Bitcoin Forum

I wasn't around for the previous halving.
What happened to the price of bitcoin at the halving and can that be used to gauge this upcoming halving?

It didn't have a huge upward trend in 2012 after the halving, but after sometime, almost 1 year from halving then, it got up to 1000 USD as a price.
But answering your questions, now you cannot have that as a gauge to judge this halving, as many things are different now. If the price doesn't go up significantly after this halving many miners will have to shut down and that is not a good thing.

Realistic view should be price of BTC in the range of 500-750 USD after the halving but this is just a prediction, because this cannot be truly be predicted, all we have to do is wait and see.

PS. Keeping your bitcoin is a very good idea until then.

i THINK THE CONDITIONS FOR BITCOIN ARE FAR DIFFERENT NOW COMPARED TO THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A HALVING

Bitcoin didn't break into mainstream back then, and its value was around $12, so looking at the 2012 halving to predict what will happen after the upcoming one is probably pointless.

Predictions based on previous events are very inaccurate, and can lead you to losing of money. They can be used only as example for further analysis, but those days situation were different than today..Or our situation soon can be changed within minutes..Be careful!

When the last halving was made there wasn't a high pump as it was expected but from the picture below we can see that the real pump was after 6 month of halving when the price was really high:

https://www.deepdotweb.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/4.png

So we can easly assume that Halving has little to do with real price rise after 1st reward drop. As 6 months is a little too much time to link halving with that pump.
The question is: will this situation repeat itself after 2nd halving?

This time the scenario is exactly different as the price difference during past halving and this time is very large. This time if the same effect as past halving happens bitcoin goes mainstream.

That 1000USD thing had nothing to do with the halving. It was a scam of Mt.Gox (a scam exchange company which is long gone) and they were raising the price unnaturally.

For past bitcoin halving it has great effect on bitcoin becaise it has great effect to currents price halving charts tells that past halviNg make the price of bitcoin soar high and i hope it soar high again for this halving event again.

You cannot compare the previous Halving event to where we are now... The coins has been distributed a lot more, and this will make things a little bit more complex. I would rather see something else happen

this time around... We will see a price increase building up to the Halving event, because of all the hype and at it's peak, it will suddenly decline massively.... Why, because a lot of people are waiting for this

event and once the price climb high enough... people will start selling and the bots will go in overdrive. The downward trend will be fast... and people will be disappointed, if they were buying to speculate and the

price will drop and they missed out on selling before it dropped. As usual the speculators will blame Bitcoin for their stupidity.  ::)

you can also put it in another perspective, the pump happened before the halving, it was around $4 6 months before and then it went to $12, so 3x increase in my book

Which is not happening right now. There is no sudden moves and price spikes (-+$50 price fluctuation is standard in my book).
We have pretty stable BTC price despite halving in only 10 weeks from now. Maybe it is because there is already more than 15 millions of BTC mined?

Well it was another time at that time, but nowadays the pump don't know if it started (considering that it was at 200s and 300s before) but i expect that before the halving there will be a panic buying situation so the price of course will be increased.

It isn't 3x times increase, but 30 usd in a month doesnt seem stable to me...

I depends on the perspective. When you look back one year ago where the price was around 40% of the current price then there was a good upward trend. Halving is one factor for sure.

Then you can do that to every price increase of bitcoin, and slap a halving sticker on it. "Oh, this price increase was due to the halving that would occur in 3 years." No. It may have played a very small part of it.

I don't expect the halving to have as large of a price increase as people are [stupidly] suggesting. The price will not double. A majority of the community seems to [though it could just be sig-spam] suggest that the halving would have an inverse effect on the price [giving way to supply & demand] though it's not really halving the supply.

yes, i think it's because of that reason  too, when there was the first halving, the amount of coins in circulation was tiny in comparison to what we have now

so it was easy to manipulate, that's why in the past there was that huge pump of 25x

At that having the price of bitcoin reach to a much height and everyone was happy with that as all of them who have bitcoin earn multiple X with their coins the other point at that was when a price increased was seen a number of people started to adopt it and the price increased more higher, At the halving of 2016 the price rising is expected but only if people feel interest in it and the other people who are not aware with it start to adopt it.

Pretty much nothing but just right after the price went up really big, but it probably had nothing to do with it because bitcoin inflation wasnt a matter at that point.

Now it is, so the current halving will have more impact on bitcoin, and we can see a rally after this as well.

I believe that I also was not around when the halving happened that is why I am now even more excited to see the halving happening. Lets hope that it is happening soon because I am ready to make some moves.

Am not present on previous halving. I can guess from the BTC trend for past 2 years that the value has really raised to the top and leading this forum now. So I have some doubts about the halving. Is this calculated by how many users are there at the year end and value will be revised depends upon the users.

Interesting that the effect of the first halving didn't make the price skyrocket right away. It took a while before the price went up to $1000 but I don't know if that is a direct effect or attributable to the halving that happened. Now, in a month's time, we are going to witness another halving and we might or might not see price movements. Circumstances are different and that makes the anticipation all the more exciting.

Well we had a very small climb pre and after befor it took off.  I think the reason we had a double move is because the halving reminded people how scarce bitcoin was. So many months after when we went to $1000 from $12 the halving was still taking effect.  All the new people who join in next rally will be thinking about 2020 halving.

2020 Halving will be known as "Satoshi's Halving"... ;D
This is when Satoshi will probably decide to halve his own coin supply! :P

Historically, that the previous decline in awards for the block does not have a material impact on the price of Bitcoin. November 28, 2012 maynerskaya award for the first time decreased twice. Then bitcoin was worth about $ 13.4 and no immediate effect on the price of this event did not have any. Number of block 210 was 000. But in following this, in 2013, the year immediately Bitcoin experienced two price bubble, each of which swells cryptocurrency rate at least 10 times.

I found an old topic in the forum on this topic https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=61334.0

Can we say price has to double from 400, from example, 800, so that miners can make as much money as now?

Last bitcoin halving doesnt affect bitcoin too much. I think its because I think Last halving bitcoin users are few if you compare to now. Many bitcoin user will pump the bitcoin today, until the bitcoin halving

the month period after the last halving as the christmas period.. so ofcourse logically people were more interested in using their fiat to buy gifts. so there was not much activity in bitcoin.. but as soon as the new year arrived when mining pools start to react to the new years electricity bill and seeing less bitcoin stash, things changed. and the price started to react.

this summer we should not see as much of a lull straight after the halving. so expect there might be some movement much sooner this time
in 2012 it took 4 months to go from $11-$110

so a safe bet is 200% in less than 4 months... yep in not going to exaggerate and say 1000% in 4 months, as i said, go for a safe bet

knowing this, people(trading not mining) will want to get some "cheap" coins early. so dont leave it until the day of the halving to buy large hoards. because others would already have started.

there is no way of knowing when pools will react to the lack of bitcoin income after the halving, we are only speculating it will happen with less of a downtime than the last halving.. but from the traders point of view, they know it will happen at some point and so they will be buying early

also if your reading charts. try to separate the november 2012-may2013 away from the october 2013-december 2014
the pump starting in october13 was in relation to ASICS hitting the market, the the subsequent fall off when speculation died and mtgox saga happened..
treat the reaction to the halving as just the six months of november 2012-may2013

I think this conclusion is incorrect.

• it's not 6 month, rally started 2 or 3 months after halfing
• the halving represents a change of paramter. Why would all effects from that happen instantly? That makes no sense and I don't think it's far-fetched to think that there might be some reservoirs of bitcoin that need to be emptied before the supply reduction can take effect and start a price runup can start.

Your logic is really a bit flawed. First you assert that there is no link and then you pose the question wether the situation will repeat. Well, if there is no link, why would it repeat? What exactly would repeat?

My opinion: there is a link and it will probably repeat. If so, we'll all be happy hodlers in spring of 2017.

The miners stopping mining because price is not high enough is just FUD, Back in 2015 we were sitting at £150 mark and now we are more tha double that. miners weren't shutting down miners back in 2015 so why would they do it after the halving when price is already more than double. Price is more than good enough where its at.

you don't need to be around to know what happened everything has been writing down on the price charts which are also available publicly.

besides you can't expect the same thing to happen again this time around. although I have the feeling that the same thing is going to happen but there is no guarantee about that.

last time the halving had a much better effect on the value of bitcoin and because of that bitcoin got much more fame in online world even at that time not enough people were at bitcoin, and nowadays there are about more than 50% online workers are using bitcoin and the demand is also increased as compared to last halving so I will say that at this time bitcoin will get more fame and the value will increase much more.

I wasn't here also, but I watched around net about it. There is a lot of everything about previous halving, statistic, videos, comments from that time and close after.... Even now people are argue about some things, you will find people who believe that same thing will happen, and you have others.

In my opinion we have different situation here, bitcoin grow since then. There is more people involved, much more alt coins behind bitcoin ( I think that will have big role in futre ), so I think bitcoin have a chance to rise this time, and what is important to stay high. For that I hope for, and I think that would be best possible outcome of this year halving.

Me too i was no there also but i research about it.Last halvings made an history on crytp currenxy world specially on bitcoin world reaching a historical price of $1200.Yes we can use previous halving as basis of this years halving.But i expect more than what happened last halving im looking forward for bitcoin reaching $2000-$5000

That's way too much 800usd might just bne it's peak this time.

It didn't reach $1200 when there was a bitcoin halving. It was at around $6 during the first halving and it increased slightly, I presume there wasn't much cost to running it and people could make a profit even after the halving and hence people could still make a profit.

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Bitcoin has gained a significant popularity since then and the price has rose significantly. I would expect it to be roughly the same and the price increasing slightly more. Reason being the profit miners are making would still be reasonable even after halving.

ill just stay positive in the upcoming 2016 bitcoin halving, whatever happens still life goes on.

During the past halving none knew about it and when such a big variation happened every user got added hope on bitcoin. With that now too users expecting big variation on halving. Truly none is sure of changes on halving.

i am quite new here. i have now idea about the previous bitcoin halving. i want to know about this. i have no idea what halving is. and what happens in halving.

No one can predict or make assume about markings halving price. it has many factors can make bitcoin halving it's difficult to explain about markings halving price.

The stable price in 2013 before the huge rise in late 2013 was around $100. That is a rise of 10 times compared to before halving.

yeah, at that time the price was increased to about 10 x so we can also expect the increase in this halving the same in this year.

When i started bitcoin, The exact date is the bitcoin halving so ididnt know it and my friend is only telling me that ,that day is the 1st bitcoin halving but i didnt have any idea about that, Now i know how to gain a profit from it. But when i see the chart of last bitcoin halving , i see bitcoin doesnt push a lot too make a break

I was also not on bitcoin, on previous halving but when i heard about bitcoin and then about halving of 2013 then i started to search for it on google, and i got all the info about halving and previous halving.

The previous halving not much was to be expected i remember reading on this forum.
This halving things are totally different and very spectacular events are happening.

Looks like the old block halving is nearly the same as this year.. and i think after block halving we will see that the price will goes back to below 400 or 200.. i don't know if it will happen but this is just my speculations..

It will go down, but not to $200.... at that price most of the miners will have to stop mining. I think we might see it averaging out at about $500, because it always goes back to where it averaged for

a couple of months, or a little bit higher. This is also just me using historic price statistics from the last few years. The last Halving did not have such a big distribution of coins as we have now, and a

small group of people, made a huge difference last time...They cannot do it now.... Well not that easily any way.  ::)

The previous halving was highly effective and looks new to most users when they experience continuous increase. And upon that people started speculating these days about price increase on halving which has happened now.

I think the terms in hike of BTC is pretty differ compared with last year halving. Am expecting the value of BTC will treat us well with hike. When you see the value of past years was very and slightly increased and now suddenly increased.

The price was pretty low,less than 10$ i think,so it would be impossible to make a comparison since bitcoin is worth 70 times more now.

at least if after the halfing the price drops some it will seem like we are getting a great deal if we can buy again at 500 dollars. I havent bought any at the current price but if and when it drops back down i will probably grab a few more to inflate my holdings.

The upcoming bitcoin halving can't be compared with the previous bitcoin halving. Previously, people weren't aware of the halving nor there was a big amount of distributed bitcoins. The effects of the upcoming halving would be much more different.

Yeah nice idea to save your bitcoin, cause the halving are away in only a days left distance. We could earn a nice profits if that will be a cause. We could get a tremendous amount too.