Bitcoin Forum

you know that spike from Nov to now? where it more than doubled? that is the halving priced in....

why? markets are forward looking, the halving is going to surprise exactly no one.

anyways daily volume is pathetic, I sold all my BTC again for a 2nd time.

Maybe I am wrong and it goes back to $1000, who knows, all I know is I am out with good profits again for 2nd time.

People said the same thing prior to the last halving event - that the halving was already priced in, as there was no significant rise in price leading up to or even during the actual halving event. We didn't see a significant rise in price until a few weeks or so after. Not saying this time will be the same. i'm just sayin...

If you were an adherent to the strong Efficient Market Hypothesis you'd say that it was always priced in.  It's totally not a surprise.  Any news that's known is already reflected in the price at any given moment--I don't believe in it that ardently but I think OP is right.

I don't think any one person can confidently say either way if it's priced in or not already. We'll just have to wait & see.

The halving is most certainly not priced in.  The price is being constricted by the giant bullish pennant pattern forming on the 1 year chart.  It is beautiful and the tip of the pennant should be right around when segwit is released.  Also, this lightning network stuff coming out sounds super bullish.  I've seen predictions of millions of transactions per second.

Bitcoin will be very powerful as these changes unfold along with the halving.  I am loading up big time.

No the halving is not already priced in, the demand in November was from Chinese exchanges reinstating direct bank deposits plus the MMM ponzi,
now we see just a shadow of those events. Chinese miners are draining the bid side on Huobi, and the wisest path is to correct and start again.
It's possible that the later increase in western exchanges' bid side to be the "pricing in", but if Huobi crashes they'll follow.
Right now volume is low, since it's a high risk to take sides, I see more risk to be long, and little reward (can reenter later if this breaks 470$, on a retracement).

I don't believe the block halving is already priced in right now. There is much more room for the price to go up to levels greater than $500 this year. I can agree that last weeks the trading volumes are very low and don't offer traders much satisfaction at the moment. Just have patience. We'll see the volatility return soon.

Same banker shills and random noobs keep posting the halving is priced in when it's not possible to be:

This price now from November is just pre halving whale accumulation.

Just wait until this shit really fucking starts.

I refuse to face your ridiculous proposition. We here, in the speculation forum, are nearly unanimous in our opinion that the halvening will take us to the moon.

Worst case, it might not double in price... but there are plenty of guaranteed profits to be had if you just buy nao.

I think it's a bit too early to say that as bitcoin tends to be too unpredictable. Perhaps the hype generated by the halving could bring in a price rise just days before it, or not. I'm sure profit taking wouldn't allow the price to go that far though as we've seen some significant dips recently.

What is killing the halving rally is the block size debate.  

In January, developer Mike Hearn wrote his Medium.com article blasting Bitcoin and it fell from $420 to $350.  

In February, BTC recovered to $420 when Brian Armstrong of Coinbase wrote a Medium.com article knocking BTC down just below $390.  

Once again, we've recovered to $420.  Wonder who will write the next Medium.com article...  

???

Roach, why do you say it isn't possible?  I really, really don't get it.  I'm definitely not an expert on bitcoin, mining, or anything else crypto-related--can you dumb it down to retard level for me.  I have been saying the halving is priced in for a while now and it certainly seems to me that it should be.  I already said it in this thread, and it's an EMH argument.

I think the previous increase from $200+ to $400+ was a market adjustment. The real effect of reward halving is not going to be seen overnight.

At the moment, demand has not gone up and those who believe the price will go up have already placed their bets. The supply will only go down in July. That's why nothing can be observed related to the halving.

Besides, the disagreement in blocksize increase will suppress demand...

But one thing for sure is that we are going to see a wild ride in the coming months...

I am not sure 100% if it is priced in or not either... but I think it may be priced in. Most people is too sure in that the halving will produce double price in my opinion.

Even if it is priced in, selling all coins would be nonsense move. If you look at the price there is no room for down. What will it be, 400 to 300? That doesn't affect us too big. But if it goes up 400 to 1000 that would be huge. So I won't sell for these prices. I'd rather wait 5 more years than selling it from 4XX dollars.

My post to debunk this bullshit:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1428863.0

you haven't yes seen the spike yet. the November rise was mostly because of what Tzupy said and also the market was so ready for the rise since it has been stable for so long and has tested 270-280 before then the rise started and it went to 400 then 300. the important part is that right now the above 400 has been stable and even with all the drama and hearn fud it is till above 400 strongly.

the low trade volume on bitcoin really bugs me a lot..... usually that is a very bad omen.

you will be back soon when we surpass the 500 mark, you're lucky that you may not lose much when you will enter again in the market if you're good enough

the halving was priced in on in those 3 days of the pump now it's not priced in anymore due to the diff

Nah, falling $4 on 900 BTC sold is perfectly normal and healthy for a $6 billion dollar uncensorable settlement token. After all, it only took a few thousand $ to retrace 50% of that drop.

Ok then bye bye!!Enjoy your profits.
If we should go up in price I will bump this thread at least once a week!

If you think the block halving is priced in, then sell your coins, which you already did. Good for you, but what's the point of letting us know that you sold? Just to make youself feel good while you know that the price will go up from this point? Good luck with buying back.

I, uh, think that's suitable advice for the OP (if you know what I mean ;) ). I'm not convinced it's good advice in general, however.

The block halving being priced in doesn't mean that the price now is the price forever more. It simply means that traders are aware that the halving will occur. Let me put it like this... if you have a bond, say, that pays $10 a month for the next 12 months, and then returns the initial principle of $100 - how much would that be worth to me? Clearly not $220 (because if I had $220 now, why would I tie it up just so I could receive it back in 12 months time?) It's the same with BTC - the price (broadly) reflects the fact that halving will occur in several months time, not simply that the halving will occur. A rational trader isn't going to buy BTC for the money they think it'll be worth in July - but they will take their estimate of July's worth into account when deciding how much they're prepared to pay for BTC in April.

There's also all the other fundamentals, and the usual short- and medium-term noise caused by trading, none of which suddenly disappear simply because we know the halving is coming!

tl;dr - Yes, the halving is priced in. No, that doesn't mean that trading BTC has suddenly become pointless! (I'm still hodling).

I should have made it a bit more clear I guess. :P I meant that when some one is thinking the current price may be the top (for now) that he can better sell his coins now, and buy back lower as he is clearly expecting the price to go lower since he sold his coins. That's what traders do to make profit. Buy low and sell high.

i wouldn't really call 15,000 USD low trade volume(according to bitcoinwisdom)
and it gets even bigger if you check out coinmarketcap which includes all the exchangers and all trade volumes in USD (EUR, JPY,CNY,...) which is $50,700,000 at the moment and growing.

also i want to add that whenever the price is stable the trade volume decreases because there are less day-traders trading bitcoin.

getting that feeling again, I don't like the low volume, I don't like the chinese miners, I dont like the developers fighting, I don't like euthereum showing up on the scene,
so, in summary, if it goes to $1000 I will be happy for all of you, but I won't feel sorry for myself.

will I buy back in a 3rd time? I don't know at this point it will take some convincing.

i

and we busy breaking out the bottom of the big triangle now

not that i think chart patterns really mean anything

The bottom? You mean upside?

I also think it's priced in, only the bulltards and cockroaches believe it's not. We all know the halving will occur in July, a few months from now. Traders deal in futures all the time, they anticipate the price. If you are waiting for the price to rocket to the moon, you will be waiting FOREVER, it ain't happening. We will see a gradual increase to maybe 500 until July. The actual halving will be a NON-EVENT in terms of price action.

Nice try zionist banking shills.  Click "talks_cheep"'s post history.  Every single post says "price is going to crash to 0 any second!" for like a year straight.  Yet the price goes from $200 to $500 while he's typing that.  It's a clear banker shill spam account.

The halving is not priced in yet. The recent bitcoin price rise is mainly related to the mass adoption of the bitcoin.

It may be true the halving is partly priced in, but i do see the halving is 2 months away and already there is a tumult on the markets
Which means we will see an even higher price then today.

Yes, probably higher price than today, considering the continuous stable uptrend. But probably not as much as many are expecting. The safest guess is probably around $750. But many things can happen in those two remaining months before the Halving. Let's just hope nothing unfortunate to happen.

we will see

right now its trying to break out to the upside

but its stalling out a bit......

it better get moving up, coz if it reverses to the downside and breaks low after a fake high, there will be panic at the disco

yeah that is what has always bugged me about BTC

assuming chinese volumes are fake, which I believe they are, BTC trade volume is just crazy thin, and always has been so. Reminds me of a game of chicken, as in who can hold the longest before they panic sell, forcing everyone else to panic sell.

Anyways, if it closes above $500 on a daily basis, I will buy back in smallish amount.

There is always the alt-coin scene for you to take some profits. I share the same sentiment, but I don't ardently believe that the next halving is already priced in. Chinese pools having massive hash powers over 50%? Totally not cool. Low trading volume in exchanges? Traders must have already accumulated hefty amounts of coins waiting to be dumped. Devs fighthing? Causes a stir in the community, creating panic. ETH? That's the least of bitcoin's problems.

The alt scene is always open for those opportunistic people wanting to take some profits but don't want to take the risks of being burned by the already messy ecosystem of bitcoin.

Say you are right, and the halving is already priced in. The thing is, that doesn't stop there from being further speculative increase or new ATHs based on manic FOMO alone. They just wouldn't last very long. Kind of like every other bubble we've had...

anything can happen, sure I agree to that.

But trading is based on probabilities, since you can never be certain of anything.

so, the question are:
what are the odds that halving is priced in?
what are the odds traders are long BTC already and ready to dump?
what are the odds lots of new money floods in sparking a buying frenzy?

There's a problem with that analysis: The risk of holding Bitcoin from a given time as well as the returns you could earn until then by using the money to the halving (time value of money) is also priced in.

The closer we get to the halving, the more valuable it becomes and the more effect it can have on the price.

To look at it another way, don't you think some people are either A) holding off until we get closer before buying or B) buying gradually as we get closer? That will have an effect.

It's a lot like dividends on stocks: The price gradually rises as the dividend date approaches. It's only completely priced in just before dividends are paid out. Once they are paid out, the price drops to reflect that dividends are now a year away.

The difference with Bitcoin, of course, is that the halving represents a permanent decrease in inflation, so there likely won't be an immediate drop.

I don't believe your theory on stock dividends / stock price is accurate.

else why don't the hedge funds just buy stocks 1 week before dividends and then sell the day after? if it was such an easy market beating strategy they would all be on it. I work for a lot of hedge funds and none of them do this.

You could just as easily speculate big money is smarter than that regarding bitcoin, IE buy bitcoin when it is down and far in advance, and then sell to the masses as halving gets closer? I am not saying I am smart money, but it is certainly what I did, in for average of $220 and out for average of $418

Either way I don't see what the point of holding bitcoin here is. The only things that make sense is to sell here, and wait to see if it can close daily over $500. If it does buy back in. So you might lose 10% gains but if it doesn't break $500 you will be able to buy back in much more than at a 10% discount from here. Probabilities.

But each has their own game plan.

You misunderstand me. Stock prices gradually rise until the dividend date and then *fall* by the amount of the dividend. That's exactly why you can't by right before dividends are paid and sell right after (if it didn't work this way, you could, which is why it doesn't work this way*). For example if a stock is $20 and then pays a $1 dividend, it will drop about $1 the next day (of course market fluctuations can change this) so that the value to investors is the same before and after.

See this article: Why don't investors buy stock just before the dividend date and sell right afterwards? (http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/137.asp)

Also, I think you are overestimating the strength of the $500 level. $500 is a psychological barrier, but it's not (necessarily) an actual resistance. In other words, there's no reason to favor buying then over buying now. That's like saying (when the price is $420) I want to see if the price can break $443 before I buy. Unless there is a resistance there, $443 is just another price.

So IF you think the price will go up, maybe you should buy. IF you think it will go down, then you are correct to wait. But just because the price breaks $500 does NOT mean there will be ANY more gains. It could break $500, sit at $515 for a month and then crash.

*Such obvious opportunities for profit are exploited until they no longer exist.

bitcoin reminds me exactly of gold

there is no real true way to value gold or bitcoin accurately, they just move around as people buy or sell it. They don't have any future earnings, they for the most part don't have a value outside of what the next person is willing to pay for it.

so market sentiment / crowd opinion drive both more than anything else.

if its going up people want more if its going down they sell.

close over 500 in my opinion will bring new money in. And I am not convinced this will happen, could just as easily pull the rug out from everyone and head down, I just think being long bitcoin here is a poor risk / reward probability.

The only way the halving can be priced in is if rich miners hold on to their bitcoins to sell them at a later date.

But since large scale miners have large scale operating costs i don't think this is very likely.

A serious miner won't be able to hold onto his bitcoins for months and months because he won't be able to pay his electricity bills which are in the thousands or tens of thousands a month or worse.

Mining farms can let their coins pile up and still pay their bills.

Let's take Antpool as an example. Today it minted 40 blocks which equals 1000BTC. And yesterday even more than that, but let's take 40 blocks per day as an average. 1000BTC is worth $437,000 at current rate. do that x30 = 30,000BTC x $437 = $13,110,000 per month!!!

Even if they pay $100,000 - $500,000 per month on bills, just look at what they can stash up. ;)

the mining supply of BTC is becoming more and more irrelevant compared to the number of BTC floating around that is not in the hands of miners, as time goes on.

If the masses panic and sell, it will bring 100 000s of coins, maybe even a few million into the the supply chain.

May people are saying that the value will be not even that high after the halving and the reason why they think that is because the value kept stable for a long time so that is bad.
But maybe it will rise, and it is indeed hard to know what is going to happen with Bitcoin itself.

That all your own opinions but i don't think that what are you saying about halving . halving is a good thing to get profit . also when halving is coming than automatically the price of bitcoin is increasing and it is also profitable thing so you should use your sense and also use the halving and get profit.. 

If you wana rich and also using the bitcoins, so should use the halving, i don't understand why you don't like halving, you can see the price of bitcoins is  increasing everyday because of halving is coming after 2 months, but when halving will close than the price of bitcoins will be down. so it all depend on use how we use our bitcoins and get profit.

Halving will be liked by all as it owns only profit to users, the price will be high during the time of halving and I assure that after halving too the price won't drop down, we can expect good profits at the end of this year.

Nothing is going to happen except maybe a price raise due to a speculatory bubble.

Look at LTC in 2015.
https://i.imgur.com/zpbeoU6.png

Can you guess when the halving happened?

https://i.imgur.com/CsmoG8d.png

Can you notice any change? There has been no long term change since then, and the price is about the same as it was during the halving almost a year ago, on August 25 2015.

The only currencies for which an immediate effect are seen in price are those like doge which are extremely susceptible to pumping due to lower market caps.
BTC is going to go on as usual, the only people seeing a difference will be the miners.

still higher average price than before the halving.

We all dont even know what is going to happen with Bitcoin and that is the problem, you see already that the price is rising slowly but it takes a long time until it will be high.
And that can be bad because not everyone has the patience for it to wait such a long time.

yes because deep thinkers like yourself are the only ones who could see the halving coming?

to everyone else, the halving is going to be a complete surprise.

Still not over 500

But I guess it is hanging in there

Go brave longs, you are braver than I.

It may take another month or two before we see the price reach $500 and even more than that.

We just need to have patience as there is nothing else that we can do right now.

The rise in price could also have been due to other factors. I do not personally remember what had happened [didn't do the research yet] but bitcoin has been very volatile. There's no guarantee that this halving the price will increase greatly. I will concede in saying that I have bullish beliefs towards the halving and that it would create a price increase, albeit I do not expect that the price will reach high levels [like some people have predicted] such as $1000, where it doubles.

But there isn't really a direct way of knowing how much the miners pay every day. The costs per mining rig could be pretty large when they add up to the amount of hashing power that they possess. Okay, sure... They make a lot of money, but come the halving, that will get cut in half. Perhaps they will be in profit for a while [or at least until the next halving] but I assume that many of the pool workers sell off the bitcoins immediately, because there are the mining costs and then there are also the people costs.

I do not see much price rise. It is all within a small range. If the price breaks $480, then we call it price rise.

And I am still waiting for that 500

As time passes this call looks to be more and more correct

The 21 million Bitcoin limit is priced in! It was known about in advance! Markets are forward looking. Even the halving 4 years from now is priced in!!! 🙄😱🙈😭

yep. Anyone who has wanted to purchase already has done so .... so there are not many buyers left

however, if this thing breaks to the downside, there will be some massive panic selling.