Bitcoin Forum

Hi everyone,

I have a couple of questions about bitbet.us .

Firstly, is there anyway to calculate the payout on a bet you have made with them if you are correct? (even if a rough estimate).

Secondly, I read in the FAQ that you can earn bitcoins by proposing your own bets, but it does not state how much. Does anyone know know much (if anything) you get once one of your proposed bets finishes?

These are the bets that I proposed:
http://bitbet.us/bet/253/sonys-playstation-4-will-ship-before-the-end/
http://bitbet.us/bet/254/btc-usd-at-mtgox-will-be-above-35-on/

Here is the FAQ:
http://bitbet.us/faq/

Each bet has an amount and a weight. The weight decreases over time, so people who bet at the end will get a lower share than the people who bet at the beginning.

I am not positive what formula they use, but it should be something like: multiply your bet times your weight, divide that by the sum of each bet multiplied by its weight, then multiply by the amount bet on the other side of the bet to get your winnings.

So if there is 2 btc bet on "no", and "yes" wins with your bet of 1 @ weight 100 and another bet 3 @ weight 200, then the formula would be:

(1 * 100) / ( (1 * 100) + (3 * 200) ) * 2 = 0.2857

So you will get 1 + 0.2857 = 1.2857 back, the guy who bet no will get 0 back, and the other guy who bet yes will get 3 + 1.7143 = 4.7143 back.

At least that is how I think it works?

When you propose a bet, one of the initial amounts (the smaller one) gets tied to an address you supply. If that bet wins, you get paid. At least that's how I understand it works. I've proposed two bets that haven't been resolved yet.

The first is on the MLB Season opener (http://bitbet.us/bet/139/mlb-season-opener-rangers-over-astros/?ref=1DRNiHyAVRRiWJ5jWbnqgatritzQrrZKqw) between the Astros and Rangers. I proposed it with a rather high ending weight to keep it attractive up until the bet closes to attract low information bettors who might think the Astros might actually win and more sophisticated bettors who might spot an arbitrage opportunity, but would be turned off if the weight dropped too much.

The second is a World Series bet  (http://bitbet.us/bet/151/st-louis-cardinals-will-win-the-2013-world/?ref=1DRNiHyAVRRiWJ5jWbnqgatritzQrrZKqw) I made drunk when Stan Musial died. The weight on this bet drops as far as the site allows, but it is also open potentially through the second game of the world series if the Cardinals drop out sooner. I opened this bet with the a bit of a hedge, because this is probably going to attract more action as the season goes on and the weight is dropping low eventually.

I've proposed other bets as well, but I think as a matter of etiquette a guideline I follow is that the less time a bet is open the less I am going to let the weight drop. With the exception of bets that could be resolved early such as this sort of bet (http://bitbet.us/bet/224/bitcoin-and-silver-price-to-intersect-in-february/?ref=1DRNiHyAVRRiWJ5jWbnqgatritzQrrZKqw) (not one of mine), in these cases let the weight drop aggressively to not too richly reward people who throw their bets in when the future is all but certain.

Thanks!
helpful information there.

My bet has closed now so I will see what happens with it.
This was it (http://bitbet.us/bet/254/btc-usd-at-mtgox-will-be-above-35-on/?ref=1zQ44Xxyp1zNvap3RZNCZp2Kd9Pg3CHpT)

I'm still confused. It would be more noobs friendly if I could see a ratio bet/win. Like if you bet 1BTC now then you win x bitcoin.

I think this bet is a lock : http://bitbet.us/bet/265/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-april-1st/

But I don't want to risk a large amount of bitcoin to win some dust so I will pass.

The problem is how much you win can change greatly depending on future bets that are placed.