Bitcoin Forum

Cut-Off (-72 blocks) was on 2013-03-16 13:12:32


Rules:

Only guesses that are before (or on) the time of the drop will be valid, so you should rather choose in what you expect to be the lower range (and start mining Freicoin).The block of the drop is 16128.

Time format is Unix epoch time in GMT (http://www.epochconverter.com/ (http://www.epochconverter.com/)), and should be on the last line of your post if you quote  guessing by others, or equivalently.

You may change your guess any time until cutoff which is on block 16053 16056. This is the middle block in the longest day, the day before the drop (defined as target of 6 blocks per hour*24). Then every valid guess will be quoted here in this thread by me (or the other contributors Bicknellski or Galambo, from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=146217.0)

You can follow the progress of new blocks on  http://www.cryptocoinexplorer.com:4750/chain/Freicoin (http://www.cryptocoinexplorer.com:4750/chain/Freicoin)

We already entered the longest day GMT 2013-02-28 09:40:09, and a new Freicoin day of reasonable hash-rate is beckoning!

My guess(the one and only - I will not alter it, please quote me on that)(THIS is the last one; a realistic one...) :

1362279600 - Sun, 03 Mar 2013 03:00:00 GMT

1364007600 -  Sat, 23 Mar 2013 03:00:00 GMT

As I pledged in the other thread 500 FRC coming from me.

My guess:

BLOCK 16128 will be solved at 2013-03-25 12:48:19 GMT
BLOCK 16128 will be solved at Epoch timestamp: 1364215699

New Revised Guess for BLOCK 16128:

Epoch timestamp: 1364463411
Human time (GMT): Thu, 28 Mar 2013 09:36:51 GMT
Human time (my time zone): 28/3/2013 16:36:51

Preferable: Never.

Why not try to get yourself a few thousand freis? You might be sorry some day, when you need them to be able to make ripples in your belly-flab.. 8)

Because freicoin isn't "free" it's taxed by 80%. I was a vocal supporter of this project till this point, like 90%+ of people here.
It's a pump&dump scam, ala solidcoin just worse in its execution.

1362411969 - Mon, 04 Mar 2013 15:46:09 GMT


I will lose. I guessed too early. :D :) oops

Okay let's guess:

1363958355 -epoch
Fri, 22 Mar 2013 13:19:15 GMT

Lol, yeah I remember how excited where you all about demurrage, Gesell and free-money (freigeld).
If it wasn't for that non-mining thing...

Wooot! No new blocks in 9 hours??? Well, Freicoin will soldier on anywayz.

Here is an epic sounding march called The longest day - quite good actually: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZ7hYEJt2UY (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZ7hYEJt2UY)

Yes. I agree. It's a convenient excuse for those who wouldn't like the coin anyways. No worries. :)

stop guessing. start mining.

I am! At 60 MH/s :)

Who else is mining?

1.2 MH/s here.

No fuck off, it's a tax to cronies.

Freicoin hasn't even had a give away ala ripple. To be eligible to receive a "grant" I have to be befriend the people who receive the tax. There are no measures taken to make it justifiable in any way, there is neither a democratic process nor a way to judge if somebody is eligible to receive FRC.

Yet. We will have to judge the intentions of the foundation by their actions after the FRC has started to be dispensed. You want to do this by setting up a large organization first, which is by a more cumbersome and slower process. And I welcome you to do so, making a Freicoin 2: this will also be a very interesting experiment.

And I seem to have been a bit overly optimistic with my guess, blockcount currently only 15996. So we have still 57 blocks until to go until cutoff.

You get to change your guess right before the cut off? I suggest you go on the average count over a much longer period.

The idea is good as it will only affect those making the most pessimistic guesses originally, like that of Aturk (and we naturally don´t allow guessing on time before the posting). But this will necessitate a lot of quoting of the tread, so I don´t think it´s practicable.

We are currently on block 16004, so the hashrate has improved a bit lately. But it seems we still have a few days left to adjust our guess before the cutoff...

 

Slow and steady... I am liking my guess.

16020   2013-03-08 00:40:45

Might need to revise my estimate to longer... naw... stay optimistic.

108 Blocks to go.

1365337800 - Sun, 7 Apr 2013 12:30:00 GMT

1362908745 - (Day/Month/Year Style) 10/03/2013 09:45:45 GMT

Block 16030 found   2013-03-11 11:24:34   

98 Blocks to go.

Block 16037 solved at 2013-03-14 04:33:10,

Still time to get your guesses in.

At this rate the network will die lol

April 5th 0:00 UCT

This is the correct format for April 5th 00:00, you might want to edit your entry: Epoch timestamp: 1365120000

We are now 12 blocs from cutoff at block 16056.

The average from when this thread was started is 4.3 blocks per day.

1364005400 -  Sat, 22 Mar 2013 03:00:00 GMT

I don't have a clue. ^^

You are optimistic, and that´s good! But Montana is closer if you use the average since March 1st...

Just wait and see, in a fortnight Freicoin will again be the currency of choice in here for trading DOTA STEAM  :o (whatever that is, a game I think)

DOTA is a game.. "defense of the ancients"

STEAM is a video game platform on Windows developed by Valve Corporation

now you know ;)

Where is your evidence to support that claim?

Considering blocks are being solved I don't see how it is 'dead' nor is it 'dying'.

Might want to think much longer term than what you are now with any alt-coin especially this one.

Just a off-topic note... Steam supports Mac and Linux as well, but, of course, Windows is the majority of users and games to buy.

Well, the hashrate is a lot lower than the initial mining-pump, and there are no news from Freicoin, so to me its dying.

Dying? News?

Blocks being solved. Slowly yes. What news there is you can create yourself simply by posting your own grant proposal... here  http://www.freicoin.org/how-to-present-grant-proposals-t146.html (http://www.freicoin.org/how-to-present-grant-proposals-t146.html) . Other than that not sure what more needs to be relayed. Again... dead mean 0 blocks being solved. Till you get there FRC isn't dead. Merge Mining might be possible in future or as ASICs come online I think FRC might actually be more lucrative as the months go on. I have purchased a few used FPGAs that I will put on FRC as soon as it is no longer possible to earn BTC with them. Again SLOW is not DEAD.

And DYING is not DEAD.

Freicoin is not sitting so pretty at the moment. There is only one buy order in LTC over at the Freicoin exchange.

https://cryptonit.net/exchange/2/6

Two things that have kept Freicoin down is the difficulty and distribution of coins. I get the feeling that the core group behind FRC were not alt-coin miners. Otherwise the key feature of most alt-coins, being that the difficulty is adjusted more regularly, would surely have been incorporated. The 80% distribution of Freicoins by the foundation is always going to freak out the markets. At any point the foundation can release a large number of coins to someone legitimately which could be used in a dump. Regardless of the opportunities this could present to traders this is more likely to scare away investors. I know the 80% foundation coins may have seemed big and clever to the developers, but the rest of the world does not like it. How long can you say that you are right and everyone else is wrong.

Please stay on topic.

We're closing in on the cut-off block, so I'll make my final guess, which is:

Mon, 25 Mar 2013 09:52:15 GMT, Unix: 1364205135

Cutoff in 5 blocks; 9 blocks progress in 24 hours! Last chance to make your guess!

I was advised to change my guess because I made it way too early. I would like to guess


Epoch timestamp: 1364522970
Human time (GMT): Fri, 29 Mar 2013 02:09:30 GMT

i say 25 mar  ;)

Epoch? Read the rules.

2 BLOCKS LEFT BEFORE THE CUT OFF?

Get your guessing in... PROPERLY!

there are only 36 blocks remaining (2%)

Now that I still can I'd like to change my guess, hope that's allowed :)
Epoch timestamp: 1364477050
Human time (GMT): Thu, 28 Mar 2013 13:24:10 GMT

The cut-off block was more than 40 blocks ago, unfortunately.

And here are all guesses quoted as we have reached the cut off (some not valid):

Myself:
1364007600 -  Sat, 23 Mar 2013 03:00:00 GMT

Bicknellski
Epoch timestamp: 1364463411
Human time (GMT): Thu, 28 Mar 2013 09:36:51 GMT
Human time (my time zone): 28/3/2013 16:36:51

Jorgeminator
1364077148 - 2013-03-23 22:19:08 GMT

Atruk
1420021230 - Wed, 31 Dec 2014 10:20:30 GMT

wachtwoord
1363958355 -epoch
Fri, 22 Mar 2013 13:19:15 GMT

SalvorHardin
1365337800 - Sun, 7 Apr 2013 12:30:00 GMT

DarkHyudrA
1362908745 - (Day/Month/Year Style) 10/03/2013 09:45:45 GMT

montana
April 5th 0:00 UCT

Warry
1364005400 -  Sat, 22 Mar 2013 03:00:00 GMT

Jorgeminator
Mon, 25 Mar 2013 09:52:15 GMT, Unix: 1364205135
 
galambo
Epoch timestamp: 1364522970
Human time (GMT): Fri, 29 Mar 2013 02:09:30 GMT

nethead
i say 25 mar  

And the hash-rate is btw excellent: we are now at block 16101! So only 27 more blocks to go before the drop.

The average blocks per day while Bitcoin has been at its all time high is 4.3+ (from 1. March). Anyone mining in that period can safely be assumed as die-hard Freicoiners (and we have even had serious DOS attacks on the main freicoin pool site Coinotron in the same period).

So when the difficulty drops to 1/4 these same miners will generate 17+ blocks per day. But more miners will be attracted by the lower difficulty,  and a conservative estimate is doubling of the hash-rate. Then we have 34+ blocks per day. This block frequency is sufficient for again making the Freicion network practical.  

The hash-rate is really picking up, we are now at 16115!

DarkHyudrA
1362908745 - (Day/Month/Year Style) 10/03/2013 09:45:45 GMT

is winning if this continues: the drop will probably be well before the next guess which is 1363958355 Fri, 22 Mar 2013 13:19:15 UTC

I've put some 2.6Mh on the FRC pool at Coinotron to help :)

Hash: 000000000005109a13676ad8365f5d510b9e766dc03c67f2b738a6d164dbccbf
Difficulty: 2443.03 (Bits: 1b1ad360)
Time: 1363749681 (2013-03-20 03:21:21)

Let me up the prize by 20k FRC to celebrate the drop.

(it would probably be fairer to split the price between the two people who are closest the the actual date from below and above)

also another 5k FRC for the one who mined that block. (179fozsLfBPfg6mvhe63J95ySeANVZWYuM)

Congratulation.  This is much faster than expected, likely due to the renewed interests across all Alt cryptocurrencies, even long dead ones like coiledcoins.  Any idea about the current hash rate of the FRC network, post difficulty drop?

based on the block generation rate, the hashpower must be quite close to the actual difficulty, so it's now at about 6-7 blocks/hour.

16127,*16128*,16129 were mined by the Coinotron pool  :)

I hopped on the pool for a bit to help push it over, I have switched to solo since the difficulty drop.

Then a FRC donation to the pool it is. Who's the operator? stupid question ...

 :D

You can see their pool stats here:

 http://coinotron.com/coinotron/AccountServlet?action=statistics

Freicoin is the last pool listed.

scary stats.

 8) Congrats with the drop to all, contributors and guessers alike!

The hash-rate at Coinotron is very high, I really hope we are not stuck in a Phugoid http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phugoid  (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phugoid) with difficulty overshoots and subsequent dramatic drops...

The winner appears to be


wachtwoord
1363958355 -epoch
Fri, 22 Mar 2013 13:19:15 GMT


Please post an address or PM address, thanks.

No,

Rules: Only guesses that are before (or on) the time of the drop will be valid...
Real winner is:

DarkHyudrA
1362908745 - (Day/Month/Year Style) 10/03/2013 09:45:45 GMT

Both please post an address. I'll split the celebration award accordingly.

PM me with your FRC addy... so we can settle up.

Galambo has send me 2500 FRC even though he had to pay out twice (two winners). He could have split the reward but didn't Thanks!  :)

PM'ed the other two pledgers.

So, I won or not?

You two, send me a PM with a valid FRC address. I'll send you 10k FRC each.

I accidentally pmed this guy thinking he won to contest, but I didn't understand the rules were backwards from what I thought they would be.


DarkHyudrA - please post your FRC address so we can pay out. Thank you!

Here it is:
1DbnisnWCqX49d47f5MoKcd1mPLn7wD9p8

Thank you, sir :)

Ok, your coin has been sent too. That was a good game I hope we don't have to do it again. :)

So DarkHyudrA GRATZ!

Please check you have received the 500 from me.

Transaction ID: 5c6fd17702add9a07a3de135cf00c93a1862e82b378c66afd752e4c93557d544

Feel FREE to give me a positive OTC rating as well... ;) I need to get my OTC UP!  http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratingdetail.php?nick=Bicknellski

Thank you ^^
My bad, I don't use the OTC as long as I don't have a pc running linux

It works very well on Windows too, just use openSSH.

Again, thanks galambo and Jutarul for handing out FRC to me even though it isn't so certain I actually won! (I didn't, if you read the rules carefully)

No worries... enjoy the Coins... long live the FREICOIN!

another 2.5k coming up from me, if you don´t want like 0.25 btc instead... I know, it is a slightly indecent proposal in this context... But a lot of FRC is fling around here, so...

Well, if you're running low on FRC I'll accept the BTC.
Not the best decent proposal, but I can't complain too much since I won a free fair game and your offer has a decent amount of value ^^

My BTC address: 1zw7mgGezJ5pKAhXyHKosYKjqYWCyBkUB

Don´t feel compelled to accept. If you rather want the FRC I´ll send those off. But my FRC stash is rotting badly in this new all to high hash-rate; I am a bit spooked by it,actually  :o

BTW: Have you changed your opinion on the future of Freicoin? Your posts before the drop were a bit negative...

Sorry for it seeing so negative, I try to be only realist, instead of spooked I'm excited to see this reborn of Freicon, his concept is very nice(I just don't agree with 80% to the foundantion).
But as I already said, if you are running low don't hesitate to send the Bitcoins, no problem at all.