Bitcoin Forum

I have used the scientific method (hypothesis followed by experiment).

It's pretty simple actually: Every time I buy the price goes down. Every time I sell the price goes up. Last night I bought in with half my capital, so we should now see a period of stability ::)

My wife and I joke about this... happens like clockwork for me as well.  This is why I no longer attempt to day trade on BTC.

Whenever you go to a poker game, the first thing you do is try to identify the fish.  If you can't figure that out, you're the fish.

Guys, I've got some bad news for you.

You're the fish.

Big, fat fish.

Imagine one thing. Imagine what is MARKET. It consits of thousands participants which fight between themselves. With only one purpose: make money.

When you stay away from this battle - it is okay.

But since you open position - the WHOLE market with lots of people turn against you, become your enemy, thousands of people with swords run on you. You appear in the center of this battle.

You must not be negligent when opening position. You must have exact plan of your actions. Otherwise you will be burned.

Quoting in full because this needs to be said more often. The only thing I'd add is, once you have a plan, you need to ask yourself whether there's any objective reason to believe your plan is any good. The fewer reasons, the more likely it is you're just gambling. And gambling is fine, as long as you acknowledge that's what you're doing.

The best plan, of course, is to find a time machine and go buy some sub-dollar bitcoins.

Message me shortly before you buy or sell please.

So basically you're the real world George Costanza  ;)

I will shamelessly admit to non-purposefully being the fish.

Actually the episode where George gets inside trading advice, he ends up holding out while Jerry sold while the stock was plummeting, a week or so later George was rollin in money and smoking cigars.

I do daytrading with 0% Fees. I use bitcoin-24.com and trade with EUR.

BIG PROFIT!

lol really 0% fees?

yes 0% fees!

The $ trading market is almost dead. but the € trading works very very good!

 I daytrade in € and got a lot of profit!

Hah, I forgot about that episode.  I was actually thinking about the one where George realizes every decision in his life has been wrong and decides to do the opposite of what his intuition tells him to do.

Haha I figured, just felt like calling you out on a technicality since I saw that episode the other night haha.

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Best theory so far, I had exactly the same feeling for almost all financial transactions.

I must just be lucky, every time I buy three years later the price is way up.

Rounders was late-90's not 80's
1998

lol wtf?

i THINK your doing it wrong...  ;D

lol

Have you tried making your mind to sell and stop when you are about to hit the sell button. Every time I do that, the price goes up.  :D

Every time I start moving money towards bitcoin, the price jumps while I am waiting for my money to get to the exchange.

Thank you!  Please let us know when you are buying back in ....    ;)

lol

Okay, lets test my theory. I started a deposit to MtGox today, which means the price should rise between now and Feb 12th (when Dwolla says the transfer should be complete). Current price: 22.08 USD per BTC (45.3 mBTC per USD)

Will edit to show result of experiment.

Use Coinbase, they lock the price you pay, you just can't withdraw the bitcoins until your ACH deposit is complete.  They also take a commision, but if you're concerned about price fluctuation risk, the commision is relatively low.  The last time I bought some coins there, the market value of bitcoins went up more during the delay than the commision.

Alright, my funds just got to MtGox, and the price stands at 25.71 USD. That is a 16.4% increase in less than a week.

So my theory must be correct, the price is influenced by my intention to buy more.

its the other way around.
your intention to buy more is influenced by price moments.

So you are saying one action was influenced by a future action?

Well as it goes if you always buy when the price goes up chances are that sooner or later you'd buy near the top.

Haha yes.

Paul, in either case please warn in advance before cashing out. We will test whether or not the price would crash then.