Bitcoin Forum

So if Avalon delivered weeks ago, where is all the new traffic?

yeah
it's a good question...

Isn't that weird that only 1 person received the ASIC and he is apparently not using it?
... ?

http://youtu.be/WveEco2Rq2w

Just thinking that myself.  One confirmed delivery report for Avalon and a very slight increase in network hashrate.  Certainly does not look like anything really got delivered.  Hopefully BFL is not the same story.

Network hash rate is up 3.5 2.5 Ths/s and rising gradually daily.

Seems to me to be inline with ASIC's coming online a handful at a time.

i thought one person ordered most of batch 1, right?

maybe that person doesnt have theirs yet

I guess I wouldn't know as I don't have access to Avalons order list.

But if that is so it would seem plausible that they would only partial ship that one persons order in an attempt to keep the bandwidth distributed for as long as they can.

But that is all just conjecture.

What we do know is that the network hash rate has increased or at least the rate which blocks are being solved has increased which in turn has increased the hash rate estimate.
Sam

from all accounts batch one of avalons had 300 orders

300 x 68Ghash=20Thash

i know the 3 units that would be advertised to the community by the litecoin foundation, a well known blogger. and someone else (cant find much details on) arrived.

but the other 297.... hmmmmm

i was hoping/expecting a faster upclimb in hash rate. above anything ever experienced before.
http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate (http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate)
many GPU/FPGA miners got the hashrate up to 28Thash in december 2012 and just as the avalon news broke. so i was expecting a new high, over the 28Thash existent high.

i guess its a waiting game.

final thought:
the 2 high spots could have been avalon testing some ASIC units so the average 'high' could be around 24-25Thash, many variables/possibilities need to be calculated. EG FPGA/GPU miners may flock to other alt currencies and leave only ASIC miners with their 20Thash of combined power in the next few weeks

Well all 300 didn't/won't ship all at once.  They are hand carrying them to DHL a few a day.  At least that is what that one guy said when he announced that they started shipping.  So couple that with the CYN and it'll be a while before they all get delivered.

couple a day. id fit 5 in my car at a time and go back and forth every hour. getting atleast 50 (just 1 guy one car) released a day, so they are all out within the week.

just checked out their website (Shipping Time: Jan 20th – March 1st, 2013) = under 20 per day released (15 days to release(=300 units) + 15 days international shipping roughly(left over time for weekend considerations)).

so based on 14 day international shipping. and excluding weekends
20 units released january 20th would be arriving this week maximum -8th february (friday)
20 units released january 21st would be also arriving next week maximum - 11th february (monday)
20 units released january 22st would be also arriving next week week maximum -  12th february
ETC ETC

so lets give it a week and see if the hash rate increases (rough approximation of a 1Thash increase per weekday)

It's already been almost 3 weeks.

I'm not sure where you are seeing that:  http://bitcoincharts.com/bitcoin/

The hash-rate ??? looks steady to me.

The hash rate when Jeff Garzik received his Avalon was 21.47 Ths/s.  Today it is 24.13 Ths/s.  So that's a little more than 2.5Ths/s increase, or so it seems to me.  Granted that is far from an in depth analysis, I'm just looking at the number, which is down to 24.07 now.  One of the Avalons must have crashed :).
Sam

But before they claimed to ship it was at 25 - 30 TH.  I don't think the current network hash rate is indicative of ASIC in play.  Maybe they are, time will tell.  It just seems weird that so much time passed and none are running.

You may well be correct.  The little bump that I saw may well be GPU miners taking advantage of the good Bitcoin price at the moment.  I too thought that there would be a much greater bump in the pool hash rate by now because of the Avalons.

I think there could be small numbers coming on gradually.  At least I hope so.  I'd hate to think that Avalon only made 2 or 3 units.

What's more likely is that people are underestimating the time it takes to ship non-priority.  One thing I do not agree with however, is the decision to not release tracking numbers.  I wish there was a way to call up DHL and ask "Hey is there a package en-route to my house?  What's the ETA?"  Surely they of all people would know.

You mean release the tracking numbers to the general public or to the customers that bought them?

Did you order a Avalon?

FYI, UPS myChoice will email you a few days in advance that a package is coming to your house even if you've never received a tracking number.  Granted, it only works when UPS is the carrier and it's $80 a year IIRC.

I think you are underestimating how many of us have first hand experience in receiving packages from DHL on a weekly basis shipped from CN and HK

DHL is not non-priority

DHL Deutsche Post in Europe, now that is non-priority. 3 days tops.

DHL from HK is perfectly predicatable

BTCGuild increased by more than 1 Thash in last 24 hours.  :o
Is this a sign?

Funny you say that.  I am a really small time miner and mostly a lurker here, but I shut off all my stuff after the reward halving and waiting for my (BFL) ASIC hardware, but seeing BTC at $25 I turned my GPUs back on and trying to scrounge together more GPU mining hardware to run until difficulty skyrockets. I would guess I am not the only one.

yes it.s conform in many thread that it's ASIC MINEr doing startup test with the pool BTCGUILD more then 2Ths now  ;D

Until the difficulty shoots significantly above the ATH there is nothing to fuss about.