Bitcoin Forum

Just curious what rumors people are throwing around for the reason behind the recent rise from $13.50 to $13.80.  CES?  bASIC?  Something else?

The rumor about Bitcoin  :D

X-mas/New Year is over and everyone with money for bitcoins is tired of waiting for the price drop that isn't coming fast enough, if at all?

http://yfrog.com/kh1blhp
http://a.yfrog.com/img737/6305/1blh.th.png (http://twitter.yfrog.com/kh1blhp)

http://yfrog.com/mmr4mbp
http://a.yfrog.com/img814/756/r4mb.th.png (http://twitter.yfrog.com/mmr4mbp)

it was destined to happen.  this is from one of my updates.  i drew this triangle for my subs back on 12/28/12 and had been recommending a buy.  see that green ascending arrow at the end of the triangle?  price started up to the day from there which was 1/3/13:

https://i.imgur.com/sez4U.png

Meh.  The price always goes up by about 30 cents on/around January 9th, 2013.

The bitpay news hit around the same time...could be related.

Maybe some wealthy Israeli jumped in: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135088.0

+1

Anyone who has reasons explaining why it didn't happen is wrong so it must have gone up by about that much.

difficulty jumped up about the same time as the price increase...

AND they are at CES, could be a few folks are making a decision to get in the game.

Casuals finding out about bitcoin at CES, I guess.

the reason is clearly technically.
bitcoin prices broke out of the sideways consolidation I highlighted to my subscribers already on Dec 23. And after the last short term breakout alert, prices indeed broke out

btcfpga postponed delivery on their bASIC mining chip from Jan to March 2013. Same day (yesterday?) either someone posted a hoax or the CEO rather suddenly drunk posted on his forum that he was selling the company the asian manufacturers.  The latest is that the Chinese are out and some unnamed bitcoin heavyweights are in as suitors.  So, epic story for the grandkids resulting in less upstream production/lower anticipated difficulty. Looks like supply and demand to me with a bit of good old fashioned sound and fury.

Good job! Predicting a "breakout of a sideways consolidation" is like predicting that a road is going to turn when it stops going in the same direction. Prices always break out after a sideways consolidation because they can't do anything else.

Total BS. You were way off. Check the history. Prices did not start rising on 1/3/13 as you claim here. They were flat for another 5 days until 1/8/13.

probably same with s3052 and other "analysts". The technical picture was clear... the robo-sheep act on it.

Thanks robo-sheep!

you are right. the underlying factor behind technical analysis is psychology = herding behavior. but it works...

I'd like to hear the psychological basis for a head and shoulders pattern. Can you link any relevant studies? I didn't think so.

+1 LOL....

"Both of these head and shoulders have a similar construction in that there are four main parts to the head-and-shoulder chart pattern: two shoulders, a head and a neckline. The patterns are confirmed when the neckline is broken, after the formation of the second shoulder.    The psychology of traders represented in the head and shoulders pattern is similar to that of the double top, in that bulls and bears struggle for supremacy at different price levels.  As with the double top volume and the price target play a large part in this struggle between the psychological mindset of buyers and sellers."
link: https://sites.google.com/site/tradingstrategiesschool/module-2-chart-pattern-analysis/head-shoulders-and-reverse-head-shoulders (https://sites.google.com/site/tradingstrategiesschool/module-2-chart-pattern-analysis/head-shoulders-and-reverse-head-shoulders)

 

and more in detail explanation in those books
http://www.elliottwave.com/books/ewp/default.aspx?code=ocomi (http://www.elliottwave.com/books/ewp/default.aspx?code=ocomi)

http://www.elliottwave.com/socionomics/default.aspx?code=ocomi (http://www.elliottwave.com/socionomics/default.aspx?code=ocomi)

http://www.elliottwave.com/psishsb/default.aspx?code=ocomi (http://www.elliottwave.com/psishsb/default.aspx?code=ocomi)

The particularities of the patterns are irrelevant for this to work. As long as enough traders "use them" in their analysis they work. That's why simple patterns are usually more predictive than complex ones that are used less widely.

+1.

Well said.

since the OP specifically asked for speculation: I have noticed that the steepest rises (the surprises) always happened to me when I got up around 7:00 am CET. That would hint that the buying is occurring by asians and/or russians and maybe some arabs.

That's a odd response. He is basically saying that it works because it is self-fulfilling prophecy, not because there is any psychological basis.

The "psychology" is the "herding behaviour"

In other words, you are saying that the patterns (as well as all the Elliott wave nonsense) are just arbitrary rules that work as long as everyone follows them as a herd. I don't disagree with that statement, but I think most TA "experts" would.

my view is that psychology produces those chart patterns

That's not describing the psychology, that's color commentary -- something you might hear watching a football game.

"bulls and bears struggle for supremacy" and "struggle between the psychological mindset of buyers and sellers." Give me a break.

And I doubt those Elliott Wave books have explanations that are any better.

I understand your view, but it is not rational if it is not based on facts, evidence, and verifiable research.

This is exactly the point.
Markets are NOT rational and fact based but purely psychological and thus is why you get irrational exuberance bubbles and crashes.

And because most people do not know about this or don't believe it, most people sell right at the bottom and buy at or close to the took
And only those who are " rational about the irrationality of markets" are in the right side...

i will like to add that is quite a good book   http://www.amazon.com/Irrational-Exuberance-Robert-J-Shiller/dp/0767923634

My point is that Technical Analysis is not rational.

I would like to point out that molecular wrote that "The particularities of the patterns are irrelevant" and you wrote "Well said" -- basically agreeing that your statement "my view is that psychology produces those chart patterns" is irrelevant.

Yes, for the most part I think these patterns are arbitrary and any other set of patterns if accepted by the majority would work just as well.

I'm aware some technical experts will disagree, maybe most of them. But if you read the blue text here you will notice that at least one expert agrees with this.

I don't think that necessarily follows. The patterns could have emerged from psychology a long time ago just like the use of gold as money has emerged a long time ago (see regression theorem) and now it's just herd behaviour to value it highly.

one of the fun things you can try to do is to look at random-walk charts (generated by a very simple random walk function) and real world charts. i can assure you, experienced traders will almost instantly tell you which ones are real and which ones are only random.

and it's also true that many traders don't know about all those TA tools, and even if they know, they interpret it differently. so, the logical conclusion, that it is self fulfilling because everyone sees the patterns -- and the same patterns -- is wrong. hence it must be that the entire collective of all traders is making these patterns.

Not if I measure the probability distribution of both the magnitude and frequency domain and make my random walk match it. It'll be still essentially random but I am willing to bet you guys couldn't tell the difference.
Now how do you suggest we test that hypothesis?

Generate some graphs and get some real graphs.  See who can tell the difference.

Yes problem is pll will remember a pattern they have seen already, even if it is random. So if I use mtgox data it would be possible to "cheat"
Is there any way to get chart data from stocks/forex/etc?

what i meant, to be precise, a "simple" random walk, not a high-level random pattern generator. that might be too hard, but maybe worth a try.

you can get data from yahoo finance and google finance i think ... 2-3 years CSV data and such things.

do you want 1min or 5 min data compatible with sierra chart ?

tick data are way to much GB

try this: http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-exchange-rates/real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx?m=c

how much data you can download ?



5min bar
eurusd
commaseparated
gmt time
since 2007
http://www.putlocker.com/file/E4D7862683F19FEC

Markets are anti-inductive. (http://"http://lesswrong.com/lw/yv/markets_are_antiinductive/") If everyone believes in a technical phenomenon, then that pheonomenon will stop working as a result of people trying to front-run it.

you are wrong. 

https://i.imgur.com/eAKNZ.png

Hold! Hold! Hold!

what bitpay news

What?  ;D

pausing at the top of the coaster, is it a drop or another hill next?

http://siliconangle.com/blog/2013/01/09/bitpay-receives-510000-in-funding-round-to-feed-into-bitcoin-processing/

for those watching...

You have now entered, "The Profit Taking Zone"

Don't worry, the cycle starts back over in 1-4 months!

This would be my bet. From what I understand lot of the traders on Mt Gox are actual banking and finance types trading on their own, who have the money to keep pushing BTC value upwards. Unlike with the Silk Road bubble where people were just pushing up the price because they wanted online drug buying tokens and dumped them because "Tor is hard" and the threat of a crackdown appeared, this round of money boosting BTC is buying because they are investing.

When good news happens like the BitPay funding they are going to feel bullish. The best thing we can do as bitcoiners is not do stupid shit like send half a million bitcoins to the next Pirate, allow any services we might run to get hacked repeatedly (cough, bitcoinica), or otherwise as a community do anything stupid enough to get a negative bitcoin stories on Slashdot or Ars Technica. If we want to see the price of bitcoin continue up, we have to keep up the good news.

My explanation, few peoples with cash realized that bitcoins are really under valued.  They bought because they understood that BTC under 20 U$ are cheap !

You really have it with logic, hmm?

It's just because we can't mine trillions of coinz.
Wait until the debate moves on to the quadrillion-coin.

Indeed, the presure down from miner selling mined coin got halved since late november.. Take a look, the price chart indicate a nice upward trend since the halving day. 

Half presure down..  Less big sell from miner.. all the way BTC should be.  My bet, a steady, +20$ before summer !

What a usefull post !  this may explain yhe color of your ignore button ;P

Yes it does.

I remember back after the $35 bubble people were saying that a BTC is really something like $50 and $15 is really cheap!

I would say DoomDumas's idea of $20 true market price is regardless more accurate than those people's $50 example.

That too, but it demonstrates the thought process. It's only cheap if we aren't going back into the single digits.

Cheap is relative...

Months? I doubt it will be that long.

They say they got sponsored by an amount of half a million dollars in a press release.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2013/01/07/largest-bitcoin-payment-processor-raises-510000-angel-round/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2013/01/07/largest-bitcoin-payment-processor-raises-510000-angel-round/)

My guess is we will be break 14.4$ by next week.

$13.40 next week...or the week after

$13.50 was pretty comfortable.

You know what's funny?

SgtSpike asked about the sudden $0.30 rise before the sudden $0.30 rise actually happened.

no....and posts can be edited

Just read this and thought I'd leave it here.

I think we are generally overestimating the short-term effect of positive news (like wordpress, goldmoney, bitpay,...) and underestimating the long-term effects.

Sure, on good news traders with fiat at the exchanges will buy. But keep in mind these people are prone to take a profit even on a $0.15 rise, so the effect will be short-term and short-term only. No new fiat comes in through this mechanism so there wont be a lasting effect.

The long term effect of good news bringing in fresh blood on the other hand is too easily forgotten about by the time the news is old and we then ask ourselves: "why the $0.30 rise on no news?"

See for example the reasons I gave for justifying my intution of a rocket about to be ignited in this thread on Nov 5th last year: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=122454. We might still see the effects of this 2 month later. Think about it: it takes time to go from hearing about bitcoin to actually making a sizeable purchase: First the guy has to get his initial infos about bitcoin. He will then ponder the idea for a while and let the overwhelming info sink in (a week or two), then revisit bitcoin and get excited, take another week to make the decision to get in. Then it takes a week for him to actually get money to an exchange (yes, a majority of newbs will think mtgox is the way to buy bitcoins). Then he will wait for a dip or rally to actually get int (another week or so). Add this up and you have 1-2 months.

;tldr: the current rally is fueled in considerable part by newbs generated by 2 months old good news.

You have a better way of buying?

localbitcoins.com

Then the fun is still waiting to happen, given the last 2 months of financial news (like the trillion $ coins, the euro-trainweck, Japs going pedal to metal with the money printer, and on and on).

exactly

Hey con,

All this news coming out of the gold camp has to be concerning?  Especially all of Traces work?

concerning? is con a bear?

Concerning if you don't have gold/silver/btc/canned beans or a passport and an escape plan. Who is Traces?

Trace Meyer (http://www.runtogold.com/). Introduces bitcoin to gold/silver crowd and others.

cavirtex works fine for me !
I'll never do business with MtGox again !

and if that's not enough for you:

Huh?  No I didn't.  When I made the post, the price had been up to at least $13.80 for a little while (not sure how long exactly).  It just so happened that it was part of an even larger move to go beyond $14.00, but my original post was specifically talking about the rise from $13.50 to $13.80, which happened prior to my making the post.

Don't know bout you, but where I live there is a hefty fee for buying coins through localbitcoins.com . 
The only possible advantage I see is that you could stay anonymous.

 I don't know that I would ascribe the current rampant bulls to high forum traffic (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135959.0) but I would guess they both have a common cause?

GATA accepting BTC

forum running quite slow for me, anyone else?

Yes.

spike in traffic
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135959

...due to the $0.30 rise.

I know, I know. It's just that the rise from 14.00 to 14.30 was much sharper and I was trying to fool people into thinking that had been the rise (if you look at a chart, that one really jumps out and dwarf the previous rise(s) in speed). So I figured I could trigger some comments along the lines of "wew, SgtSpike did the buying" or "he's psychic!".

Pretty lame I must admit in hindsight.

You can also put up a buy order and possibly buy below market if it gets taken. I don't know wether these routinely get taken by people though because I only ever sell on localbitcoins.com and do the buying somewhere else (bitcoin.de, bitcoin-central).

I took a sell order yesterday which had got left behind the market at the time I made it - and I was very impressed with the seller honouring it 12 hours later when the price relative to market was distant history.

:D

And this is the reason I don't sell there...!  I'd forget to update my order with the latest BTC price!

You can set a dynamic price.

https://www.localbitcoins.com/cash_exchange_howto#howto_pricing

you don't have to update your offer. You can use a formula there like mtgoxUSD * 1.079. The problem is that when a buyer takes your offer, the price is locked in.

Maybe another approach would be to have the price not lock in but keep adjusting until the transaction is actually made (cash passes hands)?

Ah, didn't realize!

I sell my mined proceeds at Gox; here lately all my limit orders have been filling rather quickly, even at .05-.1 above market.  Relativley small orders though.

Love it when I am right  ;D

Me and my subscribers too. :-)

My subscribers have probably profited a lot from my correct bullish forecast.