Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: deathcode on February 11, 2013, 09:24:21 PM



Title: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: deathcode on February 11, 2013, 09:24:21 PM
Ok so BTC has increased almost 100% in the past month, so, where's the correction?
it's impossible for BTC to keep going up without a correction. When do you think the big investors are going to sell and capitalize on their profits?
investors know that BTC will continue to go up in the long run, however, big investors work mostly on short term goals, they have numbers to reach at the end of the month and profits to report, so I doubt investors are thinking long term here (more than 12 months) and with an already interesting return (almost 100% in the past month) then I would expect to see a sell off...
Any thoughts?


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: justusranvier on February 11, 2013, 09:32:57 PM
It will happen once everyone is no longer waiting for it.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: alexeft on February 11, 2013, 10:04:21 PM
It's already correcting...upwards  ;)


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: twolifeinexile on February 11, 2013, 10:06:46 PM
n, however, big investors work mostly on short term goals, they have numbers to reach at the end of the month and profits to report,

where does this concept come from? Bitcoin is not some wall street mutual fund investments vehicles, big or small, most are just individuals.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: cedivad on February 11, 2013, 10:09:53 PM
Everyone knows that each bitcoin is worth at least 10k$ each ::)
So just keep your bitcoin that you will be rich really fast!

Easy uh?

I will wait to buy @ 15$


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: evolve on February 11, 2013, 10:11:49 PM
It's coming...there is a whole lot of greed in the air around here



"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" -Warren Buffett


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Offthechain on February 11, 2013, 10:34:43 PM
Well if there are big dogs out there I hope they do sell to distribute the coins a bit.

Personally I don't care if it drops a bit... you would have to pryse my Bitcoins from my cold dead hands at the moment!

Anyone else here consider selling at 25?

Some of those big movements could be exchanges or even Casinos buying up loads in advance of the coming tide.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: nobbynobbynoob on February 11, 2013, 10:43:52 PM
Anyone else here consider selling at 25?

Not a chance! :) I don't have many BTC in cold storage (or at all) at the moment but the few that are in cold storage aren't moving for less than the equivalent of about $250 in today's money - and probably a lot more besides.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: CurbsideProphet on February 12, 2013, 01:23:19 AM
It's coming...there is a whole lot of greed in the air around here



"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" -Warren Buffett

Not a bad quote to live by, but if you're short, remember this one too:

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: deadweasel on February 12, 2013, 01:24:46 AM
It's coming...there is a whole lot of greed in the air around here



"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" -Warren Buffett

Not a bad quote to live by, but if you're short, remember this one too:

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes

Keynes and Buffet never experienced a market like bitcoin.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: twolifeinexile on February 12, 2013, 01:31:02 AM
n, however, big investors work mostly on short term goals, they have numbers to reach at the end of the month and profits to report,

where does this concept come from? Bitcoin is not some wall street mutual fund investments vehicles, big or small, most are just individuals.

Mmmm this concept comes from investors that move large sums of money for a living.
Where does your knowledge comes from when you claim that bitcoin are mostly just "individuals"?
Have you checked the transactions in block chain? I see 20,000-70,000BTC transactions on a daily basis I doubt "individuals" are moving that amount of BTC in single transactions.

20k BTC is merely 400~500k, that size is too small comparing with any real financial institutional transactions,and they may not be individuals, but I do not see any evidence supporting the existence of big chuck of "investors with short term goals", I am sure there are some, but the current bitcoin transaction volume couldn't support a large pie of "investors that move large sums of money for a living"


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: jojo69 on February 12, 2013, 01:36:50 AM
god    make it come soon

the pain



oh god,    the pain


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Herodes on February 12, 2013, 01:42:45 AM
Ok so BTC has increased almost 100% in the past month, so, where's the correction?

it's impossible for The Internet to keep going up  growing without a correction.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: thefiniteidea on February 12, 2013, 02:05:51 AM
Ok so BTC has increased almost 100% in the past month, so, where's the correction?

it's impossible for The Internet to keep going up  growing without a correction.

http://memeorama.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/I-See-What-You-Did-There-Cat.jpg

Now that was a "damn correction" :D


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: newtenberg on February 12, 2013, 02:12:11 AM
Stop losses. If I were you, I'd press the "buy-back" button right now. ;D


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Herodes on February 12, 2013, 02:12:28 AM
On a related note it's worth mentioning that Gavin said there would be 2 or 3 more bubbles, but he may not be correct.

What if bitcoin grows exponentially, there will be more demand for bitcoin, so I don't see the price decreasing then.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: justusranvier on February 12, 2013, 02:16:13 AM
A lot of people are looking at what happened to the price last year and are kicking themselves for not buying at the bottom. I expect any dips to be short-lived because any significant downturn will cause more people to buy.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: johnyj on February 12, 2013, 06:02:54 AM
I do hope from time to time there are 60% retracements, so that BTC attract only true believers, speculators will definitely get shaked out by a 60% retracement and stay away


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: johnyj on February 12, 2013, 06:36:12 AM
I do hope from time to time there are 60% retracements, so that BTC attract only true believers, speculators will definitely get shaked out by a 60% retracement and stay away

No, that will draw speculators like flies on shit.

It's easy to say than done, if price in a week dropped below $10, I'm sure the sentiment will totally be negative, you will see how many doomsayers there will be


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on February 12, 2013, 09:18:40 AM
I believe there won't be one for at least a few days.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: BitcoinRate.com on February 12, 2013, 10:33:44 AM
There will be one, just a lot of people with fear of missing the boat that are buying now.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: kgo on February 12, 2013, 01:14:30 PM
The growth so far appears linear.  Wait until we go parabolic.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: johnyj on February 12, 2013, 01:50:49 PM
I do hope from time to time there are 60% retracements, so that BTC attract only true believers, speculators will definitely get shaked out by a 60% retracement and stay away

No, that will draw speculators like flies on shit.

It's easy to say than done, if price in a week dropped below $10, I'm sure the sentiment will totally be negative, you will see how many doomsayers there will be

Speculators can make money whether the price is going up or down.

Speculators mostly use TA, but none of TA can deal with a fast crash which break all the indicators in a very short time frame, either it is trend following based or momentum based/ swing trading. And from a risk management point of view, suddenly lose 60% of holding value is also not acceptable


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: arepo on February 12, 2013, 01:56:59 PM
I do hope from time to time there are 60% retracements, so that BTC attract only true believers, speculators will definitely get shaked out by a 60% retracement and stay away

...

Speculators mostly use TA, but none of TA can deal with a fast crash which break all the indicators in a very short time frame, either it is trend following based or momentum based/ swing trading. And from a risk management point of view, suddenly lose 60% of holding value is also not acceptable

fast crashes occur less and less often as the market matures


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Frequency on February 12, 2013, 01:57:36 PM
I have some "fiat" ready to buy me a new stack of BTC if THE price goes down ...
And will not sell my mined BTC before 2016 ...nomatter what ... :)

It is à worldwide system so only à small change will Give big effect to THE value ..

( Damn what would happen if let say Pokerstars  adopt BTC in to there payment system..)


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: btcgoldsilver on February 12, 2013, 02:53:15 PM
Not sure if this image link will work, taken from my trading blog at http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com

http://afbitcoins.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/20130210-1-month-chart.png

As long as we stay within this channel we'll keep going up, if it looks like breaking down out the bottom at any stage then I think you'll get your correction.

There will be corrections, as soon as doubt starts creeping in with enough people who've just gone long plus people who want to take profits, could easily snowball. I think would be shortlived though. Ultimately I think we are starting another mania like the 2011 one, which will go a lot higher this time. Won't be the last mania either. Only in my humble opinino, but what the f do u i know?



Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: kokojie on February 12, 2013, 03:10:16 PM
It happened already, it shot up to nearly $22, then corrected to $18. There would be another correction coming if it shoots up to $27.50


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: memvola on February 12, 2013, 03:28:07 PM
So, bitpay receives 500,000 from investors and you think that they are the only ones receiving money here?
I'm sure those same investors invested another 500,000 OR way more in pure bit coin knowing that the BTC would move up... why wouldn't they?
Anyways, that's just a tiny piece of evidence, if you don't want to see what's obvious...

Entities investing $500K are not the same as the people who "have numbers to reach at the end of the month and profits to report". The former group of people are not constrained by any kind of pattern, so there is no reason to expect them to initiate a correction; some could be range traders, some could be long, etc. The latter usually prefer mature markets and don't get to experiment with pocket change; I don't see any evidence of such institutions having positions in BTC.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: mb300sd on February 12, 2013, 03:43:57 PM
This IS the correction! from the drop to $2


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: johnyj on February 12, 2013, 06:19:31 PM
I do hope from time to time there are 60% retracements, so that BTC attract only true believers, speculators will definitely get shaked out by a 60% retracement and stay away

...

Speculators mostly use TA, but none of TA can deal with a fast crash which break all the indicators in a very short time frame, either it is trend following based or momentum based/ swing trading. And from a risk management point of view, suddenly lose 60% of holding value is also not acceptable

fast crashes occur less and less often as the market matures

I think in electronic trading era, flash crash like those happened in stock market may 2010 will become a norm, unless exchange have some daily range limit


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: jojo69 on February 12, 2013, 06:33:25 PM
JESUS GOD MAKE IT STOP!!


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: meowmeowbrowncow on February 12, 2013, 07:28:17 PM
It's coming...there is a whole lot of greed in the air around here



"Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" -Warren Buffett



No kidding.  Just waiting for it to happen.  tick, tock.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Yogafan00000 on February 12, 2013, 08:05:34 PM
I think we touch $30 sometime this weekend, and drop back to $18-$20 range by Monday.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Frequency on February 12, 2013, 08:20:49 PM
Speculations

Maybe there is just way more demand then supply.  .!,!.   
                                                                           


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Merralea on February 12, 2013, 11:38:42 PM
Well, right now it's...awe, never mind.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: SgtSpike on February 12, 2013, 11:42:09 PM
Well, right now it's...awe, never mind.
Lol, +1.  I saw the dip down below $25, and thought, "hmmm... that's not gonna last judging by the last few days"


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: DoomDumas on February 13, 2013, 01:38:28 AM
The growth so far appears linear.  Wait until we go parabolic.

+1, on a few month, log scale graphic, there is no bubble yet.. maybe if it goes to 40-50 too fast we'll see a bubble/correction, but not yet on my radar !


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: justusranvier on February 13, 2013, 01:42:32 AM
Has anyone else noticed that if you check the Fast Cash for Bitcoins thread it appears that Tangible Cryptography isn't have any trouble at all finding people who want to sell bitcoins, but in spite of that downward pressure the price is still going up?


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: oakpacific on February 13, 2013, 05:20:40 AM
No correction?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzcv

Did you see that skyrocketing, record-breaking volume daily red candle, in dollars? If that was not a correction, I don't know what is, and yet, it happened in the past month.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: byronbb on February 13, 2013, 06:50:21 AM
Newtonian mechanics where are you!?!!?


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: goxed on February 13, 2013, 07:43:12 AM
Correction is happening now!


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: sounds on February 13, 2013, 02:01:13 PM
Still a green candle yesterday.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: mccorvic on February 13, 2013, 03:07:23 PM
It's already correcting...upwards  ;)

Everyone read this again.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Vladimir on February 13, 2013, 03:15:18 PM
LOL this (and other threads) are so emotional.

The more emotions you have about this the more money you will lose (or not earn).


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: RodeoX on February 13, 2013, 04:08:56 PM
Not to burst any speculative bubbles, but perhaps the "correction" is a correction in the assumptions we have about bitcoin and it's economy?


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Vandroiy on February 13, 2013, 04:30:24 PM
I have no idea what's taking it so long. Few large players doing strange things are the best I can think of -- apart from maniac trend followers.

I'm selling down to reserves and turning bear.

Whatever the market state: the sentiment on this forum, IRC, reddit, wherever I look is in bubble state. Just read all this... I mean... what the heck.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Vladimir on February 13, 2013, 04:39:20 PM
I do not know the future. But it went from 0.5$ to 30$ in 6-8 month run previously. For all we know history can repeat itself and it could  go from 10$ to 600$ or maybe only to 300$ or 100$ this time. On stock market a company of Bitcoin's age and with a similar revolutionary product and with already decent moat effect could easily command 1 billion market cap. There is no good reason for Bitcoin to not get to similar "market cap" level in 2013 and this would be 100$ "valuation".

Sure there will be "corrections". Question is how deep they will be and whether those who sold early will be able to catch up. Too many people wait for corrections to jump on. For all we know they might have to chase the market later and/or be left in the dust.





Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: BitCoinsLOL on February 13, 2013, 04:43:48 PM
PED is the only explanation   :D


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: humanitee on February 13, 2013, 05:08:42 PM
Keep hoping, bears. It's pretty pathetic!

There's no pirate to save you this time, there's no Mt. Gox hack, there's nothing. There's ASICs which will further secure the network, allowing the capitalization to rise even further. There's bitcoin wireless, pizza for bitcoins, rumor of a large casino operation, wordpress, and countless other good things going on. We have exponential growth with a supply that has been halved!

I'm not expecting any sizable dumps until we pass the all time high.



Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Chalkbot on February 13, 2013, 05:19:08 PM
Plus I finally figured out how to explain bitcoins to friends and family;

Pizza Bux

They instantly get it.


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: cypherdoc on February 13, 2013, 05:25:19 PM
I do not know the future. But it went from 0.5$ to 30$ in 6-8 month run previously. For all we know history can repeat itself and it could  go from 10$ to 600$ or maybe only to 300$ or 100$ this time. On stock market a company of Bitcoin's age and with a similar revolutionary product and with already decent moat effect could easily command 1 billion market cap. There is no good reason for Bitcoin to not get to similar "market cap" level in 2013 and this would be 100$ "valuation".

Sure there will be "corrections". Question is how deep they will be and whether those who sold early will be able to catch up. Too many people wait for corrections to jump on. For all we know they might have to chase the market later and/or be left in the dust.





where's the pic of Adam chasing the train?  :)


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: arepo on February 14, 2013, 01:46:11 AM
I do hope from time to time there are 60% retracements, so that BTC attract only true believers, speculators will definitely get shaked out by a 60% retracement and stay away

...

Speculators mostly use TA, but none of TA can deal with a fast crash which break all the indicators in a very short time frame, either it is trend following based or momentum based/ swing trading. And from a risk management point of view, suddenly lose 60% of holding value is also not acceptable

fast crashes occur less and less often as the market matures

also, some 'fast crashes' are recognizable because they occur when a regular correction becomes panic selling. i called this knife when i saw a bulltrap yesterday (see 'bubble or bulltrap' (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=143507.0))


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Vladimir on February 14, 2013, 09:36:42 AM
looks more like a pigtrap than a bulltrap


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: solex on February 14, 2013, 10:17:32 AM

where's the pic of Adam chasing the train?  :)


Makes me laugh too :-)


Title: Re: Where is the damn correction???
Post by: Luno on February 14, 2013, 10:30:52 AM
Pig made $50 tonight
http://www.titanicuniverse.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/titanic-marketing-poster-219x300.jpg