Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Bowjob on February 23, 2013, 02:26:25 AM



Title: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Bowjob on February 23, 2013, 02:26:25 AM
Upwards. :)


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: adamstgBit on February 23, 2013, 02:28:44 AM
relax its not even close to a crash yet


obviously just a small bump in the road to 50$ bitcoins


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: str4wm4n on February 23, 2013, 02:33:53 AM
relax its not even close to a crash yet


obviously just a small bump in the road to 50$ bitcoins

+1


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Bowjob on February 23, 2013, 02:41:12 AM
If Adam is saying BTC will go up, then that gets me worried..


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Ichthyo on February 23, 2013, 02:48:02 AM
If Adam is saying BTC will go up, then that gets me worried..

thats what's known as "a correction": Adam becoming bullish....  ;)


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: adamstgBit on February 23, 2013, 02:54:53 AM
http://i.qkme.me/3628av.jpg
  :D


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: theymos on February 23, 2013, 02:56:12 AM
I actually wouldn't be surprised if there was a downward trend for a while.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Bitobsessed on February 23, 2013, 02:57:29 AM

I almost fell off my chair.  Thanks a lot!   :D


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: smoothie on February 23, 2013, 03:05:47 AM
yes btc crashed...you should sell lol  :D


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Piper67 on February 23, 2013, 03:09:39 AM
yes btc crashed...you should sell lol  :D

I'll sell you my stash for 2 USD a pieces... Oh, no, hang on, I won't.  ;D


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: dopamine on February 23, 2013, 03:10:10 AM
please sell need more bitcoins  ;D


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: twolifeinexile on February 23, 2013, 03:11:32 AM
Crash .... what the fuck are you all on? Just a week ago BTC was $25 and there is a million dollars + in bids above that currently just on gox. Guys run around yelling on the hourly trend look ridiculous.
If it lose the momentum, someone will call it crash is coming. And last time gold had sudden speedy rise then lose momentum then it crashed (below 200 days moving average, though it still finish a large rise that year-2011)
This is just name calling ;)


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Ichthyo on February 23, 2013, 03:42:50 AM
a dip, a correction and a crash are different things.

An real downward trend is yet another thing. So please relax


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: twolifeinexile on February 23, 2013, 03:45:15 AM
a dip, a correction and a crash are different things.

An real downward trend is yet another thing. So please relax
but I do believe there is some nervousness sentiment(guess also excitement as well)


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: ElectricMucus on February 23, 2013, 03:49:00 AM
a dip, a correction and a crash are different things.

An real downward trend is yet another thing. So please relax

http://www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com/images/07-minister.jpg


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Ichthyo on February 23, 2013, 03:50:35 AM
a dip, a correction and a crash are different things.

An real downward trend is yet another thing. So please relax
but I do believe there is some nervousness sentiment(guess also excitement as well)

after a correction, an renewed run up to take the all time high would look much more credible


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: BIGMERVE on February 23, 2013, 03:51:45 AM
a dip, a correction and a crash are different things.

An real downward trend is yet another thing. So please relax

So which one is it?


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: gmiwenht on February 23, 2013, 03:53:24 AM
[deleted]


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Monster Tent on February 23, 2013, 03:54:48 AM
If bitcoin went back to $15 it would be understandable based on long term trendline. A crash would be like the last time it went to 32 then $2.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Nesetalis on February 23, 2013, 03:55:08 AM
i hope it does crash so i can buy more :P i've another 600$ sitting waiting to be turned in to bitcoins if it gets low enough for me. :D


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Ichthyo on February 23, 2013, 03:56:24 AM
lets wait untill the dust has settled  ;D


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: twolifeinexile on February 23, 2013, 04:04:36 AM
lets wait untill the dust has settled  ;D
but when do you know wait is over, even it shoot above 32, isn't it still can go down again? :D


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: dopamine on February 23, 2013, 04:07:41 AM
its not even the weekend yet  ::)


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Ichthyo on February 23, 2013, 04:43:47 AM
lets wait untill the dust has settled  ;D
but when do you know wait is over, even it shoot above 32, isn't it still can go down again? :D

the unfortunate thing is: we can constitute and confirm a "trend" only in hindsight, when it has manifested already.
Realistically speaking, everything over $20 is dangerous ground. Only if the rates have stayed for a prolonged time above $20, I'd put more confidence into staying there, given the fundamental situation for Bitcoin remains the same.

So for the time being, the best thing we can do is watch the drama and don't bet too much on a single horse


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: twolifeinexile on February 23, 2013, 04:46:11 AM
Please dwolla clear my money so i can buy NOW!!!!!!
dwolla need bank to work to clear your money and unfortunately, banks are closed during weekend.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: TooCasual on February 23, 2013, 04:57:02 AM
Its just the big money guys selling BTC to cause excitement only to re-buy 1-4 btc cheaper.  No biggie.  At least they are makin' the big dough.
Hah.  Damn, I'm always a bit gun shy to sell and re-buy.

Oh well.  Still is a world currency and millions want it.  No big deal.

TC

Topic should be renamed BTC CASH!!!
Haha


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: johnyj on February 23, 2013, 05:12:03 AM
Low liquidity market always performs like this, this wave is over, we need to consolidate a long time before re-challenge the ATH


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Odalv on February 23, 2013, 01:48:05 PM
If bitcoin went back to $15 it would be understandable based on long term trendline. A crash would be like the last time it went to 32 then $2.

I do not expect less than $25. :-)
http://s7.postimage.org/u3e5w57cr/chart5.png


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: piramida on February 23, 2013, 02:25:36 PM

I do not expect less than $25. :-)
http://s7.postimage.org/u3e5w57cr/chart5.png

But based on your graph (which I think is right) it still can go to 20 or so (three bottom arrows). I still think we're in a side channel for a while, but theoretically 20 is possible... 15, not so much.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: donjoe on February 23, 2013, 03:18:06 PM
dwolla need bank to work to clear your money and unfortunately, banks are closed during weekend.
Which is, ofc, severely retarded, since all we're talking about are numbers and simple math, which the banks' computers could very well handle 24/7. I mean at the very least I'd expect to be able to transfer funds between my own accounts at the same bank even during the weekends, but nooo, it's still too scary a prospect for these technophobic schmucks.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Herodes on February 23, 2013, 03:30:41 PM
Which is, ofc, severely retarded, since all we're talking about are numbers and simple math, which the banks' computers could very well handle 24/7. I mean at the very least I'd expect to be able to transfer funds between my own accounts at the same bank even during the weekends, but nooo, it's still too scary a prospect for these technophobic schmucks.

And that's why bitcoin will win. It is incredible that transferring money between ones own accounts doesn go instantly. In some banks it works instantly between own accounts though.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: donjoe on February 23, 2013, 03:34:32 PM
Well, at least that's why some form of digital coin will win. In the long term I do hope, though, that it will be a better thought out digital currency system than Bitcoin, which is just the first prototype to be tested on a relatively large scale, but not by far the best theoretical proposal out there.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Herodes on February 23, 2013, 03:39:21 PM
Well, at least that's why some form of digital coin will win. In the long term I do hope, though, that it will be a better thought out digital currency system than Bitcoin, which is just the first prototype to be tested on a relatively large scale, but not by far the best theoretical proposal out there.

Good input. What are the things that you think lack in bitcoin at this point in time ?


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: donjoe on February 23, 2013, 03:47:24 PM
Since currency only exists to represent symbolically and allow the exchange of real values, any successful currency system should be able to ensure that there is always exactly as much currency as is needed to represent the existing real values on the market, no more, no less (so no inflation and no deflation if possible). Bitcoin has no mechanism for this and is in fact worse than fiat currency in this respect - at least with fiat currency you have some central authority that intervenes now and then to adapt the money supply to the size of the "real economy", but with Bitcoin no such intervention is even possible. An obviously better system would be a system based on the notion of "self-issued credit", where every producer of goods and services is also the issuer of a specific type of coin with which said goods and services can be bought. Then on the whole there will always be a ratio of coin-to-product that stays very close to 1:1 and any inflation or deflation will only affect a specific producer who happened to make mistakes in calculating how much of their own specific type of coin to issue considering how much product they're offering. The only digital system I know so far that has this feature is Paul Grignon's "Digital Coin".


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Jaques on February 23, 2013, 03:52:32 PM

I do not expect less than $25. :-)
http://s7.postimage.org/u3e5w57cr/chart5.png

But based on your graph (which I think is right) it still can go to 20 or so (three bottom arrows). I still think we're in a side channel for a while, but theoretically 20 is possible... 15, not so much.

yep ...


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Jaques on February 23, 2013, 03:55:06 PM
Since currency only exists to represent symbolically and allow the exchange of real values, any successful currency system should be able to ensure that there is always exactly as much currency as is needed to represent the existing real values on the market, no more, no less (so no inflation and no deflation if possible). Bitcoin has no mechanism for this and is in fact worse than fiat currency in this respect - at least with fiat currency you have some central authority that intervenes now and then to adapt the money supply to the size of the "real economy", but with Bitcoin no such intervention is even possible. An obviously better system would be a system based on the notion of "self-issued credit", where every producer of goods and services is also the issuer of a specific type of coin with which said goods and services can be bought. Then on the whole there will always be a ratio of coin-to-product that stays very close to 1:1 and any inflation or deflation will only affect a specific producer who happened to make mistakes in calculating how much of their own specific type of coin to issue considering how much product they're offering. The only digital system I know so far that has this feature is Paul Grignon's "Digital Coin".

good argument!


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Tas on February 23, 2013, 03:59:08 PM
Since currency only exists to represent symbolically and allow the exchange of real values, any successful currency system should be able to ensure that there is always exactly as much currency as is needed to represent the existing real values on the market, no more, no less (so no inflation and no deflation if possible). Bitcoin has no mechanism for this and is in fact worse than fiat currency in this respect - at least with fiat currency you have some central authority that intervenes now and then to adapt the money supply to the size of the "real economy", but with Bitcoin no such intervention is even possible. An obviously better system would be a system based on the notion of "self-issued credit", where every producer of goods and services is also the issuer of a specific type of coin with which said goods and services can be bought. Then on the whole there will always be a ratio of coin-to-product that stays very close to 1:1 and any inflation or deflation will only affect a specific producer who happened to make mistakes in calculating how much of their own specific type of coin to issue considering how much product they're offering. The only digital system I know so far that has this feature is Paul Grignon's "Digital Coin".

good argument!

+1 I like it too! Must research Paul Grignon's "Digital Coin".


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: deeplink on February 23, 2013, 04:10:47 PM
Since currency only exists to represent symbolically and allow the exchange of real values, any successful currency system should be able to ensure that there is always exactly as much currency as is needed to represent the existing real values on the market, no more, no less (so no inflation and no deflation if possible). Bitcoin has no mechanism for this and is in fact worse than fiat currency in this respect - at least with fiat currency you have some central authority that intervenes now and then to adapt the money supply to the size of the "real economy", but with Bitcoin no such intervention is even possible.

But in practice the fiat system is inflating the money supply as if there were no tomorrow while the economy (real value on the market) is decreasing. This is ultimately inevitable if a central authority is in charge of the money supply.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Jutarul on February 23, 2013, 04:24:17 PM
http://i47.tinypic.com/1z48vgg.jpg


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: donjoe on February 23, 2013, 05:35:16 PM
But in practice the fiat system is inflating the money supply as if there were no tomorrow while the economy (real value on the market) is decreasing. This is ultimately inevitable if a central authority is in charge of the money supply.
It's not inevitable, it's just one of the possible policy options for reacting to an economic downturn if you want to get the economy growing again. What makes it necessary is not that there's a central authority, but that the money in use is based on ever-compounding debt - this means that there is always an imperative for the economy to keep growing or the monetary system collapses.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: ajk on February 23, 2013, 05:39:36 PM
Its cute how quickly people are to turn when dumps do happen,

Yesterday was a pretty interesting day, it is surprising to see that we didnt bounce as quick as we did in the prior dumps and have adjusted my assessments as necessary,

I would say that the next few days is going to really determine whether or not we are seeing a actual reverse in trend but I am hopeful since tuesdays has usually led to green candles

Hope everyone made some good trades yesterday I know there were quite a few people making money last night!

Edit:
Recently saw some Big 1K+ coin purchases around 28.40, big support around 28 was bigger yesterday but some of it was taken


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: johnyj on February 23, 2013, 06:29:37 PM
Since currency only exists to represent symbolically and allow the exchange of real values, any successful currency system should be able to ensure that there is always exactly as much currency as is needed to represent the existing real values on the market, no more, no less (so no inflation and no deflation if possible). Bitcoin has no mechanism for this and is in fact worse than fiat currency in this respect - at least with fiat currency you have some central authority that intervenes now and then to adapt the money supply to the size of the "real economy", but with Bitcoin no such intervention is even possible.

An obviously better system would be a system based on the notion of "self-issued credit", where every producer of goods and services is also the issuer of a specific type of coin with which said goods and services can be bought. Then on the whole there will always be a ratio of coin-to-product that stays very close to 1:1 and any inflation or deflation will only affect a specific producer who happened to make mistakes in calculating how much of their own specific type of coin to issue considering how much product they're offering. The only digital system I know so far that has this feature is Paul Grignon's "Digital Coin".

Interesting thought :)

I think it is not very practical, since the value of products changes over time, some products have to be consumed quickly, some products degrade very fast, so it means you have to constantly destroy your digital coin with each consumed product, otherwise there will be more and more coins out there without corresponding products

And, a successful currency system should only ensure that the price of currency stays stable. There are lots of real wealth do not have corresponding currency, because they do not participate in exchange during normal time. When financial crisis hit, many people have to sell assets to get money, and that's one of the reason the demand for currency suddenly doubled or tripled



Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: piramida on February 23, 2013, 07:21:17 PM
This "digital coin" looks exactly like a dumbed down view of stock market to me. Nothing interesting there, just some invented names for existing financial instruments.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: mccorvic on February 23, 2013, 08:12:31 PM
Oh no, we're still at $29. Obviously, BTC is dead.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: humanitee on February 23, 2013, 08:16:34 PM
Oh no, we're still at $29. Obviously, BTC is dead.

A mccorvic is now only 1:290
Pizza bux are dead :[


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: herzmeister on February 23, 2013, 08:43:07 PM
Since currency only exists to represent symbolically and allow the exchange of real values, any successful currency system should be able to ensure that there is always exactly as much currency as is needed to represent the existing real values on the market, no more, no less (so no inflation and no deflation if possible). Bitcoin has no mechanism for this and is in fact worse than fiat currency in this respect - at least with fiat currency you have some central authority that intervenes now and then to adapt the money supply to the size of the "real economy", but with Bitcoin no such intervention is even possible. An obviously better system would be a system based on the notion of "self-issued credit", where every producer of goods and services is also the issuer of a specific type of coin with which said goods and services can be bought. Then on the whole there will always be a ratio of coin-to-product that stays very close to 1:1 and any inflation or deflation will only affect a specific producer who happened to make mistakes in calculating how much of their own specific type of coin to issue considering how much product they're offering. The only digital system I know so far that has this feature is Paul Grignon's "Digital Coin".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ripple_monetary_system
https://ripple.com/
https://encrypted.google.com/search?hl=en&q=ripple%20site%3Abitcointalk.org


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: KTE on February 23, 2013, 09:39:35 PM
Its cute how quickly people are to ...

... say that the next few days is going to really determine whether or not we are seeing a actual reverse in trend

 ;)


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Odalv on February 23, 2013, 09:46:37 PM
reverse in trend ? it take weeks to stop and reverse. :-) (drop from 31 to 28 and back to 29 in one day, is not reverse in trend)


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: donjoe on February 23, 2013, 09:49:30 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ripple_monetary_system
https://ripple.com/
https://encrypted.google.com/search?hl=en&q=ripple%20site%3Abitcointalk.org
Not the same thing at all - Ripple seems to be just a social network solution to simplify some of the transactions people want to perform with eachother so that no middleman is needed (or has to be paid extra). It addresses none of the problems of money-as-debt fiat-currencies.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: donjoe on February 23, 2013, 10:02:13 PM
I think it is not very practical, since the value of products changes over time, some products have to be consumed quickly, some products degrade very fast, so it means you have to constantly destroy your digital coin with each consumed product, otherwise there will be more and more coins out there without corresponding products
Sure it's practical: you just alter your specific redemption rate to create an incentive for people to buy your product when it's most convenient for you to sell it. As for degradation, when demand for your product declines, so does the value of your specific coin relative to all other coins - this is handled by exchange rate servers, always comparing available buy and sell orders denominated in all coins.

Quote
a successful currency system should only ensure that the price of currency stays stable
"Price of currency" makes no sense. Currency shouldn't have a price, as it shouldn't have a value of its own. Only products and services should have a price, i.e. real values should be converted symbolically into currency units.

Quote
There are lots of real wealth do not have corresponding currency, because they do not participate in exchange during normal time.
That's with the current system.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: herzmeister on February 23, 2013, 10:52:52 PM
Not the same thing at all - Ripple seems to be just a social network solution to simplify some of the transactions people want to perform with eachother so that no middleman is needed (or has to be paid extra). It addresses none of the problems of money-as-debt fiat-currencies.

just as Bitcoin is both a currency and a payment system, there's also more to Ripple (the original idea anyway). It's exactly all about what you describe: self-issued credit.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: Bowjob on February 28, 2013, 03:55:18 AM
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2f/The_Launch_of_Long_March_3B_Rocket.jpg

Prepare for liftoff!


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: cbeast on March 02, 2013, 02:24:31 AM
Coinbase is outta coins again.


Title: Re: BTC Crash!!!
Post by: mccorvic on March 02, 2013, 02:29:43 AM
Coinbase is outta coins again.

Clearly a sign of a crash waitwat?