about trends, resistance, market cap, fear and greed phases is really important and can be used in a lot of situations outside the trading world as well. You get a deep look into the psychology of most humans in the end.

Thank you! Now i can see every chart in my country language. I know how to trade now. You should find and share more.

I stopped trading when I was in my final year of University, I am trying to get back to the market slowly. I might start posting good charts again here if people are interested.

 I suppose that the people who used to trade on forex have no advantage before the people who traded here, because forex and cryptocurrencies market are so different, that if you wanted to use your market trading skill here, they literally would not work.

it depends on which markets you were trading. Forex is ofc different but the classic Stock/Commodity markets are very similar just with much more historic data. You also have relentless strong trends, Bear phases and bull runs. Booms and Busts. It was just new that you can actually read more things by looking into order-books / understanding news.


Just keep in mind that even when people have been trading the traditional markets for several, doesn't mean they are profitable in the end. You always have to adept to new markets situations and adjust your style and expectations. Once you get to the point where you know when to step back / adjust your trades you are at the top 5%.