Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: notig on February 03, 2013, 02:14:31 AM



Title: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: notig on February 03, 2013, 02:14:31 AM
Go!

I'm going to say 99 dollars per BTC.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: adamstgBit on February 03, 2013, 02:16:34 AM
5$  ;)


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Melbustus on February 03, 2013, 02:17:50 AM
1/4ozAU / BTC


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: evoorhees on February 03, 2013, 02:19:51 AM
Between $200-$2000


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Bowjob on February 03, 2013, 02:20:30 AM
1000.32 I am six significant figures sure.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: smoothie on February 03, 2013, 02:48:17 AM
2010 - $0.50
2011 - $5.00
2012 - $13.00
2013 - $50.00
2014 - $100.00
2015 - $200.00
2016 - $400.00
2017 - $800.00
2018 - $1600.00

So my guess is at least $1600 per btc


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: ArticMine on February 03, 2013, 03:08:10 AM
Over 10000 USD or possibly even over 100000 USD by 2018 are by far the most probable. If Bitcoin does not reach 1% market share by 2018 it is because it has failed drastically, so I will also give a small but finite probability of way under 0.01 USD.

As for the range of 0.01 USD to 10000 USD very unlikely.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Zangelbert Bingledack on February 03, 2013, 03:19:22 AM
75% probability of $0.

25% probability of $10,000+.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: chriswilmer on February 03, 2013, 03:20:30 AM
Over 10000 USD or possibly even over 100000 USD by 2018 are by far the most probable. If Bitcoin does not reach 1% market share by 2018 it is because it has failed drastically, so I will also give a small but finite probability of way under 0.01 USD.

As for the range of 0.01 USD to 10000 USD very unlikely.

I have to say, I kind of fall into this line of thinking.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Luceo on February 03, 2013, 03:53:41 AM
75% probability of $0.

25% probability of $10,000+.

This is probably spot on.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Bowjob on February 03, 2013, 05:28:41 AM
75% probability of $0.

25% probability of $10,000+.

This is probably spot on.

That's basically suggesting all or nothing, which seems like the least likely scenario in a short 5 years.

Those odds are a delicious gamble though.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: goldlyre on February 03, 2013, 05:58:28 AM
I wish to get on a time machine in order to have a look at price of bitcoin in 2018.

http://img1.soufun.com/bbs/2011_11/30/11/sh/1322625422439_000.jpg


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: evolve on February 03, 2013, 08:14:05 AM
5$  ;)

This. Or in the midst of a double digit bubble (like now)...boom and bust, just like the american economy.





Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Foxpup on February 03, 2013, 08:19:00 AM
3 oz AU


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: FreeMoney on February 03, 2013, 08:25:02 AM
75% probability of $0.

25% probability of $10,000+.

This is probably spot on.

That's basically suggesting all or nothing, which seems like the least likely scenario in a short 5 years.

Bitcoin has gone from essentially not a money to here in about 3 years. It's gunna be happening for real in 5 or never.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Jutarul on February 03, 2013, 09:01:11 AM
I say if people quote bitcoin prices they should denominate it in gold. USD won't exist for long.
Currently 1 BTC = 0.4 gram of gold
Thus BTC market cap is about 4 tons of gold. Assuming a max of 21 million coins and equal wealth distribution between bitcoin and gold, we're likely to see a BTC market cap of around 8,000 tons of gold (*/ 2), which would price a BTC at 400 gram of gold, or 21,200 USD by TODAYS gold price.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: zoinky on February 03, 2013, 09:03:47 AM
I think we will be close to a 5 billion dollar market cap by 2018.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: TraderTimm on February 03, 2013, 09:37:42 AM
I think it will defy any attempt to predict its true value.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: phatsphere on February 03, 2013, 09:46:22 AM
I want to remind everyone posting here USD values, that it isn't sure if the USD is still around in 5 years. (same goes for the EUR, with a higher probablility). So, maybe some more general measurements are necessary AU is an example.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Vladimir on February 03, 2013, 11:37:19 AM
Now this is my kind of thread (as opposed to "Bitcoin price in 5 days"). LOL

Optimistically, parity with 1 oz of gold in 5 years. But it is possible that it will be much more than that.




Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: proudhon on February 03, 2013, 12:11:12 PM
~$50


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Vladimir on February 03, 2013, 12:42:08 PM
Another stab at it.

100 000 000 000 000 USD (one hundred trillion US dollars), give or take one-two zeroes, lol

P.S. BTW the guess in my post above still stands i.e. both 100 000 000 000 USD and 1 oz of gold could be possible at the same time.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: flipperfish on February 03, 2013, 12:44:14 PM
I want to remind everyone posting here USD values, that it isn't sure if the USD is still around in 5 years. (same goes for the EUR, with a higher probablility). So, maybe some more general measurements are necessary AU is an example.
I think most statements involving USD assume a constant USD value, even if that's not the reality. So what actually is meant is the value of today's USD.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Mageant on February 03, 2013, 12:44:35 PM
I say around $1000. That is in today's dollar purchasing value.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Chaz on February 03, 2013, 01:25:46 PM
US$6,189 in 2013 dollars  8)


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Bowjob on February 03, 2013, 01:31:40 PM
 :o Whatever it is you guys are smoking, stop. The correct value is $9421.02 on Feb 4, 2018


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: muyuu on February 03, 2013, 01:43:18 PM
$100 in today's purchasing power.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: piramida on February 03, 2013, 03:36:06 PM
exactly 1 BTC minus exchange commision! :)


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: proudhon on February 03, 2013, 03:51:53 PM
$50 in 2018's purchasing power.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: johnyj on February 03, 2013, 10:56:40 PM
No, by that time, there is no other currency, no exchange rate 8)


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: CurbsideProphet on February 03, 2013, 11:05:46 PM
It's very possible in 5 years time there could even be a war within Bitcoin itself.  The problem with the 1MB size limit for example and how to deal with it.  As problems and solutions come up, I could see forks in Bitcoin as a possibility.  Some people go with Bitcoin-y for a certain reason while others go with Bitcoin-x for other reasons.

If that's the case then the early, pre-fork Bitcoins would be more valuable as they could be used on all chains.  An early adopter bonus, if you will.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: johnyj on February 03, 2013, 11:16:45 PM
It's very possible in 5 years time there could even be a war within Bitcoin itself.  The problem with the 1MB size limit for example and how to deal with it.  As problems and solutions come up, I could see forks in Bitcoin as a possibility.  Some people go with Bitcoin-y for a certain reason while others go with Bitcoin-x for other reasons.

If that's the case then the early, pre-fork Bitcoins would be more valuable as they could be used on all chains.  An early adopter bonus, if you will.

If there is really a fork with unlimited transaction size, then most will follow it without questioning, people are ignorant, as long as their coins are valid ;D


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: 01BTC10 on February 03, 2013, 11:19:03 PM
The oracle say realistically between $0.00000099 and $99999999.99!

http://www.therecycler.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/crystal-ball.jpg


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Vladimir on February 03, 2013, 11:45:10 PM
It's very possible in 5 years time there could even be a war within Bitcoin itself.  The problem with the 1MB size limit for example and how to deal with it.  As problems and solutions come up, I could see forks in Bitcoin as a possibility.  Some people go with Bitcoin-y for a certain reason while others go with Bitcoin-x for other reasons.

If that's the case then the early, pre-fork Bitcoins would be more valuable as they could be used on all chains.  An early adopter bonus, if you will.

If there is really a fork with unlimited transaction size, then most will follow it without questioning, people are ignorant, as long as their coins are valid ;D

It's not a bug, it is a feature.

P.S. Ignorance, is definitely a factor with Bitcoin, however.



Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: notig on February 04, 2013, 01:17:16 AM
It's very possible in 5 years time there could even be a war within Bitcoin itself.  The problem with the 1MB size limit for example and how to deal with it.  As problems and solutions come up, I could see forks in Bitcoin as a possibility.  Some people go with Bitcoin-y for a certain reason while others go with Bitcoin-x for other reasons.

If that's the case then the early, pre-fork Bitcoins would be more valuable as they could be used on all chains.  An early adopter bonus, if you will.

If there is really a fork with unlimited transaction size, then most will follow it without questioning, people are ignorant, as long as their coins are valid ;D

It's not a bug, it is a feature.

P.S. Ignorance, is definitely a factor with Bitcoin, however.



is there a possibility of bitcoin not forking though?  Is the feature of the block size limit to make transactions more profitable to entice more miners once the bitcoins have been mined?


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: XxionxX on February 04, 2013, 02:30:43 AM
If the usd collapses $10k+

If not $500-$1000

If a major flaw is found in the code or encryption $0-$5


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: farfiman on February 04, 2013, 07:04:58 PM
I say if people quote bitcoin prices they should denominate it in gold. USD won't exist for long.
Currently 1 BTC = 0.4 gram of gold


I agree.  I don't give the dollar much chance of survival in 5 years ( well, the name could be the same but wouldn't be surprised if its worth 1/10 -  1/100 of what it is now.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: notig on November 04, 2017, 04:22:56 AM
It's very possible in 5 years time there could even be a war within Bitcoin itself.  The problem with the 1MB size limit for example and how to deal with it.  As problems and solutions come up, I could see forks in Bitcoin as a possibility.  Some people go with Bitcoin-y for a certain reason while others go with Bitcoin-x for other reasons.

If that's the case then the early, pre-fork Bitcoins would be more valuable as they could be used on all chains.  An early adopter bonus, if you will.

How prescient!


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: thecodebear on November 04, 2017, 07:22:01 AM
It's very possible in 5 years time there could even be a war within Bitcoin itself.  The problem with the 1MB size limit for example and how to deal with it.  As problems and solutions come up, I could see forks in Bitcoin as a possibility.  Some people go with Bitcoin-y for a certain reason while others go with Bitcoin-x for other reasons.

If that's the case then the early, pre-fork Bitcoins would be more valuable as they could be used on all chains.  An early adopter bonus, if you will.

How prescient!

haha wow nice find. I enjoyed seeing people's predictions. and then read that post and was like wow he was spot on 5 years ago!


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Granxis on November 04, 2017, 09:01:46 AM
It's very possible in 5 years time there could even be a war within Bitcoin itself.  The problem with the 1MB size limit for example and how to deal with it.  As problems and solutions come up, I could see forks in Bitcoin as a possibility.  Some people go with Bitcoin-y for a certain reason while others go with Bitcoin-x for other reasons.

If that's the case then the early, pre-fork Bitcoins would be more valuable as they could be used on all chains.  An early adopter bonus, if you will.

How prescient!
Five years ago, they made really accurate predictions, and what they say is not happening. the username gives us a clue."prophet" :)


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: AIRDROPSQUAD on November 04, 2017, 09:06:49 AM
Damn! Old thread. To much speculation, but now, it is become true. What about 5 year later (2017)? $1500??


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: Chris314 on November 04, 2017, 10:43:58 AM
:o Whatever it is you guys are smoking, stop. The correct value is $9421.02 on Feb 4, 2018

He may not be so far from the truth... Closer predicted value of the actual situation, but that supposes bitcoin will survive the upcoming fork.


Title: Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013
Post by: VuLDK on November 04, 2017, 12:47:30 PM
Go!

I'm going to say 99 dollars per BTC.
I think $15000  8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)