Bitcoin Forum

if anyone wants to get a TL;DR for EW go here http://thepatternsite.com/Elliott.html

There is also a know fact that there are not 2 equal EW analysis and is next to impossible to get the same count from 2 ppl, most ppl advice to trade only when the count is clear the end of wave 5 to sell and the end of wave C to buy until the move is not complete is next to impossible to get any good count using EW since there is to much variation


In this first post i will like to address something that got posted on a different thread about a correlation between US stock market and bitcoin, from a fundamental point of view this correlation can be possible since the mood of traders that operate on both markets can be affected. (the case for bitcoin wedge was made on this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=135827.0)


http://yfrog.com/ke22qtp
http://a.yfrog.com/img734/6715/22qt.th.png (http://twitter.yfrog.com/ke22qtp)
http://thepatternsite.com/EWDiagTriangle.html


here is the vix if you want to look for correlation
http://yfrog.com/es9dlap
http://a.yfrog.com/img532/5340/9dla.th.png (http://twitter.yfrog.com/es9dlap)

EWs are highly subjective.

my dear friend did u read the bold part or not ?

this was the major problem for me when i used EW.  it was also painful to watch Steve Hochberg butcher his every other day calls regularly.

one thing that EW say is that the market is fractal so any wave up can actually have 5 smaller wave up, the fractal property for a market is well know fact, because of this EW use a wave degree and this is another thing that confuse ppl because each one is using the degree on its own way
http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics1.htm

100k vol bars chart
http://yfrog.com/oehwdjp
http://a.yfrog.com/img878/4012/hwdj.th.png (http://twitter.yfrog.com/oehwdjp)

the spike above 32 USD is what many consider the wave [1] well this is a assumption is only safe wau to label this wave [1] is only when gets confirmed that means it needs a wave [3] to go above the [1]  
since the assumption is wave [1] to 32USD the wave [2] is down at 2USD again a assumption based on another one
since we assume that wave [2] ended at 2 USD we are in a wave [3] and this wave [3] is formed by 12345 wave since is fractal and we are on a wave 5 inside the wave[3]

¿well all this remain in the air until the price goes above 32USD? yes and no the 32 USD check is only for the wave [1] confirmation

since the market is fractal each degree have its own check points
if the price fall under wave 4 then the wave [3] is invalid
if the wave [3] is invalid then is also wave[2] at 2 USD is invalid and wave [2] is not over
if the price goes above wave 3 then the wave 5 is valid and this wave 5 needs to end above 32 USD

if this start to drop is likely to get the first stop at 11,75 if 15,40 gets taken out a new H is made and next stop should be at 34USD (wave 2 value + wave 1 value= the most likely value for wave 3)

http://yfrog.com/eshmfxp
http://a.yfrog.com/img532/3702/hmfx.th.png (http://twitter.yfrog.com/eshmfxp)

IF the price go below 16 USD this are more likely bounce levels

http://yfrog.com/nv7xlmp
http://a.yfrog.com/img859/8669/7xlm.th.png (http://twitter.yfrog.com/nv7xlmp)

I concur with this analysis.

most likely count for this push

http://yfrog.com/h8sknwp
http://a.yfrog.com/img620/9705/sknw.th.png (http://twitter.yfrog.com/h8sknwp)

doji on top rally near resistance on wedge ofc the blame is for apple for losing 12% value in a day (63 USD per share)


told you so :P

imo will end up doing something like this

http://yfrog.com/gzfy3lp
http://a.yfrog.com/img611/2075/fy3l.th.png (http://twitter.yfrog.com/gzfy3lp)

B confirmed, C possible targets
http://yfrog.com/mncdkhcp

http://a.yfrog.com/img815/6623/cdkhc.th.png (http://twitter.yfrog.com/mncdkhcp)

possible 12345 scenario
http://yfrog.com/h89dgrsp
http://a.yfrog.com/img620/2758/9dgrs.th.png (http://twitter.yfrog.com/h89dgrsp)