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Alternate cryptocurrencies => Altcoin Discussion => Topic started by: wizzard0 on June 11, 2011, 07:25:39 AM



Title: (Closed for Maintenance) Mining Profitability Chart
Post by: wizzard0 on June 11, 2011, 07:25:39 AM
2012-01-06: Closed for maintenance

2011-09-25: Added IXCoin, I0Coin, SolidCoin
2011-06-27: MtGox is back, bugs fixed, chart is back again, too :D


I've got tired of http://bitcoin.atspace.com/income.html (since it only works once a day for me), and made my own :)

See http://tvori.info/bitcoin/charts/ . Suggestions welcome.

Displayed data:
* Historical profit chart (BTC, NMC)
* Last week profit chart

* current profit (All currencies)
* projected profit (accounts for next difficulty increase)

Data sources:
* BlockExplorer
* Bitcoin prices/profits: MtGox / BitcoinCharts (whichever ticker works at the time)
* Namecoin: Bitparking Exchange + MtGox.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: Phil21 on June 11, 2011, 07:51:54 AM
I like it!

However, this math doesn't quite add up to me...

Currently, 100 MH would give you 0,17728007 BTC/day. At rate $21,70 per BTC this gets you $3,8470/day

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get $3800/day for 100MH, but I don't think that is correct ;)

-Phil


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: wizzard0 on June 11, 2011, 07:56:04 AM
Currently, 100 MH would give you 0,17728007 BTC/day. At rate $21,70 per BTC this gets you $3,8470/day

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get $3800/day for 100MH, but I don't think that is correct ;)

-Phil

Hmm, there were commas in place of decimal points. Fixed.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: minerX on June 11, 2011, 08:40:15 AM
Currently, 100 MH would give you 0,17728007 BTC/day. At rate $21,70 per BTC this gets you $3,8470/day

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get $3800/day for 100MH, but I don't think that is correct ;)

-Phil

Hmm, there were commas in place of decimal points. Fixed.

Very cool.  I would have assumed decimals anyhow. :)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: BombaUcigasa on June 11, 2011, 10:57:04 AM
Green line: profit (linear scale)
Orange line: MtGox price (log scale)
   

OBJECTION!


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: wizzard0 on June 11, 2011, 04:27:28 PM
Green line: profit (linear scale)
Orange line: MtGox price (log scale)
OBJECTION!

I doesn't really makes sense to compare then, so I don't see problem with different scales. Do you?


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: BombaUcigasa on June 11, 2011, 04:35:16 PM
Green line: profit (linear scale)
Orange line: MtGox price (log scale)
OBJECTION!

I doesn't really makes sense to compare then, so I don't see problem with different scales. Do you?
Well profit is part of a price... and I would be happy if you used either linear or log scale (possibly log to accommodate them both)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: wizzard0 on June 11, 2011, 04:52:47 PM
I don't feel the log scale profit reflects the true volatility of mining. Will make mtgox linear, too.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: Sukrim on June 11, 2011, 04:57:04 PM
I'm only really interested in the profit part anyways...  ;)

Nice work so far, let's see how this will still be improved!

/bookmarked

Edit:
Check out code.google.com/apis/chart/ for example... maybe it'll help you?


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: ocharry on June 11, 2011, 05:03:23 PM
Currently, 100 MH would give you 0,17728007 BTC/day. At rate $21,70 per BTC this gets you $3,8470/day

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get $3800/day for 100MH, but I don't think that is correct ;)

-Phil

Hmm, there were commas in place of decimal points. Fixed.

Europeans use commas at the decimal point.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: wizzard0 on June 11, 2011, 05:15:07 PM
* Changed mtgox price to linear scale
* added (somewhat scary) next difficulty-based profit estimate

Also, yes, in Ukraine we use commas too, but I'm too lazy to make dynamically-generated page for different languages/countries :)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: BombaUcigasa on June 11, 2011, 09:22:06 PM
* Changed mtgox price to linear scale
* added (somewhat scary) next difficulty-based profit estimate

Also, yes, in Ukraine we use commas too, but I'm too lazy to make dynamically-generated page for different languages/countries :)

There is a weird portion in the graph where the price is below the profit line. Is it something wrong with the data?


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: bcpokey on June 11, 2011, 09:28:01 PM
God no... not more of this stuff. Profitability charts are based on the concept that you can predict the future, which you can't even come close.

@$30/BTC your chart would never have predicted a huge drop to $13/BTC. People would be crying salty tears based on a $30 projection that suddenly halved.

EDIT: Sorry you are only looking at current month and predicted next difficulty. Not so bad. Thumbs up to you then.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: neijek.bit on June 11, 2011, 09:41:47 PM
sorry might sound quite "stupid" but as the difficulty scales go up (meaning less bitcoins are generated per mh/s) would it not cause by default, an increase of value of BTC as they become more "rare" or "harder" to "produce"?


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: Sukrim on June 11, 2011, 09:54:22 PM
sorry might sound quite "stupid" but as the difficulty scales go up (meaning less bitcoins are generated per mh/s) would it not cause by default, an increase of value of BTC as they become more "rare" or "harder" to "produce"?
Only if the rate that people buy BTC keeps up with the rate BTC are generated.
If there is more demand than ~7200 new BTC/day (plus what old miners are selling from their stashes, so maybe ~8000 BTC/day for a while still) price will go up, if there is less, price will go down.

Difficulty wil FOLLOW price (as it might get unprofitable to mine at some points) but not vice versa - a merchant will nearly ALWAYS see ~7000-7500 BTC per day generated regardless of difficulty (and this is the only thing that drives price) unless a lot of miners quit at the same time.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: hoo2jalu on June 11, 2011, 10:38:24 PM
Green line: profit (linear scale)
Orange line: MtGox price (log scale)
   
OBJECTION!

Sssh, that's supposed to be sekrit. Look at that exponential return on investment instead!


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: Sukrim on June 11, 2011, 11:46:24 PM
Ah, and another question:
Where do you get this data from?

I guess from bitcoincharts.com... right?


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: wizzard0 on June 12, 2011, 03:25:15 AM
There is a weird portion in the graph where the price is below the profit line. Is it something wrong with the data?

1) Price and profit does not use the same scale
2) At the very beginning of the graph, there is portion where MtGox price is not available, the profit line reflects this while the price line does not :) I may cut it off in the future though.

Ah, and another question:
Where do you get this data from?

I guess from bitcoincharts.com... right?
Bitcoincharts, blockexplorer, mtgox.

Profitability charts are based on the concept that you can predict the future, which you can't even come close.

@$30/BTC your chart would never have predicted a huge drop to $13/BTC. People would be crying salty tears based on a $30 projection that suddenly halved.

EDIT: Sorry you are only looking at current month and predicted next difficulty. Not so bad. Thumbs up to you then.
Well, this isnt meant to be a "prediction chart", but a historical chart. I completely agree with you about predictions based solely on tickers, yes)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: wizzard0 on June 12, 2011, 03:26:36 AM
Ah, and another question:
Where do you get this data from?

I guess from bitcoincharts.com... right?
Oh BTW, do you know of any historical data of NMC/BTC tickers?


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: wizzard0 on June 12, 2011, 05:26:00 AM
Update: Now with Namecoin ( http://dot-bit.org/ ) data!

Can't find historical namecoin data though, started to collect on my own...


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: jhansen858 on June 12, 2011, 05:33:35 AM
this happens to mining in 1000 more blocks.

Difficulty Factor   817583.785486
Hash Rate (mega-hashes / second)   : 600
Exchange Rate ($/฿): $10.00

Coins   Dollars
per Day   ฿0.74   $7.38
per Week   ฿5.38   $53.82
per Month   ฿22.44   $224.39


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: wizzard0 on June 12, 2011, 05:45:07 AM
Difficulty Factor   817583.785486

per Month   ฿22.44   $224.39

Yep. I wonder what all those people will do with their 2-3k$ rigs now :D

The Namecoin predicted difficulty jump stands out even more)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: Sukrim on June 12, 2011, 09:32:50 AM
Dude! Putting Namecoin in there will only make the NMC economy (and hash rate) explode like there's no tomorrow! :-[

It is a TINY network, compared to BTC at the moment and what's worse: I don't know of any exchange where you can sell Namecoin for USD! Giving the BTC value in USD for NMC is a bit misleading - please at least state that you'd get x BTC for 100MH/s mining Namecoins wich would then be worth y USD on MtGox.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: wizzard0 on June 12, 2011, 12:35:16 PM
make the NMC economy (and hash rate) explode like there's no tomorrow! :-[
Can't think of any sensible hurt that the influx of miners might do to namecoin (name squatting? don't make me laugh)
Although if I'm missing something - please explain.

I don't know of any exchange where you can sell Namecoin for USD!
I know https://exchange.bitparking.com/ . What's wrong with NMC->BTC->USD?

Giving the BTC value in USD for NMC is a bit misleading - please at least state that you'd get x BTC for 100MH/s mining Namecoins wich would then be worth y USD on MtGox.
Well, I should probably mention about mining pool fees, mtgox fee, variance, lost/stale/invalid/orphaned blocks and all such things then... It would get over-complicated and would resemble a big pile of legaleze, which I don't really want. That's what Wiki is for.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: Sukrim on June 12, 2011, 12:44:11 PM
I don't know of any exchange where you can sell Namecoin for USD!
I know https://exchange.bitparking.com/ . What's wrong with NMC->BTC->USD?
Until you have your BTC from biparking in your account and then on MtGox or on another exchange it'll take 1-2 hours. Currently 2 hours make a difference of ~5 USD/BTC! ;)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: wizzard0 on June 14, 2011, 01:26:03 PM
Update: MtGox stats (and all currency calculations) were screwed. Fixed.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: Sukrim on June 14, 2011, 04:45:09 PM
The Namecoin difficulty seems to come from a website that is down, hm?

"If you decide to go after Namecoin instead, the numbers would look as following:
Infinity NMC/day, 0.0400 NMC/BTC ($0.7616 per NMC), and $Infinity/day.
After next Namecoin diff update: Infinity NMC/day and $Infinity/day."

I'M GOING TO BE INFINITIVELY RICH, BABY! ;D


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart #2
Post by: wizzard0 on June 14, 2011, 11:46:42 PM
The Namecoin difficulty seems to come from a website that is down, hm?

"If you decide to go after Namecoin instead, the numbers would look as following:
Infinity NMC/day, 0.0400 NMC/BTC ($0.7616 per NMC), and $Infinity/day.
After next Namecoin diff update: Infinity NMC/day and $Infinity/day."

I'M GOING TO BE INFINITIVELY RICH, BABY! ;D

Oh, you catched a moment when I was updating the code :)

So, the update:

- Split charts to "last week" and "all time"
- Added namecoin difficulty/price/profit.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: Sukrim on June 15, 2011, 07:30:25 AM
Suggestion:
Add some horizontal lines every 1 USD, a bold one every 5


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: tealover on June 16, 2011, 02:26:20 PM
Love your chart, but it stopped updating! :( Fix in progress?


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: wizzard0 on June 16, 2011, 02:57:35 PM
Love your chart, but it stopped updating! :( Fix in progress?
Oh shi %)

Apparently the updating job died while I was not attending it. Thank you!


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: tealover on June 16, 2011, 03:23:24 PM
Your welcome and thanks for giving me credit on your charts page that was unexpected :)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: Beremat on June 16, 2011, 10:02:06 PM
Thanks for this! All I have to do now is check your charts to see if it's worth it more to mine nmc or btc.

Right now it's showing 0.000 for all profits. I assume that's because one of the MtGox price thingies is messed up, right?


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: wizzard0 on June 16, 2011, 10:16:47 PM
Thanks for this! All I have to do now is check your charts to see if it's worth it more to mine nmc or btc.

Right now it's showing 0.000 for all profits. I assume that's because one of the MtGox price thingies is messed up, right?

Previously, MtGox was outputting garbage instead of tickers. Now BitcoinCharts was down for maintenance.

Now I query both MtGox and BitcoinCharts and hope one of them works :D

Suggestion:
Add some horizontal lines every 1 USD, a bold one every 5

Done that :)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: Beremat on June 16, 2011, 11:17:41 PM
This is great. I assume the address on the bottom (1NpcrLukTvASg38sbTeUMshkySTLm7FW41) is a bitcoin, not a namecoin address, right? I just want to make sure before I make a donation.

Also, here's how you can make the chart scroll automatically to the right. It's a dirty script, but it works.

Code:
<script type="text/javascript">

function scrollDiv()
{
var el;
if ((el = document.getElementById('historydiv'))
&& ('undefined' != typeof el.scrollLeft))
{
el.scrollLeft = 0;
el.scrollLeft = 5000;
}
}

window.onload = scrollDiv;

</script>

Name the div with the history chart 'historydiv'.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: wizzard0 on June 16, 2011, 11:52:05 PM
This is great. I assume the address on the bottom (1NpcrLukTvASg38sbTeUMshkySTLm7FW41) is a bitcoin, not a namecoin address, right? I just want to make sure before I make a donation.
Yes, it's bitcoin. Thanks!

Also, here's how you can make the chart scroll automatically to the right. It's a dirty script, but it works.
It works! So we finally have autoscroll :) Thanks again!


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: Sukrim on June 17, 2011, 12:18:08 AM
The Mtgox prices seem to be on a different scale (on the upper chart).

As they are anyways just a differently wheighted version of the profit charts, maybe you could get rid of them in the upper chart anyways? (Namecoin price - not profit - too)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: wizzard0 on June 17, 2011, 12:22:29 AM
The Mtgox prices seem to be on a different scale (on the upper chart).

As they are anyways just a differently wheighted version of the profit charts, maybe you could get rid of them in the upper chart anyways? (Namecoin price - not profit - too)
Prices are using other scale than profits. I'm considering either to split them (because they're not really related), or to rescale.

Also, they aren't simply weighted, profit=price/difficulty, and difficulty changes over time :)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: Sukrim on June 17, 2011, 12:26:31 AM
Difficulty changes not even every week (well, in Namecoin it does currently ;) ), so having it on a weekly chart might be a bit much, as there would be max. 2 different difficulties (and you can see the jump anyways clearly)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: wizzard0 on June 17, 2011, 12:40:02 AM
Difficulty changes not even every week (well, in Namecoin it does currently ;) ), so having it on a weekly chart might be a bit much, as there would be max. 2 different difficulties (and you can see the jump anyways clearly)
You misunderstood me.

1. Difficulty is already only on historical graph
2. Look at the namecoin graph zigzags and you'll see that there's not much sense plotting prices and profits on the same scale. I think I'm gonna split them into 2 charts.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: Sukrim on June 17, 2011, 01:17:48 AM
Also, they aren't simply weighted, profit=price/difficulty, and difficulty changes over time :)
I was referring to this statement above - on a 1 week chart, they actually would be just weighted (maybe with a single change in the [invisible] weighting number that travels over the chart and disappears) most of the time.

In the long chart it might be interesting, in the short version it only adds clutter imho.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: irishmick on June 19, 2011, 12:28:28 AM
You're probably aware of this but if not your chart does not seem to be updating mtgox price.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: wizzard0 on June 19, 2011, 12:32:37 PM
You're probably aware of this but if not your chart does not seem to be updating mtgox price.

The chart is correct; the numbers however are not. Fix is underway. Thanks for your feedback)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: wizzard0 on June 27, 2011, 01:49:59 AM
Well, MtGox is back, bugs fixed, chart is back again, too :D


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: Stephen Gornick on June 27, 2011, 10:02:13 AM
Well, MtGox is back, bugs fixed, chart is back again, too :D

Would there be a way to make the chart easier to understand by only showing bitcoin (and not including any lines or references to Namecoin ?)

Even if it is a form with a checkbox perhaps?


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: ahitman on August 03, 2011, 08:46:44 PM
Looks like the mtgox prices aren't coming through again, is it possible to include a box to type in the variables manually if they don't come through automatically?

Otherwise, cool chart, great for comparing Bitcoin and Namecoin! Thanks.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin and Namecoin)
Post by: wizzard0 on September 25, 2011, 01:59:43 PM
Added IXCoin, I0Coin and SolidCoin profitability comparison.

Will make separate bitcoin-only page next :)


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin, Namecoin, IX, I0, SolidCoin)
Post by: mpfrank on January 06, 2012, 12:04:01 AM
There seems to be something wrong with your chart.  The MtGox price numbers are about 10x too small, and all the other traces are smushed flat near the bottom of the chart.  And I can only see two of them.  Does each of them need its own vertical scale, perhaps?  Also there are lots of 0, Infinity and NaN values in your data below the chart.


Title: Re: Mining Profitability Chart (Bitcoin, Namecoin, IX, I0, SolidCoin)
Post by: wizzard0 on January 06, 2012, 05:50:27 PM
There seems to be something wrong with your chart.  The MtGox price numbers are about 10x too small, and all the other traces are smushed flat near the bottom of the chart.  And I can only see two of them.  Does each of them need its own vertical scale, perhaps?  Also there are lots of 0, Infinity and NaN values in your data below the chart.

Oh, I totally need to update the ticker scraping code >_<

Thanks for noticing, it always breaks when I pay least attention to it.


Title: Re: (Closed for Maintenance) Mining Profitability Chart
Post by: wizzard0 on June 09, 2021, 08:43:47 AM
(offtopic) such memories... all this was 9 years ago omg.


Title: Re: (Closed for Maintenance) Mining Profitability Chart
Post by: Sukrim on June 09, 2021, 09:48:15 AM
Longest maintenance ever! ;D