Bitcoin Forum

A while ago i did a publicly feeded trade, sold bitcoins as a result of this poll https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=121174.msg1305375#msg1305375

If i had done no trades i would been better off lol. I ended up liquidating about 50% of my holdings. But it was still quite entertaning to just trust the decentralized forum consensus.

This time around regarless of shortterm overbought technicals im really tempted to move all my savings to bitcoin, mainly because of this: http://bitcoinmagazine.com/bitcoin-price-breaks-15-4-august-2012-high/

Should i, or should i not ? please post whatever you find most convincing.
Once again i'll submit to whatever the poll tells me to. ie: If 75% say yes it means i'll allocate 75% of my avail resources to bitcoin.

If you ask such questions and don't have balls to take this responsibility, better stay away from trading at all.

i voted yes  :P! I would never, I have two kids so i can't handle that much risk but ... if you have the balls it potentially VERY rewarding, but super risky ( especially now that bitcoin is pushing to a new all time high)

I recommend putting 50% in right away and keeping 50% on the side, if bitcoin drops alot, you can pick up cheap coins and lower your avg price.

make damn sure your wallet is secure ...

I've heard Falkvinge won big on such a move.

Do you like to gamble with your savings? It is historically true that the value of bitcoin, and almost everything else, retraces as it finds new value. A better strategy, in my opinion, would be to buy in small chunks over time. That way, in the unlikely event that price rises continuously, you are still profiting. However, in the more likely event that price drops before rising again, you won't lose so much because you will have better entry points. It is a more balanced approach. Balance is smart when you're talking about your savings.

I did exactly this at $5. I do not regret it.

If your total savings amount is something you could regain pretty easily and you don't need it, sure, you could bet with everything.
Otherwise, I personally wouldn't do it.  The risk for it to become worthless is too big imho.  Of course, its a decision everyone has to make for him/herself.

EDIT: I think my answer sounded too positive, I generally wouldn't recommend anyone to go all-in on bitcoins.

I do, but I think long term even if it's for my kids. I've been waiting 30 years for an opportunity like Bitcoin. What makes it different than all the other fads and scams, is that it is so much more than a technology. Technology can be monopolized and regulated, but an open sourced math algorithm is just too ridiculously intangible for anyone to control. Bitcoin is the slipperiest pig anyone would ever try to catch. It will be like watching the Keystone Cops trying to regulate Bitcoin. I'm all in just for the laughs if nothing else.

No

Don't put all eggs in one basket, it's not very smart.

Hear hear.

http://www.cfoinnovation.com/system/files/cfo/black_swan_white_swans.jpg

If you are young enough to recover if it goes up in smoke tomorrow, then by all means, go for it. I have 85% of my holdings in btc, bought in stagggered increments between 5-11 and I'm pretty happy I did.

That being said, we are at an acceleration point right now in the curve and this is when all of the emotional money is coming in. After we hit 20+, I'm guessing we will correct to somewhere around this neighborhood. So either do it quick like or wait for the correction.

No, never invest what you cannot lose.

Never put all your eggs in one basket.

I know the phrase: "Only invest money that you can burn imediantly without any regrets."

I mean, if you lose a big part or everything, i doesn't have to intimidate your lifestyle or family. BitCoin has a risk to lose a big part of your money. It's a high-risk investment. The fact that someone does the right decision in the past and buy bitcoins at 5$ or 10$ is not indicator for doing any success in this investment. Tomorrow the worth can be down 20%, tomorrow the worth can be up 20%. Bitcoin is a high volantile.

The right way is to spread your investment. Put something in bitcoin, put something in stock, put something in real estate and put something in gold or platinum or something.

But it's also the fact, that sometimes i doesn't hear on my own advise and i'm playing risky, but not with all my money...

greetz
DM

The wise man puts all his eggs in one basket and watches the basket. -Andrew Carnegie

Anyone who cannot cope with mathematics is not fully human. At best he is a tolerable subhuman who has learned to wear shoes, bathe and not make messes in the house.
--Lazarus Long, "Time Enough for Love", (Robert A. Heinlein)

i'm skeptical about 'price-averaging'. given a stochastic market, aren't the chances that you end up with an average price higher than whatever initial buy-in price equal to the chances that you can achieve a lower average price?

i understand that large buys are prone to slippage, and that is one advantage of multiple smaller bids, but does the technique really average dollar cost?

OP,

Yes! And go be homeless for now!

Yes, it's okay with me if you do that.  I don't really have time to watch over you and see if you're making a good decision or not, but I don't mind if you do it. :P

So you're letting total strangers decide what you're going to do with your savings?  Unbelievable.

Sure !

Unless you can afford to lose it all over night !

I mean, In my humble opinion, BTC will reach 100$  (before,  ((if it does anytime)) go back to 10$) !

I do invest any $ I can spare on BTC, each month.

Diversify, while Bitcoin is a fantastic idea that I'm optimistic about there are things that can go wrong and you also have to take into account incredibly basic things security wise like hacking, nothing much happens now but I guarantee you if you keep a large amount of Bitcoins on your PC with an internet connection someone will eventually sniff it out in the future and you'll be one of those people rage posting on this forum about how you lost all your Bitcoins because you didn't keep them offline.

From the conversation everyone seems to be having I would definitely pick Bitcoin over bullshit like government treasuries or paper money.

Yes, but the question is if you can cash out once it reaches $USD 100, are there going to be any buyers? Will you put it all for sale on an exchange like MTGox? Can you trust them with a big chunck of your savings? How will you get your money out?

And if you cash out, do you want to put it in gold or silver or FRN? Or back into more BTC?

I think the best outcome of this experiment for you in the long term would be if the poll said yes; you then followed it, invested all and subsequently lost it all.  I am not saying this out of malice but because my fear is the more times this kind of thing works for you the more likely you are to think it's a good idea.  If a sharp shock is what it would take you to realise how crazy this plan is then that is what I wish for you.

Unfortunately for you I suspect if the majority said yes and you did follow the advice you would do very well from it if you were prepared to ride out subsequent temporary dips.  But there are also some circumstances the consequence of which would be a non-recovering plummeting Bitcoin value in relation to FRNs.

Some more reasons not to base your decision on the poll results:

• I suspect a significant number of those on this forum whose judgement you may most highly value won't participate.
• Those who do may vote in a way that serves their best interest or purely out of mischief
• As some have pointed out there is no indication in the OP as to your personal circumstances e.g. whether you have dependents, what the ratio of these savings v. the your income (i.e. how long would it take to save the same again), how you personally deal with risk both for your emotional well being for the duration of the highest risk period and for the likelihood of your sticking with your decision if/when the going gets tough.

May I strongly suggest you add a third option to your poll to say:
"Don't be so ridiculous.  Do what you need to do to learn enough about the subject to make your own informed judgement and more importantly do what you need to do to trust your own judgement over random others'."

That's where my vote would go.

looks like you'll only put 35% according to the poll... probably a good thing.

I will give you one of the best advices out there: never go full retard, man.

Yes and make sure you buy at full leverage too!  ;D

I hope it is clear I am joking.

If you did it a month or two ago you would not have regretted the decision, I don't feel like coins are going up much more they went up to fast.

Yes you would, markets are unpredictable on the short term and in a buy and hold scheme allocating all your net worth to one single asset exposes you to two risks:

1) People make mistakes and your analysis could have been incorrect. Spreading your wealth across multiple assets and asset classes makes it exponentially more unlike that a mistake in your analysis casues your entire net worth to evaporate.
2) Markets are irrational and can remain irrational for a very long time while humans have quite a limited lifespan. Spreading investments also helps alleviate this risk.

Of course you shouldn't spread too thin because you are sacrificing return by spreading.

Remember the two rules of investing:

1) Do not lose money
2) Do not lose money

A percentage-wise drop in price needs a larger percentage-wise rise to compensate.

I have gambled with my savings and lost before, and believe me its not a happy place to be. Now, for myself, I am reasonably sure that in a years time Bitcoin will be up between 50 and 150% and there is little else that you could invest in that would bring you that return. And I would say little so certain as well.  

But the nature of investments are that everyone is trying to work the magic, and because of this, things are not always what they seem. Risk is hard to assess, you need to include risk of swindle as well as risk of failure. Mass public opinion often turns out to be 100% wrong. My opinion for what its worth is that bitcoin is pretty solid, but be aware that it has suffered massive drops in value before, and if you happen to buy just before one of those your savings will be in trouble. Put everything into Bitcoin? No, do not do that. Its an experiment, and its not even your experiment. Keep some of your savings elsewhere and then in the very unlikely event that something happens to bitcoin, you will not be a completely broken man.

Thats my 2 cents.

yep, he wants a millibit

Spaceman_Spiff, you are correct about my signature, fixed that!!

Yes I do. I've sold my house and been buying at $5, $10 and $13 but I'm a reckless student now so I can afford to lose it all.  ;D

I did some mistake daytrading so now I'm only buying and holding.

Never invest what you can't afford to lose. If you're risk adverse try to diversify especially if you have a family to feed, a mortgage or near retirement. Even if I invested some money with BTCST and GLBSE I've been lucky enough to withdraw just in time. This taught me that most bitcoins should stay untouched on a paper wallet. Now I'm keeping away from all "investing" opportunity denominated in bitcoins.

I was pretty lucky to widthraw most of my coins from bitcoinica right before they got hacked, and lost only about 70BTC. That taught me to keep them to myself. Bitcoin is very risky investment by itself, so no need to invest them further, especially when price is rising more than 100% per year. Just by holding them I'm getting more than enough for me.

It will likely take some sort of black swan event in order for Bitcoin to reach some of the numbers being predicted here in this thread and elsewhere on the forums.  If you subscribe to this, just read Taleb's book, he even tells you what percentage of your investment portfolio should be allocated toward black swan events. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

But by that logic you're 50% likely to lose money as you are to make money in any investment, in which case investing is pointless.

Dollar cost averaging just provides a simple way to buy more when it's cheap and less when it's more expensive, without having to spend your whole life doing analysis, or beating yourself up when you call the bottom wrong.

Thanks for introducing me to the 'black swan event' concept.  I'm far from understanding it properly but reckon it's worth getting Taleb's book to check it out properly (would you recommend the original 2004 book -which I like the idea of because it was prior to the 2008 financial crisis - or the later 'The Black Swan'?).  It sounds to me like one of those concepts which at first seems to describe nothing new but could well be a concept that draws to itself enough distinct characteristics so as to give the concept the power to allow us to see and understand certain things better.

Your use of it in the case of Bitcoin is intriguing me in that you're saying 'It will likely take some sort of black swan event in order for Bitcoin to reach [high] numbers'.  An example from the Wikipedia entry of black swan events is the rise of the internet yet it is also talking about these things from the perspective of 'the observer'.  To those who were around the net and playing with html in 1996 I would say the rise of the internet was not a black swan event (it was neither one prior to that because it hadn't had the global impact nor since because to those who were around its rise was not unexpected).

I'm guessing if Bitcoin rises as the internet did, with respect to the financial and political worlds who know very little about it, it will indeed be seen to have been a black swan event, yet to many of us here now there would be no major surprises were it to become massive and have huge implications on the way the financial and political worlds work.  And should it do so then Bitcoin being valued at $100 and $1,000 USD are merely markers predicted and expected to be passed along the way.

From this perspective I would say it's getting to the stage where a black swan event such as large-scale unprecedented actions by financial/political powers or out-of-the-blue technologies would be required to prevent this from happening.

Again, I stress I am new to the concept but from what I do understand I read the Bitcoin situation very differently from you so would appreciate any further comment you'd like to make on it with respect to the black swan theory.

It all depends on your perception of what is more likely. I, for one do not believe it would at all be unreasonable for bitcoin to either:

1. Be 1000/btc +
2. To fail and lose all of its value

Therefore, I do not believe that this analogy fits into the possibilities for bitcoin. Both are almost equally as likely, it just depends on whether corruption and existing power will win out over the possibility of the new and the people.

What percentage does he suggest?

I'm not intending to say I think one is more likely than the other (although it's not hard to guess which my money's on).  In terms of black swan events though, as far as I can see nothing other than 'more of the same' is required for Bitcoin to continue on a trajectory towards widespread adoption whereas something else (either one of the possibilities being talked about or something entirely different and unforeseen) would be required for Bitcoin to fail and lose all of its value.

One of the characteristics of black swan events (as I understand it from the Wikipedia entry) is that it's not easy to calculate odds of an event (not a specific event but any event that would have the outcome being assessed) occurring.  I don't think one of these is necessary for Bitcoin to succeed to the extent implied in CurbsideProphet's post whereas I do for it to fail.

I can't remember who it was said 'All big decisions are made with insufficient data' - the argument being if there was sufficient data it wouldn't be that big a decision!  

y = 100x -15(1-x) =0
Gives x = 0.0148

So if (1) and (2) are the options the chance of (2) needs to be at least 1.5% to be profitable. If the target price for 2 is larger than $1k smaller percentages are possible.

Do you believe the chance of Bitcoin failing is larger than 98.5%?

I'm guessing less than 10%

If you feel you have good reasons and evidence that a certain 'surprising-to-other-people' thing will happen I don't think it's really right to call it a black swan. Plus, even if you are just like "Oh, that would be unlikely" that doesn't make it a black swan. We know monetary revolutions happen. We know technology can change how payments are made. Plus we know that normal people are willing to use bitcoin. So the 'bitcoin revolution' will just be more of the same.

Bitcoin isn't a black swan. It's more like an albino squirrel  :P

Getting investment advice here about investing in bitcoin is terribly biased. Tread carefully.

In which direction? According to the poll its biased against putting all of his savings in.

Most of the comments here have been pretty level headed.

In my opinion, if you personally believe bitcoin is going to be the commodity/money of the future, then by all means invest every spare cent you have in it.

If you have doubts, then don't.

That isn't the bias of the poll that is the result of the poll. You can't really tell from a result which direction the bias is in unless there is unanimity, then you can rule out bias in the opposite direction.

If you don't know wtf to do and people at 'the bitcoin forum' are telling you not to then maybe you should not.

I read the 2008 version.  I think either version you will glean the basic premise of the concept.  


I think you need to take a more macro perspective.  A black swan event is a rare event that cannot be predicted by trends.  This doesn't mean no one can predict a black swan ahead of time, it just means the vast majority of the population does not see it coming.  The reason I attribute the rise in BTC price to a black swan event is because most people here subscribe to the theory of a major fiat disruption or breakdown.  That would be a considerable black swan event.

Or it could be similar to the internet, a revolutionary piece of technology that is slowly adopted over time.  The point is not really to try and predict what the event will be (as by definition they are nearly impossible to predict) but to acknowledge that these events do occur throughout history and invest accordingly.

He suggests what he calls a "barbell" strategy where one is better off investing at the extreme ends of the spectrum, so hyper-conservative and hyper-aggressive at the same time.  He argues that investing in medium risk investments is pointless because of the difficulty in computing risk.  If I were to turn that into percentages, I would say for the hyper-aggressive he's advocating 10%-20%.

Again, this is my interpretation of the book.  It's better if you read it yourself and adapt its strategies (if you agree with the author) to your investing strategies accordingly.

Interesting. So 20% in BTC (on the off-chance it takes off), 80% in precious metals (safe as houses) and zero in stocks, bonds, T-bills, etc.  (too middle-of-the road).

Works for me.

if this is true, just buy houses.

And rent them out for income instead of just storing gold which pays you nothing.

Would you invest 100% of your savings in one company on the share market?  Bitcoin is no different.  I know it's all smiles at the moment as we've seen a massive ramp up in price from $2 to $16, but consider being on the other end of it buying in at $32 and seeing it drop to $2.

Interesting variety of opinions :)

I guess this poll would have been much more bullish had i asked this same question when bitcoin was at 30$, before the big exchange hacks and before the ponzi scams ;)



If that one company was the only company in the world that had a realistic solution to a very big problem, i absolutely would.

I've been involved in ecommerce for quite a few years. One of the most depressing thing about it is that consumers pay a very high price, because the current online-transaction systems are so easily exploitable. By an estimate, in 2008 online fraud had grown to 4billion USD, today this figure is likely only to grow exponentially. http://www.practicalecommerce.com/articles/996-Chart-of-the-Week-Online-Fraud-Cost-Merchants-4-Billion-in-2008 Especially when added, the post 2008 crisis obsessive regulations on financial institutions, the hidden cost of fraud, regulations, and so on is only going up. My own little business has an operating margin of just 1%, but the "spread" for my clients is ±30% (primary due to fraud).

Bitcoin seems to be the creature, that appears just crazy enough to be able to solve it. But the issue remains that most businesses as well as consumers still need exchanges to pay their bills (in other currencies than bitcoins), and exchanges are the point where the fraud will continue to happen, hence the lowcost bitcoin is still not so low cost for most people. Wide adaption would solve this, or perhaps bitcoin is just too crazy of a creature for wide adaption.

Bitcoin's fate is binary, and what is your saving's purpose, if the purpose is provide future income, then no, do not invest 100%, if the purpose is to speculate ( and accept the fail if it happens), then I think it is fine. Prepare yourself psychologically first

guys, the "black swan" is bitcoin failing.

the "normal mode" for bitcoin is to go up up up ;)

Gold can also be rented out, albeit not for trivial amounts:
http://www.kitco.com/lease.chart.html
http://neilski.typepad.com/chicago_gold_and_silver_i/2012/12/the-big-lie-that-gold-cannot-earn-revenue.html

Can "someone" put 100% of their savings in Bitcoin?  Sure if they are young, and can handle the risk.

Should YOU?  No. You have no conviction.  You sold off based on a poll.  If you had 100% of your wealth in BTC you would be the proverbial weak hand and likely lock in a loss in any crash.

Ask yourself what is the most amount I can keep in BTC and simply not care.  Maybe it is 5% of your wealth?  Maybe it is only a handful of coins.  Whatever the amount is you shouldn't be holding more than that.

if you have no information about price direction, then yes, you are no more likely to win than to lose. that is the point.

'investments' are usually made with a positive expected return, so that's different. what im trying to say here, is that without knowing anything about price direction, your chances of getting a lower mean price through cost-averaging are no better than getting a higher mean price. is that wrong?

No, you idiot. You absolutely should NOT allocate all of your savings to Bitcoins.

In fact, don't put any amount into BTC that you can't afford to lose.

Good points.  Also, don't hold any USD unless you're prepared to lose half of its value in the next decade or two.

 ;D Took the words right out of my mouth.

Where was that "WHY I AM PUTTING ALL MY MONEY AND ALL I CAN BORROW INTO BITCOIN" again? IIRC I read it on the day of the 32 USD peak.

That doesn't mean you have to put it all in at one time. If you had started on that day and invested evenly over the next year, you would be way ahead today.

I did but of course not 100% and can say I definitely do not regret it.Bought BTC last year sold at 15 this year and bought back in at 13 and have kept ever since.

MY question is "should I borrow 10k from my bank at 5% a year and put it all into bitcoin?"

This is just being a nit (http://www.poker-king.com/dictionary/nit/). Its relative to how much money you have, and your life situation. If you have 10k to your name and you are 20 years old, putting all your money into bitcoin is not some wreckless idea, it's taking a shot at retiring before 40 (like a pirate) or losing 10k and spending a few years working to recover it.

NO.  You should never leverage yourself to invest in speculative investments. 

The only reason you should do so is if you can satisfy at bare minimum, the following criteria:

1) No credit card debt

2) A savings account with at least 6 months to 1 years worth of living expenses

3) A decent retirement plan set up that you are regularly contributing to and will fulfill your needs when you retire

There's probably more depending on your risk tolerance but you should have at least these three things squared away before you start borrowing.  This is even more true if you have dependents (children).

Do you know Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger? Well, they had a third partner: Rick Guerin. The difference according to Buffet between Rick and Charlie and himself? rick wanted to get rich quick and used leverage. This wiped him out (in fact he needed to sell his  Berkshire Hathaway stock to Buffet at under $40 a piece while thse are >$147000). His lesson: Do not use leverage PERIOD

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmmIbrKDYbw&feature=player_embedded

If you are young, maybe.
Use ~25% for Litecoin, since you can buy larger amounts.

Money is not always equally valuable to a specific person. Your last bit of money can become a lot more valuable compared to before. There might come a sudden need to pay for something, and in this case, having something can be worth more than probably having a lot more.

You suddenly get sick for an entire year. Out of the blue, some stupid infection, overdid it at work, whatever. Turns out 100% of your funds are inaccessible or gone. Good luck.

It is not a good risk to take. Not worth it. Look around and you'll see the people who managed to get back up: they had a backup plan. It's in the word itself, that's what it's good for: getting back up. You should always have some sort of backup plan, because things do go wrong at some point. None of us knows the future with certainty.

The poll is likely not representative. Trolls will add to the "yes" bar just because they like the drama should it go bad, or they want to see people make "OMG NO" posts.

Luckily healthcare is "free" where I live.  ;D

Yawn. Sell this to the 401K generation who lost everything they worked for in the stock market, and now won't be able to retire until they're 80. Can't believe they're still teaching people to think this way. You've got to be agressive when you're young. I would say to OP, most definitely, ride bitcoin up and then re-evaluate every step of the way.

Oh I'm sorry.  Yes, 2nd mortgage your house, convert everything to Bitcoin, then play the 50% at SatoshiDice.  Better?

I wanted to say "Yes!" just to be funny, but then I considered you could be very naive and asking this question in sincere honesty- not knowing the bitcoin crowd very well yet and thus in grave danger.

The answer is NO!

Indeed, just by calling it your "savings" hints to me that you aren't a person with tons of extra money to spare. In which case I would advise you to put absolutely none of your savings into bitcoin.

If you want to put money into bitcoin, I suggest you do something like go take on a second/third job- something that provides you with income beyond what you need to live on and save at your current rate, and then put all the money you earn from that into bitcoin.

Remember the old maxim: don't invest more then you can afford to lose. Because chances are- especially if you're new to this- you will loose it.

the earlier you learn a lesson of money management, the less money you lose. so yes, go ahead invest 100% now, be smarter next time. otherwise you don't learn and make the mistake next time you see an "opportunity of a lifetime" and your savings are considerably larger.

No, unless your entire savings are in the range of $100-1000.

Yes ofcourse. I donot see why not. Make sure you have a stop loss order, after you have gathered your BTC.

It worked the hard way for me too.

Should i allocate 100% of my savings to bitcoin?

Generally, no.

However, Warren Buffett said: "Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense to those who know what they are doing."

If you really know what you are doing and understand your risk profile then by all means keep 100% of your liquid assets or savings in Bitcoin. Most people who did so during last 4 years did rather very well indeed. Too bad that "past performance is not indicative of future results". YMMV.

Yes.

If you have positive equity in the form of a hose etc, even more yes.

Why are you suggesting this?

YES do it.

100%
Another question is how to buy it (some chunks or sth?)

5 % pa, some inflation.

Bitcoin prospected to go up faster. How fast? Your guess.

Bitcoin downside risk? Low, in my opinion.

With equity, you have your creditors at arms lengths distance. That is personal room for navigation.

No. think eggs and baskets.

Also, don't hold any EUR or other government controlled fiat currencies or overvalued gold or silver.

The future is plastics.  ;)

That actually makes sense.

Actually it is a reckless idea.

Here is a scenario:

a) Loses a job.
b) An exchange like mtgox freezes his account. Pick any reason here, I have seen a lot happening in a bitcoin world.
c) He's screwed short term, because he has ZERO savings.

Hell fuck no.  My recommendation is, as always, 5%. Anyone can stand to lose 5% and bitcoin can still tank hard to 0. But at the same time there is so much upside that a 5% investment is likely to become significant.

As a disclaimer, I did put in a large percentage of my saving into bitcoin last March, and due to btc price appreciation and very little rebalancing, it's now dominating my portfolio.

Because the outcome of your investment doesn't necessarily effect me, my recommendation is:

Go Big or Go Home(less).

Bet it all on Bitcoin and let the wheels of fate decide your outcome  :D

If he does a small amount of research and has half a brain he will know what he is doing and can easily secure his wealth without relying on a third party like MtGox.

... in fact, thats not any different to depositing your money in your local bank these days.

Since this thread started Bitcoin has seen a what, 50% ROI? I wonder what the OP did?

hope he listened to the smart 37% and went all-in on BTC :) he may have all eggs in one basket now but these are some huge eggs.

what goes up, must come ... you can finish the sentence.

i tried to resist saying this because i get flamed.. but we are reaching bubble territory again.
almost daily percentage gains is just not normal.

Precisely. We're waaayyy above normal in terms of % increase per day/week...and I'm sure there are whales out there getting ready to dump into the market. Seems like a good time since we haven't seen this price in almost 2 years.

Past performance does not predict ... you can finish the sentence. A lot has changed in 18 months. Bitcoin is still developing.

If you discount short term noise and look at yearly chart instead of 15 minute one it is all not so outrageous actually. Bitcoin is young, small cap and volatile, there is nothing THAT impossible in this level of performance. About 600% in a year, not bad, outstanding even. However for comparison on many occasions various companies with much larger market cap have performed similarly well.

BTW there is a simple definition of a bubble. It is when a market goes up a lot and then collapses and does not reach new high ever or at least for very very long time (many decades at least).

Do you really think that right now Bitcoin is in a bubble and will crash and then it will not ever go over 26$ ?

 Look man, its simply a gamble. And as in every gamble (if you are not addicted), you spend just as much as you are prepared to loose. If we knew the answer to this, we would all be rich by now  ;D

I think he said he was going to allocate whatever % of "Yes" votes he received to Bitcoin.  Whether he followed through, I don't know.

What the end of the story?

Do you put all your saving @ $15/BTC  ?

Life is nice.

I agree, considering I started my investments back when coins were $10 :)

If you have put 20% into BTC in December (price was $13,5) then now you still have 80% of your saving and you are holding more in BTC than your saving was (70/13.3 *0.2=1,03) . ... Allocating 100% of your saving is INSANE !!! Just allocate what you can afford to lose. (1-20%)